COVID-19 short-term forecasts

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in Europe 2020-09-08

	UK	EU	AT	BE	BG	BS	CZ	DE	DK	ES	FI	FR	GR	HR	HU	IE	IT	NL	PL	PT	RO	SE	SI	SK	NO	CH
Peak date	04-07	04-02	03-26	04-15	07-24	03-28	--	03-27	04-04	--	04-04	04-12	08-20	09-02	--	04-10	03-24	03-31	08-22	04-10	08-07	06-19	03-31	--	03-26	03-27
Peak daily increment	4728	29678	808	1470	238	283		5662	316		146	19307	225	298		1117	5642	1079	727	830	1239	1075	50		240	1137
Days from 100 to peak	36	71	18	38	126	15		25	26		22	43	161	167		27	30	25	160	28	145	105	18		19	22
Days from peak/2 to peak	24	24	13	32	125	13		14	25		22	24	161	165		21	20	19	155	23	136	99	21		18	17
Last total	352560	2098852	30081	89141	17313	12669	29877	254957	18356	534513	8337	355244	11832	12285	9304	30080	280153	76548	71526	60895	97033	85707	3232	4727	11623	44837
Last daily increment	2460	24693	520	372	167	77	1161	1331	243	8964	10	6262	169	204	341	306	1369	964	400	388	1136	149	42	91	102	245
Last week	13884	150391	2112	3230	696	551	4104	7546	1161	54959	176	41514	1075	1560	2682	966	8638	4685	3009	2262	7142	1175	253	685	589	2074
Days since peak	154	159	166	146	46	164		165	157		157	149	19	6		151	168	161	17	151	32	81	161		166	165

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed 2020-09-08

	Australia	Brazil	Canada	Chile	Colombia	India	Indonesia	Iran	Mexico	Peru	Philippines	Russia	South Africa	Turkey	US	US-AK	US-AL	US-AR	US-AZ	US-CA	US-CO	US-CT	US-DC	US-DE	US-FL	US-GA	US-HI	US-IA	US-ID	US-IL	US-IN	US-KS	US-KY	US-LA	US-MA	US-MD	US-ME	US-MI	US-MN	US-MO	US-MS	US-MT	US-NC	US-ND	US-NE	US-NH	US-NJ	US-NM	US-NV	US-NY	US-OH	US-OK	US-OR	US-PA	US-SC	US-SD	US-TN	US-TX	US-UT	US-VA	US-WA	US-WI	US-WV	US-WY
Peak date	08-02	08-06	05-03	06-06	08-12	--	--	04-01	07-31	--	08-10	05-09	07-16	04-14	07-19	07-26	07-16	07-25	07-04	07-20	04-24	04-20	05-01	04-26	07-17	07-30	08-27	08-27	07-17	09-04	09-04	--	09-05	07-19	04-24	05-06	05-22	04-06	09-05	--	07-24	--	07-18	--	05-01	05-01	04-08	07-23	07-19	04-01	07-03	07-28	07-24	04-09	07-16	08-27	07-27	07-16	07-10	08-07	08-01	07-23	--	04-21
Peak daily increment	483	45366	1991	7362	11198			2860	6738		4293	10913	12483	4816	67025	101	1805	743	3551	9257	729	1012	190	197	11222	3329	241	1663	536	4267	965		690	2160	3312	1017	48	1627	851		1273		1972		441	89	4272	286	1108	9495	1810	963	334	1624	1837	513	2139	9846	495	1425	1071	906		86
Days from 100 to peak	145	144	51	83	145			36	135		146	52	119	27	133	118	117	124	104	131	40	30	39	32	123	136	154	157	114	173	167		166	125	40	48	60	21	169		125		121		34	38	24	120	120	22	106	126	126	23	117	149	130	121	111	141	146	127		22
Days from peak/2 to peak	140	115	43	64	107			29	113		131	34	75	19	118	122	107	118	92	114	35	27	40	32	108	125	152	144	111	161	162		160	118	30	41	65	15	161		117		112		29	41	16	118	113	12	98	120	124	16	108	143	122	105	108	132	140	121		27
Last total	26465	4162073	135757	425541	671533	4370128	200035	391112	642860	691575	241987	1032354	640441	283270	6327009	5827	121879	64812	206045	744344	59651	53670	14362	17853	648980	266298	9999	71017	32924	252310	100780	47012	53319	153242	120742	113239	4714	113050	81410	86339	87379	8381	178635	13872	36326	7491	194360	24860	72104	440578	131992	65008	28356	145156	125908	15403	159357	662427	44414	128350	77239	82477	11662	4105
Last daily increment	92	14279	1462	1267	-315	89706	3046	2302	5351	1598	3260	5020	1079	1761	26387	35	405	312	81	3379	187	405	47	57	1816	1552	66	481	0	1386	386	675	255	258	160	356	13	491	385	741	249	65	716	71	494	17	274	37	137	557	656	828	166	616	301	103	623	3386	287	834	0	717	87	73
Last week	416	164208	3816	10802	38212	516722	19389	12360	31903	34446	15547	30389	9846	9969	213499	466	3659	3656	3184	23063	1652	669	285	594	16595	10324	1033	4562	263	13742	5030	3165	3328	3595	1746	3920	147	4203	4482	7547	3014	690	8082	1605	1482	185	2069	569	2232	4360	6225	4905	1281	4624	5405	1400	7856	20572	2126	5832	2147	5348	1004	194
Days since peak	37	33	128	94	27			160	39		29	122	54	147	51	44	54	45	66	50	137	141	130	135	53	40	12	12	53	4	4		3	51	137	125	109	155	3		46		52		130	130	153	47	51	160	67	42	46	152	54	12	43	54	60	32	38	47		140

