COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2020-05-01


Disclaimer

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. The documentation that is provided is still in progress and not peer reviewed. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.

Recent changes

[2020-03-24] Our forecasts are starting to overestimate in some cases. This was always expected to happen when the increase starts to slow down. Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, but only for Italy and Spain sofar.
[2020-03-26] Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, only for Italy.
[2020-03-31] Scenario forecasts, based on what happened in China earlier this year, are presented for several countries (line marked with x). Created more plausible 90% confidence bands (dotted line in same colour).
[2020-04-02] Now including more US States, based on New York Times data. And the world.
[2020-04-06] Added a post hoc estimate of the peak number of cases. This needs at least three confirmed observations (four for deaths) after the event. It is based on the averaged smooth trend, and can change later or be a local peak. It is marked with a vertical line with the date label, or a date with left arrow in the bottom left corner of the graph. This is backported to 2020-04-04.
[2020-04-08] Minor correction to peak estimates. Added table with scenario forecasts.
[2020-04-09] Added table with estimated peak dates (if happened) and dates to and since the peak. Note that this can be a local peak, and subsequent re-acceleration (or data revisions) can result in a new peak later.
[2020-04-10] Updated documentation with better description of short-term estimates and peak determination.
[2020-04-16] Added scenario forecasts to all graphs now. This would now be the preferred forecast for most.
This is the first time with a peak in confirmed UK cases (also for deaths, but this is uncertain because it is at the same date).
[2020-04-17] Bird and Nielsen look into nowcasting death counts in England.
[2020-04-24] A summary of our work on short-term COVID-19 forecasting appeared as a voxeu.
[2020-04-27] Our short-term COVID-19 forecasting paper is now available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06.
A small adjustment has been made to the scenario forecast methodology, and will be documented shortly.
[2020-04-29] See our blog entry at the International Institute of Forecasters.
US history of death counts revised in Johns Hopkins/CSSE data.
UK death counts have been revised to include the deaths in care homes. In the Johns Hopkins/CSSE data set, which we use, the entire history has been revised. So forecasts made up to 2020-04-29 cannot be compared to later outcomes. In the ECDC data set only the last observation has changed, causing a jump in the series.

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Confirmed count average forecast Europe (bold black line in graphs) 2020-05-02 to 2020-05-08

DateUKEUATBEBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSENOCH
2020-05-01 177454 991574 15531 49032 6895 7737 164077 9311 213435 5051 165764 2612 2085 2863 20833 207428 39791 13105 25351 12567 21520 7783 29705
2020-05-02 179000 998000 15600 49600 6910 7780 165000 9400 214000 5110 166000 2620 2090 2900 21100 209000 40000 13400 25600 12800 22000 7820 29800
2020-05-03 184000 1005000 15700 50100 6920 7820 166000 9600 215000 5190 167000 2640 2110 2960 21500 211000 40400 13700 25800 13100 22500 7870 30000
2020-05-04 188000 1012000 15700 50700 6940 7880 168000 9700 216000 5280 168000 2660 2120 3030 21800 213000 40800 14000 26100 13400 23100 7920 30100
2020-05-05 193000 1018000 15800 51300 6960 7940 169000 9900 216000 5370 169000 2670 2130 3090 22100 215000 41200 14300 26400 13700 23700 7960 30200
2020-05-06 197000 1024000 15800 51900 6980 8000 170000 10000 217000 5460 170000 2690 2140 3160 22500 217000 41600 14600 26700 14000 24300 8010 30400
2020-05-07 202000 1029000 15900 52500 7000 8060 172000 10100 218000 5550 171000 2700 2150 3230 22800 219000 41900 14900 27000 14300 24900 8060 30500
2020-05-08 207000 1034000 16000 53100 7010 8120 173000 10300 219000 5650 172000 2720 2160 3300 23200 221000 42300 15300 27300 14600 25600 8100 30600

Confirmed count average forecast (bold black line in graphs) 2020-05-02 to 2020-05-08

