COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2020-05-25


Disclaimer

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. The documentation that is provided is still in progress and not peer reviewed. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.

Recent changes

[2020-03-24] Our forecasts are starting to overestimate in some cases. This was always expected to happen when the increase starts to slow down. Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, but only for Italy and Spain sofar.
[2020-03-26] Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, only for Italy.
[2020-03-31] Scenario forecasts, based on what happened in China earlier this year, are presented for several countries (line marked with x). Created more plausible 90% confidence bands (dotted line in same colour).
[2020-04-02] Now including more US States, based on New York Times data. And the world.
[2020-04-06] Added a post hoc estimate of the peak number of cases. This needs at least three confirmed observations (four for deaths) after the event. It is based on the averaged smooth trend, and can change later or be a local peak. It is marked with a vertical line with the date label, or a date with left arrow in the bottom left corner of the graph. This is backported to 2020-04-04.
[2020-04-08] Minor correction to peak estimates. Added table with scenario forecasts.
[2020-04-09] Added table with estimated peak dates (if happened) and dates to and since the peak. Note that this can be a local peak, and subsequent re-acceleration (or data revisions) can result in a new peak later.
[2020-04-10] Updated documentation with better description of short-term estimates and peak determination.
[2020-04-16] Added scenario forecasts to all graphs now. This would now be the preferred forecast for most.
This is the first time with a peak in confirmed UK cases (also for deaths, but this is uncertain because it is at the same date).
[2020-04-17] Bird and Nielsen look into nowcasting death counts in England.
[2020-04-24] A summary of our work on short-term COVID-19 forecasting appeared as a voxeu.
[2020-04-27] Our short-term COVID-19 forecasting paper is now available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06.
A small adjustment has been made to the scenario forecast methodology, and will be documented shortly.
[2020-04-29] See our blog entry at the International Institute of Forecasters.
US history of death counts revised in Johns Hopkins/CSSE data.
UK death counts have been revised to include the deaths in care homes. In the Johns Hopkins/CSSE data set, which we use, the entire history has been revised. So forecasts made up to 2020-04-29 cannot be compared to later outcomes. In the ECDC data set only the last observation has changed, causing a jump in the series.
[2020-05-06] The New York Times is in the process of redefining its US state data. Unfortunately, at the moment only the last observation has changed (e.g New York deaths jumped from 19645 on 2020-05-05 to 25956 a day later). This means the data is currently useless; however it does bring it close to the Johns Hopkins/CSSE count (25626 on 2020-05-06). The aggregate US count is based on JH/CSSE so unaffected. We now use Johns Hopkins/CSSE US state data, including all states with sufficient counts. So the new forecasts cannot be compared to those previously.
A minor change is that we show the graph without scenario forecast if no peak has been detected yet.
[2020-05-13] We now omit countries with fewer than 200 confirmed cases in the last week (25 for deaths).
The short-term paper has some small updates, including further comparisons with other models.
Data for Ecuador are not reliable enough for forecasting.
Switched to an improved version of scenario forecasting.
[2020-05-18] Minor fixes to the improved version of scenario forecasting, backported to 2020-05-13.
[2020-05-20] Problem with UK confirmed cases: negative daily count. This makes the forecasts temporarily unreliable.
Updated the second paper.

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Confirmed count average forecast Europe (bold black line in graphs) 2020-05-26 to 2020-06-01

DateUKEUATBECZDEDKESFIFRHUIEITNLPLPTROSE
2020-05-25 261184 1126225 16539 57342 9002 180600 11387 235400 6599 180166 3756 24698 230158 45445 21631 30788 18283 33843
2020-05-26 263000 1129000 16600 57600 9050 181000 11400 236000 6620 180000 3780 24800 231000 45600 22000 31000 18400 34200
2020-05-27 265000 1132000 16600 57800 9110 182000 11500 236000 6650 180000 3810 24800 231000 45800 22300 31200 18500 34600
2020-05-28 267000 1135000 16600 58100 9160 182000 11600 237000 6680 180000 3840 24900 232000 46000 22700 31400 18700 35000
2020-05-29 269000 1138000 16700 58300 9220 183000 11600 238000 6710 181000 3870 25000 232000 46100 23100 31600 18800 35500
2020-05-30 271000 1140000 16700 58600 9270 183000 11700 239000 6740 181000 3900 25100 233000 46300 23500 31800 19000 35900
2020-05-31 274000 1142000 16800 58900 9330 184000 11700 239000 6770 181000 3930 25200 234000 46500 23800 32000 19100 36400
2020-06-01 276000 1144000 16800 59100 9390 184000 11800 240000 6800 181000 3970 25300 234000 46700 24200 32200 19300 36800

