COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2020-07-18


Gnereal information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
    Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in Europe 2020-07-18

UKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSENOCH
Peak date04-0704-0203-2604-15 --03-2804-0303-2704-0603-3004-0404-1204-21 --04-1004-1003-2403-3106-0804-10 --06-0303-2603-27
Peak daily increment 4725 29651 810 1470 278 283 5661 316 8058 146 19785 86 105 1116 5650 1079 426 830 1337 240 1139
Days from 100 to peak 36 37 18 38 15 22 25 28 26 22 42 40 20 27 30 25 85 28 88 19 22
Days from peak/2 to peak 24 24 13 32 14 21 14 27 17 22 24 44 23 21 20 19 82 23 82 18 17
Last total 294066 1342671 19573 63706 8638 9419 13855 202426 13173 260255 7318 201285 3983 4253 4315 25750 244216 51581 39746 48390 36691 77281 9028 33492
Last daily increment 827 3105 134 207 196 82 113 381 0 0 17 -163 19 116 22 20 249 127 339 313 889 0 3 110
Last week 4463 29667 676 999 1386 611 681 2507 227 6347 24 3102 180 531 81 122 1155 559 1855 1878 4156 2383 47 609
Days since peak 102 107 114 94 112 106 113 103 110 105 97 88 99 99 116 109 40 99 45 114 113

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed 2020-07-18

AustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
Peak date -- --05-0306-17 -- --07-1004-01 --05-30 --05-09 --04-14 -- -- -- -- --04-2404-2005-0104-26 -- -- -- --05-12 -- -- -- --04-2405-0605-2204-0605-24 -- -- -- -- --05-0105-0104-08 -- --03-3107-03 -- --04-09 --05-09 -- -- --05-26 -- -- --04-21
Peak daily increment 1984 30872 1709 2861 5879 10909 4816 729 1012 190 197 2693 3307 1017 48 1624 673 441 89 4272 9432 2115 1624 148 1076 86
Days from 100 to peak 51 93 117 36 73 52 27 40 30 39 32 58 40 48 59 21 65 34 38 24 20 106 23 39 68 22
Days from peak/2 to peak 43 48 106 29 53 34 19 35 27 40 32 48 30 41 65 15 59 29 41 16 12 98 16 41 60 27
Last total 11802 2074860 111875 328846 190700 1077781 84882 271606 338913 349500 65304 764215 350879 218717 3711413 64180 31410 141265 380745 39770 47665 11194 13287 337168 126721 38284 14303 160576 55654 21693 22178 88586 112833 77206 3641 76939 45381 29140 41846 2471 98092 4907 22366 6188 176148 15781 34477 406305 73821 25057 14149 104780 67612 7862 73186 327106 26602 76373 45943 41485 4894 2108
Last daily increment 361 28532 316 2407 8560 38697 1752 2166 7615 3963 2303 6214 13285 918 63698 2069 747 2742 7486 444 0 79 84 10310 3748 415 550 1274 841 305 573 0 352 835 8 722 453 856 1017 105 2522 115 119 23 227 264 1182 754 1541 917 347 701 1552 73 2402 9338 581 940 961 978 111 39
Last week 1822 210179 2527 13805 40255 199527 9183 14303 39163 23174 9045 38179 74637 5724 406471 11272 4116 18798 56202 2875 608 347 587 67654 19793 2909 3401 6713 4042 2712 2798 10468 1616 4097 112 4533 3188 4373 5559 713 12321 573 1310 140 1515 1689 6794 4599 8229 4822 1979 4986 10964 363 13532 64344 2915 5703 5424 5037 650 246
Days since peak 76 31 8 108 49 70 95 85 89 78 83 67 85 73 57 103 55 78 78 101 109 15 100 70 53 88

Confirmed count forecast Europe (bold red line in graphs) 2020-07-19 to 2020-07-25

