COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2020-05-20


Disclaimer

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. The documentation that is provided is still in progress and not peer reviewed. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.

Recent changes

[2020-03-24] Our forecasts are starting to overestimate in some cases. This was always expected to happen when the increase starts to slow down. Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, but only for Italy and Spain sofar.
[2020-03-26] Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, only for Italy.
[2020-03-31] Scenario forecasts, based on what happened in China earlier this year, are presented for several countries (line marked with x). Created more plausible 90% confidence bands (dotted line in same colour).
[2020-04-02] Now including more US States, based on New York Times data. And the world.
[2020-04-06] Added a post hoc estimate of the peak number of cases. This needs at least three confirmed observations (four for deaths) after the event. It is based on the averaged smooth trend, and can change later or be a local peak. It is marked with a vertical line with the date label, or a date with left arrow in the bottom left corner of the graph. This is backported to 2020-04-04.
[2020-04-08] Minor correction to peak estimates. Added table with scenario forecasts.
[2020-04-09] Added table with estimated peak dates (if happened) and dates to and since the peak. Note that this can be a local peak, and subsequent re-acceleration (or data revisions) can result in a new peak later.
[2020-04-10] Updated documentation with better description of short-term estimates and peak determination.
[2020-04-16] Added scenario forecasts to all graphs now. This would now be the preferred forecast for most.
This is the first time with a peak in confirmed UK cases (also for deaths, but this is uncertain because it is at the same date).
[2020-04-17] Bird and Nielsen look into nowcasting death counts in England.
[2020-04-24] A summary of our work on short-term COVID-19 forecasting appeared as a voxeu.
[2020-04-27] Our short-term COVID-19 forecasting paper is now available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06.
A small adjustment has been made to the scenario forecast methodology, and will be documented shortly.
[2020-04-29] See our blog entry at the International Institute of Forecasters.
US history of death counts revised in Johns Hopkins/CSSE data.
UK death counts have been revised to include the deaths in care homes. In the Johns Hopkins/CSSE data set, which we use, the entire history has been revised. So forecasts made up to 2020-04-29 cannot be compared to later outcomes. In the ECDC data set only the last observation has changed, causing a jump in the series.
[2020-05-06] The New York Times is in the process of redefining its US state data. Unfortunately, at the moment only the last observation has changed (e.g New York deaths jumped from 19645 on 2020-05-05 to 25956 a day later). This means the data is currently useless; however it does bring it close to the Johns Hopkins/CSSE count (25626 on 2020-05-06). The aggregate US count is based on JH/CSSE so unaffected. We now use Johns Hopkins/CSSE US state data, including all states with sufficient counts. So the new forecasts cannot be compared to those previously.
A minor change is that we show the graph without scenario forecast if no peak has been detected yet.
[2020-05-13] We now omit countries with fewer than 200 confirmed cases in the last week (25 for deaths).
The short-term paper has some small updates, including further comparisons with other models.
Data for Ecuador are not reliable enough for forecasting.
Switched to an improved version of scenario forecasting.
[2020-05-18] Minor fixes to the improved version of scenario forecasting, backported to 2020-05-13.
[2020-05-20] Problem with UK confirmed cases: negative daily count. This makes the forecasts unreliable.
Updated the second paper.

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Confirmed count average forecast Europe (bold black line in graphs) 2020-05-21 to 2020-05-27

DateUKEUATBECZDEDKESFIFRHUIEITNLPLPTROSE
2020-05-20 248293 1106951 16353 55983 8721 178473 11117 232555 6443 179069 3598 24315 227364 44447 19739 29660 17387 31523
2020-05-21 250000 1109000 16400 56200 8760 179000 11200 233000 6480 179000 3620 24400 228000 44600 19900 29800 17500 31800
2020-05-22 252000 1112000 16400 56500 8800 179000 11200 234000 6530 179000 3650 24500 229000 44700 20100 30000 17700 32100
2020-05-23 255000 1115000 16500 56800 8850 180000 11300 234000 6580 180000 3680 24600 229000 44900 20400 30200 17900 32500
2020-05-24 257000 1118000 16500 57000 8900 181000 11400 235000 6620 180000 3720 24700 230000 45100 20700 30400 18100 33000
2020-05-25 260000 1120000 16600 57300 8950 181000 11400 235000 6670 180000 3750 24800 231000 45200 21100 30600 18200 33400
2020-05-26 262000 1122000 16700 57600 9010 182000 11500 236000 6720 180000 3780 24900 232000 45400 21400 30800 18400 33800
2020-05-27 265000 1123000 16700 57800 9060 182000 11500 236000 6770 180000 3810 25000 232000 45600 21700 31100 18600 34300

