COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2020-08-29


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
    Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in Europe 2020-08-29

UKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
Peak date04-0704-0203-2604-1507-2903-28 --03-2704-0403-3004-0404-1208-26 -- --04-1003-2403-3108-2504-1008-0906-1903-31 --03-2603-27
Peak daily increment 4728 29684 808 1470 239 283 5662 316 8062 146 19307 245 1117 5644 1079 748 830 1229 1075 50 240 1137
Days from 100 to peak 36 71 18 38 131 15 25 26 27 22 43 167 27 30 25 163 28 147 105 18 19 22
Days from peak/2 to peak 24 24 13 32 130 13 14 25 17 22 24 166 21 20 19 158 23 138 99 21 18 17
Last total 332752 1854726 26985 84599 16164 11827 24094 242835 16779 439286 8049 288531 9977 9861 5669 28720 266853 69632 66239 57448 85833 83958 2834 3842 10611 41722
Last daily increment 1108 7641 395 647 99 94 317 709 79 0 7 -124 177 312 158 142 1444 501 759 374 1365 0 37 114 29 376
Last week 7110 122036 1732 2663 877 -855 2171 8341 462 53232 129 22981 1313 1686 514 751 7508 3078 4477 1851 7328 787 183 486 288 1819
Days since peak 144 149 156 136 31 154 155 147 152 147 139 3 141 158 151 4 141 20 71 151 156 155

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed 2020-08-29

AustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
Peak date07-3007-2905-0306-0608-23 -- --04-0107-2908-2608-1205-0907-1604-1407-1907-2707-1607-2907-0407-2004-2404-2005-0108-1407-1707-29 -- --07-1705-12 -- -- --07-1904-2405-0605-2204-06 --07-2907-29 --07-18 --05-0105-0104-0807-2707-1903-3107-0307-2707-2904-0907-16 --07-2707-1607-1008-0708-0107-2307-2904-21
Peak daily increment 489 46690 1991 7363 16773 2860 6809 8588 4277 10917 12484 4816 67030 102 1805 757 3551 9258 729 1012 190 244 11222 3397 536 2694 2160 3312 1017 48 1627 1256 1300 1972 441 89 4272 286 1108 9436 1810 988 336 1624 1837 2189 9846 495 1438 1128 906 137 86
Days from 100 to peak 142 135 51 83 157 36 132 162 149 52 120 27 132 119 117 128 104 131 40 30 39 142 124 135 114 59 125 40 47 60 21 129 129 121 33 38 24 124 120 21 106 125 131 23 117 130 121 111 141 146 126 122 22
Days from peak/2 to peak 137 107 43 64 110 29 111 139 133 34 75 19 118 123 107 122 92 114 35 27 40 141 108 123 111 48 118 30 41 65 15 123 122 112 29 41 16 122 113 12 98 119 129 16 108 121 105 108 132 139 121 123 27
Last total 25670 3846153 129639 408009 599884 3542733 169195 371816 591712 629961 213131 982573 622551 267064 5961094 5180 115284 59477 201287 702038 57020 52391 13925 17071 618019 249140 8115 63601 31665 231287 92434 41595 47577 146056 117886 107294 4489 105646 74112 74059 82029 7251 165076 11484 33631 7243 190983 23858 68461 433402 121320 57250 26293 137576 117249 12942 145966 626751 41130 118794 73612 74800 9970 3722
Last daily increment 123 41350 297 2037 9392 78761 3308 1905 5974 7964 3587 4843 2419 1549 47153 92 1561 709 629 4653 267 0 74 267 3172 2320 309 789 292 1855 1121 545 820 0 419 630 56 0 1019 1382 735 188 2585 374 320 30 340 135 609 635 1196 1011 239 795 1298 425 1484 7397 378 1216 563 819 144 -28
Last week 755 240370 2822 10344 58745 436385 15660 12911 31548 44725 23530 28245 12778 8815 259449 440 5190 3713 3185 32758 1897 1086 335 449 18286 14507 1538 7162 1823 11154 6502 3937 4511 3363 2421 3192 154 4060 4651 6698 4135 822 9963 1608 1918 142 1808 778 2860 3665 6518 4091 1356 3897 5261 1666 8260 32716 1910 5834 2851 4338 697 144
Days since peak 30 31 118 84 6 150 31 3 17 112 44 137 41 33 44 31 56 40 127 131 120 15 43 31 43 109 41 127 115 99 145 31 31 42 120 120 143 33 41 151 57 33 31 142 44 33 44 50 22 28 37 31 130

