COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2020-07-27


Gnereal information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
    Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in Europe 2020-07-27

UKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
Peak date04-0704-0203-2604-1507-2403-2804-0303-2704-0603-3004-0404-1204-2107-2304-1004-1003-2403-31 --04-10 --06-0303-3104-1603-2603-27
Peak daily increment 4725 29654 810 1470 273 278 283 5661 316 8057 146 19786 86 85 105 1116 5648 1079 830 1337 52 49 240 1139
Days from 100 to peak 36 38 18 38 126 15 22 25 28 26 22 43 40 126 20 27 30 25 28 88 18 28 19 22
Days from peak/2 to peak 24 24 13 32 125 14 21 14 27 17 22 24 44 130 23 21 20 19 23 82 21 34 18 17
Last total 300111 1397771 20558 66428 10621 10374 15516 207112 13547 272421 7398 208665 4227 4881 4448 25892 246286 53151 43402 50299 45902 79395 2087 2181 9132 34477
Last daily increment 685 6478 86 402 194 60 192 445 109 0 5 2331 34 24 13 11 168 419 337 135 1104 398 5 2 15 65
Last week 4294 36821 731 2170 1367 678 1192 3395 245 6227 47 4969 179 459 101 90 1534 1078 2620 1401 6769 1229 110 160 79 735
Days since peak 111 116 123 103 3 121 115 122 112 119 114 106 97 4 108 108 125 118 108 54 118 102 123 122

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed 2020-07-27

AustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
Peak date --07-2405-0306-06 -- --07-0904-01 -- -- --05-0907-1604-14 -- -- -- --07-0607-2204-2404-2005-0104-2607-24 --07-2407-2205-1207-24 -- -- --04-2405-0605-2204-06 -- -- -- --07-24 --05-0105-0104-08 -- --03-3107-03 -- --04-0907-1605-09 --07-2207-17 --07-24 -- --04-21
Peak daily increment 46549 1984 7347 1970 2861 10906 12684 4816 3446 9540 729 1012 190 197 11143 538 561 2693 877 3307 1017 48 1624 2021 441 89 4272 9432 1709 1624 1825 148 10153 491 900 86
Days from 100 to peak 133 51 83 116 36 52 120 27 106 136 40 30 39 32 132 123 120 58 126 40 48 59 21 128 34 38 24 20 106 23 117 39 129 118 138 22
Days from peak/2 to peak 102 43 64 104 29 34 75 19 94 116 35 27 40 32 116 118 116 49 121 30 41 65 15 118 29 42 16 12 99 16 108 41 111 115 133 27
Last total 15303 2442375 116471 347923 257101 1480073 100303 293606 395489 389717 82040 816680 452529 227019 4290259 2623 79129 37948 163827 458121 44547 48741 11780 14214 432246 153705 42694 18692 172578 62907 25804 27583 109907 115503 84876 3831 82761 51623 38540 52781 3380 114916 5986 24757 6441 179111 18349 43831 412344 85177 32528 17088 112995 82417 8444 90951 400336 30595 86072 53148 49417 5999 2520
Last daily increment 368 23284 682 2133 16306 44457 1525 2434 4973 13756 1592 5607 7096 919 56336 98 1778 725 1813 5833 229 187 0 111 8880 2328 342 514 1214 535 514 504 2343 286 1128 18 492 637 1165 627 39 1979 110 271 5 455 288 988 608 1104 1243 330 1250 1218 49 2487 6252 363 1505 683 590 110 45
Last week 2409 282721 2998 13240 46063 286995 10434 14779 39234 27630 11276 34640 70731 5519 391048 581 10054 4500 15144 48816 3506 881 353 626 62823 19520 2989 2869 8928 4991 2875 3527 13330 1874 5331 131 4130 4277 7270 7257 669 11700 779 1687 179 2543 1787 6303 4163 7962 6202 1949 5535 9080 425 12567 49265 2667 6701 4752 5282 827 282
Days since peak 3 85 51 18 117 79 11 104 21 5 94 98 87 92 3 3 5 76 3 94 82 66 112 3 87 87 110 118 24 109 11 79 5 10 3 97

Confirmed count forecast Europe (bold red line in graphs) 2020-07-28 to 2020-08-03

