COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2020-03-31


Disclaimer

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. The documentation that is provided is still in progress and not peer reviewed. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.

Moderation of forecast

[2020-03-24] Our forecasts are starting to overestimate in some cases. This was always expected to happen when the increase starts to slow down. Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, but only for Italy and Spain sofar.
[2020-03-26] Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, only for Italy.
[2020-03-29] Now including some US States, based on New York Times data.
[2020-03-31] Scenario forecasts, based on what happened in China earlier this year, are presented for several countries (line marked with +). Created more plausible 90% confidence bands (dotted line in same colour).

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but it seems that our forecasts need slightly less frequent updating.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. Again: no other epidemiological data is used.
  • We will probably revise or update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks.
  • Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • We will probably revise or update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks.
  • Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecasted, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references, but is still preliminary.

Confirmed count forecast average (bold black line in graphs) 2020-04-01 to 2020-04-05

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
2020-03-31 25150 396982 10180 12775 399 3460 3308 71808 2860 95923 1418 52128 1314 867 492 3235 105792 12595 2311 7443 2245 4435 802 363 4641 16605
2020-04-01 28500 435000 10900 14200 420 3710 3600 78000 3090 105000 1510 58400 1400 940 540 3550 110000 13700 2560 8300 2500 4810 850 390 4900 17700
2020-04-02 32300 484000 11800 16000 450 4020 3910 87000 3320 117000 1630 65200 1500 1000 590 3870 116000 15200 2810 9100 2790 5220 900 410 5230 18900
2020-04-03 36500 538000 12700 18000 480 4350 4260 96000 3560 130000 1750 72800 1610 1070 640 4210 122000 16700 3090 10100 3100 5650 950 440 5600 20100
2020-04-04 41300 598000 13800 20300 510 4710 4630 106000 3820 145000 1890 81500 1720 1140 700 4590 128000 18400 3400 11200 3460 6130 1010 460 5980 21500
2020-04-05 46700 665000 14900 22800 540 5100 5040 118000 4100 161000 2030 91100 1850 1220 760 5010 134000 20300 3740 12400 3860 6640 1080 490 6400 23000

Confirmed count forecast average (bold black line in graphs) 2020-04-01 to 2020-04-05

DateAustraliaBrazilCanadaIranMalaysiaPhilippinesSouth AfricaUSUS-CAUS-DCUS-NJUS-NYUS-WA
2020-03-31 4559 5717 8527 44605 2766 2084 1353 188172 8582 495 18696 75832 5292
2020-04-01 4950 6350 9600 48400 2940 2420 1420 216000 9800 550 21400 84000 5700
2020-04-02 5430 6910 10800 52800 3150 2710 1510 247000 11000 590 24500 94000 6290
2020-04-03 5960 7530 12000 57500 3380 3040 1610 283000 12500 640 28100 104000 6930
2020-04-04 6540 8200 13400 62800 3620 3420 1720 325000 14100 690 32200 116000 7640
2020-04-05 7170 8950 15000 68500 3870 3850 1840 374000 15900 750 37000 129000 8420

Confirmed count forecast (bold red line in graphs) 2020-04-01 to 2020-04-05

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
2020-03-31 25150 396982 10180 12775 399 3460 3308 71808 2860 95923 1418 52128 1314 867 492 3235 105792 12595 2311 7443 2245 4435 802 363 4641 16605
2020-04-01 28500 428000 10700 13700 420 3700 3570 77000 3080 103000 1510 57800 1380 920 530 3460 110000 13700 2560 8000 2430 4790 850 390 4890 17700
2020-04-02 32300 467000 11400 14800 450 3980 3860 84000 3340 112000 1600 65200 1470 980 580 3740 114000 14900 2840 8700 2620 5210 900 420 5160 18900
2020-04-03 36500 509000 12200 15900 480 4280 4160 91000 3630 122000 1710 73500 1560 1050 620 4050 119000 16200 3140 9500 2830 5660 960 450 5440 20200
2020-04-04 41300 557000 13000 17100 510 4600 4490 98000 3930 134000 1820 83000 1660 1120 680 4390 123000 17700 3470 10400 3050 6160 1010 480 5750 21600
2020-04-05 46800 609000 13800 18400 540 4950 4850 107000 4270 146000 1940 93800 1770 1200 730 4760 128000 19200 3830 11300 3290 6690 1070 510 6070 23100

Confirmed count forecast (bold red line in graphs) 2020-04-01 to 2020-04-05

DateAustraliaBrazilCanadaIranMalaysiaPhilippinesSouth AfricaUSUS-CAUS-DCUS-NJUS-NYUS-WA
2020-03-31 4559 5717 8527 44605 2766 2084 1353 188172 8582 495 18696 75832 5292
2020-04-01 4930 6120 9300 48100 2920 2310 1360 214000 9500 530 19900 84000 5720
2020-04-02 5320 6850 10400 51900 3090 2660 1390 244000 10700 560 21700 93000 6150
2020-04-03 5760 7650 11600 56000 3280 3060 1410 280000 12100 610 23700 103000 6590
2020-04-04 6240 8540 13000 60400 3470 3510 1430 321000 13600 650 25800 115000 7070
2020-04-05 6770 9530 14600 65200 3680 4020 1460 370000 15300 700 28200 128000 7590

Initial visual evaluation of forecasts of Confirmed