COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2020-05-15


Disclaimer

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. The documentation that is provided is still in progress and not peer reviewed. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.

Recent changes

[2020-03-24] Our forecasts are starting to overestimate in some cases. This was always expected to happen when the increase starts to slow down. Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, but only for Italy and Spain sofar.
[2020-03-26] Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, only for Italy.
[2020-03-31] Scenario forecasts, based on what happened in China earlier this year, are presented for several countries (line marked with x). Created more plausible 90% confidence bands (dotted line in same colour).
[2020-04-02] Now including more US States, based on New York Times data. And the world.
[2020-04-06] Added a post hoc estimate of the peak number of cases. This needs at least three confirmed observations (four for deaths) after the event. It is based on the averaged smooth trend, and can change later or be a local peak. It is marked with a vertical line with the date label, or a date with left arrow in the bottom left corner of the graph. This is backported to 2020-04-04.
[2020-04-08] Minor correction to peak estimates. Added table with scenario forecasts.
[2020-04-09] Added table with estimated peak dates (if happened) and dates to and since the peak. Note that this can be a local peak, and subsequent re-acceleration (or data revisions) can result in a new peak later.
[2020-04-10] Updated documentation with better description of short-term estimates and peak determination.
[2020-04-16] Added scenario forecasts to all graphs now. This would now be the preferred forecast for most.
This is the first time with a peak in confirmed UK cases (also for deaths, but this is uncertain because it is at the same date).
[2020-04-17] Bird and Nielsen look into nowcasting death counts in England.
[2020-04-24] A summary of our work on short-term COVID-19 forecasting appeared as a voxeu.
[2020-04-27] Our short-term COVID-19 forecasting paper is now available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06.
A small adjustment has been made to the scenario forecast methodology, and will be documented shortly.
[2020-04-29] See our blog entry at the International Institute of Forecasters.
US history of death counts revised in Johns Hopkins/CSSE data.
UK death counts have been revised to include the deaths in care homes. In the Johns Hopkins/CSSE data set, which we use, the entire history has been revised. So forecasts made up to 2020-04-29 cannot be compared to later outcomes. In the ECDC data set only the last observation has changed, causing a jump in the series.
[2020-05-06] The New York Times is in the process of redefining its US state data. Unfortunately, at the moment only the last observation has changed (e.g New York deaths jumped from 19645 on 2020-05-05 to 25956 a day later). This means the data is currently useless; however it does bring it close to the Johns Hopkins/CSSE count (25626 on 2020-05-06). The aggregate US count is based on JH/CSSE so unaffected. We now use Johns Hopkins/CSSE US state data, including all states with sufficient counts. So the new forecasts cannot be compared to those previously.
A minor change is that we show the graph without scenario forecast if no peak has been detected yet.
[2020-05-13] We now omit countries with fewer than 200 confirmed cases in the last week (25 for deaths).
The short-term paper has some small updates, including further comparisons with other models.
Data for Ecuador are not reliable enough for forecasting.
Switched to an improved version of scenario forecasting.

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Confirmed count average forecast Europe (bold black line in graphs) 2020-05-16 to 2020-05-22

DateUKEUATBEBGCZDEDKESFIFRHUIEITNLPLPTROSECH
2020-05-15 236711 1085834 16109 54644 2138 8406 175233 10791 230183 6228 177319 3417 23956 223885 43681 18016 28583 16437 29207 30514
2020-05-16 239000 1090000 16100 55000 2160 8430 176000 10900 231000 6250 178000 3430 24100 225000 43900 18300 28700 16600 29500 30600
2020-05-17 243000 1095000 16200 55300 2190 8470 176000 10900 232000 6300 178000 3460 24200 226000 44100 18600 28900 16800 30000 30600
2020-05-18 246000 1099000 16200 55600 2230 8520 177000 11000 233000 6350 178000 3490 24400 227000 44300 19000 29100 17000 30500 30700
2020-05-19 249000 1103000 16300 55900 2260 8560 178000 11100 234000 6410 179000 3520 24500 228000 44600 19400 29300 17200 31000 30700
2020-05-20 252000 1106000 16300 56300 2290 8610 178000 11100 235000 6460 179000 3550 24700 229000 44800 19700 29500 17400 31500 30800
2020-05-21 256000 1109000 16400 56600 2330 8650 179000 11200 236000 6520 179000 3580 24900 230000 45000 20100 29700 17700 32100 30800
2020-05-22 259000 1112000 16400 57000 2360 8700 180000 11300 237000 6570 179000 3610 25100 231000 45200 20500 29900 17900 32600 30900