Confirmed count forecast Europe (bold red line in graphs) 2020-09-09 to 2020-09-15

Date	UK	EU	AT	BE	BG	BS	CZ	DE	DK	ES	FR	GR	HR	HU	IE	IT	NL	PL	PT	RO	SE	SI	SK	NO	CH
2020-09-08	352560	2098852	30081	89141	17313	12669	29877	254957	18356	534513	355244	11832	12285	9304	30080	280153	76548	71526	60895	97033	85707	3232	4727	11623	44837
2020-09-09	354600	2103000	30380	89580	17490	12680	30380	256200	18530	547400	360100	12150	12510	9670	30190	281300	76550	71810	61240	98100	85770	3269	4727	11730	45120
2020-09-10	356900	2128000	30660	90010	17620	12690	31310	257500	18700	560800	364900	12370	12840	10020	30300	282700	77080	72100	61570	99400	85910	3304	4818	11830	45400
2020-09-11	359300	2158000	30950	90440	17800	12700	32510	259000	18860	574400	370000	12570	13160	10370	30420	284300	77760	72380	61900	100700	86100	3339	4947	11930	45680
2020-09-12	361500	2166000	31230	90860	17860	12710	33320	259700	19020	588600	374700	12750	13460	10720	30530	286000	78340	72670	62220	101900	86110	3373	5113	12030	45970
2020-09-13	363700	2174000	31510	91290	17910	12730	34000	260200	19180	603200	379300	12900	13700	11070	30650	287100	79020	72950	62540	102900	86120	3408	5170	12130	46250
2020-09-14	365700	2221000	31790	91720	17960	12740	34880	261900	19340	618100	383900	13030	13840	11430	30760	288200	79710	73240	62860	103700	86540	3442	5217	12230	46530
2020-09-15	367700	2242000	32070	92150	18120	12750	36110	263100	19510	633400	388600	13200	14040	11800	30870	289200	80440	73530	63190	104700	86690	3477	5292	12330	46820

