COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2020-06-24


Disclaimer

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. The documentation that is provided is still in progress and not peer reviewed. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.

Recent changes

[2020-03-24] Our forecasts are starting to overestimate in some cases. This was always expected to happen when the increase starts to slow down. Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, but only for Italy and Spain sofar.
[2020-03-26] Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, only for Italy.
[2020-03-31] Scenario forecasts, based on what happened in China earlier this year, are presented for several countries (line marked with x). Created more plausible 90% confidence bands (dotted line in same colour).
[2020-04-02] Now including more US States, based on New York Times data. And the world.
[2020-04-06] Added a post hoc estimate of the peak number of cases. This needs at least three confirmed observations (four for deaths) after the event. It is based on the averaged smooth trend, and can change later or be a local peak. It is marked with a vertical line with the date label, or a date with left arrow in the bottom left corner of the graph. This is backported to 2020-04-04.
[2020-04-08] Minor correction to peak estimates. Added table with scenario forecasts.
[2020-04-09] Added table with estimated peak dates (if happened) and dates to and since the peak. Note that this can be a local peak, and subsequent re-acceleration (or data revisions) can result in a new peak later.
[2020-04-10] Updated documentation with better description of short-term estimates and peak determination.
[2020-04-16] Added scenario forecasts to all graphs now. This would now be the preferred forecast for most.
This is the first time with a peak in confirmed UK cases (also for deaths, but this is uncertain because it is at the same date).
[2020-04-17] Bird and Nielsen look into nowcasting death counts in England.
[2020-04-24] A summary of our work on short-term COVID-19 forecasting appeared as a voxeu.
[2020-04-27] Our short-term COVID-19 forecasting paper is now available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06.
A small adjustment has been made to the scenario forecast methodology, and will be documented shortly.
[2020-04-29] See our blog entry at the International Institute of Forecasters.
US history of death counts revised in Johns Hopkins/CSSE data.
UK death counts have been revised to include the deaths in care homes. In the Johns Hopkins/CSSE data set, which we use, the entire history has been revised. So forecasts made up to 2020-04-29 cannot be compared to later outcomes. In the ECDC data set only the last observation has changed, causing a jump in the series.
[2020-05-06] The New York Times is in the process of redefining its US state data. Unfortunately, at the moment only the last observation has changed (e.g New York deaths jumped from 19645 on 2020-05-05 to 25956 a day later). This means the data is currently useless; however it does bring it close to the Johns Hopkins/CSSE count (25626 on 2020-05-06). The aggregate US count is based on JH/CSSE so unaffected. We now use Johns Hopkins/CSSE US state data, including all states with sufficient counts. So the new forecasts cannot be compared to those previously.
A minor change is that we show the graph without scenario forecast if no peak has been detected yet.
[2020-05-13] We now omit countries with fewer than 200 confirmed cases in the last week (25 for deaths).
The short-term paper has some small updates, including further comparisons with other models.
Data for Ecuador are not reliable enough for forecasting.
Switched to an improved version of scenario forecasting.
[2020-05-18] Minor fixes to the improved version of scenario forecasting, backported to 2020-05-13.
[2020-05-20] Problem with UK confirmed cases: negative daily count. This makes the forecasts temporarily unreliable.
Updated the second paper.
[2020-06-04] Data issues with confirmed cases for France.
Added an appendix to the short term paper with further forecast comparisons for European and Latin American countries.
Both Sweden and Iran have lost their peak in confirmed cases. For Sweden the previous peak was on 24 April (daily peak of 656 cases), for Iran it was on 31 March (peak of 3116). For Iran this looks like a second wave, with increasing daily counts for the last four weeks. For Sweden this is a sudden jump in confirmed cases in the last two days, compared to a fairly steady weekly pattern over the previous six weeks.
[2020-06-06] Removed Brazil from yesterday's forecasts (only; last observation 2020-06-05).
[2020-06-24] Research presentation on short-term COVID-19 forecasting on 26 June (14:00 UK time) at the Quarterly Forecasting Forum of the IIF UK Chapter.

