COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2020-06-12


Disclaimer

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. The documentation that is provided is still in progress and not peer reviewed. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.

Recent changes

[2020-03-24] Our forecasts are starting to overestimate in some cases. This was always expected to happen when the increase starts to slow down. Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, but only for Italy and Spain sofar.
[2020-03-26] Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, only for Italy.
[2020-03-31] Scenario forecasts, based on what happened in China earlier this year, are presented for several countries (line marked with x). Created more plausible 90% confidence bands (dotted line in same colour).
[2020-04-02] Now including more US States, based on New York Times data. And the world.
[2020-04-06] Added a post hoc estimate of the peak number of cases. This needs at least three confirmed observations (four for deaths) after the event. It is based on the averaged smooth trend, and can change later or be a local peak. It is marked with a vertical line with the date label, or a date with left arrow in the bottom left corner of the graph. This is backported to 2020-04-04.
[2020-04-08] Minor correction to peak estimates. Added table with scenario forecasts.
[2020-04-09] Added table with estimated peak dates (if happened) and dates to and since the peak. Note that this can be a local peak, and subsequent re-acceleration (or data revisions) can result in a new peak later.
[2020-04-10] Updated documentation with better description of short-term estimates and peak determination.
[2020-04-16] Added scenario forecasts to all graphs now. This would now be the preferred forecast for most.
This is the first time with a peak in confirmed UK cases (also for deaths, but this is uncertain because it is at the same date).
[2020-04-17] Bird and Nielsen look into nowcasting death counts in England.
[2020-04-24] A summary of our work on short-term COVID-19 forecasting appeared as a voxeu.
[2020-04-27] Our short-term COVID-19 forecasting paper is now available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06.
A small adjustment has been made to the scenario forecast methodology, and will be documented shortly.
[2020-04-29] See our blog entry at the International Institute of Forecasters.
US history of death counts revised in Johns Hopkins/CSSE data.
UK death counts have been revised to include the deaths in care homes. In the Johns Hopkins/CSSE data set, which we use, the entire history has been revised. So forecasts made up to 2020-04-29 cannot be compared to later outcomes. In the ECDC data set only the last observation has changed, causing a jump in the series.
[2020-05-06] The New York Times is in the process of redefining its US state data. Unfortunately, at the moment only the last observation has changed (e.g New York deaths jumped from 19645 on 2020-05-05 to 25956 a day later). This means the data is currently useless; however it does bring it close to the Johns Hopkins/CSSE count (25626 on 2020-05-06). The aggregate US count is based on JH/CSSE so unaffected. We now use Johns Hopkins/CSSE US state data, including all states with sufficient counts. So the new forecasts cannot be compared to those previously.
A minor change is that we show the graph without scenario forecast if no peak has been detected yet.
[2020-05-13] We now omit countries with fewer than 200 confirmed cases in the last week (25 for deaths).
The short-term paper has some small updates, including further comparisons with other models.
Data for Ecuador are not reliable enough for forecasting.
Switched to an improved version of scenario forecasting.
[2020-05-18] Minor fixes to the improved version of scenario forecasting, backported to 2020-05-13.
[2020-05-20] Problem with UK confirmed cases: negative daily count. This makes the forecasts temporarily unreliable.
Updated the second paper.
[2020-06-04] Data issues with confirmed cases for France.
Added an appendix to the short term paper with further forecast comparisons for European and Latin American countries.
Both Sweden and Iran have lost their peak in confirmed cases. For Sweden the previous peak was on 24 April (daily peak of 656 cases), for Iran it was on 31 March (peak of 3116). For Iran this looks like a second wave, with increasing daily counts for the last four weeks. For Sweden this is a sudden jump in confirmed cases in the last two days, compared to a fairly steady weekly pattern over the previous six weeks.
[2020-06-06] Removed Brazil from yesterday's forecasts (last observation 2020-06-05).