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFRHRITNLPLPTROSECH
2020-07-27 300111 1397771 20558 66428 10621 10374 15516 207112 13547 272421 208665 4881 246286 53151 43402 50299 45902 79395 34477
2020-07-28 300700 1403000 20660 66960 10840 10400 15710 207100 13580 274100 208700 4959 246300 53320 43780 50550 47240 80290 34570
2020-07-29 301300 1407000 20770 67460 11150 10420 15890 207600 13610 275800 208800 5058 246600 53580 44160 50800 48860 80630 34670
2020-07-30 302000 1412000 20870 67950 11430 10450 16080 208200 13640 277500 209400 5153 246800 53840 44530 51050 50630 80890 34770
2020-07-31 302600 1417000 20970 68430 11690 10480 16260 208800 13670 279200 209900 5238 247100 54110 44900 51300 52160 81290 34860
2020-08-01 303300 1422000 21070 68910 11880 10510 16440 209300 13700 280800 210500 5324 247300 54380 45270 51550 53920 81290 34960
2020-08-02 304100 1427000 21170 69380 11980 10540 16630 209600 13730 282500 211000 5391 247500 54600 45630 51810 55530 81290 35050
2020-08-03 304600 1432000 21270 69860 12160 10570 16810 210000 13760 284200 211600 5423 247700 54860 46010 52060 57120 81400 35150

Confirmed count forecast (bold red line in graphs) 2020-07-28 to 2020-08-03

DateAustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
2020-07-27 15303 2442375 116471 347923 257101 1480073 100303 293606 395489 389717 82040 816680 452529 227019 4290259 2623 79129 37948 163827 458121 44547 48741 11780 14214 432246 153705 42694 18692 172578 62907 25804 27583 109907 115503 84876 82761 51623 38540 52781 3380 114916 5986 24757 179111 18349 43831 412344 85177 32528 17088 112995 82417 8444 90951 400336 30595 86072 53148 49417 5999 2520
2020-07-28 15620 2457000 117100 349300 267300 1536000 101900 295900 401400 397100 83820 822300 460200 227900 4353000 2670 82800 38640 166500 470900 44550 48840 11840 14310 442900 156000 43200 19200 173800 63640 26030 28100 112000 115600 84880 83140 52760 39050 53270 3417 116800 6090 24990 179400 18620 45520 413000 86440 33660 17620 113500 84090 8501 94400 412600 31140 88200 53950 50420 6056 2560
2020-07-29 15950 2512000 117600 350200 278100 1603000 103500 298200 407600 403500 85570 827700 470400 228800 4419000 2766 85500 39330 169200 481500 44980 48930 11900 14400 453700 159200 43720 19720 175000 64440 26570 28620 114000 115900 84880 83870 53860 40520 53820 3524 118700 6191 25200 179700 18890 46840 413700 87700 34800 18170 114400 85770 8558 97000 424100 31570 90400 54740 51140 6148 2599
2020-07-30 16270 2564000 118200 351700 288900 1674000 105000 300500 415300 410400 87300 833200 480900 229700 4486000 2841 88900 40010 171800 491100 45470 49020 11950 14500 464300 163000 44350 20220 176300 65370 27030 29110 116000 116200 84880 84560 55100 42080 54360 3630 120500 6293 25420 180000 19160 48310 414300 88930 35990 18720 115200 87420 8618 100400 434600 32000 92600 55510 52090 6341 2637
2020-07-31 16590 2605000 118700 353500 300500 1747000 106600 302700 422400 417100 89010 838500 492400 230500 4554000 2913 92000 40680 174500 499400 45990 49110 12010 14590 475100 166700 44960 20730 177500 66270 27610 29600 118000 116500 85370 85150 56460 43850 54900 3761 122900 6393 25640 180200 19420 49870 415000 90160 37200 19300 116300 89090 8675 103500 442700 32580 94900 56270 52980 6506 2675
2020-08-01 16910 2655000 119300 355100 312600 1821000 108200 305000 428900 423800 90740 843900 503200 231400 4616000 2997 95200 41360 177200 505600 46520 49200 12060 14680 486000 169900 45380 21240 178800 67260 28010 30100 120000 116700 86140 85790 57750 45230 55450 3949 124600 6493 25850 180500 19690 51190 415600 91410 38450 19910 117000 90770 8734 106300 451800 33080 97300 57040 53840 6619 2712
2020-08-02 17240 2678000 119800 356500 325100 1897000 109700 307200 434000 430500 92490 849300 512900 232200 4670000 3175 97800 42050 179900 511900 46910 49290 12120 14770 497000 172200 45870 21760 180000 68170 28290 30600 122000 117100 86550 86630 59270 46480 56010 4035 126200 6594 26070 180800 19950 52570 416200 92660 39750 20530 117600 92480 8792 109400 457200 33420 99800 57820 54700 6731 2750
2020-08-03 17570 2698000 120400 358700 338200 1969000 111300 309500 438800 437200 94250 854700 521100 233100 4726000 3284 100500 42740 182600 518900 47190 49380 12170 14870 508200 174500 46210 22290 181300 68680 28840 31110 124100 117300 87410 87080 60420 48140 56570 4093 128000 6696 26290 181100 20220 54000 416900 93920 41090 21170 118600 94190 8851 112700 463900 33780 102300 58600 55300 6839 2788

