COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2020-06-17


Disclaimer

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. The documentation that is provided is still in progress and not peer reviewed. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.

Recent changes

[2020-03-24] Our forecasts are starting to overestimate in some cases. This was always expected to happen when the increase starts to slow down. Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, but only for Italy and Spain sofar.
[2020-03-26] Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, only for Italy.
[2020-03-31] Scenario forecasts, based on what happened in China earlier this year, are presented for several countries (line marked with x). Created more plausible 90% confidence bands (dotted line in same colour).
[2020-04-02] Now including more US States, based on New York Times data. And the world.
[2020-04-06] Added a post hoc estimate of the peak number of cases. This needs at least three confirmed observations (four for deaths) after the event. It is based on the averaged smooth trend, and can change later or be a local peak. It is marked with a vertical line with the date label, or a date with left arrow in the bottom left corner of the graph. This is backported to 2020-04-04.
[2020-04-08] Minor correction to peak estimates. Added table with scenario forecasts.
[2020-04-09] Added table with estimated peak dates (if happened) and dates to and since the peak. Note that this can be a local peak, and subsequent re-acceleration (or data revisions) can result in a new peak later.
[2020-04-10] Updated documentation with better description of short-term estimates and peak determination.
[2020-04-16] Added scenario forecasts to all graphs now. This would now be the preferred forecast for most.
This is the first time with a peak in confirmed UK cases (also for deaths, but this is uncertain because it is at the same date).
[2020-04-17] Bird and Nielsen look into nowcasting death counts in England.
[2020-04-24] A summary of our work on short-term COVID-19 forecasting appeared as a voxeu.
[2020-04-27] Our short-term COVID-19 forecasting paper is now available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06.
A small adjustment has been made to the scenario forecast methodology, and will be documented shortly.
[2020-04-29] See our blog entry at the International Institute of Forecasters.
US history of death counts revised in Johns Hopkins/CSSE data.
UK death counts have been revised to include the deaths in care homes. In the Johns Hopkins/CSSE data set, which we use, the entire history has been revised. So forecasts made up to 2020-04-29 cannot be compared to later outcomes. In the ECDC data set only the last observation has changed, causing a jump in the series.
[2020-05-06] The New York Times is in the process of redefining its US state data. Unfortunately, at the moment only the last observation has changed (e.g New York deaths jumped from 19645 on 2020-05-05 to 25956 a day later). This means the data is currently useless; however it does bring it close to the Johns Hopkins/CSSE count (25626 on 2020-05-06). The aggregate US count is based on JH/CSSE so unaffected. We now use Johns Hopkins/CSSE US state data, including all states with sufficient counts. So the new forecasts cannot be compared to those previously.
A minor change is that we show the graph without scenario forecast if no peak has been detected yet.
[2020-05-13] We now omit countries with fewer than 200 confirmed cases in the last week (25 for deaths).
The short-term paper has some small updates, including further comparisons with other models.
Data for Ecuador are not reliable enough for forecasting.
Switched to an improved version of scenario forecasting.
[2020-05-18] Minor fixes to the improved version of scenario forecasting, backported to 2020-05-13.
[2020-05-20] Problem with UK confirmed cases: negative daily count. This makes the forecasts temporarily unreliable.
Updated the second paper.
[2020-06-04] Data issues with confirmed cases for France.
Added an appendix to the short term paper with further forecast comparisons for European and Latin American countries.
Both Sweden and Iran have lost their peak in confirmed cases. For Sweden the previous peak was on 24 April (daily peak of 656 cases), for Iran it was on 31 March (peak of 3116). For Iran this looks like a second wave, with increasing daily counts for the last four weeks. For Sweden this is a sudden jump in confirmed cases in the last two days, compared to a fairly steady weekly pattern over the previous six weeks.
[2020-06-06] Removed Brazil from yesterday's forecasts (last observation 2020-06-05).

