COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2020-03-18


Disclaimer

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, Magdalen College, or any other University of Oxford institute.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. The documentation that is provided is still in progress and not peer reviewed. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but it seems that our forecasts need slightly less frequent updating.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times. This seems to be a day behind the Johns Hopkins data.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. Again: no other epidemiological data is used.
  • We will probably revise or update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks.
  • Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • We will probably revise or update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks.
  • Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecasted, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references, but is still preliminary.

Confirmed count forecast average (bold black line in graphs) 2020-03-19 to 2020-03-23

DateUKEUATBEBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRIEITNLPLPTROSESINOCH
2020-03-18 2626 82238 1646 1486 488 464 12327 1057 13910 336 9043 418 292 35713 2051 251 448 260 1279 275 1550 3028
2020-03-19 3180 98000 1980 1740 630 570 15100 1120 16800 400 10800 490 360 40800 2400 310 560 310 1380 310 1670 3660
2020-03-20 3700 118000 2350 1990 810 680 18100 1190 20600 500 12500 560 430 47000 2720 380 690 360 1510 360 1860 4470
2020-03-21 4320 141000 2790 2270 1060 820 21700 1270 25100 640 14600 650 510 54100 3090 460 850 410 1650 420 2070 5450
2020-03-22 5060 169000 3310 2600 1380 990 26200 1350 30600 810 17100 760 610 62300 3520 560 1050 470 1810 490 2310 6620
2020-03-23 5940 201000 3930 2980 1810 1190 31600 1440 37200 1020 20000 880 730 71700 4020 680 1290 550 1990 570 2590 8040

Confirmed count forecast average (bold black line in graphs) 2020-03-19 to 2020-03-23

DateAustraliaBrazilCanadaIranMalaysiaUS
2020-03-18 568 372 657 17361 790 7783
2020-03-19 680 470 820 18900 970 9500
2020-03-20 780 550 980 20800 1200 11400
2020-03-21 910 660 1160 22900 1490 13600
2020-03-22 1050 780 1390 25200 1840 16300
2020-03-23 1210 940 1670 27800 2290 19600

Confirmed count forecast (bold red line in graphs) 2020-03-19 to 2020-03-23

DateUKEUATBEBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRIEITNLPLPTROSESINOCH
2020-03-18 2626 82238 1646 1486 488 464 12327 1057 13910 336 9043 418 292 35713 2051 251 448 260 1279 275 1550 3028
2020-03-19 3090 99000 1910 1750 700 540 14000 1110 16800 330 11000 520 350 40900 2430 310 610 270 1180 300 1410 3880
2020-03-20 3730 118000 2220 2030 990 610 16600 1180 20000 330 13100 590 430 46600 2840 360 740 300 1170 320 1380 4610
2020-03-21 4500 139000 2570 2360 1400 700 19700 1240 23600 340 15500 680 510 52900 3310 420 890 330 1150 350 1350 5450
2020-03-22 5400 164000 2970 2720 1970 800 23300 1310 27800 340 18400 780 610 60200 3850 480 1070 360 1150 370 1330 6430
2020-03-23 6480 193000 3420 3150 2760 900 27600 1390 32700 350 21800 890 730 68500 4470 550 1270 400 1140 390 1300 7590

Confirmed count forecast (bold red line in graphs) 2020-03-19 to 2020-03-23

DateAustraliaBrazilCanadaIranMalaysiaUS
2020-03-18 568 372 657 17361 790 7783
2020-03-19 690 480 860 18600 1000 9300
2020-03-20 820 580 1090 20000 1220 11100
2020-03-21 970 700 1380 21500 1480 13300
2020-03-22 1150 840 1720 23200 1770 15800
2020-03-23 1350 1000 2150 25100 2110 18800

Initial visual evaluation of forecasts of Confirmed