COVID-19 short-term forecasts

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in Europe 2020-07-22

	UK	EU	AT	BE	BG	BS	CZ	DE	DK	ES	FI	FR	GR	HR	HU	IE	IT	NL	PL	PT	RO	SE	SI	SK	NO	CH
Peak date	04-07	04-02	03-26	04-15	--	03-28	04-03	03-27	04-06	03-30	04-04	04-12	04-21	07-19	04-10	04-10	03-24	03-31	06-08	04-10	--	06-03	03-31	04-16	03-26	03-27
Peak daily increment	4725	29656	810	1470		278	283	5661	316	8057	146	19785	86	88	105	1116	5648	1079	426	830		1337	52	49	240	1139
Days from 100 to peak	36	37	18	38		15	22	25	28	26	22	42	40	122	20	27	30	25	85	28		88	18	28	19	22
Days from peak/2 to peak	24	24	13	32		14	21	14	27	17	22	24	44	126	23	21	20	19	82	23		82	21	34	18	17
Last total	296377	1367744	19929	64627	9584	9830	14570	204276	13350	267551	7362	204641	4077	4530	4366	25819	245032	52241	41162	49150	40163	78504	2006	2058	9059	33883
Last daily increment	560	6794	102	369	330	134	246	559	48	1357	11	945	29	108	19	17	280	168	380	252	1030	338	29	37	6	141
Last week	3825	34343	659	1389	1440	627	958	2826	226	8696	69	3902	138	491	87	121	1296	890	2108	1385	5160	1627	109	107	44	593
Days since peak	106	111	118	98		116	110	117	107	114	109	101	92	3	103	103	120	113	44	103		49	113	97	118	117

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed 2020-07-22

	Australia	Brazil	Canada	Chile	Colombia	India	Indonesia	Iran	Mexico	Peru	Philippines	Russia	South Africa	Turkey	US	US-AK	US-AL	US-AR	US-AZ	US-CA	US-CO	US-CT	US-DC	US-DE	US-FL	US-GA	US-IA	US-ID	US-IL	US-IN	US-KS	US-KY	US-LA	US-MA	US-MD	US-ME	US-MI	US-MN	US-MO	US-MS	US-MT	US-NC	US-ND	US-NE	US-NH	US-NJ	US-NM	US-NV	US-NY	US-OH	US-OK	US-OR	US-PA	US-SC	US-SD	US-TN	US-TX	US-UT	US-VA	US-WA	US-WI	US-WV	US-WY
Peak date	--	--	05-03	06-17	--	--	07-09	04-01	07-18	05-30	07-19	05-09	07-16	04-14	07-17	--	07-16	--	07-04	--	--	04-20	05-01	04-26	07-17	--	07-17	--	05-12	--	--	--	--	04-24	05-06	05-22	04-06	05-24	--	--	07-18	--	--	05-01	05-01	04-08	--	--	03-31	07-03	07-15	--	04-09	--	05-09	--	--	07-19	05-26	--	--	07-17	04-21
Peak daily increment			1984	31281			1886	2861	6348	5879	1774	10906	13437	4816	70468		1912		3515			1012	190	197	11738		546		2693					3307	1017	48	1624	673			125			441	89	4272			9432	1856	724		1624		148			505	1076			136	86
Days from 100 to peak			51	93			116	36	123	73	125	52	120	27	134		118		104			30	39	32	125		116		58					40	48	59	21	65			113			34	38	24			20	106	113		23		39			120	68			110	22
Days from peak/2 to peak			43	48			104	29	100	53	114	34	73	19	116		107		92			27	40	32	108		111		49					30	41	65	15	59			115			29	41	16			12	98	108		16		41			117	60			111	27
Last total	13302	2227514	113790	334683	218428	1238798	91751	281413	362274	366550	72269	787890	394948	222402	3970906	2131	70413	33980	150609	421286	41680	47993	11529	13631	379199	137203	40195	16322	165259	58673	23481	24540	99345	113912	80172	3719	79338	47839	32395	47071	2812	105276	5367	23359	6295	176963	16867	38657	408886	78742	27298	15393	108187	75042	8077	79442	363615	28390	80393	49101	44847	5212	2288
Last daily increment	408	67860	317	0	7390	45720	1882	2586	6019	4463	1505	5850	13150	902	71695	89	1338	532	1926	11981	639	133	102	43	9776	3018	490	499	1609	757	552	484	2768	283	627	19	707	493	1125	1547	101	2060	160	289	33	395	305	1129	705	1527	972	254	727	1705	58	1058	12544	462	1022	705	712	40	50
Last week	2069	215363	2646	10985	45222	234966	10083	14352	38233	24964	11003	36278	70727	5529	394749	438	10255	3886	15996	56580	2972	469	453	638	63796	17665	2888	3188	7332	4593	2664	3458	12937	1730	4508	125	3892	3583	4888	7274	581	11568	699	1342	156	1098	1666	6742	4111	8141	3858	1884	5112	10959	383	10811	57761	2870	5962	4988	5220	555	262
Days since peak			80	35			13	112	4	53	3	74	6	99	5		6		18			93	82	87	5		5		71					89	77	61	107	59			4			82	82	105			113	19	7		104		74			3	57			5	92

