COVID-19 short-term forecasts

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in Europe 2020-07-08

	UK	EU	AT	BE	BG	BS	CZ	DE	DK	ES	FI	FR	GR	HR	HU	IE	IT	NL	PL	PT	RO	SE	NO	CH
Peak date	04-07	04-02	03-26	04-15	--	03-28	04-03	03-27	04-06	03-30	04-04	04-12	04-21	--	04-10	04-10	03-24	03-31	06-08	04-10	--	06-03	03-26	03-27
Peak daily increment	4724	29653	810	1470		278	283	5661	316	8057	146	19785	86		105	1116	5648	1079	437	830		1337	240	1139
Days from 100 to peak	36	37	18	38		15	22	25	28	26	22	42	40		20	27	30	25	85	28		88	19	22
Days from peak/2 to peak	24	24	13	32		14	21	14	27	17	22	24	44		23	21	20	19	82	23		82	18	17
Last total	286979	1298030	18513	62123	6342	8507	12814	198699	12900	252513	7265	196796	3622	3325	4210	25542	242149	50746	36689	44859	30175	73858	8950	32498
Last daily increment	630	3246	92	65	240	65	129	356	12	383	3	-293	33	53	5	4	193	52	277	443	555	514	3	129
Last week	3205	21041	572	525	1027	297	636	2329	85	2410	24	1338	164	413	44	53	1188	411	1543	2077	2429	3219	48	531
Days since peak	92	97	104	84		102	96	103	93	100	95	87	78		89	89	106	99	30	89		35	104	103

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed 2020-07-08

	Australia	Brazil	Canada	Chile	Colombia	India	Indonesia	Iran	Mexico	Peru	Philippines	Russia	South Africa	Turkey	US	US-AL	US-AR	US-AZ	US-CA	US-CO	US-CT	US-DC	US-DE	US-FL	US-GA	US-IA	US-ID	US-IL	US-IN	US-KS	US-KY	US-LA	US-MA	US-MD	US-ME	US-MI	US-MN	US-MO	US-MS	US-NC	US-ND	US-NE	US-NH	US-NJ	US-NM	US-NV	US-NY	US-OH	US-OK	US-OR	US-PA	US-SC	US-SD	US-TN	US-TX	US-UT	US-VA	US-WA	US-WI	US-WV
Peak date	03-28	--	05-03	06-17	--	--	--	04-01	--	05-30	--	05-09	--	04-14	--	07-03	07-03	07-04	--	04-24	04-20	05-01	04-26	--	--	05-01	--	05-12	05-01	--	--	--	04-24	05-06	05-22	04-06	05-24	--	--	--	04-18	05-01	05-01	04-08	--	07-04	03-31	07-03	--	--	04-09	07-05	05-09	--	--	--	05-26	--	--	--
Peak daily increment	359		1984	31742				2861		5882		10905		4816		1230	562	3675		729	1012	190	197			512		2692	668				3307	1017	48	1624	673				94	441	89	4272		863	9432	2413			1624	1728	148				1076
Days from 100 to peak	18		51	92				36		73		52		27		105	102	105		40	30	39	32			39		58	42				40	48	59	21	65				19	33	38	24		105	20	106			23	106	39				68
Days from peak/2 to peak	15		43	48				29		53		34		19		97	98	92		35	27	40	32			34		49	38				30	41	65	15	59				23	29	41	16		99	12	97			16	97	41				60
Last total	9056	1713160	108334	303083	124494	767296	68079	248379	275003	312911	50359	699749	224665	208938	3054699	46424	24301	108614	292560	35099	46880	10642	12361	223532	95379	32604	8968	149383	49063	17332	17918	70151	110230	70861	3458	70109	39502	22719	32888	77687	3971	20302	5951	173383	13084	24301	398929	60181	17894	10817	96725	48909	7242	53926	224929	21520	67375	37804	33154	3707
Last daily increment	170	44571	311	2064	4213	24879	1853	2691	6995	3633	2486	6534	8810	1041	58601	1161	703	3520	8548	452	74	73	45	9969	2852	467	430	986	437	472	399	1921	257	465	23	646	454	616	674	1397	73	227	20	187	285	516	692	1277	674	212	827	1557	79	2238	8903	567	635	500	598	202
Last week	990	216302	1691	18542	22233	141752	8685	15516	36492	20907	11554	39518	56604	6654	312650	6820	2963	21169	46010	1764	445	252	683	54598	15668	2352	2376	4547	2676	2330	1843	8595	1245	2438	136	2777	2374	2581	4118	9471	314	1016	130	1699	1473	4568	3975	7316	3363	1523	4113	9208	349	8561	45792	2703	3640	3741	3416	654
Days since peak	102		66	21				98		39		60		85		5	5	4		75	79	68	73			68		57	68				75	63	47	93	45				81	68	68	91		4	99	5			90	3	60				43