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Confirmed count average forecast Europe (bold black line in graphs) 2020-06-13 to 2020-06-19

DateUKEUBEBGCZDEESFRITNLPLPTROSE
2020-06-12 292950 1197342 59819 3191 9938 187226 243209 188918 236305 48461 28577 36180 21404 49684
2020-06-13 294000 1199000 59900 3290 10000 187000 243000 189000 237000 48600 28800 36500 21500 50900
2020-06-14 295000 1202000 60100 3400 10000 188000 244000 189000 237000 48800 29200 36700 21600 52400
2020-06-15 297000 1204000 60200 3510 10100 188000 244000 189000 237000 49000 29500 37000 21800 54000
2020-06-16 298000 1206000 60300 3630 10100 188000 244000 189000 238000 49200 29900 37300 21900 55600
2020-06-17 299000 1208000 60400 3750 10200 189000 245000 189000 238000 49300 30200 37600 22100 57300
2020-06-18 301000 1210000 60600 3870 10200 189000 245000 189000 238000 49500 30600 37900 22300 59100
2020-06-19 302000 1211000 60700 4000 10300 189000 245000 189000 238000 49700 31000 38200 22400 60900

Confirmed count average forecast (bold black line in graphs) 2020-06-13 to 2020-06-19

DateBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-RIUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WI
2020-06-12 828810 99595 160846 45344 297535 36406 182525 139196 214788 24787 510761 61927 175218 2048986 23333 11247 33039 146659 28807 44400 9654 10157 70871 52180 23346 3353 131044 39146 10973 12157 44755 104706 60613 61313 29730 14316 19091 41417 3016 16342 5246 165972 8876 10704 381714 40424 7849 5377 82481 14077 17170 5742 28513 84927 11356 53211 25137 22246
2020-06-13 865000 100000 167000 45800 304000 37700 184000 145000 217000 25100 517000 64900 176000 2058000 24000 11400 34300 151000 29000 44500 9700 10200 72900 52500 23500 3360 132000 39400 11000 12300 44900 105000 61000 61500 29900 14400 19300 42600 3040 16400 5280 166000 8940 11000 382000 40600 8020 5510 82800 14100 17700 5770 28700 88000 11700 53700 25300 22400
2020-06-14 908000 101000 175000 46600 312000 39100 186000 151000 221000 25600 525000 68200 177000 2071000 24800 11900 35900 156000 29100 44600 9800 10200 75200 53100 23900 3380 132000 39700 11100 12400 45300 105000 61500 61900 30300 14600 19500 44100 3060 16500 5310 167000 9010 11300 383000 41000 8230 5680 83300 14200 18400 5820 29100 90000 12000 54200 25500 22600
2020-06-15 953000 101000 183000 47500 321000 40600 188000 158000 224000 26100 533000 71800 178000 2087000 25700 12300 37600 162000 29300 44800 9800 10300 77600 53800 24200 3410 133000 40100 11200 12600 45600 106000 62000 62300 30700 14700 19700 45700 3090 16600 5350 167000 9090 11600 384000 41300 8430 5860 83700 14300 19200 5870 29500 93000 12300 54700 25700 22900
2020-06-16 1001000 101000 191000 48600 331000 42200 190000 164000 227000 26700 541000 75500 179000 2103000 26600 12800 39300 167000 29400 44900 9900 10300 80100 54500 24600 3440 133000 40400 11300 12700 46000 106000 62500 62700 31000 14800 20000 47300 3120 16700 5390 168000 9190 12000 385000 41600 8650 6040 84200 14300 20000 5930 30000 97000 12700 55200 25900 23100
2020-06-17 1051000 102000 199000 49700 340000 43800 191000 171000 231000 27200 550000 79500 179000 2118000 27500 13300 41100 173000 29600 45100 10000 10400 82600 55200 24900 3470 134000 40700 11300 12900 46300 106000 63000 63100 31400 15000 20300 49000 3150 16900 5430 168000 9280 12300 386000 42000 8870 6220 84700 14400 20800 5980 30400 100000 13000 55800 26200 23400
2020-06-18 1103000 102000 208000 50900 351000 45500 193000 179000 234000 27800 558000 83600 180000 2133000 28500 13900 43000 179000 29800 45200 10000 10400 85200 55900 25300 3500 134000 41100 11400 13000 46700 106000 63500 63500 31800 15100 20500 50800 3180 17000 5470 169000 9380 12700 386000 42300 9100 6410 85100 14500 21700 6040 30900 103000 13400 56300 26400 23600
2020-06-19 1158000 103000 218000 52100 361000 47300 195000 186000 238000 28300 567000 88000 181000 2147000 29500 14400 45000 185000 29900 45400 10100 10500 88000 56600 25700 3530 135000 41400 11500 13200 47100 107000 64000 63900 32100 15300 20800 52700 3210 17200 5510 169000 9480 13000 387000 42700 9330 6610 85600 14500 22600 6100 31300 107000 13800 56900 26700 23900

