COVID-19 short-term forecasts

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in Europe 2020-07-18

	UK	EU	AT	BE	BG	BS	CZ	DE	DK	ES	FI	FR	GR	HR	HU	IE	IT	NL	PL	PT	RO	SE	NO	CH
Peak date	04-07	04-02	03-26	04-15	--	03-28	04-03	03-27	04-06	03-30	04-04	04-12	04-21	--	04-10	04-10	03-24	03-31	06-08	04-10	--	06-03	03-26	03-27
Peak daily increment	4725	29651	810	1470		278	283	5661	316	8058	146	19785	86		105	1116	5650	1079	426	830		1337	240	1139
Days from 100 to peak	36	37	18	38		15	22	25	28	26	22	42	40		20	27	30	25	85	28		88	19	22
Days from peak/2 to peak	24	24	13	32		14	21	14	27	17	22	24	44		23	21	20	19	82	23		82	18	17
Last total	294066	1342671	19573	63706	8638	9419	13855	202426	13173	260255	7318	201285	3983	4253	4315	25750	244216	51581	39746	48390	36691	77281	9028	33492
Last daily increment	827	3105	134	207	196	82	113	381	0	0	17	-163	19	116	22	20	249	127	339	313	889	0	3	110
Last week	4463	29667	676	999	1386	611	681	2507	227	6347	24	3102	180	531	81	122	1155	559	1855	1878	4156	2383	47	609
Days since peak	102	107	114	94		112	106	113	103	110	105	97	88		99	99	116	109	40	99		45	114	113

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed 2020-07-18

	Australia	Brazil	Canada	Chile	Colombia	India	Indonesia	Iran	Mexico	Peru	Philippines	Russia	South Africa	Turkey	US	US-AL	US-AR	US-AZ	US-CA	US-CO	US-CT	US-DC	US-DE	US-FL	US-GA	US-IA	US-ID	US-IL	US-IN	US-KS	US-KY	US-LA	US-MA	US-MD	US-ME	US-MI	US-MN	US-MO	US-MS	US-MT	US-NC	US-ND	US-NE	US-NH	US-NJ	US-NM	US-NV	US-NY	US-OH	US-OK	US-OR	US-PA	US-SC	US-SD	US-TN	US-TX	US-UT	US-VA	US-WA	US-WI	US-WV	US-WY
Peak date	--	--	05-03	06-17	--	--	07-10	04-01	--	05-30	--	05-09	--	04-14	--	--	--	--	--	04-24	04-20	05-01	04-26	--	--	--	--	05-12	--	--	--	--	04-24	05-06	05-22	04-06	05-24	--	--	--	--	--	05-01	05-01	04-08	--	--	03-31	07-03	--	--	04-09	--	05-09	--	--	--	05-26	--	--	--	04-21
Peak daily increment			1984	30872			1709	2861		5879		10909		4816						729	1012	190	197					2693					3307	1017	48	1624	673						441	89	4272			9432	2115			1624		148				1076				86
Days from 100 to peak			51	93			117	36		73		52		27						40	30	39	32					58					40	48	59	21	65						34	38	24			20	106			23		39				68				22
Days from peak/2 to peak			43	48			106	29		53		34		19						35	27	40	32					48					30	41	65	15	59						29	41	16			12	98			16		41				60				27
Last total	11802	2074860	111875	328846	190700	1077781	84882	271606	338913	349500	65304	764215	350879	218717	3711413	64180	31410	141265	380745	39770	47665	11194	13287	337168	126721	38284	14303	160576	55654	21693	22178	88586	112833	77206	3641	76939	45381	29140	41846	2471	98092	4907	22366	6188	176148	15781	34477	406305	73821	25057	14149	104780	67612	7862	73186	327106	26602	76373	45943	41485	4894	2108
Last daily increment	361	28532	316	2407	8560	38697	1752	2166	7615	3963	2303	6214	13285	918	63698	2069	747	2742	7486	444	0	79	84	10310	3748	415	550	1274	841	305	573	0	352	835	8	722	453	856	1017	105	2522	115	119	23	227	264	1182	754	1541	917	347	701	1552	73	2402	9338	581	940	961	978	111	39
Last week	1822	210179	2527	13805	40255	199527	9183	14303	39163	23174	9045	38179	74637	5724	406471	11272	4116	18798	56202	2875	608	347	587	67654	19793	2909	3401	6713	4042	2712	2798	10468	1616	4097	112	4533	3188	4373	5559	713	12321	573	1310	140	1515	1689	6794	4599	8229	4822	1979	4986	10964	363	13532	64344	2915	5703	5424	5037	650	246
Days since peak			76	31			8	108		49		70		95						85	89	78	83					67					85	73	57	103	55						78	78	101			109	15			100		70				53				88