Confirmed count forecast Europe (bold red line in graphs) 2020-07-09 to 2020-07-15

Date	UK	EU	AT	BE	BG	BS	CZ	DE	ES	FR	HR	IT	NL	PL	PT	RO	SE	CH
2020-07-08	286979	1298030	18513	62123	6342	8507	12814	198699	252513	196796	3325	242149	50746	36689	44859	30175	73858	32498
2020-07-09	287000	1302000	18610	62210	6537	8562	12890	199400	253000	197200	3414	242500	50870	36960	45200	30850	76070	32610
2020-07-10	287500	1306000	18700	62290	6776	8613	12970	199800	253400	197600	3511	242600	50880	37220	45520	31590	76910	32710
2020-07-11	288100	1310000	18790	62370	7019	8665	13040	200100	253900	197900	3606	242800	50890	37480	45840	32340	76910	32810
2020-07-12	288500	1313000	18880	62450	7108	8715	13110	200400	254300	198300	3708	242900	51050	37740	46160	33100	76910	32910
2020-07-13	288900	1317000	18970	62530	7356	8764	13170	200800	254700	198600	3813	243100	51090	38000	46480	33770	78330	33010
2020-07-14	289400	1320000	19060	62610	7626	8814	13240	201100	255100	199000	3921	243200	51120	38260	46800	34560	78780	33110
2020-07-15	289800	1324000	19160	62690	7934	8865	13310	201400	255500	199400	4031	243400	51160	38520	47120	35440	79540	33220