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Confirmed count average forecast Europe (bold black line in graphs) 2020-06-25 to 2020-07-01

DateUKEUATBEBGCZDEDKESFRITNLPLPTROSE
2020-06-24 306862 1242987 17449 60898 4242 10777 192871 12615 247086 191543 239410 49804 32821 40104 24826 62324
2020-06-25 308000 1245000 17500 61000 4320 10800 193000 12600 247000 192000 240000 49900 33100 40300 25000 62500
2020-06-26 309000 1247000 17500 61000 4430 10800 194000 12700 248000 192000 240000 50000 33300 40600 25300 63000
2020-06-27 310000 1250000 17600 61100 4550 10900 194000 12700 248000 192000 240000 50000 33600 40900 25500 63400
2020-06-28 311000 1252000 17600 61200 4670 11000 195000 12800 248000 192000 240000 50100 33900 41200 25800 63900
2020-06-29 312000 1254000 17600 61300 4790 11000 196000 12800 249000 192000 240000 50200 34200 41500 26100 64600
2020-06-30 313000 1256000 17700 61400 4920 11100 196000 12800 249000 192000 240000 50300 34400 41800 26300 65400
2020-07-01 314000 1257000 17700 61500 5050 11200 197000 12900 249000 192000 240000 50400 34700 42100 26600 66200

Confirmed count average forecast (bold black line in graphs) 2020-06-25 to 2020-07-01

DateBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-NCUS-NEUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-RIUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WV
2020-06-24 1188631 104087 254416 73760 473105 49009 212501 196847 264689 32295 606043 111796 191657 2381361 31624 16644 60190 195925 31139 45653 10128 10870 108884 65041 26464 4401 138494 43140 12930 14349 52469 107262 65337 64201 33683 17066 23424 56527 18038 169800 10105 13528 389666 46759 11510 7444 87685 14945 27897 6419 36360 128132 15305 59514 29826 25763 2629
2020-06-25 1203000 104000 259000 75500 493000 49800 215000 204000 267000 33200 613000 117000 192000 2435000 31800 17000 63300 202000 31300 45700 10200 10900 113000 66400 26600 4530 139000 43400 13000 14400 52600 107000 65600 64400 34000 17200 24000 57500 18200 170000 10100 13600 390000 47100 11900 7590 88000 15000 29000 6460 36600 133000 15700 60000 30100 25900 2650
2020-06-26 1233000 105000 264000 78300 515000 50700 217000 211000 270000 34300 621000 123000 194000 2508000 32300 17600 66800 210000 31400 45800 10200 11000 118000 68300 26900 4680 139000 43700 13000 14600 52900 108000 66000 64600 34300 17500 24700 58700 18300 170000 10200 13800 391000 47700 12300 7760 88300 15000 30300 6500 37100 139000 16200 60400 30500 26200 2680
2020-06-27 1264000 105000 269000 81200 539000 51700 219000 219000 273000 35300 628000 129000 195000 2584000 32800 18200 70500 217000 31600 45900 10200 11000 123000 70400 27100 4840 140000 43900 13200 14700 53200 108000 66300 64900 34600 17700 25400 59900 18400 171000 10300 14100 392000 48200 12800 7930 88800 15100 31600 6550 37600 145000 16700 60900 30900 26500 2710
2020-06-28 1296000 105000 274000 84300 564000 52700 222000 228000 276000 36500 635000 135000 196000 2663000 33400 18800 74400 224000 31800 45900 10300 11100 128000 72500 27400 5000 140000 44200 13300 14800 53600 108000 66600 65100 34900 17900 26200 61200 18500 171000 10400 14300 392000 48800 13300 8110 89200 15200 33000 6600 38100 152000 17300 61400 31300 26800 2740
2020-06-29 1329000 106000 279000 87400 590000 53700 224000 237000 279000 37600 643000 142000 197000 2744000 34000 19500 78500 232000 32000 46000 10300 11100 134000 74700 27600 5160 141000 44500 13400 15000 54100 108000 67000 65400 35200 18200 27000 62500 18600 171000 10500 14500 393000 49300 13800 8280 89600 15200 34400 6640 38700 158000 17800 61900 31700 27100 2770
2020-06-30 1364000 106000 285000 90800 617000 54700 226000 246000 282000 38800 651000 149000 198000 2827000 34500 20200 82800 240000 32200 46100 10300 11200 139000 76900 27900 5340 141000 44700 13500 15200 54700 108000 67300 65600 35500 18400 27800 63800 18800 172000 10600 14700 394000 49900 14300 8470 90100 15300 35900 6690 39300 166000 18400 62400 32100 27400 2800
2020-07-01 1398000 106000 290000 94200 646000 55800 229000 255000 285000 40100 658000 156000 199000 2913000 35100 20900 87300 248000 32300 46200 10400 11300 146000 79300 28200 5520 141000 45000 13700 15300 55200 109000 67600 65900 35900 18600 28700 65200 18900 172000 10700 15000 394000 50500 14900 8660 90500 15400 37500 6740 39900 173000 19000 62900 32500 27700 2830