DateAustraliaBrazilCanadaIndiaIndonesiaIranMalaysiaMexicoPhilippinesSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-FLUS-GAUS-ILUS-LAUS-MAUS-MIUS-NJUS-NYUS-WAWorld
2020-05-01 6778 92202 56343 37257 10551 95646 6071 20739 8772 5951 122392 1103461 52318 15661 28764 4658 34720 26436 56055 28711 64311 42348 121190 308345 15010 4595039
2020-05-02 6790 99000 57500 39700 11000 97000 6090 22000 8900 6200 124000 1124000 54800 16000 28900 4720 35000 26600 59500 28800 65800 42800 123000 312000 15100 4704000
2020-05-03 6800 108000 59200 42500 11500 98000 6130 23600 9000 6530 126000 1153000 57600 16400 29200 4880 35500 27000 63500 28900 67600 43500 126000 316000 15300 4818000
2020-05-04 6810 117000 60900 45500 12100 99000 6160 25200 9300 6890 128000 1183000 60700 16900 29600 5090 36000 27400 67800 29200 69400 44300 128000 320000 15500 4932000
2020-05-05 6820 127000 62700 48800 12700 100000 6200 27000 9500 7270 130000 1214000 63900 17400 30100 5310 36600 27900 72500 29500 71200 45100 130000 324000 15800 5046000
2020-05-06 6830 137000 64500 52400 13300 101000 6240 29000 9700 7660 133000 1246000 67300 17900 30600 5540 37200 28500 77500 29800 73100 45900 133000 328000 16000 5160000
2020-05-07 6840 149000 66400 56200 13900 102000 6260 31100 10000 8080 135000 1279000 71000 18400 31200 5780 37700 29200 82800 30100 75100 46800 135000 332000 16300 5274000
2020-05-08 6850 161000 68400 60400 14600 103000 6290 33300 10200 8520 137000 1314000 74800 18900 31700 6030 38300 29800 88500 30400 77100 47600 138000 337000 16500 5388000

Confirmed count forecast Europe (bold red line in graphs) 2020-05-02 to 2020-05-08

DateUKEUATBEBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSENOCH
2020-05-01 177454 991574 15531 49032 6895 7737 164077 9311 213435 5051 165764 2612 2085 2863 20833 207428 39791 13105 25351 12567 21520 7783 29705
2020-05-02 182000 999000 15600 49600 6930 7800 165000 9400 214000 5130 167000 2630 2100 2910 21100 209000 40200 13300 25600 12800 22000 7830 29800
2020-05-03 187000 1005000 15700 50100 6950 7860 166000 9600 215000 5210 167000 2650 2110 2970 21400 211000 40600 13500 25900 13100 22500 7880 29900
2020-05-04 192000 1011000 15700 50700 6980 7920 168000 9700 216000 5290 168000 2670 2120 3040 21700 213000 41100 13700 26200 13300 23100 7920 30100
2020-05-05 197000 1017000 15800 51200 7010 7980 169000 9800 217000 5370 168000 2680 2130 3100 21900 215000 41500 13900 26500 13600 23600 7970 30200
2020-05-06 202000 1022000 15800 51800 7040 8040 170000 10000 217000 5450 168000 2700 2140 3160 22200 217000 42000 14200 26700 13900 24100 8020 30300
2020-05-07 207000 1027000 15900 52300 7070 8100 171000 10100 218000 5530 168000 2720 2150 3230 22500 219000 42400 14400 27000 14200 24700 8060 30400
2020-05-08 212000 1031000 16000 52900 7090 8160 172000 10200 219000 5620 168000 2730 2160 3300 22800 221000 42900 14600 27300 14500 25300 8110 30600