Confirmed count average forecast Europe (bold black line in graphs) 2020-07-28 to 2020-08-03

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFRHRITNLPLPTROSECH
2020-07-27 300111 1397771 20558 66428 10621 10374 15516 207112 13547 272421 208665 4881 246286 53151 43402 50299 45902 79395 34477
2020-07-28 300600 1401000 20640 66610 10840 10470 15660 207100 13560 273400 208700 4933 246300 53240 43700 50500 47250 79340 34560
2020-07-29 301100 1404000 20750 66840 11120 10580 15850 207300 13570 274500 208800 5023 246400 53390 44070 50720 48760 79510 34640
2020-07-30 301700 1407000 20860 67080 11400 10700 16020 207600 13600 275900 209100 5113 246500 53550 44460 50940 50440 79660 34730
2020-07-31 302300 1411000 20960 67330 11680 10810 16210 207900 13620 277200 209500 5199 246700 53710 44850 51160 51990 79810 34820
2020-08-01 302900 1414000 21060 67590 11890 10930 16340 208100 13650 278400 209900 5288 246800 53850 45250 51380 53660 79810 34900
2020-08-02 303500 1417000 21150 67860 12050 11050 16470 208200 13680 279500 210400 5370 246900 54000 45640 51610 55210 79860 34990
2020-08-03 304000 1420000 21240 68130 12290 11130 16630 208300 13710 280600 210800 5438 246900 54170 46010 51830 56630 80170 35080

Confirmed count average forecast (bold black line in graphs) 2020-07-28 to 2020-08-03

DateAustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
2020-07-27 15303 2442375 116471 347923 257101 1480073 100303 293606 395489 389717 82040 816680 452529 227019 4290259 2623 79129 37948 163827 458121 44547 48741 11780 14214 432246 153705 42694 18692 172578 62907 25804 27583 109907 115503 84876 82761 51623 38540 52781 3380 114916 5986 24757 179111 18349 43831 412344 85177 32528 17088 112995 82417 8444 90951 400336 30595 86072 53148 49417 5999 2520
2020-07-28 15630 2462000 116700 348800 265200 1534000 101700 295200 401300 392100 83630 820400 461500 227800 4348000 2667 81000 38590 165800 468300 44900 48800 11840 14280 442300 156300 43090 19180 173800 63520 26130 28090 111700 115600 85320 83260 52710 39590 53860 3453 116800 6085 24960 179200 18610 45060 413000 86230 33240 17470 113500 83940 8478 93600 407700 30980 87700 53840 50430 6058 2558
2020-07-29 15960 2517000 117000 350200 274900 1599000 103500 297000 407700 394800 85370 824700 473600 228600 4408000 2741 83270 39270 167900 477700 45490 48900 11920 14380 453300 159600 43600 19720 175100 64310 26630 28680 113900 115700 85950 83880 53880 41020 55140 3568 118700 6208 25190 179400 18890 46470 413600 87610 34450 17890 114300 85640 8538 96400 418900 31430 89800 54560 51210 6162 2603
2020-07-30 16280 2573000 117300 352200 285800 1669000 105300 298900 414900 397600 87120 828900 485900 229500 4469000 2834 86140 40110 170000 486200 46050 49020 11970 14470 464400 163200 44170 20260 176400 65150 27100 29270 116100 115900 86600 84510 55170 42570 56370 3687 120600 6330 25430 179600 19190 48010 414300 88920 35510 18390 115200 87350 8602 99500 429600 31880 91900 55330 52200 6326 2649
2020-07-31 16590 2619000 117600 354600 297300 1741000 107000 300600 422000 400800 88880 833000 498900 230300 4531000 2928 88780 40890 172100 494000 46690 49140 12020 14560 475700 167000 44730 20810 177700 66010 27640 29880 118300 116100 87390 85090 56510 44230 57660 3833 123000 6454 25670 179800 19480 49560 415000 90370 36730 18890 116200 89180 8666 102600 438400 32410 94100 56060 53230 6481 2695
2020-08-01 16990 2660000 117900 356600 309100 1812000 108700 302200 428700 404300 90670 837100 511800 231200 4586000 3028 91730 41690 174300 499600 47280 49250 12080 14650 487100 170400 45210 21380 179000 66900 28060 30490 120100 116200 88310 85800 57780 45660 58960 4014 125000 6578 25920 180100 19780 51100 415600 91870 38160 19420 117000 90950 8736 105900 449000 32910 96300 56850 54250 6596 2740
2020-08-02 17340 2686000 118200 358900 321300 1886000 110300 303700 434800 407900 92490 840800 524800 232000 4638000 3146 94400 42400 176500 505400 47690 49370 12140 14750 498900 173000 45750 21970 180400 67730 28440 31120 122700 116400 89060 86420 59160 47100 60250 4130 126800 6706 26170 180300 20050 52850 416300 93190 39210 19950 117600 92850 8795 109100 456600 33380 98600 57660 55110 6712 2784
2020-08-03 17700 2705000 118500 361100 334700 1959000 111900 305200 440800 411700 94330 844300 537000 232900 4688000 3256 97410 43120 178700 513800 48050 49480 12210 14840 510900 175800 46230 22570 181600 68440 29010 31750 125100 116500 89840 86950 60370 48670 61510 4243 128700 6841 26420 180600 20330 54570 416900 94550 40240 20460 118500 94610 8848 112500 466100 33840 101000 58510 55850 6822 2833

Confirmed count scenario forecast (bold purple line in graphs) 2020-07-28 to 2020-08-05