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFRHRITNLPLPTROSECH
2020-07-18 294066 1342671 19573 63706 8638 9419 13855 202426 13173 260255 201285 4253 244216 51581 39746 48390 36691 77281 33492
2020-07-19 294100 1346000 19680 63710 8820 9495 13990 202600 13190 260300 201800 4261 244400 51580 40030 48720 37720 77690 33580
2020-07-20 294600 1350000 19770 63720 9000 9549 14110 202900 13210 260300 202200 4324 244500 51650 40310 49050 38610 78120 33670
2020-07-21 295500 1354000 19870 63730 9240 9648 14240 203200 13240 260300 202600 4384 244600 51700 40590 49380 39660 78550 33760
2020-07-22 296000 1358000 19970 63740 9510 9723 14360 203600 13260 260300 203000 4484 244800 51780 40860 49700 40750 78990 33840
2020-07-23 296500 1362000 20060 63750 9800 9808 14490 204000 13280 260300 203500 4577 245000 51870 41130 50030 42010 79430 33930
2020-07-24 297100 1366000 20160 63760 10100 9866 14620 204500 13300 260300 203900 4683 245200 51950 41400 50350 43270 79870 34010
2020-07-25 297900 1370000 20260 63770 10380 9937 14740 204800 13320 260300 204300 4798 245400 52050 41670 50680 44570 80310 34100

Confirmed count forecast (bold red line in graphs) 2020-07-19 to 2020-07-25

DateAustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
2020-07-18 11802 2074860 111875 328846 190700 1077781 84882 271606 338913 349500 65304 764215 350879 218717 3711413 64180 31410 141265 380745 39770 47665 11194 13287 337168 126721 38284 14303 160576 55654 21693 22178 88586 112833 77206 76939 45381 29140 41846 2471 98092 4907 22366 176148 15781 34477 406305 73821 25057 14149 104780 67612 7862 73186 327106 26602 76373 45943 41485 4894 2108
2020-07-19 12160 2118000 112200 331500 195300 1118000 86420 273600 348300 353000 66890 770500 366200 219700 3820000 65810 32280 144900 389100 40100 47760 11270 13390 348300 130700 38780 14990 161400 56850 22350 22780 89260 112900 77900 77360 45890 30100 41950 2626 101300 5054 22540 176400 16040 35850 407000 75120 26070 14540 105100 69160 7920 76360 337600 27520 77310 46880 42650 5204 2143
2020-07-20 12510 2137000 112500 334100 201100 1161000 87900 275500 357700 356400 68390 776700 382500 220800 3936000 68150 33200 148900 397600 40410 47830 11340 13490 359500 134700 39070 15690 162300 58120 23240 23410 90060 113100 78570 77840 46370 31090 42520 2749 104500 5188 22720 176700 16290 37120 407600 76370 27120 14950 105700 70690 7976 79570 349000 28260 78220 48320 43520 5312 2176
2020-07-21 12850 2177000 112800 336700 208300 1205000 89390 277500 369600 359800 69880 782800 399300 221800 4053000 70150 34140 152800 409400 40820 47910 11410 13590 370600 139000 39360 16400 163100 59390 23630 24050 90830 113400 79240 78520 46860 32110 43400 2898 107800 5277 22900 176900 16540 38710 408300 77640 28190 15370 106600 72220 8034 82950 363300 28970 79130 49370 44750 5376 2209
2020-07-22 13180 2218000 113100 339300 216400 1256000 90850 279400 382000 363100 71320 788900 417100 222800 4178000 72410 35130 156900 418300 41270 47980 11470 13680 381800 144100 39900 17140 164200 60740 24350 24710 91620 113600 79890 79450 47340 33160 44250 3042 110900 5400 23070 177200 16790 39990 408900 78880 29310 15800 107400 73740 8089 86460 378400 29720 80030 50480 45900 5533 2242
2020-07-23 13520 2262000 113400 341800 224500 1311000 92320 281300 394000 366500 72770 795000 435700 223800 4307000 75100 36160 161100 427700 41760 48060 11540 13780 393100 148400 40620 17910 165300 62130 25130 25390 92430 113800 80550 80020 47820 34250 45280 3213 114200 5542 23240 177500 17040 41820 409600 80120 30470 16250 108100 75270 8145 90120 397300 30590 80940 52020 47200 5663 2274
2020-07-24 13860 2298000 113700 344500 235200 1366000 93800 283200 407600 369800 74230 801100 455100 224800 4440000 77670 37220 165400 436000 42320 48140 11610 13870 404600 153800 41210 18710 166600 63540 25940 26090 93240 114100 81200 80720 48300 35380 46320 3381 117800 5691 23410 177700 17290 43830 410200 81380 31680 16700 109100 76820 8201 93940 413700 31460 81850 53260 48540 5787 2307
2020-07-25 14200 2327000 114000 347100 246200 1426000 95300 285200 421400 373200 75710 807200 475300 225800 4576000 80370 38320 169700 443800 42740 48210 11670 13970 416200 159600 41620 19550 167800 64990 26570 26800 94060 114400 81860 81320 48790 36550 47220 3479 121500 5850 23590 178000 17550 45570 410900 82640 32930 17170 109700 78390 8257 97920 428100 32320 82770 54230 49970 5903 2341