Confirmed count forecast (bold red line in graphs) 2020-05-02 to 2020-05-08

DateAustraliaBrazilCanadaIndiaIndonesiaIranMalaysiaMexicoPhilippinesSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-FLUS-GAUS-ILUS-LAUS-MAUS-MIUS-NJUS-NYUS-WAWorld
2020-05-01 6778 92202 56343 37257 10551 95646 6071 20739 8772 5951 122392 1103461 52318 15661 28764 4658 34720 26436 56055 28711 64311 42348 121190 308345 15010 4595039
2020-05-02 6790 100000 57900 40000 11100 97000 6120 22300 9000 6280 125000 1133000 55700 16100 29100 4790 35200 27200 59300 29000 66000 43200 123000 312000 15200 4715000
2020-05-03 6810 107000 59400 43000 11700 98000 6160 24000 9200 6630 127000 1164000 59200 16500 29700 5000 35800 27900 62700 29400 67600 44000 125000 316000 15500 4831000
2020-05-04 6820 116000 60900 46300 12300 98000 6210 25900 9400 7010 129000 1196000 62800 16900 30300 5220 36400 28600 66300 29800 69100 44900 127000 320000 15800 4948000
2020-05-05 6830 124000 62500 49900 13000 99000 6250 27800 9700 7400 131000 1230000 66700 17400 30900 5460 37000 29300 70100 30200 70700 45700 129000 324000 16000 5063000
2020-05-06 6840 134000 64100 53800 13700 100000 6290 30000 9900 7820 133000 1266000 70800 17800 31500 5710 37600 30100 74100 30600 72300 46600 132000 328000 16300 5177000
2020-05-07 6850 144000 65700 58000 14400 101000 6320 32300 10200 8250 135000 1304000 75100 18300 32100 5960 38200 30800 78300 30900 73800 47400 134000 331000 16500 5291000
2020-05-08 6860 155000 67400 62600 15200 102000 6360 34700 10400 8720 137000 1344000 79700 18800 32700 6240 38800 31600 82700 31400 75500 48300 136000 335000 16800 5404000

Confirmed count scenario forecast (bold purple line in graphs) 2020-05-02 to 2020-05-10

DateUKEUATBEBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSENOCHAustraliaBrazilCanadaIndiaIndonesiaIranMalaysiaMexicoPhilippinesSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-FLUS-GAUS-ILUS-LAUS-MAUS-MIUS-NJUS-NYUS-WAWorld
2020-05-01 177454 991574 15531 49032 6895 7737 164077 9311 213435 5051 165764 2612 2085 2863 20833 207428 39791 13105 25351 12567 21520 7783 29705 6778 92202 56343 37257 10551 95646 6071 20739 8772 5951 122392 1103461 52318 15661 28764 4658 34720 26436 56055 28711 64311 42348 121190 308345 15010 4595039
2020-05-02 180000 999000 15600 49500 6900 7770 165000 9390 215000 5110 167000 2610 2090 2880 21100 209000 40000 13400 25400 12700 21800 7810 29800 6790 99000 57200 38300 10800 96000 6090 21400 8900 6110 124000 1116000 53000 15900 28600 4680 34800 26600 57700 28700 65200 42600 123000 312000 15100 4675000
2020-05-03 183000 1006000 15600 49900 6910 7800 166000 9500 216000 5180 168000 2610 2100 2920 21400 210000 40300 13600 25600 13000 22200 7840 29900 6800 105000 58200 39400 11000 97000 6140 22100 9080 6280 126000 1135000 54100 16200 28900 4770 35200 27200 59500 29000 66200 43300 124000 315000 15300 4754000
2020-05-04 186000 1013000 15700 50200 6910 7830 167000 9570 217000 5240 169000 2610 2110 2950 21500 211000 40500 13800 25800 13100 22600 7870 30000 6820 110000 59200 40100 11200 98000 6180 22800 9240 6450 127000 1152000 54700 16400 29100 4830 35500 27800 61200 29200 67000 43700 126000 318000 15500 4818000
2020-05-05 189000 1019000 15700 50600 6910 7850 168000 9640 218000 5280 170000 2620 2110 2980 21700 212000 40700 14000 25900 13300 22900 7900 30100 6830 115000 60100 41100 11400 99000 6210 23500 9450 6550 129000 1164000 55500 16600 29300 4900 35800 28400 62800 29400 67800 44100 127000 321000 15700 4883000
2020-05-06 192000 1025000 15700 50900 6910 7880 168000 9700 219000 5320 171000 2620 2120 3000 21900 213000 40900 14200 26000 13400 23100 7920 30200 6840 120000 61000 42000 11600 99000 6250 24500 9590 6640 131000 1177000 56200 16700 29400 4950 36100 28900 64000 29500 68000 44400 129000 323000 15800 4940000
2020-05-07 194000 1031000 15700 51200 6910 7900 169000 9760 220000 5350 171000 2620 2130 3010 22000 214000 41200 14300 26200 13600 23300 7940 30300 6850 124000 61600 42600 11700 100000 6270 25100 9640 6770 132000 1189000 56900 16800 29500 5000 36300 29300 64700 29700 68300 44700 130000 325000 15900 4987000
2020-05-08 196000 1035000 15800 51500 6910 7930 169000 9810 220000 5380 172000 2620 2130 3030 22200 214000 41400 14500 26300 13700 23500 7950 30400 6870 127000 62200 43100 11800 101000 6300 25700 9710 6820 134000 1200000 57100 16800 29700 5020 36500 29700 65300 29800 68600 44900 131000 327000 16000 5021000
2020-05-09 198000 1040000 15800 51800 6910 7950 170000 9850 221000 5400 172000 2620 2140 3050 22300 215000 41600 14600 26400 13800 23700 7970 30400 6880 129000 62600 43600 11900 101000 6320 26200 9750 6920 135000 1209000 57600 16800 29900 5070 36800 30100 66400 29900 68900 45100 132000 329000 16100 5067000
2020-05-10 200000 1044000 15800 52100 6910 7970 170000 9880 221000 5420 172000 2620 2150 3060 22500 216000 41800 14700 26500 13800 23800 7990 30500 6890 131000 62900 44000 12100 101000 6340 26700 9860 6980 136000 1216000 58000 16900 30100 5100 37000 30300 67600 30000 69200 45300 133000 331000 16200 5094000

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in Europe 2020-05-01

UKEUATBEBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSENOCH
Peak date04-1003-2803-2604-1503-2503-2803-2804-0403-2704-0604-1204-0203-3004-1004-1303-2104-1004-1904-1004-1104-2303-2703-23
Peak daily increment 5963 29742 875 1470 287 284 6005 333 8153 181 13253 96 76 128 985 5700 1173 409 904 376 655 298 1205
Days from 100 to peak 36 34 18 39 11 15 27 25 25 24 42 22 11 20 30 27 35 35 28 28 47 21 18
Days from peak/2 to peak 22 18 13 31 11 14 15 25 14 24 26 25 15 22 24 17 29 33 23 25 44 19 12
Days since peak 21 34 36 16 37 34 34 27 35 25 19 29 32 21 18 41 21 12 21 20 8 35 39

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed 2020-05-01

AustraliaBrazilCanadaIndiaIndonesiaIranMalaysiaMexicoPhilippinesSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-FLUS-GAUS-ILUS-LAUS-MAUS-MIUS-NJUS-NYUS-WAWorld
Peak date03-28 --04-16 -- --03-3104-02 --03-31 --04-1104-09 --04-2404-22 --04-0304-07 --04-0404-2404-0404-0404-0404-02 --
Peak daily increment 411 1872 3107 180 361 4741 31662 627 1200 1194 986 1782 2963 1659 3845 9745 528
Days from 100 to peak 18 36 35 24 17 23 37 40 34 19 22 19 43 17 20 27 26
Days from peak/2 to peak 14 27 28 25 13 17 20 35 29 13 17 13 30 13 13 15 22
Days since peak 34 15 31 29 31 20 22 7 9 28 24 27 7 27 27 27 29

Initial visual evaluation of forecasts of Confirmed