COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2020-07-25


Gnereal information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
    Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in Europe 2020-07-25

UKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
Peak date04-0704-0203-2604-15 --03-2804-0303-2704-0603-3004-0404-1204-21 --04-1004-1003-2403-31 --04-10 -- --03-3104-1603-2603-27
Peak daily increment 4725 29659 810 1470 278 283 5661 316 8058 146 19786 86 105 1116 5649 1079 830 52 49 240 1139
Days from 100 to peak 36 38 18 38 15 22 25 28 26 22 43 40 20 27 30 25 28 18 28 19 22
Days from peak/2 to peak 24 24 13 32 14 21 14 27 17 22 24 44 23 21 20 19 23 21 34 18 17
Last total 298681 1387922 20338 65727 10312 10223 15212 206278 13438 272421 7388 206334 4166 4792 4424 25869 245864 52732 42622 49955 43678 78997 2066 2141 9111 34302
Last daily increment 767 4448 124 528 189 153 131 655 0 0 8 -84 31 77 26 24 274 137 584 263 1284 0 14 23 19 148
Last week 3889 42631 683 2021 1579 665 1267 3543 265 12166 53 5053 159 447 91 109 1430 1007 2518 1319 6220 1716 120 162 83 711
Days since peak 109 114 121 101 119 113 120 110 117 112 104 95 106 106 123 116 106 116 100 121 120

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed 2020-07-25

AustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
Peak date -- --05-0306-17 -- -- --04-01 --05-30 --05-0907-1904-14 -- -- -- --07-07 -- --04-2005-0104-26 -- -- --07-2205-12 -- -- -- --04-2405-0605-2204-06 -- -- -- -- -- --05-0105-0104-08 -- --03-3107-03 -- --04-09 --05-09 --07-22 -- -- -- -- --04-21
Peak daily increment 1984 31281 2861 5879 10910 12991 4816 3474 1012 190 197 600 2693 3307 1017 48 1624 441 89 4272 9432 1756 1624 148 10972 86
Days from 100 to peak 51 93 36 73 52 123 27 107 30 39 32 120 58 40 48 59 21 34 38 24 20 106 23 39 129 22
Days from peak/2 to peak 43 48 29 53 34 77 19 95 27 40 32 115 49 30 41 65 15 29 41 16 12 98 16 41 110 27
Last total 14403 2394513 115470 343592 240795 1385635 97286 288839 385036 375961 78412 805332 434200 225173 4178021 2339 76314 36600 160041 446452 43771 48554 11717 13993 414049 149205 41878 17265 169829 61520 25009 26761 103724 114851 83054 3789 81192 50125 36316 50981 3259 111421 5736 24265 6415 178178 17807 41816 411200 83184 30081 16104 111115 80008 8305 85727 390286 29962 83609 51686 47870 5775 2445
Last daily increment 453 51147 355 2288 7254 48611 1868 2316 6751 0 1968 5833 12204 921 65490 90 1949 749 3748 6267 809 0 68 -25 12184 3563 447 0 1417 922 455 833 0 288 1288 34 508 779 1239 1396 221 1693 122 221 40 508 299 931 750 1438 965 0 823 1401 105 1786 9922 518 1245 1004 953 122 40
Last week 2334 296124 3302 12662 43517 267429 10765 15051 40812 22371 10956 35021 69872 5532 404761 464 10449 4575 16417 59546 3647 889 456 619 64390 20159 3094 2391 8287 4949 3013 3606 12023 1717 4923 128 3746 4014 6510 8343 726 11618 717 1802 212 2069 1791 6051 4393 8252 4815 1525 5731 10022 399 10952 55029 2736 6179 4855 5555 785 319
Days since peak 83 38 115 56 77 6 102 18 96 85 90 3 74 92 80 64 110 85 85 108 116 22 107 77 3 95

Confirmed count forecast Europe (bold red line in graphs) 2020-07-26 to 2020-08-01