Confirmed count forecast Europe (bold red line in graphs) 2020-07-19 to 2020-07-25

Date	UK	EU	AT	BE	BG	BS	CZ	DE	DK	ES	FR	HR	IT	NL	PL	PT	RO	SE	CH
2020-07-18	294066	1342671	19573	63706	8638	9419	13855	202426	13173	260255	201285	4253	244216	51581	39746	48390	36691	77281	33492
2020-07-19	294100	1346000	19680	63710	8820	9495	13990	202600	13190	260300	201800	4261	244400	51580	40030	48720	37720	77690	33580
2020-07-20	294600	1350000	19770	63720	9000	9549	14110	202900	13210	260300	202200	4324	244500	51650	40310	49050	38610	78120	33670
2020-07-21	295500	1354000	19870	63730	9240	9648	14240	203200	13240	260300	202600	4384	244600	51700	40590	49380	39660	78550	33760
2020-07-22	296000	1358000	19970	63740	9510	9723	14360	203600	13260	260300	203000	4484	244800	51780	40860	49700	40750	78990	33840
2020-07-23	296500	1362000	20060	63750	9800	9808	14490	204000	13280	260300	203500	4577	245000	51870	41130	50030	42010	79430	33930
2020-07-24	297100	1366000	20160	63760	10100	9866	14620	204500	13300	260300	203900	4683	245200	51950	41400	50350	43270	79870	34010
2020-07-25	297900	1370000	20260	63770	10380	9937	14740	204800	13320	260300	204300	4798	245400	52050	41670	50680	44570	80310	34100

