COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2020-06-08


Disclaimer

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. The documentation that is provided is still in progress and not peer reviewed. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.

Recent changes

[2020-03-24] Our forecasts are starting to overestimate in some cases. This was always expected to happen when the increase starts to slow down. Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, but only for Italy and Spain sofar.
[2020-03-26] Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, only for Italy.
[2020-03-31] Scenario forecasts, based on what happened in China earlier this year, are presented for several countries (line marked with x). Created more plausible 90% confidence bands (dotted line in same colour).
[2020-04-02] Now including more US States, based on New York Times data. And the world.
[2020-04-06] Added a post hoc estimate of the peak number of cases. This needs at least three confirmed observations (four for deaths) after the event. It is based on the averaged smooth trend, and can change later or be a local peak. It is marked with a vertical line with the date label, or a date with left arrow in the bottom left corner of the graph. This is backported to 2020-04-04.
[2020-04-08] Minor correction to peak estimates. Added table with scenario forecasts.
[2020-04-09] Added table with estimated peak dates (if happened) and dates to and since the peak. Note that this can be a local peak, and subsequent re-acceleration (or data revisions) can result in a new peak later.
[2020-04-10] Updated documentation with better description of short-term estimates and peak determination.
[2020-04-16] Added scenario forecasts to all graphs now. This would now be the preferred forecast for most.
This is the first time with a peak in confirmed UK cases (also for deaths, but this is uncertain because it is at the same date).
[2020-04-17] Bird and Nielsen look into nowcasting death counts in England.
[2020-04-24] A summary of our work on short-term COVID-19 forecasting appeared as a voxeu.
[2020-04-27] Our short-term COVID-19 forecasting paper is now available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06.
A small adjustment has been made to the scenario forecast methodology, and will be documented shortly.
[2020-04-29] See our blog entry at the International Institute of Forecasters.
US history of death counts revised in Johns Hopkins/CSSE data.
UK death counts have been revised to include the deaths in care homes. In the Johns Hopkins/CSSE data set, which we use, the entire history has been revised. So forecasts made up to 2020-04-29 cannot be compared to later outcomes. In the ECDC data set only the last observation has changed, causing a jump in the series.
[2020-05-06] The New York Times is in the process of redefining its US state data. Unfortunately, at the moment only the last observation has changed (e.g New York deaths jumped from 19645 on 2020-05-05 to 25956 a day later). This means the data is currently useless; however it does bring it close to the Johns Hopkins/CSSE count (25626 on 2020-05-06). The aggregate US count is based on JH/CSSE so unaffected. We now use Johns Hopkins/CSSE US state data, including all states with sufficient counts. So the new forecasts cannot be compared to those previously.
A minor change is that we show the graph without scenario forecast if no peak has been detected yet.
[2020-05-13] We now omit countries with fewer than 200 confirmed cases in the last week (25 for deaths).
The short-term paper has some small updates, including further comparisons with other models.
Data for Ecuador are not reliable enough for forecasting.
Switched to an improved version of scenario forecasting.
[2020-05-18] Minor fixes to the improved version of scenario forecasting, backported to 2020-05-13.
[2020-05-20] Problem with UK confirmed cases: negative daily count. This makes the forecasts temporarily unreliable.
Updated the second paper.
[2020-06-04] Data issues with confirmed cases for France.
Added an appendix to the short term paper with further forecast comparisons for European and Latin American countries.
Both Sweden and Iran have lost their peak in confirmed cases. For Sweden the previous peak was on 24 April (daily peak of 656 cases), for Iran it was on 31 March (peak of 3116). For Iran this looks like a second wave, with increasing daily counts for the last four weeks. For Sweden this is a sudden jump in confirmed cases in the last two days, compared to a fairly steady weekly pattern over the previous six weeks.
[2020-06-06] Removed Brazil from yesterday's forecasts (last observation 2020-06-05).

