COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2020-06-26


Disclaimer

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. The documentation that is provided is still in progress and not peer reviewed. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.

Recent changes

[2020-03-24] Our forecasts are starting to overestimate in some cases. This was always expected to happen when the increase starts to slow down. Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, but only for Italy and Spain sofar.
[2020-03-26] Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, only for Italy.
[2020-03-31] Scenario forecasts, based on what happened in China earlier this year, are presented for several countries (line marked with x). Created more plausible 90% confidence bands (dotted line in same colour).
[2020-04-02] Now including more US States, based on New York Times data. And the world.
[2020-04-06] Added a post hoc estimate of the peak number of cases. This needs at least three confirmed observations (four for deaths) after the event. It is based on the averaged smooth trend, and can change later or be a local peak. It is marked with a vertical line with the date label, or a date with left arrow in the bottom left corner of the graph. This is backported to 2020-04-04.
[2020-04-08] Minor correction to peak estimates. Added table with scenario forecasts.
[2020-04-09] Added table with estimated peak dates (if happened) and dates to and since the peak. Note that this can be a local peak, and subsequent re-acceleration (or data revisions) can result in a new peak later.
[2020-04-10] Updated documentation with better description of short-term estimates and peak determination.
[2020-04-16] Added scenario forecasts to all graphs now. This would now be the preferred forecast for most.
This is the first time with a peak in confirmed UK cases (also for deaths, but this is uncertain because it is at the same date).
[2020-04-17] Bird and Nielsen look into nowcasting death counts in England.
[2020-04-24] A summary of our work on short-term COVID-19 forecasting appeared as a voxeu.
[2020-04-27] Our short-term COVID-19 forecasting paper is now available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06.
A small adjustment has been made to the scenario forecast methodology, and will be documented shortly.
[2020-04-29] See our blog entry at the International Institute of Forecasters.
US history of death counts revised in Johns Hopkins/CSSE data.
UK death counts have been revised to include the deaths in care homes. In the Johns Hopkins/CSSE data set, which we use, the entire history has been revised. So forecasts made up to 2020-04-29 cannot be compared to later outcomes. In the ECDC data set only the last observation has changed, causing a jump in the series.
[2020-05-06] The New York Times is in the process of redefining its US state data. Unfortunately, at the moment only the last observation has changed (e.g New York deaths jumped from 19645 on 2020-05-05 to 25956 a day later). This means the data is currently useless; however it does bring it close to the Johns Hopkins/CSSE count (25626 on 2020-05-06). The aggregate US count is based on JH/CSSE so unaffected. We now use Johns Hopkins/CSSE US state data, including all states with sufficient counts. So the new forecasts cannot be compared to those previously.
A minor change is that we show the graph without scenario forecast if no peak has been detected yet.
[2020-05-13] We now omit countries with fewer than 200 confirmed cases in the last week (25 for deaths).
The short-term paper has some small updates, including further comparisons with other models.
Data for Ecuador are not reliable enough for forecasting.
Switched to an improved version of scenario forecasting.
[2020-05-18] Minor fixes to the improved version of scenario forecasting, backported to 2020-05-13.
[2020-05-20] Problem with UK confirmed cases: negative daily count. This makes the forecasts temporarily unreliable.
Updated the second paper.
[2020-06-04] Data issues with confirmed cases for France.
Added an appendix to the short term paper with further forecast comparisons for European and Latin American countries.
Both Sweden and Iran have lost their peak in confirmed cases. For Sweden the previous peak was on 24 April (daily peak of 656 cases), for Iran it was on 31 March (peak of 3116). For Iran this looks like a second wave, with increasing daily counts for the last four weeks. For Sweden this is a sudden jump in confirmed cases in the last two days, compared to a fairly steady weekly pattern over the previous six weeks.
[2020-06-06] Removed Brazil from yesterday's forecasts (only; last observation 2020-06-05).
[2020-06-24] Research presentation on short-term COVID-19 forecasting on 26 June (14:00 UK time) at the Quarterly Forecasting Forum of the IIF UK Chapter.