Confirmed count forecast (bold red line in graphs) 2020-09-09 to 2020-09-15

Date	Australia	Brazil	Canada	Chile	Colombia	India	Indonesia	Iran	Mexico	Peru	Philippines	Russia	South Africa	Turkey	US	US-AK	US-AL	US-AR	US-AZ	US-CA	US-CO	US-CT	US-DC	US-DE	US-FL	US-GA	US-HI	US-IA	US-ID	US-IL	US-IN	US-KS	US-KY	US-LA	US-MA	US-MD	US-MI	US-MN	US-MO	US-MS	US-MT	US-NC	US-ND	US-NE	US-NJ	US-NM	US-NV	US-NY	US-OH	US-OK	US-OR	US-PA	US-SC	US-SD	US-TN	US-TX	US-UT	US-VA	US-WA	US-WI	US-WV
2020-09-08	26465	4162073	135757	425541	671533	4370128	200035	391112	642860	691575	241987	1032354	640441	283270	6327009	5827	121879	64812	206045	744344	59651	53670	14362	17853	648980	266298	9999	71017	32924	252310	100780	47012	53319	153242	120742	113239	113050	81410	86339	87379	8381	178635	13872	36326	194360	24860	72104	440578	131992	65008	28356	145156	125908	15403	159357	662427	44414	128350	77239	82477	11662
2020-09-09	26550	4230000	136800	427000	677300	4502000	203100	393000	647600	699600	245100	1037000	641800	284800	6384000	5872	122600	65300	206600	748000	59960	53890	14410	17920	651700	269700	10410	72330	32940	254500	101900	47820	54190	154200	121400	113800	113800	82040	87420	88600	8525	180500	14100	36630	194700	25090	72480	441200	133000	65430	28600	145600	126600	15600	161200	671900	44610	129300	77630	82720	12050
2020-09-10	26640	4269000	137700	428700	679400	4635000	206600	394800	653400	706800	248100	1042000	642300	286300	6418000	5964	123300	66080	207400	751800	60240	54090	14460	17990	654500	271900	10640	73570	32950	255800	102900	48320	55000	155000	121600	114300	114500	82960	88520	89190	8684	182200	14330	37070	195000	25260	72860	441800	133900	66270	28810	146600	127600	15810	162800	674800	44960	130200	78020	83460	12390
2020-09-11	26720	4308000	138700	430500	681500	4771000	209900	396600	659000	713500	251100	1046000	642500	287800	6460000	6074	124000	66920	208000	755400	60320	54330	14500	18050	657300	273600	10880	74670	32970	257600	103800	49180	55700	155700	121900	114900	115100	83790	89590	89840	8820	184000	14550	37300	195300	25350	73230	442500	134900	67230	29050	147400	129000	15980	164000	679700	45370	131100	78400	84680	12710
2020-09-12	26810	4338000	139500	432300	684400	4916000	213000	398400	664700	720100	254100	1051000	643100	289300	6500000	6160	124700	67440	208700	759100	60860	54550	14540	18120	660100	275600	11100	75650	32980	259600	104800	49560	56410	155700	122400	115400	115800	84580	90690	90350	8964	185600	14780	37470	195500	25460	73610	443100	135900	68250	29290	148100	129900	16220	165400	683600	45700	132000	78790	85520	13070
2020-09-13	26890	4353000	140400	434200	686600	5060000	216200	400100	668900	726700	257200	1055000	644000	290700	6529000	6228	125400	67970	208900	762800	61100	54770	14590	18180	662900	276700	11270	76410	32990	261300	105500	49700	56620	156900	122400	115900	116400	85350	91790	90790	9049	186600	15020	37590	195800	25540	74000	443700	136900	68710	29480	148600	130600	16400	166800	685600	46000	132900	79170	86220	13410
2020-09-14	26970	4366000	141300	435800	686700	5194000	219100	401900	671900	733300	260200	1060000	644000	292200	6551000	6260	126100	68270	208900	766500	61280	54990	14630	18250	665700	277300	11370	76840	33010	262500	106200	50310	56960	157200	122400	116500	117100	85930	92890	91000	9103	187600	15250	37710	196100	25570	74380	444300	137800	69270	29600	149200	131200	16520	167700	686600	46290	133800	79550	86700	13720
2020-09-15	27050	4388000	142200	437000	690100	5337000	221900	403700	677100	739900	263300	1064000	644000	293700	6579000	6290	126800	68570	209300	770200	61520	55210	14680	18310	668500	279200	11480	77310	33020	263900	106700	50810	57420	157500	122400	117000	117800	86280	94000	91420	9176	188600	15490	38120	196400	25620	74770	444900	138800	69990	29770	149800	131600	16670	168500	690800	46540	134700	79940	87380	13910

