COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2020-05-06


Disclaimer

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. The documentation that is provided is still in progress and not peer reviewed. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.

Recent changes

[2020-03-24] Our forecasts are starting to overestimate in some cases. This was always expected to happen when the increase starts to slow down. Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, but only for Italy and Spain sofar.
[2020-03-26] Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, only for Italy.
[2020-03-31] Scenario forecasts, based on what happened in China earlier this year, are presented for several countries (line marked with x). Created more plausible 90% confidence bands (dotted line in same colour).
[2020-04-02] Now including more US States, based on New York Times data. And the world.
[2020-04-06] Added a post hoc estimate of the peak number of cases. This needs at least three confirmed observations (four for deaths) after the event. It is based on the averaged smooth trend, and can change later or be a local peak. It is marked with a vertical line with the date label, or a date with left arrow in the bottom left corner of the graph. This is backported to 2020-04-04.
[2020-04-08] Minor correction to peak estimates. Added table with scenario forecasts.
[2020-04-09] Added table with estimated peak dates (if happened) and dates to and since the peak. Note that this can be a local peak, and subsequent re-acceleration (or data revisions) can result in a new peak later.
[2020-04-10] Updated documentation with better description of short-term estimates and peak determination.
[2020-04-16] Added scenario forecasts to all graphs now. This would now be the preferred forecast for most.
This is the first time with a peak in confirmed UK cases (also for deaths, but this is uncertain because it is at the same date).
[2020-04-17] Bird and Nielsen look into nowcasting death counts in England.
[2020-04-24] A summary of our work on short-term COVID-19 forecasting appeared as a voxeu.
[2020-04-27] Our short-term COVID-19 forecasting paper is now available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06.
A small adjustment has been made to the scenario forecast methodology, and will be documented shortly.
[2020-04-29] See our blog entry at the International Institute of Forecasters.
US history of death counts revised in Johns Hopkins/CSSE data.
UK death counts have been revised to include the deaths in care homes. In the Johns Hopkins/CSSE data set, which we use, the entire history has been revised. So forecasts made up to 2020-04-29 cannot be compared to later outcomes. In the ECDC data set only the last observation has changed, causing a jump in the series.
[2020-05-06] The New York Times is in the process of redefining its US state data. Unfortunately, at the moment only the last observation has changed (e.g New York deaths jumped from 19645 on 2020-05-05 to 25956 a day later). This means the data is currently useless; however it does bring it close to the Johns Hopkins/CSSE count (25626 on 2020-05-06). The aggregate US count is based on JH/CSSE so unaffected. We now use Johns Hopkins/CSSE US state data, including all states with sufficient counts. So the new forecasts cannot be compared to those previously.
A minor change is that we show the graph without scenario forecast if no peak has been detected yet.

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Confirmed count average forecast Europe (bold black line in graphs) 2020-05-07 to 2020-05-13

DateUKEUATBEBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSENOCH
2020-05-06 201101 1029680 15684 50781 6992 7974 168162 9938 220325 5573 172465 2663 2119 3111 22248 214457 41319 14740 26182 14107 23918 7996 30060
2020-05-07 205000 1033000 15700 51100 7010 8000 169000 10000 221000 5600 173000 2670 2130 3150 22500 216000 41600 14900 26200 14300 24100 8030 30100
2020-05-08 209000 1038000 15800 51500 7040 8040 170000 10100 222000 5680 173000 2680 2130 3200 22700 217000 41900 15100 26300 14600 24400 8070 30200
2020-05-09 214000 1043000 15800 51800 7060 8090 171000 10300 223000 5760 173000 2690 2140 3250 23000 219000 42200 15400 26500 14900 24800 8110 30300
2020-05-10 219000 1048000 15800 52200 7080 8140 171000 10400 224000 5850 174000 2700 2150 3300 23200 220000 42600 15700 26600 15200 25300 8150 30400
2020-05-11 224000 1053000 15900 52600 7100 8190 172000 10500 226000 5940 174000 2710 2150 3350 23500 221000 42900 16000 26800 15500 25700 8190 30500
2020-05-12 229000 1057000 15900 53000 7130 8240 173000 10600 227000 6030 175000 2720 2160 3400 23700 223000 43200 16300 27000 15800 26100 8240 30600
2020-05-13 234000 1061000 16000 53400 7150 8290 174000 10800 228000 6120 175000 2730 2170 3450 24000 224000 43500 16600 27100 16200 26600 8280 30700

Confirmed count average forecast (bold black line in graphs) 2020-05-07 to 2020-05-13