Confirmed count average forecast (bold black line in graphs) 2020-05-16 to 2020-05-22

DateBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMalaysiaMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-IAUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-NCUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-RIUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WI
2020-05-15 220291 75959 39542 14216 85784 16496 116635 6855 45032 84495 12091 262843 13524 146457 1442824 11373 4324 13169 76693 21171 35847 6871 7330 44060 33598 14039 90233 26656 7886 7413 33772 83100 36986 47625 14216 9918 10801 17494 9610 3419 143984 5588 6733 345813 26954 5086 3541 64136 10789 8407 3887 16620 45721 6355 28672 17826 11685
2020-05-16 230000 76800 41200 15000 89000 17100 117000 6890 47500 89000 12200 273000 14300 147000 1458000 11500 4390 13700 77800 21300 36100 6950 7420 44300 33900 14300 91000 26900 7960 7450 33900 83600 37300 47900 14600 10000 10900 18200 9700 3480 145000 5660 6760 347000 27300 5120 3600 64600 10900 8470 3940 16900 47400 6410 29800 18000 12100
2020-05-17 245000 77800 43800 15800 93000 17800 119000 6910 50200 94000 12500 284000 15200 149000 1479000 11800 4490 14300 79400 21600 36500 7070 7580 44800 34300 14600 94000 27300 8070 7540 34100 84500 38000 48100 15200 10000 11000 19000 9800 3550 146000 5790 6830 349000 27800 5190 3660 65500 11100 8580 4010 17200 49400 6490 31100 18200 12500
2020-05-18 261000 78900 46600 16600 97000 18600 120000 6930 53200 99000 12700 296000 16100 150000 1501000 12100 4580 14900 81000 21900 37000 7180 7760 45400 34700 15000 96000 27700 8210 7660 34400 85500 38800 48500 15700 10200 11200 19800 10000 3620 147000 5910 6920 351000 28300 5280 3730 66300 11300 8710 4090 17600 51400 6590 32500 18400 13000
2020-05-19 277000 80000 49700 17500 102000 19300 122000 6940 56200 104000 12900 307000 17000 152000 1524000 12400 4680 15600 82600 22200 37400 7300 7930 46100 35200 15300 98000 28100 8350 7780 34700 86500 39600 49000 16400 10300 11400 20600 10200 3690 148000 6040 7020 353000 28800 5370 3790 67100 11500 8840 4180 17900 53600 6690 34000 18500 13500
2020-05-20 295000 81100 52900 18500 107000 20100 124000 6950 59500 110000 13100 320000 18100 153000 1547000 12600 4780 16300 84300 22500 37900 7420 8110 46700 35600 15700 100000 28600 8500 7900 35000 87500 40400 49500 17000 10400 11700 21500 10400 3760 149000 6180 7130 355000 29300 5460 3860 67900 11600 8980 4270 18300 55800 6800 35500 18700 14000
2020-05-21 314000 82200 56300 19500 112000 21000 125000 6960 63000 116000 13400 333000 19200 155000 1570000 12900 4880 17000 85900 22800 38400 7540 8300 47300 36000 16100 102000 29000 8640 8020 35400 88600 41200 49900 17700 10500 11900 22400 10700 3830 150000 6310 7230 357000 29900 5550 3930 68800 11800 9110 4370 18700 58100 6920 37000 18900 14500
2020-05-22 335000 83300 59900 20600 117000 21900 127000 6960 66600 122000 13600 347000 20300 156000 1594000 13200 4990 17700 87600 23200 38900 7670 8490 48000 36500 16500 105000 29500 8790 8160 35700 89600 42100 50400 18400 10600 12100 23400 10900 3910 151000 6450 7340 359000 30500 5640 4000 69700 12000 9250 4470 19100 60600 7030 38700 19100 15000

Confirmed count forecast Europe (bold red line in graphs) 2020-05-16 to 2020-05-22