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFRHRITNLPLPTROSECHAustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
2020-07-27 300111 1397771 20558 66428 10621 10374 15516 207112 13547 272421 208665 4881 246286 53151 43402 50299 45902 79395 34477 15303 2442375 116471 347923 257101 1480073 100303 293606 395489 389717 82040 816680 452529 227019 4290259 2623 79129 37948 163827 458121 44547 48741 11780 14214 432246 153705 42694 18692 172578 62907 25804 27583 109907 115503 84876 82761 51623 38540 52781 3380 114916 5986 24757 179111 18349 43831 412344 85177 32528 17088 112995 82417 8444 90951 400336 30595 86072 53148 49417 5999 2520
2020-07-28 300600 1399000 20670 66740 10920 10470 15690 207600 13560 274400 208700 5029 246400 53150 44230 50620 47360 79660 34600 15790 2492000 116500 349500 263800 1521000 101700 295800 404500 393600 83870 820900 464100 228000 4389000 2690 81630 38800 167100 471800 45110 48850 11880 14290 443500 157800 43750 19280 173000 64510 26370 28260 112500 115800 86370 83300 52830 39410 54280 3509 117400 6142 24890 179200 18730 45230 413000 86460 33080 17530 113500 84750 8494 93600 413900 30990 88010 54430 50940 6128 2552
2020-07-29 301000 1400000 20770 67200 11110 10560 15820 208100 13580 275500 208700 5090 246500 53200 44800 50890 48320 79910 34700 16090 2524000 116600 351000 268800 1558000 102900 298000 410400 395100 85120 825800 473000 228900 4462000 2763 82850 39360 168800 480600 45730 48920 11950 14380 451300 160100 44300 19730 173700 65460 26740 28740 114000 116000 86770 83680 53510 40110 55160 3614 119100 6254 25120 179600 18990 46220 413700 87540 33530 17780 114400 86180 8545 95200 421300 31340 89330 55300 51860 6190 2589
2020-07-30 301500 1401000 20880 67630 11290 10630 15890 208600 13590 276500 209400 5180 246600 53330 45080 51090 49410 80150 34820 16420 2561000 116800 352300 274400 1596000 104300 300200 417000 400300 86590 829800 481900 229800 4536000 2852 84570 40050 171000 489300 46210 49010 12010 14470 459600 162800 44940 20180 174000 66610 27170 29310 115900 116300 87610 84070 54350 40800 55990 3698 121000 6373 25310 180000 19280 46950 414300 88570 34100 18090 115400 87680 8597 97300 428100 31660 90940 56450 52860 6286 2623
2020-07-31 302200 1401000 20990 68120 11500 10670 15980 208900 13610 277500 210200 5256 246800 53400 45520 51270 50560 80340 34910 16830 2589000 117100 353600 280400 1634000 105500 302300 424100 405800 88380 833600 490000 230800 4615000 2937 86570 40910 173100 499300 46770 49080 12070 14560 468600 166000 45600 20700 174200 67690 27690 29850 118300 116600 88730 84330 55180 41480 56670 3773 122500 6511 25520 180400 19610 47980 414800 89350 34610 18420 116300 89040 8650 99300 436600 31940 92360 57380 53920 6407 2660
2020-08-01 302900 1401000 21090 68600 11640 10710 16230 209200 13630 278500 210800 5340 246900 53440 45660 51540 51590 80420 34970 17110 2614000 117400 354800 284600 1672000 106900 304200 430700 409900 90080 837800 497600 231700 4679000 2988 87970 41710 174900 506600 47200 49140 12130 14650 472500 170100 46100 21020 174400 68400 28090 30200 119900 116900 88730 84570 56020 41870 57220 3832 124800 6623 25710 180600 19920 48690 415300 89940 34970 18690 117100 90360 8693 101100 441100 32230 94090 58320 54740 6506 2688
2020-08-02 303400 1401000 21180 69080 11850 10740 16230 209300 13640 278700 211400 5416 247100 53450 45710 51770 52620 80500 35030 17340 2618000 117500 355700 289500 1705000 107900 306200 438100 410100 91400 840800 504500 232700 4743000 3043 89410 42390 175900 514800 47620 49190 12180 14740 479200 172800 46650 21320 174400 69480 28500 30710 122300 117200 89100 84880 56830 42240 57590 3915 126300 6750 25880 180800 20220 49410 415800 90680 35240 19060 117800 91770 8739 102900 447200 32440 95390 59210 55760 6571 2707
2020-08-03 304100 1401000 21250 69540 12030 10760 16230 209500 13650 278700 212100 5483 247200 53450 45850 51950 53340 80580 35060 17640 2645000 117800 356500 296100 1747000 109000 308200 443600 414700 92710 844500 511000 233600 4812000 3090 90650 43010 178600 521100 47980 49240 12220 14820 488400 175600 47230 21680 174400 70380 28910 31280 124400 117500 89460 85020 57670 42790 58550 3980 127900 6903 26030 181100 20490 50300 416300 91330 35700 19360 118100 92920 8762 104200 454400 32670 96540 60150 56610 6673 2739
2020-08-04 304600 1401000 21290 69890 12140 10770 16230 209600 13650 278700 212800 5551 247300 53450 45890 52170 54000 80670 35130 17910 2677000 118000 357300 300900 1780000 110100 309900 448800 419400 94020 846600 517100 234700 4869000 3099 91900 43500 180600 527600 48250 49260 12260 14880 492400 178600 47760 21880 174400 71320 29250 31700 126000 117700 89460 85250 58330 43000 58720 4050 129500 7012 26120 181400 20730 51050 416700 92020 36170 19510 118600 94000 8792 105300 459200 32860 97610 60910 57310 6749 2762
2020-08-05 305100 1401000 21310 70320 12310 10790 16230 209700 13680 278700 213600 5628 247400 53460 45890 52410 55150 80750 35190 18200 2711000 118200 357900 306600 1809000 111000 311700 455000 419400 95430 849100 523800 235800 4934000 3117 93290 44160 182700 534400 48390 49270 12310 14960 494800 180900 48410 22060 174400 72370 29620 32140 127800 117900 89460 85430 59190 43490 58860 4114 131600 7121 26180 181600 21000 51850 417400 92490 36430 19790 119300 95160 8816 106800 463200 33040 98960 61670 58180 6843 2777