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Confirmed count average forecast Europe (bold black line in graphs) 2020-06-18 to 2020-06-24

DateUKEUBEBGCZDEDKESFRITNLPLPTROSE
2020-06-17 299251 1215017 60244 3542 10162 188604 12294 244683 189906 237828 49204 30701 37672 22760 54562
2020-06-18 300000 1217000 60300 3570 10200 189000 12300 245000 190000 238000 49300 30900 37800 22900 55300
2020-06-19 302000 1220000 60400 3610 10300 189000 12400 245000 190000 238000 49500 31300 38000 23100 56200
2020-06-20 303000 1222000 60500 3660 10300 189000 12400 246000 190000 238000 49700 31700 38300 23400 57200
2020-06-21 304000 1224000 60700 3710 10300 190000 12400 246000 190000 238000 49800 32000 38600 23600 58100
2020-06-22 305000 1226000 60800 3770 10400 190000 12500 246000 190000 239000 50000 32400 38800 23800 59100
2020-06-23 307000 1228000 60900 3840 10400 190000 12500 247000 191000 239000 50100 32800 39100 24100 60100
2020-06-24 308000 1229000 61000 3900 10500 191000 12600 247000 191000 239000 50300 33100 39300 24300 61200

Confirmed count average forecast (bold black line in graphs) 2020-06-18 to 2020-06-24

DateBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-NCUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-RIUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WI
2020-06-17 955377 101491 220628 55083 366946 41431 195051 159793 240908 27238 552549 80412 182727 2163290 26914 13215 40937 162798 29656 45084 9847 10430 82614 56063 24455 3632 134083 41013 11644 12981 48176 105788 62969 62218 31237 15267 20641 46934 17055 5433 167579 9316 11854 385142 42422 8904 6218 84289 14524 20551 6050 31499 97699 12661 55775 26759 23456
2020-06-18 964000 102000 228000 56900 382000 42300 196000 163000 245000 27600 561000 84000 184000 2177000 27400 13500 42600 167000 29700 45200 9900 10500 85000 56300 24600 3640 135000 41300 11700 13000 48400 106000 63300 62400 31500 15300 20700 47900 17100 5440 168000 9390 12000 386000 42700 9200 6420 84600 14500 21200 6090 32300 100000 12800 56200 27000 23700
2020-06-19 985000 102000 237000 59400 399000 43300 199000 167000 250000 28100 569000 88000 185000 2197000 28100 13900 44600 173000 29900 45300 9900 10500 89000 56900 24800 3650 135000 41600 11700 13100 48900 106000 63700 62500 31800 15400 20900 49000 17300 5470 168000 9470 12200 386000 43000 9400 6650 85000 14600 21800 6150 33200 104000 13100 56600 27300 23900
2020-06-20 1008000 102000 248000 62000 418000 44300 201000 171000 254000 28500 577000 91000 186000 2216000 28700 14300 46600 178000 30100 45500 10000 10600 92000 57600 25000 3670 136000 42000 11800 13200 49400 106000 64200 62700 32000 15500 21100 50200 17400 5500 169000 9550 12400 387000 43400 9700 6880 85400 14600 22500 6200 34200 107000 13300 57100 27500 24100
2020-06-21 1032000 103000 265000 64800 437000 45400 203000 175000 259000 29000 586000 95000 187000 2235000 29400 14700 48800 184000 30200 45600 10000 10600 95000 58300 25200 3690 136000 42300 11900 13300 49900 107000 64600 62900 32300 15700 21300 51300 17500 5540 169000 9640 12600 388000 43800 10000 7120 85800 14700 23300 6260 35200 111000 13500 57500 27800 24400
2020-06-22 1056000 103000 284000 67600 458000 46400 205000 179000 264000 29500 595000 100000 189000 2254000 30200 15100 51000 190000 30400 45800 10100 10700 99000 59000 25500 3710 136000 42700 12000 13400 50400 107000 65000 63100 32600 15800 21500 52500 17700 5570 169000 9720 12800 389000 44100 10300 7360 86200 14700 24000 6310 36300 115000 13800 58000 28100 24600
2020-06-23 1081000 103000 305000 70600 479000 47500 207000 184000 268000 30000 603000 104000 190000 2273000 30900 15500 53400 196000 30500 45900 10100 10700 103000 59800 25700 3740 137000 43000 12100 13500 51000 107000 65500 63200 32900 15900 21800 53700 17800 5600 170000 9810 13000 389000 44500 10700 7620 86500 14800 24800 6370 37400 119000 14000 58400 28400 24800
2020-06-24 1107000 104000 328000 73800 502000 48700 209000 188000 273000 30500 612000 109000 191000 2293000 31700 15900 55800 202000 30700 46000 10100 10800 106000 60500 25900 3770 137000 43400 12200 13600 51500 107000 65900 63400 33200 16100 22100 55000 18000 5640 170000 9890 13200 390000 44900 11000 7890 86900 14800 25600 6430 38500 123000 14300 58900 28800 25100