Confirmed count forecast (bold red line in graphs) 2020-07-19 to 2020-07-25

Date	Australia	Brazil	Canada	Chile	Colombia	India	Indonesia	Iran	Mexico	Peru	Philippines	Russia	South Africa	Turkey	US	US-AL	US-AR	US-AZ	US-CA	US-CO	US-CT	US-DC	US-DE	US-FL	US-GA	US-IA	US-ID	US-IL	US-IN	US-KS	US-KY	US-LA	US-MA	US-MD	US-MI	US-MN	US-MO	US-MS	US-MT	US-NC	US-ND	US-NE	US-NJ	US-NM	US-NV	US-NY	US-OH	US-OK	US-OR	US-PA	US-SC	US-SD	US-TN	US-TX	US-UT	US-VA	US-WA	US-WI	US-WV	US-WY
2020-07-18	11802	2074860	111875	328846	190700	1077781	84882	271606	338913	349500	65304	764215	350879	218717	3711413	64180	31410	141265	380745	39770	47665	11194	13287	337168	126721	38284	14303	160576	55654	21693	22178	88586	112833	77206	76939	45381	29140	41846	2471	98092	4907	22366	176148	15781	34477	406305	73821	25057	14149	104780	67612	7862	73186	327106	26602	76373	45943	41485	4894	2108
2020-07-19	12160	2118000	112200	331500	195300	1118000	86420	273600	348300	353000	66890	770500	366200	219700	3820000	65810	32280	144900	389100	40100	47760	11270	13390	348300	130700	38780	14990	161400	56850	22350	22780	89260	112900	77900	77360	45890	30100	41950	2626	101300	5054	22540	176400	16040	35850	407000	75120	26070	14540	105100	69160	7920	76360	337600	27520	77310	46880	42650	5204	2143
2020-07-20	12510	2137000	112500	334100	201100	1161000	87900	275500	357700	356400	68390	776700	382500	220800	3936000	68150	33200	148900	397600	40410	47830	11340	13490	359500	134700	39070	15690	162300	58120	23240	23410	90060	113100	78570	77840	46370	31090	42520	2749	104500	5188	22720	176700	16290	37120	407600	76370	27120	14950	105700	70690	7976	79570	349000	28260	78220	48320	43520	5312	2176
2020-07-21	12850	2177000	112800	336700	208300	1205000	89390	277500	369600	359800	69880	782800	399300	221800	4053000	70150	34140	152800	409400	40820	47910	11410	13590	370600	139000	39360	16400	163100	59390	23630	24050	90830	113400	79240	78520	46860	32110	43400	2898	107800	5277	22900	176900	16540	38710	408300	77640	28190	15370	106600	72220	8034	82950	363300	28970	79130	49370	44750	5376	2209
2020-07-22	13180	2218000	113100	339300	216400	1256000	90850	279400	382000	363100	71320	788900	417100	222800	4178000	72410	35130	156900	418300	41270	47980	11470	13680	381800	144100	39900	17140	164200	60740	24350	24710	91620	113600	79890	79450	47340	33160	44250	3042	110900	5400	23070	177200	16790	39990	408900	78880	29310	15800	107400	73740	8089	86460	378400	29720	80030	50480	45900	5533	2242
2020-07-23	13520	2262000	113400	341800	224500	1311000	92320	281300	394000	366500	72770	795000	435700	223800	4307000	75100	36160	161100	427700	41760	48060	11540	13780	393100	148400	40620	17910	165300	62130	25130	25390	92430	113800	80550	80020	47820	34250	45280	3213	114200	5542	23240	177500	17040	41820	409600	80120	30470	16250	108100	75270	8145	90120	397300	30590	80940	52020	47200	5663	2274
2020-07-24	13860	2298000	113700	344500	235200	1366000	93800	283200	407600	369800	74230	801100	455100	224800	4440000	77670	37220	165400	436000	42320	48140	11610	13870	404600	153800	41210	18710	166600	63540	25940	26090	93240	114100	81200	80720	48300	35380	46320	3381	117800	5691	23410	177700	17290	43830	410200	81380	31680	16700	109100	76820	8201	93940	413700	31460	81850	53260	48540	5787	2307
2020-07-25	14200	2327000	114000	347100	246200	1426000	95300	285200	421400	373200	75710	807200	475300	225800	4576000	80370	38320	169700	443800	42740	48210	11670	13970	416200	159600	41620	19550	167800	64990	26570	26800	94060	114400	81860	81320	48790	36550	47220	3479	121500	5850	23590	178000	17550	45570	410900	82640	32930	17170	109700	78390	8257	97920	428100	32320	82770	54230	49970	5903	2341

Confirmed count average forecast Europe (bold black line in graphs) 2020-07-19 to 2020-07-25

Date	UK	EU	AT	BE	BG	BS	CZ	DE	DK	ES	FR	HR	IT	NL	PL	PT	RO	SE	CH
2020-07-18	294066	1342671	19573	63706	8638	9419	13855	202426	13173	260255	201285	4253	244216	51581	39746	48390	36691	77281	33492
2020-07-19	294200	1344000	19620	63760	8740	9490	13890	202500	13180	260700	201500	4293	244300	51590	39910	48710	37500	77350	33550
2020-07-20	294500	1346000	19690	63830	8980	9540	13930	202600	13200	261400	201900	4364	244400	51620	40180	49030	38330	77620	33620
2020-07-21	295200	1349000	19760	63900	9280	9640	14020	202700	13220	262100	202200	4443	244400	51670	40450	49360	39340	77810	33700
2020-07-22	295600	1351000	19850	63980	9590	9720	14110	202900	13240	262700	202500	4528	244500	51740	40720	49680	40390	78060	33770
2020-07-23	296000	1354000	19940	64080	9970	9840	14210	203200	13260	263400	202900	4613	244600	51810	40990	50000	41560	78450	33850
2020-07-24	296400	1356000	20030	64170	10350	9930	14290	203400	13280	264100	203200	4702	244700	51860	41270	50320	42740	78690	33920
2020-07-25	296900	1358000	20120	64270	10710	10020	14380	203500	13300	264800	203500	4793	244800	51920	41550	50650	43970	78870	34000

