COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2020-04-29


Disclaimer

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. The documentation that is provided is still in progress and not peer reviewed. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.

Recent changes

[2020-03-24] Our forecasts are starting to overestimate in some cases. This was always expected to happen when the increase starts to slow down. Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, but only for Italy and Spain sofar.
[2020-03-26] Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, only for Italy.
[2020-03-31] Scenario forecasts, based on what happened in China earlier this year, are presented for several countries (line marked with x). Created more plausible 90% confidence bands (dotted line in same colour).
[2020-04-02] Now including more US States, based on New York Times data. And the world.
[2020-04-06] Added a post hoc estimate of the peak number of cases. This needs at least three confirmed observations (four for deaths) after the event. It is based on the averaged smooth trend, and can change later or be a local peak. It is marked with a vertical line with the date label, or a date with left arrow in the bottom left corner of the graph. This is backported to 2020-04-04.
[2020-04-08] Minor correction to peak estimates. Added table with scenario forecasts.
[2020-04-09] Added table with estimated peak dates (if happened) and dates to and since the peak. Note that this can be a local peak, and subsequent re-acceleration (or data revisions) can result in a new peak later.
[2020-04-10] Updated documentation with better description of short-term estimates and peak determination.
[2020-04-16] Added scenario forecasts to all graphs now. This would now be the preferred forecast for most.
This is the first time with a peak in confirmed UK cases (also for deaths, but this is uncertain because it is at the same date).
[2020-04-17] Bird and Nielsen look into nowcasting death counts in England.
[2020-04-24] A summary of our work on short-term COVID-19 forecasting appeared as a voxeu.
[2020-04-27] Our short-term COVID-19 forecasting paper is now available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06.
A small adjustment has been made to the scenario forecast methodology, and will be documented shortly.
[2020-04-29] See our blog entry at the International Institute of Forecasters.
US history of death counts revised in Johns Hopkins/CSSE data.
UK death counts have been revised to include the deaths in care homes. In the Johns Hopkins/CSSE data set, which we use, the entire history has been revised. So forecasts made up to 2020-04-29 cannot be compared to later outcomes. In the ECDC data set only the last observation has changed, causing a jump in the series.

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Confirmed count average forecast Europe (bold black line in graphs) 2020-04-30 to 2020-05-06

DateUKEUATBEBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSENOCH
2020-04-29 165221 1000942 15402 47859 6810 7579 161539 9008 236899 4906 165093 2576 2062 2727 20253 203591 38802 12640 24505 11978 20302 7710 29407
2020-04-30 169000 1011000 15500 48500 6800 7640 163000 9200 240000 5010 166000 2590 2070 2800 20600 206000 39200 13000 24800 12300 20900 7760 29500
2020-05-01 174000 1022000 15500 49200 6830 7690 164000 9300 244000 5100 168000 2610 2090 2860 21100 208000 39600 13300 25100 12600 21400 7810 29700
2020-05-02 178000 1032000 15600 49900 6860 7750 166000 9400 247000 5200 169000 2630 2100 2930 21500 210000 40100 13600 25400 12900 21900 7860 29800
2020-05-03 182000 1041000 15700 50700 6890 7800 167000 9600 250000 5290 170000 2650 2110 3010 22000 212000 40600 14000 25800 13300 22500 7920 30000
2020-05-04 187000 1051000 15700 51400 6920 7850 168000 9700 254000 5390 171000 2670 2130 3080 22500 214000 41100 14300 26100 13600 23000 7970 30100
2020-05-05 192000 1059000 15800 52200 6950 7910 170000 9900 257000 5500 173000 2690 2140 3160 23000 216000 41600 14700 26400 13900 23600 8020 30300
2020-05-06 196000 1068000 15900 53000 6980 7960 171000 10000 261000 5600 174000 2700 2160 3230 23500 218000 42000 15000 26800 14300 24300 8070 30400

Confirmed count average forecast (bold black line in graphs) 2020-04-30 to 2020-05-06

