COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2020-06-04


Disclaimer

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. The documentation that is provided is still in progress and not peer reviewed. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.

Recent changes

[2020-03-24] Our forecasts are starting to overestimate in some cases. This was always expected to happen when the increase starts to slow down. Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, but only for Italy and Spain sofar.
[2020-03-26] Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, only for Italy.
[2020-03-31] Scenario forecasts, based on what happened in China earlier this year, are presented for several countries (line marked with x). Created more plausible 90% confidence bands (dotted line in same colour).
[2020-04-02] Now including more US States, based on New York Times data. And the world.
[2020-04-06] Added a post hoc estimate of the peak number of cases. This needs at least three confirmed observations (four for deaths) after the event. It is based on the averaged smooth trend, and can change later or be a local peak. It is marked with a vertical line with the date label, or a date with left arrow in the bottom left corner of the graph. This is backported to 2020-04-04.
[2020-04-08] Minor correction to peak estimates. Added table with scenario forecasts.
[2020-04-09] Added table with estimated peak dates (if happened) and dates to and since the peak. Note that this can be a local peak, and subsequent re-acceleration (or data revisions) can result in a new peak later.
[2020-04-10] Updated documentation with better description of short-term estimates and peak determination.
[2020-04-16] Added scenario forecasts to all graphs now. This would now be the preferred forecast for most.
This is the first time with a peak in confirmed UK cases (also for deaths, but this is uncertain because it is at the same date).
[2020-04-17] Bird and Nielsen look into nowcasting death counts in England.
[2020-04-24] A summary of our work on short-term COVID-19 forecasting appeared as a voxeu.
[2020-04-27] Our short-term COVID-19 forecasting paper is now available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06.
A small adjustment has been made to the scenario forecast methodology, and will be documented shortly.
[2020-04-29] See our blog entry at the International Institute of Forecasters.
US history of death counts revised in Johns Hopkins/CSSE data.
UK death counts have been revised to include the deaths in care homes. In the Johns Hopkins/CSSE data set, which we use, the entire history has been revised. So forecasts made up to 2020-04-29 cannot be compared to later outcomes. In the ECDC data set only the last observation has changed, causing a jump in the series.
[2020-05-06] The New York Times is in the process of redefining its US state data. Unfortunately, at the moment only the last observation has changed (e.g New York deaths jumped from 19645 on 2020-05-05 to 25956 a day later). This means the data is currently useless; however it does bring it close to the Johns Hopkins/CSSE count (25626 on 2020-05-06). The aggregate US count is based on JH/CSSE so unaffected. We now use Johns Hopkins/CSSE US state data, including all states with sufficient counts. So the new forecasts cannot be compared to those previously.
A minor change is that we show the graph without scenario forecast if no peak has been detected yet.
[2020-05-13] We now omit countries with fewer than 200 confirmed cases in the last week (25 for deaths).
The short-term paper has some small updates, including further comparisons with other models.
Data for Ecuador are not reliable enough for forecasting.
Switched to an improved version of scenario forecasting.
[2020-05-18] Minor fixes to the improved version of scenario forecasting, backported to 2020-05-13.
[2020-05-20] Problem with UK confirmed cases: negative daily count. This makes the forecasts temporarily unreliable.
Updated the second paper.
[2020-06-04] Data issues with confirmed cases for France.
Added an appendix to the short term paper with further forecast comparisons for European and Latin American countries.
Both Sweden and Iran have lost their peak in confirmed cases. For Sweden the previous peak was on 24 April (daily peak of 656 cases), for Iran it was on 31 March (peak of 3116). For Iran this looks like a second wave, with increasing daily counts for the last four weeks. For Sweden this is a sudden jump in confirmed cases in the last two days, compared to a fairly steady weekly pattern over the previous six weeks.

