COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2020-04-27


Disclaimer

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. The documentation that is provided is still in progress and not peer reviewed. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.

Recent changes

[2020-03-24] Our forecasts are starting to overestimate in some cases. This was always expected to happen when the increase starts to slow down. Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, but only for Italy and Spain sofar.
[2020-03-26] Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, only for Italy.
[2020-03-31] Scenario forecasts, based on what happened in China earlier this year, are presented for several countries (line marked with x). Created more plausible 90% confidence bands (dotted line in same colour).
[2020-04-02] Now including more US States, based on New York Times data. And the world.
[2020-04-06] Added a post hoc estimate of the peak number of cases. This needs at least three confirmed observations (four for deaths) after the event. It is based on the averaged smooth trend, and can change later or be a local peak. It is marked with a vertical line with the date label, or a date with left arrow in the bottom left corner of the graph. This is backported to 2020-04-04.
[2020-04-08] Minor correction to peak estimates. Added table with scenario forecasts.
[2020-04-09] Added table with estimated peak dates (if happened) and dates to and since the peak. Note that this can be a local peak, and subsequent re-acceleration (or data revisions) can result in a new peak later.
[2020-04-10] Updated documentation with better description of short-term estimates and peak determination.
[2020-04-16] Added scenario forecasts to all graphs now. This would now be the preferred forecast for most.
This is the first time with a peak in confirmed UK cases (also for deaths, but this is uncertain because it is at the same date).
[2020-04-17] Bird and Nielsen look into nowcasting death counts in England.
[2020-04-24] A summary of our work on short-term COVID-19 forecasting appeared as a voxeu.
[2020-04-27] Our short-term COVID-19 forecasting paper is now available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06.
A small adjustment has been made to the scenario forecast methodology, and will be documented shortly.

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Confirmed count average forecast Europe (bold black line in graphs) 2020-04-28 to 2020-05-04

DateUKEUATBEBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSENOCH
2020-04-27 157149 979286 15274 46687 6825 7445 158758 8698 229422 4695 164589 2534 2039 2583 19648 199414 38245 11902 24027 11339 18926 7599 29164
2020-04-28 162000 991000 15300 47500 6860 7500 160000 8840 233000 4800 166000 2550 2050 2650 20200 202000 38800 12200 24400 11700 19400 7650 29300
2020-04-29 166000 1003000 15400 48400 6910 7570 162000 8990 237000 4910 168000 2580 2070 2730 20700 204000 39500 12500 24800 12000 20000 7710 29500
2020-04-30 171000 1015000 15500 49300 6960 7640 163000 9140 241000 5020 169000 2600 2090 2810 21200 206000 40100 12900 25300 12300 20600 7760 29700
2020-05-01 175000 1026000 15500 50200 7010 7710 165000 9300 244000 5130 171000 2630 2110 2900 21800 209000 40800 13200 25700 12600 21200 7820 29900
2020-05-02 180000 1036000 15600 51200 7060 7780 166000 9460 248000 5240 172000 2660 2130 2980 22400 211000 41400 13500 26200 13000 21800 7880 30000
2020-05-03 185000 1046000 15700 52200 7110 7850 168000 9620 253000 5360 174000 2680 2160 3070 23000 214000 42100 13900 26600 13300 22500 7940 30200
2020-05-04 191000 1056000 15800 53200 7160 7920 170000 9790 257000 5480 175000 2710 2180 3170 23600 216000 42900 14300 27100 13700 23200 8000 30400

Confirmed count average forecast (bold black line in graphs) 2020-04-28 to 2020-05-04