Confirmed count average forecast Europe (bold black line in graphs) 2020-09-09 to 2020-09-15

Date	UK	EU	AT	BE	BG	BS	CZ	DE	DK	ES	FR	GR	HR	HU	IE	IT	NL	PL	PT	RO	SE	SI	SK	NO	CH
2020-09-08	352560	2098852	30081	89141	17313	12669	29877	254957	18356	534513	355244	11832	12285	9304	30080	280153	76548	71526	60895	97033	85707	3232	4727	11623	44837
2020-09-09	353400	2103000	30170	89440	17430	12740	30130	255600	18420	544300	357700	12030	12510	9570	30110	280600	76580	71940	61190	98100	85720	3256	4770	11690	45030
2020-09-10	354700	2114000	30460	89920	17550	12850	30890	256300	18500	556900	361300	12230	12830	9930	30160	281200	76890	72480	61520	99300	85780	3295	4855	11770	45260
2020-09-11	356200	2130000	30750	90400	17700	12940	31890	257000	18600	569700	365400	12430	13150	10350	30270	282000	77410	73050	61840	100500	85870	3335	4977	11850	45500
2020-09-12	357800	2136000	31040	90900	17790	13040	32520	257400	18710	581300	368800	12620	13470	10740	30380	282800	77960	73580	62150	101700	85870	3372	5118	11930	45760
2020-09-13	359600	2141000	31270	91350	17860	13080	33000	257700	18830	593000	372400	12810	13750	11240	30500	283300	78530	74130	62470	102800	85900	3403	5200	12010	46020
2020-09-14	361200	2161000	31530	91710	17940	13130	33590	258500	18940	609400	377800	12980	14020	11590	30620	283700	79000	74560	62790	103700	86090	3429	5270	12100	46230
2020-09-15	362500	2170000	31790	92070	18090	13170	34380	259100	19060	622700	382100	13180	14280	11980	30740	284200	79450	75120	63100	104800	86150	3459	5349	12180	46440

Confirmed count average forecast (bold black line in graphs) 2020-09-09 to 2020-09-15

