COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2020-05-11


Disclaimer

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. The documentation that is provided is still in progress and not peer reviewed. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.

Recent changes

[2020-03-24] Our forecasts are starting to overestimate in some cases. This was always expected to happen when the increase starts to slow down. Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, but only for Italy and Spain sofar.
[2020-03-26] Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, only for Italy.
[2020-03-31] Scenario forecasts, based on what happened in China earlier this year, are presented for several countries (line marked with x). Created more plausible 90% confidence bands (dotted line in same colour).
[2020-04-02] Now including more US States, based on New York Times data. And the world.
[2020-04-06] Added a post hoc estimate of the peak number of cases. This needs at least three confirmed observations (four for deaths) after the event. It is based on the averaged smooth trend, and can change later or be a local peak. It is marked with a vertical line with the date label, or a date with left arrow in the bottom left corner of the graph. This is backported to 2020-04-04.
[2020-04-08] Minor correction to peak estimates. Added table with scenario forecasts.
[2020-04-09] Added table with estimated peak dates (if happened) and dates to and since the peak. Note that this can be a local peak, and subsequent re-acceleration (or data revisions) can result in a new peak later.
[2020-04-10] Updated documentation with better description of short-term estimates and peak determination.
[2020-04-16] Added scenario forecasts to all graphs now. This would now be the preferred forecast for most.
This is the first time with a peak in confirmed UK cases (also for deaths, but this is uncertain because it is at the same date).
[2020-04-17] Bird and Nielsen look into nowcasting death counts in England.
[2020-04-24] A summary of our work on short-term COVID-19 forecasting appeared as a voxeu.
[2020-04-27] Our short-term COVID-19 forecasting paper is now available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06.
A small adjustment has been made to the scenario forecast methodology, and will be documented shortly.
[2020-04-29] See our blog entry at the International Institute of Forecasters.
US history of death counts revised in Johns Hopkins/CSSE data.
UK death counts have been revised to include the deaths in care homes. In the Johns Hopkins/CSSE data set, which we use, the entire history has been revised. So forecasts made up to 2020-04-29 cannot be compared to later outcomes. In the ECDC data set only the last observation has changed, causing a jump in the series.
[2020-05-06] The New York Times is in the process of redefining its US state data. Unfortunately, at the moment only the last observation has changed (e.g New York deaths jumped from 19645 on 2020-05-05 to 25956 a day later). This means the data is currently useless; however it does bring it close to the Johns Hopkins/CSSE count (25626 on 2020-05-06). The aggregate US count is based on JH/CSSE so unaffected. We now use Johns Hopkins/CSSE US state data, including all states with sufficient counts. So the new forecasts cannot be compared to those previously.
A minor change is that we show the graph without scenario forecast if no peak has been detected yet.

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Confirmed count average forecast Europe (bold black line in graphs) 2020-05-12 to 2020-05-18

DateUKEUATBEBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSENOCH
2020-05-11 223060 1064072 15882 53449 7114 8176 172576 10513 227436 5984 175479 2726 2196 3284 23135 219814 42788 16326 27679 15588 26670 8132 30344
2020-05-12 227000 1069000 15900 53800 7130 8210 173000 10600 228000 6060 176000 2740 2210 3310 23300 221000 43000 16600 27900 15800 27100 8160 30400
2020-05-13 231000 1075000 16000 54200 7160 8260 174000 10700 228000 6140 177000 2750 2220 3340 23500 222000 43300 16900 28100 16100 27600 8190 30400
2020-05-14 236000 1081000 16000 54700 7180 8300 175000 10800 229000 6230 178000 2760 2230 3370 23700 223000 43600 17200 28400 16400 28100 8220 30500
2020-05-15 240000 1086000 16000 55100 7210 8340 176000 11000 231000 6320 179000 2780 2250 3410 23900 224000 43900 17500 28700 16700 28700 8260 30500
2020-05-16 244000 1090000 16100 55500 7230 8390 177000 11100 232000 6400 179000 2790 2260 3440 24100 225000 44100 17800 28900 17000 29200 8290 30600
2020-05-17 249000 1095000 16100 56000 7260 8430 178000 11200 233000 6500 180000 2800 2270 3470 24300 226000 44400 18100 29200 17300 29800 8330 30700
2020-05-18 254000 1099000 16200 56400 7280 8480 179000 11300 234000 6590 181000 2810 2290 3500 24400 228000 44700 18500 29500 17600 30300 8360 30700

Confirmed count average forecast (bold black line in graphs) 2020-05-12 to 2020-05-18