Confirmed count forecast Europe (bold red line in graphs) 2020-06-13 to 2020-06-19

DateUKEUBEBGCZDEESFRITNLPLPTROSE
2020-06-12 292950 1197342 59819 3191 9938 187226 243209 188918 236305 48461 28577 36180 21404 49684
2020-06-13 294000 1201000 59900 3320 10000 188000 244000 189000 237000 48600 28900 36400 21600 51200
2020-06-14 296000 1205000 60100 3440 10000 188000 244000 190000 237000 48800 29200 36700 21800 52700
2020-06-15 297000 1208000 60200 3560 10100 188000 244000 190000 237000 49000 29600 37000 22000 54300
2020-06-16 298000 1211000 60300 3690 10200 189000 245000 190000 238000 49200 29900 37200 22100 56100
2020-06-17 300000 1214000 60400 3820 10200 189000 245000 190000 238000 49400 30200 37500 22300 57900
2020-06-18 301000 1216000 60600 3960 10300 189000 245000 190000 238000 49600 30600 37700 22500 59700
2020-06-19 302000 1218000 60700 4100 10300 190000 246000 191000 238000 49700 30900 38000 22700 61600

Confirmed count forecast (bold red line in graphs) 2020-06-13 to 2020-06-19

DateBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-RIUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WI
2020-06-12 828810 99595 160846 45344 297535 36406 182525 139196 214788 24787 510761 61927 175218 2048986 23333 11247 33039 146659 28807 44400 9654 10157 70871 52180 23346 3353 131044 39146 10973 12157 44755 104706 60613 61313 29730 14316 19091 41417 3016 16342 5246 165972 8876 10704 381714 40424 7849 5377 82481 14077 17170 5742 28513 84927 11356 53211 25137 22246
2020-06-13 866000 100000 169000 46300 301000 37800 185000 145000 217000 25300 519000 64700 176000 2069000 24300 11700 34500 151000 29000 44600 9700 10200 73200 52900 23600 3370 132000 39500 11000 12300 45100 105000 61100 61600 30100 14400 19300 42700 3050 16500 5290 166000 8970 11000 383000 40800 8060 5560 82900 14200 18000 5800 28900 88000 11700 53700 25400 22500
2020-06-14 905000 101000 177000 47400 305000 39200 186000 150000 219000 25800 527000 67700 177000 2088000 25200 12200 36200 157000 29100 44800 9800 10300 75600 53600 23900 3410 132000 39800 11100 12400 45400 105000 61500 61800 30500 14500 19700 44300 3080 16700 5330 167000 9070 11300 383000 41100 8290 5740 83400 14300 18800 5860 29300 91000 12000 54200 25600 22800
2020-06-15 946000 101000 185000 48600 309000 40700 188000 156000 221000 26300 535000 70800 178000 2106000 26200 12800 37900 162000 29300 44900 9800 10300 78100 54300 24200 3440 133000 40100 11200 12500 45800 106000 62000 61900 30900 14600 20000 45900 3110 16800 5370 167000 9180 11700 384000 41400 8510 5930 83900 14400 19700 5920 29800 94000 12300 54600 25900 23000
2020-06-16 990000 101000 194000 49800 314000 42300 190000 163000 224000 26900 543000 74200 179000 2124000 27300 13400 39700 167000 29400 45100 9900 10400 80700 55100 24500 3480 133000 40400 11300 12700 46200 106000 62400 62100 31200 14700 20400 47700 3150 17000 5410 168000 9280 12000 385000 41800 8750 6130 84400 14500 20600 5970 30200 97000 12700 55100 26200 23200
2020-06-17 1036000 102000 204000 51000 320000 43900 192000 169000 226000 27400 551000 77600 180000 2142000 28400 14000 41600 173000 29600 45300 9900 10400 83400 55800 24800 3510 134000 40800 11400 12800 46600 106000 62900 62200 31600 14800 20700 49500 3180 17100 5450 168000 9380 12400 386000 42100 9000 6330 84900 14700 21500 6040 30700 101000 13100 55600 26500 23500
2020-06-18 1084000 102000 213000 52300 325000 45600 194000 176000 228000 28000 559000 81300 181000 2159000 29500 14700 43500 179000 29800 45500 10000 10500 86200 56500 25100 3540 134000 41100 11500 12900 47000 107000 63300 62400 32000 14900 21000 51300 3210 17300 5490 169000 9490 12700 386000 42500 9260 6540 85400 14800 22500 6100 31100 105000 13400 56100 26700 23700
2020-06-19 1135000 103000 224000 53600 331000 47300 196000 183000 230000 28600 567000 85100 182000 2176000 30700 15400 45600 185000 29900 45600 10100 10500 89100 57300 25500 3580 134000 41400 11600 13100 47300 107000 63800 62500 32400 15000 21400 53300 3250 17400 5530 169000 9600 13100 387000 42800 9520 6760 85900 14900 23500 6160 31600 108000 13800 56500 27000 24000

Confirmed count scenario forecast (bold purple line in graphs) 2020-06-13 to 2020-06-21