Confirmed count forecast Europe (bold red line in graphs) 2020-08-30 to 2020-09-05

DateUKEUATBEBGCZDEDKESFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESKNOCH
2020-08-29 332752 1854726 26985 84599 16164 24094 242835 16779 439286 288531 9977 9861 5669 28720 266853 69632 66239 57448 85833 83958 3842 10611 41722
2020-08-30 333500 1855000 27270 85450 16260 24450 243200 16860 439300 291500 10160 10210 5718 28820 268200 70190 66820 57830 86950 83960 3878 10660 42110
2020-08-31 334400 1881000 27540 85600 16350 24880 244900 16950 451300 294500 10360 10570 5828 28920 269300 70680 67380 58190 87680 83960 3937 10710 42480
2020-09-01 335500 1896000 27810 85860 16530 25410 246200 17030 458300 297500 10560 10950 5926 29020 270400 71000 68070 58560 88710 83960 3966 10760 42840
2020-09-02 336400 1914000 28080 86400 16670 25980 247600 17120 464500 300500 10760 11340 6035 29110 271500 71540 68760 58910 89990 83960 4060 10800 43190
2020-09-03 337700 1932000 28340 86900 16800 26420 249000 17200 472100 303500 10960 11740 6155 29210 272600 72010 69570 59260 91390 83960 4177 10850 43540
2020-09-04 338900 1957000 28610 87420 16960 27210 250600 17280 481100 306500 11170 12150 6323 29300 273800 72470 70380 59610 92700 83960 4300 10900 43890
2020-09-05 339900 1964000 28880 88020 17040 27710 251100 17370 481100 309500 11370 12580 6485 29400 275000 72960 71130 59960 93970 83960 4448 10940 44250

Confirmed count forecast (bold red line in graphs) 2020-08-30 to 2020-09-05

DateAustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WV
2020-08-29 25670 3846153 129639 408009 599884 3542733 169195 371816 591712 629961 213131 982573 622551 267064 5961094 5180 115284 59477 201287 702038 57020 52391 13925 17071 618019 249140 8115 63601 31665 231287 92434 41595 47577 146056 117886 107294 105646 74112 74059 82029 7251 165076 11484 33631 190983 23858 68461 433402 121320 57250 26293 137576 117249 12942 145966 626751 41130 118794 73612 74800 9970
2020-08-30 25800 3885000 130000 409900 608900 3622000 171400 373900 597700 637000 217600 987000 629000 268500 5998000 5254 116500 59960 202600 708400 57320 52490 13980 17230 621600 252400 8500 64740 31980 233000 92830 42430 48630 146800 117900 107800 106400 75620 75140 82750 7561 165600 11810 33660 191300 23990 69020 434000 122000 57950 26530 138300 118300 13180 147400 632500 41380 119600 74120 75490 10070
2020-08-31 25930 3900000 130400 411600 617800 3699000 174300 376000 600900 644300 221500 992000 630900 270000 6031000 5324 117600 60280 202800 714800 57610 52580 14030 17370 625100 254200 8740 66150 32290 234600 94110 43630 49720 147500 118200 108300 107000 77130 76170 83460 7744 166800 12150 33840 191600 24120 69560 434600 122700 58610 26760 138800 119200 13500 148800 638000 41570 120400 74610 75880 10120
2020-09-01 26050 3946000 130800 412900 626600 3776000 177700 378100 605700 651500 225400 996000 632500 271400 6066000 5396 118600 60700 203400 721000 57910 52690 14090 17510 628600 256400 8990 67710 32600 236200 94940 44460 50810 148100 118600 108800 107700 78410 77210 84170 7994 168000 12500 34140 191900 24250 70100 435200 123600 59280 26990 139400 120200 13750 150200 643500 41850 121200 75110 76340 10200
2020-09-02 26180 3992000 131200 414100 635400 3852000 181300 380100 611000 658600 229300 1001000 635300 272700 6113000 5464 119600 61350 203700 727200 58190 52780 14140 17640 632100 259000 9400 69480 32910 238200 95720 45750 51950 148700 118800 109300 108400 79820 78210 84860 8282 169100 12850 34440 192200 24380 70640 435700 124600 59920 27220 139900 121100 14040 151600 649000 42150 122000 75600 77160 10330
2020-09-03 26300 4034000 131500 415800 644300 3928000 185200 382200 616800 665800 233200 1005000 638300 274100 6153000 5533 120700 61980 204400 733400 58480 52880 14190 17780 635600 261300 9760 72030 33220 239800 96740 46670 53110 149300 119100 109800 109200 81520 79220 85560 8587 171000 13220 34790 192500 24510 71170 436300 125700 60570 27450 140600 122000 14490 153000 654400 42470 122800 76080 77950 10440
2020-09-04 26430 4073000 131900 417500 653200 4006000 189500 384300 622100 673000 237100 1010000 640600 275500 6198000 5602 121700 62730 204700 739700 58760 52980 14250 17910 639000 263600 10170 74440 33530 242000 97620 47930 54310 149900 119400 110200 109800 83230 80240 86270 8898 172500 13590 35110 192800 24630 71710 436900 126900 61220 27670 141300 122900 14870 154400 659900 42790 123500 76570 78750 10590
2020-09-05 26550 4114000 132300 419400 662200 4084000 194400 386300 627800 680200 241100 1015000 643300 276900 6241000 5671 122700 63380 205400 746000 59050 53080 14300 18040 642500 266000 10540 75690 33840 243900 98650 48870 55520 150500 119600 110700 110200 84920 81260 86970 9104 174700 13980 35360 193100 24760 72250 437500 128000 61870 27900 142000 123900 15200 155800 665400 43110 124300 77060 79560 10720

