COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2020-05-16


Disclaimer

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. The documentation that is provided is still in progress and not peer reviewed. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.

Recent changes

[2020-03-24] Our forecasts are starting to overestimate in some cases. This was always expected to happen when the increase starts to slow down. Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, but only for Italy and Spain sofar.
[2020-03-26] Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, only for Italy.
[2020-03-31] Scenario forecasts, based on what happened in China earlier this year, are presented for several countries (line marked with x). Created more plausible 90% confidence bands (dotted line in same colour).
[2020-04-02] Now including more US States, based on New York Times data. And the world.
[2020-04-06] Added a post hoc estimate of the peak number of cases. This needs at least three confirmed observations (four for deaths) after the event. It is based on the averaged smooth trend, and can change later or be a local peak. It is marked with a vertical line with the date label, or a date with left arrow in the bottom left corner of the graph. This is backported to 2020-04-04.
[2020-04-08] Minor correction to peak estimates. Added table with scenario forecasts.
[2020-04-09] Added table with estimated peak dates (if happened) and dates to and since the peak. Note that this can be a local peak, and subsequent re-acceleration (or data revisions) can result in a new peak later.
[2020-04-10] Updated documentation with better description of short-term estimates and peak determination.
[2020-04-16] Added scenario forecasts to all graphs now. This would now be the preferred forecast for most.
This is the first time with a peak in confirmed UK cases (also for deaths, but this is uncertain because it is at the same date).
[2020-04-17] Bird and Nielsen look into nowcasting death counts in England.
[2020-04-24] A summary of our work on short-term COVID-19 forecasting appeared as a voxeu.
[2020-04-27] Our short-term COVID-19 forecasting paper is now available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06.
A small adjustment has been made to the scenario forecast methodology, and will be documented shortly.
[2020-04-29] See our blog entry at the International Institute of Forecasters.
US history of death counts revised in Johns Hopkins/CSSE data.
UK death counts have been revised to include the deaths in care homes. In the Johns Hopkins/CSSE data set, which we use, the entire history has been revised. So forecasts made up to 2020-04-29 cannot be compared to later outcomes. In the ECDC data set only the last observation has changed, causing a jump in the series.
[2020-05-06] The New York Times is in the process of redefining its US state data. Unfortunately, at the moment only the last observation has changed (e.g New York deaths jumped from 19645 on 2020-05-05 to 25956 a day later). This means the data is currently useless; however it does bring it close to the Johns Hopkins/CSSE count (25626 on 2020-05-06). The aggregate US count is based on JH/CSSE so unaffected. We now use Johns Hopkins/CSSE US state data, including all states with sufficient counts. So the new forecasts cannot be compared to those previously.
A minor change is that we show the graph without scenario forecast if no peak has been detected yet.
[2020-05-13] We now omit countries with fewer than 200 confirmed cases in the last week (25 for deaths).
The short-term paper has some small updates, including further comparisons with other models.
Data for Ecuador are not reliable enough for forecasting.
Switched to an improved version of scenario forecasting.

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Confirmed count average forecast Europe (bold black line in graphs) 2020-05-17 to 2020-05-23

DateUKEUATBEBGCZDEDKESFIFRHUIEITNLPLPTROSECH
2020-05-16 240161 1089912 16201 54989 2175 8455 175752 10858 230698 6286 177207 3473 24048 224760 43870 18257 28810 16704 29677 30572
2020-05-17 243000 1094000 16200 55300 2200 8490 176000 10900 231000 6320 177000 3480 24200 226000 44100 18600 28900 16800 30100 30600
2020-05-18 246000 1098000 16300 55600 2230 8540 177000 11000 232000 6360 178000 3510 24300 227000 44300 18900 29100 17000 30700 30700
2020-05-19 249000 1102000 16300 55900 2260 8590 178000 11100 233000 6410 178000 3540 24500 227000 44500 19200 29300 17200 31200 30700
2020-05-20 252000 1105000 16400 56300 2300 8640 178000 11100 234000 6470 178000 3570 24700 228000 44700 19600 29500 17400 31700 30800
2020-05-21 255000 1108000 16400 56600 2330 8690 179000 11200 235000 6520 178000 3600 24900 229000 44900 19900 29700 17600 32300 30800
2020-05-22 258000 1111000 16500 56900 2360 8740 179000 11300 236000 6580 179000 3630 25100 230000 45200 20300 29900 17800 32800 30900
2020-05-23 261000 1113000 16500 57300 2400 8790 180000 11300 237000 6630 179000 3660 25300 231000 45400 20600 30100 18100 33400 30900

