COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2020-07-01


Disclaimer

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. The documentation that is provided is still in progress and not peer reviewed. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.

Recent changes

[2020-03-24] Our forecasts are starting to overestimate in some cases. This was always expected to happen when the increase starts to slow down. Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, but only for Italy and Spain sofar.
[2020-03-26] Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, only for Italy.
[2020-03-31] Scenario forecasts, based on what happened in China earlier this year, are presented for several countries (line marked with x). Created more plausible 90% confidence bands (dotted line in same colour).
[2020-04-02] Now including more US States, based on New York Times data.
[2020-04-06] Added a post hoc estimate of the peak number of cases. This needs at least three confirmed observations (four for deaths) after the event. It is based on the averaged smooth trend, and can change later or be a local peak. It is marked with a vertical line with the date label, or a date with left arrow in the bottom left corner of the graph. This is backported to 2020-04-04.
[2020-04-08] Minor correction to peak estimates. Added table with scenario forecasts.
[2020-04-09] Added table with estimated peak dates (if happened) and dates to and since the peak. Note that this can be a local peak, and subsequent re-acceleration (or data revisions) can result in a new peak later.
[2020-04-10] Updated documentation with better description of short-term estimates and peak determination.
[2020-04-16] Added scenario forecasts to all graphs now. This would now be the preferred forecast for most.
This is the first time with a peak in confirmed UK cases (also for deaths, but this is uncertain because it is at the same date).
[2020-04-17] Bird and Nielsen look into nowcasting death counts in England.
[2020-04-24] A summary of our work on short-term COVID-19 forecasting appeared as a voxeu.
[2020-04-27] Our short-term COVID-19 forecasting paper is now available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06.
A small adjustment has been made to the scenario forecast methodology, and will be documented shortly.
[2020-04-29] See our blog entry at the International Institute of Forecasters.
US history of death counts revised in Johns Hopkins/CSSE data.
UK death counts have been revised to include the deaths in care homes. In the Johns Hopkins/CSSE data set, which we use, the entire history has been revised. So forecasts made up to 2020-04-29 cannot be compared to later outcomes. In the ECDC data set only the last observation has changed, causing a jump in the series.
[2020-05-06] The New York Times is in the process of redefining its US state data. Unfortunately, at the moment only the last observation has changed (e.g New York deaths jumped from 19645 on 2020-05-05 to 25956 a day later). This means the data is currently useless; however it does bring it close to the Johns Hopkins/CSSE count (25626 on 2020-05-06). The aggregate US count is based on JH/CSSE so unaffected. We now use Johns Hopkins/CSSE US state data, including all states with sufficient counts. So the new forecasts cannot be compared to those previously.
A minor change is that we show the graph without scenario forecast if no peak has been detected yet.
[2020-05-13] We now omit countries with fewer than 200 confirmed cases in the last week (25 for deaths).
The short-term paper has some small updates, including further comparisons with other models.
Data for Ecuador are not reliable enough for forecasting.
Switched to an improved version of scenario forecasting.
[2020-05-18] Minor fixes to the improved version of scenario forecasting, backported to 2020-05-13.
[2020-05-20] Problem with UK confirmed cases: negative daily count. This makes the forecasts temporarily unreliable.
Updated the second paper.
[2020-06-04] Data issues with confirmed cases for France.
Added an appendix to the short term paper with further forecast comparisons for European and Latin American countries.
Both Sweden and Iran have lost their peak in confirmed cases. For Sweden the previous peak was on 24 April (daily peak of 656 cases), for Iran it was on 31 March (peak of 3116). For Iran this looks like a second wave, with increasing daily counts for the last four weeks. For Sweden this is a sudden jump in confirmed cases in the last two days, compared to a fairly steady weekly pattern over the previous six weeks.
[2020-06-06] Removed Brazil from yesterday's forecasts (only; last observation 2020-06-05).
[2020-06-24] Research presentation on short-term COVID-19 forecasting on 26 June (14:00 UK time) at the Quarterly Forecasting Forum of the IIF UK Chapter.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and will be streamed here.

