COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2020-08-09


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
    Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in Europe 2020-08-09

UKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
Peak date04-0704-0203-2604-15 --03-2804-0303-2704-0603-3004-0404-12 --07-1004-1004-1003-2403-31 --04-10 --06-0303-3104-1603-2603-27
Peak daily increment 4726 29653 810 1470 278 283 5662 316 8058 146 19786 87 105 1116 5648 1079 830 1337 52 49 240 1139
Days from 100 to peak 36 65 18 38 15 22 25 28 26 22 43 113 20 27 30 25 28 89 18 28 19 22
Days from peak/2 to peak 24 24 13 32 14 21 14 27 17 22 24 117 23 21 20 19 23 82 21 34 18 17
Last total 310825 1524402 22033 74152 13396 11609 18353 217288 14442 314362 7584 222402 5623 5604 4696 26712 250566 58564 51791 52668 61768 82323 2249 2596 9638 36603
Last daily increment 1062 4904 114 751 53 62 118 385 0 0 16 -6 202 61 43 68 463 577 624 131 1145 0 2 30 39 152
Last week 5202 62610 648 3838 1237 545 1345 5177 446 17308 118 9518 886 310 152 504 2337 3094 4322 1099 7759 1311 68 242 304 987
Days since peak 124 129 136 116 134 128 135 125 132 127 119 30 121 121 138 131 121 67 131 115 136 135

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed 2020-08-09

AustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
Peak date08-04 --05-0306-0608-06 -- --04-0107-31 -- --05-0907-1204-1407-1708-0207-16 --07-0707-2004-2404-2005-0104-2607-1708-06 --07-1007-1805-12 --07-2307-31 --04-2405-0605-2204-06 --08-0607-30 --07-18 --05-0105-0104-0807-2207-2303-3107-0307-3007-2404-0907-1205-0907-2707-1207-10 -- --07-2308-0104-21
Peak daily increment 554 1985 7346 11703 2861 6729 10909 12323 4816 66484 99 1762 3581 9161 729 1012 190 197 11090 3349 535 530 2693 445 594 3307 1017 48 1624 1415 1250 1943 441 89 4272 281 1094 9432 1788 934 333 1624 1827 148 2107 9606 505 897 133 86
Days from 100 to peak 148 51 83 139 36 135 52 115 27 130 125 117 106 131 40 30 39 32 123 143 109 115 58 121 130 40 48 59 21 137 131 121 34 38 24 119 124 20 106 128 126 23 113 39 131 117 111 127 125 22
Days from peak/2 to peak 142 43 64 100 29 113 34 71 19 116 129 107 95 114 35 27 40 32 109 132 104 112 49 117 124 30 41 65 15 131 124 112 29 41 16 117 117 12 98 122 124 16 104 41 122 101 108 121 127 27
Last total 21397 3035422 121367 373056 387481 2215074 125396 326712 480278 478024 129913 885718 559859 240804 5044864 3711 97735 47587 186923 559746 50642 50083 12753 15332 532111 197384 3475 48913 24670 194012 74328 30662 34982 131146 120612 95503 4042 92022 60764 52735 67173 4952 136346 7596 28296 6829 184127 21013 56230 420860 100848 43561 21272 123312 100435 9605 116627 503328 35073 100086 62864 60554 7695 3050
Last daily increment 313 23010 219 2033 10611 62064 1893 2020 4376 14149 3028 5155 6671 1182 46935 98 1122 548 816 5358 336 0 100 73 6212 2635 152 385 178 1367 1041 199 404 2613 319 922 16 497 800 1190 527 63 1398 88 190 17 340 200 811 515 879 491 262 647 975 128 2030 5696 312 897 533 621 132 35
Last week 2667 285104 2394 11563 59631 359329 12262 14677 36465 44924 23583 31077 42997 6953 331324 370 7808 4631 7426 42895 2692 264 440 506 40858 20423 1050 3016 3000 10837 5895 2230 3474 10311 2356 4359 74 4110 4344 5548 6048 719 8716 811 1495 170 2185 1151 5031 4017 6885 4975 1906 4418 7484 585 11728 46704 2039 6980 4337 5226 717 202
Days since peak 5 98 64 3 130 9 92 28 117 23 7 24 33 20 107 111 100 105 23 3 30 22 89 17 9 107 95 79 125 3 10 22 100 100 123 18 17 131 37 10 16 122 28 92 13 28 30 17 8 110

