COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2020-06-20


Disclaimer

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. The documentation that is provided is still in progress and not peer reviewed. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.

Recent changes

[2020-03-24] Our forecasts are starting to overestimate in some cases. This was always expected to happen when the increase starts to slow down. Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, but only for Italy and Spain sofar.
[2020-03-26] Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, only for Italy.
[2020-03-31] Scenario forecasts, based on what happened in China earlier this year, are presented for several countries (line marked with x). Created more plausible 90% confidence bands (dotted line in same colour).
[2020-04-02] Now including more US States, based on New York Times data. And the world.
[2020-04-06] Added a post hoc estimate of the peak number of cases. This needs at least three confirmed observations (four for deaths) after the event. It is based on the averaged smooth trend, and can change later or be a local peak. It is marked with a vertical line with the date label, or a date with left arrow in the bottom left corner of the graph. This is backported to 2020-04-04.
[2020-04-08] Minor correction to peak estimates. Added table with scenario forecasts.
[2020-04-09] Added table with estimated peak dates (if happened) and dates to and since the peak. Note that this can be a local peak, and subsequent re-acceleration (or data revisions) can result in a new peak later.
[2020-04-10] Updated documentation with better description of short-term estimates and peak determination.
[2020-04-16] Added scenario forecasts to all graphs now. This would now be the preferred forecast for most.
This is the first time with a peak in confirmed UK cases (also for deaths, but this is uncertain because it is at the same date).
[2020-04-17] Bird and Nielsen look into nowcasting death counts in England.
[2020-04-24] A summary of our work on short-term COVID-19 forecasting appeared as a voxeu.
[2020-04-27] Our short-term COVID-19 forecasting paper is now available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06.
A small adjustment has been made to the scenario forecast methodology, and will be documented shortly.
[2020-04-29] See our blog entry at the International Institute of Forecasters.
US history of death counts revised in Johns Hopkins/CSSE data.
UK death counts have been revised to include the deaths in care homes. In the Johns Hopkins/CSSE data set, which we use, the entire history has been revised. So forecasts made up to 2020-04-29 cannot be compared to later outcomes. In the ECDC data set only the last observation has changed, causing a jump in the series.
[2020-05-06] The New York Times is in the process of redefining its US state data. Unfortunately, at the moment only the last observation has changed (e.g New York deaths jumped from 19645 on 2020-05-05 to 25956 a day later). This means the data is currently useless; however it does bring it close to the Johns Hopkins/CSSE count (25626 on 2020-05-06). The aggregate US count is based on JH/CSSE so unaffected. We now use Johns Hopkins/CSSE US state data, including all states with sufficient counts. So the new forecasts cannot be compared to those previously.
A minor change is that we show the graph without scenario forecast if no peak has been detected yet.
[2020-05-13] We now omit countries with fewer than 200 confirmed cases in the last week (25 for deaths).
The short-term paper has some small updates, including further comparisons with other models.
Data for Ecuador are not reliable enough for forecasting.
Switched to an improved version of scenario forecasting.
[2020-05-18] Minor fixes to the improved version of scenario forecasting, backported to 2020-05-13.
[2020-05-20] Problem with UK confirmed cases: negative daily count. This makes the forecasts temporarily unreliable.
Updated the second paper.
[2020-06-04] Data issues with confirmed cases for France.
Added an appendix to the short term paper with further forecast comparisons for European and Latin American countries.
Both Sweden and Iran have lost their peak in confirmed cases. For Sweden the previous peak was on 24 April (daily peak of 656 cases), for Iran it was on 31 March (peak of 3116). For Iran this looks like a second wave, with increasing daily counts for the last four weeks. For Sweden this is a sudden jump in confirmed cases in the last two days, compared to a fairly steady weekly pattern over the previous six weeks.
[2020-06-06] Removed Brazil from yesterday's forecasts (last observation 2020-06-05).