DateAustraliaBrazilCanadaIndiaIndonesiaIranMalaysiaMexicoPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-NCUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-RIUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WI
2020-05-06 6894 126611 64694 52987 12438 101650 6428 27634 10004 165929 7808 131744 1228603 8691 3466 9707 60616 17668 30690 5461 5742 37971 29198 10391 2158 68059 21870 5993 5893 30336 71665 28163 43062 8568 8617 8424 13053 6689 2721 131296 4291 5741 323978 21576 4202 2916 54800 8519 6936 2780 13518 34928 5178 20257 15844 8901
2020-05-07 6910 132000 66200 56800 12900 102000 6470 29300 10200 178000 8200 133000 1254000 9000 3480 10200 63100 17900 31000 5590 5770 38500 29400 10800 2170 70400 22300 6330 6040 30500 72800 29100 43400 9100 8800 8700 13200 7100 2780 133000 4410 5820 327000 22000 4280 2940 55700 8600 7040 2830 13800 36300 5310 20800 16000 9200
2020-05-08 6920 141000 68000 61100 13500 103000 6520 31200 10400 193000 8700 135000 1282000 9400 3530 10700 66000 18200 31400 5760 5850 39200 29900 11400 2200 73000 22900 6710 6260 30900 74300 30100 43900 9800 9000 9100 13500 7500 2870 135000 4570 5930 330000 22600 4370 2990 56700 8780 7180 2900 14300 38000 5450 21500 16300 9500
2020-05-09 6940 150000 69700 65700 14100 104000 6570 33200 10600 208000 9300 137000 1310000 9800 3590 11200 69000 18600 31900 5930 5940 39800 30500 11900 2220 75600 23500 7110 6540 31200 75700 31200 44300 10600 9200 9500 13800 8000 2960 137000 4730 6030 333000 23100 4470 3050 57800 8970 7310 2970 14700 39800 5600 22300 16500 9900
2020-05-10 6950 160000 71600 70800 14700 105000 6610 35400 10900 225000 9900 138000 1340000 10200 3640 11800 72200 19000 32400 6110 6030 40400 31000 12500 2240 78300 24100 7530 6830 31500 77200 32300 44900 11400 9400 9900 14200 8500 3050 139000 4900 6140 336000 23700 4560 3120 58900 9160 7450 3040 15200 41800 5750 23200 16700 10200
2020-05-11 6970 171000 73400 76200 15300 106000 6650 37700 11200 243000 10500 140000 1370000 10600 3700 12400 75500 19400 32900 6300 6160 41100 31600 13100 2270 81000 24700 7980 7140 31800 78800 33400 45400 12300 9700 10300 14600 9000 3150 141000 5080 6240 339000 24200 4660 3180 60000 9350 7590 3120 15700 43800 5900 24000 17000 10600
2020-05-12 6980 183000 75300 82100 16000 107000 6680 40100 11400 262000 11100 142000 1402000 11100 3760 13100 79000 19800 33400 6490 6290 41800 32300 13800 2290 83800 25400 8460 7460 32100 80400 34600 45900 13200 9900 10700 15000 9600 3250 144000 5260 6360 342000 24800 4760 3240 61200 9550 7730 3210 16200 45900 6060 24900 17200 11000
2020-05-13 6990 195000 77300 88500 16700 108000 6710 42700 11700 284000 11800 144000 1434000 11600 3820 13800 82700 20200 33900 6690 6430 42400 32900 14500 2320 86700 26100 8970 7800 32400 82000 35900 46400 14300 10100 11200 15400 10200 3350 146000 5450 6470 345000 25500 4860 3310 62400 9760 7880 3290 16800 48000 6220 25900 17500 11400

Confirmed count forecast Europe (bold red line in graphs) 2020-05-07 to 2020-05-13

DateUKEUATBEBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSENOCH
2020-05-06 201101 1029680 15684 50781 6992 7974 168162 9938 220325 5573 172465 2663 2119 3111 22248 214457 41319 14740 26182 14107 23918 7996 30060
2020-05-07 206000 1037000 15700 51100 7020 8030 169000 10100 221000 5640 173000 2680 2130 3150 22500 216000 41600 15000 26400 14400 24300 8040 30100
2020-05-08 210000 1044000 15800 51400 7050 8090 170000 10200 222000 5740 174000 2690 2130 3190 22700 217000 41900 15300 26700 14600 24800 8080 30200
2020-05-09 215000 1051000 15800 51700 7070 8150 171000 10300 223000 5840 175000 2700 2140 3230 22900 218000 42100 15600 26900 14900 25200 8120 30300
2020-05-10 220000 1058000 15800 52000 7100 8210 172000 10400 224000 5930 176000 2720 2150 3280 23200 220000 42400 15900 27200 15200 25700 8160 30300
2020-05-11 225000 1064000 15900 52300 7120 8260 173000 10500 225000 6030 178000 2730 2160 3320 23400 221000 42700 16300 27500 15500 26200 8210 30400
2020-05-12 230000 1070000 15900 52600 7140 8320 174000 10700 226000 6130 179000 2750 2160 3360 23700 222000 43000 16600 27700 15800 26700 8250 30500
2020-05-13 235000 1076000 15900 52900 7170 8380 175000 10800 227000 6230 180000 2760 2170 3400 23900 223000 43300 16900 28000 16100 27200 8290 30500

Confirmed count forecast (bold red line in graphs) 2020-05-07 to 2020-05-13

DateAustraliaBrazilCanadaIndiaIndonesiaIranMalaysiaMexicoPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-NCUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-RIUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WI
2020-05-06 6894 126611 64694 52987 12438 101650 6428 27634 10004 165929 7808 131744 1228603 8691 3466 9707 60616 17668 30690 5461 5742 37971 29198 10391 2158 68059 21870 5993 5893 30336 71665 28163 43062 8568 8617 8424 13053 6689 2721 131296 4291 5741 323978 21576 4202 2916 54800 8519 6936 2780 13518 34928 5178 20257 15844 8901
2020-05-07 6920 133000 66300 57700 12900 103000 6480 29400 10200 179000 8300 133000 1252000 9000 3510 10100 63500 18100 31200 5590 5860 38600 29700 10700 2190 70500 22400 6390 6130 30600 73000 29200 43500 9300 8800 8800 13300 6990 2810 133000 4430 5830 327000 22200 4270 2970 55700 8610 7050 2830 13800 36500 5310 20600 16100 9200
2020-05-08 6940 142000 68000 62500 13500 104000 6530 31400 10500 193000 8800 135000 1276000 9400 3570 10600 66600 18400 31600 5730 6050 39200 30400 11000 2210 73000 23000 6770 6380 30900 74500 30200 44000 10000 9000 9100 13700 7320 2910 134000 4580 5910 330000 22800 4350 3040 56700 8710 7150 2880 14200 38200 5440 21000 16300 9600
2020-05-09 6960 152000 69600 67700 14000 105000 6570 33400 10700 207000 9200 137000 1300000 9700 3630 11200 69800 18800 32100 5870 6240 39700 31100 11400 2240 75500 23600 7160 6680 31200 75900 31200 44400 10700 9200 9500 14100 7660 3000 136000 4730 6000 332000 23300 4420 3110 57700 8790 7260 2930 14500 39900 5570 21300 16600 9900
2020-05-10 6970 163000 71200 73400 14600 106000 6610 35600 11000 223000 9800 139000 1323000 10100 3690 11700 73200 19200 32600 6020 6430 40300 31700 11700 2270 78000 24200 7580 6980 31500 77400 32300 44900 11600 9400 9800 14500 8010 3090 138000 4890 6080 335000 24000 4500 3170 58700 8870 7360 2980 14800 41800 5710 21700 16800 10300
2020-05-11 6990 174000 72900 79600 15300 107000 6650 38000 11200 241000 10300 140000 1347000 10500 3750 12300 76800 19600 33100 6170 6630 40900 32400 12100 2300 80600 24900 8030 7300 31900 78900 33400 45300 12400 9600 10200 14900 8380 3190 139000 5040 6170 338000 24600 4570 3240 59700 8950 7470 3030 15200 43700 5840 22000 17100 10700
2020-05-12 7010 186000 74600 86300 15900 108000 6690 40500 11500 259000 10800 142000 1371000 10900 3810 13000 80600 20000 33600 6330 6830 41500 33100 12400 2320 83300 25600 8500 7630 32200 80500 34500 45800 13400 9800 10600 15300 8770 3290 141000 5210 6250 341000 25200 4650 3310 60700 9040 7580 3080 15500 45700 5980 22400 17300 11100
2020-05-13 7020 199000 76400 93600 16600 109000 6720 43100 11700 280000 11400 144000 1396000 11400 3880 13600 84500 20400 34100 6490 7040 42100 33800 12800 2350 86100 26300 9000 7970 32500 82000 35700 46200 14400 10000 11100 15800 9190 3400 142000 5380 6340 344000 25900 4730 3380 61700 9120 7690 3130 15900 47800 6130 22800 17600 11500