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Confirmed count average forecast Europe (bold black line in graphs) 2020-06-27 to 2020-07-03

DateUKEUBEBGCZDEDKESFRHRITNLPLPTROSECH
2020-06-26 309360 1253036 61106 4513 11038 194036 12675 247905 192624 2539 239961 50005 33395 40866 25697 65137 31486
2020-06-27 310000 1254000 61200 4620 11100 195000 12700 248000 193000 2560 240000 50100 33600 41000 25800 66800 31500
2020-06-28 311000 1257000 61300 4760 11100 195000 12800 249000 193000 2590 240000 50100 33900 41300 26000 68700 31500
2020-06-29 312000 1260000 61400 4910 11200 196000 12800 249000 193000 2610 240000 50200 34200 41600 26300 70700 31600
2020-06-30 313000 1262000 61500 5050 11300 196000 12800 249000 193000 2640 241000 50300 34400 42000 26500 72700 31600
2020-07-01 314000 1265000 61700 5210 11400 197000 12900 250000 193000 2660 241000 50400 34700 42300 26800 74800 31600
2020-07-02 315000 1266000 61800 5360 11400 197000 12900 250000 193000 2690 241000 50400 35000 42600 27100 76900 31700
2020-07-03 316000 1268000 61900 5530 11500 198000 13000 250000 193000 2720 241000 50500 35200 42900 27300 79100 31700

Confirmed count average forecast (bold black line in graphs) 2020-06-27 to 2020-07-03

DateBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-NCUS-NEUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-RIUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WV
2020-06-26 1274974 104629 263360 80811 508953 51427 217724 208392 272364 34073 619936 124590 194511 2467554 33717 18041 66659 206844 31780 45807 10185 10994 122826 68073 27713 4864 140261 44140 13462 14859 54758 107725 66115 64956 34535 18005 25066 59158 18354 169883 10515 15240 391220 48638 12347 7818 88860 14945 30335 6535 38371 140173 16304 60570 30806 26747 2730
2020-06-27 1326000 105000 266000 82100 530000 52900 220000 216000 274000 35100 627000 130000 195000 2529000 34300 18400 69100 214000 31900 45900 10200 11000 125000 70100 27900 4980 141000 44200 13500 14900 54900 108000 66400 65100 34700 18400 25400 60800 18400 170000 10700 15700 392000 48900 12800 7920 89200 15000 31600 6560 39300 147000 16800 61000 31400 26900 2750
2020-06-28 1383000 105000 269000 84200 554000 54500 222000 224000 277000 36200 634000 136000 197000 2607000 35300 19000 72300 222000 32000 45900 10300 11100 131000 72500 28100 5160 141000 44400 13600 15100 55300 108000 66700 65400 34900 18800 25800 62700 18600 170000 11000 16200 392000 49300 13300 8080 89600 15000 32900 6600 40500 154000 17300 61400 32200 27100 2780
2020-06-29 1441000 106000 273000 86300 579000 56300 224000 232000 280000 37400 641000 143000 198000 2689000 36400 19600 75500 230000 32200 46000 10300 11100 137000 75000 28300 5360 141000 44700 13800 15300 56000 108000 67000 65600 35200 19300 26200 64700 18700 170000 11200 16800 393000 50000 13800 8240 90100 15000 34400 6640 41700 161000 17900 61900 33000 27400 2820
2020-06-30 1503000 106000 276000 88500 606000 58000 227000 241000 283000 38700 648000 150000 199000 2773000 37400 20300 78900 238000 32400 46100 10300 11200 144000 77600 28600 5560 142000 45000 14000 15500 56700 109000 67400 65900 35500 19800 26700 66700 18800 171000 11500 17400 394000 50600 14300 8410 90600 15100 35900 6690 42900 169000 18500 62400 33800 27700 2850
2020-07-01 1567000 106000 279000 90700 634000 59900 229000 251000 286000 40000 655000 157000 200000 2860000 38600 21000 82400 247000 32600 46100 10400 11200 151000 80300 28900 5770 142000 45200 14200 15700 57500 109000 67700 66200 35800 20300 27300 68800 18900 171000 11800 17900 394000 51200 14900 8580 91100 15100 37400 6730 44100 177000 19100 62900 34700 28100 2890
2020-07-02 1635000 106000 282000 93300 663000 61800 232000 261000 289000 41300 663000 165000 201000 2950000 39700 21700 86100 256000 32900 46200 10400 11300 158000 83100 29200 5990 143000 45500 14300 15900 58200 109000 68000 66400 36100 20900 27900 71000 19100 171000 12000 18600 395000 51900 15400 8750 91500 15100 39000 6780 45400 185000 19700 63400 35500 28400 2930
2020-07-03 1705000 107000 286000 96100 693000 63700 234000 271000 292000 42700 670000 174000 203000 3042000 40900 22500 89900 265000 33100 46300 10400 11300 165000 85900 29500 6220 143000 45800 14500 16100 59000 109000 68400 66700 36400 21400 28500 73200 19200 172000 12300 19200 396000 52600 16000 8930 92000 15200 40700 6830 46800 194000 20300 63900 36400 28700 2970