Confirmed count forecast Europe (bold red line in graphs) 2020-08-10 to 2020-08-16

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFRGRHRIEITNLPLPTROSESKNOCH
2020-08-09 310825 1524402 22033 74152 13396 11609 18353 217288 14442 314362 222402 5623 5604 26712 250566 58564 51791 52668 61768 82323 2596 9638 36603
2020-08-10 311200 1533000 22140 74810 13680 11700 18550 217400 14510 317200 223200 5815 5661 26780 251000 59090 52430 52840 64230 82650 2596 9690 36760
2020-08-11 311900 1541000 22250 75450 13920 11800 18740 218100 14560 319500 224100 6040 5715 26840 251300 59600 53390 53010 65960 82770 2600 9742 36910
2020-08-12 312700 1549000 22360 76090 14200 11890 18940 219200 14620 320100 225000 6249 5770 26910 251700 60060 54290 53170 67750 83080 2648 9792 37050
2020-08-13 313500 1557000 22460 76710 14470 11980 19130 220000 14670 323600 225800 6487 5823 26970 252100 60580 55310 53340 69750 83420 2694 9842 37200
2020-08-14 314300 1564000 22570 77340 14670 12070 19320 220900 14720 330200 226700 6741 5876 27030 252500 61060 56400 53510 71810 83740 2726 9893 37340
2020-08-15 315000 1572000 22680 77980 14800 12170 19520 221600 14770 330200 227500 6987 5930 27090 252800 61530 57520 53670 73710 83740 2768 9943 37490
2020-08-16 315900 1580000 22780 78610 14870 12260 19720 221900 14830 330200 228400 7193 5984 27150 253200 62050 58650 53840 75510 83740 2790 9994 37640

Confirmed count forecast (bold red line in graphs) 2020-08-10 to 2020-08-16

DateAustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
2020-08-09 21397 3035422 121367 373056 387481 2215074 125396 326712 480278 478024 129913 885718 559859 240804 5044864 3711 97735 47587 186923 559746 50642 50083 12753 15332 532111 197384 3475 48913 24670 194012 74328 30662 34982 131146 120612 95503 92022 60764 52735 67173 4952 136346 7596 28296 184127 21013 56230 420860 100848 43561 21272 123312 100435 9605 116627 503328 35073 100086 62864 60554 7695 3050
2020-08-10 21840 3093000 121800 375300 398800 2281000 127700 329100 487500 490600 136900 890800 571700 241900 5076000 3799 99200 48220 188700 569900 51110 50220 12820 15430 538400 199500 3501 49320 25120 195700 75780 31280 35560 133700 120600 96300 92700 61970 53770 68260 5024 139100 7723 28550 184500 21190 57160 421500 102000 44400 21590 124600 101800 9690 118600 510700 35420 102000 63520 61250 7823 3090
2020-08-11 22270 3177000 122100 376700 407300 2357000 130400 331400 493700 503300 144100 895800 583300 243000 5114000 3886 100600 48980 190500 579000 51570 50350 12890 15520 544500 202600 3582 49580 25570 197300 77300 31550 36130 136000 120900 97100 93380 63110 54800 69350 5112 140200 7844 28810 184800 21370 58090 422100 103200 45250 21900 125400 103100 9770 120500 518100 35760 104000 64160 62020 7949 3130
2020-08-12 22680 3278000 122500 378300 417600 2436000 133300 333800 499300 516000 149000 900700 595100 244100 5151000 3972 102000 49750 192300 585000 52030 50460 12950 15610 550700 206200 3687 50180 26010 199200 78850 32000 36700 137600 121100 97900 94070 64240 55810 70440 5242 141300 7966 29060 185200 21540 59000 422700 104300 46090 22210 126100 104400 9850 122400 525500 36100 106100 64810 62820 8075 3169
2020-08-13 23100 3367000 122900 380100 427400 2523000 136000 336100 505900 528100 154200 905500 606700 245200 5188000 4058 103300 50480 194100 593900 52480 50570 13020 15690 556800 209600 3805 50860 26460 201200 80480 32330 37260 139000 121300 98700 94800 65600 56850 71540 5395 143200 8085 29310 185500 21710 59920 423300 105400 46940 22520 126800 105700 9930 124300 532800 36440 108200 65440 63690 8200 3209
2020-08-14 23520 3459000 123300 382200 437100 2614000 139400 338400 512600 540400 160000 910400 618500 246200 5233000 4144 104700 51320 195900 600000 52940 50680 13080 15780 562800 213400 3892 51330 26910 203200 82160 32810 37820 140700 121500 99500 95480 66860 57890 72640 5548 144800 8204 29560 185900 21880 60850 423900 106600 47790 22820 127600 107000 10000 126200 540300 36780 110400 66070 64610 8325 3249
2020-08-15 23950 3554000 123600 384100 447200 2711000 142500 340800 519400 545300 166500 915300 630200 247300 5269000 4232 106100 52060 197700 605900 53410 50790 13150 15860 568900 217100 3981 51760 27370 205300 83860 33090 38380 140700 121700 100300 96130 68280 58940 73760 5692 146300 8325 29820 186200 22060 61780 424500 107700 48660 23130 128200 108300 10080 128100 547800 37120 112700 66710 65700 8452 3289
2020-08-16 24380 3624000 124000 386000 458000 2809000 145800 343200 524000 566200 172000 920200 642100 248400 5313000 4321 107500 52620 199500 611000 53870 50900 13210 15950 575100 219600 4140 52150 27830 206600 85600 33310 38950 143200 122000 101100 96640 69820 60000 74880 5760 147600 8446 30080 186600 22230 62720 425100 108900 49530 23450 128800 109600 10160 130100 555300 37460 115000 67350 66390 8580 3330

