COVID-19 short-term forecasts

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in Europe 2020-07-11

	UK	EU	AT	BE	BG	BS	CZ	DE	DK	ES	FI	FR	GR	HR	HU	IE	IT	NL	PL	PT	RO	SE	NO	CH
Peak date	04-07	04-02	03-26	04-15	--	03-28	04-03	03-27	04-06	03-30	04-04	04-12	04-21	--	04-10	04-10	03-24	03-31	06-08	04-10	--	06-03	03-26	03-27
Peak daily increment	4724	29653	810	1470		278	283	5661	316	8057	146	19785	86		105	1116	5649	1079	428	830		1337	240	1139
Days from 100 to peak	36	37	18	38		15	22	25	28	26	22	42	40		20	27	30	25	85	28		88	19	22
Days from peak/2 to peak	24	24	13	32		14	21	14	27	17	22	24	44		23	21	20	19	82	23		82	18	17
Last total	288953	1310648	18783	62469	7175	8721	13115	199709	12946	253908	7291	198199	3772	3672	4229	25611	242827	50921	37521	46221	32079	74898	8977	32817
Last daily increment	820	2807	74	112	211	70	114	377	0	0	12	-251	40	140	6	22	188	81	305	542	698	0	3	127
Last week	3537	24944	503	453	1435	370	600	2186	114	3363	38	2664	253	521	46	84	1216	300	1571	2324	3106	3479	47	549
Days since peak	95	100	107	87		105	99	106	96	103	98	90	81		92	92	109	102	33	92		38	107	106

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed 2020-07-11

	Australia	Brazil	Canada	Chile	Colombia	India	Indonesia	Iran	Mexico	Peru	Philippines	Russia	South Africa	Turkey	US	US-AL	US-AR	US-AZ	US-CA	US-CO	US-CT	US-DC	US-DE	US-FL	US-GA	US-IA	US-ID	US-IL	US-IN	US-KS	US-KY	US-LA	US-MA	US-MD	US-ME	US-MI	US-MN	US-MO	US-MS	US-NC	US-ND	US-NE	US-NH	US-NJ	US-NM	US-NV	US-NY	US-OH	US-OK	US-OR	US-PA	US-SC	US-SD	US-TN	US-TX	US-UT	US-VA	US-WA	US-WI	US-WV
Peak date	03-28	--	05-03	06-17	--	--	--	04-01	--	05-30	07-08	05-09	--	04-14	--	--	--	--	--	04-24	04-20	05-01	04-26	--	--	--	--	05-12	05-01	--	--	--	04-24	05-06	05-22	04-06	05-24	--	--	--	--	05-01	05-01	04-08	07-08	--	03-31	07-03	--	--	04-09	--	05-09	--	--	--	05-26	--	--	--
Peak daily increment	359		1984	31997				2861		5882	1939	10906		4816						729	1012	190	197					2693	668				3307	1017	48	1624	673					441	89	4272	275		9432	2362			1624		148				1076
Days from 100 to peak	18		51	92				36		73	114	52		27						40	30	39	32					58	42				40	48	59	21	65					34	38	24	105		20	106			23		39				68
Days from peak/2 to peak	15		43	48				29		53	103	34		19						35	27	40	32					49	38				30	41	65	15	59					29	41	16	103		12	97			16		41				60
Last total	9797	1839850	109150	312029	140776	849522	74018	255117	295268	322710	54222	719449	264184	211981	3245925	51294	26816	119930	318761	36573	47057	10801	12637	254232	105089	34623	10505	152914	51079	18687	19118	76799	111017	72467	3514	71964	41483	24520	35419	83906	4243	20884	6022	174312	13838	26838	401029	64214	19779	11851	99216	54699	7454	58712	254415	23226	69782	39099	35679	4146
Last daily increment	244	39023	166	2755	6803	28606	1671	2397	6094	3064	1308	6586	13497	1016	61352	1402	979	3038	7876	400	0	58	89	10352	2849	478	577	1192	779	384	450	2165	279	557	18	635	802	491	797	1874	88	223	33	351	223	930	730	1358	687	397	734	2280	53	1499	9659	508	851	0	926	163
Last week	1214	236795	1756	16497	27091	152109	10269	14679	38420	19992	9968	39166	67434	6223	354801	7844	3909	21827	54080	2525	553	319	590	54347	16983	3122	2773	5717	3071	2606	2746	11581	1405	2835	102	3420	3424	3400	4519	10914	427	1123	129	1595	1507	4420	3898	7064	3848	1621	4813	9852	391	9216	56994	3087	4034	3341	4102	884
Days since peak	105		69	24				101		42	3	63		88						78	82	71	76					60	71				78	66	50	96	48					71	71	94	3		102	8			93		63				46