Confirmed count average forecast Europe (bold black line in graphs) 2020-07-19 to 2020-07-25

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFRHRITNLPLPTROSECH
2020-07-18 294066 1342671 19573 63706 8638 9419 13855 202426 13173 260255 201285 4253 244216 51581 39746 48390 36691 77281 33492
2020-07-19 294200 1344000 19620 63760 8740 9490 13890 202500 13180 260700 201500 4293 244300 51590 39910 48710 37500 77350 33550
2020-07-20 294500 1346000 19690 63830 8980 9540 13930 202600 13200 261400 201900 4364 244400 51620 40180 49030 38330 77620 33620
2020-07-21 295200 1349000 19760 63900 9280 9640 14020 202700 13220 262100 202200 4443 244400 51670 40450 49360 39340 77810 33700
2020-07-22 295600 1351000 19850 63980 9590 9720 14110 202900 13240 262700 202500 4528 244500 51740 40720 49680 40390 78060 33770
2020-07-23 296000 1354000 19940 64080 9970 9840 14210 203200 13260 263400 202900 4613 244600 51810 40990 50000 41560 78450 33850
2020-07-24 296400 1356000 20030 64170 10350 9930 14290 203400 13280 264100 203200 4702 244700 51860 41270 50320 42740 78690 33920
2020-07-25 296900 1358000 20120 64270 10710 10020 14380 203500 13300 264800 203500 4793 244800 51920 41550 50650 43970 78870 34000

Confirmed count average forecast (bold black line in graphs) 2020-07-19 to 2020-07-25

DateAustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
2020-07-18 11802 2074860 111875 328846 190700 1077781 84882 271606 338913 349500 65304 764215 350879 218717 3711413 64180 31410 141265 380745 39770 47665 11194 13287 337168 126721 38284 14303 160576 55654 21693 22178 88586 112833 77206 76939 45381 29140 41846 2471 98092 4907 22366 176148 15781 34477 406305 73821 25057 14149 104780 67612 7862 73186 327106 26602 76373 45943 41485 4894 2108
2020-07-19 11970 2093000 112000 330300 195800 1119000 86040 273200 346800 352100 66110 768800 365200 219600 3803000 66190 32220 145100 387800 40050 47730 11230 13350 347400 129500 38730 14940 161200 56660 22190 22690 90000 112800 77520 77280 45840 29860 42170 2566 100700 5032 22540 176400 16010 35550 406800 74640 25870 14540 105200 69180 7903 75160 337600 27260 77150 46970 42500 5036 2129
2020-07-20 12210 2111000 112300 332500 202600 1162000 87310 275100 356200 355500 67500 774200 382600 220400 3918000 68610 33150 150000 395800 40400 47800 11280 13430 359300 133900 39200 15660 162100 57860 22920 23310 91900 112900 78050 77770 46380 30680 42860 2673 103700 5183 22730 176600 16280 36810 407500 75860 26780 14920 105900 70920 7952 78150 349700 27980 78030 48230 43500 5184 2164
2020-07-21 12440 2150000 112500 334700 210500 1207000 88760 277000 367600 358900 68980 779300 400200 221300 4043000 70880 34110 155000 407000 40830 47880 11330 13530 371300 138400 39670 16400 163100 59130 23500 23940 93800 113100 78690 78400 46910 31700 43730 2797 107000 5300 22920 176900 16520 38210 408100 77020 27850 15360 106700 72760 8008 80800 364400 28680 78910 49250 44740 5323 2199
2020-07-22 12690 2191000 112700 336800 218900 1257000 90300 278900 379200 362300 70540 784400 418800 222200 4174000 73370 35110 160200 415600 41300 47950 11400 13620 383700 143400 40210 17180 164100 60450 24210 24600 95900 113200 79320 79150 47450 32680 44610 2925 110000 5424 23110 177100 16810 39500 408700 78360 28940 15780 107500 74630 8075 83840 380000 29410 79800 50340 45950 5490 2233
2020-07-23 12980 2232000 113000 339100 227800 1311000 92110 280800 391200 365800 72120 789400 439100 223100 4313000 76100 36140 165600 424800 41780 48020 11440 13720 395500 148500 40800 17990 165100 61780 24910 25270 97800 113400 79910 79700 47990 33700 45520 3070 113100 5584 23310 177400 17100 41030 409400 79590 29990 16310 108300 76510 8139 86960 399100 30200 80690 51650 47190 5691 2269
2020-07-24 13200 2285000 113200 341300 237700 1367000 93840 282600 404100 369200 73750 794000 461800 224000 4454000 78850 37210 171100 433000 42340 48100 11490 13820 408900 155000 41360 18840 166100 63200 25760 25970 100100 113500 80500 80360 48540 34750 46500 3231 116800 5742 23500 177600 17400 42630 410000 80990 31060 16790 109100 78480 8209 90220 415600 31050 81590 52720 48570 5874 2305
2020-07-25 13470 2326000 113400 343600 247600 1424000 95660 284400 416800 372700 75400 798600 484700 224900 4596000 81580 38300 176800 441000 42760 48170 11550 13920 422600 161200 41870 19730 167200 64650 26490 26680 102100 113600 81090 80950 49090 35790 47360 3358 120300 5907 23700 177900 17690 44210 410700 82330 32220 17350 109800 80610 8271 93480 431500 31890 82500 53590 50050 6095 2341

Confirmed count scenario forecast (bold purple line in graphs) 2020-07-19 to 2020-07-27