DateUKEUATBEBGCZDEDKESFIFRHUIEITNLPLPTROSECH
2020-05-15 236711 1085834 16109 54644 2138 8406 175233 10791 230183 6228 177319 3417 23956 223885 43681 18016 28583 16437 29207 30514
2020-05-16 240000 1091000 16200 54900 2170 8460 176000 10900 231000 6280 178000 3440 24100 225000 43900 18300 28800 16600 29700 30600
2020-05-17 243000 1096000 16200 55200 2200 8500 176000 10900 232000 6330 178000 3470 24300 226000 44100 18700 29000 16800 30300 30600
2020-05-18 246000 1101000 16300 55500 2230 8560 177000 11000 233000 6390 178000 3500 24500 227000 44300 19100 29200 17000 30800 30700
2020-05-19 249000 1106000 16300 55800 2260 8600 178000 11100 234000 6450 179000 3530 24700 227000 44600 19400 29400 17200 31400 30700
2020-05-20 252000 1110000 16300 56100 2290 8650 178000 11100 235000 6500 179000 3560 24900 228000 44800 19800 29700 17400 31900 30800
2020-05-21 255000 1113000 16400 56400 2320 8700 179000 11200 236000 6560 179000 3590 25100 229000 45000 20200 29900 17500 32500 30800
2020-05-22 258000 1117000 16400 56700 2360 8750 180000 11300 237000 6620 179000 3620 25300 230000 45200 20500 30100 17700 33000 30900

Confirmed count forecast (bold red line in graphs) 2020-05-16 to 2020-05-22

DateBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMalaysiaMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-IAUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-NCUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-RIUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WI
2020-05-15 220291 75959 39542 14216 85784 16496 116635 6855 45032 84495 12091 262843 13524 146457 1442824 11373 4324 13169 76693 21171 35847 6871 7330 44060 33598 14039 90233 26656 7886 7413 33772 83100 36986 47625 14216 9918 10801 17494 9610 3419 143984 5588 6733 345813 26954 5086 3541 64136 10789 8407 3887 16620 45721 6355 28672 17826 11685
2020-05-16 235000 77000 42600 15000 89000 17200 118000 6890 47900 89000 12300 274000 14100 148000 1465000 11600 4410 13600 78100 21500 36300 6990 7470 44600 33900 14400 92000 27000 8040 7520 34200 84100 37700 48100 14700 10000 11000 18300 9800 3480 145000 5700 6820 348000 27400 5160 3590 64900 11000 8540 3970 17000 47400 6450 29900 18000 12100
2020-05-17 250000 78000 45700 15700 93000 18000 120000 6910 50900 94000 12500 285000 14800 149000 1488000 11900 4500 14200 79700 21800 36800 7100 7630 45200 34300 14700 94000 27400 8180 7670 34500 85100 38500 48600 15300 10100 11200 19100 10100 3540 146000 5820 6950 350000 27900 5260 3650 65700 11200 8680 4050 17300 49300 6560 31300 18200 12600
2020-05-18 267000 79100 49000 16500 96000 18800 122000 6930 54000 99000 12700 296000 15500 151000 1511000 12100 4600 14800 81300 22100 37300 7210 7800 45900 34800 15100 96000 27800 8330 7820 35000 86200 39300 49100 15800 10200 11400 19900 10300 3600 147000 5950 7080 353000 28400 5360 3700 66600 11400 8820 4140 17700 51200 6670 32600 18300 13100
2020-05-19 285000 80100 52500 17400 100000 19700 123000 6940 57400 105000 13000 307000 16300 152000 1536000 12400 4690 15500 82800 22400 37800 7320 7970 46500 35200 15400 99000 28200 8480 7970 35400 87100 40100 49600 16400 10300 11700 20800 10600 3660 149000 6080 7200 355000 28900 5450 3760 67400 11600 8960 4230 18000 53300 6780 34000 18500 13600
2020-05-20 303000 81200 56300 18200 104000 20600 125000 6950 61000 111000 13200 320000 17100 154000 1561000 12700 4790 16200 84400 22600 38300 7430 8140 47200 35600 15800 101000 28700 8630 8130 35800 88100 41000 50100 17000 10500 11900 21700 10800 3730 150000 6210 7330 357000 29400 5550 3820 68200 11800 9110 4330 18400 55400 6900 35500 18700 14100
2020-05-21 323000 82200 60400 19200 108000 21500 127000 6960 64700 117000 13400 332000 18000 155000 1587000 13000 4880 16900 85900 22900 38800 7550 8320 47900 36000 16200 103000 29100 8790 8290 36200 89200 41800 50600 17600 10600 12200 22600 11100 3790 151000 6340 7460 360000 29900 5650 3870 69100 11900 9260 4430 18700 57600 7020 37100 18900 14600
2020-05-22 345000 83300 64700 20100 113000 22400 128000 6960 68800 124000 13700 345000 18900 156000 1613000 13300 4980 17700 87500 23200 39300 7660 8500 48600 36400 16600 105000 29600 8950 8450 36600 90200 42700 51100 18300 10700 12400 23600 11400 3860 152000 6480 7590 362000 30400 5750 3930 70000 12100 9410 4530 19100 59900 7140 38700 19000 15200

