COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2020-05-30


Disclaimer

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. The documentation that is provided is still in progress and not peer reviewed. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.

Recent changes

[2020-03-24] Our forecasts are starting to overestimate in some cases. This was always expected to happen when the increase starts to slow down. Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, but only for Italy and Spain sofar.
[2020-03-26] Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, only for Italy.
[2020-03-31] Scenario forecasts, based on what happened in China earlier this year, are presented for several countries (line marked with x). Created more plausible 90% confidence bands (dotted line in same colour).
[2020-04-02] Now including more US States, based on New York Times data. And the world.
[2020-04-06] Added a post hoc estimate of the peak number of cases. This needs at least three confirmed observations (four for deaths) after the event. It is based on the averaged smooth trend, and can change later or be a local peak. It is marked with a vertical line with the date label, or a date with left arrow in the bottom left corner of the graph. This is backported to 2020-04-04.
[2020-04-08] Minor correction to peak estimates. Added table with scenario forecasts.
[2020-04-09] Added table with estimated peak dates (if happened) and dates to and since the peak. Note that this can be a local peak, and subsequent re-acceleration (or data revisions) can result in a new peak later.
[2020-04-10] Updated documentation with better description of short-term estimates and peak determination.
[2020-04-16] Added scenario forecasts to all graphs now. This would now be the preferred forecast for most.
This is the first time with a peak in confirmed UK cases (also for deaths, but this is uncertain because it is at the same date).
[2020-04-17] Bird and Nielsen look into nowcasting death counts in England.
[2020-04-24] A summary of our work on short-term COVID-19 forecasting appeared as a voxeu.
[2020-04-27] Our short-term COVID-19 forecasting paper is now available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06.
A small adjustment has been made to the scenario forecast methodology, and will be documented shortly.
[2020-04-29] See our blog entry at the International Institute of Forecasters.
US history of death counts revised in Johns Hopkins/CSSE data.
UK death counts have been revised to include the deaths in care homes. In the Johns Hopkins/CSSE data set, which we use, the entire history has been revised. So forecasts made up to 2020-04-29 cannot be compared to later outcomes. In the ECDC data set only the last observation has changed, causing a jump in the series.
[2020-05-06] The New York Times is in the process of redefining its US state data. Unfortunately, at the moment only the last observation has changed (e.g New York deaths jumped from 19645 on 2020-05-05 to 25956 a day later). This means the data is currently useless; however it does bring it close to the Johns Hopkins/CSSE count (25626 on 2020-05-06). The aggregate US count is based on JH/CSSE so unaffected. We now use Johns Hopkins/CSSE US state data, including all states with sufficient counts. So the new forecasts cannot be compared to those previously.
A minor change is that we show the graph without scenario forecast if no peak has been detected yet.
[2020-05-13] We now omit countries with fewer than 200 confirmed cases in the last week (25 for deaths).
The short-term paper has some small updates, including further comparisons with other models.
Data for Ecuador are not reliable enough for forecasting.
Switched to an improved version of scenario forecasting.
[2020-05-18] Minor fixes to the improved version of scenario forecasting, backported to 2020-05-13.
[2020-05-20] Problem with UK confirmed cases: negative daily count. This makes the forecasts temporarily unreliable.
Updated the second paper.

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Confirmed count average forecast Europe (bold black line in graphs) 2020-05-31 to 2020-06-06

DateUKEUBECZDEDKESFIFRIEITNLPLPTROSE
2020-05-30 272826 1151162 58186 9230 183189 11633 239228 6826 185616 24929 232664 46257 23571 32203 19133 37113
2020-05-31 275000 1154000 58400 9280 184000 11700 240000 6850 186000 25000 233000 46400 23800 32400 19300 38000
2020-06-01 277000 1157000 58600 9320 184000 11700 240000 6890 187000 25000 234000 46600 24200 32600 19400 39200
2020-06-02 279000 1160000 58700 9370 185000 11800 241000 6930 187000 25100 234000 46800 24500 32800 19600 40300
2020-06-03 281000 1162000 58900 9410 185000 11800 241000 6960 188000 25100 235000 46900 24900 33100 19800 41500
2020-06-04 283000 1165000 59100 9460 186000 11900 242000 7000 188000 25200 235000 47100 25200 33300 19900 42800
2020-06-05 285000 1167000 59300 9510 186000 11900 243000 7040 188000 25200 236000 47300 25600 33500 20100 44100
2020-06-06 287000 1169000 59500 9560 187000 12000 243000 7070 189000 25300 236000 47400 25900 33800 20300 45400