Confirmed count average forecast (bold black line in graphs) 2020-05-21 to 2020-05-27

DateBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-IAUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-RIUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WI
2020-05-20 291579 81575 53617 17687 112028 19189 126949 56594 104020 13221 308705 18003 152587 1551853 13052 4870 14906 85997 22730 38815 7551 8146 47391 35730 15612 100256 29274 8507 8135 35244 88638 42323 49668 17638 10604 11967 20262 2095 10952 3854 150776 6307 7388 354370 29436 5532 3801 68126 11800 9175 4177 17942 51673 7048 32908 18923 13413
2020-05-21 306000 82600 56000 18500 119000 19900 128000 59500 109000 13400 317000 18900 154000 1572000 13300 4960 15200 86700 23000 39200 7620 8260 48000 35800 15900 102000 29700 8590 8230 35500 89500 43800 49900 18400 10700 12100 20600 2120 11200 3870 152000 6360 7420 356000 29800 5610 3820 68800 11800 9300 4210 18100 52500 7130 33600 19100 13600
2020-05-22 326000 83600 59500 19400 126000 20700 130000 62700 115000 13600 326000 19800 155000 1594000 13700 5070 15500 88200 23300 39700 7740 8410 48600 36000 16200 103000 30200 8700 8350 35800 90600 45500 50300 19300 10800 12300 21000 2160 11400 3920 153000 6460 7510 358000 30300 5690 3860 69500 11800 9400 4270 18400 53500 7260 34400 19300 13900
2020-05-23 346000 84600 63300 20400 134000 21500 131000 66100 121000 13800 335000 20800 156000 1616000 14200 5180 15800 89800 23600 40200 7860 8560 49300 36300 16500 105000 30700 8800 8490 36100 91600 47200 50700 20300 11000 12500 21500 2200 11700 3970 154000 6580 7610 360000 30700 5770 3900 70300 11900 9600 4330 18600 54600 7390 35300 19500 14200
2020-05-24 368000 85700 67300 21400 142000 22400 133000 69700 127000 14000 344000 21900 157000 1638000 14600 5280 16200 91400 23900 40800 7970 8720 50000 36600 16800 107000 31200 8910 8630 36300 92600 49100 51100 21300 11100 12700 22000 2260 11900 4040 155000 6710 7710 361000 31200 5850 3940 71100 11900 9700 4390 18900 55700 7520 36100 19700 14600
2020-05-25 391000 86800 71600 22500 151000 23300 135000 73500 133000 14200 354000 23000 159000 1660000 15100 5400 16500 93000 24200 41300 8100 8880 50600 36900 17200 109000 31700 9030 8770 36600 93700 51000 51500 22300 11200 12900 22500 2320 12200 4110 156000 6830 7830 363000 31700 5940 3990 71800 12000 9900 4460 19200 56900 7650 37000 19900 14900
2020-05-26 416000 87900 76200 23600 160000 24200 137000 77600 140000 14400 364000 24100 160000 1683000 15600 5510 16900 94600 24600 41800 8220 9050 51300 37300 17500 110000 32200 9170 8920 36900 94700 53000 51900 23400 11400 13200 23000 2370 12400 4180 157000 6960 7950 365000 32200 6030 4030 72600 12000 10000 4530 19400 58100 7790 37900 20100 15200
2020-05-27 442000 89000 81000 24800 171000 25200 139000 81800 148000 14600 374000 25400 161000 1706000 16200 5630 17200 96300 24900 42400 8350 9230 52000 37600 17800 112000 32700 9300 9070 37200 95800 55100 52300 24500 11500 13400 23500 2430 12700 4250 159000 7090 8070 367000 32700 6120 4080 73400 12000 10200 4600 19700 59300 7920 38800 20300 15600

Confirmed count forecast Europe (bold red line in graphs) 2020-05-21 to 2020-05-27