DateAustraliaBrazilCanadaIndiaIndonesiaIranMalaysiaMexicoPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-NCUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-RIUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WI
2020-05-11 6970 169594 71264 70768 14265 109286 6726 36327 11086 221344 10652 139771 1347881 10164 3912 11383 69329 19726 33492 6389 6525 40932 31534 12368 2260 78857 24627 7159 6646 31751 78140 33373 45263 11774 9374 9674 15274 8407 3129 140206 5039 6143 337055 24777 4613 3286 60459 10292 7792 3614 15111 40555 5856 25070 17084 10418
2020-05-12 6980 180000 72400 75000 14600 110000 6760 37900 11200 232000 11200 141000 1369000 10400 3960 11700 71800 20000 33900 6550 6640 41300 32000 12600 2270 80500 25100 7340 6750 32000 79200 34300 45700 12400 9500 9900 15700 8700 3190 142000 5130 6190 339000 25300 4680 3350 61400 10600 7930 3720 15200 41300 5980 25400 17200 10700
2020-05-13 7000 193000 73600 81000 14900 112000 6800 39700 11400 244000 11900 143000 1393000 10700 4010 12100 75000 20400 34400 6720 6770 41800 32500 12900 2280 82500 25700 7570 6910 32200 80400 35200 46100 13100 9600 10100 16100 9100 3260 143000 5250 6260 342000 25900 4750 3420 62400 11000 8070 3840 15300 42300 6110 26100 17400 11000
2020-05-14 7010 207000 74900 86000 15300 113000 6840 41600 11600 256000 12600 144000 1418000 11000 4060 12500 78300 20800 34900 6900 6910 42300 32900 13300 2290 84600 26300 7810 7070 32500 81700 36200 46500 13900 9800 10400 16600 9400 3340 145000 5390 6330 344000 26500 4830 3490 63400 11400 8220 3980 15500 43300 6240 26900 17600 11300
2020-05-15 7020 222000 76200 92000 15700 115000 6870 43600 11800 269000 13300 146000 1443000 11300 4130 12900 81800 21200 35400 7080 7070 42900 33500 13600 2310 86600 26800 8050 7230 32800 83000 37200 46900 14700 9900 10700 17100 9800 3410 147000 5520 6410 347000 27100 4900 3570 64400 11900 8370 4140 15700 44400 6370 27600 17900 11600
2020-05-16 7040 239000 77500 99000 16100 116000 6900 45600 12000 282000 14100 147000 1468000 11600 4190 13300 85500 21700 35900 7260 7230 43400 34000 14000 2330 88700 27400 8300 7400 33100 84400 38300 47300 15600 10100 10900 17500 10300 3490 148000 5660 6480 349000 27800 4980 3640 65400 12400 8520 4300 15900 45500 6510 28400 18100 12000
2020-05-17 7050 256000 78800 106000 16500 117000 6920 47800 12200 297000 14900 149000 1495000 11900 4260 13700 89300 22100 36400 7450 7400 43900 34500 14400 2350 90800 28000 8570 7570 33400 85700 39400 47800 16600 10200 11200 18000 10700 3570 150000 5810 6560 352000 28400 5060 3720 66500 13000 8680 4480 16100 46600 6650 29200 18300 12300
2020-05-18 7060 275000 80200 113000 16900 119000 6940 50100 12400 312000 15800 151000 1522000 12300 4330 14200 93200 22500 37000 7650 7570 44500 35000 14700 2370 93000 28700 8840 7750 33700 87100 40500 48200 17600 10400 11500 18500 11200 3660 152000 5960 6630 355000 29100 5150 3800 67600 13700 8840 4670 16400 47800 6800 30100 18500 12700

Confirmed count forecast Europe (bold red line in graphs) 2020-05-12 to 2020-05-18

DateUKEUATBEBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSENOCH
2020-05-11 223060 1064072 15882 53449 7114 8176 172576 10513 227436 5984 175479 2726 2196 3284 23135 219814 42788 16326 27679 15588 26670 8132 30344
2020-05-12 227000 1071000 15900 53900 7140 8220 173000 10600 229000 6040 176000 2740 2210 3310 23300 221000 43100 16600 27900 15800 27000 8160 30400
2020-05-13 231000 1077000 16000 54300 7160 8260 174000 10700 230000 6100 177000 2750 2220 3340 23500 222000 43300 16900 28100 16000 27400 8190 30400
2020-05-14 235000 1082000 16000 54800 7190 8300 175000 10800 232000 6160 177000 2770 2230 3370 23600 223000 43600 17200 28300 16300 27700 8210 30500
2020-05-15 239000 1088000 16000 55200 7210 8340 176000 10900 233000 6220 178000 2780 2240 3400 23800 224000 43800 17500 28600 16500 28100 8240 30500
2020-05-16 243000 1093000 16100 55700 7230 8390 177000 11000 235000 6270 179000 2790 2250 3430 24000 225000 44000 17800 28800 16700 28400 8260 30600
2020-05-17 247000 1097000 16100 56100 7260 8430 177000 11100 236000 6330 179000 2800 2260 3460 24100 225000 44300 18200 29000 17000 28800 8290 30600
2020-05-18 251000 1102000 16100 56600 7280 8470 178000 11200 238000 6390 179000 2810 2270 3490 24300 226000 44500 18500 29200 17200 29200 8310 30700

Confirmed count forecast (bold red line in graphs) 2020-05-12 to 2020-05-18

DateAustraliaBrazilCanadaIndiaIndonesiaIranMalaysiaMexicoPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-NCUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-RIUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WI
2020-05-11 6970 169594 71264 70768 14265 109286 6726 36327 11086 221344 10652 139771 1347881 10164 3912 11383 69329 19726 33492 6389 6525 40932 31534 12368 2260 78857 24627 7159 6646 31751 78140 33373 45263 11774 9374 9674 15274 8407 3129 140206 5039 6143 337055 24777 4613 3286 60459 10292 7792 3614 15111 40555 5856 25070 17084 10418
2020-05-12 6990 180000 72300 75000 14600 111000 6770 37900 11300 232000 11400 141000 1370000 10400 4000 11600 72400 20000 33900 6550 6670 41400 31900 12600 2280 80300 25100 7330 6750 32000 79000 34300 45700 12300 9500 9900 15700 8700 3200 142000 5150 6220 339000 25300 4670 3360 61100 11700 7930 3760 15300 41500 5970 25800 17300 10700
2020-05-13 7000 192000 73400 79000 14900 112000 6810 39500 11500 243000 12100 142000 1393000 10700 4080 11900 75500 20200 34200 6700 6840 41900 32300 12900 2300 81800 25700 7500 6870 32300 80000 35100 46100 12900 9600 10000 16100 9000 3270 143000 5280 6280 342000 25900 4730 3420 61800 13300 8070 3920 15600 42600 6090 26600 17500 10900
2020-05-14 7010 204000 74400 84000 15300 114000 6850 41100 11700 254000 12900 144000 1417000 11000 4170 12100 78600 20500 34600 6860 7000 42400 32700 13200 2320 83200 26200 7660 6990 32500 80800 36000 46500 13400 9700 10200 16600 9300 3340 145000 5420 6340 344000 26500 4780 3490 62600 15000 8210 4080 15900 43700 6210 27400 17700 11200
2020-05-15 7030 217000 75500 90000 15600 115000 6880 42800 11900 266000 13800 145000 1442000 11300 4250 12400 82000 20800 34900 7020 7170 42900 33000 13500 2330 84600 26700 7830 7110 32800 81800 37000 46900 14000 9800 10400 17000 9600 3410 146000 5550 6410 346000 27200 4840 3560 63300 16900 8360 4260 16100 44800 6330 28100 17900 11500
2020-05-16 7040 231000 76600 96000 16000 117000 6900 44600 12100 278000 14700 146000 1468000 11600 4340 12800 85500 21000 35300 7190 7340 43400 33400 13800 2350 85900 27200 7990 7220 33100 82700 37900 47300 14600 9900 10600 17500 9900 3480 147000 5700 6470 348000 27800 4900 3630 64000 19000 8500 4450 16400 45900 6450 28900 18100 11700
2020-05-17 7050 246000 77800 102000 16300 118000 6920 46400 12300 290000 15700 147000 1496000 11900 4430 13100 89200 21300 35700 7350 7520 43900 33800 14100 2370 87300 27800 8160 7340 33300 83600 38900 47700 15300 10000 10800 17900 10200 3560 149000 5840 6530 350000 28400 4960 3700 64800 21400 8650 4660 16700 47100 6570 29800 18400 12000
2020-05-18 7060 262000 78900 108000 16700 120000 6940 48400 12500 303000 16700 149000 1524000 12200 4520 13400 93000 21600 36000 7520 7700 44400 34200 14400 2390 88700 28300 8320 7460 33600 84500 39900 48100 16000 10100 11000 18400 10600 3640 150000 5990 6600 353000 29100 5020 3770 65500 24100 8800 4880 17000 48300 6700 30600 18600 12300