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Confirmed count average forecast Europe (bold black line in graphs) 2020-06-21 to 2020-06-27

DateUKEUATBEBGCZDEESFRITNLPLPTROSE
2020-06-20 303110 1226218 17323 60550 3872 10448 190670 245938 191112 238275 49502 31620 38841 23730 56043
2020-06-21 304000 1229000 17300 60600 3980 10500 191000 246000 191000 238000 49600 31900 39000 23900 56500
2020-06-22 305000 1231000 17400 60700 4100 10500 191000 247000 191000 239000 49700 32200 39300 24200 57300
2020-06-23 306000 1234000 17400 60800 4220 10600 192000 247000 191000 239000 49800 32600 39600 24400 58100
2020-06-24 308000 1236000 17400 60900 4350 10600 192000 247000 192000 239000 50000 32900 39900 24700 58900
2020-06-25 309000 1238000 17500 61000 4480 10700 193000 248000 192000 239000 50100 33200 40200 25000 59700
2020-06-26 310000 1240000 17500 61100 4620 10800 193000 248000 192000 239000 50200 33600 40500 25300 60500
2020-06-27 311000 1242000 17500 61200 4760 10800 194000 248000 192000 239000 50300 33900 40800 25500 61300

Confirmed count average forecast (bold black line in graphs) 2020-06-21 to 2020-06-27

DateBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-NCUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-RIUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WV
2020-06-20 1032913 102762 236748 63454 410451 45029 202584 175202 251338 29400 576162 92681 186493 2255119 29126 14582 50127 175213 30333 45439 9984 10662 93680 58819 25491 4004 136049 42061 12097 13609 49377 106582 63956 63240 32399 16142 20641 51390 17520 5517 168685 9608 12976 387272 44261 10038 6572 85590 14524 23756 6225 33709 109581 13982 57443 28163 24539 2500
2020-06-21 1053000 103000 243000 65100 428000 46400 205000 181000 253000 29500 584000 97000 188000 2267000 29500 15000 51500 180000 30400 45500 10000 10700 97000 60200 25600 4100 136000 42300 12200 13700 49600 107000 64300 63300 32500 16500 20700 53000 17700 5550 169000 9600 13300 388000 44500 10400 6680 85800 14500 24400 6270 34600 114000 14300 57600 28300 24700 2520
2020-06-22 1079000 103000 255000 68000 448000 48000 207000 188000 256000 29800 592000 102000 189000 2287000 30000 15600 54000 186000 30600 45600 10000 10700 102000 61900 25800 4200 137000 42600 12300 13800 49900 107000 64700 63500 32800 16900 20900 54800 17800 5580 169000 9700 13600 389000 44900 10700 6820 86200 14500 25400 6320 35700 119000 14800 58100 28500 24900 2540
2020-06-23 1106000 104000 268000 70900 468000 49700 210000 196000 259000 30300 599000 107000 190000 2310000 30400 16100 57000 193000 30800 45700 10100 10800 106000 63600 26000 4330 137000 42900 12500 14000 50300 107000 65000 63700 33100 17300 21100 56600 18000 5610 170000 9800 14100 389000 45300 11100 6970 86600 14500 26400 6380 36800 124000 15200 58500 28800 25200 2570
2020-06-24 1134000 104000 281000 74100 490000 51400 212000 204000 262000 30800 607000 112000 191000 2332000 30900 16700 60000 199000 31000 45900 10100 10800 110000 65400 26300 4460 138000 43200 12600 14100 50700 107000 65400 63900 33400 17700 21300 58600 18100 5650 170000 9900 14500 390000 45800 11600 7120 86900 14500 27500 6430 37900 129000 15700 58900 29200 25400 2600
2020-06-25 1162000 104000 295000 77300 513000 53200 215000 212000 265000 31300 615000 118000 193000 2354000 31500 17300 63200 206000 31200 46000 10200 10900 115000 67300 26500 4600 138000 43500 12800 14300 51100 108000 65800 64100 33700 18200 21400 60600 18300 5680 170000 9900 14900 391000 46200 12000 7270 87300 14500 28600 6490 39100 135000 16200 59400 29500 25700 2630
2020-06-26 1192000 105000 310000 80700 537000 55000 217000 220000 268000 31800 624000 124000 194000 2377000 32100 17900 66600 212000 31300 46100 10200 11000 120000 69200 26700 4740 139000 43800 12900 14500 51600 108000 66200 64300 34000 18600 21600 62600 18400 5710 171000 10000 15400 391000 46700 12400 7430 87700 14500 29800 6540 40300 141000 16800 59800 29900 26000 2660
2020-06-27 1222000 105000 326000 84300 562000 56900 220000 229000 272000 32300 632000 130000 195000 2399000 32700 18500 70200 219000 31500 46200 10200 11000 125000 71200 27000 4890 139000 44100 13100 14600 52000 108000 66500 64600 34300 19100 21800 64800 18600 5750 171000 10100 15800 392000 47100 12900 7590 88100 14600 31100 6600 41600 147000 17300 60300 30200 26200 2690