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFRHRITNLPLPTROSECHAustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
2020-07-18 294066 1342671 19573 63706 8638 9419 13855 202426 13173 260255 201285 4253 244216 51581 39746 48390 36691 77281 33492 11802 2074860 111875 328846 190700 1077781 84882 271606 338913 349500 65304 764215 350879 218717 3711413 64180 31410 141265 380745 39770 47665 11194 13287 337168 126721 38284 14303 160576 55654 21693 22178 88586 112833 77206 76939 45381 29140 41846 2471 98092 4907 22366 176148 15781 34477 406305 73821 25057 14149 104780 67612 7862 73186 327106 26602 76373 45943 41485 4894 2108
2020-07-19 294500 1347000 19650 63780 8920 9600 13930 202400 13200 260800 201800 4323 244400 51610 39890 48750 37450 77830 33550 12160 2120000 112000 330400 195600 1108000 86890 273900 346300 351500 66720 768400 367800 219700 3801000 65880 32170 147100 394300 40170 47750 11240 13390 349400 131200 39090 15240 161100 56700 22520 22670 92900 112900 77640 77940 45760 29890 42720 2654 100300 5047 22570 176500 16160 35610 406900 75070 25900 14620 105500 69550 7893 75310 338300 27220 77040 46960 42470 5094 2130
2020-07-20 295200 1352000 19750 63930 9150 9770 14040 202700 13230 261700 202300 4391 244600 51680 40140 49100 38290 78060 33620 12460 2155000 112100 332000 201400 1138000 88720 276200 353000 354400 68210 773400 382200 220500 3875000 68070 32690 152200 403900 40510 47810 11280 13480 361100 134100 39710 15930 161700 57270 22940 23050 95000 113100 78130 78750 46140 30530 43320 2804 102400 5168 22780 176800 16440 36760 407600 76380 26780 14910 106300 71660 7945 77420 349500 27780 77790 47910 43320 5218 2165
2020-07-21 295800 1357000 19860 64060 9290 9930 14120 202900 13270 262000 202800 4464 244800 51770 40350 49420 38960 78280 33700 12750 2192000 112400 333600 206800 1167000 90240 277800 359900 357100 69790 776500 395200 221200 3953000 68640 33290 152200 412100 40790 47870 11320 13580 372000 136800 40350 16410 162300 57830 23330 23580 96200 113300 78570 79500 46480 31170 44160 2920 104100 5273 22970 177000 16750 37860 408200 77810 27420 15160 107200 72530 7967 79360 359000 28250 78610 48870 44090 5324 2199
2020-07-22 296400 1362000 19960 64190 9500 10090 14220 203000 13290 262600 203300 4541 244900 51860 40550 49740 39470 78410 33770 13050 2229000 112700 335100 213400 1193000 91850 279300 366400 359500 71340 779200 409200 221900 4010000 70820 33880 152200 420300 41000 47930 11360 13670 384100 139600 41000 17260 163000 58590 23700 24030 98100 113500 78810 80170 46680 31770 44910 3063 106200 5388 23130 177300 17030 38880 408900 79070 28110 15460 108100 74000 7997 81030 367800 28700 79240 49740 44940 5452 2234
2020-07-23 297000 1366000 20050 64290 9570 10250 14250 203200 13310 263100 203700 4622 245100 51940 40740 50070 40140 78600 33850 13260 2248000 112900 336300 219100 1219000 93280 280600 372600 362000 72500 782100 421800 222100 4091000 71840 34180 152200 426800 41170 47990 11390 13760 394100 142200 41370 17690 163600 58670 24080 24380 99400 113700 78860 80910 46850 32300 45700 3241 107800 5489 23230 177600 17210 39840 409400 80470 28610 15680 109000 75170 8027 82660 375900 29130 79690 50590 45570 5527 2272
2020-07-24 297600 1370000 20120 64360 9700 10400 14330 203300 13350 263500 204000 4700 245200 52020 40900 50380 40690 78790 33910 13520 2283000 113100 337600 224300 1244000 94480 282200 377700 364200 73760 783400 434000 222400 4156000 72810 34910 152200 433800 41290 48040 11430 13830 403800 144300 41890 18200 164000 58920 24450 24760 100500 113800 78990 81500 46990 32740 46480 3376 109300 5585 23350 177700 17460 40670 410000 81870 29200 15930 109800 76340 8041 84330 384100 29640 79950 51410 46220 5617 2307
2020-07-25 298300 1374000 20210 64490 9890 10490 14410 203300 13370 263900 204400 4776 245400 52120 41010 50710 41370 78970 33980 13740 2314000 113200 338800 229600 1268000 96130 282900 383700 366300 74780 783700 445300 222800 4228000 74400 35320 152200 441100 41400 48070 11440 13900 413300 147100 42380 19020 164400 59010 24780 25180 102100 113900 79010 82050 47200 33280 46910 3497 111100 5678 23410 177900 17620 41640 410500 83050 29930 16210 110700 77200 8042 86020 392000 30140 80210 52300 47010 5731 2337
2020-07-26 298900 1377000 20270 64590 10050 10570 14510 203400 13400 264000 204700 4837 245500 52180 41110 51060 41920 79140 34050 13960 2342000 113500 339800 234600 1290000 97360 283500 388000 368200 75980 783700 456400 223000 4287000 75780 35830 152200 448100 41430 48110 11450 13960 422100 149200 42780 19670 164800 59150 25170 25530 103400 114100 79140 82620 47390 33620 47580 3600 112600 5753 23530 178100 17820 42590 411000 84230 30660 16440 111600 78380 8053 87390 399500 30560 80470 52930 47630 5824 2362
2020-07-27 299500 1380000 20310 64650 10210 10630 14580 203400 13430 264000 205000 4886 245600 52250 41240 51410 42430 79300 34110 14130 2366000 113500 340700 239700 1335000 98650 283800 392300 370000 76880 783700 468700 223300 4337000 76920 36330 152200 454400 41450 48150 11470 14020 431000 151300 43100 20210 165100 59170 25460 25830 104800 114100 79140 83280 47520 34050 47930 3726 114100 5819 23600 178300 17940 43480 411400 85320 31490 16630 112400 79540 8057 88790 407900 31040 80590 53530 48130 5904 2382