Confirmed count forecast Europe (bold red line in graphs) 2020-07-12 to 2020-07-18

Date	UK	EU	AT	BE	BG	BS	CZ	DE	ES	FR	GR	HR	IT	NL	PL	PT	RO	SE	CH
2020-07-11	288953	1310648	18783	62469	7175	8721	13115	199709	253908	198199	3772	3672	242827	50921	37521	46221	32079	74898	32817
2020-07-12	289500	1315000	18870	62560	7257	8778	13220	200300	254300	198700	3833	3790	243000	51080	37790	46580	32750	75560	32920
2020-07-13	290100	1319000	18960	62650	7487	8832	13330	200700	254700	199000	3885	3910	243200	51110	38060	46920	33470	76240	33020
2020-07-14	290800	1322000	19050	62730	7765	8886	13430	200900	255000	199400	3935	4033	243300	51130	38320	47260	34290	76920	33120
2020-07-15	291300	1326000	19140	62820	8009	8939	13530	201300	255400	199800	3981	4158	243500	51170	38580	47590	35220	77610	33210
2020-07-16	291800	1329000	19220	62900	8391	8991	13640	201600	255700	200200	4028	4287	243700	51230	38840	47920	36200	78300	33310
2020-07-17	292400	1333000	19310	62980	8726	9044	13740	201900	256100	200600	4075	4420	243900	51260	39100	48260	37220	78990	33410
2020-07-18	293100	1337000	19390	63070	8988	9097	13840	202300	256400	201000	4122	4557	244100	51300	39360	48590	38240	79680	33500

