COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2020-07-24


Gnereal information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
    Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in Europe 2020-07-24

UKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
Peak date04-0704-0203-2604-15 --03-2804-0303-2704-0603-3004-0404-1204-21 --04-1004-1003-2403-3106-0804-10 --06-0303-3104-1603-2603-27
Peak daily increment 4725 29659 810 1470 278 283 5661 316 8058 146 19786 86 105 1116 5650 1079 426 830 1337 52 49 240 1139
Days from 100 to peak 36 38 18 38 15 22 25 28 26 22 43 40 20 27 30 25 85 28 88 18 28 19 22
Days from peak/2 to peak 24 24 13 32 14 21 14 27 17 22 24 44 23 21 20 19 82 23 82 21 34 18 17
Last total 297914 1383474 20214 65199 10123 10070 15081 205623 13438 272421 7380 206418 4135 4715 4398 25845 245590 52595 42038 49692 42394 78997 2052 2118 9092 34154
Last daily increment 768 7912 115 352 270 131 281 742 48 2255 8 942 25 81 18 19 252 191 458 313 1119 234 19 29 7 154
Last week 3848 40803 641 1493 1485 651 1226 3197 265 12166 62 5133 152 462 83 95 1374 1014 2292 1302 5703 1716 112 142 64 662
Days since peak 108 113 120 100 118 112 119 109 116 111 103 94 105 105 122 115 46 105 51 115 99 120 119

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed 2020-07-24

AustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
Peak date -- --05-0306-17 -- -- --04-01 --05-30 --05-0907-1804-14 -- -- -- -- -- -- --04-2005-0104-26 -- -- -- --05-12 -- -- -- --04-2405-0605-2204-0605-24 -- -- -- -- -- --05-0104-08 -- --03-3107-03 -- --04-09 --05-09 --07-19 -- -- -- --07-1404-21
Peak daily increment 1984 31281 2861 5879 10912 13085 4816 1012 190 197 2693 3307 1017 48 1624 673 89 4272 9432 1787 1624 148 9645 128 86
Days from 100 to peak 51 93 36 73 52 122 27 30 39 32 58 40 48 59 21 65 38 24 20 106 23 39 126 107 22
Days from peak/2 to peak 43 48 29 53 34 76 19 27 40 32 49 30 41 65 15 59 41 16 12 98 16 41 108 109 27
Last total 13950 2287475 115115 341304 233541 1337024 95418 286523 378285 375961 76444 799499 421996 224252 4112531 2249 74365 35851 156293 440185 42962 48554 11649 14018 401865 145642 41431 17265 168412 60598 24554 25928 103724 114563 81766 3755 80684 49346 35077 49585 3038 109728 5614 24044 6375 177670 17508 40885 410450 81746 29116 16104 110292 78607 8200 83941 380364 29444 82364 50682 46917 5653 2405
Last daily increment 355 0 717 2545 7168 48916 1761 2489 7573 4865 2054 5779 13944 937 73715 56 1669 879 3349 9412 667 556 78 257 12430 3989 636 528 1527 996 598 785 2083 330 930 21 623 755 1383 1532 129 2603 121 356 57 454 309 966 753 1560 1147 391 1187 2001 57 2020 7327 653 1127 841 1018 201 58
Last week 2148 212615 3240 12458 42841 259243 10536 14917 39372 26461 11140 35284 71117 5535 401118 453 10185 4441 15028 59440 3192 889 455 731 64697 18921 3147 2962 7836 4944 2861 3750 15138 1730 4560 114 3745 3965 5937 7739 567 11636 707 1678 187 1522 1727 6408 4145 7925 4059 1955 5512 10995 338 10755 53258 2842 5991 4739 5432 759 297
Days since peak 82 37 114 55 76 6 101 95 84 89 73 91 79 63 109 61 84 107 115 21 106 76 5 10 94

Confirmed count forecast Europe (bold red line in graphs) 2020-07-25 to 2020-07-31