Confirmed count average forecast (bold black line in graphs) 2020-07-19 to 2020-07-25

Date	Australia	Brazil	Canada	Chile	Colombia	India	Indonesia	Iran	Mexico	Peru	Philippines	Russia	South Africa	Turkey	US	US-AL	US-AR	US-AZ	US-CA	US-CO	US-CT	US-DC	US-DE	US-FL	US-GA	US-IA	US-ID	US-IL	US-IN	US-KS	US-KY	US-LA	US-MA	US-MD	US-MI	US-MN	US-MO	US-MS	US-MT	US-NC	US-ND	US-NE	US-NJ	US-NM	US-NV	US-NY	US-OH	US-OK	US-OR	US-PA	US-SC	US-SD	US-TN	US-TX	US-UT	US-VA	US-WA	US-WI	US-WV	US-WY
2020-07-18	11802	2074860	111875	328846	190700	1077781	84882	271606	338913	349500	65304	764215	350879	218717	3711413	64180	31410	141265	380745	39770	47665	11194	13287	337168	126721	38284	14303	160576	55654	21693	22178	88586	112833	77206	76939	45381	29140	41846	2471	98092	4907	22366	176148	15781	34477	406305	73821	25057	14149	104780	67612	7862	73186	327106	26602	76373	45943	41485	4894	2108
2020-07-19	11970	2093000	112000	330300	195800	1119000	86040	273200	346800	352100	66110	768800	365200	219600	3803000	66190	32220	145100	387800	40050	47730	11230	13350	347400	129500	38730	14940	161200	56660	22190	22690	90000	112800	77520	77280	45840	29860	42170	2566	100700	5032	22540	176400	16010	35550	406800	74640	25870	14540	105200	69180	7903	75160	337600	27260	77150	46970	42500	5036	2129
2020-07-20	12210	2111000	112300	332500	202600	1162000	87310	275100	356200	355500	67500	774200	382600	220400	3918000	68610	33150	150000	395800	40400	47800	11280	13430	359300	133900	39200	15660	162100	57860	22920	23310	91900	112900	78050	77770	46380	30680	42860	2673	103700	5183	22730	176600	16280	36810	407500	75860	26780	14920	105900	70920	7952	78150	349700	27980	78030	48230	43500	5184	2164
2020-07-21	12440	2150000	112500	334700	210500	1207000	88760	277000	367600	358900	68980	779300	400200	221300	4043000	70880	34110	155000	407000	40830	47880	11330	13530	371300	138400	39670	16400	163100	59130	23500	23940	93800	113100	78690	78400	46910	31700	43730	2797	107000	5300	22920	176900	16520	38210	408100	77020	27850	15360	106700	72760	8008	80800	364400	28680	78910	49250	44740	5323	2199
2020-07-22	12690	2191000	112700	336800	218900	1257000	90300	278900	379200	362300	70540	784400	418800	222200	4174000	73370	35110	160200	415600	41300	47950	11400	13620	383700	143400	40210	17180	164100	60450	24210	24600	95900	113200	79320	79150	47450	32680	44610	2925	110000	5424	23110	177100	16810	39500	408700	78360	28940	15780	107500	74630	8075	83840	380000	29410	79800	50340	45950	5490	2233
2020-07-23	12980	2232000	113000	339100	227800	1311000	92110	280800	391200	365800	72120	789400	439100	223100	4313000	76100	36140	165600	424800	41780	48020	11440	13720	395500	148500	40800	17990	165100	61780	24910	25270	97800	113400	79910	79700	47990	33700	45520	3070	113100	5584	23310	177400	17100	41030	409400	79590	29990	16310	108300	76510	8139	86960	399100	30200	80690	51650	47190	5691	2269
2020-07-24	13200	2285000	113200	341300	237700	1367000	93840	282600	404100	369200	73750	794000	461800	224000	4454000	78850	37210	171100	433000	42340	48100	11490	13820	408900	155000	41360	18840	166100	63200	25760	25970	100100	113500	80500	80360	48540	34750	46500	3231	116800	5742	23500	177600	17400	42630	410000	80990	31060	16790	109100	78480	8209	90220	415600	31050	81590	52720	48570	5874	2305
2020-07-25	13470	2326000	113400	343600	247600	1424000	95660	284400	416800	372700	75400	798600	484700	224900	4596000	81580	38300	176800	441000	42760	48170	11550	13920	422600	161200	41870	19730	167200	64650	26490	26680	102100	113600	81090	80950	49090	35790	47360	3358	120300	5907	23700	177900	17690	44210	410700	82330	32220	17350	109800	80610	8271	93480	431500	31890	82500	53590	50050	6095	2341

