COVID-19 short-term forecasts

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in Europe 2020-09-10

	UK	EU	AT	BE	BG	BS	CZ	DE	DK	ES	FI	FR	GR	HR	HU	IE	IT	NL	PL	PT	RO	SE	SI	SK	NO	CH
Peak date	04-07	04-02	03-26	04-15	07-24	03-28	--	03-27	04-04	09-07	04-04	04-12	--	09-04	--	04-10	03-24	03-31	08-22	04-10	08-08	06-19	--	--	03-26	03-27
Peak daily increment	4728	29680	808	1470	238	283		5662	316	10668	146	19306		292		1117	5642	1079	725	830	1236	1075			240	1137
Days from 100 to peak	36	71	18	38	126	15		25	26	188	22	44		169		27	30	25	160	28	146	105			19	22
Days from peak/2 to peak	24	24	13	32	125	13		14	25	177	22	24		167		21	20	19	155	23	137	99			18	17
Last total	358138	2158591	31247	90568	17598	12887	32413	258149	18924	554143	8469	372501	12452	12917	10191	30360	283180	78511	72453	62126	99684	86194	3389	5066	11867	45711
Last daily increment	2919	31628	664	877	163	116	1377	1716	317	10764	39	8750	372	291	476	196	1597	823	506	585	1380	314	77	178	121	405
Last week	15787	155312	2518	3394	644	573	5164	7866	1377	55154	244	42989	1252	1489	2809	1057	8536	5303	2633	2669	7089	1209	310	766	636	2179
Days since peak	156	161	168	148	48	166		167	159	3	159	151		6		153	170	163	19	153	33	83			168	167

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed 2020-09-10

	Australia	Brazil	Canada	Chile	Colombia	India	Indonesia	Iran	Mexico	Peru	Philippines	Russia	South Africa	Turkey	US	US-AK	US-AL	US-AR	US-AZ	US-CA	US-CO	US-CT	US-DC	US-DE	US-FL	US-GA	US-HI	US-IA	US-ID	US-IL	US-IN	US-KS	US-KY	US-LA	US-MA	US-MD	US-ME	US-MI	US-MN	US-MO	US-MS	US-MT	US-NC	US-ND	US-NE	US-NH	US-NJ	US-NM	US-NV	US-NY	US-OH	US-OK	US-OR	US-PA	US-SC	US-SD	US-TN	US-TX	US-UT	US-VA	US-WA	US-WI	US-WV	US-WY
Peak date	08-02	08-04	05-03	06-06	08-13	--	--	04-01	07-31	09-07	08-10	05-09	07-16	04-14	07-19	07-26	07-16	07-25	07-04	07-20	04-24	04-20	05-01	04-26	07-17	07-30	08-27	08-27	--	09-04	09-04	09-02	09-05	07-19	04-24	05-06	05-22	04-06	09-05	--	07-24	--	07-18	--	05-01	05-01	04-08	07-23	07-19	04-01	07-03	07-28	07-24	04-09	07-16	08-27	07-27	07-16	07-10	08-07	08-01	--	--	04-21
Peak daily increment	483	45353	1991	7363	11473			2860	6738	8498	4364	10917	12483	4816	67031	101	1805	743	3552	9257	729	1012	190	197	11222	3329	240	1674		4103	949	601	671	2160	3312	1017	48	1627	793		1273		1972		441	89	4272	286	1108	9495	1810	963	334	1624	1837	493	2139	9846	495	1435	1071			86
Days from 100 to peak	145	141	51	83	146			36	135	172	146	52	120	27	133	118	117	124	104	131	40	30	39	32	123	136	154	157		173	167	162	166	125	40	48	59	21	169		125		121		34	38	24	120	120	22	106	126	126	23	117	149	130	121	111	141	146			22
Days from peak/2 to peak	140	113	43	64	107			29	113	151	130	34	75	19	118	122	107	118	92	114	35	27	40	32	108	125	152	144		161	162	157	160	118	30	41	65	15	161		117		112		29	41	16	118	113	12	98	120	124	16	108	144	122	105	108	132	140			27
Last total	26564	4238446	136956	428669	694664	4562414	207203	395488	652364	702776	248947	1042836	644438	286455	6396551	6011	123267	65687	207002	750961	60155	53990	14412	18005	653607	270148	10266	72455	34615	255597	102243	47802	54772	155228	121295	114078	4759	114977	82057	88806	88322	8663	180754	14443	37216	7570	195106	25106	72546	441911	134086	66684	28654	146696	126592	15834	163027	669592	44961	130460	78167	84881	12016	4199
Last daily increment	40	40557	821	1642	7813	96551	3861	2063	5043	6586	3804	5310	2007	1512	35286	121	687	438	461	3671	264	230	25	152	2471	1920	169	862	316	1975	758	378	795	466	375	503	46	948	372	1154	517	195	1218	333	448	79	415	161	288	757	1121	810	183	667	379	263	2861	2092	288	1231	457	1547	202	47
Last week	357	146645	3815	10200	44601	539235	19666	12716	29274	32631	16875	30849	9360	9900	196033	428	3978	2742	2322	20299	1888	725	226	547	14485	9606	818	3740	1691	10288	4359	2437	3095	3946	1700	3247	127	4367	3257	7157	2383	644	6501	1470	1696	204	1991	525	1834	3940	5642	4698	1053	4201	3267	1238	8609	18242	1873	5722	2122	5527	974	209
Days since peak	39	37	130	96	28			162	41	3	31	124	56	149	53	46	56	47	68	52	139	143	132	137	55	42	14	14		6	6	8	5	53	139	127	111	157	5		48		54		132	132	155	49	53	162	69	44	48	154	56	14	45	56	62	34	40			142

