COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2020-04-22


Disclaimer

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. The documentation that is provided is still in progress and not peer reviewed. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.

Recent changes

[2020-03-24] Our forecasts are starting to overestimate in some cases. This was always expected to happen when the increase starts to slow down. Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, but only for Italy and Spain sofar.
[2020-03-26] Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, only for Italy.
[2020-03-31] Scenario forecasts, based on what happened in China earlier this year, are presented for several countries (line marked with x). Created more plausible 90% confidence bands (dotted line in same colour).
[2020-04-02] Now including more US States, based on New York Times data. And the world.
[2020-04-06] Added a post hoc estimate of the peak number of cases. This needs at least three confirmed observations (four for deaths) after the event. It is based on the averaged smooth trend, and can change later or be a local peak. It is marked with a vertical line with the date label, or a date with left arrow in the bottom left corner of the graph. This is backported to 2020-04-04.
[2020-04-08] Minor correction to peak estimates. Added table with scenario forecasts.
[2020-04-09] Added table with estimated peak dates (if happened) and dates to and since the peak. Note that this can be a local peak, and subsequent re-acceleration (or data revisions) can result in a new peak later.
[2020-04-10] Updated documentation with better description of short-term estimates and peak determination.
[2020-04-16] Added scenario forecasts to all graphs now. This would now be the preferred forecast for most.
This is the first time with a peak in confirmed UK cases (also for deaths, but this is uncertain because it is at the same date).
[2020-04-17] Bird and Nielsen look into nowcasting death counts in England.

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Confirmed count average forecast Europe (bold black line in graphs) 2020-04-23 to 2020-04-29

DateUKEUATBEBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHUIEITNLPLPTROSENOCH
2020-04-22 133495 906314 14925 41889 6583 7132 150648 7912 208389 4129 155860 2408 2168 16671 187327 34842 10169 21982 9710 16004 7338 28268
2020-04-23 138000 919000 15000 43000 6660 7250 152000 8080 212000 4250 157000 2450 2250 17100 190000 35600 10500 22500 10100 16600 7420 28500
2020-04-24 143000 933000 15100 44200 6750 7370 154000 8240 216000 4370 160000 2480 2330 17600 193000 36500 10900 23000 10400 17200 7490 28700
2020-04-25 148000 946000 15100 45400 6840 7480 156000 8390 220000 4500 162000 2500 2410 18100 196000 37400 11200 23500 10700 17800 7560 29000
2020-04-26 154000 958000 15200 46600 6920 7600 158000 8550 223000 4620 165000 2530 2490 18600 199000 38300 11600 24000 11100 18400 7630 29200
2020-04-27 159000 970000 15300 47900 7020 7710 160000 8710 227000 4750 167000 2550 2570 19100 202000 39300 12100 24600 11400 19000 7700 29500
2020-04-28 165000 981000 15400 49300 7110 7830 162000 8870 231000 4890 170000 2580 2660 19600 205000 40300 12500 25100 11800 19700 7770 29800
2020-04-29 171000 992000 15400 50600 7200 7960 164000 9040 235000 5030 172000 2610 2750 20100 208000 41300 13000 25600 12200 20400 7840 30000

Confirmed count average forecast (bold black line in graphs) 2020-04-23 to 2020-04-29

DateAustraliaBrazilCanadaIndiaIndonesiaIranMalaysiaMexicoPhilippinesSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-FLUS-GAUS-ILUS-LAUS-MAUS-MIUS-NJUS-NYUS-WAWorld
2020-04-22 6547 45757 41648 21370 7418 85996 5532 9501 6710 3635 98674 839675 37573 10878 22469 3206 28301 20099 35108 25258 42944 33929 95865 257246 12539 3595872
2020-04-23 6550 48900 44200 23100 7720 87200 5580 10300 6850 3810 103000 869000 39900 11200 23900 3380 29000 21200 37300 25700 44700 34800 99000 262000 12700 3705000
2020-04-24 6560 52700 47100 25000 8050 88500 5640 11100 7020 3980 107000 902000 42400 11600 25400 3570 29700 22400 39900 26100 46500 35500 103000 268000 13000 3823000
2020-04-25 6570 56800 50200 27200 8390 89700 5690 12000 7190 4150 111000 936000 45200 11900 26900 3780 30500 23700 42600 26500 48400 36200 106000 273000 13200 3942000
2020-04-26 6570 61300 53500 29600 8740 91000 5740 12900 7370 4340 115000 972000 48100 12300 28500 4000 31300 25200 45600 26900 50400 36900 110000 279000 13400 4062000
2020-04-27 6580 66100 57100 32200 9110 92300 5780 13900 7550 4530 120000 1009000 51300 12700 30200 4230 32100 26700 48800 27300 52500 37700 113000 285000 13600 4182000
2020-04-28 6590 71300 60900 35100 9500 93600 5820 15100 7740 4740 125000 1050000 54600 13100 32000 4480 33000 28200 52300 27800 54700 38500 117000 291000 13800 4304000
2020-04-29 6590 76900 65000 38200 9910 94900 5860 16300 7930 4950 130000 1091000 58300 13500 33900 4740 33900 29900 56000 28200 57000 39300 121000 297000 14100 4427000

