COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2020-04-01


Disclaimer

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. The documentation that is provided is still in progress and not peer reviewed. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.

Moderation of forecast

[2020-03-24] Our forecasts are starting to overestimate in some cases. This was always expected to happen when the increase starts to slow down. Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, but only for Italy and Spain sofar.
[2020-03-26] Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, only for Italy.
[2020-03-31] Scenario forecasts, based on what happened in China earlier this year, are presented for several countries (line marked with +). Created more plausible 90% confidence bands (dotted line in same colour).
[2020-04-02] Now including more US States, based on New York Times data. And the world.

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but it seems that our forecasts need slightly less frequent updating.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. Again: no other epidemiological data is used.
  • We will probably revise or update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks.
  • Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • We will probably revise or update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks.
  • Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecasted, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references, but is still preliminary.

Confirmed count forecast average (bold black line in graphs) 2020-04-02 to 2020-04-06

DateUKEUATBEBSCZDEDKESFRIEITNLPLPTROSENOCH
2020-04-01 29474 426761 10711 13964 3679 3508 77872 3107 104118 56989 3447 110574 13614 2554 8251 2460 4947 4863 17768
2020-04-02 33400 466000 11400 15300 3930 3770 85000 3370 114000 63400 3730 115000 14700 2800 9100 2700 5400 5110 18900
2020-04-03 37500 514000 12200 17000 4220 4080 93000 3620 125000 70400 4060 120000 16100 3050 10000 2990 5830 5430 20100
2020-04-04 42000 567000 13100 18900 4530 4410 102000 3890 138000 78300 4420 126000 17700 3320 11000 3310 6310 5770 21400
2020-04-05 47200 625000 14100 21100 4870 4770 112000 4180 151000 87100 4810 131000 19300 3630 12000 3670 6830 6130 22800
2020-04-06 53000 688000 15200 23500 5240 5160 122000 4500 167000 96900 5240 137000 21100 3960 13200 4070 7390 6520 24400

Confirmed count forecast average (bold black line in graphs) 2020-04-02 to 2020-04-06

DateAustraliaBrazilCanadaIranMalaysiaPhilippinesUSUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-FLUS-GAUS-ILUS-LAUS-MAUS-MIUS-NJUS-NYUS-WAWorld
2020-04-01 4862 6836 9560 47593 2908 2311 213372 9816 3346 3557 7765 4748 6980 6424 7738 9293 22255 83889 5588 1243481
2020-04-02 5220 7700 10700 51300 3080 2650 243000 11100 3720 4100 8900 5450 8000 7400 8800 10600 25300 93000 5950 1356000
2020-04-03 5680 8400 12000 55700 3290 2990 277000 12500 4090 4680 10100 6030 9100 8100 9700 11900 28600 102000 6490 1479000
2020-04-04 6180 9200 13300 60500 3510 3390 316000 14100 4510 5350 11400 6680 10400 8900 10800 13300 32200 113000 7060 1611000
2020-04-05 6730 10000 14900 65800 3740 3830 361000 15800 4960 6120 12900 7420 11900 9800 12000 14900 36400 124000 7690 1753000
2020-04-06 7320 10900 16600 71500 3990 4330 413000 17800 5470 7020 14700 8250 13600 10900 13300 16700 41100 137000 8380 1907000

Confirmed count forecast (bold red line in graphs) 2020-04-02 to 2020-04-06

DateUKEUATBEBSCZDEDKESFRIEITNLPLPTROSENOCH
2020-04-01 29474 426761 10711 13964 3679 3508 77872 3107 104118 56989 3447 110574 13614 2554 8251 2460 4947 4863 17768
2020-04-02 32700 466000 11300 15200 3920 3750 84000 3330 112000 61600 3720 115000 14500 2760 9100 2690 5290 5090 18600
2020-04-03 36400 509000 12000 16600 4180 4030 91000 3570 122000 67500 4020 119000 15600 3000 10000 2940 5740 5360 19800
2020-04-04 40400 554000 12700 18100 4470 4320 99000 3840 132000 74000 4330 124000 16700 3260 11100 3210 6230 5630 21000
2020-04-05 44900 604000 13500 19600 4780 4640 107000 4120 143000 81100 4680 128000 18000 3550 12200 3500 6770 5930 22300
2020-04-06 50000 659000 14300 21400 5110 4980 116000 4420 156000 88900 5050 133000 19400 3860 13500 3820 7350 6250 23800

Confirmed count forecast (bold red line in graphs) 2020-04-02 to 2020-04-06

DateAustraliaBrazilCanadaIranMalaysiaPhilippinesUSUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-FLUS-GAUS-ILUS-LAUS-MAUS-MIUS-NJUS-NYUS-WAWorld
2020-04-01 4862 6836 9560 47593 2908 2311 213372 9816 3346 3557 7765 4748 6980 6424 7738 9293 22255 83889 5588 1243481
2020-04-02 5130 7600 10400 51300 3080 2650 242000 10900 3660 3880 8800 5400 8000 7200 8700 10600 24500 92000 5970 1362000
2020-04-03 5490 8500 11500 55300 3280 2990 277000 12200 4020 4240 9900 6160 9100 8300 9800 12200 27500 102000 6380 1481000
2020-04-04 5870 9700 12700 59500 3480 3400 317000 13600 4410 4660 11200 7050 10400 9500 11000 14000 30700 113000 6770 1610000
2020-04-05 6300 10900 14000 64200 3700 3850 366000 15100 4840 5100 12600 8040 11800 10800 12400 16000 34300 125000 7210 1744000
2020-04-06 6760 12400 15500 69200 3940 4350 422000 16900 5310 5580 14200 9170 13400 12300 13900 18300 38300 139000 7680 1889000

Initial visual evaluation of forecasts of Confirmed