Confirmed count scenario forecast (bold purple line in graphs) 2020-05-12 to 2020-05-20

DateUKEUATBEBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSENOCHAustraliaBrazilCanadaIndiaIndonesiaIranMalaysiaMexicoPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-NCUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-RIUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WI
2020-05-11 223060 1064072 15882 53449 7114 8176 172576 10513 227436 5984 175479 2726 2196 3284 23135 219814 42788 16326 27679 15588 26670 8132 30344 6970 169594 71264 70768 14265 109286 6726 36327 11086 221344 10652 139771 1347881 10164 3912 11383 69329 19726 33492 6389 6525 40932 31534 12368 2260 78857 24627 7159 6646 31751 78140 33373 45263 11774 9374 9674 15274 8407 3129 140206 5039 6143 337055 24777 4613 3286 60459 10292 7792 3614 15111 40555 5856 25070 17084 10418
2020-05-12 226000 1071000 15900 54000 7130 8200 174000 10600 227000 6070 177000 2740 2210 3300 23400 221000 43100 16500 28100 15800 27200 8160 30400 6980 178000 72000 73900 14500 111000 6730 37600 11100 228000 11000 141000 1362000 10400 3980 11600 70700 20100 33900 6490 6640 41300 31900 12500 2270 80300 25000 7300 6700 32000 79400 34000 45600 12200 9490 9800 15600 8640 3160 141000 5100 6200 340000 25200 4670 3350 61400 10300 7900 3800 15100 40900 5950 25300 17200 10600
2020-05-13 228000 1078000 16000 54400 7150 8240 174000 10700 228000 6140 178000 2750 2230 3320 23600 221000 43300 16800 28400 15900 27600 8170 30400 6990 184000 72700 76700 14700 112000 6750 38800 11200 235000 11200 142000 1376000 10600 4050 11800 71900 20500 34200 6590 6790 41600 32100 12700 2280 81600 25400 7420 6780 32200 80400 34600 45900 12500 9570 10000 15900 8820 3200 142000 5160 6250 342000 25600 4730 3410 62000 10300 8020 3960 15100 41500 6040 25900 17400 10800
2020-05-14 231000 1084000 16000 54900 7160 8270 175000 10800 228000 6210 178000 2760 2240 3340 23700 222000 43500 17000 28700 16100 27900 8190 30500 7000 190000 73400 79100 14900 113000 6780 39700 11300 242000 11600 143000 1390000 10800 4100 11900 73000 20800 34500 6680 6920 42000 32300 12900 2290 82600 25800 7530 6900 32400 81200 35100 46300 12900 9660 10100 16200 9000 3250 143000 5240 6280 344000 26000 4780 3460 62700 10300 8110 4150 15100 42100 6120 26500 17500 11000
2020-05-15 233000 1090000 16000 55300 7180 8300 176000 10800 228000 6270 179000 2770 2250 3350 23900 223000 43700 17100 29000 16200 28200 8200 30500 7000 195000 74000 81500 15100 114000 6800 40600 11300 247000 11900 144000 1402000 11000 4160 12100 74100 21100 34800 6760 7050 42200 32500 13000 2300 83500 26100 7620 6960 32600 82000 35600 46500 13200 9730 10200 16600 9130 3280 144000 5300 6310 345000 26200 4830 3500 63300 10300 8180 4310 15100 42500 6180 26900 17600 11100
2020-05-16 234000 1095000 16100 55700 7190 8320 177000 10900 229000 6310 179000 2780 2260 3370 24000 223000 43800 17300 29200 16300 28500 8210 30500 7010 201000 74600 83500 15200 115000 6820 41700 11400 251000 12100 145000 1410000 11200 4180 12200 74900 21300 35000 6830 7190 42400 32700 13100 2310 84200 26400 7680 6990 32700 82800 35900 46800 13400 9770 10300 16800 9270 3310 145000 5350 6340 347000 26400 4870 3540 63900 10300 8270 4480 15100 42800 6240 27500 17700 11200
2020-05-17 236000 1100000 16100 56100 7200 8340 177000 10900 229000 6340 179000 2780 2270 3380 24200 224000 43900 17400 29400 16400 28800 8220 30600 7010 204000 75000 84300 15300 116000 6830 42300 11400 254000 12300 146000 1417000 11300 4230 12300 75600 21500 35200 6880 7280 42700 32800 13200 2320 85000 26600 7720 7010 32900 83400 36300 47100 13500 9810 10300 16900 9370 3330 146000 5390 6370 349000 26700 4910 3570 64500 10300 8360 4630 15200 43000 6280 27900 17800 11300
2020-05-18 237000 1104000 16100 56400 7210 8350 178000 11000 229000 6370 179000 2790 2280 3390 24400 224000 44100 17500 29600 16500 29000 8230 30600 7020 206000 75400 85700 15300 116000 6850 42900 11400 255000 12500 147000 1427000 11300 4240 12300 75600 21800 35500 6940 7360 42900 32900 13200 2320 85700 26800 7750 7010 33000 84000 36500 47400 13500 9840 10400 16900 9480 3360 147000 5440 6390 350000 26800 4950 3600 65000 10300 8430 4750 15200 43200 6320 28300 17900 11400
2020-05-19 238000 1108000 16200 56800 7220 8360 178000 11000 229000 6400 179000 2800 2280 3400 24500 224000 44200 17600 29800 16500 29200 8230 30600 7020 208000 75900 87200 15400 117000 6860 43200 11400 256000 12700 148000 1431000 11400 4260 12400 75600 21900 35700 6990 7390 43000 33000 13200 2340 85900 27000 7770 7010 33200 84200 36700 47600 13600 9870 10400 17000 9550 3380 147000 5460 6420 352000 27100 4980 3620 65500 10300 8480 4860 15300 43500 6340 28800 18000 11400
2020-05-20 238000 1111000 16200 57000 7220 8370 179000 11000 229000 6410 180000 2800 2280 3410 24600 225000 44300 17700 30000 16600 29300 8240 30600 7030 209000 76300 88700 15500 117000 6870 43400 11400 257000 12800 148000 1438000 11500 4290 12400 75600 22100 35800 7040 7450 43000 33100 13300 2350 86400 27100 7770 7030 33300 84500 36800 47900 13800 9890 10400 17100 9640 3400 148000 5470 6440 353000 27200 5010 3630 65900 10300 8530 4920 15300 43600 6370 29100 18000 11400