Confirmed count average forecast (bold black line in graphs) 2020-05-26 to 2020-06-01

DateBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-IAUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-RIUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WI
2020-05-25 374898 87119 73997 21981 144950 22750 137724 71105 123979 14319 353427 23615 157814 1662302 14986 5870 16575 96400 24256 40649 8225 8910 51661 39120 17551 111743 31715 9125 8542 37732 92921 47152 2074 51378 21293 11426 13458 24057 2457 12173 4185 154866 6837 7956 362764 32477 6090 3949 71925 12547 10178 4586 20121 56409 7752 37727 20003 15584
2020-05-26 391000 88100 79000 22900 153000 23500 140000 74000 127000 14400 360000 24800 159000 1681000 15500 6070 16900 98000 24500 40900 8310 8980 52100 39600 17900 113000 32100 9210 8590 37900 93700 48100 2110 51700 22200 11500 13700 24700 2510 12400 4240 156000 6900 8020 364000 33000 6170 3980 72500 12700 10300 4650 20300 57200 7880 38100 20100 16100
2020-05-27 409000 89100 84000 24000 163000 24600 142000 78000 130000 14600 369000 26200 160000 1700000 16100 6300 17200 100000 24800 41300 8420 9080 52800 40100 18300 115000 32600 9330 8670 38300 94500 49000 2160 52000 23200 11500 14000 25400 2580 12600 4310 157000 6980 8110 366000 33500 6260 4010 73200 12800 10500 4730 20600 58000 8010 38900 20200 16700
2020-05-28 428000 90100 89000 25100 173000 25600 144000 83000 134000 14800 377000 27600 161000 1718000 16700 6540 17600 102000 25100 41700 8540 9180 53600 40700 18700 117000 33100 9450 8760 38600 95300 50000 2210 52400 24200 11600 14200 26200 2660 12800 4380 157000 7070 8200 367000 34000 6360 4050 73900 13000 10700 4810 21000 58900 8150 39700 20300 17400
2020-05-29 448000 91100 95000 26300 183000 26700 146000 87000 138000 15000 386000 29100 162000 1736000 17300 6790 18000 104000 25300 42000 8660 9280 54300 41300 19100 119000 33500 9570 8840 39000 96100 51000 2260 52700 25300 11700 14500 26900 2740 13000 4450 158000 7160 8300 369000 34600 6450 4080 74600 13200 10900 4890 21300 59800 8290 40600 20400 18100
2020-05-30 469000 92200 102000 27600 195000 27900 148000 92000 142000 15200 394000 30700 163000 1753000 18000 7040 18400 106000 25600 42400 8780 9390 55000 41900 19600 121000 34000 9690 8920 39400 96900 52100 2310 53100 26500 11800 14800 27700 2810 13300 4520 159000 7260 8390 371000 35100 6550 4110 75400 13400 11000 4970 21700 60700 8430 41400 20600 18800
2020-05-31 492000 93200 109000 28900 207000 29100 150000 97000 147000 15400 404000 32400 164000 1771000 18600 7310 18800 108000 25900 42700 8900 9520 55700 42500 20000 123000 34500 9810 9010 39800 97700 53100 2360 53400 27700 12000 15100 28500 2900 13500 4590 160000 7370 8500 372000 35700 6650 4150 76100 13600 11200 5050 22000 61700 8580 42300 20700 19500
2020-06-01 515000 94300 116000 30200 220000 30300 152000 102000 151000 15600 413000 34200 164000 1788000 19300 7590 19200 110000 26200 43100 9030 9640 56500 43200 20500 125000 35000 9940 9100 40100 98500 54200 2420 53800 28900 12100 15400 29400 2980 13800 4670 161000 7470 8620 374000 36300 6750 4180 76900 13700 11400 5130 22400 62600 8720 43200 20900 20300

Confirmed count forecast Europe (bold red line in graphs) 2020-05-26 to 2020-06-01