Confirmed count scenario forecast (bold purple line in graphs) 2020-07-19 to 2020-07-27

Date	UK	EU	AT	BE	BG	BS	CZ	DE	DK	ES	FR	HR	IT	NL	PL	PT	RO	SE	CH	Australia	Brazil	Canada	Chile	Colombia	India	Indonesia	Iran	Mexico	Peru	Philippines	Russia	South Africa	Turkey	US	US-AL	US-AR	US-AZ	US-CA	US-CO	US-CT	US-DC	US-DE	US-FL	US-GA	US-IA	US-ID	US-IL	US-IN	US-KS	US-KY	US-LA	US-MA	US-MD	US-MI	US-MN	US-MO	US-MS	US-MT	US-NC	US-ND	US-NE	US-NJ	US-NM	US-NV	US-NY	US-OH	US-OK	US-OR	US-PA	US-SC	US-SD	US-TN	US-TX	US-UT	US-VA	US-WA	US-WI	US-WV	US-WY
2020-07-18	294066	1342671	19573	63706	8638	9419	13855	202426	13173	260255	201285	4253	244216	51581	39746	48390	36691	77281	33492	11802	2074860	111875	328846	190700	1077781	84882	271606	338913	349500	65304	764215	350879	218717	3711413	64180	31410	141265	380745	39770	47665	11194	13287	337168	126721	38284	14303	160576	55654	21693	22178	88586	112833	77206	76939	45381	29140	41846	2471	98092	4907	22366	176148	15781	34477	406305	73821	25057	14149	104780	67612	7862	73186	327106	26602	76373	45943	41485	4894	2108
2020-07-19	294500	1347000	19650	63780	8920	9600	13930	202400	13200	260800	201800	4323	244400	51610	39890	48750	37450	77830	33550	12160	2120000	112000	330400	195600	1108000	86890	273900	346300	351500	66720	768400	367800	219700	3801000	65880	32170	147100	394300	40170	47750	11240	13390	349400	131200	39090	15240	161100	56700	22520	22670	92900	112900	77640	77940	45760	29890	42720	2654	100300	5047	22570	176500	16160	35610	406900	75070	25900	14620	105500	69550	7893	75310	338300	27220	77040	46960	42470	5094	2130
2020-07-20	295200	1352000	19750	63930	9150	9770	14040	202700	13230	261700	202300	4391	244600	51680	40140	49100	38290	78060	33620	12460	2155000	112100	332000	201400	1138000	88720	276200	353000	354400	68210	773400	382200	220500	3875000	68070	32690	152200	403900	40510	47810	11280	13480	361100	134100	39710	15930	161700	57270	22940	23050	95000	113100	78130	78750	46140	30530	43320	2804	102400	5168	22780	176800	16440	36760	407600	76380	26780	14910	106300	71660	7945	77420	349500	27780	77790	47910	43320	5218	2165
2020-07-21	295800	1357000	19860	64060	9290	9930	14120	202900	13270	262000	202800	4464	244800	51770	40350	49420	38960	78280	33700	12750	2192000	112400	333600	206800	1167000	90240	277800	359900	357100	69790	776500	395200	221200	3953000	68640	33290	152200	412100	40790	47870	11320	13580	372000	136800	40350	16410	162300	57830	23330	23580	96200	113300	78570	79500	46480	31170	44160	2920	104100	5273	22970	177000	16750	37860	408200	77810	27420	15160	107200	72530	7967	79360	359000	28250	78610	48870	44090	5324	2199