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Confirmed count average forecast Europe (bold black line in graphs) 2020-07-02 to 2020-07-08

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEESFRHRITNLPLPTROSECH
2020-07-01 313483 1272539 17873 61509 5154 8152 12046 195893 249659 194985 2831 240760 50273 34775 42454 27296 69692 31851
2020-07-02 314000 1275000 17900 61600 5270 8160 12200 196000 250000 195000 2870 241000 50300 34900 42700 27500 70200 31900
2020-07-03 315000 1277000 17900 61700 5420 8180 12300 197000 250000 195000 2910 241000 50400 35100 43000 27800 70900 31900
2020-07-04 316000 1280000 18000 61800 5580 8210 12500 197000 251000 196000 2950 241000 50500 35400 43300 28200 71700 32000
2020-07-05 317000 1282000 18000 61900 5740 8230 12600 197000 251000 196000 3000 241000 50500 35600 43600 28500 72400 32000
2020-07-06 318000 1285000 18100 62000 5910 8260 12800 198000 251000 196000 3050 241000 50600 35900 43900 28800 73200 32100
2020-07-07 319000 1287000 18200 62100 6080 8290 13000 198000 252000 196000 3100 241000 50700 36100 44200 29100 73900 32100
2020-07-08 319000 1288000 18200 62200 6260 8310 13100 199000 252000 196000 3150 242000 50700 36400 44500 29400 74700 32200

Confirmed count average forecast (bold black line in graphs) 2020-07-02 to 2020-07-08

DateAustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-RIUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WV
2020-07-01 8001 1448753 106288 282043 98090 604641 57770 230211 231770 288477 38511 653479 159333 201098 2686258 38442 20491 84105 238681 33012 46363 10365 11468 158830 77199 29510 6369 143962 45952 14830 15838 60175 108530 67918 3292 66754 36635 18793 27900 66751 3615 19134 171285 11368 19101 394079 52865 14119 8931 91775 15229 37919 6826 43846 172368 18361 63203 33264 29199 2979
2020-07-02 8020 1475000 107000 285000 101000 624000 59300 232000 234000 291000 39600 660000 167000 202000 2754000 39500 21000 85000 247000 33200 46500 10400 11500 165000 78800 29800 6560 144000 46300 15200 16000 60400 109000 68200 3320 66900 37000 18900 28700 67700 3630 19300 171000 11500 19800 395000 53400 14300 9200 92100 15300 39600 6870 44700 178000 18700 63700 33900 29900 3000
2020-07-03 8050 1509000 107000 288000 104000 645000 61100 234000 238000 295000 40900 666000 176000 204000 2842000 40800 21500 88000 255000 33400 46600 10400 11600 172000 81300 30100 6830 145000 46600 15600 16100 61100 109000 68600 3350 67100 37300 19100 29600 69000 3660 19400 172000 11700 20700 395000 54100 14600 9500 92500 15300 41300 6930 46100 186000 19100 64100 34700 30600 3040
2020-07-04 8070 1544000 107000 292000 107000 666000 63000 237000 242000 298000 42200 673000 185000 205000 2932000 42200 22100 91000 264000 33600 46700 10500 11700 179000 83900 30400 7130 146000 47000 16000 16300 62100 109000 68900 3380 67400 37700 19300 30600 70400 3700 19500 172000 11800 21600 396000 54900 14900 9800 93000 15300 43200 6980 47600 195000 19500 64600 35600 31400 3080
2020-07-05 8100 1579000 107000 295000 111000 688000 64900 239000 246000 301000 43500 679000 194000 206000 3026000 43600 22700 94000 274000 33900 46800 10500 11800 187000 86600 30700 7450 146000 47300 16500 16400 63100 109000 69200 3420 67700 38100 19500 31600 71800 3730 19700 172000 12000 22500 397000 55700 15200 10100 93500 15400 45100 7030 49100 203000 19900 65100 36400 32200 3120
2020-07-06 8130 1616000 108000 298000 114000 711000 66900 241000 250000 304000 44900 686000 205000 207000 3122000 45000 23300 98000 283000 34100 46900 10500 11800 195000 89300 31100 7780 147000 47600 16900 16600 64200 109000 69600 3450 68000 38500 19600 32600 73300 3760 19800 172000 12100 23500 397000 56500 15600 10400 94000 15400 47100 7080 50700 212000 20300 65600 37300 33100 3170
2020-07-07 8160 1654000 108000 302000 118000 735000 69000 244000 255000 307000 46300 693000 215000 208000 3223000 46500 23900 101000 293000 34300 47000 10600 11900 203000 92200 31400 8120 147000 48000 17400 16800 65200 110000 69900 3490 68300 38900 19800 33600 74700 3790 19900 173000 12300 24500 398000 57300 15900 10700 94600 15500 49200 7140 52300 222000 20800 66100 38200 33900 3210
2020-07-08 8190 1693000 108000 305000 122000 759000 71100 246000 259000 310000 47700 699000 226000 210000 3325000 48000 24500 105000 302000 34600 47100 10600 12000 212000 95200 31700 8480 148000 48400 17900 17000 66300 110000 70300 3520 68600 39300 20000 34700 76200 3830 20100 173000 12400 25600 398000 58200 16300 11000 95100 15500 51400 7190 54000 232000 21200 66600 39100 34800 3260