Confirmed count forecast Europe (bold red line in graphs) 2020-06-27 to 2020-07-03

DateUKEUBEBGCZDEDKESFRHRITNLPLPTROSECH
2020-06-26 309360 1253036 61106 4513 11038 194036 12675 247905 192624 2539 239961 50005 33395 40866 25697 65137 31486
2020-06-27 311000 1258000 61200 4640 11100 195000 12700 248000 193000 2580 240000 50100 33700 41200 26000 66800 31500
2020-06-28 312000 1262000 61300 4780 11200 195000 12800 249000 193000 2620 241000 50100 33900 41500 26300 68600 31600
2020-06-29 313000 1266000 61400 4910 11300 196000 12800 249000 194000 2670 241000 50200 34200 41900 26700 70500 31600
2020-06-30 314000 1269000 61500 5050 11400 196000 12900 249000 194000 2710 241000 50300 34400 42200 27000 72500 31700
2020-07-01 315000 1272000 61600 5190 11500 197000 12900 250000 194000 2750 241000 50400 34700 42500 27300 74500 31700
2020-07-02 316000 1275000 61700 5340 11600 197000 12900 250000 195000 2790 242000 50400 34900 42800 27600 76600 31800
2020-07-03 317000 1278000 61900 5490 11700 198000 13000 250000 195000 2830 242000 50500 35200 43200 28000 78700 31800