Confirmed count forecast (bold red line in graphs) 2020-07-12 to 2020-07-18

Date	Australia	Brazil	Canada	Chile	Colombia	India	Indonesia	Iran	Mexico	Peru	Philippines	Russia	South Africa	Turkey	US	US-AL	US-AR	US-AZ	US-CA	US-CO	US-CT	US-DC	US-DE	US-FL	US-GA	US-IA	US-ID	US-IL	US-IN	US-KS	US-KY	US-LA	US-MA	US-MD	US-MI	US-MN	US-MO	US-MS	US-NC	US-ND	US-NE	US-NJ	US-NM	US-NV	US-NY	US-OH	US-OK	US-OR	US-PA	US-SC	US-SD	US-TN	US-TX	US-UT	US-VA	US-WA	US-WI	US-WV
2020-07-11	9797	1839850	109150	312029	140776	849522	74018	255117	295268	322710	54222	719449	264184	211981	3245925	51294	26816	119930	318761	36573	47057	10801	12637	254232	105089	34623	10505	152914	51079	18687	19118	76799	111017	72467	71964	41483	24520	35419	83906	4243	20884	174312	13838	26838	401029	64214	19779	11851	99216	54699	7454	58712	254415	23226	69782	39099	35679	4146
2020-07-12	10000	1865000	109400	313700	143500	888000	75980	257400	298100	325900	56570	725700	276300	213000	3342000	52320	27730	123500	327600	37100	47140	10840	12730	261700	109100	34970	11230	154000	51540	19150	19650	77140	111100	72880	72480	41480	24890	36520	86400	4351	20930	174500	14020	28580	401700	65400	20460	12210	99300	57290	7510	59870	263200	23980	70610	39650	36750	4293
2020-07-13	10190	1888000	109700	315300	148200	923000	78140	259700	303100	329100	58430	731800	288500	214000	3444000	53880	28690	127000	338400	37490	47210	10880	12830	268400	111900	35540	11880	155000	51970	19940	20210	79250	111300	73270	72990	41880	25520	37670	89000	4448	21060	174700	14190	29290	402300	66540	21170	12590	99900	59190	7565	60920	275600	24600	71370	40190	37620	4438
2020-07-14	10390	1931000	110000	317100	153200	959000	80360	261900	309300	332300	60030	737800	301700	214900	3548000	55130	29650	130400	352900	37890	47290	10920	12920	275800	116200	36200	12550	155900	52390	20410	20780	82320	111400	73660	73470	42390	26400	38850	91200	4549	21240	175000	14370	30300	402900	67700	21900	12970	100500	60900	7621	62300	289600	25240	72140	40700	38540	4584
2020-07-15	10580	1975000	110300	318800	158400	999000	82980	264100	315600	335400	62110	743800	315100	215900	3659000	56750	30660	133900	363300	38280	47360	10950	13010	285000	120500	36770	13240	156900	52800	21180	21390	85690	111700	74040	73950	42810	27180	40080	93800	4664	21420	175200	14550	31230	403500	68820	22660	13360	101000	63190	7676	64220	304200	26020	72870	41210	39570	4728
2020-07-16	10780	2015000	110500	320500	163800	1041000	86510	266300	322300	338500	63620	749800	333000	216800	3774000	59270	31710	137400	376200	38680	47430	10990	13100	294500	123600	37800	13970	157800	53200	21960	22010	89290	111900	74420	74430	43310	28120	41340	96300	4794	21590	175400	14730	32100	404100	69950	23440	13770	101500	65390	7732	65740	320300	26760	73610	41730	40710	4874
2020-07-17	10980	2064000	110800	322200	169400	1086000	89220	268500	329200	341700	64990	755800	350000	217800	3891000	61300	32790	140900	386200	39230	47500	11020	13190	305800	129300	38860	14740	158800	53600	22860	22640	93680	112100	74800	74910	43860	29030	42650	99700	4920	21760	175600	14910	33240	404700	71090	24250	14200	102200	67860	7788	67480	334800	27660	74350	42240	41910	5022
2020-07-18	11180	2101000	111100	323900	175200	1132000	91850	270800	335100	344800	66460	761900	369600	218700	4013000	63170	33910	144500	395100	39560	47570	11060	13280	317000	133700	39830	15550	159700	54010	23510	23300	95820	112400	75180	75390	44400	29780	44000	102800	5043	21960	175800	15090	34750	405300	72250	25090	14630	102800	70920	7844	68990	348000	28400	75090	42760	43250	5172

Confirmed count average forecast Europe (bold black line in graphs) 2020-07-12 to 2020-07-18

Date	UK	EU	AT	BE	BG	BS	CZ	DE	ES	FR	GR	HR	IT	NL	PL	PT	RO	SE	CH
2020-07-11	288953	1310648	18783	62469	7175	8721	13115	199709	253908	198199	3772	3672	242827	50921	37521	46221	32079	74898	32817
2020-07-12	289100	1313000	18870	62510	7249	8755	13180	199800	254200	198500	3788	3751	242900	50990	37710	46350	32740	74730	32890
2020-07-13	289300	1315000	18960	62580	7473	8792	13260	200000	254600	198700	3806	3864	243000	51030	37960	46650	33400	75440	32970
2020-07-14	289700	1317000	19040	62660	7749	8850	13370	200200	255000	199000	3825	3976	243000	51060	38200	46970	34170	75740	33060
2020-07-15	290000	1320000	19120	62750	8036	8906	13470	200400	255400	199300	3850	4090	243100	51100	38450	47280	35050	76140	33140
2020-07-16	290300	1322000	19210	62830	8381	8968	13600	200600	255800	199500	3876	4215	243200	51150	38710	47600	35980	76790	33230
2020-07-17	290700	1324000	19290	62910	8672	9024	13740	200800	256200	199800	3902	4352	243300	51180	38960	47920	36900	77390	33310
2020-07-18	291100	1326000	19390	62990	8944	9076	13870	201000	256600	200100	3931	4483	243400	51210	39200	48240	37790	77670	33400