DateAustraliaBrazilCanadaIndiaIndonesiaIranMalaysiaMexicoPhilippinesSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-FLUS-GAUS-ILUS-LAUS-MAUS-MIUS-NJUS-NYUS-WAWorld
2020-04-29 6752 79685 52865 33062 9771 93657 5945 17799 8212 5350 117589 1039909 48904 14680 26767 4106 33185 24300 50355 27660 60265 40360 116264 299722 14378 4378077
2020-04-30 6760 86000 54500 34900 10100 95000 6000 18900 8420 5640 120000 1067000 50500 15100 27200 4210 33700 24800 53300 27900 62100 41200 119000 304000 14600 4486000
2020-05-01 6780 93000 56200 36800 10400 96000 6040 20100 8610 5930 122000 1097000 51900 15600 27800 4330 34300 25300 57100 28200 64100 41900 121000 309000 14800 4604000
2020-05-02 6790 100000 57900 38900 10700 97000 6080 21300 8810 6240 124000 1128000 53400 16100 28400 4440 34900 25800 61200 28500 66200 42600 124000 315000 15100 4723000
2020-05-03 6800 108000 59700 41100 11100 98000 6120 22600 9010 6570 126000 1161000 54900 16700 29000 4570 35500 26400 65600 28800 68400 43300 127000 320000 15300 4841000
2020-05-04 6820 116000 61600 43400 11500 99000 6160 24100 9220 6910 129000 1194000 56500 17200 29600 4690 36100 26900 70400 29100 70600 44100 130000 326000 15500 4961000
2020-05-05 6830 125000 63700 45900 11800 100000 6190 25600 9430 7280 131000 1230000 58100 17800 30200 4820 36800 27400 75400 29400 72900 44800 133000 331000 15800 5081000
2020-05-06 6840 135000 65700 48500 12200 101000 6210 27200 9650 7660 133000 1266000 59800 18400 30800 4960 37500 28000 80900 29700 75400 45600 136000 337000 16000 5201000

Confirmed count forecast Europe (bold red line in graphs) 2020-04-30 to 2020-05-06

DateUKEUATBEBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSENOCH
2020-04-29 165221 1000942 15402 47859 6810 7579 161539 9008 236899 4906 165093 2576 2062 2727 20253 203591 38802 12640 24505 11978 20302 7710 29407
2020-04-30 169000 1012000 15500 48500 6820 7650 163000 9100 240000 4980 167000 2590 2070 2780 20600 206000 39200 12900 24800 12200 20800 7760 29500
2020-05-01 173000 1021000 15500 49000 6840 7710 164000 9300 243000 5080 167000 2600 2080 2840 21000 207000 39500 13300 25000 12500 21300 7810 29700
2020-05-02 177000 1031000 15600 49600 6860 7770 165000 9400 247000 5180 168000 2610 2090 2900 21300 209000 39800 13600 25300 12900 21900 7860 29800
2020-05-03 181000 1039000 15700 50100 6880 7840 167000 9600 250000 5280 168000 2620 2100 2960 21700 211000 40200 14000 25500 13200 22400 7910 30000
2020-05-04 185000 1048000 15700 50600 6890 7900 168000 9700 254000 5380 168000 2630 2110 3030 22000 213000 40500 14300 25700 13500 23000 7960 30100
2020-05-05 190000 1055000 15800 51100 6910 7970 169000 9900 257000 5490 169000 2640 2120 3090 22400 215000 40800 14700 26000 13800 23600 8010 30200
2020-05-06 194000 1063000 15800 51700 6930 8030 170000 10000 261000 5600 169000 2650 2130 3160 22800 217000 41100 15000 26200 14100 24200 8060 30400