Confirmed count forecast (bold red line in graphs) 2020-06-27 to 2020-07-03

DateBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-NCUS-NEUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-RIUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WV
2020-06-26 1274974 104629 263360 80811 508953 51427 217724 208392 272364 34073 619936 124590 194511 2467554 33717 18041 66659 206844 31780 45807 10185 10994 122826 68073 27713 4864 140261 44140 13462 14859 54758 107725 66115 64956 34535 18005 25066 59158 18354 169883 10515 15240 391220 48638 12347 7818 88860 14945 30335 6535 38371 140173 16304 60570 30806 26747 2730
2020-06-27 1328000 105000 267000 83000 531000 53100 220000 216000 276000 35200 627000 131000 196000 2542000 34700 18600 69600 215000 32000 45900 10200 11000 129000 70400 28000 5120 141000 44400 13600 15000 55500 108000 66400 65300 34900 18400 25800 60900 18500 170000 10800 15600 392000 49200 12800 7940 89400 14900 31600 6580 39500 147000 16900 61100 31600 27100 2770
2020-06-28 1387000 105000 270000 86000 555000 54800 223000 225000 279000 36400 634000 137000 197000 2621000 35800 19300 72600 223000 32300 46000 10300 11100 136000 72800 28400 5320 142000 44700 13800 15200 56400 108000 66800 65600 35200 18900 26400 62900 18600 170000 11100 16100 393000 49900 13300 8100 90000 14900 33000 6630 40800 153000 17400 61600 32400 27500 2800
2020-06-29 1446000 106000 274000 89000 579000 56500 225000 233000 283000 37700 640000 144000 198000 2702000 36900 20100 75800 232000 32500 46000 10300 11100 144000 75300 28700 5530 142000 45000 14100 15400 57300 108000 67100 65900 35500 19400 27100 64900 18800 171000 11300 16500 393000 50700 13700 8260 90500 14900 34400 6680 42100 160000 18000 62100 33200 27900 2840
2020-06-30 1510000 106000 277000 92000 605000 58300 228000 242000 286000 39000 647000 151000 199000 2789000 38000 20800 79000 241000 32700 46100 10300 11200 152000 77800 29100 5740 143000 45300 14300 15700 58200 109000 67400 66100 35900 19900 27800 66900 18900 171000 11600 17000 394000 51400 14200 8420 91000 14900 35900 6720 43400 168000 18600 62600 34100 28200 2880
2020-07-01 1576000 106000 280000 95000 631000 60200 230000 251000 289000 40300 654000 159000 201000 2879000 39200 21600 82300 250000 33000 46200 10300 11200 161000 80500 29400 5970 143000 45600 14500 15900 59100 109000 67800 66400 36200 20500 28500 69100 19000 171000 12000 17500 395000 52100 14800 8580 91600 14900 37400 6770 44900 175000 19200 63100 34900 28600 2910
2020-07-02 1646000 106000 283000 98000 660000 62200 233000 261000 293000 41700 661000 167000 202000 2971000 40400 22500 85800 259000 33200 46300 10400 11300 170000 83300 29800 6200 144000 46000 14700 16100 60100 109000 68100 66700 36600 21000 29200 71300 19100 171000 12300 18000 395000 52800 15300 8750 92100 14900 39000 6820 46300 183000 19900 63600 35900 29000 2950
2020-07-03 1718000 107000 286000 101000 689000 64200 235000 271000 296000 43100 668000 175000 203000 3066000 41700 23300 89400 269000 33400 46300 10400 11300 179000 86100 30100 6440 144000 46300 15000 16300 61000 109000 68400 67000 36900 21600 30000 73600 19300 172000 12600 18600 396000 53500 15900 8920 92600 14900 40700 6870 47800 192000 20500 64100 36800 29400 2990

Confirmed count scenario forecast (bold purple line in graphs) 2020-06-27 to 2020-07-05