Confirmed count forecast (bold red line in graphs) 2020-07-09 to 2020-07-15

Date	Australia	Brazil	Canada	Chile	Colombia	India	Indonesia	Iran	Mexico	Peru	Philippines	Russia	South Africa	Turkey	US	US-AL	US-AR	US-AZ	US-CA	US-CO	US-CT	US-DC	US-DE	US-FL	US-GA	US-IA	US-ID	US-IL	US-IN	US-KS	US-KY	US-LA	US-MA	US-MD	US-MI	US-MN	US-MO	US-MS	US-NC	US-ND	US-NE	US-NJ	US-NM	US-NV	US-NY	US-OH	US-OK	US-OR	US-PA	US-SC	US-SD	US-TN	US-TX	US-UT	US-VA	US-WA	US-WI	US-WV
2020-07-08	9056	1713160	108334	303083	124494	767296	68079	248379	275003	312911	50359	699749	224665	208938	3054699	46424	24301	108614	292560	35099	46880	10642	12361	223532	95379	32604	8968	149383	49063	17332	17918	70151	110230	70861	70109	39502	22719	32888	77687	3971	20302	173383	13084	24301	398929	60181	17894	10817	96725	48909	7242	53926	224929	21520	67375	37804	33154	3707
2020-07-09	9210	1802000	108600	309700	130200	800000	70870	250900	284800	316600	52810	705900	238300	210100	3158000	47360	24820	111900	302600	35540	46950	10660	12450	238200	99900	32980	9880	150100	49440	17600	18340	72020	110400	71230	70110	39900	23440	33500	79500	4013	20450	173700	13530	25040	399600	61230	18400	11050	97300	50300	7299	56270	234900	22160	67920	38330	34430	3961
2020-07-10	9360	1876000	108900	316000	135400	834000	73220	253300	295100	320100	55340	712000	251200	211200	3259000	48230	25340	115200	312200	35960	47030	10690	12540	253900	104300	33350	10610	150800	49810	17860	18810	74260	110700	71580	70500	40270	24130	34060	82040	4052	20600	174000	13970	25780	400200	62220	19160	11270	97900	51860	7353	58820	245300	22830	68450	38850	35520	4197
2020-07-11	9510	1943000	109200	321800	139900	871000	75800	255700	305700	323600	57970	718000	265800	212400	3355000	49110	25850	118400	321300	36330	47100	10730	12630	270600	108400	33720	11410	151500	50180	18120	19280	75210	110900	71930	70900	40650	24780	34640	84040	4091	20740	174300	14430	26520	400800	63240	19830	11490	98500	53490	7405	60740	256200	23500	68970	39360	36720	4438
2020-07-12	9660	2004000	109500	327700	147100	908000	78340	258100	316800	327100	60710	724000	279000	213500	3456000	49970	26360	121600	336700	36680	47170	10760	12720	288300	111600	34080	12230	152200	50540	18380	19780	77760	111000	72270	71210	41020	25180	35190	86280	4127	20880	174600	14880	27270	401400	64220	20430	11710	99100	54820	7457	62450	267500	24210	69490	39860	37850	4675
2020-07-13	9810	2053000	109800	333600	149800	945000	80900	260500	328400	330600	63590	730000	292700	214700	3558000	50830	26880	124900	350700	37040	47240	10790	12810	307100	114300	34440	13120	152900	50900	18630	20280	79570	111100	72610	71550	41390	25790	35740	88210	4163	21020	174800	15340	28020	401900	65210	20990	11930	99600	56210	7509	64260	279300	24940	70000	40370	38950	4892
2020-07-14	9960	2129000	110000	339500	153300	982000	83470	262900	340500	334100	66610	736000	306800	215800	3672000	51690	27410	128100	369900	37430	47310	10820	12890	327100	118900	34810	14070	153600	51270	18890	20810	82020	111300	72960	72100	41760	26660	36300	90130	4200	21160	175100	15780	28780	402500	66210	22030	12160	100200	57330	7561	66410	291700	25700	70530	40880	40080	5139
2020-07-15	10110	2216000	110300	345400	158400	1022000	86240	265300	353000	337600	69780	742000	320800	217000	3789000	52560	27940	131400	384100	37750	47380	10860	12980	348500	123400	35170	15090	154200	51630	19150	21340	84860	111500	73300	72570	42130	27430	36860	92810	4237	21300	175400	16180	29560	403100	67210	22890	12380	100700	58880	7614	69340	304600	26470	71050	41390	41050	5366

Confirmed count average forecast Europe (bold black line in graphs) 2020-07-09 to 2020-07-15

Date	UK	EU	AT	BE	BG	BS	CZ	DE	ES	FR	HR	IT	NL	PL	PT	RO	SE	CH
2020-07-08	286979	1298030	18513	62123	6342	8507	12814	198699	252513	196796	3325	242149	50746	36689	44859	30175	73858	32498
2020-07-09	287000	1301000	18590	62180	6536	8530	12910	198900	252700	197000	3402	242200	50800	36930	45120	30810	74630	32560
2020-07-10	287200	1303000	18680	62270	6757	8576	13030	199100	253100	197300	3506	242300	50840	37170	45440	31530	75360	32630
2020-07-11	287600	1305000	18760	62350	6982	8618	13150	199300	253300	197500	3613	242400	50880	37410	45750	32270	75390	32710
2020-07-12	287900	1307000	18840	62440	7057	8663	13260	199500	253700	197700	3717	242500	51000	37660	46060	33020	75400	32780
2020-07-13	288200	1310000	18920	62520	7261	8688	13390	199700	254000	198000	3842	242600	51070	37900	46370	33690	76230	32860
2020-07-14	288500	1312000	18990	62600	7513	8734	13540	199900	254400	198200	3960	242700	51140	38130	46680	34450	76690	32930
2020-07-15	288800	1314000	19070	62690	7764	8779	13650	200100	254700	198400	4081	242800	51200	38390	47000	35260	77420	33010