Confirmed count average forecast (bold black line in graphs) 2020-05-31 to 2020-06-06

DateBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-IAUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-NCUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-RIUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WI
2020-05-30 498440 91681 94858 26734 181827 25773 148950 87512 155671 17224 396575 30967 163103 1770165 17359 6817 19258 109895 26084 41793 8717 9370 55340 43134 19238 118719 34211 9690 9698 39493 95926 52015 2278 52849 24104 12149 15229 27794 13688 4486 159214 7401 8517 369660 35033 6418 4185 75697 13071 11394 4960 22056 62675 8545 43611 21288 18230
2020-05-31 522000 92500 99000 27200 191000 26100 150000 90000 161000 17600 403000 32200 164000 1780000 17800 6990 19800 114000 26200 42000 8740 9390 55500 43700 19600 120000 34400 9700 9700 39700 96300 52300 2290 53000 24500 12300 15700 28700 13900 4520 160000 7470 8560 371000 35300 6460 4200 76200 13200 11700 4980 22300 63000 8700 45100 21400 18900
2020-06-01 553000 93400 103000 27900 202000 26700 152000 93000 168000 18300 411000 33900 165000 1797000 18200 7230 20600 118000 26300 42200 8810 9460 55900 44400 19900 121000 34700 9800 9800 39900 96900 52900 2320 53300 25000 12400 16200 29800 14100 4570 160000 7570 8650 372000 35700 6530 4230 76800 13300 12100 5040 22600 63800 9000 46800 21600 19600
2020-06-02 586000 94300 108000 28700 213000 27200 154000 96000 176000 19000 419000 35800 166000 1813000 18600 7480 21300 123000 26600 42500 8890 9550 56300 45100 20300 122000 35000 9900 9900 40200 97500 53600 2350 53600 25600 12500 16700 30900 14400 4630 161000 7670 8750 373000 36200 6590 4270 77500 13400 12400 5100 23000 64800 9200 48600 21900 20300
2020-06-03 621000 95100 113000 29400 225000 27800 156000 100000 185000 19800 427000 37700 167000 1830000 19100 7740 22100 127000 26800 42700 8970 9630 56900 45800 20700 123000 35400 10000 10100 40500 98100 54300 2380 53900 26100 12700 17200 32000 14700 4680 162000 7780 8850 375000 36700 6650 4310 78100 13500 12800 5160 23400 65800 9400 50400 22100 21100
2020-06-04 658000 96000 118000 30300 237000 28400 158000 103000 194000 20600 436000 39800 168000 1846000 19600 8000 22900 132000 27100 42900 9050 9720 57500 46500 21100 124000 35900 10100 10200 40800 98700 55100 2420 54100 26700 12800 17800 33200 14900 4740 163000 7890 8950 376000 37100 6710 4340 78700 13600 13200 5230 23700 66800 9700 52400 22300 21900
2020-06-05 697000 96900 124000 31200 250000 29000 160000 107000 203000 21500 444000 42000 169000 1862000 20000 8280 23800 138000 27400 43200 9130 9810 58200 47300 21500 126000 36300 10200 10400 41100 99300 56000 2450 54400 27300 13000 18400 34500 15200 4790 163000 7990 9050 378000 37600 6770 4380 79400 13700 13600 5290 24100 67900 10000 54400 22600 22700
2020-06-06 738000 97700 130000 32200 264000 29600 162000 111000 213000 22300 453000 44300 170000 1878000 20500 8570 24700 143000 27600 43400 9220 9900 58800 48100 22000 127000 36700 10300 10500 41400 99900 56800 2490 54700 27900 13100 19000 35800 15500 4850 164000 8110 9160 379000 38100 6840 4420 80100 13800 14000 5360 24500 68900 10200 56500 22800 23500

Confirmed count forecast Europe (bold red line in graphs) 2020-05-31 to 2020-06-06