Confirmed count forecast Europe (bold red line in graphs) 2020-06-18 to 2020-06-24

DateUKEUBEBGCZDEDKESFRITNLPLPTROSE
2020-06-17 299251 1215017 60244 3542 10162 188604 12294 244683 189906 237828 49204 30701 37672 22760 54562
2020-06-18 301000 1218000 60300 3610 10200 189000 12300 245000 190000 238000 49400 31100 37900 23000 55600
2020-06-19 302000 1221000 60400 3680 10300 189000 12400 245000 190000 238000 49500 31500 38200 23300 56600
2020-06-20 303000 1224000 60500 3760 10300 190000 12400 246000 190000 238000 49600 31800 38400 23500 57600
2020-06-21 304000 1226000 60600 3830 10300 190000 12400 246000 190000 238000 49800 32200 38700 23800 58600
2020-06-22 305000 1228000 60700 3900 10400 190000 12500 246000 190000 238000 49900 32600 39000 24100 59700
2020-06-23 306000 1230000 60800 3980 10400 191000 12500 247000 190000 238000 50100 32900 39200 24300 60700
2020-06-24 308000 1232000 60900 4060 10500 191000 12600 247000 190000 238000 50200 33300 39500 24600 61800

Confirmed count forecast (bold red line in graphs) 2020-06-18 to 2020-06-24

DateBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-NCUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-RIUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WI
2020-06-17 955377 101491 220628 55083 366946 41431 195051 159793 240908 27238 552549 80412 182727 2163290 26914 13215 40937 162798 29656 45084 9847 10430 82614 56063 24455 3632 134083 41013 11644 12981 48176 105788 62969 62218 31237 15267 20641 46934 17055 5433 167579 9316 11854 385142 42422 8904 6218 84289 14524 20551 6050 31499 97699 12661 55775 26759 23456
2020-06-18 977000 102000 250000 57500 383000 42300 197000 163000 245000 27700 561000 84000 184000 2185000 27100 13600 42800 168000 29800 45200 9900 10500 86000 56800 24700 3660 135000 41300 11700 13100 48700 106000 63400 62400 31600 15400 20900 47800 17200 5470 168000 9390 12100 386000 42800 9200 6420 84600 14500 21100 6110 32600 101000 12900 56200 27000 23700
2020-06-19 1001000 102000 282000 60000 401000 43200 200000 167000 249000 28200 569000 88000 185000 2206000 27400 13900 44900 173000 30000 45300 9900 10500 90000 57600 24900 3720 135000 41600 11900 13200 49400 106000 63800 62600 31900 15600 21200 48700 17400 5500 168000 9470 12300 387000 43200 9500 6610 85000 14500 21700 6170 33700 105000 13100 56600 27300 23900
2020-06-20 1025000 103000 318000 62300 420000 44100 202000 171000 253000 28600 577000 91000 187000 2226000 27700 14200 47000 179000 30200 45500 10000 10600 93000 58400 25000 3790 136000 41900 12000 13400 50000 106000 64300 62800 32100 15700 21500 49500 17500 5540 169000 9540 12500 387000 43500 9800 6820 85300 14500 22300 6230 34800 110000 13400 57000 27600 24200
2020-06-21 1050000 103000 356000 64900 439000 45100 204000 175000 257000 29100 585000 95000 188000 2246000 28000 14500 49200 185000 30300 45600 10000 10600 97000 59200 25200 3850 136000 42100 12100 13500 50600 107000 64700 63000 32400 15900 21800 50400 17700 5580 169000 9620 12700 388000 43900 10200 7030 85700 14500 23000 6280 35900 114000 13600 57400 27900 24400
2020-06-22 1076000 103000 400000 67500 460000 46000 207000 179000 262000 29500 593000 99000 189000 2266000 28300 14900 51500 191000 30500 45700 10000 10700 101000 60000 25400 3920 137000 42400 12300 13700 51200 107000 65200 63100 32700 16000 22100 51300 17800 5620 169000 9700 12900 389000 44300 10500 7250 86000 14500 23600 6340 37100 119000 13900 57800 28200 24600
2020-06-23 1102000 103000 448000 70200 482000 47000 209000 184000 266000 30000 601000 104000 191000 2286000 28600 15200 54000 198000 30700 45800 10100 10700 106000 60800 25600 3990 137000 42700 12400 13800 51900 107000 65600 63300 33000 16200 22400 52200 18000 5660 170000 9780 13100 389000 44700 10900 7480 86400 14500 24200 6400 38300 123000 14100 58200 28500 24900
2020-06-24 1129000 104000 503000 73100 505000 48000 211000 188000 270000 30500 610000 108000 192000 2306000 28900 15500 56500 204000 30900 45900 10100 10800 110000 61700 25800 4060 137000 43000 12600 14000 52500 107000 66100 63500 33300 16400 22800 53100 18100 5700 170000 9860 13300 390000 45000 11300 7710 86700 14500 24900 6460 39500 129000 14400 58700 28800 25100

Confirmed count scenario forecast (bold purple line in graphs) 2020-06-18 to 2020-06-26