DateUKEUATBECZDEDKESFIFRHUIEITNLPLPTROSE
2020-05-20 248293 1106951 16353 55983 8721 178473 11117 232555 6443 179069 3598 24315 227364 44447 19739 29660 17387 31523
2020-05-21 249000 1112000 16400 56200 8780 179000 11200 233000 6490 179000 3630 24400 228000 44600 20000 29900 17600 31900
2020-05-22 251000 1116000 16500 56500 8840 180000 11200 234000 6530 180000 3660 24500 229000 44800 20300 30100 17700 32400
2020-05-23 252000 1120000 16500 56700 8900 180000 11300 235000 6570 180000 3690 24500 229000 44900 20700 30300 17900 32800
2020-05-24 253000 1124000 16600 56900 8960 181000 11400 235000 6610 180000 3720 24600 230000 45100 21000 30500 18100 33300
2020-05-25 254000 1127000 16600 57200 9020 182000 11400 236000 6650 181000 3750 24700 231000 45200 21400 30700 18200 33700
2020-05-26 255000 1130000 16600 57400 9090 182000 11500 236000 6690 181000 3780 24700 232000 45400 21700 30900 18400 34200
2020-05-27 256000 1133000 16700 57700 9150 183000 11500 237000 6730 181000 3820 24800 232000 45500 22100 31100 18600 34700

Confirmed count forecast (bold red line in graphs) 2020-05-21 to 2020-05-27

DateBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-IAUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-RIUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WI
2020-05-20 291579 81575 53617 17687 112028 19189 126949 56594 104020 13221 308705 18003 152587 1551853 13052 4870 14906 85997 22730 38815 7551 8146 47391 35730 15612 100256 29274 8507 8135 35244 88638 42323 49668 17638 10604 11967 20262 2095 10952 3854 150776 6307 7388 354370 29436 5532 3801 68126 11800 9175 4177 17942 51673 7048 32908 18923 13413
2020-05-21 310000 82600 57300 18600 118000 19900 129000 59500 109000 13400 317000 18800 154000 1573000 13400 4960 15200 87600 23000 39200 7670 8290 47900 36100 15900 102000 29800 8620 8260 35500 89600 43900 50100 18500 10700 12200 20600 2160 11100 3910 152000 6410 7480 356000 29900 5610 3840 68900 11800 9300 4230 18100 52700 7170 33600 19100 13800
2020-05-22 330000 83600 61200 19500 125000 20700 131000 62700 115000 13600 325000 19600 155000 1593000 13900 5050 15500 89300 23300 39700 7800 8440 48500 36500 16200 104000 30300 8740 8380 35800 90500 45600 50500 19400 10800 12400 21200 2220 11400 3990 153000 6540 7620 358000 30300 5670 3890 69600 11900 9400 4290 18300 53800 7300 34300 19200 14100
2020-05-23 351000 84600 65500 20500 133000 21600 132000 66000 121000 13900 334000 20500 156000 1613000 14400 5140 15800 91000 23600 40100 7920 8590 49000 36900 16400 105000 30800 8870 8500 36000 91500 47300 50900 20300 10900 12700 21700 2280 11600 4070 155000 6670 7760 359000 30800 5740 3940 70400 12100 9500 4340 18500 54900 7440 35100 19400 14400
2020-05-24 374000 85600 70000 21500 141000 22400 134000 69600 127000 14100 342000 21400 157000 1633000 15000 5240 16100 92700 23900 40600 8050 8750 49600 37300 16700 107000 31300 8990 8620 36300 92400 49100 51300 21300 11000 12900 22300 2350 11800 4150 156000 6810 7900 361000 31200 5810 3980 71100 12200 9700 4390 18700 56000 7570 35900 19600 14800
2020-05-25 398000 86600 74800 22500 150000 23400 136000 73300 133000 14300 351000 22400 158000 1653000 15500 5330 16400 94500 24200 41100 8180 8900 50100 37700 17000 109000 31800 9120 8740 36500 93400 51000 51700 22300 11100 13100 22800 2420 12000 4230 157000 6940 8050 362000 31700 5880 4030 71900 12400 9800 4440 18900 57200 7710 36600 19700 15100
2020-05-26 424000 87700 79900 23600 160000 24300 138000 77200 140000 14500 360000 23400 159000 1673000 16100 5420 16700 96200 24500 41600 8310 9060 50700 38100 17300 111000 32300 9250 8870 36800 94300 52900 52100 23400 11200 13400 23400 2490 12200 4320 158000 7080 8190 364000 32100 5950 4080 72600 12600 9900 4490 19100 58400 7850 37400 19900 15500
2020-05-27 451000 88700 85400 24800 169000 25300 140000 81300 147000 14700 369000 24400 160000 1693000 16700 5520 17000 98000 24800 42100 8440 9220 51300 38500 17600 112000 32800 9380 9000 37100 95300 55000 52500 24500 11300 13600 24000 2560 12500 4410 160000 7230 8340 366000 32600 6020 4130 73400 12800 10000 4540 19200 59500 8000 38200 20100 15900