DateUKEUBECZDEDKESFIFRIEITNLPLPTROSE
2020-05-30 272826 1151162 58186 9230 183189 11633 239228 6826 185616 24929 232664 46257 23571 32203 19133 37113
2020-05-31 275000 1156000 58400 9280 184000 11700 240000 6870 186000 25000 233000 46400 23900 32500 19300 38200
2020-06-01 277000 1160000 58500 9320 184000 11700 241000 6910 187000 25000 234000 46600 24200 32700 19500 39300
2020-06-02 279000 1164000 58700 9360 185000 11800 241000 6950 188000 25100 234000 46700 24600 33000 19600 40400
2020-06-03 281000 1167000 58900 9400 185000 11800 242000 6980 188000 25100 234000 46900 24900 33200 19800 41600
2020-06-04 282000 1171000 59000 9450 186000 11900 243000 7020 189000 25200 235000 47000 25300 33500 19900 42900
2020-06-05 284000 1174000 59200 9490 186000 11900 243000 7060 189000 25200 235000 47200 25600 33700 20100 44200
2020-06-06 286000 1176000 59400 9530 187000 12000 244000 7100 190000 25300 236000 47400 26000 34000 20300 45500

Confirmed count forecast (bold red line in graphs) 2020-05-31 to 2020-06-06

DateBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-IAUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-NCUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-RIUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WI
2020-05-30 498440 91681 94858 26734 181827 25773 148950 87512 155671 17224 396575 30967 163103 1770165 17359 6817 19258 109895 26084 41793 8717 9370 55340 43134 19238 118719 34211 9690 9698 39493 95926 52015 2278 52849 24104 12149 15229 27794 13688 4486 159214 7401 8517 369660 35033 6418 4185 75697 13071 11394 4960 22056 62675 8545 43611 21288 18230
2020-05-31 529000 92500 98000 27500 191000 26300 151000 90000 161000 17900 404000 32500 164000 1791000 17800 7170 20100 114000 26400 42000 8800 9500 55900 43500 19500 120000 34700 9800 9800 39800 97000 52900 2320 53100 24600 12300 15700 28800 14000 4550 160000 7490 8620 371000 35500 6470 4220 76300 13200 11700 5010 22400 63600 8800 45200 21500 18900
2020-06-01 560000 93300 102000 28400 201000 26800 153000 93000 170000 18600 412000 34300 165000 1810000 18200 7490 20900 118000 26700 42200 8910 9600 56600 43900 19900 121000 35100 9900 10000 40100 97000 53800 2360 53400 25100 12500 16200 29900 14200 4590 161000 7600 8730 373000 35900 6530 4260 77000 13300 12100 5080 22800 64800 9100 46900 21800 19700
2020-06-02 593000 94100 106000 29400 211000 27400 155000 96000 179000 19300 420000 36200 166000 1828000 18600 7830 21800 122000 27100 42400 9010 9700 57300 44300 20300 122000 35600 10000 10200 40500 98000 54700 2390 53700 25600 12600 16800 31100 14500 4640 162000 7700 8840 374000 36400 6590 4300 77600 13400 12500 5150 23100 65900 9400 48600 22000 20400
2020-06-03 627000 94900 110000 30300 222000 27900 157000 99000 188000 20100 428000 38200 167000 1846000 19000 8170 22700 127000 27400 42700 9110 9800 58000 44700 20700 124000 36000 10100 10400 40900 98000 55500 2430 53900 26200 12800 17300 32200 14800 4690 162000 7810 8950 375000 36800 6650 4340 78200 13400 12900 5210 23500 67100 9700 50500 22300 21200
2020-06-04 664000 95600 115000 31300 234000 28400 159000 102000 198000 20900 436000 40200 168000 1863000 19400 8540 23600 132000 27700 42900 9210 9900 58700 45100 21100 125000 36500 10200 10600 41300 99000 56400 2470 54200 26700 12900 17900 33500 15000 4740 163000 7910 9070 377000 37300 6710 4380 78900 13500 13300 5280 23900 68300 10100 52400 22500 22000
2020-06-05 703000 96400 119000 32400 246000 29000 162000 106000 208000 21700 444000 42400 169000 1880000 19800 8920 24600 137000 28000 43100 9310 10000 59400 45500 21600 126000 36900 10300 10800 41600 100000 57400 2510 54400 27200 13100 18500 34800 15300 4790 164000 8020 9180 378000 37700 6770 4420 79500 13600 13700 5350 24300 69500 10400 54300 22800 22900
2020-06-06 744000 97200 124000 33400 259000 29600 164000 109000 219000 22600 453000 44800 170000 1897000 20300 9320 25700 142000 28400 43300 9420 10100 60100 45900 22000 127000 37400 10400 11000 42000 100000 58300 2550 54700 27800 13200 19100 36100 15600 4840 165000 8130 9290 380000 38200 6840 4470 80200 13700 14100 5420 24700 70800 10800 56400 23100 23700