Confirmed count forecast Europe (bold red line in graphs) 2020-07-23 to 2020-07-29

Date	UK	EU	AT	BE	BG	BS	CZ	DE	DK	ES	FR	HR	IT	NL	PL	PT	RO	SE	CH
2020-07-22	296377	1367744	19929	64627	9584	9830	14570	204276	13350	267551	204641	4530	245032	52241	41162	49150	40163	78504	33883
2020-07-23	296700	1376000	20020	64860	10070	10010	14720	204400	13380	268700	204600	4606	245200	52300	41470	49430	41970	79560	33980
2020-07-24	297400	1383000	20120	65090	10460	10130	14850	204900	13400	269700	204900	4709	245400	52420	41760	49710	43560	79810	34070
2020-07-25	298100	1391000	20210	65310	10740	10210	14980	205300	13430	270700	205400	4824	245600	52560	42060	49990	45240	79810	34170
2020-07-26	298700	1398000	20300	65530	10870	10330	15100	205600	13450	271600	205900	4894	245800	52680	42340	50270	46960	79810	34250
2020-07-27	299200	1404000	20390	65750	11170	10400	15230	206000	13480	272600	206300	4929	246000	52820	42630	50550	48760	80410	34340
2020-07-28	299900	1411000	20480	65970	11560	10500	15350	206400	13510	273500	206800	4983	246100	52950	42920	50840	50630	80410	34430
2020-07-29	300300	1418000	20570	66180	11930	10630	15470	206800	13530	274500	207300	5079	246300	53090	43200	51120	52570	80740	34520