Confirmed count scenario forecast (bold purple line in graphs) 2020-05-21 to 2020-05-29

DateUKEUATBECZDEDKESFIFRHUIEITNLPLPTROSEBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-IAUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-RIUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WI
2020-05-20 248293 1106951 16353 55983 8721 178473 11117 232555 6443 179069 3598 24315 227364 44447 19739 29660 17387 31523 291579 81575 53617 17687 112028 19189 126949 56594 104020 13221 308705 18003 152587 1551853 13052 4870 14906 85997 22730 38815 7551 8146 47391 35730 15612 100256 29274 8507 8135 35244 88638 42323 49668 17638 10604 11967 20262 2095 10952 3854 150776 6307 7388 354370 29436 5532 3801 68126 11800 9175 4177 17942 51673 7048 32908 18923 13413
2020-05-21 252000 1109000 16400 56200 8780 179000 11200 233000 6490 179000 3620 24400 228000 44500 19800 29800 17500 31800 304000 82400 55700 18400 117000 19600 128000 58800 107000 13300 315000 18700 154000 1561000 13300 4950 15200 87100 23000 39200 7650 8250 48000 35800 15800 101000 29600 8620 8280 35500 89400 43500 49900 18500 10700 12100 20700 2140 11200 3900 152000 6360 7400 356000 29800 5610 3810 68600 11800 9300 4220 18300 52800 7150 33500 19100 13600
2020-05-22 254000 1113000 16400 56400 8840 180000 11200 233000 6540 179000 3650 24400 229000 44700 20100 30000 17700 32100 314000 83300 58200 19000 122000 20100 130000 60800 110000 13500 322000 19300 155000 1576000 13500 5030 15500 88600 23200 39700 7770 8360 48500 36100 16100 103000 30000 8730 8380 35700 90000 44500 50200 19400 10800 12300 21200 2190 11400 3970 153000 6460 7490 357000 30100 5670 3850 69000 11800 9420 4280 18400 53900 7260 34200 19300 13900
2020-05-23 255000 1115000 16500 56500 8890 180000 11200 233000 6580 180000 3670 24500 229000 44800 20300 30200 17800 32300 328000 84200 60600 19600 127000 20500 132000 62700 113000 13600 329000 20000 156000 1590000 14000 5080 15800 90400 23400 40100 7870 8450 48900 36400 16200 104000 30400 8850 8500 35900 90600 45500 50400 20400 11000 12500 21800 2240 11600 4010 154000 6540 7580 359000 30500 5740 3880 69400 11800 9540 4360 18500 55200 7370 34900 19400 14200
2020-05-24 257000 1117000 16500 56700 8930 181000 11300 233000 6630 180000 3690 24500 229000 44800 20500 30400 17900 32500 337000 85000 62900 20100 131000 20900 134000 63800 115000 13700 335000 20600 156000 1599000 14400 5150 16100 91600 23600 40400 7950 8530 49400 36700 16400 105000 30600 8960 8580 36100 91000 46600 50700 21300 11000 12700 22300 2280 11800 4080 155000 6600 7640 360000 30800 5790 3900 69700 12000 9640 4430 18700 56400 7480 35400 19500 14500
2020-05-25 258000 1119000 16500 56800 8980 181000 11300 233000 6670 180000 3710 24500 230000 44900 20600 30600 18000 32800 347000 85700 64700 20600 136000 21200 135000 65600 117000 13900 340000 21100 157000 1608000 14600 5200 16200 92500 23700 40700 8030 8610 49600 36900 16600 106000 30900 9050 8650 36300 91500 47300 50800 22000 11100 12900 22900 2320 11900 4120 156000 6660 7690 361000 31100 5830 3920 70000 12000 9730 4490 18800 57500 7560 36000 19600 14500
2020-05-26 259000 1120000 16600 57000 9020 182000 11300 233000 6700 181000 3720 24600 230000 45000 20800 30800 18100 33000 359000 86500 66400 21100 140000 21600 136000 66800 121000 14000 346000 21800 157000 1616000 14800 5250 16400 93800 23800 41000 8100 8680 49800 37100 16700 107000 31100 9140 8710 36400 91800 48100 51000 22600 11200 13000 23200 2340 12000 4180 157000 6730 7760 361000 31300 5870 3940 70300 12100 9790 4530 18900 59000 7620 36500 19700 14700
2020-05-27 260000 1122000 16600 57100 9050 182000 11400 233000 6720 181000 3740 24600 230000 45100 20900 30900 18200 33200 367000 87000 67700 21500 143000 22100 137000 67700 123000 14100 352000 22300 158000 1623000 14900 5300 16500 94900 23900 41200 8160 8750 50000 37300 16900 108000 31300 9230 8780 36600 92100 48400 51100 23200 11300 13100 23700 2370 12200 4230 157000 6790 7830 362000 31500 5900 3950 70500 12300 9860 4570 19000 59900 7680 37000 19800 14700
2020-05-28 261000 1124000 16600 57200 9080 183000 11400 233000 6750 182000 3760 24600 231000 45100 21000 31000 18300 33300 378000 87500 69500 21900 146000 22500 138000 69000 125000 14100 358000 22800 158000 1629000 15100 5340 16700 95800 24100 41400 8220 8820 50200 37400 17000 109000 31500 9290 8820 36700 92500 49100 51200 23700 11300 13200 24300 2400 12300 4260 158000 6840 7880 363000 31700 5930 3970 70700 12300 9920 4610 19100 60800 7750 37400 19800 14800
2020-05-29 262000 1125000 16600 57300 9090 183000 11400 233000 6770 182000 3770 24600 231000 45200 21100 31100 18300 33500 389000 88000 71000 22400 150000 22900 139000 70000 127000 14200 363000 23700 159000 1634000 15200 5380 16900 96400 24200 41600 8270 8890 50300 37600 17100 110000 31600 9350 8850 36800 92800 49700 51400 24500 11400 13300 24800 2430 12400 4290 159000 6900 7930 363000 31900 5960 3990 70900 12400 9980 4650 19200 62000 7820 37900 19900 14900