Confirmed count average forecast (bold black line in graphs) 2020-07-12 to 2020-07-18

Date	Australia	Brazil	Canada	Chile	Colombia	India	Indonesia	Iran	Mexico	Peru	Philippines	Russia	South Africa	Turkey	US	US-AL	US-AR	US-AZ	US-CA	US-CO	US-CT	US-DC	US-DE	US-FL	US-GA	US-IA	US-ID	US-IL	US-IN	US-KS	US-KY	US-LA	US-MA	US-MD	US-MI	US-MN	US-MO	US-MS	US-NC	US-ND	US-NE	US-NJ	US-NM	US-NV	US-NY	US-OH	US-OK	US-OR	US-PA	US-SC	US-SD	US-TN	US-TX	US-UT	US-VA	US-WA	US-WI	US-WV
2020-07-11	9797	1839850	109150	312029	140776	849522	74018	255117	295268	322710	54222	719449	264184	211981	3245925	51294	26816	119930	318761	36573	47057	10801	12637	254232	105089	34623	10505	152914	51079	18687	19118	76799	111017	72467	71964	41483	24520	35419	83906	4243	20884	174312	13838	26838	401029	64214	19779	11851	99216	54699	7454	58712	254415	23226	69782	39099	35679	4146
2020-07-12	9900	1862000	109300	313800	144700	882000	76080	256800	299400	325000	55840	723700	276200	212900	3328000	52510	27440	123200	330500	36730	47120	10810	12720	263000	107800	35350	11020	153300	51240	19120	19570	78030	111100	72630	72250	41560	25050	36290	86200	4322	20960	174500	14060	27810	401500	64980	20430	12190	99600	56690	7502	60140	261500	23830	70050	39560	36570	4208
2020-07-13	10020	1885000	109600	316500	149200	918000	78350	258900	305100	327900	57710	729300	290000	213900	3430000	54270	28330	126700	343200	36990	47190	10850	12810	272600	110700	36140	11620	154000	51510	19770	20080	79890	111200	72950	72630	41830	25740	37390	88800	4414	21110	174800	14300	28740	402100	66010	21100	12490	100300	58890	7555	61530	272700	24480	70570	40190	37500	4300
2020-07-14	10150	1929000	109800	319200	154400	955000	80750	260900	311100	330800	59570	734700	304400	214800	3543000	55810	29250	130400	359700	37330	47260	10890	12890	282900	115400	36990	12240	154700	51910	20300	20610	82220	111300	73350	73110	42260	26520	38530	91400	4508	21270	175000	14540	29770	402700	67020	21910	12830	101000	61000	7614	63150	285700	25180	71180	40710	38480	4406
2020-07-15	10290	1976000	110000	321900	160000	994000	83380	262800	317300	333800	61530	740000	319400	215800	3660000	57570	30210	134200	372800	37700	47330	10940	12990	294500	119700	37860	12890	155500	52330	20940	21160	84940	111400	73750	73640	42690	27280	39710	94100	4614	21430	175300	14780	30890	403300	68130	22710	13190	101700	63380	7682	65130	298700	25920	71780	41200	39500	4530
2020-07-16	10450	2021000	110200	324600	166200	1037000	86530	264800	323700	336800	63470	745200	336200	216800	3783000	59770	31190	138300	386800	38060	47410	10980	13080	306400	123800	38940	13570	156400	52760	21590	21720	87550	111500	74170	74090	43140	28110	40930	96800	4729	21580	175500	15040	31980	403900	69200	23490	13630	102400	65890	7747	66880	313500	26680	72390	41790	40650	4650
2020-07-17	10590	2073000	110300	327400	172500	1083000	89240	266600	330100	339800	65440	750200	353400	217800	3914000	61950	32220	142400	399200	38510	47480	11020	13180	318800	129900	39940	14280	157200	53190	22340	22300	90780	111700	74580	74610	43610	28930	42200	100200	4841	21740	175800	15320	33140	404500	70500	24340	14080	103200	68690	7814	68810	327700	27520	73000	42340	41830	4778
2020-07-18	10760	2116000	110500	330200	178800	1131000	92140	268400	336200	342900	67460	754900	371900	218800	4041000	63850	33280	146400	409900	38810	47550	11050	13270	332100	135500	40980	15040	158000	53620	22970	22890	92430	111800	74980	75100	44010	29740	43490	103300	4954	21900	176100	15610	34680	405100	71720	25210	14540	103800	71700	7879	70520	342200	28340	73620	42850	43130	4889