2020-07-22	296400	1362000	19960	64190	9500	10090	14220	203000	13290	262600	203300	4541	244900	51860	40550	49740	39470	78410	33770	13050	2229000	112700	335100	213400	1193000	91850	279300	366400	359500	71340	779200	409200	221900	4010000	70820	33880	152200	420300	41000	47930	11360	13670	384100	139600	41000	17260	163000	58590	23700	24030	98100	113500	78810	80170	46680	31770	44910	3063	106200	5388	23130	177300	17030	38880	408900	79070	28110	15460	108100	74000	7997	81030	367800	28700	79240	49740	44940	5452	2234
2020-07-23	297000	1366000	20050	64290	9570	10250	14250	203200	13310	263100	203700	4622	245100	51940	40740	50070	40140	78600	33850	13260	2248000	112900	336300	219100	1219000	93280	280600	372600	362000	72500	782100	421800	222100	4091000	71840	34180	152200	426800	41170	47990	11390	13760	394100	142200	41370	17690	163600	58670	24080	24380	99400	113700	78860	80910	46850	32300	45700	3241	107800	5489	23230	177600	17210	39840	409400	80470	28610	15680	109000	75170	8027	82660	375900	29130	79690	50590	45570	5527	2272
2020-07-24	297600	1370000	20120	64360	9700	10400	14330	203300	13350	263500	204000	4700	245200	52020	40900	50380	40690	78790	33910	13520	2283000	113100	337600	224300	1244000	94480	282200	377700	364200	73760	783400	434000	222400	4156000	72810	34910	152200	433800	41290	48040	11430	13830	403800	144300	41890	18200	164000	58920	24450	24760	100500	113800	78990	81500	46990	32740	46480	3376	109300	5585	23350	177700	17460	40670	410000	81870	29200	15930	109800	76340	8041	84330	384100	29640	79950	51410	46220	5617	2307
2020-07-25	298300	1374000	20210	64490	9890	10490	14410	203300	13370	263900	204400	4776	245400	52120	41010	50710	41370	78970	33980	13740	2314000	113200	338800	229600	1268000	96130	282900	383700	366300	74780	783700	445300	222800	4228000	74400	35320	152200	441100	41400	48070	11440	13900	413300	147100	42380	19020	164400	59010	24780	25180	102100	113900	79010	82050	47200	33280	46910	3497	111100	5678	23410	177900	17620	41640	410500	83050	29930	16210	110700	77200	8042	86020	392000	30140	80210	52300	47010	5731	2337
2020-07-26	298900	1377000	20270	64590	10050	10570	14510	203400	13400	264000	204700	4837	245500	52180	41110	51060	41920	79140	34050	13960	2342000	113500	339800	234600	1290000	97360	283500	388000	368200	75980	783700	456400	223000	4287000	75780	35830	152200	448100	41430	48110	11450	13960	422100	149200	42780	19670	164800	59150	25170	25530	103400	114100	79140	82620	47390	33620	47580	3600	112600	5753	23530	178100	17820	42590	411000	84230	30660	16440	111600	78380	8053	87390	399500	30560	80470	52930	47630	5824	2362
2020-07-27	299500	1380000	20310	64650	10210	10630	14580	203400	13430	264000	205000	4886	245600	52250	41240	51410	42430	79300	34110	14130	2366000	113500	340700	239700	1335000	98650	283800	392300	370000	76880	783700	468700	223300	4337000	76920	36330	152200	454400	41450	48150	11470	14020	431000	151300	43100	20210	165100	59170	25460	25830	104800	114100	79140	83280	47520	34050	47930	3726	114100	5819	23600	178300	17940	43480	411400	85320	31490	16630	112400	79540	8057	88790	407900	31040	80590	53530	48130	5904	2382

