COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2020-04-20


Disclaimer

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. The documentation that is provided is still in progress and not peer reviewed. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.

Recent changes

[2020-03-24] Our forecasts are starting to overestimate in some cases. This was always expected to happen when the increase starts to slow down. Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, but only for Italy and Spain sofar.
[2020-03-26] Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, only for Italy.
[2020-03-31] Scenario forecasts, based on what happened in China earlier this year, are presented for several countries (line marked with x). Created more plausible 90% confidence bands (dotted line in same colour).
[2020-04-02] Now including more US States, based on New York Times data. And the world.
[2020-04-06] Added a post hoc estimate of the peak number of cases. This needs at least three confirmed observations (four for deaths) after the event. It is based on the averaged smooth trend, and can change later or be a local peak. It is marked with a vertical line with the date label, or a date with left arrow in the bottom left corner of the graph. This is backported to 2020-04-04.
[2020-04-08] Minor correction to peak estimates. Added table with scenario forecasts.
[2020-04-09] Added table with estimated peak dates (if happened) and dates to and since the peak. Note that this can be a local peak, and subsequent re-acceleration (or data revisions) can result in a new peak later.
[2020-04-10] Updated documentation with better description of short-term estimates and peak determination.
[2020-04-16] Added scenario forecasts to all graphs now. This would now be the preferred forecast for most.
This is the first time with a peak in confirmed UK cases (also for deaths, but this is uncertain because it is at the same date).
[2020-04-17] Bird and Nielsen look into nowcasting death counts in England.

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Confirmed count average forecast Europe (bold black line in graphs) 2020-04-21 to 2020-04-27

DateUKEUATBEBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRIEITNLPLPTROSENOCH
2020-04-20 124743 877973 14795 39983 6419 6900 147065 7515 200210 3868 155275 2245 15652 181228 33405 9593 20863 8936 14777 7156 27944
2020-04-21 130000 894000 14900 41300 6510 7020 149000 7660 204000 3980 158000 2250 16200 184000 34300 10000 21400 9200 15300 7230 28200
2020-04-22 135000 909000 15000 42500 6600 7120 151000 7810 208000 4090 162000 2270 16900 187000 35300 10400 21800 9600 15800 7300 28500
2020-04-23 140000 925000 15100 43800 6690 7220 153000 7960 212000 4200 166000 2280 17600 190000 36300 10800 22200 9900 16400 7380 28800
2020-04-24 145000 940000 15200 45200 6790 7330 156000 8120 216000 4310 170000 2290 18300 193000 37300 11200 22700 10300 17000 7460 29100
2020-04-25 151000 954000 15300 46500 6880 7430 158000 8280 220000 4430 174000 2300 19000 196000 38400 11600 23100 10700 17600 7530 29400
2020-04-26 157000 968000 15400 48000 6980 7540 160000 8440 224000 4550 178000 2310 19800 199000 39500 12000 23600 11100 18300 7610 29700
2020-04-27 163000 981000 15500 49400 7080 7660 163000 8610 229000 4670 182000 2320 20600 202000 40600 12500 24100 11500 19000 7690 30100

Confirmed count average forecast (bold black line in graphs) 2020-04-21 to 2020-04-27

DateAustraliaBrazilCanadaIndiaIndonesiaIranMalaysiaMexicoPhilippinesSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-FLUS-GAUS-ILUS-LAUS-MAUS-MIUS-NJUS-NYUS-WAWorld
2020-04-20 6547 40743 37657 18539 6760 83505 5425 8261 6459 3300 90980 784326 33862 10106 19815 2927 27050 18447 31508 24523 39643 31927 88806 247543 12191 3385326
2020-04-21 6560 43700 39500 20100 7070 84800 5480 9000 6650 3500 95000 814000 35800 10500 21000 3100 27900 19200 32800 25000 41500 32600 92000 254000 12400 3500000
2020-04-22 6580 47500 41400 21900 7430 86100 5550 9700 6850 3710 99000 847000 38000 10800 22200 3270 28800 19900 34100 25400 43400 33400 95000 261000 12600 3621000
2020-04-23 6610 51500 43500 23900 7800 87500 5610 10400 7040 3940 103000 882000 40400 11100 23500 3460 29700 20700 35500 25800 45500 34300 99000 268000 12800 3742000
2020-04-24 6630 55900 45700 26100 8200 88900 5680 11200 7250 4180 107000 919000 43000 11500 24900 3660 30600 21500 36900 26200 47600 35100 102000 276000 13100 3864000
2020-04-25 6650 60700 48100 28400 8620 90300 5740 12100 7460 4440 112000 958000 45800 11900 26300 3870 31600 22300 38400 26600 49900 36000 106000 283000 13300 3988000
2020-04-26 6670 65900 50600 31100 9070 91700 5790 13000 7680 4720 117000 999000 48800 12300 27900 4100 32600 23200 39900 27100 52300 36900 109000 291000 13500 4113000
2020-04-27 6700 71500 53300 33900 9540 93100 5840 14000 7910 5000 121000 1042000 51900 12700 29500 4340 33700 24100 41500 27500 54800 37900 113000 300000 13800 4240000