Confirmed count scenario forecast (bold purple line in graphs) 2020-05-07 to 2020-05-15

DateUKEUATBEBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSENOCHAustraliaBrazilCanadaIndiaIndonesiaIranMalaysiaMexicoPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-NCUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-RIUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WI
2020-05-06 201101 1029680 15684 50781 6992 7974 168162 9938 220325 5573 172465 2663 2119 3111 22248 214457 41319 14740 26182 14107 23918 7996 30060 6894 126611 64694 52987 12438 101650 6428 27634 10004 165929 7808 131744 1228603 8691 3466 9707 60616 17668 30690 5461 5742 37971 29198 10391 2158 68059 21870 5993 5893 30336 71665 28163 43062 8568 8617 8424 13053 6689 2721 131296 4291 5741 323978 21576 4202 2916 54800 8519 6936 2780 13518 34928 5178 20257 15844 8901
2020-05-07 204000 1033000 15700 51100 7030 8000 169000 10000 222000 5590 172000 2660 2130 3150 22400 216000 41600 14900 26200 14300 24200 8030 30100 6910 128000 66100 55100 12700 102000 6490 28800 10200 174000 8200 133000 1243000 8870 3470 9900 61800 17800 31300 5590 5740 38600 29500 10700 2180 69800 22100 6220 5990 30600 72300 28900 43300 9000 8820 8630 13100 6930 2780 133000 4400 5830 326000 22000 4280 2960 55600 8710 7030 2820 13900 35900 5290 20900 16000 9200
2020-05-08 207000 1039000 15700 51400 7060 8050 169000 10100 223000 5660 172000 2670 2140 3190 22600 217000 41900 15100 26200 14600 24500 8070 30200 6930 133000 67200 57300 13000 103000 6540 29900 10300 181000 8600 134000 1259000 9040 3480 10200 63200 18100 31800 5700 5740 39100 29900 11000 2210 71500 22500 6410 6110 30800 73100 29600 43600 9500 9000 8800 13400 7170 2830 135000 4500 5890 327000 22400 4340 3010 56300 8820 7120 2870 14200 36800 5390 21300 16200 9400
2020-05-09 210000 1044000 15700 51700 7090 8090 170000 10200 224000 5710 172000 2670 2140 3220 22800 218000 42100 15300 26200 14800 24700 8100 30200 6950 137000 68300 59100 13200 104000 6570 30900 10500 188000 8900 135000 1275000 9140 3490 10400 64400 18400 32300 5770 5740 39700 30300 11300 2240 73000 22800 6570 6220 31000 73900 30100 43900 9900 9160 8950 13500 7360 2870 136000 4580 5960 329000 22800 4380 3060 56900 8900 7170 2910 14400 37500 5480 21600 16400 9600
2020-05-10 212000 1048000 15700 52000 7120 8130 170000 10300 225000 5760 172000 2680 2150 3240 23100 219000 42400 15400 26300 14900 25000 8140 30200 6970 139000 69200 60000 13400 105000 6600 31900 10700 191000 9200 136000 1288000 9250 3520 10600 65400 18600 32700 5840 5740 40100 30600 11500 2260 74400 23100 6720 6320 31200 74600 30600 44100 10200 9300 9090 13700 7490 2900 138000 4650 6000 330000 23100 4430 3110 57500 8930 7210 2940 14600 38000 5560 21900 16500 9800
2020-05-11 214000 1052000 15800 52200 7140 8180 171000 10400 225000 5800 172000 2680 2160 3270 23300 220000 42600 15600 26400 15100 25100 8170 30300 6990 140000 70100 61200 13600 105000 6640 32700 10800 196000 9400 137000 1300000 9340 3530 10800 66400 18900 33200 5930 5740 40500 30900 11700 2280 75500 23300 6880 6390 31400 75100 31000 44200 10400 9430 9200 13800 7590 2940 139000 4710 6050 332000 23400 4460 3150 58000 9000 7260 2980 14800 38500 5620 22200 16600 10000
2020-05-12 216000 1057000 15800 52500 7170 8230 171000 10400 226000 5840 172000 2680 2170 3290 23500 221000 42800 15700 26500 15200 25300 8200 30300 7010 143000 70800 62500 13700 106000 6660 33300 10900 200000 9600 138000 1309000 9450 3530 11000 67300 19100 33500 5980 5750 40800 31200 11800 2290 76300 23500 6930 6440 31500 75900 31400 44300 10600 9510 9300 13900 7700 2970 140000 4770 6090 333000 23700 4510 3170 58400 9090 7300 3010 14900 39000 5680 22400 16700 10100
2020-05-13 217000 1059000 15800 52700 7190 8270 171000 10500 226000 5880 172000 2680 2180 3300 23600 221000 43000 15800 26600 15300 25400 8230 30300 7020 145000 71400 63100 13800 106000 6670 33900 10900 204000 9700 138000 1316000 9530 3530 11100 67900 19400 33800 6030 5760 41000 31400 12000 2310 76900 23700 7010 6500 31600 76700 31700 44500 10700 9610 9350 14100 7750 3000 141000 4820 6130 335000 23900 4530 3190 58700 9160 7340 3030 15000 39300 5720 22400 16800 10200
2020-05-14 218000 1063000 15800 53000 7220 8300 172000 10500 226000 5910 172000 2680 2180 3330 23800 222000 43100 15900 26800 15400 25600 8250 30400 7040 148000 72000 63900 13900 107000 6680 34400 10900 206000 9900 139000 1323000 9580 3530 11200 68700 19500 34200 6060 5780 41300 31600 12100 2320 77500 23800 7090 6580 31700 77300 31800 44700 10900 9680 9400 14100 7800 3010 142000 4850 6180 336000 24100 4560 3230 59100 9250 7390 3060 15100 39600 5770 22600 16900 10200
2020-05-15 219000 1066000 15800 53200 7240 8340 172000 10600 227000 5960 172000 2680 2190 3350 24000 222000 43300 16000 26900 15500 25700 8270 30400 7050 150000 72400 64400 14000 107000 6690 34500 10900 207000 10000 139000 1330000 9610 3530 11300 69400 19700 34300 6070 5800 41500 31700 12200 2330 77800 24000 7130 6650 31800 77900 31900 44900 11000 9760 9470 14200 7820 3030 143000 4890 6200 337000 24300 4570 3240 59400 9370 7420 3080 15100 39900 5800 22600 16900 10300

