COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2020-03-30


Disclaimer

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. The documentation that is provided is still in progress and not peer reviewed. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.

Moderation of forecast

[2020-03-24] Our forecasts are starting to overestimate in some cases. This was always expected to happen when the increase starts to slow down. Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, but only for Italy and Spain sofar.
[2020-03-26] Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, only for Italy.
[2020-03-29] Now including some US States, based on New York Times data.
[2020-03-31] Scenario forecasts, based on what happened in China earlier this year, are presented for several countries (line marked with +). Created more plausible 90% confidence bands (dotted line in same colour).

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but it seems that our forecasts need slightly less frequent updating.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. Again: no other epidemiological data is used.
  • We will probably revise or update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks.
  • Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • We will probably revise or update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks.
  • Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecasted, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references, but is still preliminary.

Confirmed count forecast average (bold black line in graphs) 2020-03-31 to 2020-04-04

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
2020-03-30 22141 366693 9618 11899 359 3194 3001 66885 2577 87956 1352 44550 1212 790 447 2910 101739 11750 2055 6408 2109 4028 756 336 4445 15922
2020-03-31 25300 404000 10400 13500 380 3440 3270 73000 2770 98000 1460 49500 1300 860 490 3210 107000 12900 2270 7100 2400 4370 800 360 4730 17000
2020-04-01 28800 452000 11400 15200 400 3740 3600 82000 2970 110000 1570 55600 1390 920 540 3500 113000 14300 2490 8000 2700 4740 850 380 5100 18300
2020-04-02 32700 506000 12500 17100 430 4080 3950 91000 3190 123000 1690 62400 1490 990 590 3830 119000 15900 2730 9000 3030 5130 910 410 5500 19600
2020-04-03 37200 566000 13700 19300 450 4440 4350 101000 3420 138000 1810 70100 1600 1070 650 4190 126000 17600 2990 10100 3400 5570 970 430 5930 21100
2020-04-04 42400 632000 15000 21700 480 4840 4780 113000 3670 155000 1950 78700 1720 1150 710 4580 133000 19400 3280 11300 3820 6030 1030 460 6390 22700

Confirmed count forecast average (bold black line in graphs) 2020-03-31 to 2020-04-04

DateAustraliaBrazilCanadaIranMalaysiaPhilippinesSouth AfricaUSUS-CAUS-DCUS-NJUS-NYUS-WA
2020-03-30 4361 4579 7398 41495 2626 1546 1326 161807 7421 495 16636 67174 5179
2020-03-31 4800 4980 8400 45200 2810 1780 1420 187000 8500 550 19600 75000 5710
2020-04-01 5270 5430 9400 49300 3020 1980 1580 216000 9700 600 22600 84000 6310
2020-04-02 5780 5900 10600 53900 3240 2210 1750 249000 11000 650 26100 93000 6980
2020-04-03 6340 6430 11800 58800 3480 2460 1950 288000 12500 700 30100 104000 7720
2020-04-04 6960 7000 13300 64300 3730 2760 2170 334000 14300 760 34800 117000 8540

Confirmed count forecast (bold red line in graphs) 2020-03-31 to 2020-04-04

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
2020-03-30 22141 366693 9618 11899 359 3194 3001 66885 2577 87956 1352 44550 1212 790 447 2910 101739 11750 2055 6408 2109 4028 756 336 4445 15922
2020-03-31 25200 404000 10400 13200 380 3410 3220 71700 2750 97000 1430 49200 1270 840 470 3190 107000 12800 2170 6900 2410 4330 780 360 4700 16700
2020-04-01 28600 444000 11300 14600 400 3640 3460 77800 2950 107000 1530 54600 1340 900 500 3500 112000 14100 2340 7450 2740 4680 820 390 4980 17800
2020-04-02 32400 488000 12200 16200 420 3890 3720 84500 3170 118000 1640 60300 1420 960 540 3840 117000 15400 2510 8050 3120 5050 850 410 5260 18800
2020-04-03 36600 536000 13300 17900 440 4160 4000 91900 3400 131000 1750 66600 1500 1030 570 4220 122000 16800 2710 8710 3530 5460 890 440 5580 20100
2020-04-04 41400 588000 14400 19700 470 4450 4300 100000 3650 145000 1880 73600 1580 1110 610 4630 128000 18400 2910 9410 4000 5900 930 470 5910 21400

Confirmed count forecast (bold red line in graphs) 2020-03-31 to 2020-04-04

DateAustraliaBrazilCanadaIranMalaysiaPhilippinesSouth AfricaUSUS-CAUS-DCUS-NJUS-NYUS-WA
2020-03-30 4361 4579 7398 41495 2626 1546 1326 161807 7421 495 16636 67174 5179
2020-03-31 4720 4860 8300 45200 2820 1760 1420 184000 8500 520 19700 74000 5510
2020-04-01 5160 5190 9500 49200 3020 1980 1540 211000 9600 600 23300 82000 5880
2020-04-02 5620 5530 10700 53600 3250 2240 1650 242000 10900 670 27500 90000 6280
2020-04-03 6130 5910 12100 58400 3490 2510 1780 278000 12400 760 32400 100000 6710
2020-04-04 6690 6320 13700 63700 3750 2830 1920 321000 14100 850 38100 110000 7170

Initial visual evaluation of forecasts of Confirmed