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFRHRITNLPLPTROSECH
2020-07-25 298681 1387922 20338 65727 10312 10223 15212 206278 13438 272421 206334 4792 245864 52732 42622 49955 43678 78997 34302
2020-07-26 299200 1388000 20440 66250 10350 10330 15340 206300 13470 274300 206800 4891 246000 52870 43380 50230 45050 79830 34410
2020-07-27 299800 1389000 20540 66720 10560 10380 15470 206600 13500 276100 207200 4929 246200 53030 44170 50510 46420 81020 34510
2020-07-28 300500 1390000 20640 67190 10850 10460 15600 207000 13530 277800 207800 4980 246300 53180 45030 50780 47810 81320 34610
2020-07-29 301000 1392000 20740 67630 11130 10570 15720 207500 13550 279500 208300 5077 246500 53320 45920 51050 49210 82000 34700
2020-07-30 301600 1397000 20840 68070 11390 10680 15850 208000 13580 281200 208800 5173 246800 53450 46840 51310 50640 82700 34800
2020-07-31 302300 1401000 20940 68520 11690 10790 15970 208700 13610 282900 209300 5267 247000 53610 47810 51580 52090 83110 34890
2020-08-01 303000 1404000 21040 68960 11880 10920 16100 209200 13630 284700 209800 5358 247300 53730 48830 51850 53570 83110 34990

Confirmed count forecast (bold red line in graphs) 2020-07-26 to 2020-08-01

DateAustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
2020-07-25 14403 2394513 115470 343592 240795 1385635 97286 288839 385036 375961 78412 805332 434200 225173 4178021 2339 76314 36600 160041 446452 43771 48554 11717 13993 414049 149205 41878 17265 169829 61520 25009 26761 103724 114851 83054 81192 50125 36316 50981 3259 111421 5736 24265 6415 178178 17807 41816 411200 83184 30081 16104 111115 80008 8305 85727 390286 29962 83609 51686 47870 5775 2445
2020-07-26 14940 2437000 115700 346400 253100 1437000 100000 291200 402800 377400 83600 811000 448100 226100 4291000 2414 78490 37510 163000 451800 44660 48550 11780 14090 429100 157200 42460 17770 171200 63000 25720 27640 105700 115000 83880 81570 51150 37060 52420 3391 113000 5885 24370 6461 178500 18220 42810 411900 84510 31010 16420 111400 81790 8367 88300 399700 30670 85430 52960 49090 5963 2496
2020-07-27 15420 2468000 115900 349100 261800 1492000 102600 293500 414200 379000 87000 816500 457800 227000 4412000 2487 80670 38470 165900 461900 45540 48550 11840 14180 445100 162200 42890 18270 172600 64230 26410 28540 107700 115200 84670 81950 52070 38160 53910 3519 114700 6040 24480 6501 178700 18600 43800 412600 85810 31420 16720 112200 83550 8425 91000 408900 31130 87360 54200 50350 6155 2545
2020-07-28 15940 2518000 116100 351800 271800 1549000 105300 295700 427800 380700 90200 821900 466800 227800 4534000 2559 82420 39460 168800 473900 46520 48550 11900 14280 461200 168100 43230 18740 173900 65490 27110 29460 109500 115500 85450 82300 53400 39920 55460 3646 116700 6197 24590 6542 179000 19000 44780 413200 87110 32690 17020 113200 85300 8482 93700 418200 31610 89310 55400 51640 6350 2592
2020-07-29 16400 2578000 116300 354600 281800 1615000 108200 298000 441100 382400 93800 827300 479200 228700 4664000 2630 84360 40500 171700 484000 47610 48550 11950 14370 478200 174500 43740 19230 175200 66830 27830 30420 111400 115700 86210 82650 54580 41420 57070 3773 118500 6359 24690 6580 179200 19450 45750 413900 88380 34090 17320 114000 87050 8539 96600 427400 32210 91370 56640 52990 6552 2638
2020-07-30 16890 2628000 116600 357300 293600 1686000 111500 300200 455400 384200 97400 832700 492300 229600 4797000 2703 87180 41580 174600 492900 48710 48550 12010 14460 495800 181000 44360 19720 176500 68330 28570 31400 113200 116000 86980 83010 56000 43330 58730 3904 120300 6525 24790 6618 179500 19920 46740 414500 89660 34900 17620 114800 88810 8596 99500 436700 32680 93490 57890 54370 6760 2685
2020-07-31 17310 2678000 116800 360000 305300 1758000 114500 302500 470500 385900 101000 838100 506000 230400 4935000 2776 89490 42690 177500 502200 49890 48550 12060 14550 514000 188300 44980 20210 177800 69910 29340 32420 115100 116300 87760 83360 57410 45290 60440 4039 122700 6695 24890 6656 179700 20390 47740 415200 90960 36220 17920 115900 90590 8654 102500 446200 33400 95650 59160 55790 6975 2731
2020-08-01 17700 2722000 117000 362800 317000 1829000 117500 304800 481400 387700 103500 843600 519100 231300 5076000 2850 92300 43830 180400 508900 51130 48550 12120 14640 532900 194200 45400 20720 179100 71640 30120 33470 117000 116600 88540 83720 58760 46800 62200 4179 124500 6870 25000 6695 180000 20870 48750 415900 92260 37590 18230 116600 92390 8711 105600 455700 34250 97860 60440 57240 7197 2779