Confirmed count average forecast (bold black line in graphs) 2020-05-17 to 2020-05-23

DateBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-IAUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-NCUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-RIUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WI
2020-05-16 233511 77206 41428 14939 90648 17025 118392 47144 88541 12305 272043 14355 148067 1467820 11674 4447 13666 78725 21556 36446 7042 7501 44732 33868 14313 92325 27280 7939 7657 34045 84587 37968 48083 14941 10096 11123 18130 10055 3546 144934 5767 6813 348232 27474 5237 3612 65185 10789 8661 3959 16923 47452 6489 29683 18176 12187
2020-05-17 246000 78000 43900 15700 96000 17700 119000 49700 93000 12500 282000 15200 149000 1484000 11800 4510 14200 79600 21700 36700 7100 7630 45000 34200 14600 94000 27400 8070 7700 34300 85200 38400 48500 15200 10100 11200 18800 10100 3570 146000 5820 6880 350000 27800 5260 3660 65600 10900 8710 4020 17200 49300 6550 30900 18200 12600
2020-05-18 262000 79000 46800 16500 102000 18400 121000 52500 98000 12700 293000 16100 151000 1507000 12100 4600 14800 81200 22000 37200 7210 7800 45600 34600 15000 96000 27700 8200 7820 34600 86000 39100 48900 15700 10200 11400 19600 10300 3630 146000 5940 6980 352000 28300 5340 3720 66400 11100 8800 4100 17600 51300 6660 32200 18400 13100
2020-05-19 279000 80100 50000 17400 108000 19200 123000 55500 104000 13000 304000 17000 152000 1530000 12400 4700 15500 82800 22300 37700 7330 7980 46200 35000 15300 98000 28200 8340 7940 35000 87100 39900 49300 16300 10400 11600 20400 10500 3700 147000 6070 7090 354000 28800 5430 3780 67200 11200 8910 4190 17900 53500 6780 33700 18600 13600
2020-05-20 297000 81200 53300 18400 114000 20000 124000 58600 110000 13200 315000 18100 153000 1553000 12600 4800 16200 84500 22600 38200 7450 8160 46800 35400 15700 100000 28600 8480 8070 35400 88100 40800 49800 16800 10500 11900 21300 10800 3770 148000 6210 7190 356000 29300 5530 3840 68000 11400 9040 4290 18300 55700 6890 35200 18800 14100
2020-05-21 316000 82200 56900 19400 122000 20800 126000 62000 116000 13400 327000 19200 155000 1576000 12900 4910 16900 86100 22900 38700 7570 8340 47500 35900 16100 102000 29000 8620 8210 35800 89200 41600 50300 17400 10600 12100 22200 11000 3850 149000 6340 7300 358000 29800 5630 3910 68800 11600 9180 4380 18600 58100 7010 36800 19000 14600
2020-05-22 337000 83400 60700 20400 129000 21700 128000 65500 122000 13700 340000 20300 156000 1600000 13200 5010 17600 87800 23200 39200 7690 8530 48100 36300 16500 105000 29500 8760 8340 36100 90300 42500 50800 18100 10700 12400 23200 11300 3920 150000 6480 7420 360000 30300 5730 3970 69700 11800 9330 4480 19000 60600 7130 38500 19100 15200
2020-05-23 359000 84500 64700 21500 137000 22700 129000 69200 129000 13900 353000 21500 158000 1624000 13500 5120 18400 89500 23500 39700 7820 8730 48800 36700 16900 107000 29900 8910 8490 36500 91300 43400 51300 18700 10800 12600 24100 11600 4000 151000 6630 7530 362000 30900 5840 4040 70600 12000 9470 4590 19400 63100 7260 40200 19300 15800

Confirmed count forecast Europe (bold red line in graphs) 2020-05-17 to 2020-05-23