Confirmed count forecast (bold red line in graphs) 2020-07-23 to 2020-07-29

Date	Australia	Brazil	Canada	Chile	Colombia	India	Indonesia	Iran	Mexico	Peru	Philippines	Russia	South Africa	Turkey	US	US-AK	US-AL	US-AR	US-AZ	US-CA	US-CO	US-CT	US-DC	US-DE	US-FL	US-GA	US-IA	US-ID	US-IL	US-IN	US-KS	US-KY	US-LA	US-MA	US-MD	US-MI	US-MN	US-MO	US-MS	US-MT	US-NC	US-ND	US-NE	US-NJ	US-NM	US-NV	US-NY	US-OH	US-OK	US-OR	US-PA	US-SC	US-SD	US-TN	US-TX	US-UT	US-VA	US-WA	US-WI	US-WV	US-WY
2020-07-22	13302	2227514	113790	334683	218428	1238798	91751	281413	362274	366550	72269	787890	394948	222402	3970906	2131	70413	33980	150609	421286	41680	47993	11529	13631	379199	137203	40195	16322	165259	58673	23481	24540	99345	113912	80172	79338	47839	32395	47071	2812	105276	5367	23359	176963	16867	38657	408886	78742	27298	15393	108187	75042	8077	79442	363615	28390	80393	49101	44847	5212	2288
2020-07-23	13780	2342000	114200	336400	226400	1293000	93400	284000	367900	371100	73890	793600	410000	223400	4033000	2214	72070	34870	155800	439100	42600	48050	11590	13730	389600	141000	40840	16830	165900	59900	23890	24960	103200	114000	80900	79940	48400	32960	48570	2963	107100	5595	23570	177200	17320	41240	409600	80100	27960	15700	108700	76850	8133	81220	375600	28890	81330	50480	45580	5265	2325
2020-07-24	14080	2440000	114500	338400	237000	1350000	95000	286500	375100	375500	75490	799300	422500	224300	4101000	2297	73720	35820	159500	452800	43570	48120	11640	13820	399700	144900	41420	17320	167300	61210	24290	25520	106600	114300	81610	80510	48930	33840	50130	3099	109000	5803	23760	177500	17770	43440	410200	81420	28570	16010	109700	78640	8188	82960	387200	29430	82250	51680	46450	5320	2360
2020-07-25	14480	2529000	114800	340300	246900	1410000	96600	289000	382100	379800	77080	804900	435400	225200	4161000	2382	75380	36790	161900	465200	44550	48190	11700	13910	409900	148900	41850	17820	168500	62540	24700	26100	108200	114600	82320	81090	49470	34760	51710	3208	110800	6017	23960	177700	18180	45570	410900	82720	29200	16310	110400	80420	8244	84670	398700	29960	83170	52750	47390	5375	2396
2020-07-26	14730	2614000	115200	342300	254800	1472000	98100	291400	386900	383900	78650	810400	448000	226100	4220000	2467	77030	37820	164300	479400	45590	48270	11750	14010	420000	153100	42370	18310	169400	63960	25100	26720	112200	114800	83020	81650	49980	35710	53350	3296	112600	6227	24150	178000	18560	47760	411500	84010	29790	16610	110900	82190	8298	86370	410200	30470	84080	54190	48140	5430	2430
2020-07-27	15060	2700000	115500	344300	262500	1535000	99700	293900	391600	388200	80230	815900	458700	227100	4279000	2555	78700	38880	165800	493700	46660	48340	11800	14100	430300	157400	42750	18800	170400	65410	25500	27350	116400	115000	83720	82200	50500	36690	55050	3405	114400	6489	24340	178200	18970	49570	412100	85300	30390	16910	111700	83970	8353	88090	421700	30820	84990	55490	48770	5486	2465
2020-07-28	15430	2811000	115800	346400	271000	1598000	101300	296300	398200	392400	81830	821500	468100	228000	4341000	2646	80390	39970	169300	512000	47750	48410	11850	14190	440700	161800	43090	19310	171300	66900	25910	28010	119700	115300	84420	82760	51020	37700	56810	3520	116200	6685	24520	178400	19400	51430	412800	86610	31000	17220	112700	85780	8408	89820	433400	31210	85910	56620	49800	5542	2500
2020-07-29	15820	2920000	116200	348400	281800	1664000	103000	298800	404400	396600	83440	827000	481400	228900	4408000	2740	82090	41090	171800	531100	48870	48480	11900	14280	451200	166300	43580	19820	172700	68430	26320	28670	123700	115500	85130	83320	51540	38730	58620	3632	118100	6869	24710	178700	19880	52900	413400	87920	31610	17530	113400	87610	8463	91570	445100	31650	86840	57700	50520	5599	2535

Confirmed count average forecast Europe (bold black line in graphs) 2020-07-23 to 2020-07-29

Date	UK	EU	AT	BE	BG	BS	CZ	DE	DK	ES	FR	HR	IT	NL	PL	PT	RO	SE	CH
2020-07-22	296377	1367744	19929	64627	9584	9830	14570	204276	13350	267551	204641	4530	245032	52241	41162	49150	40163	78504	33883
2020-07-23	296700	1369000	20010	64730	9940	9960	14590	204300	13360	268200	204700	4604	245100	52280	41340	49370	41230	78640	33930
2020-07-24	297300	1371000	20100	64860	10290	10080	14620	204500	13370	269000	204800	4697	245200	52350	41640	49650	42440	78800	34010
2020-07-25	298000	1374000	20190	65000	10570	10170	14680	204700	13380	269900	205000	4798	245300	52450	41940	49930	43720	78800	34090
2020-07-26	298500	1376000	20270	65150	10700	10290	14740	204800	13400	270800	205100	4881	245400	52560	42230	50200	44870	78800	34170
2020-07-27	299000	1380000	20340	65290	11010	10350	14820	205000	13420	271700	205500	4944	245500	52680	42520	50480	46000	79210	34250
2020-07-28	299600	1382000	20420	65450	11410	10460	14920	205100	13440	272700	205800	5018	245500	52770	42830	50760	47300	79350	34320
2020-07-29	300000	1385000	20510	65610	11790	10580	15000	205300	13460	273700	206100	5116	245600	52870	43130	51030	48620	79630	34400