Confirmed count forecast Europe (bold red line in graphs) 2020-09-11 to 2020-09-17

Date	UK	EU	AT	BE	BG	BS	CZ	DE	DK	ES	FI	FR	GR	HR	HU	IE	IT	NL	PL	PT	RO	SE	SI	SK	NO	CH
2020-09-10	358138	2158591	31247	90568	17598	12887	32413	258149	18924	554143	8469	372501	12452	12917	10191	30360	283180	78511	72453	62126	99684	86194	3389	5066	11867	45711
2020-09-11	360600	2171000	31840	90790	17780	12980	32410	259500	19140	561000	8515	378300	12970	13230	11010	30480	283900	79250	73720	62790	100800	86260	3451	5207	11970	46030
2020-09-12	363000	2182000	32370	91400	17850	13070	32410	260100	19340	561600	8556	383800	13310	13520	11720	30600	285200	80070	74250	63390	102100	86280	3511	5450	12070	46340
2020-09-13	365500	2193000	32910	91880	17880	13160	32900	260700	19540	561900	8601	389200	13650	13760	12430	30720	286300	80970	74660	64000	103100	86280	3569	5568	12170	46650
2020-09-14	367800	2238000	33420	92180	17940	13200	33430	262400	19740	586600	8642	394300	13960	13910	13040	30840	287100	81680	74900	64570	103900	86730	3626	5643	12280	46940
2020-09-15	370000	2258000	33940	92500	18110	13270	34320	263700	19930	594400	8683	399500	14140	14080	13650	30960	288000	82310	75390	65140	104900	86880	3682	5742	12380	47240
2020-09-16	372300	2284000	34450	93000	18240	13370	35420	265000	20130	603200	8724	404600	14510	14400	14200	31070	289100	83270	75790	65720	106200	87020	3738	5918	12480	47540
2020-09-17	374700	2311000	34970	93720	18400	13460	37180	266600	20330	612700	8765	409700	14910	14700	14710	31190	290500	84010	76310	66290	107500	87280	3793	6114	12580	47840