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.
[2020-06-24] Research presentation on short-term COVID-19 forecasting on 26 June (14:00 UK time) at the Quarterly Forecasting Forum of the IIF UK Chapter.
[2020-06-06] Removed Brazil from yesterday's forecasts (only; last observation 2020-06-05).
[2020-06-04] Data issues with confirmed cases for France.
Added an appendix to the short term paper with further forecast comparisons for European and Latin American countries.
Both Sweden and Iran have lost their peak in confirmed cases. For Sweden the previous peak was on 24 April (daily peak of 656 cases), for Iran it was on 31 March (peak of 3116). For Iran this looks like a second wave, with increasing daily counts for the last four weeks. For Sweden this is a sudden jump in confirmed cases in the last two days, compared to a fairly steady weekly pattern over the previous six weeks.
[2020-05-20] Problem with UK confirmed cases: negative daily count. This makes the forecasts temporarily unreliable.
Updated the second paper.
[2020-05-18] Minor fixes to the improved version of scenario forecasting, backported to 2020-05-13.
[2020-05-13] We now omit countries with fewer than 200 confirmed cases in the last week (25 for deaths).
The short-term paper has some small updates, including further comparisons with other models.
Data for Ecuador are not reliable enough for forecasting.
Switched to an improved version of scenario forecasting.
[2020-05-06] The New York Times is in the process of redefining its US state data. Unfortunately, at the moment only the last observation has changed (e.g New York deaths jumped from 19645 on 2020-05-05 to 25956 a day later). This means the data is currently useless; however it does bring it close to the Johns Hopkins/CSSE count (25626 on 2020-05-06). The aggregate US count is based on JH/CSSE so unaffected. We now use Johns Hopkins/CSSE US state data, including all states with sufficient counts. So the new forecasts cannot be compared to those previously.
A minor change is that we show the graph without scenario forecast if no peak has been detected yet.
[2020-04-29] See our blog entry at the International Institute of Forecasters.
US history of death counts revised in Johns Hopkins/CSSE data.
UK death counts have been revised to include the deaths in care homes. In the Johns Hopkins/CSSE data set, which we use, the entire history has been revised. So forecasts made up to 2020-04-29 cannot be compared to later outcomes. In the ECDC data set only the last observation has changed, causing a jump in the series.
[2020-04-27] Our short-term COVID-19 forecasting paper is now available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06.
A small adjustment has been made to the scenario forecast methodology, and will be documented shortly.
[2020-04-24] A summary of our work on short-term COVID-19 forecasting appeared as a voxeu.
[2020-04-17] Bird and Nielsen look into nowcasting death counts in England.
[2020-04-16] Added scenario forecasts to all graphs now. This would now be the preferred forecast for most.
This is the first time with a peak in confirmed UK cases (also for deaths, but this is uncertain because it is at the same date).
[2020-04-10] Updated documentation with better description of short-term estimates and peak determination.
[2020-04-09] Added table with estimated peak dates (if happened) and dates to and since the peak. Note that this can be a local peak, and subsequent re-acceleration (or data revisions) can result in a new peak later.
[2020-04-08] Minor correction to peak estimates. Added table with scenario forecasts.
[2020-04-06] Added a post hoc estimate of the peak number of cases. This needs at least three confirmed observations (four for deaths) after the event. It is based on the averaged smooth trend, and can change later or be a local peak. It is marked with a vertical line with the date label, or a date with left arrow in the bottom left corner of the graph. This is backported to 2020-04-04.
[2020-04-02] Now including more US States, based on New York Times data.
[2020-03-31] Scenario forecasts, based on what happened in China earlier this year, are presented for several countries (line marked with x). Created more plausible 90% confidence bands (dotted line in same colour).
[2020-03-26] Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, only for Italy.
[2020-03-24] Our forecasts are starting to overestimate in some cases. This was always expected to happen when the increase starts to slow down. Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, but only for Italy and Spain sofar.

Initial visual evaluation of forecasts of Confirmed