DateAustraliaBrazilCanadaIndiaIndonesiaIranMalaysiaMexicoPhilippinesSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-FLUS-GAUS-ILUS-LAUS-MAUS-MIUS-NJUS-NYUS-WAWorld
2020-04-27 6721 67446 49616 29451 9096 91472 5820 15529 7777 4793 112261 988197 45187 13804 25997 3892 32130 23229 45883 27068 56462 38190 111188 292027 13864 4170937
2020-04-28 6730 72000 51300 31500 9400 92500 5860 16500 7970 5010 115000 1017000 46600 14300 26700 4010 32800 23800 48800 27400 58400 38800 114000 298000 14100 4281000
2020-04-29 6750 78000 53100 33900 9700 93500 5910 17700 8150 5240 117000 1049000 48300 14900 27500 4150 33400 24400 52400 27700 61100 39600 117000 304000 14300 4403000
2020-04-30 6760 84000 54900 36500 10100 94600 5960 19000 8330 5480 120000 1083000 50000 15500 28300 4290 34100 25100 56400 28100 63800 40400 120000 310000 14600 4525000
2020-05-01 6770 90000 56800 39400 10500 95600 6000 20300 8510 5730 123000 1118000 51800 16100 29100 4440 34800 25700 60600 28400 66700 41200 124000 316000 14800 4647000
2020-05-02 6780 97000 58900 42500 10800 96700 6040 21800 8700 5990 126000 1155000 53700 16800 30000 4590 35600 26400 65300 28700 69700 42100 127000 323000 15100 4770000
2020-05-03 6780 105000 61000 45900 11200 97700 6080 23400 8890 6270 129000 1194000 55700 17500 30900 4760 36300 27100 70200 29100 72900 43000 131000 329000 15300 4894000
2020-05-04 6790 113000 63200 49600 11600 98800 6110 25100 9090 6560 132000 1235000 57800 18200 31800 4930 37100 27800 75600 29500 76300 43900 134000 336000 15600 5020000

Confirmed count forecast Europe (bold red line in graphs) 2020-04-28 to 2020-05-04

DateUKEUATBEBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSENOCH
2020-04-27 157149 979286 15274 46687 6825 7445 158758 8698 229422 4695 164589 2534 2039 2583 19648 199414 38245 11902 24027 11339 18926 7599 29164
2020-04-28 161000 992000 15300 47300 6860 7510 160000 8810 232000 4790 165000 2560 2060 2660 20200 201000 38800 12200 24300 11600 19300 7650 29300
2020-04-29 166000 1004000 15400 48000 6900 7560 162000 8930 235000 4890 166000 2580 2080 2730 20700 203000 39300 12500 24600 11900 19700 7710 29500
2020-04-30 170000 1016000 15500 48600 6930 7610 163000 9060 238000 4990 168000 2600 2090 2810 21200 205000 39900 12800 24900 12300 20000 7760 29600
2020-05-01 174000 1027000 15500 49300 6960 7670 164000 9180 241000 5100 169000 2620 2110 2880 21700 207000 40400 13100 25200 12600 20400 7820 29800
2020-05-02 179000 1038000 15600 50000 6990 7720 166000 9300 244000 5200 170000 2640 2120 2960 22200 210000 41000 13400 25500 12900 20800 7870 29900
2020-05-03 183000 1049000 15700 50600 7020 7770 167000 9430 247000 5310 171000 2660 2140 3040 22800 212000 41600 13700 25800 13300 21200 7920 30100
2020-05-04 188000 1059000 15700 51300 7050 7820 168000 9560 250000 5420 172000 2680 2160 3130 23300 214000 42100 14100 26100 13600 21600 7980 30200