Confirmed count forecast (bold red line in graphs) 2020-09-11 to 2020-09-17

Date	Australia	Brazil	Canada	Chile	Colombia	India	Indonesia	Iran	Mexico	Peru	Philippines	Russia	South Africa	Turkey	US	US-AK	US-AL	US-AR	US-AZ	US-CA	US-CO	US-CT	US-DC	US-DE	US-FL	US-GA	US-HI	US-IA	US-ID	US-IL	US-IN	US-KS	US-KY	US-LA	US-MA	US-MD	US-MI	US-MN	US-MO	US-MS	US-MT	US-NC	US-ND	US-NE	US-NH	US-NJ	US-NM	US-NV	US-NY	US-OH	US-OK	US-OR	US-PA	US-SC	US-SD	US-TN	US-TX	US-UT	US-VA	US-WA	US-WI	US-WV	US-WY
2020-09-10	26564	4238446	136956	428669	694664	4562414	207203	395488	652364	702776	248947	1042836	644438	286455	6396551	6011	123267	65687	207002	750961	60155	53990	14412	18005	653607	270148	10266	72455	34615	255597	102243	47802	54772	155228	121295	114078	114977	82057	88806	88322	8663	180754	14443	37216	7570	195106	25106	72546	441911	134086	66684	28654	146696	126592	15834	163027	669592	44961	130460	78167	84881	12016	4199
2020-09-11	26630	4309000	137400	430500	702500	4699000	213200	397400	658700	709700	252000	1048000	646000	288000	6459000	6085	124000	66690	207900	757600	60320	54070	14460	18080	656300	273700	10730	73950	34830	258100	103700	48950	55800	156000	121300	114600	115500	83290	89960	89690	8946	183500	14700	37440	7591	195400	25320	72880	442600	135500	67430	28990	147500	128500	16100	164200	678400	45310	131400	78560	85190	12170	4232
2020-09-12	26700	4339000	137900	432300	709800	4838000	218400	399300	664600	716100	254900	1053000	647200	289400	6498000	6154	124600	67230	208600	759700	60870	54160	14500	18150	659100	275500	10940	74720	34990	260100	104600	49310	56540	156000	121300	115100	116300	84140	91080	90170	9155	185200	14950	37630	7613	195700	25420	73210	443200	136800	68160	29220	148200	129400	16350	165600	682100	45660	132300	78930	86100	12310	4264
2020-09-13	26760	4350000	138400	434300	717700	4973000	223600	401200	668600	722300	257900	1058000	648500	290900	6525000	6221	125300	67750	208800	761400	61110	54250	14540	18220	661800	276500	11080	75210	35190	261500	105300	49410	56750	157300	121300	115600	116600	84790	92220	90530	9285	186200	15190	37740	7636	196100	25500	73530	443800	137500	68890	29390	148700	130100	16540	167000	684300	45970	133200	79310	86860	12460	4297
2020-09-14	26830	4366000	138900	435900	725100	5107000	228800	403000	671700	728400	260800	1063000	649600	292300	6548000	6286	126000	68040	208900	762900	61280	54350	14580	18290	664400	277200	11190	75620	35370	263000	106000	50020	57120	157600	121300	116100	117500	85340	93330	90750	9420	187100	15440	37870	7658	196400	25540	73860	444500	138200	69600	29520	149300	130600	16720	168000	684900	46240	134100	79680	87310	12600	4329
2020-09-15	26900	4391000	139300	437000	732600	5241000	234100	404900	676900	734400	263800	1068000	651300	293700	6577000	6351	126600	68330	209200	765800	61520	54440	14620	18350	667100	278900	11310	76040	35550	264500	106500	50570	57550	157900	121300	116700	118100	85720	94450	91170	9549	188100	15680	38280	7680	196700	25580	74190	445100	139000	70320	29690	149900	131000	16890	168800	688900	46500	135000	80050	87990	12740	4361
2020-09-16	26960	4425000	139800	438400	740100	5392000	239500	406700	681200	740500	266700	1073000	652900	295200	6608000	6417	127300	68790	209500	767400	61730	54530	14660	18420	669800	280600	11450	76590	35730	266000	107200	51110	58200	159200	121300	117200	118900	86080	95580	91580	9724	188900	15920	38700	7702	197000	25680	74530	445700	140000	71040	29780	150800	131400	17050	169900	692800	46770	136000	80420	88810	12880	4393
2020-09-17	27030	4462000	140300	440000	747700	5547000	245500	408600	686300	746600	269700	1078000	654700	296600	6642000	6483	128000	69320	210100	771000	61990	54620	14700	18490	672600	282600	11630	77430	35910	267500	108000	51520	58950	159700	121300	117700	119700	86660	96710	92090	9969	190300	16170	39120	7724	197300	25840	74860	446300	141100	71770	29980	151400	131900	17310	172200	695300	47050	136900	80790	89990	13020	4425