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Confirmed count average forecast Europe (bold black line in graphs) 2020-06-09 to 2020-06-15

DateUKEUATBEBGCZDEDKESFRITNLPLPTROSE
2020-06-08 287399 1181789 16968 59348 2810 9697 186109 11962 241717 187458 235278 47739 27160 34885 20604 45133
2020-06-09 289000 1184000 17000 59500 2820 9700 186000 12000 242000 188000 236000 47900 27800 35100 20700 45800
2020-06-10 290000 1187000 17000 59600 2830 9800 187000 12000 242000 188000 236000 48000 28600 35400 20900 46600
2020-06-11 292000 1189000 17100 59700 2850 9800 187000 12100 243000 188000 236000 48200 29400 35700 21100 47500
2020-06-12 293000 1192000 17100 59900 2870 9900 188000 12100 243000 188000 237000 48400 30200 36000 21200 48400
2020-06-13 295000 1194000 17100 60000 2900 9900 188000 12200 243000 188000 237000 48500 31000 36300 21400 49300
2020-06-14 296000 1195000 17200 60100 2920 10000 188000 12200 243000 188000 237000 48700 31900 36600 21600 50200
2020-06-15 298000 1197000 17200 60200 2950 10000 189000 12200 244000 188000 238000 48900 32800 36900 21700 51200

Confirmed count average forecast (bold black line in graphs) 2020-06-09 to 2020-06-15

DateBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-RIUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WI
2020-06-08 707412 97779 138846 40847 265928 32033 173832 120102 199696 22474 476043 50879 171121 1960897 20590 9440 27678 133816 28169 43820 9389 9961 64811 48673 22003 3189 128234 37623 10544 11469 42930 103262 58404 2586 54337 28136 13593 17768 36517 2880 15569 5070 164212 8454 9816 378799 38837 7205 4922 80339 14077 14800 5471 26418 76463 10422 51251 24012 21038
2020-06-09 729000 98000 145000 41700 278000 33000 176000 124000 203000 22700 483000 53700 172000 1977000 20700 9800 29000 138000 28400 44000 9450 10000 65800 49000 22300 3220 129000 38000 10600 11600 43200 104000 58900 2610 54400 28500 13700 17800 37800 2910 15700 5100 165000 8540 10000 380000 39200 7260 4990 80800 14200 15200 5520 26700 77600 10700 51600 24200 21300
2020-06-10 755000 99000 152000 42800 292000 34100 178000 127000 208000 23100 491000 56900 173000 1996000 21000 10200 30500 143000 28600 44200 9520 10000 66800 49600 22700 3260 130000 38300 10700 11800 43600 104000 59600 2640 54500 28900 13800 18000 39400 2930 15900 5140 165000 8650 10300 381000 39600 7340 5100 81300 14200 15700 5570 27100 79000 11000 52300 24500 21600
2020-06-11 781000 99000 159000 44100 308000 35200 181000 131000 212000 23500 499000 60300 174000 2013000 21200 10600 32000 148000 28800 44400 9600 10100 67900 50100 23000 3300 131000 38700 10800 12000 43900 105000 60200 2670 54700 29400 14000 18200 40900 2970 16100 5180 166000 8770 10600 382000 39900 7410 5250 81800 14300 16300 5630 27500 80400 11400 53000 24700 21900
2020-06-12 808000 100000 166000 45700 324000 36400 183000 135000 216000 23900 507000 63800 174000 2031000 21500 11000 33600 153000 29000 44600 9670 10200 69000 50700 23400 3340 131000 39000 10900 12200 44300 105000 60900 2710 54800 29800 14100 18400 42600 3000 16200 5230 166000 8890 10800 383000 40300 7480 5390 82300 14400 16900 5690 27900 81800 11700 53700 25000 22200
2020-06-13 836000 101000 174000 47400 341000 37700 186000 139000 220000 24400 515000 67600 175000 2048000 21800 11500 35400 159000 29200 44800 9740 10200 70100 51200 23800 3390 132000 39400 10900 12300 44600 106000 61500 2740 54900 30200 14300 18700 44300 3040 16400 5280 167000 9010 11100 384000 40700 7560 5540 82700 14500 17600 5740 28300 83200 12100 54400 25300 22500
2020-06-14 866000 101000 182000 49200 359000 39000 188000 143000 225000 24900 524000 71600 176000 2065000 22100 11900 37200 165000 29400 45000 9810 10300 71300 51800 24200 3430 133000 39800 11000 12500 45000 106000 62200 2770 55100 30700 14400 18900 46100 3070 16600 5330 167000 9140 11400 385000 41100 7640 5700 83300 14600 18200 5800 28800 84700 12500 55200 25600 22900
2020-06-15 897000 102000 191000 51100 377000 40300 191000 148000 230000 25400 533000 75800 177000 2082000 22400 12400 39000 170000 29600 45200 9890 10300 72400 52400 24600 3480 133000 40200 11100 12700 45400 107000 62900 2810 55200 31100 14600 19200 48000 3110 16800 5380 168000 9260 11700 386000 41500 7720 5860 83800 14700 18900 5860 29200 86200 12900 55900 25900 23200