Confirmed count scenario forecast (bold purple line in graphs) 2020-05-16 to 2020-05-24

DateUKEUATBEBGCZDEDKESFIFRHUIEITNLPLPTROSECHBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-IAUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-NCUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-RIUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WI
2020-05-15 236711 1085834 16109 54644 2138 8406 175233 10791 230183 6228 177319 3417 23956 223885 43681 18016 28583 16437 29207 30514 220291 75959 39542 14216 85784 16496 116635 45032 84495 12091 262843 13524 146457 1442824 11373 4324 13169 76693 21171 35847 6871 7330 44060 33598 14039 90233 26656 7886 7413 33772 83100 36986 47625 14216 9918 10801 17494 9610 3419 143984 5588 6733 345813 26954 5086 3541 64136 10789 8407 3887 16620 45721 6355 28672 17826 11685
2020-05-16 239000 1090000 16200 54900 2160 8430 176000 10800 232000 6230 177000 3440 24100 225000 43800 18300 28600 16500 29500 30600 226000 76900 41300 14900 89000 16900 117000 46800 87000 12200 272000 14100 147000 1450000 11700 4400 13500 78200 21300 36100 6930 7470 44200 33800 14400 92000 26800 8000 7470 34100 83700 37400 47900 14500 9900 11000 18100 9700 3470 144000 5680 6750 347000 27300 5110 3600 64600 11500 8430 3970 17000 46900 6440 29500 18000 12000
2020-05-17 241000 1094000 16200 55000 2180 8460 176000 10900 233000 6250 177000 3470 24200 225000 44000 18700 28600 16700 30000 30600 237000 78000 43300 15500 93000 17300 118000 48800 91000 12400 282000 14900 148000 1466000 12000 4480 13900 79900 21500 36500 7000 7620 44600 34100 14700 94000 27200 8140 7640 34400 84400 38200 48300 15000 9900 11200 18500 10000 3520 145000 5790 6820 349000 27700 5180 3660 65200 12100 8510 4050 17400 48000 6540 30200 18100 12300
2020-05-18 242000 1097000 16200 55200 2200 8490 176000 10900 233000 6270 177000 3490 24400 226000 44100 18900 28700 16800 30300 30700 246000 78900 44800 16100 95000 17500 120000 50200 93000 12500 291000 15400 149000 1479000 12300 4540 14300 81000 21700 36800 7060 7770 45000 34500 15100 95000 27500 8280 7800 34800 85100 38800 48700 15400 10000 11500 19000 10200 3570 146000 5900 6870 350000 28200 5260 3720 65700 12500 8590 4090 17700 49100 6630 30700 18200 12500
2020-05-19 244000 1100000 16300 55300 2210 8520 177000 11000 234000 6290 177000 3520 24400 226000 44300 19100 28700 16900 30700 30700 254000 79900 46900 16700 98000 17800 120000 52000 97000 12700 300000 16100 150000 1491000 12500 4610 14700 82400 21900 37100 7140 7900 45200 34700 15400 97000 27800 8400 7930 35100 85700 39400 49000 15800 10000 11800 19500 10400 3610 146000 6010 6920 352000 28600 5300 3770 66200 12600 8660 4180 18000 50000 6740 31300 18400 12700
2020-05-20 246000 1102000 16300 55400 2230 8550 177000 11000 234000 6310 177000 3540 24600 227000 44400 19400 28700 16900 30900 30700 265000 80700 48700 17300 101000 18000 121000 53800 99000 12700 308000 16700 150000 1501000 12800 4660 15000 83300 22100 37400 7190 8020 45400 35000 15700 99000 28100 8550 8100 35400 86300 40000 49200 16300 10000 12100 20000 10600 3660 146000 6100 6960 353000 29000 5340 3820 66500 13100 8730 4270 18200 51300 6850 31700 18400 12900
2020-05-21 247000 1104000 16400 55400 2250 8570 177000 11000 235000 6330 177000 3560 24700 227000 44500 19600 28700 17000 31200 30800 273000 81400 50400 17900 104000 18200 121000 55300 102000 12800 316000 17300 151000 1510000 13100 4700 15300 84200 22300 37600 7270 8150 45700 35300 16100 100000 28300 8660 8240 35600 86800 40400 49500 16800 10000 12300 20600 10800 3700 147000 6180 7000 354000 29400 5380 3860 66900 13400 8770 4370 18500 52000 6960 32200 18500 13100
2020-05-22 249000 1105000 16400 55500 2260 8590 177000 11000 235000 6340 177000 3580 24800 227000 44600 19800 28700 17100 31400 30800 281000 82100 51400 18400 107000 18400 122000 56800 105000 12900 324000 17700 151000 1518000 13400 4730 15500 85300 22400 37800 7330 8230 46000 35500 16300 101000 28500 8780 8400 35800 87300 41000 49700 17200 10100 12600 21000 11100 3740 147000 6280 7030 355000 29700 5410 3930 67200 13600 8810 4500 18700 52600 7080 32600 18600 13300
2020-05-23 249000 1107000 16400 55500 2270 8590 178000 11100 235000 6350 177000 3590 24900 228000 44700 20000 28700 17200 31600 30800 292000 82800 52900 18900 110000 18500 122000 58500 107000 13000 331000 18500 152000 1526000 13700 4770 15700 86100 22600 38000 7390 8330 46200 35700 16600 102000 28800 8880 8510 35900 87700 41400 49900 17700 10100 12800 21400 11200 3770 148000 6360 7070 355000 30000 5440 3980 67600 14000 8840 4590 18800 53000 7190 33000 18700 13500
2020-05-24 251000 1108000 16400 55600 2280 8590 178000 11100 235000 6350 177000 3600 24900 228000 44800 20200 28700 17200 31800 30900 300000 83300 54000 19300 114000 18700 122000 59600 108000 13000 338000 18900 152000 1533000 13900 4800 15900 87100 22700 38200 7460 8430 46300 35900 16900 103000 29000 8980 8580 35900 88000 41800 50200 18200 10100 12900 21400 11400 3800 148000 6450 7100 356000 30300 5470 4040 67800 14200 8870 4680 19200 53500 7300 33400 18800 13600