Confirmed count average forecast Europe (bold black line in graphs) 2020-08-30 to 2020-09-05

DateUKEUATBEBGCZDEDKESFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESKNOCH
2020-08-29 332752 1854726 26985 84599 16164 24094 242835 16779 439286 288531 9977 9861 5669 28720 266853 69632 66239 57448 85833 83958 3842 10611 41722
2020-08-30 333300 1857000 27180 84920 16230 24360 243100 16860 441900 291300 10220 10210 5706 28790 267300 70000 66750 57570 86650 83890 3899 10650 41850
2020-08-31 334100 1870000 27430 85190 16320 24760 243800 16950 450100 294800 10430 10580 5773 28880 267800 70460 67390 57750 87570 83960 3988 10700 42040
2020-09-01 335100 1877000 27680 85530 16470 25270 244500 17040 456800 298100 10650 10960 5852 28970 268300 70840 68070 57940 88660 84070 4075 10740 42250
2020-09-02 335900 1886000 27950 85980 16600 25780 245200 17120 463700 301500 10910 11360 5947 29070 268900 71310 68770 58160 89860 84180 4171 10790 42460
2020-09-03 336900 1896000 28240 86450 16720 26170 245900 17210 470500 304500 11180 11780 6046 29170 269500 71760 69520 58370 91140 84310 4273 10830 42670
2020-09-04 337800 1907000 28550 86930 16870 26860 246600 17300 477300 309000 11430 12200 6158 29270 270000 72210 70310 58580 92400 84440 4377 10880 42870
2020-09-05 338700 1912000 28830 87450 16930 27280 246900 17390 481200 312400 11680 12640 6256 29370 270600 72670 71060 58800 93610 84570 4486 10920 43080

Confirmed count average forecast (bold black line in graphs) 2020-08-30 to 2020-09-05

DateAustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WV
2020-08-29 25670 3846153 129639 408009 599884 3542733 169195 371816 591712 629961 213131 982573 622551 267064 5961094 5180 115284 59477 201287 702038 57020 52391 13925 17071 618019 249140 8115 63601 31665 231287 92434 41595 47577 146056 117886 107294 105646 74112 74059 82029 7251 165076 11484 33631 190983 23858 68461 433402 121320 57250 26293 137576 117249 12942 145966 626751 41130 118794 73612 74800 9970
2020-08-30 25730 3862000 129900 409500 608600 3597000 172400 373400 595100 637700 216900 984900 624100 268000 5974000 5214 115400 59710 201600 704000 57280 52430 13950 17100 619700 250600 8330 64390 31880 232900 92940 42280 48410 146800 117900 107600 106200 75340 74590 82630 7350 165400 11620 33710 191200 23950 68840 433800 121500 57540 26450 137900 117500 13060 147100 629500 41320 119200 73830 75170 10020
2020-08-31 25800 3875000 130200 411200 618500 3665000 175900 374900 599100 645500 220700 987300 625800 269300 5991000 5270 115800 60030 201900 708100 57550 52520 13980 17140 622200 252500 8550 65640 32150 234500 94010 43280 49460 147400 118100 107900 106800 76700 75560 83260 7463 166400 11860 33860 191500 24050 69290 434400 122200 58160 26650 138500 117900 13270 148100 633700 41550 120000 74100 75510 10080
2020-09-01 25860 3918000 130500 412500 628600 3734000 179700 376400 603800 652900 224500 989600 627200 270600 6008000 5338 116200 60480 202400 712200 57860 52610 14020 17190 624800 254700 8780 67050 32420 236200 94870 44140 50510 148000 118300 108300 107500 77980 76560 83960 7616 167600 12170 34110 191800 24150 69760 435000 122900 58780 26860 139000 118600 13470 149200 639400 41820 120800 74440 75950 10170
2020-09-02 25930 3964000 130800 413700 638800 3810000 183500 377800 608800 660400 228400 991800 629400 271900 6035000 5407 117000 61070 202800 716800 58130 52700 14050 17230 627600 257100 9090 68540 32690 238100 95720 45220 51610 148700 118400 108600 108100 79320 77570 84680 7809 168800 12490 34370 192100 24280 70150 435500 123900 59410 27060 139500 119300 13710 150600 644900 42120 121600 74780 76740 10270
2020-09-03 26000 4007000 131100 415400 649100 3883000 187600 379100 614500 668200 232300 994000 631800 273200 6059000 5476 117600 61660 203500 721600 58450 52800 14110 17290 630400 259500 9410 70490 32970 239900 96630 46170 52720 149200 118500 109000 108800 80820 78590 85350 8004 170400 12860 34640 192400 24460 70640 436100 124900 60040 27280 140200 119900 14070 152200 650100 42410 122300 75170 77490 10390
2020-09-04 26060 4044000 131400 417200 659700 3957000 192000 380500 619900 676300 236200 996200 634400 274500 6085000 5546 118200 62350 204000 727300 58750 52900 14160 17350 633500 262000 9750 72220 33250 241900 97510 47220 53890 149800 118700 109500 109300 82330 79620 86090 8199 171900 13190 34900 192700 24590 71300 436600 125800 60680 27530 140900 120800 14350 153700 656300 42730 123100 75540 78260 10510
2020-09-05 26130 4088000 131700 418900 670500 4033000 196500 381800 625600 684300 240200 998400 637200 275800 6108000 5618 118900 62910 204600 730900 59010 53000 14200 17410 636600 264600 10120 73640 33530 243900 98450 48220 55070 150200 118800 109900 110000 83850 80660 86810 8383 173600 13570 35110 193000 24690 71830 437200 126800 61320 27790 141600 121500 14640 154900 660500 43020 124000 75950 79100 10620

Confirmed count scenario forecast (bold purple line in graphs) 2020-08-30 to 2020-09-07

DateUKEUATBEBGCZDEDKESFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESKNOCHAustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WV
2020-08-29 332752 1854726 26985 84599 16164 24094 242835 16779 439286 288531 9977 9861 5669 28720 266853 69632 66239 57448 85833 83958 3842 10611 41722 25670 3846153 129639 408009 599884 3542733 169195 371816 591712 629961 213131 982573 622551 267064 5961094 5180 115284 59477 201287 702038 57020 52391 13925 17071 618019 249140 8115 63601 31665 231287 92434 41595 47577 146056 117886 107294 105646 74112 74059 82029 7251 165076 11484 33631 190983 23858 68461 433402 121320 57250 26293 137576 117249 12942 145966 626751 41130 118794 73612 74800 9970
2020-08-30 334000 1875000 27340 85020 16260 24500 244400 16950 446900 295200 10250 10200 5713 28820 268100 70110 67210 57760 86690 84230 3913 10700 42010 25760 3873000 130000 409800 615000 3601000 172400 374200 595600 645400 216900 986000 624700 268600 5976000 5212 115300 59720 201700 707400 57280 52500 13980 17090 619900 251200 8370 64700 31870 233000 93750 42390 48630 147000 118100 107700 106700 75280 74360 82680 7342 167600 11640 33840 191400 23980 68860 434100 121700 57490 26490 138200 117200 13110 147000 630500 41310 120600 74000 75170 10110
2020-08-31 335400 1897000 27670 85490 16390 24870 246100 17040 454300 301300 10450 10530 5799 28940 269400 70530 67950 58030 87660 84290 3979 10740 42370 25850 3903000 130400 411500 626000 3648000 173900 376600 600000 651600 220200 991000 626500 270100 6005000 5265 115500 60120 202100 711900 57570 52520 14040 17120 622200 253200 8600 65630 32050 234800 94520 43060 49150 147400 118600 108100 107500 75920 75090 83300 7433 169000 11860 34070 191800 24080 69230 434700 122300 57990 26690 139000 117800 13410 148000 633500 41570 122000 74400 75750 10210
2020-09-01 336700 1915000 28040 85920 16500 25270 247500 17140 463800 304700 10650 10920 5865 29050 270800 71070 69110 58280 88670 84320 4062 10800 42680 25910 3933000 130800 413100 639000 3727000 176700 379400 604500 660900 223200 995000 628300 271700 6031000 5316 116000 60550 202500 716000 57760 52580 14090 17180 624600 255000 8840 66780 32210 236700 95590 43760 49890 147800 119100 108500 108200 76820 75890 83870 7539 170900 12130 34350 192200 24180 69600 435400 123000 58510 26860 139700 118300 13780 149000 636900 41760 122800 74820 76260 10370
2020-09-02 337900 1937000 28530 86360 16600 25520 249300 17210 470700 309100 10900 11340 5902 29170 272100 71700 69780 58520 89570 84410 4149 10860 43030 25990 3958000 131200 414600 649400 3793000 179000 381900 608500 667800 226500 998000 629700 273400 6058000 5361 116400 60910 202800 719500 57910 52590 14160 17240 626400 256700 9110 67700 32360 238700 96650 44310 50560 148100 119300 109000 109100 77610 76550 84440 7640 172300 12370 34600 192500 24260 69980 436200 123600 58930 27010 140300 118800 14010 150000 639200 41960 124200 75210 76710 10430
2020-09-03 339300 1959000 28900 86820 16680 25560 251200 17310 475000 314000 11040 11790 5919 29250 273200 72110 69840 58850 90460 84460 4213 10920 43400 26060 3982000 131600 416200 661300 3838000 180800 384700 612300 667800 229400 1002000 630900 275200 6081000 5405 116800 61250 203100 722400 58120 52610 14210 17300 628500 258100 9330 68350 32500 240300 96690 44580 51160 148500 119700 109400 109900 77700 77010 84930 7648 172300 12590 34830 192800 24350 70290 436900 124200 59360 27160 141000 119000 14270 150900 641600 42140 124200 75600 77110 10430
2020-09-04 340200 1979000 29110 87300 16780 25560 253500 17460 475100 317400 11240 12130 5931 29300 274400 72690 69840 59120 91300 84520 4286 10950 43600 26130 4004000 132000 417700 670700 3910000 183100 387500 616100 668400 232100 1007000 632100 277100 6103000 5444 117200 61540 203400 725600 58230 52630 14250 17320 630200 259600 9540 69000 32630 241900 97000 44950 51550 148800 119900 109900 110800 77880 77470 85410 7677 172700 12800 35030 193200 24410 70550 437600 124700 59670 27300 141600 119300 14500 151600 644200 42290 124200 75890 77460 10460
2020-09-05 341500 2005000 29220 87800 16850 25580 254400 17610 477000 321900 11410 12440 5937 29360 275500 73260 69910 59450 92060 84550 4359 10980 43700 26190 4032000 132300 419100 680200 3959000 184300 389400 619400 668400 234400 1011000 633400 279100 6122000 5481 117400 61850 203500 728600 58380 52660 14300 17380 631900 261100 9750 69800 32740 243600 97030 44970 51830 149200 120200 110200 111600 77950 77890 85820 7698 172800 13020 35180 193400 24470 70810 438400 125200 60000 27410 142100 119600 14780 152400 646600 42420 124500 76180 77730 10470
2020-09-06 342800 2025000 29320 88260 16940 25690 254800 17700 482300 326600 11580 12730 5961 29380 276400 73490 70340 59740 92810 84560 4417 11000 43760 26240 4045000 132600 420400 688400 4019000 185600 392500 622200 673600 236500 1014000 634600 281100 6143000 5507 117700 62090 203600 731800 58530 52700 14340 17410 633600 262400 9940 70820 32850 245100 97490 45320 52140 149500 120400 110600 112500 78170 78290 86200 7766 173000 13330 35330 193800 24530 71040 439500 125600 60300 27530 142700 119800 14890 153000 648400 42510 124600 76410 78120 10510
2020-09-07 343600 2034000 29410 88750 16990 25700 255600 17810 487200 328500 11750 13000 5964 29420 277500 74150 70350 59960 93430 84580 4478 11020 43840 26320 4053000 132900 421800 695600 4082000 186900 395500 624900 674100 238800 1018000 635700 283100 6160000 5531 117800 62250 203700 733300 58620 52720 14380 17460 634900 263300 10190 71880 32950 246500 97770 45630 52450 149800 120400 111000 113200 78460 78450 86550 7784 173000 13540 35450 194100 24580 71240 440300 125900 60560 27610 143300 120000 15040 153700 649900 42510 124600 76600 78330 10520