Confirmed count forecast Europe (bold red line in graphs) 2020-04-21 to 2020-04-27

DateUKEUATBEBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRIEITNLPLPTROSENOCH
2020-04-20 124743 877973 14795 39983 6419 6900 147065 7515 200210 3868 155275 2245 15652 181228 33405 9593 20863 8936 14777 7156 27944
2020-04-21 129000 893000 14900 41100 6500 7000 149000 7640 203000 3970 159000 2270 16200 184000 34300 10000 21200 9200 15300 7230 28200
2020-04-22 134000 908000 14900 42300 6580 7110 151000 7770 205000 4080 162000 2280 16700 187000 35200 10300 21700 9500 15800 7300 28500
2020-04-23 139000 921000 15000 43600 6660 7230 153000 7900 208000 4190 166000 2300 17100 189000 36100 10700 22200 9800 16300 7370 28800
2020-04-24 144000 934000 15100 44900 6740 7340 154000 8030 211000 4300 170000 2310 17600 192000 37100 11200 22600 10100 16900 7440 29100
2020-04-25 149000 947000 15100 46200 6820 7460 156000 8160 214000 4420 173000 2320 18100 195000 38000 11600 23100 10400 17500 7520 29300
2020-04-26 155000 959000 15200 47600 6900 7580 158000 8290 217000 4540 177000 2340 18600 198000 39000 12000 23600 10800 18000 7590 29600
2020-04-27 160000 971000 15200 49000 6990 7700 160000 8430 220000 4660 181000 2350 19100 200000 40000 12500 24100 11100 18700 7660 29900

Confirmed count forecast (bold red line in graphs) 2020-04-21 to 2020-04-27

DateAustraliaBrazilCanadaIndiaIndonesiaIranMalaysiaMexicoPhilippinesSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-FLUS-GAUS-ILUS-LAUS-MAUS-MIUS-NJUS-NYUS-WAWorld
2020-04-20 6547 40743 37657 18539 6760 83505 5425 8261 6459 3300 90980 784326 33862 10106 19815 2927 27050 18447 31508 24523 39643 31927 88806 247543 12191 3385326
2020-04-21 6570 44000 39500 20100 7050 84800 5480 9000 6650 3530 95000 811000 35700 10400 21100 3110 27800 19200 32700 24800 41400 32600 92000 254000 12400 3520000
2020-04-22 6580 47600 41600 21700 7340 86000 5520 9900 6840 3750 99000 839000 38100 10800 22700 3290 28600 20000 33900 25200 43100 33300 95000 260000 12700 3642000
2020-04-23 6590 51400 43800 23600 7640 87300 5570 10800 7040 3970 103000 866000 40500 11100 24300 3480 29400 20900 35200 25700 44900 34000 98000 266000 12900 3764000
2020-04-24 6600 55500 46100 25700 7950 88500 5610 11700 7240 4210 107000 894000 43200 11400 26100 3690 30200 21700 36500 26100 46800 34600 101000 272000 13200 3886000
2020-04-25 6610 59900 48600 27900 8270 89800 5650 12800 7450 4470 111000 923000 46200 11800 28000 3910 31000 22600 37900 26500 48800 35300 105000 278000 13400 4011000
2020-04-26 6610 64700 51400 30400 8610 91100 5690 13900 7660 4740 116000 953000 49300 12200 30100 4140 31900 23500 39200 26900 50800 36100 108000 284000 13700 4137000
2020-04-27 6620 69900 54300 33100 8960 92400 5720 15200 7880 5030 121000 984000 52700 12600 32300 4380 32700 24500 40700 27300 53000 36800 112000 291000 13900 4266000

Confirmed count scenario forecast (bold green line in graphs) 2020-04-21 to 2020-04-29

DateUKEUATBEBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRIEITNLPLPTROSENOCHAustraliaBrazilCanadaIndiaIndonesiaIranMalaysiaMexicoPhilippinesSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-FLUS-GAUS-ILUS-LAUS-MAUS-MIUS-NJUS-NYUS-WAWorld
2020-04-20 124743 877973 14795 39983 6419 6900 147065 7515 200210 3868 155275 2245 15652 181228 33405 9593 20863 8936 14777 7156 27944 6547 40743 37657 18539 6760 83505 5425 8261 6459 3300 90980 784326 33862 10106 19815 2927 27050 18447 31508 24523 39643 31927 88806 247543 12191 3385326
2020-04-21 127000 889000 14900 40400 6530 6950 149000 7700 204000 3970 157000 2250 16000 183000 34000 9900 20900 9200 15300 7220 28100 6580 42600 38700 19400 6990 84900 5470 8600 6570 3420 93000 812000 34600 10300 20100 3030 27800 18800 32600 24800 40700 33000 91000 253000 12300 3466000
2020-04-22 130000 899000 14900 41200 6620 7030 152000 7850 208000 4060 158000 2260 16200 185000 34500 10200 21200 9400 15700 7290 28300 6610 44400 39700 20300 7150 86200 5520 9000 6690 3520 96000 837000 35400 10500 20700 3130 28500 19300 33600 25200 41800 33800 93000 257000 12500 3545000
2020-04-23 133000 907000 15000 41800 6710 7130 154000 8020 211000 4140 159000 2260 16300 187000 35000 10500 21400 9500 16100 7350 28600 6640 45400 40600 21200 7310 87500 5570 9200 6790 3610 98000 859000 36000 10600 21100 3250 29100 19700 34400 25500 42600 34600 95000 261000 12600 3609000
2020-04-24 135000 914000 15100 42300 6800 7200 156000 8200 214000 4230 160000 2260 16500 188000 35500 10800 21600 9700 16400 7410 28700 6660 46600 41300 22100 7430 88600 5600 9500 6900 3700 100000 878000 36900 10800 21600 3340 29700 20000 35100 25900 43300 35400 97000 265000 12700 3663000
2020-04-25 137000 920000 15100 42800 6900 7270 158000 8400 216000 4320 160000 2270 16700 189000 35800 11000 21800 9800 16700 7460 28900 6690 48100 42000 22800 7520 89600 5630 9800 6970 3770 101000 895000 37600 10900 22100 3420 30200 20300 35600 26300 43900 36300 98000 268000 12800 3712000
2020-04-26 139000 925000 15100 43300 6980 7340 159000 8600 218000 4400 161000 2270 16800 190000 36100 11200 22000 9900 17000 7470 29100 6710 48600 42600 23100 7600 90600 5660 9900 7030 3820 103000 908000 38000 11000 22600 3480 30700 20600 36300 26700 44400 37100 100000 271000 12900 3755000
2020-04-27 141000 929000 15200 43700 7050 7400 161000 8760 220000 4460 161000 2280 16800 192000 36300 11400 22100 10000 17300 7510 29200 6740 49000 43000 23400 7660 91300 5700 10100 7090 3880 103000 918000 38800 11100 22800 3530 31100 20800 36700 27000 44700 37700 101000 273000 13100 3793000
2020-04-28 142000 934000 15200 43900 7120 7460 162000 8930 222000 4530 161000 2290 16900 192000 36500 11600 22300 10100 17400 7510 29400 6760 49400 43500 23600 7730 92100 5730 10200 7140 3920 104000 932000 39300 11100 23000 3570 31400 21000 37000 27300 44900 38400 102000 276000 13200 3824000
2020-04-29 142000 938000 15200 44200 7140 7520 163000 9070 223000 4580 161000 2300 16900 193000 36600 11700 22400 10100 17600 7530 29500 6780 49400 43600 23700 7770 92700 5760 10200 7180 3940 104000 941000 39700 11200 23300 3610 31700 21200 37500 27600 45200 38900 103000 278000 13300 3842000

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in Europe 2020-04-20

UKEUATBEBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRIEITNLPLPTROSENOCH
Peak date04-1003-2803-2603-2903-2503-2803-2804-0403-2704-0604-1204-0204-1303-2104-10 --04-1004-11 --03-2703-23
Peak daily increment 5869 29740 875 1458 287 284 6006 333 8156 182 12218 96 979 5702 1173 878 374 298 1205
Days from 100 to peak 36 34 18 22 11 15 27 25 25 24 42 22 30 27 35 28 28 21 18
Days from peak/2 to peak 22 18 13 14 11 14 15 25 14 24 27 25 24 17 29 23 25 19 12
Days since peak 10 23 25 22 26 23 23 16 24 14 8 18 7 30 10 10 9 24 28

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed 2020-04-20

AustraliaBrazilCanadaIndiaIndonesiaIranMalaysiaMexicoPhilippinesSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-FLUS-GAUS-ILUS-LAUS-MAUS-MIUS-NJUS-NYUS-WAWorld
Peak date03-28 -- -- --04-1603-3104-02 --03-31 --04-1204-09 --04-03 -- --04-0304-0704-1204-0404-1204-0404-0404-0404-0204-17
Peak daily increment 411 343 3106 180 361 4701 31419 397 1194 999 1441 1782 2035 1658 3845 9720 528 119762
Days from 100 to peak 18 32 35 24 17 24 37 19 19 22 27 19 31 17 20 27 26 86
Days from peak/2 to peak 14 30 28 25 13 18 20 16 13 17 22 13 19 13 13 15 22 71
Days since peak 23 4 20 18 20 8 11 17 17 13 8 16 8 16 16 16 18 3

Initial visual evaluation of forecasts of Confirmed