Confirmed count forecast Europe (bold red line in graphs) 2020-07-02 to 2020-07-08

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEESFRHRITNLPLPTROSECH
2020-07-01 313483 1272539 17873 61509 5154 8152 12046 195893 249659 194985 2831 240760 50273 34775 42454 27296 69692 31851
2020-07-02 314000 1276000 17900 61600 5320 8180 12100 196000 250000 195000 2870 241000 50300 35000 42700 27600 70500 31900
2020-07-03 315000 1280000 18000 61700 5490 8210 12200 197000 250000 196000 2920 241000 50400 35300 43000 27900 71500 32000
2020-07-04 316000 1283000 18100 61800 5660 8250 12300 197000 251000 196000 2960 241000 50400 35500 43300 28200 72500 32100
2020-07-05 317000 1286000 18100 61900 5850 8280 12400 198000 251000 196000 3000 241000 50500 35800 43500 28500 73500 32200
2020-07-06 318000 1289000 18200 62000 6030 8310 12500 198000 251000 196000 3050 241000 50500 36000 43800 28800 74500 32200
2020-07-07 318000 1291000 18200 62100 6230 8340 12500 198000 252000 197000 3090 241000 50600 36300 44100 29100 75500 32300
2020-07-08 319000 1294000 18300 62200 6430 8380 12600 199000 252000 197000 3140 241000 50600 36500 44300 29400 76600 32400