DateUKEUATBECZDEDKESFIFRHUIEITNLPLPTROSE
2020-05-25 261184 1126225 16539 57342 9002 180600 11387 235400 6599 180166 3756 24698 230158 45445 21631 30788 18283 33843
2020-05-26 263000 1129000 16600 57600 9060 181000 11400 236000 6620 180000 3780 24800 231000 45600 22000 31000 18400 34200
2020-05-27 265000 1132000 16600 57900 9110 182000 11500 237000 6650 181000 3800 24800 231000 45800 22300 31200 18600 34600
2020-05-28 267000 1135000 16700 58100 9160 182000 11500 237000 6670 181000 3830 24900 232000 46000 22600 31300 18700 34900
2020-05-29 269000 1137000 16700 58400 9210 183000 11600 237000 6700 181000 3850 25000 232000 46200 23000 31500 18900 35300
2020-05-30 271000 1139000 16700 58600 9270 183000 11600 238000 6720 181000 3880 25100 233000 46300 23300 31700 19000 35700
2020-05-31 273000 1141000 16800 58900 9320 183000 11700 238000 6740 181000 3900 25100 233000 46500 23700 31900 19200 36100
2020-06-01 275000 1143000 16800 59100 9370 184000 11700 239000 6770 181000 3920 25200 234000 46700 24000 32000 19400 36400

Confirmed count forecast (bold red line in graphs) 2020-05-26 to 2020-06-01

DateBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-IAUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-RIUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WI
2020-05-25 374898 87119 73997 21981 144950 22750 137724 71105 123979 14319 353427 23615 157814 1662302 14986 5870 16575 96400 24256 40649 8225 8910 51661 39120 17551 111743 31715 9125 8542 37732 92921 47152 2074 51378 21293 11426 13458 24057 2457 12173 4185 154866 6837 7956 362764 32477 6090 3949 71925 12547 10178 4586 20121 56409 7752 37727 20003 15584
2020-05-26 390000 88100 79000 22900 153000 23700 140000 74500 127000 14500 362000 24800 159000 1681000 15600 6170 16900 98000 24500 41000 8350 9010 52300 39700 17900 114000 32100 9220 8590 38100 93700 48100 2100 51700 22200 11600 13700 24700 2510 12400 4230 156000 6930 8070 364000 33000 6160 3980 72500 12700 10300 4660 20400 57200 7880 38400 20100 16200
2020-05-27 406000 89100 84000 24000 163000 24600 141000 78100 131000 14700 370000 26100 160000 1699000 16200 6420 17200 100000 24700 41300 8470 9140 53000 40400 18200 116000 32500 9320 8630 38500 94400 49000 2130 52000 23200 11700 14000 25400 2560 12600 4270 156000 7030 8190 366000 33500 6220 4010 73000 12900 10500 4730 20800 58000 8000 39300 20300 16800
2020-05-28 421000 90000 90000 25100 172000 25600 143000 81800 135000 14900 378000 27400 161000 1717000 16800 6690 17500 102000 24900 41600 8590 9280 53700 41000 18500 117000 32900 9420 8670 38900 95100 49900 2150 52300 24200 11900 14200 26100 2610 12800 4320 157000 7140 8320 367000 34000 6290 4040 73500 13000 10600 4800 21100 58800 8130 40200 20500 17400
2020-05-29 438000 91000 96000 26200 183000 26600 145000 85700 138000 15100 386000 28900 162000 1734000 17400 6960 17800 104000 25100 42000 8710 9410 54400 41600 18900 119000 33300 9510 8700 39300 95800 50800 2180 52600 25300 12000 14400 26800 2660 13000 4370 158000 7250 8440 369000 34600 6350 4060 74000 13100 10800 4870 21500 59600 8250 41100 20700 18000
2020-05-30 455000 92000 102000 27400 194000 27600 147000 89800 142000 15300 395000 30300 163000 1751000 18100 7250 18200 106000 25400 42300 8830 9540 55100 42200 19200 121000 33700 9610 8740 39800 96500 51800 2210 52900 26400 12200 14700 27600 2710 13200 4420 159000 7350 8570 370000 35100 6420 4090 74500 13300 11000 4940 21900 60400 8380 42100 20900 18700
2020-05-31 472000 93000 109000 28600 205000 28700 149000 94100 146000 15600 403000 31900 164000 1768000 18800 7550 18500 108000 25600 42700 8960 9680 55900 42900 19500 123000 34100 9710 8770 40200 97300 52700 2240 53200 27500 12300 15000 28300 2760 13400 4470 159000 7460 8690 371000 35600 6490 4120 75000 13400 11100 5010 22200 61200 8510 43000 21100 19400
2020-06-01 490000 93900 116000 29900 218000 29800 151000 98600 150000 15800 412000 33500 165000 1784000 19500 7860 18900 110000 25800 43000 9080 9820 56600 43500 19900 125000 34500 9810 8810 40600 98000 53700 2260 53500 28800 12500 15200 29100 2820 13600 4510 160000 7570 8820 373000 36200 6560 4150 75500 13600 11300 5080 22600 62000 8640 44000 21300 20100