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Confirmed count average forecast Europe (bold black line in graphs) 2020-06-05 to 2020-06-11

DateUKEUBECZDEDKESFRIEITNLPLPTROSE
2020-06-04 281661 1166440 58767 9494 184472 11811 240660 185986 25142 234013 46942 25048 33592 19907 41883
2020-06-05 283000 1169000 58900 9520 185000 11800 241000 186000 25200 234000 47100 25300 33700 20000 42700
2020-06-06 285000 1171000 59000 9550 185000 11900 241000 187000 25200 235000 47200 25600 33900 20100 44000
2020-06-07 286000 1174000 59100 9600 185000 11900 242000 187000 25300 235000 47300 25800 34100 20200 45600
2020-06-08 288000 1176000 59300 9640 186000 12000 242000 187000 25300 235000 47500 26100 34400 20400 47200
2020-06-09 290000 1178000 59400 9690 186000 12000 243000 187000 25400 236000 47600 26400 34600 20500 48900
2020-06-10 291000 1179000 59500 9730 186000 12000 243000 188000 25400 236000 47700 26700 34900 20700 50600
2020-06-11 293000 1180000 59700 9780 187000 12100 244000 188000 25500 237000 47900 27000 35100 20800 52400

Confirmed count average forecast (bold black line in graphs) 2020-06-05 to 2020-06-11

DateBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-NCUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WI
2020-06-04 614941 95269 118292 33466 226713 28818 164270 105680 183198 20382 440538 40792 167410 1872660 18766 8193 22886 122168 27346 42998 9120 9693 60093 46344 20806 2990 124556 36096 10167 10696 41474 101698 55858 2442 54060 26198 13001 16560 32075 14922 4868 162104 7876 9129 375133 37282 6907 4474 78335 12415 5247 24603 70555 9541 47856 22692 19892
2020-06-05 646000 96000 124000 35000 238000 29200 169000 110000 187000 21100 447000 42300 168000 1888000 19000 8400 23700 124000 27500 43200 9160 9700 60300 46400 20900 3010 125000 36300 10300 10800 41700 102000 56500 2470 54300 26600 13100 16800 33200 15100 4910 163000 7960 9170 376000 37600 6940 4500 78800 12500 5270 25200 72700 9800 48300 22900 20000
2020-06-06 681000 97000 130000 36700 251000 29800 174000 115000 192000 22100 455000 44700 169000 1906000 19200 8800 24700 126000 27800 43400 9220 9800 60800 46800 21200 3030 126000 36700 10300 11000 42100 103000 57200 2500 54500 27000 13300 17100 34400 15400 4970 163000 8050 9260 377000 38100 7000 4540 79300 12700 5300 25900 75200 10100 49000 23200 20300
2020-06-07 718000 97000 137000 38500 264000 30300 180000 120000 196000 23000 463000 47100 170000 1924000 19500 9100 25800 129000 28000 43700 9280 9900 61600 47200 21500 3060 127000 37100 10400 11200 42400 104000 58000 2540 54800 27400 13400 17300 35700 15600 5040 164000 8140 9360 379000 38500 7060 4580 79900 12900 5350 26700 77800 10400 49800 23400 20500
2020-06-08 757000 98000 144000 40400 278000 30900 186000 126000 201000 24000 472000 49800 171000 1941000 19700 9500 26900 131000 28300 43900 9350 10000 62400 47700 21900 3090 128000 37400 10500 11400 42800 106000 58800 2570 55000 27800 13600 17600 37000 15900 5100 165000 8230 9470 380000 38900 7140 4630 80400 13100 5400 27600 80500 10700 50500 23700 20800
2020-06-09 798000 99000 151000 42300 293000 31500 192000 132000 207000 25100 480000 52500 172000 1957000 19900 9900 28100 134000 28500 44200 9420 10000 63200 48200 22200 3110 129000 37800 10600 11600 43200 107000 59600 2600 55200 28200 13700 17900 38400 16100 5160 165000 8330 9570 381000 39300 7220 4680 80900 13400 5450 28600 83400 11100 51200 24000 21100
2020-06-10 842000 99000 159000 44400 309000 32100 198000 138000 212000 26200 489000 55400 172000 1974000 20200 10200 29300 136000 28800 44400 9500 10100 64000 48700 22600 3140 130000 38200 10700 11800 43500 108000 60400 2640 55500 28600 13900 18100 39900 16400 5220 166000 8420 9680 382000 39800 7300 4730 81500 13600 5500 29600 86300 11400 52000 24200 21500
2020-06-11 888000 100000 167000 46600 325000 32700 205000 144000 218000 27300 497000 58500 173000 1990000 20500 10700 30500 139000 29000 44700 9570 10200 64900 49300 22900 3170 131000 38600 10800 12000 43900 109000 61200 2670 55700 29100 14000 18400 41400 16700 5290 167000 8520 9790 383000 40200 7380 4780 82000 13800 5560 30600 89300 11800 52800 24500 21800