DateUKEUBEBGCZDEDKESFRITNLPLPTROSEBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-NCUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-RIUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WI
2020-06-17 299251 1215017 60244 3542 10162 188604 12294 244683 189906 237828 49204 30701 37672 22760 54562 955377 101491 220628 55083 366946 41431 195051 159793 240908 27238 552549 80412 182727 2163290 26914 13215 40937 162798 29656 45084 9847 10430 82614 56063 24455 3632 134083 41013 11644 12981 48176 105788 62969 62218 31237 15267 20641 46934 17055 5433 167579 9316 11854 385142 42422 8904 6218 84289 14524 20551 6050 31499 97699 12661 55775 26759 23456
2020-06-18 300000 1216000 60300 3600 10200 189000 12300 245000 190000 238000 49300 30900 37700 22900 55500 969000 102000 226000 56800 375000 42200 197000 162000 245000 27700 559000 83000 184000 2169000 27600 13500 41900 165000 29800 45200 9900 10500 84400 56600 24600 3630 134000 41300 11700 13000 48600 106000 63200 62300 31400 15400 20800 47900 17100 5440 168000 9360 12100 386000 42700 9100 6400 84500 14600 21200 6080 32100 99000 12800 56100 26900 23600
2020-06-19 301000 1218000 60400 3670 10200 189000 12300 245000 190000 239000 49400 31300 37900 23100 56400 988000 102000 231000 58400 383000 43000 199000 166000 249000 28000 564000 87000 185000 2187000 28300 13800 43400 167000 29900 45400 9900 10500 86100 57300 24700 3630 135000 41600 11800 13000 49000 106000 63600 62500 31500 15500 21000 48800 17300 5460 168000 9420 12300 387000 43000 9300 6520 84800 14600 21800 6120 32700 101000 13000 56400 27000 23800
2020-06-20 302000 1220000 60400 3700 10300 189000 12400 246000 190000 239000 49500 31600 38100 23300 57100 1008000 102000 236000 59900 390000 43900 201000 168000 253000 28400 569000 90000 186000 2202000 28800 14200 44200 169000 30100 45500 9900 10600 87700 57900 24800 3650 135000 42000 11900 13100 49300 106000 63900 62600 31700 15600 21200 49600 17400 5490 168000 9460 12400 387000 43300 9400 6650 84900 14600 22300 6160 33200 103000 13300 56800 27200 24000
2020-06-21 302000 1221000 60500 3770 10300 189000 12400 246000 190000 240000 49600 31900 38200 23400 57700 1022000 102000 240000 61400 396000 44700 204000 171000 257000 28700 573000 93000 187000 2210000 29500 14600 45400 171000 30200 45600 9900 10600 89100 58700 24900 3660 136000 42200 11900 13100 49600 107000 64100 62700 31900 15700 21400 50600 17500 5510 168000 9520 12600 388000 43500 9500 6780 85100 14700 22700 6190 33500 104000 13500 57100 27200 24100