DateUKEUATBEBGCZDEDKESFIFRHUIEITNLPLPTROSECH
2020-05-16 240161 1089912 16201 54989 2175 8455 175752 10858 230698 6286 177207 3473 24048 224760 43870 18257 28810 16704 29677 30572
2020-05-17 243000 1094000 16300 55300 2210 8510 176000 10900 232000 6330 178000 3500 24200 226000 44100 18500 29000 16900 30200 30600
2020-05-18 246000 1098000 16300 55700 2240 8560 177000 11000 233000 6390 178000 3540 24400 227000 44300 18700 29200 17100 30700 30700
2020-05-19 249000 1102000 16400 56000 2270 8610 178000 11100 233000 6440 178000 3580 24500 227000 44500 19000 29400 17200 31200 30700
2020-05-20 252000 1105000 16400 56300 2300 8660 178000 11100 234000 6490 179000 3610 24700 228000 44700 19300 29600 17400 31700 30800
2020-05-21 255000 1108000 16500 56600 2330 8710 179000 11200 235000 6550 179000 3650 24800 229000 44900 19500 29800 17600 32300 30800
2020-05-22 258000 1111000 16600 57000 2360 8760 180000 11300 236000 6600 179000 3690 25000 230000 45100 19800 30000 17800 32800 30900
2020-05-23 261000 1113000 16600 57300 2390 8810 180000 11300 236000 6650 179000 3720 25200 231000 45300 20100 30200 18000 33300 30900

Confirmed count forecast (bold red line in graphs) 2020-05-17 to 2020-05-23

DateBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-IAUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-NCUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-RIUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WI
2020-05-16 233511 77206 41428 14939 90648 17025 118392 47144 88541 12305 272043 14355 148067 1467820 11674 4447 13666 78725 21556 36446 7042 7501 44732 33868 14313 92325 27280 7939 7657 34045 84587 37968 48083 14941 10096 11123 18130 10055 3546 144934 5767 6813 348232 27474 5237 3612 65185 10789 8661 3959 16923 47452 6489 29683 18176 12187
2020-05-17 250000 78300 44500 15700 97000 17700 120000 49500 95000 12500 281000 15200 150000 1490000 11900 4550 14300 80200 21900 37000 7160 7670 45300 34300 14600 94000 27700 8060 7820 34500 85800 38900 48600 15600 10200 11400 18800 10400 3620 146000 5880 6920 350000 27900 5330 3660 65900 11100 8840 4020 17200 49300 6590 31000 18300 12700
2020-05-18 268000 79400 47400 16600 103000 18300 122000 51900 101000 12700 291000 16000 151000 1511000 12200 4650 14900 81900 22200 37500 7280 7830 46000 34600 15000 96000 28200 8170 8000 34800 86900 39700 49100 16200 10300 11700 19500 10600 3700 147000 6010 7020 352000 28400 5430 3720 66700 11200 9000 4080 17500 51400 6710 32300 18600 13100
2020-05-19 288000 80400 50500 17500 110000 19000 123000 54500 107000 13000 300000 17000 152000 1533000 12500 4760 15600 83600 22500 38000 7400 8010 46600 35000 15300 99000 28700 8280 8200 35200 88000 40600 49600 16800 10500 11900 20300 10900 3780 148000 6140 7120 355000 28900 5540 3780 67600 11400 9160 4140 17800 53600 6820 33700 18800 13600
2020-05-20 308000 81500 53800 18400 117000 19800 125000 57200 114000 13200 310000 17900 154000 1554000 12700 4870 16400 85300 22800 38500 7510 8180 47300 35400 15600 101000 29100 8390 8390 35600 89200 41400 50100 17400 10600 12200 21100 11200 3860 149000 6280 7230 357000 29300 5650 3840 68400 11500 9320 4190 18000 55900 6940 35100 19000 14100
2020-05-21 330000 82600 57300 19300 125000 20600 127000 60100 122000 13400 320000 19000 155000 1575000 13000 4980 17100 87000 23100 39000 7630 8360 48000 35800 16000 103000 29600 8500 8590 36000 90300 42300 50600 18000 10700 12500 21900 11500 3940 150000 6420 7340 359000 29800 5760 3900 69200 11700 9490 4240 18300 58300 7060 36700 19200 14700
2020-05-22 353000 83700 61000 20400 134000 21400 128000 63100 130000 13600 331000 20100 157000 1596000 13300 5090 17900 88800 23500 39600 7750 8540 48600 36100 16300 105000 30100 8610 8800 36300 91400 43200 51100 18700 10800 12700 22800 11800 4030 151000 6560 7450 361000 30300 5880 3960 70100 11800 9660 4300 18600 60800 7180 38300 19400 15200
2020-05-23 379000 84800 65000 21500 143000 22200 130000 66300 138000 13900 342000 21300 158000 1617000 13600 5210 18800 90500 23800 40100 7870 8730 49300 36500 16700 107000 30600 8710 9010 36700 92600 44200 51600 19300 11000 13000 23700 12200 4110 152000 6700 7560 363000 30800 5990 4020 70900 12000 9830 4350 18900 63500 7300 39900 19600 15800