Confirmed count scenario forecast (bold purple line in graphs) 2020-05-26 to 2020-06-03

DateUKEUATBECZDEDKESFIFRHUIEITNLPLPTROSEBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-IAUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-RIUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WI
2020-05-25 261184 1126225 16539 57342 9002 180600 11387 235400 6599 180166 3756 24698 230158 45445 21631 30788 18283 33843 374898 87119 73997 21981 144950 22750 137724 71105 123979 14319 353427 23615 157814 1662302 14986 5870 16575 96400 24256 40649 8225 8910 51661 39120 17551 111743 31715 9125 8542 37732 92921 47152 2074 51378 21293 11426 13458 24057 2457 12173 4185 154866 6837 7956 362764 32477 6090 3949 71925 12547 10178 4586 20121 56409 7752 37727 20003 15584
2020-05-26 263000 1130000 16600 57600 9050 181000 11400 237000 6630 180000 3780 24800 231000 45500 22000 31000 18400 34200 385000 87900 77100 22700 150000 23500 140000 74000 126000 14400 361000 24300 158000 1675000 15300 6080 16800 98000 24500 40800 8320 8960 52100 39600 17800 113000 32100 9230 8630 37900 93600 47900 2120 51700 21800 11400 13700 24600 2530 12300 4240 156000 6910 8020 364000 32900 6170 3980 72600 12800 10400 4660 20400 57300 7900 38100 20000 16100
2020-05-27 264000 1133000 16600 57800 9080 182000 11500 237000 6650 181000 3800 24800 231000 45700 22300 31100 18500 34500 397000 88800 80100 23500 155000 24000 141000 76500 129000 14600 368000 25100 159000 1688000 15500 6250 17000 100000 24700 41000 8410 9050 52700 40100 18100 115000 32400 9320 8680 38200 94100 48400 2160 51900 22300 11500 13900 25000 2580 12500 4290 156000 6990 8100 365000 33300 6230 4000 73300 13000 10500 4710 20700 58200 7980 38700 20100 16400
2020-05-28 266000 1136000 16600 58000 9110 182000 11500 238000 6670 181000 3820 24900 232000 45800 22700 31300 18600 34800 406000 89600 82100 24000 160000 24500 143000 78900 132000 14700 374000 25700 159000 1701000 15700 6380 17300 101000 24900 41100 8500 9130 53300 40600 18300 117000 32700 9400 8710 38400 94600 49200 2190 52100 22800 11600 14000 25500 2620 12600 4330 157000 7050 8170 366000 33700 6300 4020 73800 13100 10700 4780 21000 59000 8060 39200 20200 16700
2020-05-29 267000 1138000 16600 58200 9140 182000 11600 239000 6690 181000 3840 24900 232000 45900 22900 31400 18700 35100 419000 90300 84500 24900 165000 25200 144000 81300 134000 14700 381000 26600 160000 1714000 15900 6490 17500 103000 25100 41300 8570 9210 53700 41000 18500 118000 33000 9480 8750 38500 95000 49600 2220 52300 23300 11700 14200 26000 2670 12700 4370 157000 7120 8250 367000 34100 6370 4050 74200 13200 10800 4830 21200 59600 8160 39700 20300 17100
2020-05-30 268000 1140000 16600 58400 9160 182000 11600 239000 6700 181000 3850 24900 232000 46000 23100 31500 18800 35300 427000 91000 86800 25300 169000 25400 146000 83200 136000 14800 387000 27200 160000 1723000 16000 6640 17600 104000 25200 41400 8650 9270 54200 41500 18700 119000 33200 9550 8800 38700 95400 50000 2230 52500 23700 11700 14300 26200 2690 12800 4410 157000 7170 8320 368000 34400 6450 4070 74600 13300 10800 4880 21400 60200 8160 40000 20400 17100
2020-05-31 269000 1142000 16600 58500 9180 183000 11700 240000 6710 181000 3860 25000 233000 46100 23200 31600 18900 35600 436000 91600 89900 26000 173000 25700 147000 85000 139000 14900 393000 27900 161000 1730000 16100 6790 17900 105000 25300 41500 8710 9320 54500 41800 18800 120000 33400 9610 8840 38800 95700 50500 2250 52700 24100 11800 14400 26400 2730 12900 4440 158000 7210 8390 369000 34600 6510 4100 75000 13400 10900 4920 21600 60900 8200 40400 20400 17300
2020-06-01 271000 1144000 16600 58600 9210 183000 11700 240000 6730 181000 3870 25000 233000 46200 23400 31700 18900 35700 451000 92200 91800 26600 177000 26100 148000 87200 141000 15000 399000 28900 161000 1737000 16200 6920 18100 106000 25400 41600 8750 9370 54600 42100 19000 121000 33600 9660 8870 38900 96100 51000 2270 52900 24500 11800 14400 26700 2760 13000 4470 158000 7250 8460 369000 34900 6580 4110 75300 13400 10900 4960 21800 61600 8230 40900 20400 17400
2020-06-02 272000 1145000 16600 58800 9220 183000 11700 241000 6750 182000 3870 25000 233000 46300 23700 31800 19000 35900 463000 92700 94200 27200 182000 26200 149000 89400 143000 15000 404000 29700 162000 1744000 16300 7010 18300 107000 25500 41700 8810 9420 54900 42400 19100 122000 33700 9700 8910 38900 96400 51400 2290 53000 24900 11800 14500 27000 2810 13100 4490 158000 7290 8510 370000 35100 6620 4130 75400 13500 11100 4990 21900 62100 8270 41300 20400 17600
2020-06-03 273000 1147000 16600 58900 9230 183000 11700 241000 6750 182000 3880 25100 233000 46400 23800 31800 19100 36100 475000 93200 97200 27600 186000 26500 149000 91300 144000 15100 409000 30400 162000 1749000 16500 7120 18500 108000 25600 41900 8850 9460 55500 42600 19200 123000 33900 9740 8950 39100 96700 51700 2310 53200 25400 11900 14700 27200 2850 13200 4520 158000 7330 8550 370000 35300 6660 4150 75500 13500 11200 5000 22000 62600 8310 41700 20400 17800