Date	Australia	Brazil	Canada	Chile	Colombia	India	Indonesia	Iran	Mexico	Peru	Philippines	Russia	South Africa	Turkey	US	US-AK	US-AL	US-AR	US-AZ	US-CA	US-CO	US-CT	US-DC	US-DE	US-FL	US-GA	US-HI	US-IA	US-ID	US-IL	US-IN	US-KS	US-KY	US-LA	US-MA	US-MD	US-MI	US-MN	US-MO	US-MS	US-MT	US-NC	US-ND	US-NE	US-NJ	US-NM	US-NV	US-NY	US-OH	US-OK	US-OR	US-PA	US-SC	US-SD	US-TN	US-TX	US-UT	US-VA	US-WA	US-WI	US-WV
2020-09-08	26465	4162073	135757	425541	671533	4370128	200035	391112	642860	691575	241987	1032354	640441	283270	6327009	5827	121879	64812	206045	744344	59651	53670	14362	17853	648980	266298	9999	71017	32924	252310	100780	47012	53319	153242	120742	113239	113050	81410	86339	87379	8381	178635	13872	36326	194360	24860	72104	440578	131992	65008	28356	145156	125908	15403	159357	662427	44414	128350	77239	82477	11662
2020-09-09	26490	4198000	135900	426900	676300	4486000	202800	391900	647500	696100	244400	1035000	641500	284500	6352000	5876	122400	65320	206300	746300	59850	53720	14390	17910	651200	267900	10230	71670	32960	254100	101500	47690	53880	153900	120900	113600	113700	81960	87340	87870	8536	179500	14100	36560	194600	24970	72330	441200	133000	65550	28500	145700	126500	15560	160600	665900	44640	129200	77470	82650	11840
2020-09-10	26530	4238000	136200	428600	682900	4616000	206300	393100	653000	702000	247200	1037000	643000	286100	6375000	5955	122900	66010	206900	748500	60100	53790	14430	17970	654000	270000	10450	72580	33070	255800	102500	48230	54610	154600	121000	114100	114400	82790	88590	88450	8696	181200	14410	36900	194900	25130	72670	441800	134200	66340	28710	146500	127400	15860	162000	669000	44970	130100	77810	83340	12100
2020-09-11	26570	4280000	136500	430400	689500	4750000	209600	394200	658300	709800	249900	1040000	644400	287600	6405000	6045	123600	66750	207400	750700	60200	53900	14460	18030	656900	271800	10690	73520	33190	258200	103400	48960	55300	155300	121200	114700	115100	83580	89900	89050	8837	183000	14700	37160	195200	25220	73080	442500	135300	67200	28930	147300	128700	16110	163300	673900	45340	131000	78130	84550	12360
2020-09-12	26610	4312000	137000	432200	696300	4893000	212800	395300	663800	716300	252700	1042000	645800	289100	6431000	6124	124500	67300	208000	752900	60700	54010	14510	18100	659600	273700	10920	74380	33300	260300	104300	49430	56000	155400	121400	115300	115700	84360	91320	89610	8992	184800	15010	37380	195500	25320	73450	443100	136400	68120	29140	148000	129600	16400	164700	677900	45670	131900	78470	85400	12640
2020-09-13	26640	4326000	137400	434100	703000	5034000	216000	396400	668100	723700	255500	1044000	647600	290600	6448000	6191	125200	67840	208300	755100	60910	54120	14540	18160	662700	275100	11120	75170	33420	262100	105200	49810	56430	156500	121500	115700	116300	85160	92440	90140	9082	185900	15280	37590	195800	25430	73810	443700	137000	68740	29350	148600	130400	16700	166000	680200	45980	132700	78750	85990	12880
2020-09-14	26680	4351000	137900	435700	709600	5171000	219000	397500	672000	731300	258400	1047000	649200	292100	6464000	6243	125900	68240	208600	757300	61070	54230	14570	18230	665400	276500	11290	75940	33540	263900	106100	50470	56970	156800	121600	116100	117000	85850	93520	90630	9159	187100	15490	37820	196100	25490	74160	444400	137600	69410	29530	149100	131100	16910	167400	682200	46260	133600	78980	86270	13120
2020-09-15	26720	4391000	138300	437000	716700	5314000	222200	398600	677500	737500	261200	1049000	650600	293700	6483000	6295	126600	68640	209000	759500	61340	54340	14610	18300	668600	278600	11490	76690	33650	265800	106900	50990	57640	157300	121700	116600	117600	86470	94660	91250	9262	188800	15730	38140	196400	25590	74500	445000	138600	70150	29740	149800	131900	17160	168600	686900	46540	134500	79210	86890	13350

Confirmed count scenario forecast (bold purple line in graphs) 2020-09-09 to 2020-09-17