Confirmed count scenario forecast (bold purple line in graphs) 2020-07-12 to 2020-07-20

Date	UK	EU	AT	BE	BG	BS	CZ	DE	ES	FR	GR	HR	IT	NL	PL	PT	RO	SE	CH	Australia	Brazil	Canada	Chile	Colombia	India	Indonesia	Iran	Mexico	Peru	Philippines	Russia	South Africa	Turkey	US	US-AL	US-AR	US-AZ	US-CA	US-CO	US-CT	US-DC	US-DE	US-FL	US-GA	US-IA	US-ID	US-IL	US-IN	US-KS	US-KY	US-LA	US-MA	US-MD	US-MI	US-MN	US-MO	US-MS	US-NC	US-ND	US-NE	US-NJ	US-NM	US-NV	US-NY	US-OH	US-OK	US-OR	US-PA	US-SC	US-SD	US-TN	US-TX	US-UT	US-VA	US-WA	US-WI	US-WV
2020-07-11	288953	1310648	18783	62469	7175	8721	13115	199709	253908	198199	3772	3672	242827	50921	37521	46221	32079	74898	32817	9797	1839850	109150	312029	140776	849522	74018	255117	295268	322710	54222	719449	264184	211981	3245925	51294	26816	119930	318761	36573	47057	10801	12637	254232	105089	34623	10505	152914	51079	18687	19118	76799	111017	72467	71964	41483	24520	35419	83906	4243	20884	174312	13838	26838	401029	64214	19779	11851	99216	54699	7454	58712	254415	23226	69782	39099	35679	4146
2020-07-12	289100	1315000	18910	62540	7375	8780	13230	200100	254700	198600	3799	3775	242900	50940	37730	46410	32610	75890	32930	10020	1882000	109400	312900	143200	871900	75850	257100	299500	324600	56290	721800	274000	212800	3317000	52460	27620	123400	327600	36920	47170	10810	12680	264600	108500	35290	10980	153300	51080	19120	19510	77970	111100	72600	72560	41480	25030	36430	86040	4327	20950	174600	14170	28040	401500	65090	20260	12110	100100	56650	7487	60580	263800	23800	69940	40270	36460	4239
2020-07-13	289600	1319000	19010	62640	7587	8853	13340	200400	255200	199000	3835	3878	243000	50940	37970	46740	33200	76320	33040	10280	1920000	109600	314200	147500	891200	77160	259300	304800	326500	57510	726100	287400	213600	3384000	53690	28340	126000	335000	37380	47220	10850	12730	274600	110900	35750	11550	154200	51510	19510	19800	79680	111300	72960	73290	41800	25570	37090	87820	4400	21080	174800	14460	29070	402100	66100	20680	12430	100900	58040	7534	62020	270200	24280	70420	40920	37200	4309
2020-07-14	290100	1323000	19110	62710	7709	8924	13450	200700	255700	199300	3869	3946	243100	50940	38200	47090	33400	76650	33150	10540	1944000	109700	314500	149700	906900	78230	261400	309000	328400	58680	729400	296900	214000	3430000	54560	28870	128100	341800	37880	47280	10880	12770	283400	112700	36230	11980	154800	51750	19840	20030	81010	111500	73230	73750	42210	25840	37510	88830	4448	21210	175100	14620	29920	402800	67010	21010	12610	101700	59520	7574	63480	277400	24760	70690	41240	37820	4344