Confirmed count average forecast (bold black line in graphs) 2020-07-23 to 2020-07-29

Date	Australia	Brazil	Canada	Chile	Colombia	India	Indonesia	Iran	Mexico	Peru	Philippines	Russia	South Africa	Turkey	US	US-AK	US-AL	US-AR	US-AZ	US-CA	US-CO	US-CT	US-DC	US-DE	US-FL	US-GA	US-IA	US-ID	US-IL	US-IN	US-KS	US-KY	US-LA	US-MA	US-MD	US-MI	US-MN	US-MO	US-MS	US-MT	US-NC	US-ND	US-NE	US-NJ	US-NM	US-NV	US-NY	US-OH	US-OK	US-OR	US-PA	US-SC	US-SD	US-TN	US-TX	US-UT	US-VA	US-WA	US-WI	US-WV	US-WY
2020-07-22	13302	2227514	113790	334683	218428	1238798	91751	281413	362274	366550	72269	787890	394948	222402	3970906	2131	70413	33980	150609	421286	41680	47993	11529	13631	379199	137203	40195	16322	165259	58673	23481	24540	99345	113912	80172	79338	47839	32395	47071	2812	105276	5367	23359	176963	16867	38657	408886	78742	27298	15393	108187	75042	8077	79442	363615	28390	80393	49101	44847	5212	2288
2020-07-23	13560	2297000	114000	336100	226700	1287000	93300	282600	368100	369200	73850	792300	407100	223200	4035000	2176	72300	34780	153300	434900	42470	48020	11550	13710	388400	140800	40750	16880	165900	59720	23830	25090	102200	114000	80850	79920	48260	33060	48160	2945	107000	5496	23450	177100	17240	39990	409400	79820	27700	15690	108700	76850	8133	81080	374300	28880	81300	50250	45620	5314	2305
2020-07-24	13810	2372000	114200	338200	236400	1341000	94900	284300	374800	373000	75550	797200	420500	224000	4098000	2250	74260	35740	156400	448700	43480	48080	11600	13790	398700	145800	41300	17470	167100	61060	24270	25860	105500	114100	81570	80560	48820	34050	49550	3089	109000	5650	23610	177300	17670	41530	410100	81160	28280	16020	109600	78710	8203	83040	384300	29390	82250	51390	46520	5426	2336
2020-07-25	14160	2442000	114500	340300	246400	1399000	96600	285900	381500	376700	77260	801900	434400	224800	4152000	2329	76190	36730	159200	460800	44390	48150	11650	13880	409900	150700	41800	18080	168200	62440	24710	26650	107300	114300	82310	81170	49370	35090	51050	3205	111100	5804	23800	177500	18100	43080	410700	82450	28900	16350	110400	80580	8265	84990	393300	29910	83220	52450	47540	5538	2374
2020-07-26	14450	2506000	114700	342400	256500	1459000	98200	287500	387200	380400	79000	806500	448400	225700	4205000	2414	78030	37760	161900	474100	45290	48220	11690	13970	421700	154600	42340	18710	169200	63890	25150	27470	110800	114500	83060	81690	49930	36130	52610	3298	112900	5953	24000	177700	18520	44690	411400	83640	29520	16680	111000	82550	8319	86860	401800	30430	84180	53740	48340	5650	2409
2020-07-27	14780	2569000	115000	344600	267000	1518000	99900	289200	392700	384200	80760	811000	462200	226500	4257000	2502	80040	38820	164200	489600	46120	48290	11750	14050	433800	158500	42810	19350	170200	65300	25600	28320	114500	114600	83640	82190	50500	37140	54210	3415	114700	6125	24200	177900	18950	46180	412000	84880	30160	17030	111800	84350	8370	88960	410000	30870	85160	55010	49000	5767	2448
2020-07-28	15120	2656000	115200	346700	277900	1576000	101600	290800	399300	388000	82560	815200	476200	227400	4317000	2584	81960	39920	167600	510100	47120	48360	11800	14140	445200	163400	43240	20020	171100	66750	26060	29190	117900	114700	84380	82840	51070	38190	55880	3570	116900	6262	24400	178200	19380	47870	412700	86020	30820	17370	112600	86320	8428	90970	420400	31330	86140	56090	50020	5884	2488
2020-07-29	15480	2745000	115500	348900	289600	1639000	103400	292400	405800	391900	84390	819300	491800	228200	4377000	2673	83970	41040	170800	528400	48180	48430	11860	14230	457600	169200	43800	20710	172300	68220	26530	30100	121400	114800	85100	83590	51650	39340	57580	3742	118900	6419	24600	178400	19870	49430	413400	87370	31530	17730	113400	88310	8494	93160	432600	31820	87140	57260	50910	6003	2528