Confirmed count forecast Europe (bold red line in graphs) 2020-06-09 to 2020-06-15

DateUKEUATBEBGCZDEDKESFRITNLPLPTROSE
2020-06-08 287399 1181789 16968 59348 2810 9697 186109 11962 241717 187458 235278 47739 27160 34885 20604 45133
2020-06-09 289000 1185000 17000 59500 2840 9700 186000 12000 242000 188000 236000 47900 28100 35100 20800 45500
2020-06-10 290000 1188000 17100 59700 2890 9800 187000 12000 242000 188000 236000 48100 29000 35400 20900 45900
2020-06-11 292000 1190000 17100 59800 2930 9900 187000 12100 242000 188000 236000 48300 29900 35600 21100 46300
2020-06-12 293000 1192000 17200 59900 2980 9900 188000 12100 243000 188000 237000 48400 30900 35800 21200 46800
2020-06-13 294000 1194000 17200 60100 3020 10000 188000 12100 243000 188000 237000 48600 31900 36100 21400 47200
2020-06-14 296000 1196000 17200 60200 3070 10000 188000 12200 243000 188000 237000 48800 32900 36300 21500 47700
2020-06-15 297000 1197000 17300 60400 3120 10100 189000 12200 243000 188000 238000 49000 34000 36500 21700 48100