Confirmed count scenario forecast (bold purple line in graphs) 2020-05-17 to 2020-05-25

DateUKEUATBEBGCZDEDKESFIFRHUIEITNLPLPTROSECHBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-IAUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-NCUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-RIUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WI
2020-05-16 240161 1089912 16201 54989 2175 8455 175752 10858 230698 6286 177207 3473 24048 224760 43870 18257 28810 16704 29677 30572 233511 77206 41428 14939 90648 17025 118392 47144 88541 12305 272043 14355 148067 1467820 11674 4447 13666 78725 21556 36446 7042 7501 44732 33868 14313 92325 27280 7939 7657 34045 84587 37968 48083 14941 10096 11123 18130 10055 3546 144934 5767 6813 348232 27474 5237 3612 65185 10789 8661 3959 16923 47452 6489 29683 18176 12187
2020-05-17 242000 1093000 16200 55200 2190 8490 176000 10900 232000 6300 177000 3480 24200 226000 44000 18600 28900 16800 30100 30600 245000 78000 43900 15500 94000 17500 119000 49100 92000 12500 281000 14900 149000 1472000 11900 4510 14000 79700 21700 36600 7100 7640 45200 34200 14700 94000 27500 8080 7800 34500 85000 38400 48500 15200 10100 11300 18600 10300 3570 145000 5840 6890 350000 27900 5280 3640 65500 11100 8730 4030 17300 48400 6570 30500 18200 12500
2020-05-18 244000 1096000 16300 55300 2210 8530 177000 10900 232000 6330 177000 3520 24300 226000 44200 18800 28900 16900 30500 30600 257000 79000 47000 16000 97000 17900 121000 51000 95000 12600 289000 15300 150000 1486000 12200 4580 14500 81100 21900 36900 7180 7800 45800 34600 15000 96000 27900 8210 8020 34900 85900 39100 48900 15700 10200 11500 19100 10600 3630 146000 5930 6980 352000 28300 5340 3670 66000 11400 8890 4100 17500 49700 6680 31200 18400 12900
2020-05-19 246000 1099000 16300 55500 2230 8570 177000 11000 233000 6360 177000 3540 24500 227000 44300 19100 29000 17000 30800 30700 265000 79900 49400 16400 100000 18200 122000 52100 98000 12700 298000 15800 151000 1500000 12400 4640 14900 82000 22100 37200 7260 7940 46200 34900 15300 98000 28200 8350 8250 35200 86500 39700 49300 16200 10300 11600 19400 10800 3690 146000 6030 7050 353000 28700 5410 3710 66600 11500 8940 4170 17800 50100 6770 31900 18500 13200
2020-05-20 247000 1101000 16400 55600 2250 8600 177000 11000 233000 6380 177000 3570 24600 227000 44400 19300 29000 17100 31100 30700 276000 80800 52400 17100 104000 18700 123000 54000 101000 12900 306000 16200 152000 1511000 12800 4700 15200 83300 22300 37500 7360 8060 46700 35100 15700 100000 28500 8480 8510 35500 87000 40300 49700 16700 10400 11800 19800 11100 3750 147000 6120 7120 355000 29100 5460 3740 67000 11800 9020 4250 18000 52100 6840 32600 18700 13500
2020-05-21 249000 1104000 16400 55700 2270 8630 178000 11000 234000 6400 177000 3590 24700 228000 44500 19500 29100 17200 31400 30700 285000 81500 54100 17500 107000 19000 124000 55200 104000 13000 314000 16600 153000 1519000 13000 4750 15500 84500 22500 37700 7430 8180 47200 35400 16000 101000 28800 8600 8770 35700 87600 40800 50000 17100 10500 11900 20100 11400 3800 147000 6170 7170 356000 29500 5510 3770 67300 12000 9090 4330 18200 53000 6920 33100 18800 13800
2020-05-22 250000 1105000 16500 55800 2290 8660 178000 11000 234000 6430 177000 3600 24800 228000 44600 19700 29200 17200 31700 30800 295000 82200 56200 17900 109000 19300 125000 56600 107000 13100 321000 16900 154000 1530000 13200 4810 15800 85100 22700 37900 7500 8300 47600 35700 16200 103000 29100 8730 9000 35900 87900 41300 50100 17600 10600 12100 20500 11700 3840 148000 6210 7200 358000 29800 5540 3790 67700 12400 9170 4390 18400 53800 7010 33700 18900 14100
2020-05-23 251000 1106000 16500 55900 2300 8690 178000 11100 234000 6440 177000 3620 24900 228000 44700 19800 29200 17300 32000 30800 303000 82800 57900 18300 112000 19500 126000 58200 109000 13200 328000 17400 155000 1538000 13500 4860 16000 86000 22800 38100 7550 8390 47900 35900 16600 104000 29400 8850 9190 36000 88100 41800 50200 18000 10600 12300 20800 12000 3880 148000 6250 7260 359000 30000 5580 3810 67900 12900 9260 4500 18600 53800 7080 34200 19000 14300
2020-05-24 252000 1107000 16500 55900 2320 8700 178000 11100 234000 6450 177000 3630 25000 229000 44800 19900 29200 17300 32200 30800 311000 83200 59400 18700 115000 19700 126000 59400 112000 13300 335000 17700 155000 1543000 13700 4890 16300 87000 22900 38300 7620 8490 48200 36100 16900 106000 29600 8930 9380 36200 88500 42200 50400 18400 10700 12500 21100 12200 3920 149000 6320 7260 360000 30300 5620 3830 68200 13100 9340 4600 18700 53900 7150 34600 19000 14500
2020-05-25 253000 1108000 16500 55900 2330 8720 178000 11100 234000 6460 177000 3640 25000 229000 44900 20000 29300 17400 32300 30900 318000 83500 60800 19000 117000 20000 126000 60600 114000 13300 343000 18200 156000 1549000 14000 4930 16600 87900 23000 38400 7650 8570 48300 36300 17200 107000 29800 9040 9570 36300 89000 42600 50500 18800 10700 12700 21400 12400 3960 149000 6390 7280 361000 30500 5640 3850 68400 13600 9420 4730 18900 54100 7210 35100 19100 14800