Confirmed count forecast (bold red line in graphs) 2020-07-02 to 2020-07-08

DateAustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-RIUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WV
2020-07-01 8001 1448753 106288 282043 98090 604641 57770 230211 231770 288477 38511 653479 159333 201098 2686258 38442 20491 84105 238681 33012 46363 10365 11468 158830 77199 29510 6369 143962 45952 14830 15838 60175 108530 67918 3292 66754 36635 18793 27900 66751 3615 19134 171285 11368 19101 394079 52865 14119 8931 91775 15229 37919 6826 43846 172368 18361 63203 33264 29199 2979
2020-07-02 8050 1481000 107000 285000 101000 625000 59500 233000 236000 292000 39600 660000 168000 202000 2768000 39200 21000 86000 247000 33300 46500 10400 11500 163000 79900 29900 6480 145000 46300 15300 16000 61000 109000 68300 3330 67100 37000 19000 28300 68000 3650 19200 172000 11500 19600 395000 53600 14400 9200 92300 15300 39600 6880 45200 180000 18700 63700 34000 29900 3020
2020-07-03 8100 1516000 107000 288000 104000 645000 61300 235000 240000 295000 40900 666000 176000 203000 2855000 40100 21500 90000 257000 33500 46600 10400 11600 167000 82700 30200 6680 145000 46600 15800 16200 62100 109000 68600 3360 67400 37400 19100 28700 69400 3680 19300 172000 11500 20100 395000 54500 14700 9500 92900 15300 41300 6930 46800 188000 19100 64100 34800 30700 3070
2020-07-04 8140 1550000 107000 291000 107000 666000 63100 237000 245000 298000 42100 672000 185000 204000 2943000 41100 22100 93000 266000 33800 46700 10500 11700 171000 85600 30600 6890 146000 46900 16400 16400 63300 109000 69000 3400 67800 37800 19200 29200 70700 3720 19500 172000 11600 20700 396000 55400 15100 9800 93400 15400 43100 6980 48400 197000 19500 64600 35600 31500 3110
2020-07-05 8160 1585000 107000 294000 110000 688000 65000 239000 249000 301000 43500 679000 194000 205000 3038000 42100 22600 96000 276000 34000 46800 10500 11800 175000 88600 30900 7110 147000 47200 16900 16600 64400 109000 69300 3430 68100 38200 19300 29700 72100 3750 19600 172000 11700 21300 397000 56200 15400 10100 94000 15400 45000 7040 50200 206000 19900 65000 36500 32300 3160
2020-07-06 8190 1621000 108000 297000 113000 710000 67000 242000 254000 304000 44800 685000 204000 206000 3135000 43200 23100 100000 287000 34300 46900 10500 11900 180000 91800 31300 7330 147000 47500 17500 16800 65600 109000 69600 3470 68400 38500 19500 30300 73500 3790 19700 173000 11800 21900 397000 57100 15800 10400 94500 15500 47000 7090 51900 216000 20300 65500 37400 33100 3210
2020-07-07 8210 1658000 108000 300000 116000 734000 69100 244000 258000 307000 46300 691000 214000 208000 3235000 44300 23700 104000 298000 34500 47000 10600 11900 184000 95100 31700 7560 148000 47900 18000 17000 66800 109000 70000 3500 68800 38900 19600 30800 75000 3820 19800 173000 11900 22600 398000 58000 16100 10700 95100 15500 49100 7140 53800 226000 20700 65900 38300 34000 3260
2020-07-08 8220 1696000 108000 303000 119000 758000 71200 246000 263000 310000 47700 698000 225000 209000 3339000 45400 24200 108000 309000 34800 47100 10600 12000 188000 98400 32000 7800 148000 48200 18600 17200 68000 110000 70300 3540 69100 39300 19700 31400 76400 3860 19900 173000 12000 23200 398000 58900 16500 11000 95600 15600 51300 7200 55700 236000 21100 66400 39200 34900 3310

Confirmed count scenario forecast (bold purple line in graphs) 2020-07-02 to 2020-07-10