Confirmed count forecast (bold red line in graphs) 2020-06-09 to 2020-06-15

DateBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-RIUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WI
2020-06-08 707412 97779 138846 40847 265928 32033 173832 120102 199696 22474 476043 50879 171121 1960897 20590 9440 27678 133816 28169 43820 9389 9961 64811 48673 22003 3189 128234 37623 10544 11469 42930 103262 58404 2586 54337 28136 13593 17768 36517 2880 15569 5070 164212 8454 9816 378799 38837 7205 4922 80339 14077 14800 5471 26418 76463 10422 51251 24012 21038
2020-06-09 730000 98000 144000 42400 279000 32900 176000 123000 203000 22900 484000 53600 172000 1979000 20900 9800 29100 139000 28400 44000 9450 10000 65900 49100 22300 3220 129000 38000 10600 11600 43200 104000 58900 2610 54500 28500 13700 18000 38200 2920 15700 5120 165000 8570 10000 380000 39200 7280 5040 80800 14400 15400 5530 26800 77200 10800 52000 24300 21300
2020-06-10 750000 99000 150000 44300 292000 33900 178000 127000 206000 23300 492000 56400 173000 1997000 21300 10200 30400 144000 28600 44200 9520 10100 66900 49600 22600 3250 130000 38300 10700 11800 43400 104000 59400 2640 54500 28900 13800 18300 39700 2950 15900 5160 165000 8690 10300 381000 39500 7340 5200 81300 14700 16000 5580 27200 78100 11100 52700 24500 21600
2020-06-11 771000 100000 156000 46200 307000 35000 180000 130000 210000 23800 500000 59400 174000 2015000 21600 10600 31800 149000 28800 44400 9580 10100 68000 50100 22900 3290 130000 38600 10800 11900 43700 104000 59900 2670 54600 29300 13900 18600 41300 2980 16000 5210 166000 8800 10500 382000 39900 7410 5370 81800 15100 16700 5630 27500 79000 11400 53500 24800 21900
2020-06-12 793000 100000 163000 48100 322000 36100 182000 134000 213000 24300 508000 62500 175000 2032000 22000 11000 33300 155000 28900 44600 9640 10200 69000 50600 23200 3320 131000 38900 10900 12100 44000 105000 60400 2700 54600 29700 14100 18900 43000 3020 16200 5250 166000 8920 10800 383000 40200 7480 5550 82200 15500 17400 5690 27900 79900 11800 54200 25100 22100
2020-06-13 815000 101000 170000 50100 338000 37300 184000 137000 217000 24800 517000 65800 175000 2048000 22300 11400 34800 160000 29100 44700 9700 10200 70100 51200 23500 3360 132000 39200 11000 12200 44200 105000 60900 2730 54700 30100 14200 19200 44700 3050 16300 5300 167000 9040 11000 383000 40500 7550 5730 82700 15900 18100 5740 28300 80800 12200 54900 25400 22400
2020-06-14 838000 101000 177000 52200 355000 38400 186000 141000 220000 25300 525000 69200 176000 2065000 22700 11900 36500 166000 29300 44900 9770 10300 71200 51700 23700 3390 132000 39500 11100 12400 44500 105000 61400 2760 54800 30500 14300 19500 46500 3090 16400 5340 167000 9160 11300 384000 40900 7620 5920 83100 16300 18800 5790 28700 81700 12500 55700 25700 22700
2020-06-15 861000 102000 185000 54500 373000 39700 188000 145000 224000 25800 533000 72800 177000 2081000 23000 12300 38100 172000 29500 45100 9830 10300 72300 52200 24000 3430 133000 39900 11200 12500 44700 105000 61900 2790 54800 30900 14400 19800 48400 3120 16600 5390 167000 9280 11600 385000 41200 7690 6120 83600 16700 19600 5850 29200 82700 12900 56500 26000 22900

Confirmed count scenario forecast (bold purple line in graphs) 2020-06-09 to 2020-06-17