Confirmed count scenario forecast (bold purple line in graphs) 2020-05-31 to 2020-06-08

DateUKEUBECZDEDKESFIFRIEITNLPLPTROSEBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-IAUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-NCUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-RIUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WI
2020-05-30 272826 1151162 58186 9230 183189 11633 239228 6826 185616 24929 232664 46257 23571 32203 19133 37113 498440 91681 94858 26734 181827 25773 148950 87512 155671 17224 396575 30967 163103 1770165 17359 6817 19258 109895 26084 41793 8717 9370 55340 43134 19238 118719 34211 9690 9698 39493 95926 52015 2278 52849 24104 12149 15229 27794 13688 4486 159214 7401 8517 369660 35033 6418 4185 75697 13071 11394 4960 22056 62675 8545 43611 21288 18230
2020-05-31 275000 1154000 58400 9260 184000 11700 240000 6850 186000 25000 233000 46400 23800 32300 19300 37700 514000 92300 98000 27100 189000 26300 150000 91000 157000 17700 403000 32100 164000 1782000 17800 7030 19600 112000 26100 42000 8740 9380 55600 43800 19400 120000 34400 9800 9800 39500 96300 52700 2290 53100 24600 12300 15500 28500 13900 4540 160000 7460 8580 371000 35300 6430 4210 76100 13100 11600 4990 22300 63400 8670 44700 21500 18800
2020-06-01 277000 1157000 58500 9290 184000 11700 240000 6890 186000 25000 234000 46600 24000 32500 19400 38200 536000 93000 102000 27800 197000 26900 151000 94000 161000 18500 410000 33500 165000 1802000 18200 7290 20100 114000 26300 42100 8790 9440 56200 44300 19700 121000 34700 9800 9900 39700 96700 53700 2330 53300 25100 12400 15800 29300 14100 4590 160000 7550 8670 372000 35600 6460 4240 76700 13100 11800 5030 22600 64300 8830 45800 21700 19300
2020-06-02 279000 1160000 58600 9310 184000 11700 241000 6930 186000 25100 234000 46700 24200 32700 19600 38700 558000 93500 105000 28400 205000 27500 152000 97000 164000 19100 416000 34700 166000 1821000 18500 7530 20400 115000 26500 42300 8840 9490 56600 44700 19900 121000 35000 9900 10100 39900 97100 54600 2360 53500 25500 12500 16000 30000 14300 4630 161000 7630 8760 373000 35900 6470 4280 77200 13200 11900 5080 22800 64900 8990 46600 21900 19700
2020-06-03 280000 1163000 58700 9340 184000 11700 241000 6950 186000 25100 234000 46800 24600 32900 19700 39200 576000 94000 108000 29000 212000 28300 153000 100000 168000 19700 421000 35700 167000 1840000 18900 7780 20900 118000 26700 42400 8860 9520 57000 45000 20100 122000 35200 9900 10200 40000 97300 55500 2400 53600 26000 12600 16200 30700 14400 4670 162000 7690 8830 374000 36100 6480 4310 77800 13200 12100 5110 23100 65600 9200 47200 22100 20200
2020-06-04 281000 1164000 58900 9360 184000 11800 241000 6980 186000 25100 234000 46900 24800 33100 19800 39700 599000 94400 112000 29600 219000 28900 155000 104000 171000 20300 427000 37100 167000 1854000 19400 7910 21500 120000 26800 42600 8890 9560 57300 45300 20300 123000 35400 10000 10300 40100 97600 56500 2440 53800 26400 12600 16400 31500 14600 4690 162000 7740 8900 375000 36300 6490 4330 78400 13200 12300 5150 23200 66200 9340 48000 22300 20700
2020-06-05 282000 1166000 58900 9370 185000 11800 241000 7010 187000 25200 234000 47000 25200 33200 19800 40200 612000 94800 115000 30100 226000 29400 155000 106000 173000 20700 432000 38100 168000 1872000 19800 8060 21600 121000 26900 42700 8920 9580 57800 45600 20400 124000 35600 10000 10400 40100 97900 57500 2490 53900 26900 12700 16600 32200 14700 4720 162000 7800 8990 375000 36500 6490 4360 78800 13300 12500 5180 23400 66700 9470 48700 22400 21200
2020-06-06 283000 1167000 59000 9380 185000 11800 242000 7030 187000 25200 234000 47000 25400 33400 19900 40700 630000 95200 119000 30600 232000 30200 156000 109000 176000 21200 436000 38900 169000 1884000 20200 8210 22000 123000 27000 42800 8950 9630 58100 45700 20600 124000 35800 10100 10500 40100 98100 58200 2540 54000 27500 12700 16800 32800 14800 4740 163000 7850 9040 376000 36700 6490 4380 79300 13300 12600 5190 23600 67300 9640 49600 22600 21600
2020-06-07 284000 1168000 59100 9380 185000 11800 242000 7050 187000 25200 234000 47100 25700 33400 20000 41100 649000 95400 123000 31400 240000 30800 156000 113000 177000 22300 440000 40100 169000 1897000 20900 8320 22200 125000 27100 43000 8980 9650 58200 46000 20600 125000 35900 10100 10500 40200 98400 59000 2580 54100 27800 12800 16900 33700 14900 4760 163000 7880 9080 376000 36800 6490 4390 79700 13400 12800 5210 23700 67700 9750 50900 22700 21900
2020-06-08 284000 1168000 59100 9380 185000 11800 242000 7070 187000 25200 234000 47100 26000 33500 20000 41500 664000 95700 126000 32000 246000 31100 156000 115000 179000 22900 444000 41000 169000 1908000 21400 8450 22600 127000 27200 43100 9010 9690 58400 46000 20800 125000 36000 10100 10600 40200 98600 59700 2620 54200 28200 12800 17000 34300 15000 4780 164000 7920 9120 377000 36900 6490 4410 80200 13400 12900 5230 23800 68200 9870 52000 22700 22200