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in Europe 2020-05-06

UKEUATBEBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSENOCH
Peak date04-1003-2803-2604-1503-2503-2803-2804-0403-2704-0604-1204-0203-3004-1004-1303-2104-1004-1904-1004-1104-2403-2703-23
Peak daily increment 5961 29744 875 1470 287 284 6004 333 8153 181 13255 96 76 128 985 5699 1173 404 904 376 655 298 1205
Days from 100 to peak 36 34 18 39 11 15 27 25 25 24 42 22 11 20 30 27 35 35 28 28 48 21 18
Days from peak/2 to peak 22 18 13 31 11 14 15 25 14 24 26 25 15 22 24 17 29 33 23 25 45 19 12
Days since peak 26 39 41 21 42 39 39 32 40 30 24 34 37 26 23 46 26 17 26 25 12 40 44

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed 2020-05-06

AustraliaBrazilCanadaIndiaIndonesiaIranMalaysiaMexicoPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-NCUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-RIUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WI
Peak date03-28 --05-03 -- --03-3104-02 --03-31 -- --04-1104-09 --04-23 -- --04-2404-2205-0104-2604-0204-1405-0204-0205-0104-27 -- --04-0404-2405-0104-03 --04-10 --04-3005-0105-0204-0705-0204-0404-0904-1904-0404-1204-0904-2004-0204-1505-01 --04-0405-0103-28 --
Peak daily increment 411 1906 3107 180 361 4742 31672 194 648 1234 205 249 1289 909 570 141 2661 735 1780 3171 1089 1616 271 425 444 97 4368 178 181 10035 1124 133 80 1693 429 214 152 589 152 902 460
Days from 100 to peak 18 53 35 24 17 23 37 30 40 34 40 32 17 29 40 8 46 37 19 42 43 16 19 42 33 38 22 38 15 31 31 11 23 23 26 13 15 44 14 43 20
Days from peak/2 to peak 14 44 28 25 13 17 20 30 35 28 40 31 12 24 35 9 38 33 12 29 36 12 18 40 29 43 15 39 15 20 26 13 27 16 21 13 17 40 15 36 17
Days since peak 39 3 36 34 36 25 27 13 12 14 5 10 34 22 4 34 5 9 32 12 5 33 26 6 5 4 29 4 32 27 17 32 24 27 16 34 21 5 32 5 39

Initial visual evaluation of forecasts of Confirmed