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFRHRITNLPLPTROSECH
2020-07-24 297914 1383474 20214 65199 10123 10070 15081 205623 13438 272421 206418 4715 245590 52595 42038 49692 42394 78997 34154
2020-07-25 298500 1392000 20320 65370 10220 10200 15230 205600 13470 274400 206700 4824 245700 52720 42370 49970 43470 79000 34260
2020-07-26 299200 1400000 20420 65530 10340 10320 15360 205900 13500 276300 207200 4904 245900 52890 42680 50250 44850 79000 34350
2020-07-27 299700 1407000 20520 65690 10540 10440 15490 206500 13530 278200 207700 4941 246100 53060 42990 50520 46150 79000 34450
2020-07-28 300300 1415000 20610 65850 10820 10560 15610 206800 13550 280000 208200 4989 246200 53210 43290 50790 47940 79000 34540
2020-07-29 300800 1422000 20710 66010 11100 10680 15730 207300 13580 281800 208700 5084 246400 53360 43600 51060 49440 79000 34640
2020-07-30 301500 1430000 20810 66170 11400 10800 15850 207800 13610 283700 209200 5188 246700 53520 43900 51330 51360 79000 34730
2020-07-31 302100 1437000 20900 66330 11670 10920 15970 208400 13640 285500 209700 5278 247000 53670 44200 51600 52830 79000 34820

Confirmed count forecast (bold red line in graphs) 2020-07-25 to 2020-07-31

DateAustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
2020-07-24 13950 2287475 115115 341304 233541 1337024 95418 286523 378285 375961 76444 799499 421996 224252 4112531 2249 74365 35851 156293 440185 42962 48554 11649 14018 401865 145642 41431 17265 168412 60598 24554 25928 103724 114563 81766 80684 49346 35077 49585 3038 109728 5614 24044 177670 17508 40885 410450 81746 29116 16104 110292 78607 8200 83941 380364 29444 82364 50682 46917 5653 2405
2020-07-25 14190 2376000 115800 343800 243200 1384000 97600 288900 388300 380100 78190 805000 435700 225100 4228000 2321 76810 36970 159200 445000 43890 49030 11690 14120 420600 152000 41900 18220 170100 61970 24740 26760 105800 114700 82520 81780 49930 35560 51340 3289 114100 5750 24430 177900 18010 41860 411100 83030 30780 16420 110600 80400 8256 85820 389500 30300 84470 51440 47680 5700 2454
2020-07-26 14440 2428000 116400 346200 253500 1444000 100100 291200 399000 384200 79870 810500 447800 226000 4350000 2415 79360 38130 162100 452400 44870 49370 11730 14220 440500 155900 42460 19120 171600 63420 25060 27630 109500 115000 83260 82350 50480 36390 53160 3369 117200 5891 24790 178200 18430 42800 411800 84290 31280 16730 111200 82180 8311 87630 398600 31190 86700 52170 48490 5788 2502
2020-07-27 14690 2474000 116900 348700 264100 1500000 102500 293500 409700 388200 81560 815800 457500 226900 4474000 2494 81950 39310 165000 462700 45850 49700 11770 14320 461100 160300 42880 20010 173200 64890 25720 28500 112900 115200 84000 82900 51040 37140 55030 3466 120300 6034 25150 178400 18880 43740 412500 85550 31810 17040 112100 83940 8366 89460 407600 32090 89000 52890 49150 5885 2550
2020-07-28 14940 2552000 117500 351100 275200 1556000 105000 295700 421200 392100 83220 821100 466900 227700 4606000 2575 84650 40530 167800 473900 46880 50010 11800 14420 482900 165600 43210 20930 174700 66450 25960 29410 115900 115400 84730 83750 51590 38550 56990 3597 124100 6183 25490 178700 19350 44660 413100 86780 33180 17350 113000 85710 8421 91250 416600 33040 91430 53600 50170 5975 2597
2020-07-29 15200 2630000 118100 353600 286800 1622000 107700 298000 432900 396100 84880 826400 479600 228600 4741000 2668 87440 41790 170700 484000 47940 50320 11840 14520 505800 171100 43710 21890 176200 68050 26460 30350 119400 115700 85460 84380 52130 39840 59010 3688 127600 6335 25830 178900 19860 45590 413800 88030 34700 17650 113800 87490 8476 93050 425800 34010 93920 54310 50920 6081 2644
2020-07-30 15460 2730000 118600 356000 298800 1693000 110800 300300 445000 400100 86570 831800 492500 229400 4881000 2739 90310 43090 173600 494000 49020 50630 11880 14610 529800 177500 44360 22890 177700 69690 26940 31310 122800 116000 86190 85160 52680 41380 61110 3812 131300 6491 26180 179100 20410 46530 414400 89280 35740 17960 114700 89290 8531 94860 435000 35020 96480 55030 51900 6266 2691
2020-07-31 15720 2774000 119200 358500 311400 1768000 113700 302600 457400 404100 88270 837100 506600 230300 5024000 2813 93280 44430 176600 503100 50130 50940 11920 14710 554900 183900 44960 23940 179200 71360 27540 32310 126100 116200 86930 85770 53220 43270 63290 3982 135300 6652 26520 179400 20900 47480 415100 90540 37070 18280 115700 91110 8586 96700 444300 36050 99100 55750 52850 6430 2739