Confirmed count scenario forecast (bold purple line in graphs) 2020-07-23 to 2020-07-31

Date	UK	EU	AT	BE	BG	BS	CZ	DE	DK	ES	FR	HR	IT	NL	PL	PT	RO	SE	CH	Australia	Brazil	Canada	Chile	Colombia	India	Indonesia	Iran	Mexico	Peru	Philippines	Russia	South Africa	Turkey	US	US-AK	US-AL	US-AR	US-AZ	US-CA	US-CO	US-CT	US-DC	US-DE	US-FL	US-GA	US-IA	US-ID	US-IL	US-IN	US-KS	US-KY	US-LA	US-MA	US-MD	US-MI	US-MN	US-MO	US-MS	US-MT	US-NC	US-ND	US-NE	US-NJ	US-NM	US-NV	US-NY	US-OH	US-OK	US-OR	US-PA	US-SC	US-SD	US-TN	US-TX	US-UT	US-VA	US-WA	US-WI	US-WV	US-WY
2020-07-22	296377	1367744	19929	64627	9584	9830	14570	204276	13350	267551	204641	4530	245032	52241	41162	49150	40163	78504	33883	13302	2227514	113790	334683	218428	1238798	91751	281413	362274	366550	72269	787890	394948	222402	3970906	2131	70413	33980	150609	421286	41680	47993	11529	13631	379199	137203	40195	16322	165259	58673	23481	24540	99345	113912	80172	79338	47839	32395	47071	2812	105276	5367	23359	176963	16867	38657	408886	78742	27298	15393	108187	75042	8077	79442	363615	28390	80393	49101	44847	5212	2288
2020-07-23	297100	1372000	20010	64870	9790	9879	14570	204500	13360	268400	204600	4623	245300	52350	41250	49430	40920	78730	33950	13710	2268000	114100	338200	224300	1277000	93100	283700	369100	368900	73750	790600	407100	223200	4059000	2187	72980	34750	153800	432200	42430	48040	11530	13730	388700	142000	40960	16860	166100	59510	23930	25080	101800	114100	80880	79840	48140	32920	47700	2949	107400	5491	23460	177100	17250	39970	409600	79810	27780	15760	109000	76680	8107	81620	371900	28980	82020	50210	45880	5394	2315
2020-07-24	297900	1379000	20110	65190	10040	9930	14670	204900	13380	269800	205300	4723	245600	52450	41460	49700	41640	78920	34050	14080	2309000	114400	339700	230500	1320000	94600	286300	375500	373000	74750	793200	418800	224000	4135000	2256	74530	35430	156200	442100	43270	48100	11560	13810	398100	144900	41660	17470	167000	60480	24430	25680	104100	114300	81680	80450	48580	33670	48550	3065	109400	5610	23670	177300	17590	40950	410300	80880	28260	16080	109900	78600	8135	83370	382700	29480	83360	51160	46830	5518	2354
2020-07-25	298600	1386000	20200	65400	10240	9941	14820	205200	13410	271200	206200	4795	245800	52580	41630	50010	42620	79100	34140	14450	2352000	114600	341200	235200	1358000	96100	288900	382300	375800	76050	794800	429200	224800	4200000	2324	76030	36170	158400	452500	44100	48170	11580	13860	406300	148400	42200	18030	167900	61600	24930	26270	106800	114500	82360	81110	49000	34580	49510	3175	111500	5739	23850	177500	17900	41830	410900	81960	28860	16400	110800	80650	8158	85410	392000	29990	85250	52110	47850	5636	2399
