COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2020-05-04


Disclaimer

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. The documentation that is provided is still in progress and not peer reviewed. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.

Recent changes

[2020-03-24] Our forecasts are starting to overestimate in some cases. This was always expected to happen when the increase starts to slow down. Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, but only for Italy and Spain sofar.
[2020-03-26] Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, only for Italy.
[2020-03-31] Scenario forecasts, based on what happened in China earlier this year, are presented for several countries (line marked with x). Created more plausible 90% confidence bands (dotted line in same colour).
[2020-04-02] Now including more US States, based on New York Times data. And the world.
[2020-04-06] Added a post hoc estimate of the peak number of cases. This needs at least three confirmed observations (four for deaths) after the event. It is based on the averaged smooth trend, and can change later or be a local peak. It is marked with a vertical line with the date label, or a date with left arrow in the bottom left corner of the graph. This is backported to 2020-04-04.
[2020-04-08] Minor correction to peak estimates. Added table with scenario forecasts.
[2020-04-09] Added table with estimated peak dates (if happened) and dates to and since the peak. Note that this can be a local peak, and subsequent re-acceleration (or data revisions) can result in a new peak later.
[2020-04-10] Updated documentation with better description of short-term estimates and peak determination.
[2020-04-16] Added scenario forecasts to all graphs now. This would now be the preferred forecast for most.
This is the first time with a peak in confirmed UK cases (also for deaths, but this is uncertain because it is at the same date).
[2020-04-17] Bird and Nielsen look into nowcasting death counts in England.
[2020-04-24] A summary of our work on short-term COVID-19 forecasting appeared as a voxeu.
[2020-04-27] Our short-term COVID-19 forecasting paper is now available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06.
A small adjustment has been made to the scenario forecast methodology, and will be documented shortly.
[2020-04-29] See our blog entry at the International Institute of Forecasters.
US history of death counts revised in Johns Hopkins/CSSE data.
UK death counts have been revised to include the deaths in care homes. In the Johns Hopkins/CSSE data set, which we use, the entire history has been revised. So forecasts made up to 2020-04-29 cannot be compared to later outcomes. In the ECDC data set only the last observation has changed, causing a jump in the series.

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Confirmed count average forecast Europe (bold black line in graphs) 2020-05-05 to 2020-05-11

DateUKEUATBEBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSENOCH
2020-05-04 190584 1012468 15621 50267 6950 7819 166152 9670 218011 5327 167886 2632 2101 3035 21772 211938 40770 14006 25524 13512 22721 7904 29981
2020-05-05 195000 1018000 15700 50700 6970 7860 167000 9800 219000 5400 168000 2640 2110 3090 22000 213000 41100 14100 25600 13600 23100 7930 30100
2020-05-06 200000 1024000 15700 51200 6990 7910 168000 9900 220000 5480 169000 2650 2120 3150 22300 215000 41500 14400 25800 13900 23600 7970 30200
2020-05-07 204000 1029000 15800 51700 7020 7950 169000 10000 221000 5570 169000 2670 2120 3210 22600 217000 41800 14600 26000 14200 24000 8010 30300
2020-05-08 209000 1034000 15800 52200 7040 8000 170000 10100 222000 5660 170000 2680 2130 3270 22800 219000 42200 14900 26100 14500 24500 8060 30400
2020-05-09 214000 1039000 15900 52600 7060 8050 171000 10300 223000 5740 171000 2690 2140 3330 23100 220000 42600 15100 26300 14800 25000 8100 30500
2020-05-10 220000 1043000 15900 53200 7090 8100 172000 10400 224000 5830 171000 2700 2150 3390 23400 222000 43000 15400 26500 15100 25500 8140 30600
2020-05-11 225000 1047000 16000 53700 7110 8150 173000 10500 225000 5930 172000 2720 2160 3460 23700 224000 43400 15700 26700 15400 26000 8180 30800

Confirmed count average forecast (bold black line in graphs) 2020-05-05 to 2020-05-11

