COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2020-04-15


Disclaimer

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. The documentation that is provided is still in progress and not peer reviewed. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.

Recent changes

[2020-03-24] Our forecasts are starting to overestimate in some cases. This was always expected to happen when the increase starts to slow down. Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, but only for Italy and Spain sofar.
[2020-03-26] Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, only for Italy.
[2020-03-31] Scenario forecasts, based on what happened in China earlier this year, are presented for several countries (line marked with x). Created more plausible 90% confidence bands (dotted line in same colour).
[2020-04-02] Now including more US States, based on New York Times data. And the world.
[2020-04-06] Added a post hoc estimate of the peak number of cases. This needs at least three confirmed observations (four for deaths) after the event. It is based on the averaged smooth trend, and can change later or be a local peak. It is marked with a vertical line with the date label, or a date with left arrow in the bottom left corner of the graph. This is backported to 2020-04-04.
[2020-04-08] Minor correction to peak estimates. Added table with scenario forecasts.
[2020-04-09] Added table with estimated peak dates (if happened) and dates to and since the peak. Note that this can be a local peak, and subsequent re-acceleration (or data revisions) can result in a new peak later.
[2020-04-10] Updated documentation with better description of short-term estimates and peak determination.

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references, but remains preliminary. Also preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Confirmed count average forecast Europe (bold black line in graphs) 2020-04-16 to 2020-04-22

DateUKEUATBEBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRIEITNLPLPTROSENOCH
2020-04-15 98476 776595 14336 33573 5864 6216 134753 6681 177644 3237 133470 2192 12547 165155 28153 7582 18091 7216 11927 6740 26336
2020-04-16 104000 790000 14500 34900 5940 6290 137000 6840 181000 3320 134000 2220 13700 168000 29100 7880 18600 7600 12400 6820 26700
2020-04-17 110000 804000 14600 36200 6020 6390 140000 6990 185000 3400 137000 2260 15100 172000 30200 8190 19200 7900 12900 6900 27000
2020-04-18 117000 818000 14800 37600 6100 6490 142000 7140 188000 3490 139000 2300 16600 175000 31300 8510 19900 8300 13400 6980 27400
2020-04-19 124000 831000 15000 39000 6180 6590 145000 7280 192000 3580 142000 2340 18200 179000 32500 8840 20500 8700 13900 7060 27800
2020-04-20 131000 843000 15200 40500 6250 6690 148000 7440 196000 3660 144000 2380 20000 182000 33700 9180 21200 9200 14400 7140 28100
2020-04-21 139000 854000 15300 42100 6330 6790 151000 7590 200000 3760 147000 2420 22000 186000 35000 9540 21900 9600 15000 7230 28500
2020-04-22 147000 865000 15500 43700 6410 6890 153000 7750 204000 3850 150000 2460 24200 190000 36400 9920 22600 10100 15600 7320 28900

Confirmed count average forecast (bold black line in graphs) 2020-04-16 to 2020-04-22

DateAustraliaBrazilCanadaIranMalaysiaPhilippinesSouth AfricaUSUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-FLUS-GAUS-ILUS-LAUS-MAUS-MIUS-NJUS-NYUS-WAWorld
2020-04-15 6440 28320 28208 76389 5072 5453 2506 636350 27107 8280 14755 2197 22526 14583 24593 21951 29918 27893 71030 213779 10783 2811129
2020-04-16 6480 30700 29500 77900 5200 5700 2620 667000 28400 8700 15600 2300 23400 15200 26000 22400 31600 28900 74200 223000 10900 2917000
2020-04-17 6510 33200 30900 79400 5340 5910 2710 701000 29500 9200 16400 2420 24300 15700 27500 22900 33700 29900 77500 232000 11100 3035000
2020-04-18 6550 35800 32400 80900 5480 6130 2810 737000 30700 9800 17300 2530 25300 16300 29000 23400 36000 30800 81000 241000 11300 3154000
2020-04-19 6580 38700 33900 82500 5620 6350 2910 776000 31900 10400 18200 2650 26300 16800 30700 24000 38500 31800 84600 251000 11400 3275000
2020-04-20 6610 41800 35600 84100 5760 6580 3020 817000 33200 11000 19200 2780 27300 17400 32400 24500 41100 32800 88400 261000 11600 3398000
2020-04-21 6630 45100 37300 85700 5900 6830 3130 862000 34500 11700 20200 2920 28400 18000 34300 25100 44000 33900 92500 271000 11800 3524000
2020-04-22 6660 48700 39200 87400 6030 7090 3250 909000 35900 12400 21300 3060 29600 18600 36200 25700 47200 35000 96800 282000 12000 3651000