DateUKEUATBEBGCZDEDKESFRITNLPLPTROSEBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-RIUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WI
2020-06-08 287399 1181789 16968 59348 2810 9697 186109 11962 241717 187458 235278 47739 27160 34885 20604 45133 707412 97779 138846 40847 265928 32033 173832 120102 199696 22474 476043 50879 171121 1960897 20590 9440 27678 133816 28169 43820 9389 9961 64811 48673 22003 3189 128234 37623 10544 11469 42930 103262 58404 2586 54337 28136 13593 17768 36517 2880 15569 5070 164212 8454 9816 378799 38837 7205 4922 80339 14077 14800 5471 26418 76463 10422 51251 24012 21038
2020-06-09 289000 1183000 17000 59500 2820 9720 186000 12000 242000 187000 236000 47800 27400 35100 20800 46200 731000 98000 143000 41700 276000 32500 176000 123000 203000 22900 483000 52700 172000 1973000 20800 9800 28800 136000 28300 44000 9450 10000 65800 49200 22200 3210 129000 37900 10600 11600 43200 104000 58900 2620 54400 28500 13700 17800 37700 2910 15700 5120 165000 8530 9900 380000 39200 7250 4950 80700 14100 15100 5530 26700 78000 10700 51900 24200 21300
2020-06-10 290000 1185000 17000 59600 2870 9750 187000 12000 242000 187000 236000 48000 27800 35400 20900 46900 749000 99000 146000 42800 283000 33100 178000 126000 206000 23400 490000 54600 172000 1988000 21200 10000 29500 138000 28400 44200 9500 10000 66600 49700 22500 3230 130000 38100 10600 11700 43400 104000 59400 2640 54400 28900 13800 18100 38500 2940 15800 5160 165000 8640 10100 380000 39400 7320 5040 81000 14100 15500 5590 27000 79200 10800 52600 24400 21500
2020-06-11 291000 1186000 17000 59700 2910 9750 187000 12100 242000 187000 236000 48100 28000 35500 21100 47400 768000 99000 152000 43800 292000 33400 180000 128000 209000 23900 495000 56600 173000 1999000 21500 10200 30200 140000 28500 44300 9550 10100 67100 50200 22700 3260 130000 38400 10700 11800 43700 105000 59900 2670 54400 29200 13900 18400 39200 2970 15900 5200 165000 8730 10200 381000 39700 7370 5100 81300 14100 15800 5640 27200 80300 10900 53400 24600 21700
2020-06-12 292000 1188000 17000 59700 2930 9760 187000 12100 242000 187000 236000 48200 28200 35700 21200 48100 786000 100000 155000 44700 299000 33700 182000 130000 212000 24400 501000 58100 173000 2009000 21800 10400 30900 142000 28600 44400 9590 10100 67500 50600 22900 3270 131000 38500 10700 11800 43800 105000 60400 2700 54400 29500 14000 18600 39800 2990 16000 5240 165000 8810 10200 382000 39900 7440 5120 81600 14100 16100 5690 27400 81100 11100 54000 24800 21900
2020-06-13 293000 1189000 17000 59800 2960 9760 187000 12100 242000 187000 236000 48300 28200 35800 21300 48400 799000 100000 161000 45400 305000 33800 182000 131000 214000 24900 506000 60300 174000 2015000 22200 10600 31300 143000 28700 44600 9620 10200 68300 51100 23100 3290 131000 38700 10800 12000 43900 105000 60800 2720 54400 29800 14100 18900 40200 3000 16100 5270 166000 8880 10300 382000 40100 7460 5140 81800 14100 16400 5730 27400 81700 11200 54600 24900 22200
2020-06-14 294000 1190000 17000 59900 2970 9760 187000 12100 242000 187000 236000 48400 28300 35900 21400 48900 812000 100000 164000 46200 309000 33900 183000 132000 217000 25400 510000 61800 174000 2019000 22500 10700 31700 145000 28700 44700 9660 10200 68400 51500 23200 3290 132000 38800 10800 12000 44000 105000 61100 2740 54400 30000 14100 19100 40700 3000 16200 5300 166000 8950 10300 383000 40300 7500 5140 82000 14100 16500 5760 27600 82100 11200 55100 25000 22300
2020-06-15 294000 1190000 17000 59900 3000 9760 187000 12100 243000 187000 236000 48500 28300 36000 21500 49300 826000 101000 169000 47000 313000 34000 184000 134000 219000 25900 513000 63300 174000 2022000 22600 10900 32400 146000 28800 44800 9690 10200 69200 51900 23300 3300 132000 39000 10800 12000 44000 105000 61400 2760 54400 30200 14200 19300 41200 3010 16200 5330 166000 9020 10300 383000 40500 7520 5140 82100 14100 16600 5800 27800 82300 11300 55600 25000 22500
2020-06-16 295000 1190000 17000 59900 3010 9760 187000 12100 243000 187000 236000 48500 28400 36000 21600 50100 840000 101000 172000 47800 321000 34200 184000 136000 223000 26300 517000 64700 174000 2025000 22900 11100 32900 148000 28800 44800 9710 10300 69300 52200 23400 3300 133000 39100 10900 12100 44000 106000 61800 2780 54400 30400 14200 19400 41700 3030 16300 5350 166000 9070 10400 383000 40600 7530 5140 82200 14100 16700 5830 27900 82800 11400 56000 25000 22700
2020-06-17 295000 1190000 17000 60000 3020 9760 188000 12100 243000 187000 236000 48600 28400 36000 21600 50300 853000 101000 176000 48500 329000 34400 185000 137000 225000 26900 519000 66100 174000 2026000 23000 11200 33400 149000 28900 44900 9730 10300 69600 52500 23500 3300 133000 39200 10900 12100 44000 106000 62200 2800 54400 30600 14300 19700 42100 3030 16400 5370 166000 9120 10400 384000 40700 7540 5140 82300 14100 16800 5850 28200 83400 11500 56400 25000 22900