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEESFRHRITNLPLPTROSECHAustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-RIUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WV
2020-07-01 313483 1272539 17873 61509 5154 8152 12046 195893 249659 194985 2831 240760 50273 34775 42454 27296 69692 31851 8001 1448753 106288 282043 98090 604641 57770 230211 231770 288477 38511 653479 159333 201098 2686258 38442 20491 84105 238681 33012 46363 10365 11468 158830 77199 29510 6369 143962 45952 14830 15838 60175 108530 67918 3292 66754 36635 18793 27900 66751 3615 19134 171285 11368 19101 394079 52865 14119 8931 91775 15229 37919 6826 43846 172368 18361 63203 33264 29199 2979
2020-07-02 314000 1274000 17900 61600 5250 8180 12300 196000 250000 195000 2870 241000 50400 34900 42600 27500 70200 31900 8070 1472000 106000 286000 101000 622000 58900 232000 235000 291000 39200 659000 164000 202000 2734000 39300 21000 85000 243000 33200 46500 10400 11500 165000 78500 29700 6620 144000 46200 15100 15900 60500 109000 68200 3320 67000 36800 19100 28700 67900 3640 19300 172000 11600 19800 395000 53400 14400 9100 92200 15300 39100 6870 44500 177000 18700 63600 33900 29800 3020
2020-07-03 315000 1276000 18000 61600 5340 8220 12600 196000 251000 195000 2920 242000 50500 35100 42800 27700 71000 32000 8160 1503000 107000 290000 104000 639000 60100 235000 238000 293000 39900 663000 172000 204000 2786000 40000 21500 88000 248000 33300 46600 10400 11600 174000 80100 29900 6840 145000 46500 15400 16000 61700 109000 68400 3350 67300 37100 19400 29300 69400 3670 19400 172000 11800 20600 395000 53900 14800 9300 92700 15300 40600 6910 45300 183000 19100 64000 34500 30300 3070
2020-07-04 316000 1276000 18100 61600 5400 8260 12800 197000 251000 195000 2960 242000 50500 35300 42900 27900 71700 32100 8240 1529000 107000 294000 106000 650000 60800 237000 241000 296000 40500 667000 179000 205000 2818000 40600 21900 91000 254000 33500 46800 10400 11700 180000 81200 30100 7020 145000 46700 15700 16100 62800 109000 68700 3370 67600 37300 19600 30000 70500 3690 19500 172000 12000 21100 396000 54600 15100 9400 93100 15300 41800 6950 46200 187000 19400 64400 34900 30700 3100
2020-07-05 316000 1278000 18100 61600 5450 8300 13100 197000 251000 196000 2990 242000 50600 35500 43100 28000 72200 32100 8320 1552000 107000 297000 109000 659000 61500 239000 245000 298000 41000 671000 182000 206000 2860000 40900 22300 93000 259000 33600 46800 10500 11700 184000 81900 30400 7190 146000 46900 16000 16200 63700 109000 68900 3390 67900 37600 19700 30400 71100 3720 19600 172000 12100 21600 396000 54800 15300 9500 93400 15400 42800 6980 46700 191000 19600 64700 35300 31100 3130
2020-07-06 317000 1279000 18200 61600 5510 8340 13400 197000 252000 196000 3040 242000 50600 35700 43300 28200 72700 32200 8410 1574000 107000 301000 110000 667000 62200 241000 248000 299000 41400 675000 188000 207000 2872000 41100 22700 96000 262000 33600 46900 10500 11800 189000 82600 30500 7320 146000 47000 16200 16200 64500 109000 69100 3410 68200 37700 20000 30800 71500 3740 19700 173000 12200 21800 396000 55100 15700 9600 93600 15400 44000 7010 47200 195000 19900 65100 35500 31200 3150
2020-07-07 317000 1280000 18300 61600 5610 8380 13600 197000 252000 197000 3100 243000 50700 35800 43300 28300 73200 32300 8490 1597000 107000 303000 112000 674000 62800 243000 251000 301000 42000 678000 195000 208000 2887000 41200 23000 98000 265000 33700 46900 10500 11800 195000 83700 30600 7410 146000 47200 16300 16300 65300 109000 69200 3430 68500 37900 20300 31200 72500 3760 19800 173000 12300 22000 397000 55100 15900 9700 93900 15400 45000 7030 47300 199000 20200 65300 36100 31500 3160
2020-07-08 317000 1280000 18300 61600 5670 8410 13900 197000 252000 197000 3180 243000 50800 36000 43300 28300 73700 32400 8580 1616000 107000 303000 114000 682000 63400 244000 254000 302000 42400 679000 200000 208000 2907000 41500 23400 100000 268000 33700 47000 10500 11800 195000 84400 30600 7510 147000 47200 16400 16300 66100 109000 69400 3440 68700 38000 20700 31500 73100 3770 19800 173000 12400 22100 397000 55100 16200 9900 94000 15400 46000 7030 47700 203000 20400 65500 36300 31600 3180
2020-07-09 317000 1280000 18400 61700 5750 8450 14200 198000 253000 197000 3230 243000 50800 36100 43300 28400 74300 32500 8670 1640000 107000 304000 116000 692000 64100 245000 256000 303000 43000 680000 204000 209000 2934000 41800 23800 102000 272000 33800 47000 10500 11900 197000 85600 30700 7610 147000 47300 16500 16400 66700 109000 69500 3450 68900 38100 20900 32000 74100 3780 19900 173000 12500 22200 397000 55100 16400 10000 94000 15400 46900 7050 48200 206000 20700 65700 36600 31900 3210
2020-07-10 317000 1280000 18500 61700 5860 8490 14500 198000 253000 197000 3260 243000 50800 36200 43300 28400 74500 32600 8760 1668000 107000 305000 118000 703000 64600 247000 258000 304000 43900 681000 213000 209000 2975000 42000 24200 105000 276000 33800 47000 10500 11900 201000 87300 30800 7710 147000 47300 16700 16400 67100 109000 69700 3460 69100 38200 21100 32600 75100 3790 19900 173000 12600 22300 397000 55100 16600 10100 94100 15400 48100 7070 48800 210000 21100 65900 36900 32500 3230