Confirmed count average forecast Europe (bold black line in graphs) 2020-07-25 to 2020-07-31

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFRHRITNLPLPTROSECH
2020-07-24 297914 1383474 20214 65199 10123 10070 15081 205623 13438 272421 206418 4715 245590 52595 42038 49692 42394 78997 34154
2020-07-25 298300 1386000 20280 65310 10270 10160 15100 205600 13450 273400 206500 4804 245600 52640 42190 49900 43330 78890 34200
2020-07-26 298900 1389000 20370 65470 10440 10290 15170 205700 13470 274600 206600 4885 245700 52750 42490 50150 44430 78890 34270
2020-07-27 299500 1392000 20450 65630 10680 10360 15250 205900 13490 275900 206900 4948 245800 52890 42800 50390 45580 79090 34350
2020-07-28 300000 1395000 20530 65810 10950 10470 15340 206100 13520 277400 207200 5018 245900 53020 43110 50640 46980 79120 34440
2020-07-29 300500 1399000 20630 66000 11210 10590 15450 206200 13540 278800 207500 5110 245900 53140 43430 50880 48350 79340 34520
2020-07-30 301000 1402000 20720 66180 11520 10730 15560 206500 13570 280300 207900 5204 246100 53260 43740 51120 49890 79530 34600
2020-07-31 301600 1406000 20820 66360 11800 10860 15670 206700 13600 281900 208200 5299 246200 53380 44060 51370 51200 79740 34680

Confirmed count average forecast (bold black line in graphs) 2020-07-25 to 2020-07-31

DateAustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
2020-07-24 13950 2287475 115115 341304 233541 1337024 95418 286523 378285 375961 76444 799499 421996 224252 4112531 2249 74365 35851 156293 440185 42962 48554 11649 14018 401865 145642 41431 17265 168412 60598 24554 25928 103724 114563 81766 80684 49346 35077 49585 3038 109728 5614 24044 177670 17508 40885 410450 81746 29116 16104 110292 78607 8200 83941 380364 29444 82364 50682 46917 5653 2405
2020-07-25 14280 2338000 115300 342700 242400 1392000 97700 288000 388300 378900 77720 803400 434300 225000 4205000 2321 76570 36800 158300 443800 43740 48610 11690 14050 415200 150200 41880 17850 169100 61830 24820 26630 105300 114600 82500 81340 49730 35760 51050 3155 112600 5742 24150 177700 17880 41820 411000 83050 30060 16390 110700 80380 8258 85600 387400 30120 83830 51320 47650 5693 2429
2020-07-26 14560 2396000 115500 344800 252100 1451000 100300 289700 398300 382800 79420 808100 447200 225800 4326000 2406 78930 37840 160900 451400 44630 48660 11750 14080 429700 154100 42420 18550 170000 63310 25240 27500 108800 114800 83290 81840 50300 36860 52660 3247 115600 5887 24320 177900 18290 42830 411600 84340 30880 16710 111400 82290 8312 87440 394400 30870 85740 52020 48470 5787 2466
2020-07-27 14880 2451000 115800 346900 262200 1510000 103000 291500 408800 386800 81140 812500 459000 226600 4448000 2489 81550 38910 163100 460100 45550 48700 11810 14150 444700 158000 42890 19280 171100 64780 25750 28390 112200 114900 83920 82330 50880 37990 54320 3351 118500 6045 24560 178100 18720 43760 412300 85620 31750 17040 112200 84020 8362 89410 402100 31610 87720 52690 49120 5891 2512
2020-07-28 15220 2534000 116000 349000 272800 1569000 105600 293300 421000 390800 82870 816800 470900 227500 4581000 2574 83860 40020 166300 469700 46560 48750 11870 14240 460400 162800 43330 20040 172200 66270 26160 29320 115200 115100 84690 82970 51450 39260 56050 3470 122000 6175 24810 178300 19160 44710 412900 86790 32860 17370 113100 85890 8424 91410 411500 32360 89750 53290 50190 5991 2558
2020-07-29 15550 2624000 116300 351200 284100 1633000 108500 295100 433200 394800 84630 821000 484900 228300 4721000 2664 86380 41160 169300 478200 47650 48800 11930 14330 476500 168400 43840 20820 173400 67790 26650 30280 118700 115200 85380 83620 52040 40560 57830 3602 125300 6338 25050 178500 19640 45700 413600 88220 34000 17700 113900 87760 8485 93380 422700 33140 91830 53920 51010 6096 2603
2020-07-30 15900 2727000 116600 353300 295800 1702000 111600 296700 446500 398800 86410 824900 499400 229100 4864000 2753 89630 42340 172600 486300 48750 48860 11980 14420 493600 174300 44460 21650 174400 69380 27120 31260 122400 115400 86120 84270 52630 41940 59670 3752 128900 6517 25300 178700 20140 46790 414200 89600 35060 18050 114700 89690 8547 95530 436000 33990 93970 54680 51920 6238 2648
2020-07-31 16200 2803000 116900 355500 308300 1773000 114500 298300 460400 402900 88230 828700 514200 230000 5014000 2843 92690 43550 176200 494200 49930 48940 12020 14510 511100 180900 45040 22500 175700 71060 27630 32290 126100 115500 86910 84920 53220 43400 61570 3931 132900 6700 25520 178900 20640 48050 414900 91220 36240 18400 115600 91730 8614 97810 447800 34870 96160 55400 52930 6367 2695

Confirmed count scenario forecast (bold purple line in graphs) 2020-07-25 to 2020-08-02