Confirmed count forecast Europe (bold red line in graphs) 2020-06-25 to 2020-07-01

DateUKEUATBEBGCZDEDKESFRITNLPLPTROSE
2020-06-24 306862 1242987 17449 60898 4242 10777 192871 12615 247086 191543 239410 49804 32821 40104 24826 62324
2020-06-25 308000 1247000 17500 61000 4340 10900 194000 12700 247000 192000 240000 49900 33100 40400 25100 63100
2020-06-26 309000 1250000 17500 61100 4460 10900 194000 12700 248000 192000 240000 50000 33300 40800 25400 64000
2020-06-27 310000 1253000 17600 61200 4580 11000 195000 12800 248000 192000 240000 50000 33600 41100 25600 64800
2020-06-28 311000 1256000 17600 61300 4700 11100 195000 12800 248000 192000 241000 50100 33900 41400 25900 65700
2020-06-29 312000 1258000 17600 61400 4830 11200 196000 12900 249000 192000 241000 50200 34100 41700 26200 66700
2020-06-30 313000 1260000 17700 61500 4960 11300 196000 12900 249000 192000 241000 50300 34400 42000 26500 67600
2020-07-01 314000 1262000 17700 61600 5090 11300 197000 13000 249000 192000 241000 50300 34600 42400 26800 68500