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in Europe 2020-07-01

UKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSENOCH
Peak date04-1004-1203-2604-15 --03-2503-3104-0204-0303-3004-0604-1204-0203-2704-1004-1303-2104-0906-0704-0104-1106-1803-2703-23
Peak daily increment 5768 30091 887 1447 282 275 5959 327 8109 173 11815 93 74 122 961 5733 1161 482 847 384 1164 295 1184
Days from 100 to peak 36 49 18 39 11 18 32 25 28 24 42 22 8 20 30 27 34 84 19 28 103 21 18
Days from peak/2 to peak 22 33 13 31 10 17 20 24 17 24 27 25 12 22 24 17 28 81 14 25 98 20 12
Last total 313483 1272539 17873 61509 5154 8152 12046 195893 12794 249659 7236 194985 3432 2831 4157 25477 240760 50273 34775 42454 27296 69692 8896 31851
Last daily increment 829 4581 107 82 165 47 92 475 26 388 22 612 23 54 2 4 182 0 382 313 326 1241 17 137
Last week 5503 24551 396 502 746 211 1176 2522 158 2173 64 2975 111 348 34 72 1054 359 1656 2039 2010 5802 108 423
Days since peak 82 80 97 77 98 92 90 89 93 86 80 90 96 82 79 102 83 24 91 81 13 96 100

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed 2020-07-01

AustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-RIUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WV
Peak date03-2806-2604-2206-1706-28 -- --03-3006-2505-31 --05-07 --04-11 -- --06-26 -- --04-2404-2205-0104-26 -- --05-02 --05-0304-27 --05-0504-0404-2405-1905-2204-0405-2206-26 -- --05-2105-0105-0104-0706-27 --04-0804-2006-25 --04-0805-11 --05-09 -- --06-2605-26 -- -- --
Peak daily increment 407 38586 1883 16865 3750 3184 5575 6760 11135 4649 649 615 1192 201 245 588 2692 730 253 1725 3073 1188 59 1650 723 315 83 448 100 4453 189 10063 1091 394 1744 747 162 436 1216
Days from 100 to peak 18 104 42 93 101 33 99 75 51 23 94 40 34 40 32 40 48 37 42 19 42 61 60 18 63 96 52 33 37 23 94 30 32 93 22 47 39 97 68
Days from peak/2 to peak 14 76 33 62 81 27 78 53 31 17 91 35 29 40 31 34 40 33 41 13 30 54 64 13 56 95 57 29 41 15 94 19 27 91 15 40 41 94 59
Last total 8001 1448753 106288 282043 98090 604641 57770 230211 231770 288477 38511 653479 159333 201098 2686258 38442 20491 84105 238681 33012 46363 10365 11468 158830 77199 29510 6369 143962 45952 14830 15838 60175 108530 67918 3292 66754 36635 18793 27900 66751 3615 19134 5801 171285 11368 19101 394079 52865 14119 8931 91775 15229 37919 6826 43846 172368 18361 63203 33264 29199 2979
Last daily increment 81 46712 191 2650 2821 19160 1385 2549 5681 3264 997 6550 8124 1192 50655 906 435 4878 7263 314 53 38 32 6541 2618 439 253 826 358 460 216 2082 0 359 41 423 415 34 653 1424 39 131 20 260 126 645 625 1076 362 275 636 0 1520 62 1658 9308 393 416 518 540 79
Last week 406 220639 1825 22979 20777 114240 7583 15115 28819 19875 5442 40331 40958 7983 263959 5689 3364 20824 37569 1549 629 206 509 44942 10744 2146 1505 4567 2297 1723 1234 6770 1035 2141 224 2116 2591 1318 3384 9279 222 955 165 1795 1062 4242 3664 5214 2171 1363 3634 284 8897 347 6689 37810 2596 3257 2946 2972 285
Days since peak 95 5 70 14 3 93 6 31 55 81 5 68 70 61 66 60 59 65 57 88 68 43 40 88 40 5 41 61 61 85 4 84 72 6 84 51 53 5 36

Initial visual evaluation of forecasts of Confirmed