Date	UK	EU	AT	BE	BG	BS	CZ	DE	DK	ES	FR	GR	HR	HU	IE	IT	NL	PL	PT	RO	SE	SI	SK	NO	CH	Australia	Brazil	Canada	Chile	Colombia	India	Indonesia	Iran	Mexico	Peru	Philippines	Russia	South Africa	Turkey	US	US-AK	US-AL	US-AR	US-AZ	US-CA	US-CO	US-CT	US-DC	US-DE	US-FL	US-GA	US-HI	US-IA	US-ID	US-IL	US-IN	US-KS	US-KY	US-LA	US-MA	US-MD	US-MI	US-MN	US-MO	US-MS	US-MT	US-NC	US-ND	US-NE	US-NJ	US-NM	US-NV	US-NY	US-OH	US-OK	US-OR	US-PA	US-SC	US-SD	US-TN	US-TX	US-UT	US-VA	US-WA	US-WI	US-WV
2020-09-08	352560	2098852	30081	89141	17313	12669	29877	254957	18356	534513	355244	11832	12285	9304	30080	280153	76548	71526	60895	97033	85707	3232	4727	11623	44837	26465	4162073	135757	425541	671533	4370128	200035	391112	642860	691575	241987	1032354	640441	283270	6327009	5827	121879	64812	206045	744344	59651	53670	14362	17853	648980	266298	9999	71017	32924	252310	100780	47012	53319	153242	120742	113239	113050	81410	86339	87379	8381	178635	13872	36326	194360	24860	72104	440578	131992	65008	28356	145156	125908	15403	159357	662427	44414	128350	77239	82477	11662
2020-09-09	354100	2117000	30260	89660	17410	12750	30100	256000	18460	542100	358100	12020	12670	9800	30080	281900	76630	71960	61300	98100	85770	3256	4821	11730	45040	26490	4208000	135800	427500	682600	4444000	204100	392800	647000	704800	244400	1036000	642100	284800	6366000	5884	122700	65300	206700	748300	60030	53770	14400	17930	652000	268100	10320	71850	33050	256100	102200	47860	54390	154000	120700	113800	113900	82540	87620	88070	8549	180500	14240	36480	194700	25000	72610	441300	133000	65400	28560	145900	126900	15700	160500	666400	44620	129300	77910	82960	11870
2020-09-10	356700	2145000	30590	90170	17500	12940	30860	257000	18670	552000	363800	12180	12950	10300	30200	283300	77000	72400	61680	99000	85840	3284	4874	11840	45280	26530	4234000	136300	429200	687100	4523000	207700	394400	651000	712700	246900	1040000	643100	286500	6393000	5937	123200	65730	207000	751400	60300	53770	14420	18020	654200	269600	10500	72320	33110	259400	103000	48440	55080	154500	120800	114400	114700	83110	89440	88530	8700	181600	14520	36640	195100	25070	72870	441800	133700	65970	28690	146700	127700	15880	161600	670100	44860	130100	78220	83630	12090
2020-09-11	359400	2178000	30930	90710	17570	13110	31530	257900	18950	562000	371100	12340	13150	10740	30320	284700	77380	72770	62120	100000	85910	3304	4956	11950	45490	26570	4264000	136800	430900	691200	4604000	211100	395900	654600	722900	249000	1045000	644000	288300	6419000	5980	123700	66080	207400	754100	60620	53770	14440	18110	655900	271000	10650	72770	33160	262500	103600	49070	55930	155000	121000	114900	115400	83860	90790	89020	8824	182800	14790	36800	195500	25160	73080	442300	134300	66430	28840	147600	128300	16040	162400	672400	45070	130900	78480	84270	12280
2020-09-12	362100	2205000	31220	91190	17660	13190	32120	258700	19210	570200	378000	12470	13440	11150	30410	285800	77520	73140	62570	100800	86010	3326	5045	12020	45660	26600	4290000	137200	432500	695800	4691000	213900	397000	658200	730500	251000	1049000	644500	289900	6442000	6012	124100	66360	207700	756500	60930	53770	14460	18200	657600	272200	10780	73370	33180	265300	104600	49670	56520	155500	121500	115400	116200	84870	92090	89520	8931	183900	15050	36940	195800	25240	73230	442600	134900	66890	28990	148400	128900	16200	163300	675900	45150	131700	78750	84840	12450