Confirmed count average forecast Europe (bold black line in graphs) 2020-07-26 to 2020-08-01

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFRHRITNLPLPTROSECH
2020-07-25 298681 1387922 20338 65727 10312 10223 15212 206278 13438 272421 206334 4792 245864 52732 42622 49955 43678 78997 34302
2020-07-26 299100 1391000 20400 65830 10420 10340 15250 206300 13460 273300 206600 4871 245900 52820 43290 50170 44670 79190 34340
2020-07-27 299600 1394000 20490 65940 10650 10410 15360 206400 13480 274700 207000 4933 246000 52970 44070 50420 45870 79650 34420
2020-07-28 300200 1398000 20570 66130 10920 10520 15490 206500 13510 276200 207400 5002 246000 53100 44900 50660 47350 79730 34500
2020-07-29 300700 1401000 20660 66350 11200 10640 15620 206700 13540 277700 207800 5096 246100 53240 45750 50900 48850 79930 34580
2020-07-30 301300 1405000 20760 66560 11490 10770 15750 207000 13560 279200 208200 5189 246300 53370 46620 51140 50480 80190 34670
2020-07-31 301800 1409000 20860 66780 11760 10900 15880 207200 13590 280700 208600 5282 246400 53500 47510 51380 51880 80440 34750
2020-08-01 302400 1412000 20950 67000 12000 11020 15980 207400 13620 282200 209000 5384 246500 53620 48410 51620 53500 80440 34840

Confirmed count average forecast (bold black line in graphs) 2020-07-26 to 2020-08-01

DateAustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
2020-07-25 14403 2394513 115470 343592 240795 1385635 97286 288839 385036 375961 78412 805332 434200 225173 4178021 2339 76314 36600 160041 446452 43771 48554 11717 13993 414049 149205 41878 17265 169829 61520 25009 26761 103724 114851 83054 81192 50125 36316 50981 3259 111421 5736 24265 6415 178178 17807 41816 411200 83184 30081 16104 111115 80008 8305 85727 390286 29962 83609 51686 47870 5775 2445
2020-07-26 14670 2405000 115700 345000 249800 1441000 99600 290400 394100 378600 81020 809300 446600 226000 4276000 2394 78270 37550 162100 452400 44560 48590 11770 14040 428300 152900 42410 17660 170700 62750 25520 27500 105600 114900 83470 81600 51100 36990 52450 3332 113000 5873 24410 6424 178200 18160 42810 411700 84330 30740 16350 111500 81820 8331 87800 396700 30610 85180 52860 48960 5915 2479
2020-07-27 15000 2419000 115900 347100 259600 1499000 102200 292300 404400 382100 83570 813800 458200 226800 4399000 2471 80800 38600 164500 461200 45480 48640 11830 14120 443800 156700 42880 18220 171700 64180 26290 28360 107900 115100 84110 82110 52130 38070 54090 3434 114700 6040 24600 6440 178400 18580 43850 412400 85610 31540 16670 112300 83520 8380 90600 405100 31330 87120 54090 50110 6046 2525
2020-07-28 15390 2458000 116200 349200 270000 1558000 104900 294300 416400 385700 86200 818200 469600 227600 4529000 2551 83030 39690 167500 471200 46490 48710 11900 14210 459900 161600 43320 18790 172900 65660 26920 29250 110000 115200 84900 82770 53400 39410 55790 3553 116700 6177 24840 6462 178500 19010 44920 413000 86760 32690 16990 113200 85340 8442 93400 414200 32060 89110 55180 51490 6193 2573
2020-07-29 15780 2519000 116400 351300 281000 1624000 107800 296200 428400 389200 88920 822400 482800 228500 4667000 2634 85380 40810 170300 480500 47600 48770 11970 14300 476700 166600 43840 19380 174100 67180 27660 30170 112200 115400 85600 83430 54570 40740 57550 3672 118600 6350 25080 6488 178700 19470 46020 413700 88160 33870 17310 114000 87160 8505 96200 425900 32830 91170 56310 52800 6327 2619
2020-07-30 16190 2573000 116700 353400 292600 1694000 110900 297900 441400 392800 91770 826600 496700 229300 4808000 2711 88520 41960 173400 488800 48710 48840 12030 14390 494100 172600 44430 19970 175300 68750 28380 31120 114500 115500 86330 84050 55840 42190 59360 3817 120600 6537 25320 6514 179000 19970 47180 414400 89530 34910 17640 114800 89010 8567 99300 438300 33620 93270 57550 54170 6574 2666
2020-07-31 16500 2615000 117000 355500 305000 1765000 113800 299600 455000 396500 94680 830400 511200 230200 4958000 2789 91420 43150 176900 496500 49900 48930 12080 14480 512300 179000 45010 20590 176600 70410 29240 32100 116700 115700 87130 84690 57180 43720 61240 3995 123000 6726 25540 6540 179200 20450 48460 415000 91090 36120 17970 115800 90990 8632 102700 449500 34490 95440 58820 55660 6792 2714
2020-08-01 16870 2652000 117200 357700 317600 1838000 116900 301100 468600 400200 97650 834200 525700 231100 5100000 2876 94530 44380 179800 503400 51050 49020 12140 14570 531100 185300 45520 21230 177800 72120 30010 33110 118600 115800 87970 85410 58410 45070 63180 4175 125200 6921 25770 6567 179400 20950 49750 415700 92640 37530 18310 116500 92930 8700 106100 460700 35390 97660 60060 57230 6983 2764

Confirmed count scenario forecast (bold purple line in graphs) 2020-07-26 to 2020-08-03