Confirmed count average forecast Europe (bold black line in graphs) 2020-09-11 to 2020-09-17

Date	UK	EU	AT	BE	BG	BS	CZ	DE	DK	ES	FI	FR	GR	HR	HU	IE	IT	NL	PL	PT	RO	SE	SI	SK	NO	CH
2020-09-10	358138	2158591	31247	90568	17598	12887	32413	258149	18924	554143	8469	372501	12452	12917	10191	30360	283180	78511	72453	62126	99684	86194	3389	5066	11867	45711
2020-09-11	359500	2163000	31340	90680	17730	12960	32590	258800	18990	560200	8481	376700	12630	13160	10570	30420	283900	78890	72940	62300	100700	86200	3424	5132	11940	45850
2020-09-12	361300	2169000	31540	91150	17810	13050	33060	259100	19110	565200	8495	380500	12880	13420	11060	30510	284800	79360	73460	62550	101800	86210	3482	5267	12040	46090
2020-09-13	363300	2176000	31770	91610	17870	13130	33610	259400	19260	570200	8508	384900	13120	13680	11610	30620	285400	80010	73920	62890	102900	86230	3540	5394	12130	46340
2020-09-14	365200	2200000	32070	92000	17950	13210	34280	260300	19430	587700	8525	392600	13350	13910	12090	30740	285800	80670	74280	63220	103900	86440	3590	5518	12230	46580
2020-09-15	366900	2211000	32400	92390	18100	13240	35220	260900	19600	596100	8543	398100	13580	14140	12520	30870	286300	81270	74820	63550	104900	86520	3647	5648	12320	46820
2020-09-16	368700	2223000	32720	92860	18230	13330	36170	261500	19770	604900	8561	403900	13880	14440	12950	30990	286900	81830	75310	63880	106100	86580	3711	5791	12420	47060
2020-09-17	370700	2235000	33090	93350	18360	13400	37150	262200	19940	614500	8579	409800	14220	14750	13400	31110	287600	82430	75920	64220	107400	86680	3772	5938	12510	47300

Confirmed count average forecast (bold black line in graphs) 2020-09-11 to 2020-09-17