Confirmed count forecast Europe (bold red line in graphs) 2020-06-05 to 2020-06-11

DateUKEUBECZDEDKESFRIEITNLPLPTROSE
2020-06-04 281661 1166440 58767 9494 184472 11811 240660 185986 25142 234013 46942 25048 33592 19907 41883
2020-06-05 283000 1170000 58900 9540 185000 11900 241000 187000 25200 234000 47100 25300 33900 20100 43500
2020-06-06 285000 1173000 59000 9590 185000 11900 241000 187000 25200 235000 47200 25600 34100 20200 45200
2020-06-07 286000 1175000 59100 9640 185000 11900 242000 187000 25300 235000 47400 25800 34400 20400 47000
2020-06-08 288000 1177000 59200 9690 186000 12000 242000 187000 25300 235000 47500 26100 34700 20500 48800
2020-06-09 290000 1178000 59300 9730 186000 12000 243000 187000 25400 236000 47600 26400 34900 20700 50800
2020-06-10 291000 1179000 59400 9780 186000 12000 243000 187000 25400 236000 47800 26700 35200 20800 52800
2020-06-11 293000 1180000 59500 9830 187000 12100 243000 187000 25500 236000 47900 26900 35500 21000 54900

Confirmed count forecast (bold red line in graphs) 2020-06-05 to 2020-06-11

DateBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-NCUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WI
2020-06-04 614941 95269 118292 33466 226713 28818 164270 105680 183198 20382 440538 40792 167410 1872660 18766 8193 22886 122168 27346 42998 9120 9693 60093 46344 20806 2990 124556 36096 10167 10696 41474 101698 55858 2442 54060 26198 13001 16560 32075 14922 4868 162104 7876 9129 375133 37282 6907 4474 78335 12415 5247 24603 70555 9541 47856 22692 19892
2020-06-05 647000 95900 124000 35500 239000 29400 170000 111000 188000 21100 449000 42800 168000 1892000 19000 8600 23600 125000 27600 43200 9180 9800 60900 46700 21000 3020 126000 36500 10200 10900 41800 102000 56700 2470 54300 26600 13100 16800 33200 15100 4930 163000 7960 9240 376000 37700 7000 4520 78800 12500 5300 25600 73000 9800 48600 22900 20300
2020-06-06 681000 96600 130000 37400 251000 29900 175000 116000 193000 21900 457000 45400 169000 1911000 19200 9000 24500 127000 27800 43400 9250 9800 61800 47300 21300 3060 127000 36900 10300 11100 42200 103000 57500 2490 54500 27000 13300 17000 34400 15400 5000 163000 8040 9350 377000 38100 7090 4580 79300 12700 5350 26500 75700 10100 49400 23200 20600
2020-06-07 717000 97200 136000 39500 265000 30500 181000 122000 197000 22700 464000 48000 170000 1929000 19400 9500 25400 129000 28100 43600 9330 9900 62700 47800 21600 3100 128000 37300 10400 11300 42500 103000 58200 2520 54800 27300 13400 17200 35700 15600 5060 164000 8120 9460 378000 38500 7180 4630 79800 12800 5410 27500 78300 10400 50100 23400 21000
2020-06-08 756000 97800 143000 41700 279000 31000 187000 128000 202000 23500 472000 50800 171000 1947000 19500 9900 26300 132000 28300 43800 9400 9900 63600 48300 21900 3130 129000 37600 10400 11500 42900 104000 59000 2540 55000 27700 13600 17400 37000 15800 5130 164000 8210 9580 380000 38900 7270 4690 80300 12900 5460 28500 81100 10700 50800 23600 21300
2020-06-09 797000 98400 149000 44100 295000 31600 193000 135000 207000 24400 481000 53800 172000 1964000 19700 10400 27300 134000 28600 44000 9480 10000 64600 48900 22200 3170 129000 38000 10500 11700 43200 104000 59800 2570 55200 28100 13700 17700 38300 16100 5190 165000 8290 9690 381000 39300 7370 4750 80800 13100 5520 29600 84100 11100 51600 23900 21700
2020-06-10 840000 99100 157000 46600 311000 32200 200000 141000 212000 25300 489000 56900 173000 1981000 19900 10900 28300 137000 28800 44200 9550 10000 65500 49400 22600 3210 130000 38400 10600 12000 43600 105000 60600 2590 55400 28500 13900 17900 39700 16300 5260 165000 8380 9810 382000 39700 7460 4800 81300 13200 5580 30700 87100 11400 52300 24100 22000
2020-06-11 886000 99700 164000 49200 328000 32800 206000 148000 217000 26200 497000 60300 173000 1998000 20000 11400 29400 139000 29000 44400 9620 10100 66500 50000 22900 3250 131000 38800 10700 12200 44000 105000 61400 2620 55700 28900 14000 18100 41200 16500 5330 166000 8470 9930 383000 40200 7560 4860 81800 13300 5630 31800 90300 11800 53100 24400 22400