DateUKEUBEBGCZDEDKESFRHRITNLPLPTROSECHBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-NCUS-NEUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-RIUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WV
2020-06-26 309360 1253036 61106 4513 11038 194036 12675 247905 192624 2539 239961 50005 33395 40866 25697 65137 31486 1274974 104629 263360 80811 508953 51427 217724 208392 272364 34073 619936 124590 194511 2467554 33717 18041 66659 206844 31780 45807 10185 10994 122826 68073 27713 4864 140261 44140 13462 14859 54758 107725 66115 64956 34535 18005 25066 59158 18354 169883 10515 15240 391220 48638 12347 7818 88860 14945 30335 6535 38371 140173 16304 60570 30806 26747 2730
2020-06-27 310000 1255000 61200 4630 11100 195000 12700 248000 193000 2580 240000 50000 33600 41100 25700 66300 31500 1306000 105000 268000 82600 525000 52600 220000 214000 274000 34800 626000 129000 195000 2517000 34300 18300 68300 213000 31900 45800 10200 11000 125000 69900 27900 5110 141000 44300 13700 15000 55200 108000 66400 65300 34700 18300 25600 60400 18400 170000 10700 15600 392000 48900 12800 7920 89300 15000 31200 6570 39100 146000 16700 60900 31400 26900 2750
2020-06-28 311000 1257000 61300 4720 11200 195000 12800 249000 193000 2630 241000 50100 33900 41400 25900 67600 31600 1332000 105000 270000 85100 539000 53700 222000 218000 276000 35300 631000 134000 196000 2564000 34900 18700 71200 218000 32100 45900 10300 11100 129000 71100 28200 5270 141000 44500 13900 15200 55800 108000 66600 65600 34900 18600 26000 61600 18500 170000 10800 15900 392000 49400 13300 8060 89900 15100 32000 6600 39700 151000 17000 61300 32000 27200 2780
2020-06-29 311000 1259000 61400 4800 11300 196000 12800 249000 193000 2680 241000 50100 34100 41700 26100 68700 31600 1362000 105000 274000 86800 549000 54800 225000 221000 278000 35700 637000 139000 196000 2594000 35500 19000 73600 222000 32300 45900 10300 11100 133000 72500 28400 5380 142000 44700 14100 15300 56400 108000 66900 65900 35100 19000 26300 62600 18500 170000 10900 16100 393000 49900 13700 8210 90500 15100 32700 6630 40300 155000 17400 61700 32400 27500 2810
2020-06-30 311000 1259000 61500 4840 11400 196000 12800 249000 193000 2720 241000 50200 34300 42000 26100 69700 31600 1391000 106000 279000 88900 562000 55700 227000 224000 281000 36100 641000 144000 196000 2623000 35900 19300 76400 226000 32500 45900 10300 11100 138000 73800 28700 5460 142000 44800 14300 15400 57600 108000 67100 66100 35400 19300 26600 63400 18600 170000 11000 16400 393000 50200 14100 8340 91000 15100 33300 6670 40900 160000 17800 62100 32800 27700 2830
2020-07-01 312000 1260000 61500 4890 11500 196000 12800 249000 193000 2770 241000 50200 34500 42200 26200 70700 31600 1409000 106000 283000 90100 569000 56600 229000 226000 282000 36300 646000 151000 196000 2638000 36500 19500 79100 228000 32600 46000 10300 11100 140000 73900 29000 5490 143000 44900 14400 15600 58400 109000 67300 66400 35500 19500 26700 64300 18700 171000 11000 16500 394000 50600 14400 8460 91500 15200 33800 6690 41200 163000 18000 62400 32900 27900 2850
2020-07-02 312000 1260000 61600 4930 11500 197000 12800 250000 193000 2840 242000 50200 34700 42300 26300 71400 31700 1436000 106000 288000 91800 577000 57300 231000 228000 284000 36500 650000 154000 197000 2658000 37000 19600 81200 229000 32800 46000 10400 11200 143000 74200 29200 5580 143000 45000 14400 15700 59000 109000 67500 66700 35700 19900 26800 64800 18700 171000 11000 16700 394000 50900 14600 8600 91700 15200 34200 6720 41800 167000 18300 62700 33200 28100 2870
2020-07-03 312000 1261000 61600 4940 11600 197000 12900 250000 193000 2890 242000 50300 34800 42400 26300 72400 31700 1463000 106000 293000 93400 586000 57900 232000 231000 286000 36700 653000 158000 197000 2682000 37500 19800 83700 230000 32900 46000 10400 11200 146000 74800 29400 5750 144000 45100 14500 15800 59700 109000 67600 67000 35800 20100 26900 65300 18700 171000 11000 16900 395000 51100 14700 8730 91900 15200 34500 6740 42300 170000 18300 62900 33300 28300 2890
2020-07-04 312000 1261000 61600 4960 11600 197000 12900 250000 193000 2930 242000 50300 35000 42600 26300 73000 31700 1476000 106000 296000 95000 591000 58500 233000 233000 288000 36800 655000 164000 197000 2692000 37900 20000 85000 232000 32900 46000 10400 11200 147000 74800 29600 5760 144000 45100 14600 15900 60500 109000 67800 67200 35900 20200 27100 66000 18800 171000 11100 16900 395000 51400 14800 8840 92100 15200 34900 6760 42700 174000 18500 63200 33400 28400 2900
2020-07-05 312000 1261000 61600 4980 11600 197000 12900 250000 193000 2970 242000 50300 35200 42700 26300 74000 31700 1501000 106000 304000 96000 600000 59300 235000 235000 290000 37000 657000 167000 198000 2709000 38400 20200 87100 232000 32900 46100 10400 11200 149000 75400 29700 5770 144000 45200 14700 15900 61400 109000 67900 67200 36100 20200 27200 66700 18800 171000 11100 17000 395000 51500 14800 8970 92200 15300 35500 6780 43000 178000 18600 63400 33800 28500 2910