Date	Australia	Brazil	Canada	Chile	Colombia	India	Indonesia	Iran	Mexico	Peru	Philippines	Russia	South Africa	Turkey	US	US-AK	US-AL	US-AR	US-AZ	US-CA	US-CO	US-CT	US-DC	US-DE	US-FL	US-GA	US-HI	US-IA	US-ID	US-IL	US-IN	US-KS	US-KY	US-LA	US-MA	US-MD	US-MI	US-MN	US-MO	US-MS	US-MT	US-NC	US-ND	US-NE	US-NH	US-NJ	US-NM	US-NV	US-NY	US-OH	US-OK	US-OR	US-PA	US-SC	US-SD	US-TN	US-TX	US-UT	US-VA	US-WA	US-WI	US-WV	US-WY
2020-09-10	26564	4238446	136956	428669	694664	4562414	207203	395488	652364	702776	248947	1042836	644438	286455	6396551	6011	123267	65687	207002	750961	60155	53990	14412	18005	653607	270148	10266	72455	34615	255597	102243	47802	54772	155228	121295	114078	114977	82057	88806	88322	8663	180754	14443	37216	7570	195106	25106	72546	441911	134086	66684	28654	146696	126592	15834	163027	669592	44961	130460	78167	84881	12016	4199
2020-09-11	26600	4274000	137200	430500	699300	4679000	211800	396500	657500	707300	250500	1045000	645100	287900	6427000	6060	123800	66370	207400	753100	60240	54050	14450	18060	655900	271700	10460	73330	34790	257900	103000	48470	55360	155800	121400	114600	115400	82660	89940	88820	8842	182300	14670	37340	7575	195300	25170	72830	442500	135200	67340	28850	147500	127600	16050	163900	673600	45300	131200	78380	85050	12150	4216
2020-09-12	26630	4304000	137500	432300	705200	4818000	216600	397800	663000	713600	252800	1048000	646200	289500	6453000	6136	124600	66900	207900	754900	60740	54160	14490	18130	658700	273500	10660	74170	34990	259800	103900	48930	56020	155900	121600	115200	116000	83430	91190	89300	9037	183900	14940	37530	7590	195600	25270	73180	443100	136300	68170	29060	148200	128500	16310	165300	677400	45630	132100	78730	85830	12310	4238
2020-09-13	26670	4318000	137800	434200	711800	4956000	221600	399000	667200	719800	255400	1050000	647300	291000	6468000	6204	125200	67440	208200	756600	60960	54260	14530	18200	661400	274700	10820	74890	35190	261100	104700	49260	56430	157100	121600	115700	116500	84150	92420	89720	9181	184900	15190	37710	7611	195900	25340	73530	443700	136900	68880	29240	148800	129200	16540	166600	679600	45950	132900	78990	86540	12470	4264
2020-09-14	26710	4336000	138200	435800	718200	5091000	226600	400200	671000	726000	258000	1052000	648400	292600	6480000	6258	125900	67830	208500	758200	61130	54380	14560	18280	663900	275600	10950	75550	35390	262500	105500	49850	56910	157400	121700	116200	117300	84780	93600	90070	9303	185800	15440	37910	7634	196200	25380	73850	444400	137600	69610	29390	149500	129900	16720	167800	680600	46250	133800	79210	86960	12640	4293
2020-09-15	26740	4366000	138700	437100	724500	5231000	231600	401400	676100	732200	260600	1055000	649700	294100	6497000	6311	126400	68210	208800	760000	61360	54490	14590	18350	666700	277500	11110	76240	35590	264000	106200	50380	57460	157700	121800	116600	117900	85330	94730	90560	9445	187100	15680	38240	7658	196500	25440	74150	445000	138400	70340	29580	150100	130500	16930	168800	684900	46520	134700	79380	87530	12800	4327
2020-09-16	26780	4410000	139100	438400	731800	5385000	236700	402600	680800	738500	263200	1057000	651100	295700	6516000	6375	127100	68730	209200	761900	61570	54610	14610	18430	669400	279400	11330	77080	35790	265900	107000	51020	58140	158700	121900	117000	118600	85950	96020	91150	9641	188200	15960	38570	7681	196800	25570	74430	445600	139300	71080	29740	150800	131100	17130	170100	689500	46820	135500	79610	88180	12970	4359
2020-09-17	26820	4454000	139500	440100	739800	5542000	242500	403800	686100	744800	265900	1059000	652500	297300	6536000	6451	127700	69370	209800	764600	61830	54730	14650	18500	672500	281600	11560	78090	35990	267400	108000	51560	58880	159300	122100	117500	119200	86770	97310	91750	9874	190000	16250	38910	7705	197100	25760	74740	446200	140500	71900	29960	151600	132100	17440	171800	692500	47140	136400	79940	88940	13140	4391

Confirmed count scenario forecast (bold purple line in graphs) 2020-09-11 to 2020-09-19