DateAustraliaBrazilCanadaIndiaIndonesiaIranMalaysiaMexicoPhilippinesSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-FLUS-GAUS-ILUS-LAUS-MAUS-MIUS-NJUS-NYUS-WAWorld
2020-05-04 6847 108620 61957 46437 11587 98647 6353 24905 9485 7220 127659 1180375 56333 16799 29973 5170 36889 28350 63840 29673 69087 43928 128269 318984 15673 4916921
2020-05-05 6850 114000 64500 49100 11800 99000 6390 26500 9700 7500 129000 1207000 57600 17200 30400 5400 37200 29000 67300 30000 70600 44500 130000 322000 15900 5025000
2020-05-06 6860 120000 67600 52700 12100 100000 6420 28300 9900 8000 131000 1236000 59100 17600 30900 5660 37800 29700 71700 30300 72100 45200 132000 326000 16100 5141000
2020-05-07 6880 127000 70900 56600 12500 101000 6470 30300 10100 8400 133000 1267000 60500 18000 31400 5940 38400 30400 76400 30700 73700 45900 134000 329000 16400 5255000
2020-05-08 6890 134000 74300 60800 12800 102000 6510 32300 10400 8900 135000 1298000 62100 18400 31900 6230 39100 31100 81500 31000 75300 46700 137000 333000 16600 5369000
2020-05-09 6900 142000 78000 65400 13200 103000 6550 34600 10600 9400 137000 1330000 63600 18800 32400 6530 39700 31900 86900 31400 77000 47500 139000 337000 16800 5483000
2020-05-10 6910 150000 81800 70300 13500 104000 6590 36900 10900 10000 139000 1364000 65200 19200 33000 6850 40400 32700 92700 31700 78700 48300 141000 341000 17100 5596000
2020-05-11 6920 158000 85800 75700 13900 105000 6620 39500 11200 10600 141000 1398000 66900 19700 33600 7180 41000 33500 98800 32100 80500 49100 144000 344000 17400 5710000

Confirmed count forecast Europe (bold red line in graphs) 2020-05-05 to 2020-05-11

DateUKEUATBEBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSENOCH
2020-05-04 190584 1012468 15621 50267 6950 7819 166152 9670 218011 5327 167886 2632 2101 3035 21772 211938 40770 14006 25524 13512 22721 7904 29981
2020-05-05 195000 1019000 15700 50700 6970 7860 167000 9800 219000 5410 169000 2640 2110 3080 22000 214000 41100 14200 25600 13800 23100 7950 30100
2020-05-06 199000 1025000 15700 51200 6990 7900 168000 9900 220000 5490 169000 2650 2120 3120 22300 215000 41400 14500 25800 14000 23500 7990 30200
2020-05-07 203000 1030000 15800 51600 7010 7940 169000 10000 221000 5570 170000 2660 2120 3170 22500 216000 41700 14800 25900 14300 23900 8040 30300
2020-05-08 208000 1035000 15800 52000 7030 7980 169000 10100 222000 5650 171000 2670 2130 3220 22800 218000 42000 15000 26000 14600 24300 8080 30400
2020-05-09 212000 1039000 15800 52400 7040 8020 170000 10300 223000 5730 172000 2680 2140 3260 23000 219000 42300 15300 26100 14900 24700 8130 30500
2020-05-10 217000 1043000 15900 52800 7060 8060 171000 10400 224000 5810 173000 2690 2140 3310 23300 221000 42600 15500 26200 15200 25200 8170 30600
2020-05-11 222000 1047000 15900 53300 7080 8100 172000 10500 225000 5900 174000 2700 2150 3360 23500 222000 43000 15800 26300 15500 25600 8220 30700