Confirmed count scenario forecast (bold purple line in graphs) 2020-06-05 to 2020-06-13

DateUKEUBECZDEDKESFRIEITNLPLPTROSEBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-NCUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WI
2020-06-04 281661 1166440 58767 9494 184472 11811 240660 185986 25142 234013 46942 25048 33592 19907 41883 614941 95269 118292 33466 226713 28818 164270 105680 183198 20382 440538 40792 167410 1872660 18766 8193 22886 122168 27346 42998 9120 9693 60093 46344 20806 2990 124556 36096 10167 10696 41474 101698 55858 2442 54060 26198 13001 16560 32075 14922 4868 162104 7876 9129 375133 37282 6907 4474 78335 12415 5247 24603 70555 9541 47856 22692 19892
2020-06-05 283000 1169000 58900 9520 185000 11800 241000 187000 25200 234000 46900 25200 33800 20000 42600 633000 95800 122000 34700 235000 29200 167000 108000 186000 21100 447000 42000 168000 1886000 19000 8380 23600 124000 27500 43200 9150 9800 60300 46400 20800 3010 125000 36400 10300 10900 41800 103000 56400 2470 54300 26500 13100 16800 32700 15100 4910 163000 7930 9140 376000 37600 6980 4510 78800 12600 5270 25200 71900 9700 48200 22900 20100
2020-06-06 284000 1173000 59000 9540 185000 11900 241000 187000 25200 235000 47000 25400 34000 20000 43700 662000 96300 127000 35800 244000 29700 169000 111000 189000 21700 453000 43600 168000 1901000 19200 8570 24100 126000 27700 43400 9210 9800 61000 46700 21100 3030 126000 36700 10300 11000 42000 104000 57000 2500 54500 26800 13200 17000 33300 15300 4970 163000 7990 9210 376000 37900 7080 4550 79200 12900 5300 26000 73000 9900 48800 23000 20300
2020-06-07 284000 1174000 59100 9550 185000 11900 242000 188000 25300 235000 47100 25600 34200 20100 44300 679000 96700 131000 36800 251000 30200 170000 113000 194000 22100 459000 44700 169000 1916000 19400 8690 24400 127000 27800 43600 9270 9900 61600 47000 21300 3060 127000 36900 10400 11200 42300 104000 57600 2520 54700 27100 13300 17100 33800 15500 5020 163000 8050 9280 377000 38100 7180 4600 79600 13000 5340 26700 73700 10000 49200 23200 20500
2020-06-08 284000 1176000 59200 9560 185000 11900 242000 188000 25300 235000 47100 25800 34400 20200 45400 703000 97100 135000 37900 259000 30600 172000 116000 199000 22700 464000 45800 169000 1923000 19600 8790 24800 129000 27900 43800 9330 9900 62000 47300 21400 3080 128000 37100 10500 11300 42600 105000 58100 2550 54900 27300 13400 17300 34400 15600 5060 164000 8100 9340 377000 38500 7290 4630 80000 13400 5370 27300 74500 10100 50000 23400 20700