Confirmed count forecast Europe (bold red line in graphs) 2020-04-16 to 2020-04-22

DateUKEUATBEBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRIEITNLPLPTROSENOCH
2020-04-15 98476 776595 14336 33573 5864 6216 134753 6681 177644 3237 133470 2192 12547 165155 28153 7582 18091 7216 11927 6740 26336
2020-04-16 104000 790000 14500 34600 5960 6290 137000 6820 181000 3300 135000 2220 13700 168000 29000 7810 18600 7550 12400 6820 26600
2020-04-17 109000 804000 14600 36100 6050 6370 140000 6950 184000 3380 136000 2250 14900 171000 29800 8080 19100 7900 12800 6910 26900
2020-04-18 115000 815000 14700 37500 6130 6440 142000 7080 188000 3450 137000 2280 16200 174000 30700 8350 19600 8250 13300 6990 27200
2020-04-19 121000 827000 14800 39000 6220 6510 144000 7200 191000 3520 138000 2310 17600 177000 31500 8620 20100 8620 13800 7080 27400
2020-04-20 127000 837000 14900 40600 6310 6590 146000 7330 195000 3590 139000 2330 19100 179000 32400 8890 20700 9010 14200 7160 27700
2020-04-21 134000 847000 15000 42300 6400 6660 149000 7460 199000 3660 139000 2360 20700 182000 33300 9180 21200 9420 14800 7250 28000
2020-04-22 141000 856000 15200 44000 6500 6730 151000 7580 203000 3730 140000 2380 22500 185000 34300 9460 21800 9840 15300 7340 28200

Confirmed count forecast (bold red line in graphs) 2020-04-16 to 2020-04-22

DateAustraliaBrazilCanadaIranMalaysiaPhilippinesSouth AfricaUSUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-FLUS-GAUS-ILUS-LAUS-MAUS-MIUS-NJUS-NYUS-WAWorld
2020-04-15 6440 28320 28208 76389 5072 5453 2506 636350 27107 8280 14755 2197 22526 14583 24593 21951 29918 27893 71030 213779 10783 2811129
2020-04-16 6480 30200 29200 77800 5190 5650 2600 666000 28300 8800 15400 2280 23300 15000 25900 22400 31200 28700 74000 222000 10900 2922000
2020-04-17 6510 32400 30300 79300 5310 5870 2700 698000 29500 9300 16100 2380 24200 15500 27200 22800 32800 29600 77000 231000 11000 3032000
2020-04-18 6540 34600 31500 80700 5440 6110 2800 733000 30800 9900 16900 2480 25100 15900 28600 23200 34400 30500 80100 240000 11200 3140000
2020-04-19 6570 37100 32700 82200 5560 6350 2910 770000 32200 10500 17600 2580 26000 16400 30000 23500 36100 31400 83300 249000 11300 3249000
2020-04-20 6590 39800 33900 83600 5690 6600 3020 810000 33700 11100 18400 2690 27000 16900 31500 23900 37900 32300 86600 258000 11400 3359000
2020-04-21 6620 42700 35200 85100 5820 6870 3140 853000 35200 11700 19100 2800 27900 17400 33000 24300 39700 33300 90100 268000 11500 3469000
2020-04-22 6640 45800 36500 86600 5940 7140 3260 899000 36900 12400 20000 2910 29000 17900 34500 24700 41700 34300 93700 278000 11600 3580000

Confirmed count scenario forecast (bold green line in graphs) 2020-04-16 to 2020-04-24

DateUKEUATBEBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRIEITNLPLPTROSENOCHAustraliaBrazilCanadaIranMalaysiaPhilippinesSouth AfricaUSUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-FLUS-GAUS-ILUS-LAUS-MAUS-MIUS-NJUS-NYUS-WAWorld
2020-04-15 98476 776595 14336 33573 5864 6216 134753 6681 177644 3237 133470 2192 12547 165155 28153 7582 18091 7216 11927 6740 26336 6440 28320 28208 76389 5072 5453 2506 636350 27107 8280 14755 2197 22526 14583 24593 21951 29918 27893 71030 213779 10783 2811129
2020-04-16 102000 792000 14600 34200 5920 6290 136000 6750 181000 3270 135000 2240 13300 168000 29100 7760 18600 7440 12200 6780 26600 6540 28900 29000 78100 5200 5580 2580 661000 28000 8600 15300 2230 23400 15000 25600 22400 31400 28700 74300 220000 11000 2892000
2020-04-17 105000 809000 14700 34900 5970 6360 138000 6840 185000 3300 137000 2290 14100 171000 29900 7980 19100 7690 12500 6840 26800 6600 29900 29900 79700 5320 5750 2610 681000 28700 8900 15700 2280 24100 15300 26600 23100 32600 29500 77000 226000 11100 2973000
2020-04-18 109000 827000 14800 35900 6020 6410 139000 6940 188000 3330 138000 2330 14700 174000 30500 8200 19600 7870 12800 6880 27000 6660 30600 30800 81200 5440 5920 2660 702000 29600 9200 16200 2310 24800 15700 27500 23800 33700 30400 80000 232000 11200 3051000
2020-04-19 111000 844000 15000 36700 6060 6470 140000 7030 192000 3360 140000 2370 15300 176000 31200 8390 20000 8070 13000 6930 27200 6730 31600 31500 82700 5540 6050 2710 722000 30200 9400 16600 2330 25500 16100 28500 24700 34600 31500 82800 237000 11300 3130000
2020-04-20 113000 856000 15100 37200 6110 6520 141000 7100 195000 3380 141000 2410 15800 178000 31600 8540 20300 8240 13200 6980 27300 6770 32500 32100 84100 5640 6160 2750 741000 31100 9600 17100 2350 26200 16400 29100 25500 35500 32400 85400 242000 11400 3211000
2020-04-21 116000 867000 15200 37800 6150 6580 142000 7180 198000 3410 143000 2440 16100 179000 32000 8670 20600 8400 13500 7030 27500 6810 33300 32700 85500 5740 6280 2800 756000 32000 9800 17400 2370 26800 16600 29600 26500 36000 33300 88000 246000 11500 3285000
2020-04-22 117000 877000 15300 38300 6190 6630 143000 7270 201000 3440 145000 2470 16400 180000 32100 8820 20900 8540 13600 7070 27700 6840 33600 33400 86900 5820 6370 2810 775000 32800 10000 17800 2400 27400 17000 30100 27500 36500 34200 90200 252000 11600 3343000
2020-04-23 119000 886000 15400 38600 6240 6690 144000 7350 203000 3460 147000 2500 16900 181000 32400 8980 21100 8670 13800 7120 27800 6870 34100 34200 88200 5890 6450 2810 789000 33500 10100 18000 2450 27900 17200 30500 28900 37400 35100 92700 257000 11700 3394000
2020-04-24 122000 894000 15500 38800 6280 6750 145000 7430 206000 3470 148000 2520 17300 182000 32800 9090 21300 8780 14000 7160 28000 6890 34500 34700 89500 5960 6550 2830 808000 34200 10200 18300 2490 28500 17400 30900 30300 38000 36000 95500 260000 11800 3441000

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in Europe 2020-04-15

UKEUATBEBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRIEITNLPLPTROSENOCH
Peak date04-1004-0403-26 --03-2503-2803-2804-0403-2704-0604-0404-02 --03-2104-1004-0704-1004-0904-0803-2703-23
Peak daily increment 5861 32661 875 287 284 6006 333 8156 177 10291 98 5704 1180 402 855 378 568 297 1205
Days from 100 to peak 36 41 18 11 15 27 25 25 24 34 22 27 35 23 28 26 32 21 18
Days from peak/2 to peak 22 25 13 11 14 15 25 14 24 19 25 17 29 21 23 23 29 19 12
Days since peak 5 11 20 21 18 18 11 19 9 11 13 25 5 8 5 6 7 19 23

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed 2020-04-15

AustraliaBrazilCanadaIranMalaysiaPhilippinesSouth AfricaUSUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-FLUS-GAUS-ILUS-LAUS-MAUS-MIUS-NJUS-NYUS-WAWorld
Peak date03-28 --04-0503-3104-0203-3103-2604-1004-04 --04-0904-0804-0304-0704-1004-0404-1204-0304-0304-0904-0204-04
Peak daily increment 411 1489 3122 181 367 190 31829 1318 960 143 1186 948 1420 1738 2051 1665 3792 9688 534 118278
Days from 100 to peak 18 25 35 24 17 8 38 27 21 17 19 22 25 19 31 16 19 32 26 73
Days from peak/2 to peak 14 17 28 25 13 8 21 18 16 19 13 17 20 13 19 12 12 20 22 58
Days since peak 18 10 15 13 15 20 5 11 6 7 12 8 5 11 3 12 12 6 13 11

Initial visual evaluation of forecasts of Confirmed