2020-06-22 303000 1222000 60500 3830 10300 189000 12400 246000 190000 240000 49700 32200 38200 23400 58000 1037000 103000 244000 62800 402000 45500 206000 174000 260000 29000 576000 95000 187000 2218000 30400 14900 46600 173000 30300 45600 10000 10600 90000 58900 25000 3660 136000 42500 12000 13200 49700 107000 64400 62800 32000 15800 21600 51300 17600 5530 168000 9560 12700 388000 43700 9700 6910 85100 14700 23200 6210 33600 106000 13600 57400 27400 24300
2020-06-23 303000 1223000 60500 3860 10300 189000 12400 247000 190000 240000 49800 32600 38300 23500 58200 1052000 103000 246000 64000 406000 46300 208000 176000 263000 29300 580000 98000 188000 2223000 30500 15100 47400 175000 30400 45700 10000 10600 90900 59300 25100 3660 136000 42700 12100 13300 49800 107000 64600 62900 32200 15900 21700 52000 17700 5540 168000 9590 12800 389000 43900 9700 7030 85300 14700 23500 6230 33900 107000 13700 57600 27400 24400
2020-06-24 303000 1224000 60500 3910 10300 189000 12400 247000 190000 240000 49800 32800 38400 23500 59000 1066000 103000 251000 65200 411000 47100 210000 179000 266000 29500 583000 100000 188000 2229000 30900 15500 48200 176000 30500 45800 10000 10700 92100 59400 25100 3660 137000 42900 12100 13300 49800 107000 64800 62900 32300 15900 21800 52900 17800 5560 169000 9630 12900 389000 44100 9800 7130 85300 14800 24000 6260 34000 109000 13800 57900 27400 24600
2020-06-25 303000 1224000 60500 4000 10300 190000 12400 247000 190000 240000 49800 33300 38400 23500 60000 1082000 103000 254000 66300 417000 47900 211000 182000 269000 29700 586000 102000 188000 2233000 31500 15800 49100 179000 30600 45800 10000 10700 93500 59500 25200 3660 137000 43000 12200 13400 49800 107000 65000 63000 32400 16000 21900 53600 17900 5570 169000 9660 13100 389000 44200 9900 7220 85400 14800 24400 6270 34400 110000 14000 58100 27400 24700
2020-06-26 304000 1224000 60500 4050 10300 190000 12500 247000 190000 240000 49900 33700 38400 23500 60500 1095000 103000 257000 67300 422000 48600 212000 183000 272000 29900 588000 104000 188000 2235000 31900 16100 49900 181000 30700 45800 10000 10700 94300 59700 25300 3660 137000 43200 12200 13400 49800 107000 65200 63100 32500 16000 22000 54100 17900 5590 169000 9690 13300 389000 44300 10100 7310 85400 14800 24900 6280 34600 111000 14200 58300 27400 24800