2020-07-15	290600	1328000	19210	62780	7919	9004	13570	201000	256300	199600	3908	4013	243200	50940	38400	47350	33900	76990	33270	10810	1970000	109900	314700	152800	923500	79340	263400	314400	329700	59710	730800	309400	214400	3478000	55600	29510	130600	349700	38290	47310	10910	12780	294100	115000	36680	12430	155300	52030	20270	20320	82450	111600	73460	74170	42580	26220	37990	90130	4500	21310	175300	14800	30480	403400	67640	21400	12840	102500	60720	7603	64890	282300	25270	70950	41600	38220	4429
2020-07-16	291000	1332000	19310	62850	8038	9081	13680	201300	256800	200000	3941	4052	243300	50940	38580	47620	34290	77310	33380	11090	1997000	110000	315900	155000	935300	80050	265400	318300	331300	60470	733700	317300	214600	3513000	56190	30020	132200	354900	38610	47340	10940	12810	301800	116300	36960	12870	155600	52120	20450	20430	83380	111700	73560	74680	42880	26530	38320	91480	4548	21350	175500	15020	30720	404000	68570	21600	12930	103200	61550	7624	65870	286800	25550	71060	42230	38790	4454
2020-07-17	291400	1336000	19370	62910	8178	9152	13760	201400	257200	200100	3975	4109	243400	50940	38750	47810	34650	77560	33470	11370	2020000	110100	317400	156800	946400	80820	267000	321800	332300	61390	735300	324500	214600	3549000	57010	30300	134100	360700	38980	47380	10950	12830	306200	117300	37320	13190	155800	52180	20710	20640	84570	111900	73650	75200	43140	26790	38770	93040	4562	21390	175700	15160	31060	404600	69320	21820	13100	103900	62470	7639	66680	291900	25880	71210	42640	39390	4478
2020-07-18	291700	1340000	19460	62970	8300	9227	13860	201500	257700	200200	4004	4161	243600	50940	38910	48020	34870	77790	33580	11660	2048000	110200	318200	158900	960000	81230	268500	326600	333700	62260	736300	332600	214800	3591000	57440	30380	135200	367100	39240	47420	10960	12850	313100	118600	37690	13440	156000	52240	21010	20820	85730	111900	73710	75590	43360	27050	39080	94010	4608	21420	175900	15350	31620	405200	70550	22120	13260	104600	63570	7643	67730	295900	26260	71340	42880	39600	4507
2020-07-19	292000	1344000	19530	63030	8427	9303	13930	201700	258300	200300	4037	4216	243700	50940	39070	48110	35030	77990	33670	11950	2072000	110300	319200	160300	969100	81740	270000	329700	334600	63060	736400	340900	214800	3607000	57970	30580	136700	371500	39470	47440	10970	12870	320400	119600	37870	13710	156200	52260	21160	20980	86390	112000	73780	75830	43600	27270	39400	94670	4640	21450	176100	15510	32040	405900	71920	22340	13380	104900	64340	7643	68860	299600	26560	71460	43150	39710	4530
2020-07-20	292100	1348000	19620	63100	8497	9387	14080	201900	258800	200600	4068	4244	243800	50940	39210	48230	35200	78210	33770	12250	2097000	110300	320100	162400	981300	82410	271900	333500	335200	64070	736400	348600	214800	3619000	58390	30850	138400	374600	39570	47450	10970	12870	328400	121200	38150	13950	156300	52260	21380	21000	87440	112100	73820	75900	43680	27280	39940	95520	4650	21470	176300	15580	32410	406500	72860	22580	13460	104900	65270	7643	69870	303000	26880	71500	43750	39830	4564