Confirmed count forecast (bold red line in graphs) 2020-04-30 to 2020-05-06

DateAustraliaBrazilCanadaIndiaIndonesiaIranMalaysiaMexicoPhilippinesSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-FLUS-GAUS-ILUS-LAUS-MAUS-MIUS-NJUS-NYUS-WAWorld
2020-04-29 6752 79685 52865 33062 9771 93657 5945 17799 8212 5350 117589 1039909 48904 14680 26767 4106 33185 24300 50355 27660 60265 40360 116264 299722 14378 4378077
2020-04-30 6770 85000 54100 34500 10100 95000 5990 18800 8380 5610 120000 1068000 50000 15100 27200 4210 33600 24700 53600 27900 62000 41000 118000 304000 14600 4492000
2020-05-01 6780 91000 55600 36200 10400 96000 6040 19900 8580 5920 122000 1098000 51400 15500 27600 4320 34100 25200 57100 28200 63800 41800 121000 309000 14800 4605000
2020-05-02 6790 97000 57100 38000 10700 97000 6090 21000 8780 6220 125000 1130000 52900 15900 28000 4430 34600 25700 60800 28500 65500 42600 123000 313000 15100 4717000
2020-05-03 6800 103000 58600 39800 11000 98000 6130 22200 8990 6560 127000 1163000 54400 16300 28400 4540 35000 26200 64800 28800 67300 43300 125000 318000 15300 4828000
2020-05-04 6810 110000 60200 41700 11300 99000 6180 23500 9200 6910 129000 1199000 56000 16700 28700 4650 35500 26700 69100 29000 69200 44100 128000 323000 15500 4939000
2020-05-05 6820 118000 61800 43700 11600 100000 6220 24800 9410 7280 132000 1237000 57600 17200 29100 4770 36000 27200 73600 29300 71100 44900 130000 327000 15800 5050000
2020-05-06 6820 126000 63400 45800 11900 101000 6250 26200 9640 7670 134000 1276000 59200 17600 29500 4890 36400 27700 78400 29600 73000 45700 133000 332000 16000 5160000

Confirmed count scenario forecast (bold purple line in graphs) 2020-04-30 to 2020-05-08

DateUKEUATBEBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSENOCHAustraliaBrazilCanadaIndiaIndonesiaIranMalaysiaMexicoPhilippinesSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-FLUS-GAUS-ILUS-LAUS-MAUS-MIUS-NJUS-NYUS-WAWorld
2020-04-29 165221 1000942 15402 47859 6810 7579 161539 9008 236899 4906 165093 2576 2062 2727 20253 203591 38802 12640 24505 11978 20302 7710 29407 6752 79685 52865 33062 9771 93657 5945 17799 8212 5350 117589 1039909 48904 14680 26767 4106 33185 24300 50355 27660 60265 40360 116264 299722 14378 4378077
2020-04-30 169000 1011000 15500 48400 6820 7590 162000 9100 239000 4920 168000 2590 2070 2760 20700 205000 39200 12800 24700 12200 20500 7730 29500 6760 83000 53900 33900 10000 94300 5980 18400 8320 5460 118000 1057000 49100 15000 27200 4170 33700 24600 52300 27800 61300 40800 118000 306000 14500 4479000
2020-05-01 172000 1020000 15500 48800 6830 7630 163000 9210 242000 4970 170000 2610 2080 2800 21200 206000 39500 13100 24900 12400 20800 7770 29600 6760 88000 55100 35200 10300 95000 6020 19100 8480 5600 120000 1077000 50000 15300 27500 4220 34000 25000 53900 28000 62600 41300 120000 311000 14700 4557000
2020-05-02 175000 1029000 15600 49200 6830 7660 164000 9300 244000 5020 171000 2610 2090 2830 21600 207000 39700 13300 25000 12600 21100 7800 29700 6770 92000 56200 36000 10600 95700 6060 19700 8630 5750 122000 1093000 50900 15500 27800 4260 34400 25300 55400 28100 63700 41800 122000 315000 14900 4636000
2020-05-03 178000 1037000 15600 49500 6840 7680 165000 9380 245000 5050 173000 2620 2090 2850 22100 208000 39900 13500 25100 12800 21300 7820 29800 6790 96000 57200 36800 10800 96300 6090 20100 8760 5900 123000 1108000 51400 15700 28000 4310 34700 25500 57000 28300 64700 42200 123000 320000 15000 4706000
2020-05-04 180000 1044000 15700 49800 6840 7690 165000 9440 247000 5080 174000 2620 2100 2870 22500 209000 40100 13700 25200 13000 21500 7850 29900 6790 99000 58200 37900 11000 96900 6130 20700 8880 6010 124000 1120000 51800 15900 28100 4350 35000 25800 58600 28400 65400 42600 125000 323000 15200 4764000
2020-05-05 182000 1052000 15700 50100 6840 7710 166000 9490 248000 5110 175000 2630 2110 2880 22900 210000 40300 13900 25300 13100 21500 7870 30000 6810 102000 59100 38200 11100 97300 6160 21100 8980 6090 126000 1131000 52100 16100 28200 4370 35200 25900 59500 28600 65800 42800 126000 326000 15300 4802000
2020-05-06 185000 1058000 15700 50400 6840 7720 167000 9540 249000 5130 176000 2630 2110 2890 23300 211000 40500 14100 25400 13200 21600 7880 30100 6820 105000 59900 38800 11300 97600 6190 21400 9070 6150 127000 1141000 52400 16100 28400 4410 35500 26100 60000 28700 66000 43100 127000 329000 15300 4859000
2020-05-07 187000 1064000 15700 50600 6850 7730 167000 9580 251000 5150 178000 2640 2120 2910 23600 211000 40600 14200 25500 13400 21700 7910 30200 6830 107000 60600 39000 11400 98100 6220 21700 9130 6210 128000 1151000 52500 16100 28500 4420 35700 26200 60400 28700 66300 43500 128000 331000 15400 4893000
2020-05-08 188000 1070000 15800 50900 6870 7740 168000 9630 252000 5170 179000 2650 2130 2910 23900 212000 40800 14300 25600 13500 21800 7930 30200 6840 109000 61100 39400 11500 98500 6250 22100 9190 6250 129000 1157000 52500 16200 28600 4450 35900 26400 60900 28800 66700 43700 129000 334000 15500 4927000