2020-09-13	364500	2233000	31560	91710	17720	13310	32580	259600	19490	578800	384800	12600	13640	11460	30510	287100	77710	73490	62930	101600	86090	3338	5148	12110	45830	26620	4314000	137600	434100	699800	4772000	217000	398000	661000	737700	252500	1053000	645300	291400	6461000	6035	124500	66670	207900	758900	61240	53770	14480	18320	659800	273300	10910	73760	33180	268600	104900	50070	57170	155900	121500	115900	116900	85260	93200	89810	9042	184700	15340	37150	196100	25300	73360	442900	135300	67240	29120	149100	129500	16410	163900	678800	45260	132300	78980	85220	12630
2020-09-14	367100	2258000	31900	92110	17790	13420	33290	260300	19820	589200	394300	12740	13970	11750	30630	288100	78090	73800	63330	102200	86210	3352	5229	12190	45990	26650	4339000	138200	435600	703300	4859000	220900	398900	663500	747600	254300	1057000	645700	292400	6479000	6079	124900	66980	208000	761300	61550	53770	14510	18430	661100	274300	11030	74120	33190	271700	105900	50570	57930	156200	121500	116200	117500	86210	94810	90010	9188	185700	15640	37340	196400	25360	73460	443100	135500	67610	29240	149600	129900	16540	164600	681600	45390	132900	79180	85670	12830
2020-09-15	369600	2281000	32190	92370	17850	13530	33630	261100	20150	597100	401300	12850	14040	12100	30740	289200	78400	74110	63570	102900	86250	3364	5285	12260	46130	26670	4357000	138500	437000	706300	4926000	224100	399600	666400	749600	255600	1060000	645900	293500	6492000	6098	125100	67130	208100	763500	61820	53770	14530	18540	662100	275000	11140	74530	33190	272600	105900	51060	58490	156600	121500	116500	118300	86500	95780	90290	9320	186400	15880	37520	196800	25380	73560	443200	135800	67880	29350	150100	130300	16650	165300	684100	45440	133500	79370	86120	12940
2020-09-16	371900	2309000	32440	92590	17910	13660	34220	261900	20510	606200	407000	12960	14360	12330	30860	290200	78780	74430	63900	103500	86280	3373	5381	12330	46260	26690	4374000	138900	438800	710000	4994000	227700	400300	668300	758500	257000	1062000	645900	294300	6504000	6115	125300	67320	208200	765500	62130	53770	14560	18620	663000	275900	11240	75030	33190	274800	105900	51680	59270	157000	121500	116800	119000	87090	97200	90470	9424	187300	16150	37610	197100	25440	73680	443700	136000	68090	29440	150400	130500	16780	165900	686500	45540	134200	79550	86510	13120
2020-09-17	373300	2332000	32700	93010	17980	13820	34640	261900	20810	614000	413200	13070	14430	12710	30960	291200	78920	74770	63970	104000	86330	3381	5437	12390	46410	26710	4388000	139200	439000	713000	5059000	230500	400800	669800	765800	258400	1065000	645900	294900	6509000	6117	125500	67490	208200	767400	62380	53770	14570	18710	663800	276800	11350	75300	33190	276500	105900	52250	59860	157200	121500	116900	119400	88130	98180	90720	9541	187900	16410	37680	197300	25490	73780	444200	136000	68200	29540	150600	130800	16910	166400	688400	45570	134600	79730	86670	13330

