COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2020-04-06


Disclaimer

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. The documentation that is provided is still in progress and not peer reviewed. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.

Moderation of forecast

[2020-03-24] Our forecasts are starting to overestimate in some cases. This was always expected to happen when the increase starts to slow down. Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, but only for Italy and Spain sofar.
[2020-03-26] Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, only for Italy.
[2020-03-31] Scenario forecasts, based on what happened in China earlier this year, are presented for several countries (line marked with x). Created more plausible 90% confidence bands (dotted line in same colour).
[2020-04-02] Now including more US States, based on New York Times data. And the world.
[2020-04-06] Added a post hoc estimate of the peak number of cases. This needs at least three confirmed observations (four for deaths) after the event. It is based on the averaged smooth trend, and can change later or be a local peak. It is marked with a vertical line with the date label, or a date with left arrow in the bottom left corner of the graph. This is backported to 2020-04-04.
[2020-04-08] Minor correction to peak estimates. Added table with scenario forecasts.
[2020-04-08] Added table with estimated peak dates (if happened) and dates to and since the peak. Note that this can be a local peak, and subsequent re-acceleration (or data revisions) can result in a new peak later.

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but it seems that our forecasts need slightly less frequent updating.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. Again: no other epidemiological data is used.
  • We will probably revise or update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks.
  • Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • We will probably revise or update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks.
  • Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecasted, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references, but remains preliminary. Also preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Confirmed count average forecast (bold black line in graphs) 2020-04-07 to 2020-04-11

DateUKEUATBEBSCZDEDKESFIFRIEITNLPLPTROSENOCH
2020-04-06 51608 578836 12297 20814 4794 4822 103374 4681 136675 2176 98010 5364 132547 18803 4413 11730 4057 7206 5865 21657
2020-04-07 57200 607000 12600 22100 4970 5040 108000 5060 142000 2360 112000 5800 137000 19800 4840 12400 4400 7620 6030 22400
2020-04-08 63700 639000 12900 23300 5200 5280 113000 5490 149000 2520 130000 6290 141000 20700 5320 13100 4840 8150 6210 23200
2020-04-09 70900 671000 13200 24600 5450 5520 118000 5970 155000 2700 152000 6810 145000 21700 5850 13900 5320 8710 6390 24100
2020-04-10 79000 704000 13500 26000 5700 5770 123000 6480 162000 2890 177000 7380 150000 22700 6430 14700 5850 9310 6570 25000
2020-04-11 88100 737000 13800 27400 5970 6030 129000 7030 169000 3100 208000 8000 154000 23800 7070 15500 6440 9960 6760 25900

Confirmedcount average forecast (bold black line in graphs) 2020-04-07 to 2020-04-11

DateAustraliaBrazilCanadaIranMalaysiaPhilippinesUSUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-FLUS-GAUS-ILUS-LAUS-MAUS-MIUS-NJUS-NYUS-WAWorld
2020-04-06 5797 12161 16563 60500 3793 3660 366614 16284 5172 6906 13621 7558 12262 14867 13837 17130 41090 130703 8384 1817408
2020-04-07 5940 13500 18300 63100 3960 3940 408000 17800 5530 7900 14800 8200 13500 16800 15200 19000 45200 143000 8900 1952000
2020-04-08 6120 15300 20300 66000 4140 4270 461000 19700 5930 9100 16200 8900 15000 19400 16700 21100 49800 158000 9400 2111000
2020-04-09 6300 17300 22600 69100 4330 4620 521000 21800 6350 10400 17700 9700 16600 22300 18300 23500 54700 175000 9900 2280000
2020-04-10 6470 19500 25200 72400 4520 5010 590000 24100 6800 12000 19300 10600 18400 25600 20100 26200 60000 194000 10500 2460000
2020-04-11 6650 22000 28100 75800 4730 5430 667000 26700 7280 13900 21000 11500 20300 29300 22000 29200 65800 215000 11000 2653000

Confirmed count forecast (bold red line in graphs) 2020-04-07 to 2020-04-11

DateUKEUATBEBSCZDEDKESFIFRIEITNLPLPTROSENOCH
2020-04-06 51608 578836 12297 20814 4794 4822 103374 4681 136675 2176 98010 5364 132547 18803 4413 11730 4057 7206 5865 21657
2020-04-07 56800 607000 12500 22000 4950 5030 108000 5050 142000 2400 112000 5820 136000 19800 4800 12300 4310 7560 6020 22400
2020-04-08 62400 635000 12800 23100 5100 5250 112000 5440 148000 2640 126000 6300 140000 20800 5210 12900 4590 7970 6180 23000
2020-04-09 68600 663000 13000 24300 5260 5480 116000 5850 153000 2910 141000 6820 144000 21800 5650 13500 4880 8380 6330 23700
2020-04-10 75500 691000 13300 25500 5430 5710 120000 6290 159000 3200 157000 7380 149000 22800 6130 14100 5190 8820 6480 24500
2020-04-11 83200 720000 13500 26700 5600 5940 124000 6770 164000 3530 176000 7990 153000 24000 6650 14700 5520 9280 6640 25200

Confirmed count scenario forecast (bold green line in graphs) 2020-04-07 to 2020-04-15

DateUKEUATBEDEDKESFRITNLPLPTNOCHUS-WAAustraliaIranMalaysia
2020-04-06 51608 578836 12297 20814 103374 4681 136675 98010 132547 18803 4413 11730 5865 21657 8384 5797 60500 3793
2020-04-07 55700 607000 12600 22200 108000 4930 142000 105000 136000 19700 4740 12300 6040 22300 8800 6050 62600 3920
2020-04-08 59000 630000 13000 23200 112000 5120 148000 112000 140000 20500 5020 12900 6190 22900 9200 6220 64700 4030
2020-04-09 61900 651000 13300 24400 116000 5310 153000 116000 143000 21200 5220 13400 6360 23500 9500 6410 66700 4150
2020-04-10 64600 674000 13700 25800 120000 5500 158000 120000 146000 22000 5440 13900 6520 23900 9800 6590 68700 4240
2020-04-11 67300 693000 14000 26900 124000 5690 163000 122000 149000 22800 5640 14400 6670 24200 10200 6760 70700 4340
2020-04-12 69700 714000 14400 28100 127000 5830 167000 124000 153000 23400 5840 14800 6820 24500 10500 6940 72700 4430
2020-04-13 71900 733000 14600 29300 131000 6010 172000 126000 155000 24200 5980 15300 6960 24700 10800 7140 74800 4520
2020-04-14 74200 750000 15000 30700 135000 6160 177000 128000 158000 25000 6180 15700 7100 24900 11100 7310 76800 4600
2020-04-15 76400 768000 15400 32000 138000 6330 182000 128000 160000 25800 6340 16200 7250 25100 11300 7490 78800 4680

Initial visual evaluation of forecasts of Confirmed