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in Europe 2020-05-30

UKEUBECZDEDKESFIFRIEITNLPLPTROSE
Peak date04-1003-2804-1003-2703-2904-0603-2704-0604-1204-1303-2104-1005-2004-1004-11 --
Peak daily increment 5828 29655 1477 287 5942 331 8161 176 10380 970 5747 1186 404 871 378
Days from 100 to peak 36 34 34 14 28 27 25 24 42 30 27 35 66 28 28
Days from peak/2 to peak 22 18 26 13 16 27 14 24 27 24 17 29 64 23 25
Days since peak 50 63 50 64 62 54 64 54 48 47 70 50 10 50 49

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed 2020-05-30

BrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-IAUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-NCUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-RIUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WI
Peak date --04-2205-25 -- --05-2103-31 -- -- --05-09 --04-1204-0905-26 -- -- --04-2404-2005-0104-2604-0204-1705-0205-0304-2705-0505-0504-0404-2405-1905-2204-0405-2304-10 -- --05-0105-0104-0705-0204-0404-0904-1904-0405-0904-0805-11 --05-0805-0105-15 -- --03-28 --
Peak daily increment 1877 4458 724 3116 11147 4676 31918 514 623 1184 203 249 1281 898 588 2721 722 297 261 1768 3011 1187 58 1600 731 259 447 102 4517 174 175 10028 1147 129 80 1723 635 171 611 1292 455
Days from 100 to peak 42 70 67 35 53 24 37 67 40 32 40 32 17 32 40 48 37 42 42 19 42 61 60 17 64 19 33 37 23 38 15 31 31 11 50 22 47 38 44 59 21
Days from peak/2 to peak 33 56 61 28 33 18 20 63 35 27 40 31 12 27 34 40 33 40 41 12 30 53 65 13 57 18 29 41 15 39 15 20 25 13 54 15 40 39 40 53 17
Days since peak 38 5 9 60 21 48 51 4 36 40 29 34 58 43 28 27 33 25 25 56 36 11 8 56 7 50 29 29 53 28 56 51 41 56 21 52 19 22 29 15 63

Initial visual evaluation of forecasts of Confirmed