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in Europe 2020-05-11

UKEUATBEBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSENOCH
Peak date04-1003-2803-2604-1503-2503-2803-2804-0403-2704-0604-1204-0203-3004-1004-1303-2104-1004-1904-1004-1104-2403-2703-23
Peak daily increment 5960 29745 875 1470 287 284 6004 333 8152 181 13258 96 76 128 985 5698 1173 404 904 376 657 298 1205
Days from 100 to peak 36 34 18 39 11 15 27 25 25 24 42 22 11 20 30 27 35 35 28 28 48 21 18
Days from peak/2 to peak 22 18 13 31 11 14 15 25 14 24 26 25 15 22 24 17 29 33 23 25 45 19 12
Days since peak 31 44 46 26 47 44 44 37 45 35 29 39 42 31 28 51 31 22 31 30 17 45 49

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed 2020-05-11

AustraliaBrazilCanadaIndiaIndonesiaIranMalaysiaMexicoPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-NCUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-RIUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WI
Peak date03-28 --04-22 --05-0503-3104-02 --03-3105-07 --04-1104-0905-0704-2305-08 --04-2404-2205-0104-2604-0204-1405-0204-0205-0304-2705-0305-0504-0404-2405-0104-0305-0704-1005-05 --05-0105-0104-0705-0204-0404-0904-1904-04 --04-09 --04-02 --05-01 --05-0305-0103-2805-05
Peak daily increment 411 1877 416 3107 180 361 11229 4742 31679 320 185 381 649 1221 207 262 1289 909 583 141 2696 742 301 257 1780 3104 1087 1616 699 271 293 444 103 4368 175 181 10035 1124 133 1694 214 621 152 894 460 344
Days from 100 to peak 18 42 51 35 24 17 51 23 37 48 30 48 40 34 40 32 17 29 40 8 48 37 40 42 19 42 43 16 48 19 45 33 37 22 38 15 31 31 11 23 13 44 43 43 20 48
Days from peak/2 to peak 14 33 48 28 25 13 31 17 20 46 30 46 35 28 40 31 12 24 34 9 40 33 38 41 12 30 36 12 41 18 44 29 41 15 39 15 20 26 13 16 13 40 44 36 17 46
Days since peak 44 19 6 41 39 41 4 30 32 4 18 3 17 19 10 15 39 27 9 39 8 14 8 6 37 17 10 38 4 31 6 10 10 34 9 37 32 22 37 32 39 10 8 10 44 6

Initial visual evaluation of forecasts of Confirmed