Confirmed count average forecast Europe (bold black line in graphs) 2020-08-10 to 2020-08-16

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFRGRHRIEITNLPLPTROSESKNOCH
2020-08-09 310825 1524402 22033 74152 13396 11609 18353 217288 14442 314362 222402 5623 5604 26712 250566 58564 51791 52668 61768 82323 2596 9638 36603
2020-08-10 311200 1530000 22120 74700 13560 11630 18520 217400 14480 315900 223100 5729 5630 26750 250700 58870 52630 52800 63070 82590 2616 9671 36710
2020-08-11 311800 1537000 22210 75330 13800 11700 18740 217600 14540 318100 223800 5899 5665 26780 250700 59330 53760 52940 64800 82650 2641 9709 36850
2020-08-12 312400 1544000 22310 75970 14070 11820 18950 218200 14600 320000 224600 6063 5716 26820 250900 59770 54880 53080 66610 82810 2674 9747 36980
2020-08-13 313200 1551000 22410 76600 14320 11920 19150 218600 14660 322600 225300 6251 5762 26870 251100 60260 56070 53220 68510 82990 2707 9789 37110
2020-08-14 313800 1558000 22510 77240 14540 12010 19380 218900 14720 326800 226100 6443 5823 26920 251300 60710 57300 53370 70550 83130 2738 9826 37240
2020-08-15 314400 1564000 22600 77880 14740 12130 19560 219200 14780 328800 226800 6612 5888 26980 251400 61160 58590 53510 72920 83130 2770 9864 37380
2020-08-16 315100 1570000 22700 78530 14890 12220 19700 219300 14840 330700 227600 6766 5934 27040 251500 61620 59860 53650 74890 83130 2801 9901 37510

Confirmed count average forecast (bold black line in graphs) 2020-08-10 to 2020-08-16

DateAustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
2020-08-09 21397 3035422 121367 373056 387481 2215074 125396 326712 480278 478024 129913 885718 559859 240804 5044864 3711 97735 47587 186923 559746 50642 50083 12753 15332 532111 197384 3475 48913 24670 194012 74328 30662 34982 131146 120612 95503 92022 60764 52735 67173 4952 136346 7596 28296 184127 21013 56230 420860 100848 43561 21272 123312 100435 9605 116627 503328 35073 100086 62864 60554 7695 3050
2020-08-10 21700 3074000 121600 374500 397700 2284000 127800 328600 485400 487800 134600 888700 564500 241600 5065000 3779 98700 48200 187600 563600 50870 50140 12790 15410 535800 199500 3609 49220 25010 195100 75580 31090 35490 133000 120700 96200 92560 61730 53500 68000 5001 138100 7692 28520 184500 21140 57020 421400 101700 44320 21520 124200 101300 9640 118300 507100 35360 101800 63450 60870 7802 3084
2020-08-11 22140 3166000 122000 375900 408100 2365000 131000 330700 491700 500700 140300 891800 570400 242600 5109000 3860 99800 48960 189100 569700 51310 50250 12860 15500 541500 202600 3761 49580 25440 196600 77160 31400 36040 135300 120900 96900 93210 62980 54670 69050 5093 139300 7817 28790 184900 21310 57900 422000 102800 45200 21830 125000 102500 9700 120200 514800 35680 103900 64020 61560 7920 3124
2020-08-12 22530 3277000 122300 377400 418900 2450000 134300 332600 497700 514300 145500 895000 577700 243600 5152000 3940 100900 49740 190600 575000 51790 50350 12910 15590 547100 206100 3948 50090 25860 198200 78760 31810 36590 137000 121100 97600 93880 64270 55850 70150 5231 140500 7940 29060 185200 21490 58730 422600 103900 46100 22120 125700 103800 9790 122000 524300 35990 106000 64580 62350 8043 3163
2020-08-13 22880 3381000 122600 379300 430100 2543000 137400 334500 504300 528000 151000 898000 585100 244600 5195000 4019 102500 50490 192100 582000 52210 50450 12970 15680 552800 209500 4139 50650 26300 199900 80460 32150 37140 138600 121300 98300 94590 65670 56990 71240 5388 142300 8059 29330 185600 21670 59620 423200 105100 47000 22410 126500 105000 9870 124000 532000 36310 108200 65250 63250 8173 3202
2020-08-14 23260 3483000 122800 381400 441400 2643000 141200 336200 511100 541200 156700 900900 593100 245600 5247000 4104 104000 51330 194100 588500 52710 50550 13040 15770 558500 213400 4338 51120 26740 201700 82230 32580 37700 140400 121500 99200 95270 67100 58330 72310 5540 144100 8192 29610 186000 21850 60560 423800 106400 47930 22760 127300 106200 9950 126100 539900 36630 110500 65790 64160 8318 3242
2020-08-15 23710 3592000 123100 383300 453100 2744000 144700 337800 518400 552500 162500 903700 600600 246600 5286000 4206 105500 52090 196300 593900 53220 50650 13100 15860 564400 217000 4555 51580 27180 203300 84030 32910 38270 141000 121600 100100 95930 68560 59560 73440 5688 145800 8328 29880 186300 22020 61470 424400 107500 48870 23090 128100 107500 10040 128100 546600 36950 112800 66540 65190 8466 3285
2020-08-16 24110 3676000 123400 385200 465200 2845000 148300 339400 524400 571400 168700 906300 608000 247700 5322000 4320 106800 52770 197700 597800 53650 50760 13170 15950 570300 219900 4729 52030 27630 204800 85810 33230 38840 143400 121800 100900 96510 70130 60680 74570 5790 147200 8444 30160 186700 22190 62400 425000 108500 49820 23400 128800 108700 10130 130100 551300 37280 115100 67030 66010 8599 3323

Confirmed count scenario forecast (bold purple line in graphs) 2020-08-10 to 2020-08-18