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFRHRITNLPLPTROSECHAustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
2020-07-24 297914 1383474 20214 65199 10123 10070 15081 205623 13438 272421 206418 4715 245590 52595 42038 49692 42394 78997 34154 13950 2287475 115115 341304 233541 1337024 95418 286523 378285 375961 76444 799499 421996 224252 4112531 2249 74365 35851 156293 440185 42962 48554 11649 14018 401865 145642 41431 17265 168412 60598 24554 25928 103724 114563 81766 80684 49346 35077 49585 3038 109728 5614 24044 177670 17508 40885 410450 81746 29116 16104 110292 78607 8200 83941 380364 29444 82364 50682 46917 5653 2405
2020-07-25 298500 1388000 20310 65240 10370 10170 15280 205700 13440 275400 206900 4826 245700 52690 42080 49930 43400 79120 34200 14400 2359000 115300 342800 242400 1377000 97700 292100 387000 379300 78000 802400 434300 225100 4193000 2350 76820 36630 160300 450000 43870 48550 11680 14020 412800 149700 42160 18320 168600 61870 25060 26730 107100 114800 82520 81480 50270 35790 50630 3213 112300 5789 24480 177800 17910 41800 411100 82930 30050 16460 110900 80530 8236 86190 392000 30080 84020 51760 48000 5738 2451
2020-07-26 299200 1392000 20410 65350 10600 10250 15390 206100 13460 278000 207600 4917 245900 52810 42360 50180 44110 79290 34300 14740 2398000 115700 344200 248400 1425000 99600 296200 393300 383000 79390 804100 445400 226000 4254000 2414 78600 37260 163700 457900 44640 48550 11740 14070 421600 152600 42910 18830 169300 62800 25440 27340 109300 115000 83070 82270 51080 36720 51730 3321 114400 5895 24850 178000 18210 42880 411800 84090 30770 16750 111800 82030 8270 87910 400200 30620 85420 52640 48820 5832 2508
2020-07-27 299900 1397000 20520 65410 10880 10320 15560 206500 13480 281100 208200 5001 246100 52960 42520 50420 45150 79430 34390 15070 2431000 116300 345600 256700 1467000 101300 298900 399900 386700 81100 805100 455900 226900 4314000 2489 80360 37930 166500 466300 45230 48640 11810 14140 429900 155700 43450 19340 169600 63460 25950 27990 111900 115200 83630 82960 51500 37610 52940 3412 116300 6033 25120 178200 18510 43750 412500 85330 31600 17070 112600 83870 8296 89920 408300 31090 86520 53440 49780 5942 2564
2020-07-28 300600 1399000 20630 65460 11120 10380 15740 206900 13510 282500 208700 5091 246200 52960 42690 50650 46110 79540 34490 15500 2463000 116700 346800 266100 1515000 103100 301500 406700 389100 82870 807100 467900 227800 4386000 2563 82090 38730 169000 476500 46050 48740 11880 14200 439600 159000 44220 20020 170000 64440 26450 28630 114200 115500 84060 83640 52070 38650 54080 3554 118700 6159 25510 178400 18840 44480 413100 86340 32420 17430 113600 85680 8317 91450 417200 31610 87300 54490 50670 6061 2617
2020-07-29 301300 1399000 20730 65500 11310 10440 15790 207400 13510 285400 209300 5177 246300 52980 42780 50860 46860 79660 34590 15780 2480000 117300 348000 268900 1531000 104700 301900 411700 392700 84270 808600 475800 228600 4432000 2617 83690 39250 171600 482900 46560 48850 11950 14260 446700 161300 44790 20470 170300 65370 26900 29130 116300 115800 84440 84260 52920 39280 55090 3655 120400 6240 25660 178600 19030 45240 413800 87250 33060 17650 114500 87010 8339 92990 423900 32000 87810 55250 51380 6144 2676
2020-07-30 301900 1399000 20790 65730 11510 10490 15820 207800 13530 286200 209600 5252 246400 53080 42870 51030 47640 79800 34670 16090 2498000 117800 349000 275500 1574000 106300 303500 416600 395100 85680 808600 484500 229500 4493000 2680 85070 39790 174000 490300 46870 48930 12020 14320 454100 163800 45040 21040 170600 65860 27320 29600 118200 116100 84780 84820 53290 39800 55990 3754 122200 6345 25850 178800 19250 45710 414500 87920 33560 17910 115400 88350 8349 94410 432100 32330 88810 55970 52170 6231 2737
2020-07-31 302500 1399000 20860 65770 11690 10530 15820 208100 13550 286200 210000 5333 246500 53180 42970 51200 48380 79870 34750 16320 2526000 118200 349700 281000 1600000 107600 304000 422800 396900 86970 808600 494700 230400 4554000 2758 86440 40390 176500 498700 47180 48990 12090 14380 462600 166800 45560 21600 170700 66200 27680 30100 120100 116300 84970 85390 53310 40510 56790 3892 124200 6447 25950 179000 19480 46760 414800 88750 33980 18220 116300 89720 8357 95880 439900 32730 89840 56910 53050 6332 2782
2020-08-01 303100 1399000 20880 65900 11860 10570 15830 208300 13570 287600 210400 5396 246500 53220 43080 51360 49110 79960 34830 16570 2546000 118700 350500 286000 1614000 108800 304300 426600 398600 87570 808600 503200 231200 4618000 2783 87740 40880 178900 504800 47890 49010 12140 14450 468900 169000 45970 22060 170700 66900 28040 30450 121800 116500 85190 85600 54060 41140 57570 3956 125700 6537 26040 179100 19710 47310 415200 89350 34520 18460 117300 90410 8372 96570 446800 33040 90380 57610 53730 6414 2829
2020-08-02 303600 1399000 20900 65980 12030 10590 15830 208600 13580 287600 210700 5456 246600 53250 43160 51610 49780 80040 34880 16820 2568000 119000 351300 294600 1651000 109800 304300 430100 400000 88270 808600 512600 232100 4684000 2838 89050 41410 181000 510100 48370 49030 12190 14520 476100 170100 46310 22530 170700 67830 28360 30770 123300 116700 85330 85900 54890 41610 58060 4084 127200 6630 26140 179300 19830 47930 415700 90120 35090 18770 117900 91700 8381 97920 452400 33380 90830 58280 54370 6500 2853