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFRHRITNLPLPTROSECHAustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
2020-07-25 298681 1387922 20338 65727 10312 10223 15212 206278 13438 272421 206334 4792 245864 52732 42622 49955 43678 78997 34302 14403 2394513 115470 343592 240795 1385635 97286 288839 385036 375961 78412 805332 434200 225173 4178021 2339 76314 36600 160041 446452 43771 48554 11717 13993 414049 149205 41878 17265 169829 61520 25009 26761 103724 114851 83054 81192 50125 36316 50981 3259 111421 5736 24265 6415 178178 17807 41816 411200 83184 30081 16104 111115 80008 8305 85727 390286 29962 83609 51686 47870 5775 2445
2020-07-26 299200 1394000 20440 65730 10540 10320 15370 206600 13460 274800 206900 4897 246100 52880 43230 50200 44620 81450 34380 14750 2436000 115900 345200 249200 1420000 99300 291100 393200 380000 80480 807400 443900 226100 4262000 2399 78460 37490 162400 456200 44480 48680 11780 14090 426100 153300 42690 18130 170600 62730 25560 27530 107100 115100 83470 81850 50960 37020 52040 3401 113900 5904 24590 6435 178200 18200 42840 411800 84420 30890 16620 111900 81760 8320 88500 398800 30550 85250 52760 48870 5936 2504
2020-07-27 299800 1399000 20550 66010 10730 10440 15570 207100 13480 276700 207400 4971 246400 53050 43810 50440 45430 82120 34500 15080 2466000 116300 346800 257000 1454000 100700 293200 399000 382800 82200 810500 455300 227000 4309000 2456 80000 38130 164500 463100 45120 48800 11850 14180 436800 156700 43240 18540 171500 63720 26010 27950 108900 115300 84210 82430 51600 37910 53210 3514 115400 5991 24880 6467 178300 18420 43690 412400 85650 31520 16940 112800 83300 8365 90700 406000 30980 86550 53740 49850 6060 2562
2020-07-28 300200 1404000 20650 66200 10920 10550 15810 207700 13500 278500 207800 5018 246700 53180 44100 50700 46180 82630 34640 15510 2496000 116600 348200 263500 1484000 101700 295300 403200 386200 83920 812200 463800 228000 4372000 2512 81890 38820 166600 470600 45560 48890 11920 14280 446200 159300 43820 18960 171800 64510 26310 28530 110800 115600 84910 83250 52200 38870 54340 3659 116800 6095 25220 6493 178500 18650 44690 413000 86840 32280 17190 113600 84930 8393 92500 413400 31360 87710 54800 50390 6191 2614
2020-07-29 300700 1409000 20760 66390 11110 10650 15970 208200 13510 280200 208200 5082 246800 53280 44640 50930 47080 83250 34750 15640 2526000 117100 349400 268900 1507000 102900 297300 407900 388500 84880 813300 471800 228900 4422000 2561 83280 39420 168300 476100 46060 48970 12000 14370 454700 162200 44330 19310 172200 65230 26650 28960 112400 115800 85360 83770 52870 39590 55000 3777 118300 6210 25500 6521 178700 18870 45620 413600 87910 32910 17430 114500 86330 8422 94300 420600 31670 88690 55780 51150 6282 2653
2020-07-30 301200 1411000 20860 66550 11260 10740 16130 208600 13520 282300 208800 5104 247000 53380 44690 51170 47710 83340 34850 16030 2536000 117700 350500 273600 1529000 103200 299100 408600 390200 86110 814100 479200 229900 4453000 2602 84550 39960 170000 477700 46140 49040 12060 14450 462300 165000 44430 19540 172300 65280 26810 29320 113100 116000 85770 84340 53000 39890 56010 3885 118500 6280 25760 6551 178900 18930 46260 414200 88970 33420 17500 115400 87640 8446 95500 426000 31790 88790 56510 51260 6378 2680
2020-07-31 301600 1412000 20970 66700 11460 10800 16250 209100 13530 284000 209400 5167 247100 53390 44750 51390 48390 83350 34940 16320 2550000 118200 351700 279600 1553000 103700 301000 411100 391500 87640 815100 486500 230900 4490000 2649 85890 40470 171400 482700 46330 49110 12120 14560 471200 167600 44570 19840 172500 65450 27050 29810 114000 116300 86310 84630 53050 40540 56090 3997 119800 6363 26010 6572 178900 19100 47050 414700 89870 34040 17750 116300 89160 8470 97500 431800 32070 89020 57250 52030 6484 2703
2020-08-01 302000 1412000 21070 66820 11560 10870 16350 209600 13540 285800 210100 5188 247200 53420 44810 51630 48890 83400 35040 16430 2555000 118400 352900 285000 1573000 103800 302600 411600 392400 88640 815500 492200 231900 4505000 2684 86870 40780 172900 484800 46390 49180 12180 14650 479100 169400 44730 20110 172700 65510 27140 30040 114900 116500 86590 84950 53290 40810 56090 4093 120300 6398 26220 6590 179100 19140 47530 415300 90530 34460 17830 117200 90190 8479 98900 435800 32120 89100 57790 52410 6562 2740
2020-08-02 302400 1416000 21150 66960 11740 10890 16420 210100 13560 287200 210600 5239 247400 53450 44840 51840 49810 83490 35130 16700 2573000 118700 353500 287500 1599000 104700 304300 414600 393200 89500 815700 499400 232900 4539000 2727 88120 41240 174000 489300 46480 49240 12240 14720 486000 171500 44980 20320 172700 65700 27440 30310 116200 116700 86740 85120 53600 41400 56690 4185 121300 6480 26390 6607 179200 19300 48200 415800 91030 34990 18020 117900 91400 8488 100200 439700 32320 89540 58580 52830 6635 2809
2020-08-03 302900 1417000 21230 67090 11850 10930 16460 210600 13570 288700 211100 5268 247500 53450 44880 52060 50190 83500 35200 16970 2578000 119100 354300 291600 1618000 105000 305700 416100 393500 90710 815700 506000 233600 4572000 2759 89260 41610 175100 491700 46530 49300 12290 14760 494400 173700 45120 20570 172800 65830 27630 30310 117200 116900 86930 85250 53600 41780 56800 4284 122200 6555 26560 6621 179400 19370 48720 416200 91750 35380 18140 118300 92740 8488 101700 444000 32480 89780 59640 52910 6706 2825