Date	UK	EU	AT	BE	BG	BS	CZ	DE	DK	ES	FI	FR	GR	HR	HU	IE	IT	NL	PL	PT	RO	SE	SI	SK	NO	CH	Australia	Brazil	Canada	Chile	Colombia	India	Indonesia	Iran	Mexico	Peru	Philippines	Russia	South Africa	Turkey	US	US-AK	US-AL	US-AR	US-AZ	US-CA	US-CO	US-CT	US-DC	US-DE	US-FL	US-GA	US-HI	US-IA	US-ID	US-IL	US-IN	US-KS	US-KY	US-LA	US-MA	US-MD	US-MI	US-MN	US-MO	US-MS	US-MT	US-NC	US-ND	US-NE	US-NH	US-NJ	US-NM	US-NV	US-NY	US-OH	US-OK	US-OR	US-PA	US-SC	US-SD	US-TN	US-TX	US-UT	US-VA	US-WA	US-WI	US-WV	US-WY
2020-09-10	358138	2158591	31247	90568	17598	12887	32413	258149	18924	554143	8469	372501	12452	12917	10191	30360	283180	78511	72453	62126	99684	86194	3389	5066	11867	45711	26564	4238446	136956	428669	694664	4562414	207203	395488	652364	702776	248947	1042836	644438	286455	6396551	6011	123267	65687	207002	750961	60155	53990	14412	18005	653607	270148	10266	72455	34615	255597	102243	47802	54772	155228	121295	114078	114977	82057	88806	88322	8663	180754	14443	37216	7570	195106	25106	72546	441911	134086	66684	28654	146696	126592	15834	163027	669592	44961	130460	78167	84881	12016	4199
2020-09-11	361200	2197000	31550	91100	17670	12970	32520	259000	19110	560600	8518	381000	12670	13170	10740	30520	284600	79570	73050	62630	102000	86220	3444	5162	11970	46000	26600	4264000	137100	431000	699700	4644000	211700	397800	656100	715700	251000	1046000	644700	288900	6425000	6017	123800	66140	207300	753900	60500	54380	14470	18050	656000	271400	10490	73330	35130	259700	104000	48630	55710	155700	121300	114700	115800	84020	90500	88750	8799	182000	14720	37340	7570	195500	25170	72830	442500	134800	67090	28810	147500	127600	16200	163500	673800	45240	131200	78440	86070	12280	4224
2020-09-12	365100	2232000	31930	91810	17740	13140	33060	260100	19300	570000	8567	389600	12890	13470	11230	30740	285900	81000	73540	63200	103400	86380	3495	5257	12080	46330	26630	4286000	137500	432700	704500	4725000	216200	400300	659200	729900	252700	1051000	645500	291000	6449000	6056	124300	66550	207700	756600	60780	54560	14510	18130	658300	272500	10620	73700	35560	261100	104800	49130	56580	156200	121400	115300	117600	85170	91600	89140	8891	183000	14960	37630	7589	196100	25220	73110	443100	135600	67600	28940	148700	128200	16400	164400	676400	45490	131900	78700	87430	12450	4265
2020-09-13	370500	2268000	32320	92440	17820	13220	33760	261200	19570	580300	8597	399800	13160	13690	11770	30940	287100	82500	73960	63650	104900	86520	3570	5411	12180	46630	26660	4304000	137700	434500	708100	4821000	220700	403100	662200	738400	254200	1056000	646200	292700	6467000	6107	124900	66910	208000	759300	61100	54620	14560	18220	660400	273600	10770	74060	35810	264200	106100	49670	57450	156600	121500	115800	119100	86210	93200	89500	8985	183900	15180	37940	7618	196700	25260	73300	443700	136300	68070	29090	149500	128900	16610	165200	679500	45720	132600	78910	88350	12780	4304
2020-09-14	375400	2304000	32830	92950	17890	13280	34530	262400	19820	594100	8625	411700	13360	13910	12410	31190	288300	84150	74400	63950	106600	86680	3631	5510	12280	46950	26690	4326000	138000	436400	712600	4925000	224900	406500	665600	748400	256000	1061000	646800	294700	6484000	6137	125300	67220	208200	760700	61410	54710	14600	18310	662400	274600	10920	74290	36160	267200	107500	50130	58430	156900	121900	116300	121000	87240	95300	89750	9107	184600	15430	38230	7645	197300	25290	73500	444400	137000	68430	29190	151100	129400	16850	165800	681800	45920	133400	79150	89690	13010	4339