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in Europe 2020-06-26

UKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSENOCH
Peak date04-1004-1203-2604-15 --03-2503-3104-0204-0303-3004-0604-1204-0203-2704-1004-1303-2104-0906-0704-0104-11 --03-2703-23
Peak daily increment 5768 30089 887 1447 282 275 5959 327 8109 173 11813 93 74 122 961 5734 1161 482 847 384 295 1184
Days from 100 to peak 36 49 18 39 11 18 32 25 28 24 42 22 8 20 30 27 34 84 19 28 21 18
Days from peak/2 to peak 22 33 13 31 10 17 20 24 17 24 27 25 12 22 24 17 28 81 14 25 20 12
Last total 309360 1253036 17522 61106 4513 7967 11038 194036 12675 247905 7191 192624 3343 2539 4127 25414 239961 50005 33395 40866 25697 65137 8832 31486
Last daily increment 1380 5770 45 99 105 26 168 665 39 419 19 1336 22 56 4 9 255 91 276 451 411 1247 44 58
Last week 6250 24270 199 556 641 86 590 3366 284 1967 49 1512 87 240 41 40 1686 503 1775 2025 1967 6546 90 243
Days since peak 77 75 92 72 93 87 85 84 88 81 75 85 91 77 74 97 78 19 86 76 91 95

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed 2020-06-26

AustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-RIUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WV
Peak date03-28 --04-2206-17 -- -- --03-30 --05-31 --05-07 --04-11 -- -- -- -- --04-2404-2205-0104-26 -- --05-02 --05-0304-2705-0505-0504-0404-2405-1905-2204-0405-22 -- -- --05-2105-0105-0104-07 -- --04-0804-20 --06-1604-0805-11 --05-09 -- -- --05-26 --05-2905-24
Peak daily increment 407 1883 15935 3184 6759 11136 4649 615 1192 201 245 588 2692 730 298 253 1725 3073 1188 59 1650 723 83 448 100 4453 10063 1091 190 1744 747 162 1216 500 52
Days from 100 to peak 18 42 93 33 75 51 23 40 34 40 32 40 48 37 42 42 19 42 61 60 18 63 52 33 37 23 30 32 88 22 47 39 68 72 56
Days from peak/2 to peak 14 33 63 27 53 31 17 35 29 40 31 34 40 33 40 41 13 30 54 64 13 56 57 29 41 15 19 27 88 15 40 41 59 69 61
Last total 7601 1274974 104629 263360 80811 508953 51427 217724 208392 272364 34073 619936 124590 194511 2467554 33717 18041 66659 206844 31780 45807 10185 10994 122826 68073 27713 4864 140261 44140 13462 14859 54758 107725 66115 3096 64956 34535 18005 25066 59158 3421 18354 5669 169883 10515 15240 391220 48638 12347 7818 88860 14945 30335 6535 38371 140173 16304 60570 30806 26747 2730
Last daily increment 6 46860 166 4296 3498 18552 1240 2628 5441 3762 1004 6788 6215 1396 45255 964 914 3378 5732 317 73 26 35 8938 1618 349 0 866 485 355 255 1353 230 338 28 318 491 530 550 1686 28 175 33 393 209 381 805 987 399 250 719 0 1313 56 1214 5615 539 624 488 520 36
Last week 140 207395 1867 26612 17357 98502 6398 15140 33190 21026 4673 43774 31909 8018 212257 4591 3459 16532 31631 1447 368 201 332 29146 9254 2222 860 4212 2079 1365 1250 5381 1143 2159 160 1716 2136 1863 4425 7768 170 834 152 1198 907 2264 3948 4377 2309 1068 3270 421 6579 310 4662 30592 2322 3127 2643 2208 230
Days since peak 90 65 9 88 26 50 76 63 65 56 61 55 54 60 52 52 83 63 38 35 83 35 36 56 56 80 79 67 10 79 46 48 31 28 33

Initial visual evaluation of forecasts of Confirmed