2020-07-26	299200	1390000	20280	65640	10400	9956	14950	205700	13430	272500	206900	4878	246000	52700	41730	50120	43350	79300	34220	14700	2381000	114900	342500	240900	1394000	97400	291500	388800	379000	77110	796100	438700	225600	4275000	2384	77610	36790	160700	459700	44490	48230	11580	13910	414000	151500	42700	18570	168600	62510	25350	26630	108500	114700	82940	81650	49290	34910	50310	3252	113600	5834	24020	177700	18190	42790	411600	82930	29590	16680	111600	81850	8169	87160	398600	30480	86060	52750	48730	5727	2448
2020-07-27	299900	1396000	20340	65940	10550	9956	15050	206000	13450	273800	207500	4959	246100	52780	41860	50350	44080	79460	34310	15020	2407000	115300	343600	244900	1430000	98600	294100	394700	382200	77960	796100	449000	226300	4337000	2429	79090	37390	162700	467100	44900	48290	11580	13920	421800	154300	42860	19080	169100	63170	25880	27000	110100	114900	83350	82240	49550	35360	50990	3339	116000	5982	24170	177800	18430	43470	412200	83870	30150	16910	112500	83210	8172	88500	407800	30970	86920	53430	49340	5808	2496
2020-07-28	300600	1400000	20400	66040	10700	9956	15180	206500	13470	274600	208200	5038	246200	52830	41910	50610	44740	79620	34360	15310	2434000	115600	344600	249100	1468000	99900	296800	400600	384200	78720	796100	458400	227100	4395000	2485	80430	37910	164500	475400	45130	48350	11590	13940	429500	156400	43140	19610	169400	63220	26370	27610	112000	115000	83800	82750	49710	36030	51900	3442	117900	6098	24200	177900	18710	44070	412900	84860	30760	17180	113400	84480	8173	90120	417400	31430	87450	54180	50210	5889	2540
2020-07-29	301200	1405000	20460	66190	10870	9956	15310	206800	13470	275800	208700	5097	246300	52870	41970	50840	45340	79770	34390	15580	2463000	115800	345600	254200	1497000	100900	299700	406100	386500	79640	796100	467800	227800	4456000	2531	81750	38450	166300	482300	45320	48400	11600	13970	436400	159700	43630	20070	169400	63730	26840	28070	113400	115100	83990	83310	49830	36590	52710	3510	119500	6213	24300	178200	18970	44940	413500	85680	31340	17420	114300	85720	8173	91520	424200	31850	88420	55030	50900	5977	2579
2020-07-30	301800	1410000	20530	66380	11020	9956	15450	207100	13480	276600	208800	5164	246400	52890	42060	51060	46020	79920	34400	15780	2493000	116200	346500	258000	1534000	101900	302400	411300	388500	80740	796100	475400	228700	4503000	2577	82950	39040	168000	490200	45520	48440	11600	13980	443300	162200	44020	20510	169400	64310	27190	28520	115100	115100	84260	83850	49930	37110	53140	3590	121200	6315	24390	178300	19220	45640	414000	86370	31920	17620	115100	86970	8173	92710	429600	32230	89090	55780	51530	6088	2624
2020-07-31	302600	1414000	20590	66450	11190	9956	15580	207300	13480	277700	209100	5209	246400	52900	42060	51320	46500	80030	34400	15940	2514000	116300	347500	260300	1565000	102900	305000	415200	390200	81440	796100	483100	229500	4545000	2619	84050	39550	169600	496400	45720	48490	11600	13980	449000	164600	44270	20920	169400	64690	27510	28930	116600	115100	84360	84340	50070	37380	53610	3685	122600	6412	24470	178400	19420	46230	414600	87000	32430	17760	116000	88090	8173	93860	435200	32550	89780	56380	52310	6147	2664