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in Europe 2020-04-29

UKEUATBEBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSENOCH
Peak date04-1003-2803-2604-1503-2503-2803-2804-0403-2704-0604-1204-0203-3004-1004-1303-2104-1004-1704-1004-1104-2303-2703-23
Peak daily increment 5963 29742 875 1482 287 284 6005 333 8154 181 13251 96 76 128 985 5700 1173 401 904 376 660 298 1205
Days from 100 to peak 36 34 18 39 11 15 27 25 25 24 42 22 11 20 30 27 35 33 28 28 47 21 18
Days from peak/2 to peak 22 18 13 31 11 14 15 25 14 24 26 25 15 22 24 17 29 31 23 25 44 19 12
Days since peak 19 32 34 14 35 32 32 25 33 23 17 27 30 19 16 39 19 12 19 18 6 33 37

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed 2020-04-29

AustraliaBrazilCanadaIndiaIndonesiaIranMalaysiaMexicoPhilippinesSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-FLUS-GAUS-ILUS-LAUS-MAUS-MIUS-NJUS-NYUS-WAWorld
Peak date03-28 --04-16 --04-2403-3104-0204-2403-31 --04-1104-0904-2104-2404-2204-2104-0304-07 --04-0404-2404-0404-0404-0404-0204-24
Peak daily increment 411 1868 358 3107 180 1075 361 4741 31659 1807 627 1177 158 1194 986 1782 2879 1659 3845 9745 528 120098
Days from 100 to peak 18 36 40 35 24 37 17 23 37 44 40 34 29 19 22 19 43 17 20 27 26 93
Days from peak/2 to peak 14 27 38 28 25 29 13 17 20 33 35 29 30 13 17 13 30 13 13 15 22 78
Days since peak 32 13 5 29 27 5 29 18 20 8 5 7 8 26 22 25 5 25 25 25 27 5

Initial visual evaluation of forecasts of Confirmed