Confirmed count average forecast (bold black line in graphs) 2020-07-09 to 2020-07-15

Date	Australia	Brazil	Canada	Chile	Colombia	India	Indonesia	Iran	Mexico	Peru	Philippines	Russia	South Africa	Turkey	US	US-AL	US-AR	US-AZ	US-CA	US-CO	US-CT	US-DC	US-DE	US-FL	US-GA	US-IA	US-ID	US-IL	US-IN	US-KS	US-KY	US-LA	US-MA	US-MD	US-MI	US-MN	US-MO	US-MS	US-NC	US-ND	US-NE	US-NJ	US-NM	US-NV	US-NY	US-OH	US-OK	US-OR	US-PA	US-SC	US-SD	US-TN	US-TX	US-UT	US-VA	US-WA	US-WI	US-WV
2020-07-08	9056	1713160	108334	303083	124494	767296	68079	248379	275003	312911	50359	699749	224665	208938	3054699	46424	24301	108614	292560	35099	46880	10642	12361	223532	95379	32604	8968	149383	49063	17332	17918	70151	110230	70861	70109	39502	22719	32888	77687	3971	20302	173383	13084	24301	398929	60181	17894	10817	96725	48909	7242	53926	224929	21520	67375	37804	33154	3707
2020-07-09	9113	1775000	108500	306100	129000	797000	70160	250300	283900	315600	51620	704300	235700	210000	3137000	47410	24800	111700	302200	35240	46930	10650	12440	233100	98200	32960	9380	150000	49420	17520	18200	71880	110300	71080	70240	39740	23280	33240	79380	3987	20360	173600	13350	25000	399500	60610	18290	11040	97100	50480	7289	55530	233300	22100	67860	38310	33930	3805
2020-07-10	9238	1851000	108700	309700	134500	832000	72270	252600	293600	319000	53820	709900	247800	211100	3240000	48600	25380	115100	311100	35490	46980	10680	12540	244700	102000	33350	9820	150800	49810	17800	18540	74100	110500	71470	70580	40120	23940	33750	82310	4023	20510	173900	13700	25910	400100	61530	18870	11300	97600	52370	7355	57630	243300	22770	68410	38840	34840	3920
2020-07-11	9381	1919000	108900	313200	140000	870000	74580	254800	303600	322300	56110	715500	260800	212300	3343000	49560	25940	118400	319300	35710	47040	10720	12650	257500	105900	33790	10300	151500	50200	18080	18960	75370	110600	71840	70940	40500	24610	34320	84690	4064	20660	174200	14070	26890	400700	62410	19500	11570	98200	54380	7418	59530	254200	23460	68980	39350	35860	4058
2020-07-12	9490	1978000	109100	316800	146300	909000	76920	256900	313500	325700	58450	721100	274100	213400	3450000	50520	26510	122100	332100	35920	47100	10750	12750	271000	109200	34220	10810	152200	50580	18370	19410	77740	110700	72160	71240	40890	25220	34810	87100	4103	20790	174400	14460	27830	401300	63290	20130	11830	98700	56150	7472	61420	262100	24090	69540	39850	36800	4200
2020-07-13	9572	2037000	109300	320400	151700	947000	79070	259100	323100	329200	60800	726300	287800	214500	3558000	51570	27080	125400	343600	36170	47160	10790	12850	285300	112000	34580	11340	152800	50970	18660	19860	79860	110800	72470	71530	41270	25860	35380	89770	4142	20940	174700	14790	28700	401900	64140	20770	12070	99200	58020	7524	63390	273600	24780	70110	40460	37700	4339
2020-07-14	9658	2115000	109500	324000	158000	986000	81350	261200	333900	332600	63320	731100	302300	215700	3674000	52560	27650	129200	358300	36430	47230	10830	12960	300300	116200	34950	11890	153400	51370	18960	20340	82230	110900	72830	71930	41660	26610	35920	92220	4180	21080	174900	15200	29780	402500	64960	21550	12330	99800	59850	7581	65620	286900	25540	70690	40950	38620	4487
2020-07-15	9741	2209000	109700	327700	164100	1028000	83830	263300	345200	336200	65920	736200	317500	216800	3795000	53640	28280	133300	370100	36720	47300	10880	13060	316200	120800	35380	12480	154200	51760	19260	20820	85110	111000	73190	72320	42060	27310	36540	95120	4222	21230	175200	15570	30870	403100	65850	22310	12610	100400	62070	7646	68100	301700	26290	71270	41440	39600	4649