Further information

We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
The forecasts are constructed as follows:
1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.
[2020-06-24] Research presentation on short-term COVID-19 forecasting on 26 June (14:00 UK time) at the Quarterly Forecasting Forum of the IIF UK Chapter.
[2020-06-06] Removed Brazil from yesterday's forecasts (only; last observation 2020-06-05).
[2020-06-04] Data issues with confirmed cases for France.
Added an appendix to the short term paper with further forecast comparisons for European and Latin American countries.
Both Sweden and Iran have lost their peak in confirmed cases. For Sweden the previous peak was on 24 April (daily peak of 656 cases), for Iran it was on 31 March (peak of 3116). For Iran this looks like a second wave, with increasing daily counts for the last four weeks. For Sweden this is a sudden jump in confirmed cases in the last two days, compared to a fairly steady weekly pattern over the previous six weeks.
[2020-05-20] Problem with UK confirmed cases: negative daily count. This makes the forecasts temporarily unreliable.
Updated the second paper.
[2020-05-18] Minor fixes to the improved version of scenario forecasting, backported to 2020-05-13.
[2020-05-13] We now omit countries with fewer than 200 confirmed cases in the last week (25 for deaths).
The short-term paper has some small updates, including further comparisons with other models.
Data for Ecuador are not reliable enough for forecasting.
Switched to an improved version of scenario forecasting.
[2020-05-06] The New York Times is in the process of redefining its US state data. Unfortunately, at the moment only the last observation has changed (e.g New York deaths jumped from 19645 on 2020-05-05 to 25956 a day later). This means the data is currently useless; however it does bring it close to the Johns Hopkins/CSSE count (25626 on 2020-05-06). The aggregate US count is based on JH/CSSE so unaffected. We now use Johns Hopkins/CSSE US state data, including all states with sufficient counts. So the new forecasts cannot be compared to those previously.
A minor change is that we show the graph without scenario forecast if no peak has been detected yet.
[2020-04-29] See our blog entry at the International Institute of Forecasters.
US history of death counts revised in Johns Hopkins/CSSE data.
UK death counts have been revised to include the deaths in care homes. In the Johns Hopkins/CSSE data set, which we use, the entire history has been revised. So forecasts made up to 2020-04-29 cannot be compared to later outcomes. In the ECDC data set only the last observation has changed, causing a jump in the series.
[2020-04-27] Our short-term COVID-19 forecasting paper is now available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06.
A small adjustment has been made to the scenario forecast methodology, and will be documented shortly.
[2020-04-24] A summary of our work on short-term COVID-19 forecasting appeared as a voxeu.
[2020-04-17] Bird and Nielsen look into nowcasting death counts in England.
[2020-04-16] Added scenario forecasts to all graphs now. This would now be the preferred forecast for most.
This is the first time with a peak in confirmed UK cases (also for deaths, but this is uncertain because it is at the same date).
[2020-04-10] Updated documentation with better description of short-term estimates and peak determination.
[2020-04-09] Added table with estimated peak dates (if happened) and dates to and since the peak. Note that this can be a local peak, and subsequent re-acceleration (or data revisions) can result in a new peak later.
[2020-04-08] Minor correction to peak estimates. Added table with scenario forecasts.
[2020-04-06] Added a post hoc estimate of the peak number of cases. This needs at least three confirmed observations (four for deaths) after the event. It is based on the averaged smooth trend, and can change later or be a local peak. It is marked with a vertical line with the date label, or a date with left arrow in the bottom left corner of the graph. This is backported to 2020-04-04.
[2020-04-02] Now including more US States, based on New York Times data.
[2020-03-31] Scenario forecasts, based on what happened in China earlier this year, are presented for several countries (line marked with x). Created more plausible 90% confidence bands (dotted line in same colour).
[2020-03-26] Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, only for Italy.
[2020-03-24] Our forecasts are starting to overestimate in some cases. This was always expected to happen when the increase starts to slow down. Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, but only for Italy and Spain sofar.

COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2020-07-22

Gnereal information