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFRGRHRIEITNLPLPTROSESKNOCHAustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
2020-08-09 310825 1524402 22033 74152 13396 11609 18353 217288 14442 314362 222402 5623 5604 26712 250566 58564 51791 52668 61768 82323 2596 9638 36603 21397 3035422 121367 373056 387481 2215074 125396 326712 480278 478024 129913 885718 559859 240804 5044864 3711 97735 47587 186923 559746 50642 50083 12753 15332 532111 197384 3475 48913 24670 194012 74328 30662 34982 131146 120612 95503 92022 60764 52735 67173 4952 136346 7596 28296 184127 21013 56230 420860 100848 43561 21272 123312 100435 9605 116627 503328 35073 100086 62864 60554 7695 3050
2020-08-10 311500 1529000 22150 74850 13820 11730 18540 218100 14480 314400 223400 5700 5653 26760 250900 59030 52980 52860 63480 82560 2619 9700 36790 22020 3121000 121700 373900 398400 2279000 128100 329000 487200 487900 135000 889700 565100 242000 5090000 3801 98900 48640 188600 567600 51180 50270 12800 15450 535200 201200 3663 49310 25070 195600 75620 31080 35730 133900 121000 96300 92790 62000 53980 68460 5066 138000 7762 28630 184500 21130 57060 421600 101800 44720 21670 124200 101600 9640 119000 510200 35380 101800 64310 61240 7856 3087
2020-08-11 312200 1531000 22260 75470 14020 11810 18710 219000 14530 314400 224600 5803 5692 26830 251500 59490 54090 53020 64960 82750 2642 9750 36980 22390 3170000 122000 375500 406700 2336000 130000 331000 494300 498200 139100 893100 570100 243300 5132000 3882 100000 49460 189600 573500 51580 50330 12870 15530 539200 204800 3832 49680 25490 197200 76870 31380 36300 136800 121400 97030 93420 62850 55270 69150 5160 139400 7876 28860 184900 21270 57710 422200 102700 45330 22020 125100 102600 9720 121000 516000 35650 103400 65110 61900 7993 3119
2020-08-12 312800 1534000 22380 76140 14230 11900 18830 219800 14570 314400 225400 5925 5732 26910 252000 59920 55000 53140 66680 82910 2667 9810 37180 22870 3220000 122300 376000 415900 2395000 132300 332700 500300 508500 142900 897400 574400 244500 5169000 3971 100900 50250 190700 579000 52050 50430 12930 15620 542600 208100 4051 50060 25870 198800 78040 31740 36970 139400 121900 97730 93970 63940 56630 69910 5280 140700 8015 29110 185200 21410 58430 422900 103400 46160 22390 125700 103700 9810 123100 521300 35910 104500 65890 62600 8128 3148
2020-08-13 313500 1536000 22510 76840 14440 11980 18940 220700 14620 314400 226500 6025 5770 26970 252400 60290 55550 53290 67870 83080 2690 9860 37370 23320 3269000 122400 376800 425600 2448000 134400 333600 506500 517500 146600 901800 578900 245800 5211000 4041 101800 50980 192000 584200 52420 50490 12980 15700 546400 211400 4206 50380 26150 200300 78860 32050 37490 141000 122300 98300 94520 64630 57610 70780 5377 141800 8136 29360 185600 21520 59080 423700 104100 46620 22680 126500 104400 9890 124700 526000 36130 105700 66730 63200 8242 3177
2020-08-14 314100 1538000 22620 77470 14580 12070 19040 221900 14650 314400 227300 6091 5805 27030 253000 60630 56230 53440 69140 83180 2706 9920 37600 23600 3312000 122600 377400 431500 2497000 136500 334500 511300 525100 149800 904900 582600 247000 5241000 4102 102400 51650 192800 589700 52830 50490 13050 15790 549300 214200 4338 50710 26460 201700 79380 32320 37940 141700 122700 98740 95040 65160 58530 71370 5457 142800 8246 29590 185800 21630 59750 424300 104800 47100 22930 127200 105200 9960 126400 530900 36350 106700 67310 63850 8354 3206
2020-08-15 314700 1540000 22740 77900 14800 12170 19040 222900 14690 314400 227500 6204 5832 27100 253300 60970 57220 53550 70530 83280 2715 9970 37810 24020 3360000 122800 377400 439500 2544000 138800 335600 516100 533300 153200 908600 586100 248100 5275000 4180 103100 52430 193600 594800 53250 50490 13110 15880 551900 217400 4574 50990 26700 203100 80140 32590 38520 143200 123000 99300 95580 66140 59690 71870 5559 143900 8371 29830 186100 21740 60290 425000 105400 47590 23280 127800 105900 10000 128500 534200 36550 106800 67790 64450 8500 3234
2020-08-16 315300 1541000 22890 78450 14980 12260 19110 224000 14710 314400 227600 6276 5863 27150 253600 61270 57980 53600 71770 83350 2731 10020 38010 24370 3407000 123000 377500 446400 2587000 140300 336700 520900 540300 156300 910900 589900 248900 5304000 4238 103800 53080 194300 599500 53630 50520 13170 15970 554900 220100 4732 51230 26960 204400 80680 32900 38970 144600 123200 99380 95940 66840 60670 72430 5641 144900 8474 30030 186300 21840 60890 425700 105900 48120 23530 128600 106600 10040 130000 537700 36740 106900 68270 64990 8591 3261
2020-08-17 315700 1541000 23020 78880 15140 12360 19180 225200 14720 314400 227600 6331 5891 27180 253700 61550 58580 53630 72930 83440 2733 10060 38270 24700 3437000 123200 377600 454300 2637000 142100 337700 526300 547800 158700 912400 592600 249600 5334000 4305 104400 53710 194900 604000 53990 50520 13230 16060 557900 222900 4901 51460 27180 205200 81490 33160 39370 146300 123600 99380 96300 67630 61520 72940 5730 145700 8575 30230 186500 21930 61430 426300 106400 48640 23790 129100 107300 10110 131600 540800 36910 106900 68680 65630 8699 3287
2020-08-18 316000 1542000 23170 79210 15330 12450 19240 226300 14740 314400 227600 6440 5911 27180 253900 61910 59220 53690 73960 83520 2733 10100 38530 25080 3480000 123400 377700 461300 2676000 143800 338600 531200 555800 161300 914300 594900 250400 5358000 4368 105000 54290 195600 608400 54370 50520 13290 16140 560200 225400 5035 51660 27430 206400 83570 33400 39920 147700 123900 99380 96550 68510 62400 73360 5795 146700 8674 30420 186600 22030 61860 427000 106900 49130 23990 129700 107800 10130 133100 544500 37090 106900 69250 66060 8798 3311