Confirmed count scenario forecast (bold purple line in graphs) 2020-07-09 to 2020-07-17

Date	UK	EU	AT	BE	BG	BS	CZ	DE	ES	FR	HR	IT	NL	PL	PT	RO	SE	CH	Australia	Brazil	Canada	Chile	Colombia	India	Indonesia	Iran	Mexico	Peru	Philippines	Russia	South Africa	Turkey	US	US-AL	US-AR	US-AZ	US-CA	US-CO	US-CT	US-DC	US-DE	US-FL	US-GA	US-IA	US-ID	US-IL	US-IN	US-KS	US-KY	US-LA	US-MA	US-MD	US-MI	US-MN	US-MO	US-MS	US-NC	US-ND	US-NE	US-NJ	US-NM	US-NV	US-NY	US-OH	US-OK	US-OR	US-PA	US-SC	US-SD	US-TN	US-TX	US-UT	US-VA	US-WA	US-WI	US-WV
2020-07-08	286979	1298030	18513	62123	6342	8507	12814	198699	252513	196796	3325	242149	50746	36689	44859	30175	73858	32498	9056	1713160	108334	303083	124494	767296	68079	248379	275003	312911	50359	699749	224665	208938	3054699	46424	24301	108614	292560	35099	46880	10642	12361	223532	95379	32604	8968	149383	49063	17332	17918	70151	110230	70861	70109	39502	22719	32888	77687	3971	20302	173383	13084	24301	398929	60181	17894	10817	96725	48909	7242	53926	224929	21520	67375	37804	33154	3707
2020-07-09	287100	1301000	18640	62200	6456	8552	12910	199100	252800	197100	3441	242300	50850	36920	45090	30680	74540	32580	9260	1762000	108400	306300	129200	788700	69460	252300	280600	316000	51600	702700	234500	210200	3118000	47280	24840	110600	298000	35140	46940	10640	12360	231200	98200	32860	9300	149700	49320	17650	18160	71640	110300	71080	70110	39670	23240	33510	79580	3976	20370	173800	13370	25270	399600	61480	18300	11060	97200	50650	7278	55010	233700	22070	67750	38460	33840	3772
2020-07-10	287500	1304000	18740	62260	6575	8607	12980	199400	253000	197400	3558	242400	50940	37160	45350	31120	75170	32660	9460	1804000	108600	308600	133500	806900	70710	254600	285700	319000	53540	707800	245200	211200	3175000	48090	25320	113600	304700	35240	47000	10680	12390	237900	100700	33220	9560	150200	49610	17940	18510	72600	110400	71390	70490	40020	23730	34060	81070	4030	20450	174100	13670	25950	400300	62850	18700	11260	98000	52120	7318	56280	241400	22560	68220	39120	34440	3940
2020-07-11	287900	1306000	18850	62320	6678	8660	13050	199800	253200	197700	3637	242600	51030	37380	45570	31560	75760	32740	9680	1839000	108700	311000	136800	821000	71860	257600	289900	321700	55120	711200	253800	212300	3224000	48770	25760	115900	310400	35240	47050	10710	12430	244400	103400	33470	9820	150500	49840	18220	18810	73600	110500	71650	70840	40330	24220	34470	82580	4083	20510	174300	13930	26670	401000	63670	19050	11410	98700	53290	7342	57590	249200	22970	68560	39710	35000	3983