Further information

We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
The forecasts are constructed as follows:
1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.
[2020-06-24] Research presentation on short-term COVID-19 forecasting on 26 June (14:00 UK time) at the Quarterly Forecasting Forum of the IIF UK Chapter.
[2020-06-06] Removed Brazil from yesterday's forecasts (only; last observation 2020-06-05).
[2020-06-04] Data issues with confirmed cases for France.
Added an appendix to the short term paper with further forecast comparisons for European and Latin American countries.
Both Sweden and Iran have lost their peak in confirmed cases. For Sweden the previous peak was on 24 April (daily peak of 656 cases), for Iran it was on 31 March (peak of 3116). For Iran this looks like a second wave, with increasing daily counts for the last four weeks. For Sweden this is a sudden jump in confirmed cases in the last two days, compared to a fairly steady weekly pattern over the previous six weeks.
[2020-05-20] Problem with UK confirmed cases: negative daily count. This makes the forecasts temporarily unreliable.
Updated the second paper.
[2020-05-18] Minor fixes to the improved version of scenario forecasting, backported to 2020-05-13.
[2020-05-13] We now omit countries with fewer than 200 confirmed cases in the last week (25 for deaths).
The short-term paper has some small updates, including further comparisons with other models.
Data for Ecuador are not reliable enough for forecasting.
Switched to an improved version of scenario forecasting.
[2020-05-06] The New York Times is in the process of redefining its US state data. Unfortunately, at the moment only the last observation has changed (e.g New York deaths jumped from 19645 on 2020-05-05 to 25956 a day later). This means the data is currently useless; however it does bring it close to the Johns Hopkins/CSSE count (25626 on 2020-05-06). The aggregate US count is based on JH/CSSE so unaffected. We now use Johns Hopkins/CSSE US state data, including all states with sufficient counts. So the new forecasts cannot be compared to those previously.
A minor change is that we show the graph without scenario forecast if no peak has been detected yet.
[2020-04-29] See our blog entry at the International Institute of Forecasters.
US history of death counts revised in Johns Hopkins/CSSE data.
UK death counts have been revised to include the deaths in care homes. In the Johns Hopkins/CSSE data set, which we use, the entire history has been revised. So forecasts made up to 2020-04-29 cannot be compared to later outcomes. In the ECDC data set only the last observation has changed, causing a jump in the series.
[2020-04-27] Our short-term COVID-19 forecasting paper is now available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06.
A small adjustment has been made to the scenario forecast methodology, and will be documented shortly.
[2020-04-24] A summary of our work on short-term COVID-19 forecasting appeared as a voxeu.
[2020-04-17] Bird and Nielsen look into nowcasting death counts in England.
[2020-04-16] Added scenario forecasts to all graphs now. This would now be the preferred forecast for most.
This is the first time with a peak in confirmed UK cases (also for deaths, but this is uncertain because it is at the same date).
[2020-04-10] Updated documentation with better description of short-term estimates and peak determination.
[2020-04-09] Added table with estimated peak dates (if happened) and dates to and since the peak. Note that this can be a local peak, and subsequent re-acceleration (or data revisions) can result in a new peak later.
[2020-04-08] Minor correction to peak estimates. Added table with scenario forecasts.
[2020-04-06] Added a post hoc estimate of the peak number of cases. This needs at least three confirmed observations (four for deaths) after the event. It is based on the averaged smooth trend, and can change later or be a local peak. It is marked with a vertical line with the date label, or a date with left arrow in the bottom left corner of the graph. This is backported to 2020-04-04.
[2020-04-02] Now including more US States, based on New York Times data.
[2020-03-31] Scenario forecasts, based on what happened in China earlier this year, are presented for several countries (line marked with x). Created more plausible 90% confidence bands (dotted line in same colour).
[2020-03-26] Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, only for Italy.
[2020-03-24] Our forecasts are starting to overestimate in some cases. This was always expected to happen when the increase starts to slow down. Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, but only for Italy and Spain sofar.

COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2020-09-08

General information