Confirmed count forecast Europe (bold red line in graphs) 2020-06-21 to 2020-06-27

DateUKEUATBEBGCZDEESFRITNLPLPTROSE
2020-06-20 303110 1226218 17323 60550 3872 10448 190670 245938 191112 238275 49502 31620 38841 23730 56043
2020-06-21 304000 1230000 17400 60600 4010 10500 191000 246000 192000 239000 49600 31900 39200 24000 56700
2020-06-22 305000 1233000 17400 60700 4140 10600 192000 247000 192000 239000 49700 32100 39500 24300 57200
2020-06-23 307000 1236000 17500 60800 4280 10700 192000 247000 192000 239000 49800 32400 39800 24600 57600
2020-06-24 308000 1238000 17500 60900 4430 10700 193000 247000 192000 239000 49900 32700 40200 24800 58100
2020-06-25 309000 1240000 17500 61000 4570 10800 193000 248000 193000 240000 50000 32900 40500 25100 58600
2020-06-26 310000 1242000 17600 61100 4730 10900 194000 248000 193000 240000 50100 33200 40800 25400 59100
2020-06-27 311000 1244000 17600 61200 4890 10900 194000 249000 193000 240000 50200 33500 41200 25700 59600

Confirmed count forecast (bold red line in graphs) 2020-06-21 to 2020-06-27

DateBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-NCUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-RIUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WV
2020-06-20 1032913 102762 236748 63454 410451 45029 202584 175202 251338 29400 576162 92681 186493 2255119 29126 14582 50127 175213 30333 45439 9984 10662 93680 58819 25491 4004 136049 42061 12097 13609 49377 106582 63956 63240 32399 16142 20641 51390 17520 5517 168685 9608 12976 387272 44261 10038 6572 85590 14524 23756 6225 33709 109581 13982 57443 28163 24539 2500
2020-06-21 1057000 103000 239000 66300 429000 46600 205000 181000 254000 29800 584000 97000 188000 2282000 29700 15100 53400 181000 30500 45600 10000 10700 98000 60500 25700 4160 137000 42400 12200 13800 49800 107000 64300 63500 32700 16600 20800 53300 17700 5550 169000 9700 13400 388000 44800 10400 6640 86000 14500 24800 6280 34800 115000 14500 57900 28500 24800 2530
2020-06-22 1078000 104000 244000 69500 448000 48300 207000 188000 258000 30300 591000 101000 189000 2308000 30300 15700 56700 187000 30700 45700 10100 10800 103000 62100 26000 4310 137000 42700 12400 13900 50300 107000 64700 63800 33000 17100 21000 55400 17800 5580 169000 9800 13800 389000 45300 10800 6700 86300 14500 25900 6330 35800 120000 15000 58400 28900 25100 2570
2020-06-23 1102000 104000 249000 72900 468000 50000 210000 195000 261000 30900 599000 105000 190000 2334000 30800 16300 60200 194000 30900 45800 10100 10900 107000 63800 26200 4470 138000 42900 12500 14100 50700 107000 65000 64000 33400 17500 21100 57500 17900 5610 170000 9900 14300 389000 45800 11100 6770 86700 14500 27000 6380 36800 125000 15600 58800 29300 25400 2600
2020-06-24 1125000 104000 254000 76400 490000 51700 212000 202000 265000 31400 607000 110000 191000 2358000 31400 17000 63800 201000 31100 45900 10100 10900 112000 65600 26500 4630 138000 43200 12700 14300 51200 108000 65400 64300 33700 18000 21200 59700 18100 5640 170000 9900 14700 390000 46200 11500 6840 87100 14500 28100 6430 37900 131000 16100 59300 29700 25700 2630
2020-06-25 1148000 105000 259000 80100 513000 53600 214000 209000 268000 32000 614000 115000 192000 2383000 32000 17600 67600 208000 31300 46000 10200 11000 117000 67400 26700 4800 139000 43500 12800 14400 51700 108000 65700 64600 34000 18600 21300 62000 18200 5660 170000 10000 15200 391000 46700 12000 6910 87500 14500 29300 6490 39100 137000 16700 59800 30100 26000 2660
2020-06-26 1172000 105000 264000 84000 537000 55500 217000 217000 272000 32500 622000 120000 194000 2408000 32600 18300 71600 215000 31500 46100 10200 11000 123000 69300 27000 4970 139000 43800 12900 14600 52100 108000 66100 64800 34300 19100 21400 64400 18300 5690 171000 10100 15800 391000 47200 12400 6980 87800 14500 30600 6540 40200 143000 17300 60300 30500 26300 2700
2020-06-27 1197000 105000 269000 88100 561000 57500 219000 225000 275000 33100 630000 125000 195000 2433000 33200 19000 75900 222000 31700 46200 10300 11100 129000 71200 27200 5160 139000 44100 13100 14800 52600 108000 66400 65100 34600 19600 21600 66900 18500 5720 171000 10200 16300 392000 47700 12800 7060 88200 14500 31900 6590 41400 150000 17900 60700 30900 26600 2730

Confirmed count scenario forecast (bold purple line in graphs) 2020-06-21 to 2020-06-29