Further information

We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
The forecasts are constructed as follows:
1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.
[2020-06-24] Research presentation on short-term COVID-19 forecasting on 26 June (14:00 UK time) at the Quarterly Forecasting Forum of the IIF UK Chapter.
[2020-06-06] Removed Brazil from yesterday's forecasts (only; last observation 2020-06-05).
[2020-06-04] Data issues with confirmed cases for France.
Added an appendix to the short term paper with further forecast comparisons for European and Latin American countries.
Both Sweden and Iran have lost their peak in confirmed cases. For Sweden the previous peak was on 24 April (daily peak of 656 cases), for Iran it was on 31 March (peak of 3116). For Iran this looks like a second wave, with increasing daily counts for the last four weeks. For Sweden this is a sudden jump in confirmed cases in the last two days, compared to a fairly steady weekly pattern over the previous six weeks.
[2020-05-20] Problem with UK confirmed cases: negative daily count. This makes the forecasts temporarily unreliable.
Updated the second paper.
[2020-05-18] Minor fixes to the improved version of scenario forecasting, backported to 2020-05-13.
[2020-05-13] We now omit countries with fewer than 200 confirmed cases in the last week (25 for deaths).
The short-term paper has some small updates, including further comparisons with other models.
Data for Ecuador are not reliable enough for forecasting.
Switched to an improved version of scenario forecasting.
[2020-05-06] The New York Times is in the process of redefining its US state data. Unfortunately, at the moment only the last observation has changed (e.g New York deaths jumped from 19645 on 2020-05-05 to 25956 a day later). This means the data is currently useless; however it does bring it close to the Johns Hopkins/CSSE count (25626 on 2020-05-06). The aggregate US count is based on JH/CSSE so unaffected. We now use Johns Hopkins/CSSE US state data, including all states with sufficient counts. So the new forecasts cannot be compared to those previously.
A minor change is that we show the graph without scenario forecast if no peak has been detected yet.
[2020-04-29] See our blog entry at the International Institute of Forecasters.
US history of death counts revised in Johns Hopkins/CSSE data.
UK death counts have been revised to include the deaths in care homes. In the Johns Hopkins/CSSE data set, which we use, the entire history has been revised. So forecasts made up to 2020-04-29 cannot be compared to later outcomes. In the ECDC data set only the last observation has changed, causing a jump in the series.
[2020-04-27] Our short-term COVID-19 forecasting paper is now available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06.
A small adjustment has been made to the scenario forecast methodology, and will be documented shortly.
[2020-04-24] A summary of our work on short-term COVID-19 forecasting appeared as a voxeu.
[2020-04-17] Bird and Nielsen look into nowcasting death counts in England.
[2020-04-16] Added scenario forecasts to all graphs now. This would now be the preferred forecast for most.
This is the first time with a peak in confirmed UK cases (also for deaths, but this is uncertain because it is at the same date).
[2020-04-10] Updated documentation with better description of short-term estimates and peak determination.
[2020-04-09] Added table with estimated peak dates (if happened) and dates to and since the peak. Note that this can be a local peak, and subsequent re-acceleration (or data revisions) can result in a new peak later.
[2020-04-08] Minor correction to peak estimates. Added table with scenario forecasts.
[2020-04-06] Added a post hoc estimate of the peak number of cases. This needs at least three confirmed observations (four for deaths) after the event. It is based on the averaged smooth trend, and can change later or be a local peak. It is marked with a vertical line with the date label, or a date with left arrow in the bottom left corner of the graph. This is backported to 2020-04-04.
[2020-04-02] Now including more US States, based on New York Times data.
[2020-03-31] Scenario forecasts, based on what happened in China earlier this year, are presented for several countries (line marked with x). Created more plausible 90% confidence bands (dotted line in same colour).
[2020-03-26] Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, only for Italy.
[2020-03-24] Our forecasts are starting to overestimate in some cases. This was always expected to happen when the increase starts to slow down. Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, but only for Italy and Spain sofar.

COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2020-07-11

Gnereal information