DateUKEUBEBGCZDEESFRITNLPLPTROSEBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-RIUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WI
2020-06-12 292950 1197342 59819 3191 9938 187226 243209 188918 236305 48461 28577 36180 21404 49684 828810 99595 160846 45344 297535 36406 182525 139196 214788 24787 510761 61927 175218 2048986 23333 11247 33039 146659 28807 44400 9654 10157 70871 52180 23346 3353 131044 39146 10973 12157 44755 104706 60613 61313 29730 14316 19091 41417 3016 16342 5246 165972 8876 10704 381714 40424 7849 5377 82481 14077 17170 5742 28513 84927 11356 53211 25137 22246
2020-06-13 294000 1199000 60000 3280 10000 187000 244000 189000 237000 48600 28900 36400 21500 50200 860000 100000 165000 46200 307000 37400 183000 143000 219000 25200 518000 63800 176000 2055000 23700 11400 34000 149000 28900 44400 9690 10200 72100 52700 23500 3350 131000 39400 11000 12200 44900 105000 60900 61600 29900 14400 19100 42100 3040 16300 5270 166000 8940 10900 382000 40700 7940 5510 82600 14300 17700 5780 28700 86500 11600 53500 25200 22400
2020-06-14 294000 1202000 60100 3370 10000 187000 244000 189000 237000 48700 29200 36600 21600 51000 888000 100000 169000 47600 313000 38200 184000 146000 222000 25600 524000 66100 176000 2066000 24600 11700 35000 151000 29000 44500 9730 10200 73500 53000 23700 3360 132000 39600 11100 12400 45100 105000 61300 62000 30200 14500 19300 43100 3060 16400 5310 167000 9010 11000 383000 40900 8070 5590 82900 14400 18300 5830 29000 88200 11700 53900 25300 22600
2020-06-15 295000 1205000 60200 3420 10100 188000 244000 189000 237000 48800 29400 36800 21700 51600 917000 101000 174000 48700 320000 39000 185000 148000 226000 26000 530000 67900 177000 2074000 25000 12000 35800 153000 29100 44500 9770 10300 75100 53600 23900 3390 132000 39900 11100 12500 45300 105000 61600 62000 30500 14500 19500 43700 3080 16500 5330 167000 9060 11100 383000 41100 8150 5650 83100 14500 18900 5880 29400 89800 11900 54200 25400 22800
2020-06-16 295000 1208000 60300 3460 10100 188000 244000 190000 238000 48900 29600 37000 21800 52500 945000 101000 178000 49900 328000 39900 186000 151000 228000 26400 535000 70300 178000 2079000 25200 12200 37100 155000 29200 44600 9810 10300 76900 53800 24200 3400 133000 40100 11200 12600 45600 106000 61900 62000 30800 14600 19600 44900 3100 16600 5360 167000 9130 11300 383000 41400 8260 5720 83200 14700 19400 5920 29800 92200 12100 54400 25500 23000