DateUKEUATBEBGCZDEESFRITNLPLPTROSEBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-NCUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-RIUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WV
2020-06-20 303110 1226218 17323 60550 3872 10448 190670 245938 191112 238275 49502 31620 38841 23730 56043 1032913 102762 236748 63454 410451 45029 202584 175202 251338 29400 576162 92681 186493 2255119 29126 14582 50127 175213 30333 45439 9984 10662 93680 58819 25491 4004 136049 42061 12097 13609 49377 106582 63956 63240 32399 16142 20641 51390 17520 5517 168685 9608 12976 387272 44261 10038 6572 85590 14524 23756 6225 33709 109581 13982 57443 28163 24539 2500
2020-06-21 304000 1230000 17300 60600 3980 10500 191000 246000 191000 238000 49600 31900 39100 23900 56800 1062000 103000 246000 64400 421000 46100 206000 179000 253000 29700 582000 96000 187000 2293000 29800 15000 51500 179000 30500 45500 10000 10700 96000 60000 25600 4090 136000 42300 12200 13700 49500 107000 64200 63400 32500 16400 20900 52300 17700 5540 169000 9700 13300 388000 44600 10300 6810 85800 14600 24400 6260 34700 112000 14300 57700 28400 24700 2530
2020-06-22 305000 1233000 17400 60700 4100 10600 192000 247000 191000 239000 49700 32100 39500 24200 57200 1087000 103000 257000 65800 430000 47200 208000 182000 256000 30100 587000 100000 188000 2318000 30400 15300 54700 182000 30700 45600 10000 10700 98000 61000 25800 4160 137000 42600 12400 13800 49500 107000 64500 63800 32800 16600 21000 53400 17800 5570 169000 9700 13500 388000 44900 10500 6930 86000 14600 25300 6290 35300 114000 14700 58000 29000 25000 2560
2020-06-23 305000 1236000 17400 60800 4200 10700 193000 247000 191000 239000 49700 32400 39800 24400 57500 1107000 104000 262000 66700 438000 48100 211000 184000 258000 30600 592000 103000 189000 2346000 31100 15600 56300 185000 30900 45600 10100 10800 101000 62000 25900 4220 137000 42700 12500 14000 49700 107000 64800 64100 33000 16700 21100 54200 17900 5590 169000 9800 13900 389000 45200 10600 7070 86100 14600 26300 6330 35700 115000 15000 58400 29200 25200 2590
2020-06-24 305000 1239000 17500 60800 4300 10700 193000 247000 191000 239000 49800 32600 40100 24500 57900 1121000 104000 271000 67500 445000 49100 214000 186000 260000 30900 596000 107000 190000 2358000 31500 15900 58600 188000 31000 45700 10100 10800 102000 62600 26100 4340 138000 42900 12600 14100 49800 107000 65000 64400 33200 16900 21200 55200 18100 5620 169000 9900 14200 389000 45500 10700 7170 86200 14600 27200 6360 36100 117000 15200 58700 29400 25400 2610