Confirmed count forecast (bold red line in graphs) 2020-04-28 to 2020-05-04

DateAustraliaBrazilCanadaIndiaIndonesiaIranMalaysiaMexicoPhilippinesSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-FLUS-GAUS-ILUS-LAUS-MAUS-MIUS-NJUS-NYUS-WAWorld
2020-04-27 6721 67446 49616 29451 9096 91472 5820 15529 7777 4793 112261 988197 45187 13804 25997 3892 32130 23229 45883 27068 56462 38190 111188 292027 13864 4170937
2020-04-28 6740 72000 51100 31200 9400 92500 5860 16500 7930 5000 114000 1016000 46400 14300 26600 3980 32700 23800 48900 27400 57900 38800 114000 298000 14100 4292000
2020-04-29 6750 78000 52600 33300 9700 93500 5900 17500 8110 5230 116000 1046000 47800 14800 27300 4080 33300 24400 52100 27600 59400 39400 117000 304000 14300 4413000
2020-04-30 6770 83000 54100 35500 10000 94500 5940 18600 8300 5470 119000 1079000 49200 15400 27900 4180 33900 25000 55500 27900 60800 40000 119000 310000 14500 4533000
2020-05-01 6780 89000 55700 38000 10300 95400 5980 19700 8490 5710 121000 1114000 50800 15900 28600 4280 34500 25600 59000 28200 62300 40700 122000 316000 14800 4653000
2020-05-02 6790 96000 57400 40600 10700 96400 6020 20900 8690 5960 123000 1151000 52400 16500 29200 4380 35200 26200 62800 28500 63800 41300 125000 322000 15000 4772000
2020-05-03 6800 103000 59100 43600 11000 97400 6050 22200 8890 6230 125000 1190000 54200 17100 29900 4480 35800 26900 66800 28800 65400 42000 128000 328000 15200 4892000
2020-05-04 6810 110000 60800 46700 11400 98500 6080 23500 9090 6510 127000 1232000 56000 17700 30600 4590 36400 27500 71100 29100 67100 42600 131000 335000 15500 5011000

Confirmed count scenario forecast (bold purple line in graphs) 2020-04-28 to 2020-05-06

DateUKEUATBEBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSENOCHAustraliaBrazilCanadaIndiaIndonesiaIranMalaysiaMexicoPhilippinesSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-FLUS-GAUS-ILUS-LAUS-MAUS-MIUS-NJUS-NYUS-WAWorld
2020-04-27 157149 979286 15274 46687 6825 7445 158758 8698 229422 4695 164589 2534 2039 2583 19648 199414 38245 11902 24027 11339 18926 7599 29164 6721 67446 49616 29451 9096 91472 5820 15529 7777 4793 112261 988197 45187 13804 25997 3892 32130 23229 45883 27068 56462 38190 111188 292027 13864 4170937
2020-04-28 161000 990000 15300 47500 6850 7500 160000 8800 232000 4740 165000 2560 2070 2630 20200 201000 38700 12100 24400 11600 19400 7640 29300 6720 70500 50600 30800 9400 92100 5880 16400 7890 4950 114000 1010000 45900 14400 26500 3980 32600 23600 47500 27300 58500 39000 114000 299000 14100 4292000
2020-04-29 164000 1000000 15400 48100 6870 7550 161000 8890 235000 4800 167000 2580 2090 2670 20800 203000 39200 12400 24700 11800 19700 7670 29400 6720 73600 51800 31800 9700 92800 5930 17200 8010 5130 116000 1030000 46800 14900 27100 4060 33000 24100 49000 27500 60200 39600 116000 306000 14200 4393000
2020-04-30 167000 1008000 15500 48700 6880 7570 162000 8980 238000 4860 169000 2590 2100 2710 21300 204000 39500 12600 24900 12100 20000 7700 29500 6730 76700 52900 32600 10000 93400 5980 17900 8130 5290 118000 1049000 47600 15300 27500 4130 33500 24400 50500 27700 61600 40300 119000 313000 14400 4474000
2020-05-01 170000 1016000 15500 49200 6890 7600 163000 9040 240000 4900 171000 2600 2120 2740 21900 205000 39900 12800 25100 12200 20300 7730 29700 6730 79600 54000 33400 10300 94000 6030 18500 8240 5430 119000 1066000 48300 15700 27800 4180 33800 24700 51500 27900 62700 40800 120000 319000 14500 4549000
2020-05-02 173000 1023000 15600 49700 6900 7620 164000 9110 241000 4930 173000 2610 2140 2760 22400 206000 40200 13000 25300 12500 20500 7750 29800 6740 82200 54700 34000 10500 94500 6070 19000 8350 5560 121000 1083000 48900 16100 28100 4240 34200 24900 52400 28000 63800 41100 122000 324000 14600 4623000
2020-05-03 176000 1030000 15600 50100 6920 7630 164000 9190 243000 4950 175000 2630 2160 2780 22900 207000 40400 13200 25500 12700 20700 7770 29900 6740 84200 55200 34500 10800 95000 6120 19500 8430 5700 122000 1097000 49300 16400 28400 4260 34500 25100 53200 28200 65100 41500 124000 328000 14700 4693000
2020-05-04 178000 1036000 15700 50400 6920 7640 165000 9240 244000 4970 177000 2640 2180 2790 23400 208000 40700 13300 25700 12900 20800 7790 29900 6740 86300 55900 34900 11000 95400 6150 20000 8520 5810 123000 1110000 49500 16700 28600 4290 34700 25300 54300 28300 65800 41800 125000 331000 14800 4741000
2020-05-05 180000 1043000 15700 50800 6930 7650 166000 9280 245000 5000 178000 2650 2190 2810 23800 209000 40900 13500 25800 13000 20900 7800 30000 6750 88600 56500 35200 11200 95800 6190 20300 8600 5900 124000 1122000 49700 16900 28800 4310 35000 25500 54900 28400 66300 42100 127000 335000 14800 4787000
2020-05-06 183000 1049000 15700 51100 6950 7650 166000 9310 246000 5010 180000 2660 2200 2820 24200 210000 41100 13600 26000 13200 21000 7820 30100 6750 90400 57200 35700 11400 96200 6220 20800 8680 5970 125000 1132000 49900 17100 29000 4320 35200 25600 55400 28500 66700 42400 128000 339000 14900 4828000