2020-06-09 285000 1177000 59200 9560 185000 11900 242000 188000 25300 235000 47100 25900 34500 20300 45900 720000 97400 138000 38700 266000 31000 172000 118000 202000 22800 469000 46700 169000 1933000 19800 8900 24900 130000 28000 44000 9380 9900 62400 47500 21500 3110 129000 37400 10500 11400 42800 106000 58500 2570 55000 27600 13500 17500 34800 15700 5110 164000 8140 9380 378000 38700 7400 4670 80300 13400 5390 27900 74800 10100 50600 23600 21000
2020-06-10 285000 1178000 59300 9570 186000 11900 242000 189000 25400 235000 47200 26000 34700 20300 46200 734000 97800 143000 39500 273000 31300 172000 119000 205000 23100 473000 48300 169000 1938000 20000 9030 25100 132000 28100 44200 9430 10000 62600 47600 21600 3120 130000 37500 10600 11500 43000 106000 58800 2590 55100 27800 13500 17500 35200 15900 5150 164000 8180 9400 378000 38900 7560 4700 80500 13400 5420 28600 75300 10200 51100 23700 21100
2020-06-11 285000 1178000 59300 9580 186000 11900 242000 189000 25400 235000 47200 26100 34800 20300 46400 748000 98100 147000 40300 279000 31500 172000 121000 207000 23400 478000 49100 169000 1944000 20200 9130 25400 133000 28100 44300 9470 10000 62800 47700 21800 3140 131000 37700 10600 11500 43200 106000 59400 2610 55200 28100 13600 17600 35600 16000 5190 164000 8210 9420 378000 39200 7680 4730 80600 13400 5440 29400 75800 10200 51600 23700 21500
2020-06-12 285000 1179000 59400 9590 186000 12000 242000 189000 25400 235000 47200 26200 35000 20400 46500 756000 98400 150000 41400 286000 31800 172000 122000 212000 23700 481000 50500 169000 1949000 20500 9210 25500 134000 28200 44500 9510 10100 63000 47700 21800 3150 131000 37900 10700 11700 43300 107000 59700 2620 55300 28300 13600 17700 35900 16100 5230 164000 8250 9450 379000 39400 7730 4750 80800 13400 5460 29400 76100 10300 52200 23700 21800
2020-06-13 285000 1179000 59400 9600 186000 12000 242000 189000 25400 235000 47200 26300 35100 20400 46900 778000 98700 153000 42200 291000 32100 172000 124000 215000 24000 484000 51700 169000 1950000 20700 9310 25800 135000 28200 44600 9550 10100 63200 47800 21900 3160 132000 38000 10700 11800 43300 107000 60100 2630 55300 28500 13600 17800 36300 16100 5260 164000 8280 9460 379000 39600 7770 4770 81100 13500 5480 29400 76300 10400 52700 23700 22000