Confirmed count forecast (bold red line in graphs) 2020-06-25 to 2020-07-01

DateBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-NCUS-NEUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-RIUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WV
2020-06-24 1188631 104087 254416 73760 473105 49009 212501 196847 264689 32295 606043 111796 191657 2381361 31624 16644 60190 195925 31139 45653 10128 10870 108884 65041 26464 4401 138494 43140 12930 14349 52469 107262 65337 64201 33683 17066 23424 56527 18038 169800 10105 13528 389666 46759 11510 7444 87685 14945 27897 6419 36360 128132 15305 59514 29826 25763 2629
2020-06-25 1217000 104000 259000 74400 494000 49900 215000 204000 267000 33300 613000 116000 193000 2448000 32000 17200 63500 203000 31300 45700 10200 10900 114000 67200 26600 4570 139000 43400 13100 14500 52900 107000 65600 64500 33900 17200 24500 57900 18200 170000 10200 13700 390000 47300 12000 7600 88100 15000 29100 6470 36900 134000 15800 60000 30200 26000 2660
2020-06-26 1250000 105000 263000 75400 516000 50800 217000 212000 270000 34400 620000 122000 194000 2521000 32600 17800 66900 210000 31500 45800 10200 11000 120000 69500 26700 4730 140000 43600 13200 14700 53500 108000 66000 64700 34200 17300 25400 59200 18300 170000 10300 13800 391000 47900 12600 7760 88600 15100 30400 6510 37500 141000 16300 60500 30600 26300 2700
2020-06-27 1284000 105000 267000 76400 539000 51700 220000 220000 273000 35400 627000 127000 195000 2594000 33200 18500 70500 218000 31700 45800 10200 11000 126000 72000 26900 4880 140000 43900 13400 14900 54100 108000 66300 65000 34400 17400 26400 60500 18400 171000 10400 13900 392000 48400 13100 7920 89100 15100 31800 6560 38100 147000 16800 61000 31000 26700 2730
2020-06-28 1318000 105000 270000 77400 563000 52700 222000 228000 276000 36500 634000 133000 196000 2673000 33800 19100 74200 225000 31900 45900 10300 11100 132000 74600 27000 5040 141000 44100 13600 15000 54700 108000 66600 65300 34700 17500 27500 61800 18500 171000 10600 14000 392000 49000 13700 8080 89500 15200 33200 6610 38800 154000 17300 61400 31400 27000 2760
2020-06-29 1353000 106000 274000 78400 589000 53600 225000 236000 279000 37700 641000 139000 198000 2755000 34400 19800 78100 234000 32100 45900 10300 11100 139000 77200 27100 5200 141000 44400 13800 15200 55300 108000 66900 65500 34900 17600 28500 63200 18600 171000 10700 14200 393000 49600 14300 8240 90000 15300 34600 6650 39400 162000 17900 61900 31800 27300 2800
2020-06-30 1390000 106000 277000 79500 615000 54600 227000 245000 282000 38800 649000 146000 199000 2838000 35000 20500 82200 242000 32300 46000 10300 11200 145000 80000 27300 5370 142000 44600 14000 15400 56000 108000 67200 65800 35200 17600 29700 64500 18700 172000 10800 14300 393000 50200 14900 8410 90500 15300 36100 6700 40000 169000 18500 62400 32200 27600 2830
2020-07-01 1427000 106000 281000 80600 643000 55600 230000 255000 284000 40000 656000 152000 200000 2925000 35600 21300 86500 251000 32500 46000 10400 11200 153000 82800 27400 5550 142000 44900 14200 15600 56600 109000 67600 66100 35400 17700 30800 65900 18900 172000 10900 14400 394000 50700 15600 8580 90900 15400 37700 6750 40700 177000 19100 62900 32600 27900 2870

Confirmed count scenario forecast (bold purple line in graphs) 2020-06-25 to 2020-07-03