2020-09-15	381300	2325000	33230	93800	17960	13510	34810	263300	20080	602800	8656	422300	13560	14140	12800	31470	289300	86030	74870	64860	108200	86780	3690	5617	12360	47190	26710	4344000	138200	438000	715700	4980000	227000	409800	668000	756000	257400	1067000	647000	296100	6504000	6184	125500	67540	208400	762400	61740	54840	14630	18400	664400	275600	11000	74660	36250	268400	108000	50770	58710	157200	122000	116800	121600	87760	96600	89980	9220	185500	15650	38420	7673	198200	25300	73690	445100	137400	68680	29280	152800	130000	17010	166400	683900	46120	133900	79370	89860	13180	4382
2020-09-16	385300	2359000	33550	94470	18010	13620	35380	264300	20420	613100	8685	438700	13750	14370	13370	31640	290300	88200	75200	65530	109900	86910	3747	5700	12440	47450	26730	4362000	138300	439400	719300	5075000	231300	413000	670100	770000	258700	1076000	647300	298600	6523000	6215	125900	67760	208600	764000	62150	54920	14670	18490	665600	276600	11080	75400	36400	268700	109000	51400	59060	157400	122100	117400	122100	88450	97100	90270	9384	186000	15950	38730	7699	198700	25340	73820	446000	137600	68950	29340	154400	130600	17210	167000	685300	46430	134500	79590	91050	13400	4422
2020-09-17	388700	2381000	33910	95510	18070	13690	35910	265100	20770	619700	8709	452800	13960	14530	13910	31850	291300	90560	75560	66110	110500	87060	3801	5801	12510	47730	26740	4378000	138500	441100	723000	5138000	234700	416400	672000	776700	260200	1076000	647500	300800	6542000	6245	126200	67950	208700	764700	62490	55030	14710	18580	666800	277400	11210	75810	36550	269200	110500	51770	59600	157500	122200	117800	122800	88800	98700	90510	9489	186500	16180	38980	7723	199100	25340	73970	446500	137900	69250	29430	155800	130900	17320	167600	687300	46500	134900	79750	91590	13560	4453
2020-09-18	391800	2408000	34200	96520	18120	13790	36160	265800	21120	629200	8738	466900	14150	14670	14210	32160	292100	93030	75950	66700	111600	87140	3852	5895	12570	48040	26760	4394000	138700	442200	726900	5203000	237800	419500	674100	787100	261400	1079000	647600	302500	6548000	6259	126600	68200	208800	765900	62900	55130	14760	18760	667500	278100	11430	76030	36700	269200	111500	52220	60180	157600	122400	118300	123500	89090	100600	90680	9573	187100	16450	39250	7758	199400	25370	74060	447300	138100	69450	29500	156500	131300	17470	168000	688600	46660	135400	79890	92400	13740	4494
2020-09-19	395300	2429000	34530	97500	18180	13910	36590	266500	21590	634800	8798	483700	14350	14810	14770	32370	292900	95250	76340	67050	112900	87140	3890	5975	12640	48330	26770	4407000	138900	443400	729200	5280000	240700	425900	676000	798800	262300	1084000	647900	305400	6557000	6279	126800	68400	208900	766900	63180	55170	14790	19020	668100	278700	11560	76300	36930	269200	112400	52710	60820	157600	122600	118700	123700	89570	102300	90810	9732	187400	16670	39900	7784	199700	25370	74080	448100	138300	69690	29580	157200	131700	17580	168300	690200	46690	135800	80030	93420	13860	4535