Confirmed count forecast Europe (bold red line in graphs) 2020-04-23 to 2020-04-29

DateUKEUATBEBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHUIEITNLPLPTROSENOCH
2020-04-22 133495 906314 14925 41889 6583 7132 150648 7912 208389 4129 155860 2408 2168 16671 187327 34842 10169 21982 9710 16004 7338 28268
2020-04-23 138000 919000 15000 42900 6660 7240 152000 8070 212000 4240 159000 2420 2250 17100 190000 35600 10400 22400 10000 16500 7410 28500
2020-04-24 142000 930000 15100 44000 6740 7360 154000 8230 216000 4360 161000 2430 2330 17500 193000 36300 10700 22900 10400 17100 7500 28700
2020-04-25 147000 940000 15100 45000 6820 7470 156000 8390 219000 4480 163000 2450 2410 18000 196000 37000 11000 23500 10700 17700 7580 28900
2020-04-26 152000 949000 15200 46000 6900 7580 158000 8560 223000 4600 164000 2460 2500 18400 199000 37800 11300 24000 11000 18300 7660 29100
2020-04-27 157000 957000 15300 47100 6980 7690 160000 8730 227000 4730 166000 2470 2590 18900 202000 38500 11600 24500 11400 18900 7750 29400
2020-04-28 162000 965000 15300 48200 7060 7810 161000 8900 231000 4860 168000 2480 2680 19300 204000 39300 12000 25100 11800 19500 7840 29600
2020-04-29 167000 972000 15400 49400 7140 7930 163000 9070 235000 4990 169000 2500 2780 19800 207000 40000 12300 25700 12100 20200 7920 29800

Confirmed count forecast (bold red line in graphs) 2020-04-23 to 2020-04-29

DateAustraliaBrazilCanadaIndiaIndonesiaIranMalaysiaMexicoPhilippinesSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-FLUS-GAUS-ILUS-LAUS-MAUS-MIUS-NJUS-NYUS-WAWorld
2020-04-22 6547 45757 41648 21370 7418 85996 5532 9501 6710 3635 98674 839675 37573 10878 22469 3206 28301 20099 35108 25258 42944 33929 95865 257246 12539 3595872
2020-04-23 6550 48600 44300 23100 7680 87200 5580 10300 6840 3810 102000 866000 39600 11200 23800 3410 28800 21300 37700 25600 44600 34600 99000 262000 12700 3713000
2020-04-24 6560 51800 47300 25000 7970 88300 5630 11200 6960 3990 106000 892000 42000 11500 25500 3600 29300 22500 40400 26000 46300 35400 102000 266000 12900 3830000
2020-04-25 6560 55100 50500 27100 8260 89500 5680 12100 7080 4170 110000 918000 44500 11900 27300 3810 29900 23800 43200 26400 48100 36100 105000 270000 13100 3946000
2020-04-26 6560 58700 54000 29400 8560 90700 5730 13000 7200 4360 114000 945000 47400 12300 29200 4020 30400 25100 46200 26800 49900 36900 109000 275000 13300 4062000
2020-04-27 6560 62500 57800 31900 8880 91900 5770 14100 7320 4560 118000 972000 50400 12700 31300 4250 31000 26500 49400 27200 51700 37700 112000 279000 13500 4180000
2020-04-28 6560 66600 61900 34600 9200 93100 5810 15200 7450 4760 122000 1000000 53700 13100 33500 4490 31600 28100 52900 27600 53700 38500 116000 283000 13700 4299000
2020-04-29 6560 71000 66300 37600 9540 94300 5850 16400 7570 4980 127000 1029000 57300 13500 35900 4740 32100 29700 56500 28100 55700 39300 120000 288000 13900 4419000

Confirmed count scenario forecast (bold green line in graphs) 2020-04-23 to 2020-05-01

DateUKEUATBEBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHUIEITNLPLPTROSENOCHAustraliaBrazilCanadaIndiaIndonesiaIranMalaysiaMexicoPhilippinesSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-FLUS-GAUS-ILUS-LAUS-MAUS-MIUS-NJUS-NYUS-WAWorld
2020-04-22 133495 906314 14925 41889 6583 7132 150648 7912 208389 4129 155860 2408 2168 16671 187327 34842 10169 21982 9710 16004 7338 28268 6547 45757 41648 21370 7418 85996 5532 9501 6710 3635 98674 839675 37573 10878 22469 3206 28301 20099 35108 25258 42944 33929 95865 257246 12539 3595872
2020-04-23 137000 914000 15000 42600 6690 7220 152000 8040 211000 4210 157000 2420 2220 16800 189000 35500 10500 22200 9800 16400 7380 28500 6580 47000 42800 22300 7580 87200 5560 10000 6790 3750 102000 861000 39100 11000 22900 3360 28900 20400 35900 25700 44200 34500 98000 260000 12700 3664000
2020-04-24 140000 923000 15100 43200 6780 7310 153000 8210 214000 4300 158000 2440 2260 17000 191000 36000 10800 22500 10000 16700 7420 28700 6590 48600 43900 23200 7730 88200 5590 10400 6870 3850 105000 879000 40600 11200 23400 3480 29300 20800 36700 26100 45300 35200 101000 263000 12900 3723000
2020-04-25 142000 930000 15100 43900 6870 7400 155000 8400 216000 4380 158000 2460 2300 17100 192000 36500 11000 22700 10200 17000 7480 28900 6610 49700 45000 23900 7860 89300 5630 10700 6910 3950 107000 895000 42200 11400 24000 3610 29800 21100 37500 26500 46200 35800 103000 266000 13100 3774000
2020-04-26 145000 938000 15200 44400 6940 7490 156000 8560 218000 4460 159000 2470 2340 17200 194000 37100 11200 23000 10300 17300 7520 29000 6640 50800 45900 24600 7970 90200 5660 11100 6980 4020 110000 909000 43600 11600 24400 3730 30100 21400 38300 26800 47100 36400 104000 269000 13300 3817000
2020-04-27 147000 944000 15200 44800 7010 7560 157000 8730 220000 4510 159000 2490 2390 17300 195000 37500 11400 23100 10400 17600 7580 29200 6650 51000 46700 25100 8060 91000 5690 11300 7030 4100 112000 921000 44900 11700 25000 3820 30500 21800 39100 27100 47900 36900 106000 271000 13400 3854000
2020-04-28 148000 950000 15300 45100 7070 7630 158000 8880 222000 4580 159000 2510 2420 17400 196000 38000 11500 23300 10500 17900 7620 29400 6660 51400 47300 25500 8100 91800 5720 11500 7060 4130 114000 934000 46200 11900 25500 3920 30700 22100 39700 27300 48600 37400 107000 274000 13500 3891000
2020-04-29 149000 954000 15300 45300 7120 7690 158000 8990 223000 4630 159000 2520 2440 17500 197000 38100 11700 23500 10600 18000 7660 29500 6670 51800 47700 25700 8150 92500 5750 11900 7090 4160 116000 945000 47500 12000 26000 4020 30900 22300 40200 27700 49200 37900 109000 275000 13600 3917000
2020-04-30 150000 960000 15400 45600 7170 7740 159000 9110 224000 4670 159000 2540 2440 17500 198000 38100 11800 23700 10700 18200 7690 29600 6680 52100 48100 25900 8200 93000 5780 12000 7110 4170 117000 953000 48400 12100 26400 4090 31100 22500 40200 27800 49600 38300 110000 277000 13700 3941000
2020-05-01 151000 965000 15400 45800 7210 7780 160000 9190 226000 4710 159000 2550 2450 17500 199000 38200 11900 23800 10800 18300 7720 29700 6700 52300 48300 26100 8250 93600 5810 12100 7130 4180 118000 958000 49400 12200 26700 4160 31400 22700 40200 28000 50200 38600 111000 279000 13800 3956000

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in Europe 2020-04-22

UKEUATBEBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHUIEITNLPLPTROSENOCH
Peak date04-1003-2803-2603-2903-2503-2803-2804-0403-2704-0604-1204-0104-1004-1303-2104-1004-0504-1004-0904-0903-2703-23
Peak daily increment 5951 29740 875 1458 287 284 6005 333 8155 181 12659 96 129 977 5702 1178 398 904 374 591 298 1205
Days from 100 to peak 36 34 18 22 11 15 27 25 25 24 42 21 20 30 27 35 21 28 26 33 21 18
Days from peak/2 to peak 22 18 13 14 11 14 15 25 14 24 26 24 22 24 17 29 19 23 23 30 19 12
Days since peak 12 25 27 24 28 25 25 18 26 16 10 21 12 9 32 12 17 12 13 13 26 30

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed 2020-04-22

AustraliaBrazilCanadaIndiaIndonesiaIranMalaysiaMexicoPhilippinesSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-FLUS-GAUS-ILUS-LAUS-MAUS-MIUS-NJUS-NYUS-WAWorld
Peak date03-28 -- -- --04-1703-3104-02 --03-3103-2604-1104-07 --04-03 -- --04-03 -- --04-0404-1204-0404-0404-0404-0204-09
Peak daily increment 411 351 3106 180 361 190 4729 31452 397 1194 1782 2009 1658 3845 9720 528 116895
Days from 100 to peak 18 33 35 24 17 8 23 35 19 19 19 31 17 20 27 26 78
Days from peak/2 to peak 14 31 28 25 13 8 17 18 16 13 13 19 13 13 15 22 63
Days since peak 25 5 22 20 22 27 11 15 19 19 18 10 18 18 18 20 13

Initial visual evaluation of forecasts of Confirmed