2020-06-17 295000 1211000 60400 3490 10100 188000 244000 190000 238000 49000 29700 37100 21900 53100 969000 101000 182000 51500 333000 40300 186000 152000 231000 26900 540000 71800 178000 2084000 25500 12400 37900 155000 29200 44600 9840 10300 77800 54300 24300 3420 133000 40300 11300 12600 45600 106000 62200 62000 31000 14600 19700 45200 3110 16600 5380 167000 9180 11300 384000 41600 8280 5740 83300 14800 19900 5950 30100 93100 12200 54600 25500 23200
2020-06-18 295000 1213000 60400 3490 10100 188000 245000 190000 238000 49100 29800 37300 22000 53900 992000 101000 185000 52700 338000 40900 186000 153000 233000 27200 544000 73700 178000 2084000 25600 12400 38700 156000 29300 44600 9860 10300 78800 54400 24500 3420 134000 40500 11300 12700 45700 106000 62500 62000 31200 14600 19700 45700 3120 16700 5400 167000 9230 11400 384000 41800 8280 5780 83300 14900 20300 5980 30400 93900 12300 54900 25500 23300
2020-06-19 295000 1215000 60400 3490 10100 188000 245000 190000 238000 49100 29900 37300 22000 54900 1015000 101000 190000 53400 343000 41300 186000 156000 236000 27500 549000 77400 178000 2085000 25800 12500 39500 157000 29400 44600 9890 10400 80000 54500 24600 3420 134000 40700 11300 12800 45800 106000 62700 62000 31400 14600 19700 46100 3130 16800 5420 168000 9280 11500 384000 42000 8310 5800 83300 14900 20900 6010 30900 94900 12500 55100 25500 23400
2020-06-20 295000 1217000 60500 3490 10100 188000 245000 190000 239000 49100 30000 37300 22000 55500 1035000 101000 194000 54500 346000 41600 186000 158000 237000 27800 552000 78900 178000 2085000 25900 12600 40200 158000 29500 44700 9920 10400 81600 54500 24700 3420 134000 40800 11400 12800 45900 106000 62900 62000 31600 14600 19700 46300 3150 16800 5430 168000 9310 11500 384000 42100 8310 5810 83300 14900 21200 6030 31300 95200 12600 55400 25500 23600
2020-06-21 296000 1218000 60500 3490 10100 188000 245000 190000 239000 49100 30100 37300 22100 56400 1052000 102000 198000 55600 351000 41900 186000 160000 238000 28100 555000 81300 178000 2085000 25900 12700 40900 160000 29500 44700 9940 10400 83300 54500 24800 3420 134000 41000 11400 12900 45900 107000 63100 62000 31700 14600 19700 46700 3160 16900 5450 168000 9350 11600 385000 42300 8320 5810 83300 15000 21400 6050 31700 96000 12700 55700 25500 23700