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in Europe 2020-06-04

UKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSENOCH
Peak date04-1003-2803-2604-1004-2403-2503-2703-2904-0603-2704-0604-1204-0203-2704-1004-1303-2104-1005-2004-1004-11 --03-2703-23
Peak daily increment 5827 29657 870 1476 78 280 287 5942 331 8160 176 10382 96 75 124 970 5747 1186 407 871 378 295 1193
Days from 100 to peak 36 34 18 34 36 11 14 28 27 25 24 42 22 8 20 30 27 35 66 28 28 21 18
Days from peak/2 to peak 22 18 13 26 40 11 13 16 27 14 24 27 25 12 22 24 17 29 64 23 25 19 12
Last total 281661 1166440 16805 58767 2585 7604 9494 184472 11811 240660 6911 185986 2952 2247 3954 25142 234013 46942 25048 33592 19907 41883 8504 30913
Last daily increment 1805 558 34 82 25 16 56 351 40 334 0 -2850 15 1 23 31 177 209 361 331 238 1080 27 20
Last week 10439 20420 150 706 100 71 298 1550 218 2096 135 2170 43 2 113 266 1765 816 1893 1646 925 5407 82 85
Days since peak 55 68 70 55 41 71 69 67 59 69 59 53 63 69 55 52 75 55 15 55 54 69 73

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed 2020-06-04

AustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-RIUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WV
Peak date03-28 --04-22 -- -- --05-21 -- --05-30 --05-09 --04-1204-0905-26 -- --05-3004-2404-2005-0104-2604-0204-1705-0204-0205-0304-2705-0505-0504-0404-2405-1905-2204-0405-2304-1005-30 --05-2105-0105-0104-0705-0204-0404-0904-1904-0405-0904-0805-1105-3105-08 -- -- --05-2603-2805-2904-07
Peak daily increment 401 1877 736 7082 11145 4676 31921 518 2786 623 1184 203 249 1281 898 588 136 2721 722 297 261 1768 3011 1225 60 1600 731 259 347 90 447 102 4517 174 175 10029 1147 129 80 1723 635 311 171 1203 455 484 50
Days from 100 to peak 18 42 67 74 53 24 37 67 82 40 32 40 32 17 32 40 8 48 37 42 42 19 42 61 60 17 64 19 70 52 33 37 23 38 15 31 31 11 50 22 47 72 38 68 21 72 9
Days from peak/2 to peak 14 33 61 52 33 18 20 63 70 35 27 40 31 12 27 34 9 40 33 40 41 12 30 53 64 13 57 18 69 57 29 41 15 39 15 20 25 13 54 15 40 71 39 59 17 69 14
Last total 7247 614941 95269 118292 33466 226713 28818 164270 105680 183198 20382 440538 40792 167410 1872660 18766 8193 22886 122168 27346 42998 9120 9693 60093 46344 20806 2990 124556 36096 10167 10696 41474 101698 55858 2442 54060 26198 13001 16560 32075 2706 14922 4868 162104 7876 9129 375133 37282 6907 4474 78335 13071 12415 5247 24603 70555 9541 47856 22692 19892 2102
Last daily increment 7 30925 628 4664 1531 9889 585 3574 4442 4284 634 8823 3267 988 21140 212 375 530 2820 300 155 104 34 1418 971 506 57 951 384 75 294 426 467 876 28 201 402 178 238 799 27 252 83 496 103 178 1048 490 102 75 555 0 0 85 357 1678 248 951 236 492 25
Last week 63 149775 4360 27654 8060 53222 3602 17602 21053 34913 3748 52915 11552 5290 126641 1735 1609 4414 15546 1748 1462 582 508 5679 3463 1850 221 7345 2538 505 1257 2756 6514 4870 220 1386 2733 1034 1767 5190 186 1481 382 3708 598 753 6849 2716 569 343 3351 0 1284 381 2986 9654 1186 5323 1679 2185 151
Days since peak 68 43 14 5 26 53 56 9 5 41 45 34 39 63 48 33 63 32 38 30 30 61 41 16 13 61 12 55 5 14 34 34 58 33 61 56 46 61 26 57 24 4 27 9 68 6 58

Initial visual evaluation of forecasts of Confirmed