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in Europe 2020-05-25

UKEUATBECZDEDKESFIFRHUIEITNLPLPTROSE
Peak date04-1003-2803-2604-1003-2703-2904-0603-2704-0604-1204-1004-1303-2104-10 --04-1004-1104-24
Peak daily increment 5829 29654 870 1477 287 5942 331 8161 176 10377 124 970 5748 1186 871 378 656
Days from 100 to peak 36 34 18 34 14 28 27 25 24 42 20 30 27 35 28 28 48
Days from peak/2 to peak 22 18 13 26 13 16 27 14 24 27 22 24 17 29 23 25 45
Days since peak 45 58 60 45 59 57 49 59 49 43 45 42 65 45 45 44 31

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed 2020-05-25

BrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-IAUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-RIUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WI
Peak date05-2204-22 -- -- -- --03-31 --05-1903-3105-09 --04-1204-09 -- --05-14 --04-2404-2005-0104-2604-0204-1705-0205-0304-2705-0505-0504-0404-2405-19 --04-04 --04-10 --05-2205-2105-0105-0104-0705-0204-0304-0904-1904-0405-0904-0805-1104-0305-0805-0105-1305-03 --03-28 --
Peak daily increment 17762 1877 3115 4117 351 11157 4676 31917 422 623 1184 203 249 1281 898 588 2721 722 297 261 1768 3011 1197 1600 259 780 86 447 102 4517 174 167 10028 1147 129 80 1723 649 200 171 611 1338 151 455
Days from 100 to peak 69 42 35 63 17 53 24 37 54 40 32 40 32 17 32 40 48 37 42 42 19 42 61 17 19 64 52 33 37 23 38 14 31 31 11 50 22 47 14 38 44 57 43 21
Days from peak/2 to peak 49 33 28 44 14 33 18 20 52 35 27 40 31 12 27 34 40 33 40 41 12 30 53 13 18 59 57 29 41 15 39 15 20 25 13 54 15 40 14 39 40 51 44 17
Days since peak 3 33 55 6 55 16 43 46 11 31 35 24 29 53 38 23 22 28 20 20 51 31 6 51 45 3 4 24 24 48 23 52 46 36 51 16 47 14 52 17 24 12 22 58

Initial visual evaluation of forecasts of Confirmed