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in Europe 2020-06-12

UKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSENOCH
Peak date04-1003-2803-2604-10 --03-2503-2703-2904-0603-2704-0604-1204-0203-2704-1004-1303-2104-1006-0604-1004-11 --03-2703-23
Peak daily increment 5826 29659 870 1476 280 287 5942 331 8160 176 10384 96 75 124 970 5747 1186 481 871 378 296 1193
Days from 100 to peak 36 34 18 34 11 14 28 27 25 24 42 22 8 20 30 27 35 83 28 28 21 18
Days from peak/2 to peak 22 18 13 26 11 13 16 27 14 24 27 25 12 22 24 17 29 80 23 25 19 12
Last total 292950 1197342 17064 59819 3191 7781 9938 187226 12099 243209 7073 188918 3108 2249 4053 25250 236305 48461 28577 36180 21404 49684 8620 31063
Last daily increment 1541 4710 30 108 105 12 83 535 64 502 9 564 20 0 14 12 163 210 376 270 222 1396 12 19
Last week 8082 21973 166 747 480 110 371 1776 175 1899 109 1851 128 2 63 67 1504 1126 2591 1829 1114 5797 89 107
Days since peak 63 76 78 63 79 77 75 67 77 67 61 71 77 63 60 83 63 6 63 62 77 81

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed 2020-06-12

AustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-RIUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WV
Peak date03-28 --04-22 --06-05 -- --03-31 --05-3005-2905-09 --04-1204-09 -- -- -- --04-2404-2005-0104-26 --04-1705-0204-0205-0304-2705-0505-0504-0404-2405-1905-2206-0505-2304-06 -- --05-2105-0105-0104-0705-02 --04-0904-19 -- --04-0805-11 --05-0806-02 -- --05-2603-2805-2905-27
Peak daily increment 402 1878 1773 3116 6774 762 11143 4676 31941 623 1185 203 249 898 588 136 2721 722 297 261 1768 3082 1208 60 1803 734 282 92 447 102 4517 174 10029 1147 1724 635 171 732 1226 455 503 53
Days from 100 to peak 18 42 78 35 74 76 53 24 36 40 32 40 32 32 40 8 48 37 42 42 19 42 61 60 79 64 15 52 33 37 23 38 31 31 22 47 38 76 68 21 72 59
Days from peak/2 to peak 14 33 66 28 52 67 33 18 20 35 27 40 31 27 34 9 40 33 40 41 12 30 53 64 74 57 14 57 29 41 15 39 20 25 15 40 39 72 59 17 69 64
Last total 7294 828810 99595 160846 45344 297535 36406 182525 139196 214788 24787 510761 61927 175218 2048986 23333 11247 33039 146659 28807 44400 9654 10157 70871 52180 23346 3353 131044 39146 10973 12157 44755 104706 60613 2717 61313 29730 14316 19091 41417 3016 16342 5246 165972 8876 10704 381714 40424 7849 5377 82481 14077 17170 5742 28513 84927 11356 53211 25137 22246 2249
Last daily increment 5 25982 436 6754 1534 0 1111 2369 5222 0 612 8961 3359 1195 25396 859 733 1772 3282 175 232 65 64 1898 867 381 93 607 398 150 219 497 398 416 52 204 497 28 608 1833 36 207 41 388 136 231 822 420 223 140 633 0 729 77 778 2269 232 564 378 320 32
Last week 35 155964 3120 33101 8585 50913 5892 13100 25577 23030 3447 52659 15954 6000 123133 3624 2410 7588 18066 973 837 385 324 8210 4364 1877 214 4346 2149 612 877 2389 1926 3131 193 1375 2325 778 2052 6699 200 987 237 2469 684 1213 4398 2313 790 807 2976 1006 3717 375 2923 10457 1316 3814 1720 1675 113
Days since peak 76 51 7 73 13 14 34 61 64 49 53 42 47 56 41 71 40 46 38 38 69 49 24 21 7 20 67 22 42 42 66 41 64 54 65 32 35 10 17 76 14 16

Initial visual evaluation of forecasts of Confirmed