COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2020-03-22


Disclaimer

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, Magdalen College, or any other University of Oxford institute.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. The documentation that is provided is still in progress and not peer reviewed. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but it seems that our forecasts need slightly less frequent updating.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times. This seems to be a day behind the Johns Hopkins data.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. Again: no other epidemiological data is used.
  • We will probably revise or update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks.
  • Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • We will probably revise or update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks.
  • Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecasted, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references, but is still preliminary.

Confirmed count forecast average (bold black line in graphs) 2020-03-23 to 2020-03-27

DateUKEUATBEBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRIEITNLPLPTROSESINOCH
2020-03-22 5683 151668 3244 3401 1255 1120 24873 1395 28768 626 16018 624 254 906 59138 4204 634 1600 433 1934 414 2383 7245
2020-03-23 6800 176000 3720 4070 1490 1290 29300 1480 33400 690 18500 710 310 1130 67000 4880 740 1960 480 2100 450 2610 8500
2020-03-24 8100 207000 4250 4760 1750 1530 35200 1580 38700 740 21800 790 350 1430 76000 5610 840 2400 540 2290 480 2790 10000
2020-03-25 9600 243000 4870 5550 2060 1810 42300 1680 45000 800 25500 890 410 1790 87000 6460 960 2930 600 2480 520 2990 11700
2020-03-26 11400 286000 5570 6490 2450 2140 50700 1790 52300 870 29900 1000 470 2250 100000 7440 1110 3590 680 2700 570 3200 13700
2020-03-27 13500 335000 6380 7590 2940 2540 60800 1910 60800 950 35100 1130 540 2820 114000 8570 1270 4400 770 2940 620 3430 16100

Confirmed count forecast average (bold black line in graphs) 2020-03-23 to 2020-03-27

DateAustraliaBrazilCanadaIranMalaysiaPhilippinesSouth AfricaUS
2020-03-22 1314 1593 1465 21638 1306 380 274 33272
2020-03-23 1560 1970 1740 23000 1460 440 330 43000
2020-03-24 1780 2330 2050 24900 1640 480 400 54000
2020-03-25 2030 2780 2400 27000 1850 530 490 68000
2020-03-26 2320 3320 2820 29200 2090 590 590 85000
2020-03-27 2660 3990 3320 31600 2360 650 720 107000

Confirmed count forecast (bold red line in graphs) 2020-03-23 to 2020-03-27

DateUKEUATBEBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRIEITNLPLPTROSESINOCH
2020-03-22 5683 151668 3244 3401 1255 1120 24873 1395 28768 626 16018 624 254 906 59138 4204 634 1600 433 1934 414 2383 7245
2020-03-23 6700 172000 3630 4500 1260 1190 28100 1500 31800 630 18900 790 310 1130 65600 4770 700 1770 440 2130 370 2670 8000
2020-03-24 7700 195000 4090 5500 1260 1290 31700 1620 35700 680 21800 950 380 1330 73000 5410 790 1990 460 2360 360 3000 8900
2020-03-25 9000 221000 4610 6800 1250 1390 35600 1740 40000 750 25000 1130 460 1560 81000 6130 880 2250 490 2600 350 3370 9800
2020-03-26 10300 250000 5190 8200 1250 1510 40000 1880 44900 820 28700 1330 560 1810 90000 6930 990 2530 530 2870 350 3790 10900
2020-03-27 11900 283000 5830 10000 1250 1640 45000 2030 50500 890 33000 1570 680 2100 99900 7850 1110 2840 560 3170 340 4250 12000

Confirmed count forecast (bold red line in graphs) 2020-03-23 to 2020-03-27

DateAustraliaBrazilCanadaIranMalaysiaPhilippinesSouth AfricaUS
2020-03-22 1314 1593 1465 21638 1306 380 274 33272
2020-03-23 1570 1780 1690 23100 1340 430 320 44000
2020-03-24 1860 2120 1930 24600 1430 480 360 57000
2020-03-25 2200 2550 2220 26300 1520 550 410 73000
2020-03-26 2590 3030 2540 28100 1630 620 450 93000
2020-03-27 3050 3610 2900 30100 1740 700 510 119000

Initial visual evaluation of forecasts of Confirmed