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in Europe 2020-05-16

UKEUATBEBGCZDEDKESFIFRHUIEITNLPLPTROSECH
Peak date04-1003-2803-2604-1504-2403-2803-2804-0403-2704-0604-1204-1004-1303-2104-1004-1904-1004-1104-2403-23
Peak daily increment 5959 29746 875 1470 76 284 6004 333 8152 181 13260 128 985 5698 1173 404 904 376 657 1205
Days from 100 to peak 36 34 18 39 36 15 27 25 25 24 42 20 30 27 35 35 28 28 48 18
Days from peak/2 to peak 22 18 13 31 40 14 15 25 14 24 26 22 24 17 29 33 23 25 45 12
Days since peak 36 49 51 31 22 49 49 42 50 40 34 36 33 56 36 27 36 35 22 54

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed 2020-05-16

BrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-IAUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-NCUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-RIUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WI
Peak date --05-03 -- -- -- --03-31 -- --03-3105-09 --04-1104-0905-0704-23 --05-0904-2404-2205-0104-2604-0204-1405-0205-0304-2704-3005-0504-0404-2405-0104-0305-0704-10 -- --05-0105-0104-0705-0204-0404-0904-1904-0404-1204-0905-1104-0205-0805-02 --05-03 --03-28 --
Peak daily increment 1901 3107 361 11198 4742 31687 315 185 1954 649 1221 212 257 1289 909 596 2693 739 301 267 1780 3103 1112 1616 701 271 457 106 4368 177 181 10035 1124 133 80 1694 904 214 164 624 152 460
Days from 100 to peak 53 35 17 53 23 37 48 30 61 40 34 40 32 17 29 40 48 37 37 42 19 42 43 16 48 19 33 37 22 38 15 31 31 11 23 23 47 13 38 45 43 20
Days from peak/2 to peak 44 28 13 33 17 20 46 30 51 35 28 40 31 12 24 34 40 33 35 41 12 30 36 12 41 18 29 41 15 39 15 20 26 13 27 16 39 13 40 41 44 17
Days since peak 13 46 46 7 35 37 9 23 7 22 24 15 20 44 32 14 13 19 16 11 42 22 15 43 9 36 15 15 39 14 42 37 27 42 34 37 5 44 8 14 13 49

Initial visual evaluation of forecasts of Confirmed