2020-06-25 305000 1241000 17500 60900 4410 10800 194000 248000 191000 239000 49800 32800 40400 24700 58100 1138000 104000 279000 68100 451000 49900 217000 188000 262000 31300 600000 111000 190000 2370000 32300 16100 61800 191000 31100 45700 10100 10800 103000 63400 26300 4440 138000 43000 12700 14200 49800 107000 65200 64800 33500 17000 21200 56100 18200 5640 170000 9900 14500 389000 45800 10800 7230 86300 14600 27600 6380 36400 117000 15600 59000 29600 25500 2640
2020-06-26 306000 1243000 17500 60900 4500 10800 194000 248000 192000 239000 49800 33100 40600 24700 58500 1150000 104000 285000 68500 454000 50500 219000 189000 263000 31600 603000 114000 191000 2376000 33200 16400 63900 194000 31200 45800 10100 10800 104000 64000 26400 4470 139000 43100 12800 14400 49800 108000 65400 65000 33700 17000 21300 56700 18300 5670 170000 10000 14600 389000 45900 10800 7300 86400 14700 28200 6410 36900 118000 15700 59400 29700 25600 2670
2020-06-27 306000 1244000 17500 61000 4570 10900 194000 248000 192000 239000 49800 33300 40800 24700 58800 1166000 105000 293000 68700 460000 51400 221000 190000 265000 32100 607000 117000 191000 2380000 33900 16600 65800 195000 31300 45800 10200 10800 104000 64300 26500 4600 139000 43100 12900 14400 49800 108000 65500 65300 33900 17000 21400 57500 18300 5690 170000 10000 14800 390000 46100 10900 7350 86400 14700 28500 6430 37100 119000 15900 59700 29700 25700 2690
2020-06-28 306000 1244000 17600 61000 4660 10900 195000 249000 192000 239000 49800 33500 41100 24700 59000 1175000 105000 301000 69200 465000 52300 222000 192000 267000 32500 610000 122000 192000 2380000 34700 16900 67600 197000 31400 45900 10200 10800 105000 65100 26600 4690 139000 43200 12900 14500 49800 108000 65700 65400 34100 17000 21500 58500 18400 5710 170000 10100 14800 390000 46200 10900 7440 86500 14700 29000 6450 37300 119000 16100 60000 29700 25900 2710
2020-06-29 306000 1245000 17600 61000 4720 10900 195000 249000 192000 239000 49800 33600 41200 24700 59300 1183000 105000 309000 69800 470000 53100 223000 194000 268000 32800 612000 125000 192000 2380000 35200 17200 69400 200000 31400 45900 10200 10800 106000 65600 26700 4690 139000 43300 13000 14600 49800 108000 65900 65500 34200 17000 21600 59500 18500 5730 170000 10100 14800 390000 46400 11000 7520 86500 14700 29600 6470 37300 120000 16400 60100 29700 26000 2720