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.
[2020-06-24] Research presentation on short-term COVID-19 forecasting on 26 June (14:00 UK time) at the Quarterly Forecasting Forum of the IIF UK Chapter.
[2020-06-06] Removed Brazil from yesterday's forecasts (only; last observation 2020-06-05).
[2020-06-04] Data issues with confirmed cases for France.
Added an appendix to the short term paper with further forecast comparisons for European and Latin American countries.
Both Sweden and Iran have lost their peak in confirmed cases. For Sweden the previous peak was on 24 April (daily peak of 656 cases), for Iran it was on 31 March (peak of 3116). For Iran this looks like a second wave, with increasing daily counts for the last four weeks. For Sweden this is a sudden jump in confirmed cases in the last two days, compared to a fairly steady weekly pattern over the previous six weeks.
[2020-05-20] Problem with UK confirmed cases: negative daily count. This makes the forecasts temporarily unreliable.
Updated the second paper.
[2020-05-18] Minor fixes to the improved version of scenario forecasting, backported to 2020-05-13.
[2020-05-13] We now omit countries with fewer than 200 confirmed cases in the last week (25 for deaths).
The short-term paper has some small updates, including further comparisons with other models.
Data for Ecuador are not reliable enough for forecasting.
Switched to an improved version of scenario forecasting.
[2020-05-06] The New York Times is in the process of redefining its US state data. Unfortunately, at the moment only the last observation has changed (e.g New York deaths jumped from 19645 on 2020-05-05 to 25956 a day later). This means the data is currently useless; however it does bring it close to the Johns Hopkins/CSSE count (25626 on 2020-05-06). The aggregate US count is based on JH/CSSE so unaffected. We now use Johns Hopkins/CSSE US state data, including all states with sufficient counts. So the new forecasts cannot be compared to those previously.
A minor change is that we show the graph without scenario forecast if no peak has been detected yet.
[2020-04-29] See our blog entry at the International Institute of Forecasters.
US history of death counts revised in Johns Hopkins/CSSE data.
UK death counts have been revised to include the deaths in care homes. In the Johns Hopkins/CSSE data set, which we use, the entire history has been revised. So forecasts made up to 2020-04-29 cannot be compared to later outcomes. In the ECDC data set only the last observation has changed, causing a jump in the series.
[2020-04-27] Our short-term COVID-19 forecasting paper is now available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06.
A small adjustment has been made to the scenario forecast methodology, and will be documented shortly.
[2020-04-24] A summary of our work on short-term COVID-19 forecasting appeared as a voxeu.
[2020-04-17] Bird and Nielsen look into nowcasting death counts in England.
[2020-04-16] Added scenario forecasts to all graphs now. This would now be the preferred forecast for most.
This is the first time with a peak in confirmed UK cases (also for deaths, but this is uncertain because it is at the same date).
[2020-04-10] Updated documentation with better description of short-term estimates and peak determination.
[2020-04-09] Added table with estimated peak dates (if happened) and dates to and since the peak. Note that this can be a local peak, and subsequent re-acceleration (or data revisions) can result in a new peak later.
[2020-04-08] Minor correction to peak estimates. Added table with scenario forecasts.
[2020-04-06] Added a post hoc estimate of the peak number of cases. This needs at least three confirmed observations (four for deaths) after the event. It is based on the averaged smooth trend, and can change later or be a local peak. It is marked with a vertical line with the date label, or a date with left arrow in the bottom left corner of the graph. This is backported to 2020-04-04.
[2020-04-02] Now including more US States, based on New York Times data.
[2020-03-31] Scenario forecasts, based on what happened in China earlier this year, are presented for several countries (line marked with x). Created more plausible 90% confidence bands (dotted line in same colour).
[2020-03-26] Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, only for Italy.
[2020-03-24] Our forecasts are starting to overestimate in some cases. This was always expected to happen when the increase starts to slow down. Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, but only for Italy and Spain sofar.

Initial visual evaluation of forecasts of Confirmed