Further information

We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
The forecasts are constructed as follows:
1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.
[2020-06-24] Research presentation on short-term COVID-19 forecasting on 26 June (14:00 UK time) at the Quarterly Forecasting Forum of the IIF UK Chapter.
[2020-06-06] Removed Brazil from yesterday's forecasts (only; last observation 2020-06-05).
[2020-06-04] Data issues with confirmed cases for France.
Added an appendix to the short term paper with further forecast comparisons for European and Latin American countries.
Both Sweden and Iran have lost their peak in confirmed cases. For Sweden the previous peak was on 24 April (daily peak of 656 cases), for Iran it was on 31 March (peak of 3116). For Iran this looks like a second wave, with increasing daily counts for the last four weeks. For Sweden this is a sudden jump in confirmed cases in the last two days, compared to a fairly steady weekly pattern over the previous six weeks.
[2020-05-20] Problem with UK confirmed cases: negative daily count. This makes the forecasts temporarily unreliable.
Updated the second paper.
[2020-05-18] Minor fixes to the improved version of scenario forecasting, backported to 2020-05-13.
[2020-05-13] We now omit countries with fewer than 200 confirmed cases in the last week (25 for deaths).
The short-term paper has some small updates, including further comparisons with other models.
Data for Ecuador are not reliable enough for forecasting.
Switched to an improved version of scenario forecasting.
[2020-05-06] The New York Times is in the process of redefining its US state data. Unfortunately, at the moment only the last observation has changed (e.g New York deaths jumped from 19645 on 2020-05-05 to 25956 a day later). This means the data is currently useless; however it does bring it close to the Johns Hopkins/CSSE count (25626 on 2020-05-06). The aggregate US count is based on JH/CSSE so unaffected. We now use Johns Hopkins/CSSE US state data, including all states with sufficient counts. So the new forecasts cannot be compared to those previously.
A minor change is that we show the graph without scenario forecast if no peak has been detected yet.
[2020-04-29] See our blog entry at the International Institute of Forecasters.
US history of death counts revised in Johns Hopkins/CSSE data.
UK death counts have been revised to include the deaths in care homes. In the Johns Hopkins/CSSE data set, which we use, the entire history has been revised. So forecasts made up to 2020-04-29 cannot be compared to later outcomes. In the ECDC data set only the last observation has changed, causing a jump in the series.
[2020-04-27] Our short-term COVID-19 forecasting paper is now available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06.
A small adjustment has been made to the scenario forecast methodology, and will be documented shortly.
[2020-04-24] A summary of our work on short-term COVID-19 forecasting appeared as a voxeu.
[2020-04-17] Bird and Nielsen look into nowcasting death counts in England.
[2020-04-16] Added scenario forecasts to all graphs now. This would now be the preferred forecast for most.
This is the first time with a peak in confirmed UK cases (also for deaths, but this is uncertain because it is at the same date).
[2020-04-10] Updated documentation with better description of short-term estimates and peak determination.
[2020-04-09] Added table with estimated peak dates (if happened) and dates to and since the peak. Note that this can be a local peak, and subsequent re-acceleration (or data revisions) can result in a new peak later.
[2020-04-08] Minor correction to peak estimates. Added table with scenario forecasts.
[2020-04-06] Added a post hoc estimate of the peak number of cases. This needs at least three confirmed observations (four for deaths) after the event. It is based on the averaged smooth trend, and can change later or be a local peak. It is marked with a vertical line with the date label, or a date with left arrow in the bottom left corner of the graph. This is backported to 2020-04-04.
[2020-04-02] Now including more US States, based on New York Times data.
[2020-03-31] Scenario forecasts, based on what happened in China earlier this year, are presented for several countries (line marked with x). Created more plausible 90% confidence bands (dotted line in same colour).
[2020-03-26] Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, only for Italy.
[2020-03-24] Our forecasts are starting to overestimate in some cases. This was always expected to happen when the increase starts to slow down. Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, but only for Italy and Spain sofar.

COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2020-09-10

General information