DateUKEUATBEBGCZDEDKESFRITNLPLPTROSEBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-NCUS-NEUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-RIUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WV
2020-06-24 306862 1242987 17449 60898 4242 10777 192871 12615 247086 191543 239410 49804 32821 40104 24826 62324 1188631 104087 254416 73760 473105 49009 212501 196847 264689 32295 606043 111796 191657 2381361 31624 16644 60190 195925 31139 45653 10128 10870 108884 65041 26464 4401 138494 43140 12930 14349 52469 107262 65337 64201 33683 17066 23424 56527 18038 169800 10105 13528 389666 46759 11510 7444 87685 14945 27897 6419 36360 128132 15305 59514 29826 25763 2629
2020-06-25 308000 1246000 17500 61000 4330 10800 194000 12700 247000 192000 240000 49800 33000 40400 25000 62700 1217000 104000 261000 78100 488000 50200 215000 202000 266000 33100 612000 116000 192000 2435000 31800 17000 64000 201000 31300 45700 10200 10900 112000 66200 26800 4590 139000 43300 12900 14500 52600 107000 65600 64500 34000 17500 23800 57600 18100 170000 10200 13900 390000 47300 11900 7650 88000 15000 28900 6450 36700 132000 15800 59900 30400 25900 2650
2020-06-26 308000 1249000 17500 61100 4440 10900 194000 12700 248000 192000 240000 49900 33300 40600 25100 63300 1244000 105000 267000 80300 498000 51100 217000 207000 268000 33700 617000 120000 193000 2472000 32400 17400 66800 205000 31400 45800 10200 10900 116000 67200 27000 4670 139000 43500 13100 14600 53100 108000 65800 64700 34200 17900 24100 58500 18200 170000 10300 14100 391000 47800 12200 7840 88500 15000 29700 6480 37200 135000 16100 60400 31000 26200 2680
2020-06-27 308000 1251000 17600 61200 4530 11000 195000 12700 248000 192000 240000 49900 33500 40900 25200 64000 1261000 105000 271000 82600 507000 52100 219000 210000 270000 34200 623000 124000 193000 2502000 33000 17700 69500 209000 31600 45800 10200 11000 118000 68300 27300 4730 140000 43600 13200 14800 53600 108000 66100 64900 34500 18200 24400 59400 18200 171000 10400 14300 391000 48300 12400 7940 88900 15100 30500 6510 37600 138000 16300 60800 31400 26400 2700
2020-06-28 308000 1252000 17600 61200 4640 11000 195000 12800 248000 192000 240000 49900 33700 41100 25200 64500 1285000 105000 275000 85700 515000 53000 221000 215000 272000 34500 628000 130000 194000 2524000 33500 18000 73900 212000 31700 45800 10300 11000 121000 69500 27500 4850 140000 43700 13200 14900 54100 108000 66300 65100 34700 18300 24600 60100 18300 171000 10500 14600 392000 48700 12800 8090 89300 15100 31500 6530 38000 141000 16600 61100 31700 26600 2720
2020-06-29 308000 1253000 17600 61300 4720 11100 196000 12800 248000 192000 240000 49900 33900 41200 25200 65100 1301000 105000 281000 87300 522000 54200 223000 219000 274000 34800 632000 134000 194000 2533000 34100 18300 77300 215000 31800 45800 10300 11000 123000 69900 27600 4920 141000 43700 13300 15100 54600 108000 66500 65300 34900 18400 24800 60500 18300 171000 10500 14700 392000 48900 13000 8250 89600 15200 32200 6560 38300 142000 16800 61500 31700 26700 2740
2020-06-30 308000 1254000 17700 61300 4770 11100 196000 12800 249000 192000 240000 50000 34100 41300 25200 65600 1323000 105000 286000 88400 527000 54900 225000 220000 275000 35000 635000 138000 194000 2541000 34700 18600 80300 215000 31800 45900 10300 11000 125000 70300 27800 4990 141000 43800 13400 15200 55200 108000 66700 65500 35100 18500 24900 61300 18400 171000 10600 14900 392000 49200 13100 8360 89800 15200 33000 6580 38600 144000 17000 61800 32000 26900 2750
2020-07-01 308000 1255000 17700 61300 4820 11100 197000 12900 249000 193000 240000 50000 34300 41600 25200 66200 1355000 105000 293000 89700 535000 55500 227000 225000 276000 35200 638000 142000 194000 2569000 35300 18900 83900 218000 31800 45900 10300 11000 129000 71100 27900 5050 141000 43800 13400 15400 55700 108000 66900 65600 35300 18700 25100 62100 18400 171000 10700 15000 392000 49400 13200 8490 90000 15200 33600 6600 38900 147000 17300 62100 32100 27000 2770
2020-07-02 308000 1255000 17700 61400 4870 11200 197000 12900 249000 193000 240000 50000 34400 41600 25200 66600 1372000 105000 298000 90700 541000 55900 228000 226000 278000 35200 642000 145000 194000 2579000 35800 19100 86700 220000 31800 45900 10400 11000 131000 71400 28000 5060 141000 43800 13400 15500 56000 108000 67000 65600 35500 18700 25100 62600 18400 171000 10800 15100 392000 49500 13400 8570 90200 15200 34200 6620 39200 149000 17400 62300 32100 27100 2780
2020-07-03 308000 1255000 17700 61400 4910 11200 197000 12900 249000 193000 241000 50000 34600 41600 25200 67000 1390000 105000 305000 92500 547000 56600 230000 228000 279000 35400 645000 149000 194000 2598000 36400 19300 89900 223000 31900 45900 10400 11000 133000 71700 28000 5090 141000 43800 13400 15600 56400 109000 67100 65800 35600 18800 25300 62800 18500 171000 10800 15100 392000 49700 13600 8710 90200 15300 35000 6630 39500 151000 17500 62500 32300 27200 2790