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in Europe 2020-06-08

UKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSENOCH
Peak date04-1003-2803-2604-1004-2403-2503-2703-2904-0603-2704-0604-1204-0203-2704-1004-1303-2104-10 --04-1004-1106-0303-2703-23
Peak daily increment 5826 29658 870 1476 78 280 287 5942 331 8160 176 10383 96 75 124 970 5747 1186 871 378 1267 296 1193
Days from 100 to peak 36 34 18 34 36 11 14 28 27 25 24 42 22 8 20 30 27 35 28 28 88 21 18
Days from peak/2 to peak 22 18 13 26 40 11 13 16 27 14 24 27 25 12 22 24 17 29 23 25 82 19 12
Last total 287399 1181789 16968 59348 2810 7700 9697 186109 11962 241717 7001 187458 3049 2247 4014 25207 235278 47739 27160 34885 20604 45133 8561 30972
Last daily increment 1205 2843 66 122 83 8 69 359 14 167 20 98 52 0 6 6 280 165 599 192 125 403 14 7
Last week 9414 24161 209 733 272 128 333 2230 228 1785 114 2478 112 1 93 141 1763 1092 2765 1990 1087 6544 106 98
Days since peak 59 72 74 59 45 75 73 71 63 73 63 57 67 73 59 56 79 59 59 58 5 73 77

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed 2020-06-08

AustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-RIUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WV
Peak date03-2806-0404-22 -- -- -- --06-0406-0405-3005-2905-09 --04-1204-0905-26 -- -- --04-2404-2005-0104-2604-0204-1705-0204-0205-0304-2705-0505-0504-0404-2405-1905-2204-0405-2304-1005-29 --05-2105-0105-0104-0705-02 --04-0904-1904-04 --04-08 -- --05-0806-0206-05 --05-2603-2805-2905-24
Peak daily increment 401 26551 1878 3177 3818 6853 738 11144 4676 31922 532 623 1184 203 249 1281 898 588 136 2721 722 297 261 1768 3011 1208 60 1600 738 259 348 92 447 102 4517 174 10029 1147 129 1724 171 763 1702 1231 455 490 51
Days from 100 to peak 18 82 42 100 78 74 76 53 24 37 67 40 32 40 32 17 32 40 8 48 37 42 42 19 42 61 60 17 64 19 69 52 33 37 23 38 31 31 11 22 38 76 80 68 21 72 56
Days from peak/2 to peak 14 58 33 93 61 52 68 33 18 20 63 35 27 40 31 12 27 34 9 40 33 40 41 12 30 53 64 13 57 18 67 57 29 41 15 39 20 25 13 15 39 71 73 59 17 69 61
Last total 7267 707412 97779 138846 40847 265928 32033 173832 120102 199696 22474 476043 50879 171121 1960897 20590 9440 27678 133816 28169 43820 9389 9961 64811 48673 22003 3189 128234 37623 10544 11469 42930 103262 58404 2586 54337 28136 13593 17768 36517 2880 15569 5070 164212 8454 9816 378799 38837 7205 4922 80339 14077 14800 5471 26418 76463 10422 51251 24012 21038 2161
Last daily increment 2 15654 601 4696 2698 8442 847 2043 2999 3181 579 8970 2594 989 17250 424 278 689 3201 182 120 57 34 970 705 295 50 677 226 138 189 234 173 431 18 0 337 97 498 892 19 122 36 421 122 147 702 361 55 260 431 1006 514 33 512 1055 185 570 315 203 17
Last week 38 152029 3820 30160 10254 58737 4484 16270 22776 29657 3477 52857 15067 5566 129076 2116 1825 6414 16601 1395 1092 503 329 7451 4171 1987 256 5648 2386 579 1291 2269 2472 4229 210 772 2711 893 1727 6494 234 1168 331 3237 772 958 5759 2487 513 587 3114 1006 2385 404 2663 9153 1355 5012 1882 2121 105
Days since peak 72 4 47 4 4 9 10 30 57 60 13 45 49 38 43 67 52 37 67 36 42 34 34 65 45 20 17 65 16 59 10 18 38 38 62 37 60 50 65 61 31 6 3 13 72 10 15

Initial visual evaluation of forecasts of Confirmed