Confirmed count forecast (bold red line in graphs) 2020-05-05 to 2020-05-11

DateAustraliaBrazilCanadaIndiaIndonesiaIranMalaysiaMexicoPhilippinesSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-FLUS-GAUS-ILUS-LAUS-MAUS-MIUS-NJUS-NYUS-WAWorld
2020-05-04 6847 108620 61957 46437 11587 98647 6353 24905 9485 7220 127659 1180375 56333 16799 29973 5170 36889 28350 63840 29673 69087 43928 128269 318984 15673 4916921
2020-05-05 6870 114000 64800 49700 11900 100000 6430 26600 9700 7700 129000 1205000 57200 17200 30600 5460 37500 28900 67300 29900 70700 44400 130000 322000 15800 5026000
2020-05-06 6890 120000 67900 53600 12200 100000 6490 28400 9900 8200 131000 1229000 58300 17500 31100 5750 38200 29500 70900 30200 72200 44900 132000 325000 16000 5134000
2020-05-07 6900 127000 71100 57800 12600 101000 6560 30400 10200 8700 133000 1253000 59400 17800 31600 6050 38800 30100 74700 30400 73700 45400 135000 329000 16200 5242000
2020-05-08 6920 133000 74700 62400 12900 102000 6620 32400 10400 9200 134000 1277000 60600 18200 32100 6360 39500 30700 78800 30700 75200 45900 137000 332000 16300 5347000
2020-05-09 6940 140000 78400 67300 13300 103000 6680 34700 10700 9800 136000 1302000 61700 18500 32700 6690 40200 31300 83000 31000 76800 46400 139000 335000 16500 5453000
2020-05-10 6950 148000 82400 72700 13600 104000 6730 37100 10900 10400 137000 1327000 62800 18900 33200 7030 40900 31900 87500 31200 78400 46900 141000 338000 16700 5558000
2020-05-11 6970 156000 86600 78500 14000 105000 6790 39600 11200 11100 139000 1352000 64000 19300 33800 7400 41600 32600 92200 31500 80000 47400 143000 341000 16900 5664000

Confirmed count scenario forecast (bold purple line in graphs) 2020-05-05 to 2020-05-13

DateUKEUATBEBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSENOCHAustraliaBrazilCanadaIndiaIndonesiaIranMalaysiaMexicoPhilippinesSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-FLUS-GAUS-ILUS-LAUS-MAUS-MIUS-NJUS-NYUS-WAWorld
2020-05-04 190584 1012468 15621 50267 6950 7819 166152 9670 218011 5327 167886 2632 2101 3035 21772 211938 40770 14006 25524 13512 22721 7904 29981 6847 108620 61957 46437 11587 98647 6353 24905 9485 7220 127659 1180375 56333 16799 29973 5170 36889 28350 63840 29673 69087 43928 128269 318984 15673 4916921
2020-05-05 195000 1019000 15700 50600 6970 7860 167000 9700 220000 5400 168000 2630 2110 3090 21900 213000 41100 14100 25600 13600 23000 7920 30100 6860 112000 63400 47400 11700 99000 6420 25900 9700 7470 129000 1193000 57400 17000 30200 5320 37200 28900 65900 30000 70000 44500 130000 321000 15900 4997000
2020-05-06 198000 1025000 15700 50900 7000 7910 168000 9800 221000 5480 168000 2640 2120 3140 22100 215000 41300 14300 25700 13800 23200 7960 30200 6870 116000 65100 49200 12000 100000 6490 26900 9900 7760 131000 1212000 58500 17200 30500 5450 37900 29400 67900 30300 70700 45000 132000 323000 16100 5072000
2020-05-07 202000 1030000 15700 51200 7030 7950 169000 9900 222000 5540 168000 2640 2130 3190 22200 216000 41600 14500 25800 14000 23400 7980 30200 6890 118000 66200 50600 12200 101000 6550 27600 10100 8050 132000 1227000 59400 17400 30800 5590 38300 30000 69100 30600 71000 45300 133000 325000 16300 5134000
2020-05-08 204000 1035000 15700 51500 7050 7980 169000 9900 224000 5600 168000 2640 2130 3230 22300 217000 41900 14600 25900 14200 23600 8000 30300 6910 120000 67300 51500 12300 101000 6620 28300 10300 8280 134000 1238000 60200 17500 31200 5690 38800 30300 70500 30800 71400 45600 135000 327000 16400 5180000
2020-05-09 207000 1040000 15800 51900 7080 8010 169000 10000 225000 5650 168000 2640 2140 3270 22500 218000 42100 14700 26000 14300 23600 8020 30300 6920 123000 68200 52600 12400 102000 6670 29000 10400 8510 135000 1249000 60900 17700 31400 5770 39100 30600 71800 31000 71400 45900 137000 329000 16500 5236000
2020-05-10 209000 1044000 15800 52100 7100 8030 170000 10000 225000 5690 168000 2640 2150 3310 22700 218000 42300 14800 26100 14400 23700 8040 30400 6940 125000 69100 53600 12500 103000 6720 29400 10500 8640 136000 1257000 61500 17700 31700 5810 39500 31000 73000 31200 71500 46100 138000 331000 16700 5268000
2020-05-11 210000 1048000 15800 52400 7120 8050 170000 10100 226000 5730 168000 2640 2160 3340 22800 219000 42500 14900 26200 14500 23700 8050 30400 6940 126000 69800 54100 12500 103000 6760 29700 10600 8760 137000 1264000 61900 17800 31900 5880 39800 31300 73300 31300 71900 46200 139000 333000 16700 5294000
2020-05-12 212000 1051000 15800 52600 7130 8080 171000 10100 227000 5770 168000 2640 2170 3370 23000 220000 42700 15000 26300 14500 23900 8070 30400 6950 127000 70300 54600 12600 104000 6800 30100 10700 8950 138000 1272000 62500 17800 32100 5920 40100 31500 73800 31400 72000 46400 139000 335000 16800 5319000
2020-05-13 213000 1054000 15800 52900 7150 8110 171000 10200 227000 5800 168000 2640 2170 3400 23100 220000 42900 15100 26400 14700 23900 8090 30500 6960 129000 71300 55000 12700 104000 6830 30500 10800 9020 138000 1277000 62900 17800 32200 5920 40300 31700 74000 31600 72500 46500 140000 336000 16900 5335000

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in Europe 2020-05-04

UKEUATBEBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSENOCH
Peak date04-1003-2803-2604-1503-2503-2803-2804-0403-2704-0604-1204-0203-3004-1004-1303-2104-1004-1904-1004-1104-2403-2703-23
Peak daily increment 5962 29743 875 1470 287 284 6005 333 8153 181 13254 96 76 128 985 5699 1173 408 904 376 650 298 1205
Days from 100 to peak 36 34 18 39 11 15 27 25 25 24 42 22 11 20 30 27 35 35 28 28 48 21 18
Days from peak/2 to peak 22 18 13 31 11 14 15 25 14 24 26 25 15 22 24 17 29 33 23 25 45 19 12
Days since peak 24 37 39 19 40 37 37 30 38 28 22 32 35 24 21 44 24 15 24 23 10 38 42

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed 2020-05-04

AustraliaBrazilCanadaIndiaIndonesiaIranMalaysiaMexicoPhilippinesSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-FLUS-GAUS-ILUS-LAUS-MAUS-MIUS-NJUS-NYUS-WAWorld
Peak date03-2804-30 -- --04-2403-3104-02 --03-31 --04-1104-0904-2304-2404-22 --04-0304-07 --04-0404-2404-0404-0404-0404-0205-01
Peak daily increment 411 6301 356 3107 180 361 4742 31669 1785 630 1226 1194 986 1782 3040 1659 3846 9745 528 120377
Days from 100 to peak 18 47 40 35 24 17 23 37 46 40 34 19 22 19 43 17 20 27 26 100
Days from peak/2 to peak 14 34 38 28 25 13 17 20 35 35 28 13 17 13 30 13 13 15 22 85
Days since peak 37 4 10 34 32 34 23 25 11 10 12 31 27 30 10 30 30 30 32 3

Initial visual evaluation of forecasts of Confirmed