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in Europe 2020-05-15

UKEUATBEBGCZDEDKESFIFRHUIEITNLPLPTROSECH
Peak date04-1003-2803-2604-1504-2403-2803-2804-0403-2704-0604-1204-1004-1303-2104-1004-1904-1004-1104-2403-23
Peak daily increment 5959 29745 875 1470 76 284 6004 333 8152 181 13259 128 985 5698 1173 404 904 376 657 1205
Days from 100 to peak 36 34 18 39 36 15 27 25 25 24 42 20 30 27 35 35 28 28 48 18
Days from peak/2 to peak 22 18 13 31 40 14 15 25 14 24 26 22 24 17 29 33 23 25 45 12
Days since peak 35 48 50 30 21 48 48 41 49 39 33 35 32 55 35 26 35 34 21 53

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed 2020-05-15

BrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMalaysiaMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-IAUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-NCUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-RIUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WI
Peak date --05-03 -- -- -- --03-3104-02 -- --03-3105-08 --04-1104-0905-0704-23 --05-0904-2404-2205-0104-2604-0204-1405-0205-0104-2704-3005-0504-0404-2405-0104-0305-0704-1005-05 --05-0105-0104-0705-0204-0404-0904-1904-0405-0904-0905-1104-0205-0805-02 --05-03 --03-28 --
Peak daily increment 1888 3107 180 361 11227 4742 31685 318 185 1976 649 1221 211 257 1289 909 597 2689 739 305 265 1780 3103 1108 1616 700 271 288 455 106 4368 176 181 10035 1124 133 80 1694 1038 214 165 621 151 460
Days from 100 to peak 53 35 24 17 52 23 37 48 30 61 40 34 40 32 17 29 40 46 37 37 42 19 42 43 16 48 19 45 33 37 22 38 15 31 31 11 50 23 47 13 38 45 43 20
Days from peak/2 to peak 44 28 25 13 32 17 20 46 30 51 35 28 40 31 12 24 34 38 33 35 41 12 30 36 12 41 18 44 29 41 15 39 15 20 26 13 54 16 38 13 40 41 44 17
Days since peak 12 45 43 45 7 34 36 8 22 6 21 23 14 19 43 31 13 14 18 15 10 41 21 14 42 8 35 10 14 14 38 13 41 36 26 41 6 36 4 43 7 13 12 48

Initial visual evaluation of forecasts of Confirmed