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.
[2020-06-24] Research presentation on short-term COVID-19 forecasting on 26 June (14:00 UK time) at the Quarterly Forecasting Forum of the IIF UK Chapter.
[2020-06-06] Removed Brazil from yesterday's forecasts (only; last observation 2020-06-05).
[2020-06-04] Data issues with confirmed cases for France.
Added an appendix to the short term paper with further forecast comparisons for European and Latin American countries.
Both Sweden and Iran have lost their peak in confirmed cases. For Sweden the previous peak was on 24 April (daily peak of 656 cases), for Iran it was on 31 March (peak of 3116). For Iran this looks like a second wave, with increasing daily counts for the last four weeks. For Sweden this is a sudden jump in confirmed cases in the last two days, compared to a fairly steady weekly pattern over the previous six weeks.
[2020-05-20] Problem with UK confirmed cases: negative daily count. This makes the forecasts temporarily unreliable.
Updated the second paper.
[2020-05-18] Minor fixes to the improved version of scenario forecasting, backported to 2020-05-13.
[2020-05-13] We now omit countries with fewer than 200 confirmed cases in the last week (25 for deaths).
The short-term paper has some small updates, including further comparisons with other models.
Data for Ecuador are not reliable enough for forecasting.
Switched to an improved version of scenario forecasting.
[2020-05-06] The New York Times is in the process of redefining its US state data. Unfortunately, at the moment only the last observation has changed (e.g New York deaths jumped from 19645 on 2020-05-05 to 25956 a day later). This means the data is currently useless; however it does bring it close to the Johns Hopkins/CSSE count (25626 on 2020-05-06). The aggregate US count is based on JH/CSSE so unaffected. We now use Johns Hopkins/CSSE US state data, including all states with sufficient counts. So the new forecasts cannot be compared to those previously.
A minor change is that we show the graph without scenario forecast if no peak has been detected yet.
[2020-04-29] See our blog entry at the International Institute of Forecasters.
US history of death counts revised in Johns Hopkins/CSSE data.
UK death counts have been revised to include the deaths in care homes. In the Johns Hopkins/CSSE data set, which we use, the entire history has been revised. So forecasts made up to 2020-04-29 cannot be compared to later outcomes. In the ECDC data set only the last observation has changed, causing a jump in the series.
[2020-04-27] Our short-term COVID-19 forecasting paper is now available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06.
A small adjustment has been made to the scenario forecast methodology, and will be documented shortly.
[2020-04-24] A summary of our work on short-term COVID-19 forecasting appeared as a voxeu.
[2020-04-17] Bird and Nielsen look into nowcasting death counts in England.
[2020-04-16] Added scenario forecasts to all graphs now. This would now be the preferred forecast for most.
This is the first time with a peak in confirmed UK cases (also for deaths, but this is uncertain because it is at the same date).
[2020-04-10] Updated documentation with better description of short-term estimates and peak determination.
[2020-04-09] Added table with estimated peak dates (if happened) and dates to and since the peak. Note that this can be a local peak, and subsequent re-acceleration (or data revisions) can result in a new peak later.
[2020-04-08] Minor correction to peak estimates. Added table with scenario forecasts.
[2020-04-06] Added a post hoc estimate of the peak number of cases. This needs at least three confirmed observations (four for deaths) after the event. It is based on the averaged smooth trend, and can change later or be a local peak. It is marked with a vertical line with the date label, or a date with left arrow in the bottom left corner of the graph. This is backported to 2020-04-04.
[2020-04-02] Now including more US States, based on New York Times data.
[2020-03-31] Scenario forecasts, based on what happened in China earlier this year, are presented for several countries (line marked with x). Created more plausible 90% confidence bands (dotted line in same colour).
[2020-03-26] Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, only for Italy.
[2020-03-24] Our forecasts are starting to overestimate in some cases. This was always expected to happen when the increase starts to slow down. Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, but only for Italy and Spain sofar.

Initial visual evaluation of forecasts of Confirmed