Further information

We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
The forecasts are constructed as follows:
1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.
[2020-06-24] Research presentation on short-term COVID-19 forecasting on 26 June (14:00 UK time) at the Quarterly Forecasting Forum of the IIF UK Chapter.
[2020-06-06] Removed Brazil from yesterday's forecasts (only; last observation 2020-06-05).
[2020-06-04] Data issues with confirmed cases for France.
Added an appendix to the short term paper with further forecast comparisons for European and Latin American countries.
Both Sweden and Iran have lost their peak in confirmed cases. For Sweden the previous peak was on 24 April (daily peak of 656 cases), for Iran it was on 31 March (peak of 3116). For Iran this looks like a second wave, with increasing daily counts for the last four weeks. For Sweden this is a sudden jump in confirmed cases in the last two days, compared to a fairly steady weekly pattern over the previous six weeks.
[2020-05-20] Problem with UK confirmed cases: negative daily count. This makes the forecasts temporarily unreliable.
Updated the second paper.
[2020-05-18] Minor fixes to the improved version of scenario forecasting, backported to 2020-05-13.
[2020-05-13] We now omit countries with fewer than 200 confirmed cases in the last week (25 for deaths).
The short-term paper has some small updates, including further comparisons with other models.
Data for Ecuador are not reliable enough for forecasting.
Switched to an improved version of scenario forecasting.
[2020-05-06] The New York Times is in the process of redefining its US state data. Unfortunately, at the moment only the last observation has changed (e.g New York deaths jumped from 19645 on 2020-05-05 to 25956 a day later). This means the data is currently useless; however it does bring it close to the Johns Hopkins/CSSE count (25626 on 2020-05-06). The aggregate US count is based on JH/CSSE so unaffected. We now use Johns Hopkins/CSSE US state data, including all states with sufficient counts. So the new forecasts cannot be compared to those previously.
A minor change is that we show the graph without scenario forecast if no peak has been detected yet.
[2020-04-29] See our blog entry at the International Institute of Forecasters.
US history of death counts revised in Johns Hopkins/CSSE data.
UK death counts have been revised to include the deaths in care homes. In the Johns Hopkins/CSSE data set, which we use, the entire history has been revised. So forecasts made up to 2020-04-29 cannot be compared to later outcomes. In the ECDC data set only the last observation has changed, causing a jump in the series.
[2020-04-27] Our short-term COVID-19 forecasting paper is now available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06.
A small adjustment has been made to the scenario forecast methodology, and will be documented shortly.
[2020-04-24] A summary of our work on short-term COVID-19 forecasting appeared as a voxeu.
[2020-04-17] Bird and Nielsen look into nowcasting death counts in England.
[2020-04-16] Added scenario forecasts to all graphs now. This would now be the preferred forecast for most.
This is the first time with a peak in confirmed UK cases (also for deaths, but this is uncertain because it is at the same date).
[2020-04-10] Updated documentation with better description of short-term estimates and peak determination.
[2020-04-09] Added table with estimated peak dates (if happened) and dates to and since the peak. Note that this can be a local peak, and subsequent re-acceleration (or data revisions) can result in a new peak later.
[2020-04-08] Minor correction to peak estimates. Added table with scenario forecasts.
[2020-04-06] Added a post hoc estimate of the peak number of cases. This needs at least three confirmed observations (four for deaths) after the event. It is based on the averaged smooth trend, and can change later or be a local peak. It is marked with a vertical line with the date label, or a date with left arrow in the bottom left corner of the graph. This is backported to 2020-04-04.
[2020-04-02] Now including more US States, based on New York Times data.
[2020-03-31] Scenario forecasts, based on what happened in China earlier this year, are presented for several countries (line marked with x). Created more plausible 90% confidence bands (dotted line in same colour).
[2020-03-26] Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, only for Italy.
[2020-03-24] Our forecasts are starting to overestimate in some cases. This was always expected to happen when the increase starts to slow down. Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, but only for Italy and Spain sofar.

COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2020-07-18

Gnereal information