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.
[2020-06-24] Research presentation on short-term COVID-19 forecasting on 26 June (14:00 UK time) at the Quarterly Forecasting Forum of the IIF UK Chapter.
[2020-06-06] Removed Brazil from yesterday's forecasts (only; last observation 2020-06-05).
[2020-06-04] Data issues with confirmed cases for France.
Added an appendix to the short term paper with further forecast comparisons for European and Latin American countries.
Both Sweden and Iran have lost their peak in confirmed cases. For Sweden the previous peak was on 24 April (daily peak of 656 cases), for Iran it was on 31 March (peak of 3116). For Iran this looks like a second wave, with increasing daily counts for the last four weeks. For Sweden this is a sudden jump in confirmed cases in the last two days, compared to a fairly steady weekly pattern over the previous six weeks.
[2020-05-20] Problem with UK confirmed cases: negative daily count. This makes the forecasts temporarily unreliable.
Updated the second paper.
[2020-05-18] Minor fixes to the improved version of scenario forecasting, backported to 2020-05-13.
[2020-05-13] We now omit countries with fewer than 200 confirmed cases in the last week (25 for deaths).
The short-term paper has some small updates, including further comparisons with other models.
Data for Ecuador are not reliable enough for forecasting.
Switched to an improved version of scenario forecasting.
[2020-05-06] The New York Times is in the process of redefining its US state data. Unfortunately, at the moment only the last observation has changed (e.g New York deaths jumped from 19645 on 2020-05-05 to 25956 a day later). This means the data is currently useless; however it does bring it close to the Johns Hopkins/CSSE count (25626 on 2020-05-06). The aggregate US count is based on JH/CSSE so unaffected. We now use Johns Hopkins/CSSE US state data, including all states with sufficient counts. So the new forecasts cannot be compared to those previously.
A minor change is that we show the graph without scenario forecast if no peak has been detected yet.
[2020-04-29] See our blog entry at the International Institute of Forecasters.
US history of death counts revised in Johns Hopkins/CSSE data.
UK death counts have been revised to include the deaths in care homes. In the Johns Hopkins/CSSE data set, which we use, the entire history has been revised. So forecasts made up to 2020-04-29 cannot be compared to later outcomes. In the ECDC data set only the last observation has changed, causing a jump in the series.
[2020-04-27] Our short-term COVID-19 forecasting paper is now available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06.
A small adjustment has been made to the scenario forecast methodology, and will be documented shortly.
[2020-04-24] A summary of our work on short-term COVID-19 forecasting appeared as a voxeu.
[2020-04-17] Bird and Nielsen look into nowcasting death counts in England.
[2020-04-16] Added scenario forecasts to all graphs now. This would now be the preferred forecast for most.
This is the first time with a peak in confirmed UK cases (also for deaths, but this is uncertain because it is at the same date).
[2020-04-10] Updated documentation with better description of short-term estimates and peak determination.
[2020-04-09] Added table with estimated peak dates (if happened) and dates to and since the peak. Note that this can be a local peak, and subsequent re-acceleration (or data revisions) can result in a new peak later.
[2020-04-08] Minor correction to peak estimates. Added table with scenario forecasts.
[2020-04-06] Added a post hoc estimate of the peak number of cases. This needs at least three confirmed observations (four for deaths) after the event. It is based on the averaged smooth trend, and can change later or be a local peak. It is marked with a vertical line with the date label, or a date with left arrow in the bottom left corner of the graph. This is backported to 2020-04-04.
[2020-04-02] Now including more US States, based on New York Times data.
[2020-03-31] Scenario forecasts, based on what happened in China earlier this year, are presented for several countries (line marked with x). Created more plausible 90% confidence bands (dotted line in same colour).
[2020-03-26] Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, only for Italy.
[2020-03-24] Our forecasts are starting to overestimate in some cases. This was always expected to happen when the increase starts to slow down. Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, but only for Italy and Spain sofar.

Initial visual evaluation of forecasts of Confirmed