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in Europe 2020-04-27

UKEUATBEBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSENOCH
Peak date04-1003-2803-2604-1503-2503-2803-2804-0403-2704-0604-1204-0203-3004-1004-1303-2104-1004-1704-1004-1104-2303-2703-23
Peak daily increment 5964 29742 875 1472 287 284 6005 333 8155 181 13583 96 76 128 985 5701 1173 402 904 376 654 298 1205
Days from 100 to peak 36 34 18 39 11 15 27 25 25 24 42 22 11 20 30 27 35 33 28 28 47 21 18
Days from peak/2 to peak 22 18 13 31 11 14 15 25 14 24 26 25 15 22 24 17 29 31 23 25 44 19 12
Days since peak 17 30 32 12 33 30 30 23 31 21 15 25 28 17 14 37 17 10 17 16 4 31 35

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed 2020-04-27

AustraliaBrazilCanadaIndiaIndonesiaIranMalaysiaMexicoPhilippinesSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-FLUS-GAUS-ILUS-LAUS-MAUS-MIUS-NJUS-NYUS-WAWorld
Peak date03-28 --04-20 --04-1703-3104-02 --03-3104-2304-1104-0904-21 --04-2204-2104-0304-07 --04-0404-2404-0404-0404-0404-0204-24
Peak daily increment 411 1872 345 3106 180 361 225 4741 31656 1847 1173 159 1194 986 1782 2915 1659 3845 9744 528 128629
Days from 100 to peak 18 40 33 35 24 17 36 23 37 44 34 29 19 22 19 43 17 20 27 26 93
Days from peak/2 to peak 14 31 31 28 25 13 35 17 20 33 29 30 13 17 13 30 13 13 15 22 77
Days since peak 30 7 10 27 25 27 4 16 18 6 5 6 24 20 23 3 23 23 23 25 3

Initial visual evaluation of forecasts of Confirmed