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in Europe 2020-06-24

UKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSENOCH
Peak date04-1004-1203-2604-15 --03-2503-3104-0204-0303-3004-0604-1204-0203-2704-1004-1303-2104-0906-0704-0104-1106-0303-2703-23
Peak daily increment 5769 30089 887 1447 282 275 5959 327 8109 173 11812 93 74 122 961 5734 1161 487 847 384 1353 295 1184
Days from 100 to peak 36 49 18 39 11 18 32 25 28 24 42 22 8 20 30 27 34 84 19 28 88 21 18
Days from peak/2 to peak 22 33 13 31 10 17 20 24 17 24 27 25 12 22 24 17 28 81 14 25 82 20 12
Last total 306862 1242987 17449 60898 4242 7927 10777 192871 12615 247086 7167 191543 3310 2388 4114 25396 239410 49804 32821 40104 24826 62324 8788 31376
Last daily increment 652 4193 41 88 128 9 127 391 54 334 12 -187 8 22 7 5 577 82 294 367 321 1487 16 44
Last week 6393 22491 226 550 568 75 497 3054 271 1818 48 1436 83 119 35 41 1251 485 1806 2015 1746 6281 80 176
Days since peak 75 73 90 70 91 85 83 82 86 79 73 83 89 75 72 95 76 17 84 74 21 89 93

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed 2020-06-24

AustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-RIUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WV
Peak date03-28 --04-2206-1706-21 --06-1803-30 --05-31 --05-07 --04-11 --06-13 -- -- --04-2404-2205-0104-26 -- --05-02 --05-0304-2705-0505-0504-0404-2405-1905-2204-0405-2206-20 -- --05-2105-0105-0104-0705-0206-2004-0804-20 --06-1604-0805-11 --05-0906-02 -- --05-26 --05-2905-24
Peak daily increment 407 1883 16290 3386 1117 3184 6759 11136 4649 835 615 1192 201 245 588 2692 730 298 253 1725 3073 1188 59 1650 723 299 83 448 100 4453 172 317 10063 1091 193 1744 747 162 755 1216 500 52
Days from 100 to peak 18 42 93 94 95 33 75 51 23 85 40 34 40 32 40 48 37 42 42 19 42 61 60 18 63 90 52 33 37 23 38 92 30 32 88 22 47 39 76 68 72 56
Days from peak/2 to peak 14 33 63 75 87 27 53 31 17 79 35 29 40 31 34 40 33 40 41 13 30 54 64 13 56 89 57 29 41 15 39 90 19 27 88 15 40 41 71 59 69 61
Last total 7558 1188631 104087 254416 73760 473105 49009 212501 196847 264689 32295 606043 111796 191657 2381361 31624 16644 60190 195925 31139 45653 10128 10870 108884 65041 26464 4401 138494 43140 12930 14349 52469 107262 65337 3015 64201 33683 17066 23424 56527 3362 18038 5596 169800 10105 13528 389666 46759 11510 7444 87685 14945 27897 6419 36360 128132 15305 59514 29826 25763 2629
Last daily increment 37 42725 320 3649 0 16922 1113 2531 5437 3879 470 7165 5688 1492 34339 954 649 1812 4448 262 16 34 40 5507 1936 0 147 720 269 393 222 877 170 330 21 339 291 75 526 1888 42 126 26 178 136 0 581 632 479 170 477 0 1325 66 847 5200 385 520 476 432 38
Last week 149 210489 2210 29313 16558 92573 6247 14854 31392 20301 4496 45722 27906 7626 190309 3828 3151 16745 28839 1253 483 225 385 23068 8148 1610 658 3766 1702 1177 1170 4293 1205 2108 139 1686 2066 1526 2783 8360 169 800 147 1842 733 1359 3906 3637 2155 1078 3002 421 6364 310 4205 26873 2243 3276 2681 1887 211
Days since peak 88 63 7 3 6 86 24 48 74 11 61 63 54 59 53 52 58 50 50 81 61 36 33 81 33 4 34 54 54 78 53 4 77 65 8 77 44 46 22 29 26 31

Initial visual evaluation of forecasts of Confirmed