2020-07-12	288300	1308000	18960	62360	6791	8715	13110	200100	253400	197900	3692	242700	51090	37590	45760	31990	76270	32810	9900	1869000	108800	312800	139500	836200	72760	260300	294200	323600	56540	714300	262800	213000	3285000	49510	26220	118500	317200	35270	47090	10720	12480	250000	105600	33750	10120	150900	50010	18500	19010	74930	110600	71900	71130	40550	24670	35030	83710	4140	20590	174600	14120	27330	401600	64310	19440	11590	99500	54440	7375	58890	257400	23400	68930	40210	35380	4112
2020-07-13	288700	1310000	19060	62390	6864	8770	13150	200400	253600	198100	3733	242800	51130	37790	45930	32210	76690	32880	10120	1901000	109000	314300	142400	849500	73350	260600	297900	325700	57930	717600	272600	213600	3307000	50240	26600	120600	323600	35270	47130	10730	12510	254400	107300	33960	10410	151100	50160	18890	19250	75480	110600	72080	71330	40800	25140	35560	84940	4198	20600	174900	14400	27850	402300	65330	19660	11710	100200	55500	7384	59860	264300	23720	69220	40690	35950	4219
2020-07-14	289200	1312000	19170	62430	6944	8823	13240	200700	253900	198300	3778	243000	51190	37980	46060	32430	77050	32950	10340	1930000	109100	315600	144800	861700	74250	261500	301900	327600	59410	720200	280500	214000	3365000	50700	26970	122500	328600	35290	47150	10740	12540	258700	109200	34100	10700	151400	50230	19230	19470	76430	110700	72210	71580	41050	25450	35980	86180	4249	20630	175000	14600	28350	403000	67100	19900	11860	100900	56680	7401	60640	271500	24100	69520	41120	36270	4318
2020-07-15	289800	1314000	19290	62460	7048	8879	13280	200800	254100	198500	3858	243100	51250	38130	46150	33040	77380	33020	10570	1962000	109100	317000	146800	870300	75550	262900	307800	328600	60840	721200	290700	214100	3420000	51510	27400	124400	334100	35290	47180	10750	12550	264800	110500	34120	10830	151600	50310	19470	19840	77870	110700	72250	71780	41240	25820	36260	87900	4293	20660	175100	14770	29030	403700	68660	20180	12020	101500	57710	7419	61520	278000	24440	69770	41600	36890	4424
2020-07-16	290100	1316000	19410	62470	7110	8928	13280	201000	254300	198600	3908	243200	51300	38280	46280	33390	77650	33090	10800	1985000	109200	318300	147800	880800	76280	264300	311400	329700	61990	722600	300000	214100	3480000	51780	27790	126000	337900	35290	47220	10750	12570	268700	111000	34160	11030	151800	50380	19750	19840	78650	110700	72290	71810	41460	26160	36410	89020	4330	20670	175200	14960	29500	404400	69760	20400	12150	102200	58600	7434	61990	284400	24720	70000	42040	37320	4484
2020-07-17	290400	1318000	19470	62470	7183	8980	13280	201300	254500	198800	3972	243400	51330	38410	46400	33830	77910	33170	11040	2012000	109200	319800	149800	892300	77300	265200	315600	331100	63020	723900	309100	214100	3514000	52360	28090	128000	342700	35290	47220	10750	12580	274100	113000	34210	11230	151800	50380	19980	19940	79780	110700	72300	71860	41650	26460	36510	90250	4360	20670	175400	15190	30110	405100	70810	20650	12290	102600	59900	7452	62680	290200	25040	70210	42390	37760	4579