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in Europe 2020-06-20

UKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSENOCH
Peak date04-1004-1203-2604-15 --03-2503-3104-0204-0303-3004-0604-1204-0203-2704-1004-1303-2104-0906-0604-0104-1106-0303-2703-23
Peak daily increment 5769 30088 887 1447 282 275 5959 327 8110 173 11811 93 74 122 961 5734 1161 480 847 384 1371 295 1184
Days from 100 to peak 36 49 18 39 11 18 32 25 28 24 42 22 8 20 30 27 34 83 19 28 88 21 18
Days from peak/2 to peak 22 33 13 31 10 17 20 24 17 24 27 25 12 22 24 17 28 80 14 25 82 20 12
Last total 303110 1226218 17323 60550 3872 7881 10448 190670 12391 245938 7142 191112 3256 2299 4086 25374 238275 49502 31620 38841 23730 56043 8742 31243
Last daily increment 1295 2893 52 74 117 11 42 371 0 363 9 436 19 19 5 6 264 76 304 377 330 0 16 8
Last week 7221 21626 214 521 582 70 424 3152 198 2010 38 1510 135 47 17 71 1286 719 2228 2151 1731 4429 111 126
Days since peak 71 69 86 66 87 81 79 78 82 75 69 79 85 71 68 91 72 14 80 70 17 85 89

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed 2020-06-20

AustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-RIUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WV
Peak date03-28 --04-2206-17 -- -- --03-30 --05-3105-2905-07 --04-1104-0906-13 -- -- --04-2404-2205-0104-26 -- --05-02 --05-0304-2705-0505-0504-0404-2405-1905-2204-0405-22 --05-30 --05-2105-0105-0104-0705-02 --04-0804-20 --06-1604-0805-11 --05-09 -- -- --05-26 --05-2905-24
Peak daily increment 407 1883 23975 3183 6759 779 11137 4649 32600 844 615 1192 201 245 588 2691 730 298 253 1725 3073 1188 59 1650 723 346 83 448 100 4453 172 10062 1091 188 1744 747 162 1215 500 52
Days from 100 to peak 18 42 93 33 75 76 51 23 36 85 40 34 40 32 40 48 37 42 42 19 42 61 60 18 63 70 52 33 37 23 38 30 32 88 22 47 39 68 72 56
Days from peak/2 to peak 14 33 54 27 53 67 31 17 20 79 35 29 40 31 34 40 33 40 41 13 30 54 64 13 56 69 57 29 41 15 39 19 27 88 15 40 41 59 69 61
Last total 7461 1032913 102762 236748 63454 410451 45029 202584 175202 251338 29400 576162 92681 186493 2255119 29126 14582 50127 175213 30333 45439 9984 10662 93680 58819 25491 4004 136049 42061 12097 13609 49377 106582 63956 2936 63240 32399 16142 20641 51390 3251 17520 5517 168685 9608 12976 387272 44261 10038 6572 85590 14524 23756 6225 33709 109581 13982 57443 28163 24539 2500
Last daily increment 50 0 448 5355 3067 15403 1226 2322 4717 6950 941 7870 4966 1248 32540 543 484 3217 4351 161 155 32 68 4045 588 226 133 632 315 76 176 865 285 408 24 435 425 348 0 1605 25 108 32 349 106 452 716 530 331 0 391 0 1148 67 462 4187 493 650 587 385 32
Last week 126 165289 2358 62455 14558 78027 6752 15157 28365 21602 3470 47895 22643 8254 161061 3891 2421 14421 22913 1218 621 217 412 18214 5620 1570 605 3674 2152 996 1175 3051 1342 2255 145 1529 1984 1571 1125 7126 171 970 204 2000 564 1775 3948 3113 1807 936 2387 447 4961 327 3981 21058 2086 2937 2377 1781 210
Days since peak 84 59 3 82 20 22 44 70 72 7 57 59 50 55 49 48 54 46 46 77 57 32 29 77 29 21 30 50 50 74 49 73 61 4 73 40 42 25 22 27

Initial visual evaluation of forecasts of Confirmed