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in Europe 2020-06-17

UKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSENOCH
Peak date04-1004-1203-2604-1506-1003-2503-3104-0204-0303-3004-0604-1204-0203-2704-1004-1303-2104-0906-0604-0104-1106-0303-2703-23
Peak daily increment 5770 30087 887 1447 90 282 275 5959 327 8110 173 11810 93 74 122 961 5735 1161 477 846 384 1332 295 1184
Days from 100 to peak 36 49 18 39 83 11 18 32 25 28 24 42 22 8 20 30 27 34 83 19 28 88 21 18
Days from peak/2 to peak 22 33 13 31 86 10 17 20 24 17 24 27 25 12 22 24 17 28 80 14 25 82 20 12
Last total 299251 1215017 17203 60244 3542 7840 10162 188604 12294 244683 7117 189906 3203 2258 4078 25341 237828 49204 30701 37672 22760 54562 8692 31187
Last daily increment 1115 4286 14 89 89 14 51 352 44 355 5 311 55 3 1 7 328 117 506 336 345 1239 32 33
Last week 7842 22385 169 533 456 71 307 1913 259 1976 53 1552 115 9 39 103 1686 953 2500 1762 1578 6274 84 143
Days since peak 68 66 83 63 7 84 78 76 75 79 72 66 76 82 68 65 88 69 11 77 67 14 82 86

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed 2020-06-17

AustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-RIUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WV
Peak date03-2806-1004-22 -- -- --06-1003-3006-1105-3105-2905-07 --04-1104-0906-1306-12 -- --04-2404-2205-0104-26 -- --05-0204-0205-0304-2705-0505-0504-0404-2405-1905-2204-0405-2204-06 --06-1205-2105-0105-0104-0705-02 --04-0804-20 -- --04-0805-1106-1305-09 -- -- --05-2604-0205-2905-24
Peak daily increment 407 27400 1883 1082 3183 4363 6839 779 11137 4649 32598 866 483 615 1192 201 245 588 138 2691 730 298 253 1725 3073 1188 59 1650 723 276 1329 83 448 100 4453 172 10062 1091 1743 747 740 162 1215 452 500 52
Days from 100 to peak 18 88 42 87 33 85 75 76 51 23 36 85 80 40 34 40 32 40 8 48 37 42 42 19 42 61 60 18 63 15 85 52 33 37 23 38 30 32 22 47 85 39 68 26 72 56
Days from peak/2 to peak 14 64 33 79 27 66 53 67 31 17 20 79 78 35 29 40 31 34 9 40 33 40 41 13 30 54 64 13 56 14 78 57 29 41 15 39 19 27 15 40 80 41 59 22 69 61
Last total 7391 955377 101491 220628 55083 366946 41431 195051 159793 240908 27238 552549 80412 182727 2163290 26914 13215 40937 162798 29656 45084 9847 10430 82614 56063 24455 3632 134083 41013 11644 12981 48176 105788 62969 2835 62218 31237 15267 20641 46934 3166 17055 5433 167579 9316 11854 385142 42422 8904 6218 84289 14524 20551 6050 31499 97699 12661 55775 26759 23456 2376
Last daily increment 21 32188 404 36179 1872 12881 1031 2612 4930 3752 457 7824 4078 1429 25559 390 420 1752 3837 229 75 29 43 2602 1231 281 170 604 227 233 345 863 267 560 19 218 410 173 489 1027 42 193 73 294 94 171 567 412 259 120 311 0 561 84 363 4130 296 444 275 258 36
Last week 102 152549 2332 66536 11273 69411 6136 14895 25819 26120 3063 50749 21844 8704 139700 4440 2701 9670 19421 1024 916 258 337 13641 4750 1490 372 3646 2265 821 1043 3918 1480 2772 170 1109 2004 979 2158 7350 186 920 228 1995 576 1381 4250 2418 1278 981 2441 447 4110 385 3764 15041 1537 3128 2000 1530 159
Days since peak 81 7 56 7 79 6 17 19 41 67 69 4 5 54 56 47 52 46 76 45 51 43 43 74 54 29 26 74 26 72 5 27 47 47 71 46 70 58 70 37 4 39 22 76 19 24

Initial visual evaluation of forecasts of Confirmed