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in Europe 2020-05-20

UKEUATBECZDEDKESFIFRHUIEITNLPLPTROSE
Peak date04-1003-2803-2604-1503-2803-2804-0403-2704-0604-1204-1004-1303-2104-1004-1904-1004-1104-24
Peak daily increment 5958 29747 875 1470 284 6004 333 8151 181 13261 128 985 5697 1173 404 904 376 657
Days from 100 to peak 36 34 18 39 15 27 25 25 24 42 20 30 27 35 35 28 28 48
Days from peak/2 to peak 22 18 13 31 14 15 25 14 24 26 22 24 17 29 33 23 25 45
Days since peak 40 53 55 35 53 53 46 54 44 38 40 37 60 40 31 40 39 26

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed 2020-05-20

BrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-IAUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-RIUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WI
Peak date --05-03 -- -- -- --03-31 -- --03-3105-09 --04-1104-09 --04-2305-1405-0904-2404-2205-0104-2604-0204-1405-0205-0304-2704-3005-0504-0404-24 --04-03 --04-1005-05 -- --05-0105-0104-0705-0204-0304-0904-1904-0404-1204-0905-1104-0205-0905-0205-1605-0305-1403-28 --
Peak daily increment 1894 3107 361 11069 4742 31728 185 427 1913 638 1221 209 257 1289 909 591 2693 739 301 283 1781 3103 1616 271 294 451 105 4368 177 176 10035 1124 133 80 1694 745 214 171 619 1398 152 983 460
Days from 100 to peak 53 35 17 53 23 37 30 54 61 40 34 40 32 17 29 40 48 37 37 42 19 42 16 19 45 33 37 22 38 14 31 31 11 23 23 47 13 39 45 60 43 56 20
Days from peak/2 to peak 44 28 13 34 17 20 30 52 51 35 28 40 31 12 24 34 40 33 35 40 12 30 12 18 44 29 41 15 39 14 20 26 13 27 16 40 13 40 41 54 44 48 17
Days since peak 17 50 50 11 39 41 27 6 11 26 28 19 24 48 36 18 17 23 20 15 46 26 47 40 15 19 19 43 18 47 41 31 46 38 41 9 48 11 18 4 17 6 53

Initial visual evaluation of forecasts of Confirmed