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.
[2020-06-24] Research presentation on short-term COVID-19 forecasting on 26 June (14:00 UK time) at the Quarterly Forecasting Forum of the IIF UK Chapter.
[2020-06-06] Removed Brazil from yesterday's forecasts (only; last observation 2020-06-05).
[2020-06-04] Data issues with confirmed cases for France.
Added an appendix to the short term paper with further forecast comparisons for European and Latin American countries.
Both Sweden and Iran have lost their peak in confirmed cases. For Sweden the previous peak was on 24 April (daily peak of 656 cases), for Iran it was on 31 March (peak of 3116). For Iran this looks like a second wave, with increasing daily counts for the last four weeks. For Sweden this is a sudden jump in confirmed cases in the last two days, compared to a fairly steady weekly pattern over the previous six weeks.
[2020-05-20] Problem with UK confirmed cases: negative daily count. This makes the forecasts temporarily unreliable.
Updated the second paper.
[2020-05-18] Minor fixes to the improved version of scenario forecasting, backported to 2020-05-13.
[2020-05-13] We now omit countries with fewer than 200 confirmed cases in the last week (25 for deaths).
The short-term paper has some small updates, including further comparisons with other models.
Data for Ecuador are not reliable enough for forecasting.
Switched to an improved version of scenario forecasting.
[2020-05-06] The New York Times is in the process of redefining its US state data. Unfortunately, at the moment only the last observation has changed (e.g New York deaths jumped from 19645 on 2020-05-05 to 25956 a day later). This means the data is currently useless; however it does bring it close to the Johns Hopkins/CSSE count (25626 on 2020-05-06). The aggregate US count is based on JH/CSSE so unaffected. We now use Johns Hopkins/CSSE US state data, including all states with sufficient counts. So the new forecasts cannot be compared to those previously.
A minor change is that we show the graph without scenario forecast if no peak has been detected yet.
[2020-04-29] See our blog entry at the International Institute of Forecasters.
US history of death counts revised in Johns Hopkins/CSSE data.
UK death counts have been revised to include the deaths in care homes. In the Johns Hopkins/CSSE data set, which we use, the entire history has been revised. So forecasts made up to 2020-04-29 cannot be compared to later outcomes. In the ECDC data set only the last observation has changed, causing a jump in the series.
[2020-04-27] Our short-term COVID-19 forecasting paper is now available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06.
A small adjustment has been made to the scenario forecast methodology, and will be documented shortly.
[2020-04-24] A summary of our work on short-term COVID-19 forecasting appeared as a voxeu.
[2020-04-17] Bird and Nielsen look into nowcasting death counts in England.
[2020-04-16] Added scenario forecasts to all graphs now. This would now be the preferred forecast for most.
This is the first time with a peak in confirmed UK cases (also for deaths, but this is uncertain because it is at the same date).
[2020-04-10] Updated documentation with better description of short-term estimates and peak determination.
[2020-04-09] Added table with estimated peak dates (if happened) and dates to and since the peak. Note that this can be a local peak, and subsequent re-acceleration (or data revisions) can result in a new peak later.
[2020-04-08] Minor correction to peak estimates. Added table with scenario forecasts.
[2020-04-06] Added a post hoc estimate of the peak number of cases. This needs at least three confirmed observations (four for deaths) after the event. It is based on the averaged smooth trend, and can change later or be a local peak. It is marked with a vertical line with the date label, or a date with left arrow in the bottom left corner of the graph. This is backported to 2020-04-04.
[2020-04-02] Now including more US States, based on New York Times data.
[2020-03-31] Scenario forecasts, based on what happened in China earlier this year, are presented for several countries (line marked with x). Created more plausible 90% confidence bands (dotted line in same colour).
[2020-03-26] Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, only for Italy.
[2020-03-24] Our forecasts are starting to overestimate in some cases. This was always expected to happen when the increase starts to slow down. Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, but only for Italy and Spain sofar.

Initial visual evaluation of forecasts of Confirmed