Further information

We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
The forecasts are constructed as follows:
1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.
[2020-06-24] Research presentation on short-term COVID-19 forecasting on 26 June (14:00 UK time) at the Quarterly Forecasting Forum of the IIF UK Chapter.
[2020-06-06] Removed Brazil from yesterday's forecasts (only; last observation 2020-06-05).
[2020-06-04] Data issues with confirmed cases for France.
Added an appendix to the short term paper with further forecast comparisons for European and Latin American countries.
Both Sweden and Iran have lost their peak in confirmed cases. For Sweden the previous peak was on 24 April (daily peak of 656 cases), for Iran it was on 31 March (peak of 3116). For Iran this looks like a second wave, with increasing daily counts for the last four weeks. For Sweden this is a sudden jump in confirmed cases in the last two days, compared to a fairly steady weekly pattern over the previous six weeks.
[2020-05-20] Problem with UK confirmed cases: negative daily count. This makes the forecasts temporarily unreliable.
Updated the second paper.
[2020-05-18] Minor fixes to the improved version of scenario forecasting, backported to 2020-05-13.
[2020-05-13] We now omit countries with fewer than 200 confirmed cases in the last week (25 for deaths).
The short-term paper has some small updates, including further comparisons with other models.
Data for Ecuador are not reliable enough for forecasting.
Switched to an improved version of scenario forecasting.
[2020-05-06] The New York Times is in the process of redefining its US state data. Unfortunately, at the moment only the last observation has changed (e.g New York deaths jumped from 19645 on 2020-05-05 to 25956 a day later). This means the data is currently useless; however it does bring it close to the Johns Hopkins/CSSE count (25626 on 2020-05-06). The aggregate US count is based on JH/CSSE so unaffected. We now use Johns Hopkins/CSSE US state data, including all states with sufficient counts. So the new forecasts cannot be compared to those previously.
A minor change is that we show the graph without scenario forecast if no peak has been detected yet.
[2020-04-29] See our blog entry at the International Institute of Forecasters.
US history of death counts revised in Johns Hopkins/CSSE data.
UK death counts have been revised to include the deaths in care homes. In the Johns Hopkins/CSSE data set, which we use, the entire history has been revised. So forecasts made up to 2020-04-29 cannot be compared to later outcomes. In the ECDC data set only the last observation has changed, causing a jump in the series.
[2020-04-27] Our short-term COVID-19 forecasting paper is now available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06.
A small adjustment has been made to the scenario forecast methodology, and will be documented shortly.
[2020-04-24] A summary of our work on short-term COVID-19 forecasting appeared as a voxeu.
[2020-04-17] Bird and Nielsen look into nowcasting death counts in England.
[2020-04-16] Added scenario forecasts to all graphs now. This would now be the preferred forecast for most.
This is the first time with a peak in confirmed UK cases (also for deaths, but this is uncertain because it is at the same date).
[2020-04-10] Updated documentation with better description of short-term estimates and peak determination.
[2020-04-09] Added table with estimated peak dates (if happened) and dates to and since the peak. Note that this can be a local peak, and subsequent re-acceleration (or data revisions) can result in a new peak later.
[2020-04-08] Minor correction to peak estimates. Added table with scenario forecasts.
[2020-04-06] Added a post hoc estimate of the peak number of cases. This needs at least three confirmed observations (four for deaths) after the event. It is based on the averaged smooth trend, and can change later or be a local peak. It is marked with a vertical line with the date label, or a date with left arrow in the bottom left corner of the graph. This is backported to 2020-04-04.
[2020-04-02] Now including more US States, based on New York Times data.
[2020-03-31] Scenario forecasts, based on what happened in China earlier this year, are presented for several countries (line marked with x). Created more plausible 90% confidence bands (dotted line in same colour).
[2020-03-26] Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, only for Italy.
[2020-03-24] Our forecasts are starting to overestimate in some cases. This was always expected to happen when the increase starts to slow down. Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, but only for Italy and Spain sofar.

COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2020-07-08

Gnereal information