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.
[2020-06-24] Research presentation on short-term COVID-19 forecasting on 26 June (14:00 UK time) at the Quarterly Forecasting Forum of the IIF UK Chapter.
[2020-06-06] Removed Brazil from yesterday's forecasts (only; last observation 2020-06-05).
[2020-06-04] Data issues with confirmed cases for France.
Added an appendix to the short term paper with further forecast comparisons for European and Latin American countries.
Both Sweden and Iran have lost their peak in confirmed cases. For Sweden the previous peak was on 24 April (daily peak of 656 cases), for Iran it was on 31 March (peak of 3116). For Iran this looks like a second wave, with increasing daily counts for the last four weeks. For Sweden this is a sudden jump in confirmed cases in the last two days, compared to a fairly steady weekly pattern over the previous six weeks.
[2020-05-20] Problem with UK confirmed cases: negative daily count. This makes the forecasts temporarily unreliable.
Updated the second paper.
[2020-05-18] Minor fixes to the improved version of scenario forecasting, backported to 2020-05-13.
[2020-05-13] We now omit countries with fewer than 200 confirmed cases in the last week (25 for deaths).
The short-term paper has some small updates, including further comparisons with other models.
Data for Ecuador are not reliable enough for forecasting.
Switched to an improved version of scenario forecasting.
[2020-05-06] The New York Times is in the process of redefining its US state data. Unfortunately, at the moment only the last observation has changed (e.g New York deaths jumped from 19645 on 2020-05-05 to 25956 a day later). This means the data is currently useless; however it does bring it close to the Johns Hopkins/CSSE count (25626 on 2020-05-06). The aggregate US count is based on JH/CSSE so unaffected. We now use Johns Hopkins/CSSE US state data, including all states with sufficient counts. So the new forecasts cannot be compared to those previously.
A minor change is that we show the graph without scenario forecast if no peak has been detected yet.
[2020-04-29] See our blog entry at the International Institute of Forecasters.
US history of death counts revised in Johns Hopkins/CSSE data.
UK death counts have been revised to include the deaths in care homes. In the Johns Hopkins/CSSE data set, which we use, the entire history has been revised. So forecasts made up to 2020-04-29 cannot be compared to later outcomes. In the ECDC data set only the last observation has changed, causing a jump in the series.
[2020-04-27] Our short-term COVID-19 forecasting paper is now available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06.
A small adjustment has been made to the scenario forecast methodology, and will be documented shortly.
[2020-04-24] A summary of our work on short-term COVID-19 forecasting appeared as a voxeu.
[2020-04-17] Bird and Nielsen look into nowcasting death counts in England.
[2020-04-16] Added scenario forecasts to all graphs now. This would now be the preferred forecast for most.
This is the first time with a peak in confirmed UK cases (also for deaths, but this is uncertain because it is at the same date).
[2020-04-10] Updated documentation with better description of short-term estimates and peak determination.
[2020-04-09] Added table with estimated peak dates (if happened) and dates to and since the peak. Note that this can be a local peak, and subsequent re-acceleration (or data revisions) can result in a new peak later.
[2020-04-08] Minor correction to peak estimates. Added table with scenario forecasts.
[2020-04-06] Added a post hoc estimate of the peak number of cases. This needs at least three confirmed observations (four for deaths) after the event. It is based on the averaged smooth trend, and can change later or be a local peak. It is marked with a vertical line with the date label, or a date with left arrow in the bottom left corner of the graph. This is backported to 2020-04-04.
[2020-04-02] Now including more US States, based on New York Times data.
[2020-03-31] Scenario forecasts, based on what happened in China earlier this year, are presented for several countries (line marked with x). Created more plausible 90% confidence bands (dotted line in same colour).
[2020-03-26] Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, only for Italy.
[2020-03-24] Our forecasts are starting to overestimate in some cases. This was always expected to happen when the increase starts to slow down. Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, but only for Italy and Spain sofar.

Initial visual evaluation of forecasts of Confirmed