COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2020-09-21


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
    Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in Europe 2020-09-21

UKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
Peak date04-07 -- -- --07-24 --09-1703-27 -- --04-0404-12 --08-26 --04-1003-24 -- --04-10 --06-19 -- --03-2603-27
Peak daily increment 4728 238 2275 5662 146 19306 269 1117 5642 830 1075 240 1137
Days from 100 to peak 36 126 189 25 22 44 160 27 30 28 105 19 22
Days from peak/2 to peak 24 125 178 14 22 24 158 21 20 23 99 18 17
Last total 398625 2526090 38658 103392 19014 14671 50764 275560 23323 671468 9046 473974 15595 14992 18866 33121 299506 95995 79988 69200 113589 88237 4470 6756 13005 50378
Last daily increment 4368 73584 563 1097 151 285 1474 1595 418 31428 66 28996 453 70 876 188 1350 2217 748 623 808 0 50 79 108 1095
Last week 24397 221090 4353 8597 798 1268 11868 10546 2752 68301 321 61614 1865 1243 4987 1572 9516 11217 4854 4179 8291 892 639 988 612 2627
Days since peak 167 59 4 178 170 162 26 164 181 164 94 179 178

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed 2020-09-21

AustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
Peak date08-0208-0405-0306-0608-1309-16 -- --07-3108-2108-1005-0907-1604-1407-1907-2609-16 --07-0407-2004-2404-2005-0108-1407-1707-3008-2208-2709-0909-0408-2408-2409-1807-1904-1705-0605-2204-06 --09-1707-24 --07-18 --05-0105-0104-0807-2307-1904-0107-03 --07-2404-0907-1608-2707-27 -- --08-0708-01 -- -- --
Peak daily increment 483 45356 1991 7362 11282 95883 6738 8492 4291 10915 12483 4816 66974 101 14282 3552 9260 729 1012 190 208 11222 3329 240 1622 899 3999 967 587 680 2160 2171 1017 48 1627 1462 1273 1972 441 89 4272 286 1108 9495 1810 334 1624 1837 432 2139 1435 1071
Days from 100 to peak 145 141 51 83 146 188 135 155 147 52 120 27 134 118 180 104 132 40 30 39 142 124 136 149 156 168 173 156 153 179 125 37 48 59 21 180 125 121 34 38 24 120 120 22 106 126 23 117 149 131 141 146
Days from peak/2 to peak 140 113 43 64 107 134 113 134 131 34 75 19 118 122 139 92 114 35 27 40 142 108 125 147 144 162 162 151 148 173 118 29 41 65 15 173 117 112 29 42 16 118 113 12 98 124 16 108 144 122 132 140
Last total 26942 4558040 147583 447468 770435 5562663 248852 425481 700580 768895 290190 1105048 661936 304610 6856884 6891 145780 74678 214250 790096 65379 55882 14978 19187 683839 287589 11431 81000 37898 275677 112027 53627 61917 161266 125233 120568 5106 123621 90730 104862 93556 10429 194355 18244 41165 7947 199814 26322 76036 450473 145165 77833 30995 155693 138124 18869 178505 734778 52176 141022 82431 102498 14181 4944
Last daily increment 30 13411 1833 1194 5359 75083 4176 3341 2917 6030 3447 6090 725 1743 52070 70 818 646 233 3928 542 476 23 101 1683 879 56 606 410 1474 522 927 375 242 240 412 29 1500 922 1237 192 130 808 286 278 6 382 104 232 573 856 1096 194 826 416 173 816 21771 544 627 182 1271 119 73
Last week 164 175777 6683 9485 41845 542304 23822 18128 24093 35035 20783 35175 10415 9990 264542 509 18967 4776 5041 21892 3300 977 291 543 16549 9648 614 5298 2091 11525 4798 3638 3917 3142 2285 3323 188 4625 5532 8475 3033 1185 7468 2180 2355 200 2711 740 1996 4759 5680 6575 1333 4649 4654 1875 8701 42025 4702 5594 2249 11436 1195 506
Days since peak 50 48 141 107 39 5 52 31 42 135 67 160 64 57 5 79 63 150 154 143 38 66 53 30 25 12 17 28 28 3 64 157 138 122 168 4 59 65 143 143 166 60 64 173 80 59 165 67 25 56 45 51

Confirmed count forecast Europe (bold red line in graphs) 2020-09-22 to 2020-09-28

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
2020-09-21 398625 2526090 38658 103392 19014 14671 50764 275560 23323 671468 9046 473974 15595 14992 18866 33121 299506 95995 79988 69200 113589 88237 4470 6756 13005 50378
2020-09-22 402300 2579000 39350 104400 19120 14850 53110 276000 23820 674400 9092 474000 15910 15270 19520 33330 300300 98200 80180 69820 114200 88690 4559 6892 13120 50780
2020-09-23 406800 2635000 40050 105800 19270 15020 54940 277700 24300 685300 9135 480700 16320 15530 20010 33510 301800 100500 81310 70430 115400 88890 4650 7032 13220 51500
2020-09-24 410900 2687000 40750 107200 19420 15190 57380 279600 24780 696300 9179 490600 16800 15770 20600 33710 303300 102900 82430 71030 116700 89160 4742 7172 13320 52250
2020-09-25 415200 2738000 41430 108300 19590 15350 59570 281200 25250 709800 9220 501900 17210 15990 21460 33900 305000 105400 83660 71620 117900 89430 4834 7315 13420 52970
2020-09-26 419300 2787000 42130 109200 19690 15510 61760 282800 25730 710100 9261 501900 17670 16200 22260 34090 306400 107900 84910 72220 118900 89430 4925 7460 13520 53620
2020-09-27 423300 2834000 42830 110300 19710 15670 62980 283800 26210 710400 9302 502900 17970 16350 23070 34280 307900 110400 86200 72810 119800 89430 5016 7606 13620 54330
2020-09-28 426900 2880000 43530 111400 19830 15830 64820 285200 26690 740000 9344 529600 18430 16420 24090 34470 309000 113100 87570 73420 120500 89490 5107 7755 13720 54840

Confirmed count forecast (bold red line in graphs) 2020-09-22 to 2020-09-28

DateBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
2020-09-21 4558040 147583 447468 770435 5562663 248852 425481 700580 768895 290190 1105048 661936 304610 6856884 6891 145780 74678 214250 790096 65379 55882 14978 19187 683839 287589 11431 81000 37898 275677 112027 53627 61917 161266 125233 120568 123621 90730 104862 93556 10429 194355 18244 41165 7947 199814 26322 76036 450473 145165 77833 30995 155693 138124 18869 178505 734778 52176 141022 82431 102498 14181 4944
2020-09-22 4594000 148400 449600 777100 5628000 254200 428400 708000 771000 293500 1111000 663200 306200 6875000 6921 147000 74930 214700 795500 65760 55910 15020 19290 685900 289600 11560 81290 38250 276400 112900 53830 62440 162100 125400 121100 124200 92400 105900 94080 10520 195500 18810 41280 7978 200200 26350 76330 451200 146400 79270 31170 156500 139000 18910 180100 748200 52670 142000 82800 103700 14320 4944
2020-09-23 4627000 149100 450800 784800 5710000 259800 431300 711900 773800 296800 1117000 665000 307800 6910000 6977 148000 75680 215500 799600 66130 56060 15070 19380 687800 291300 11670 82050 38570 277800 113400 54490 63140 162800 125600 121700 125000 93900 107200 94640 10730 196600 19230 41720 8008 200600 26460 76630 451900 147400 80770 31320 157400 139800 19160 181400 759700 53230 142900 83170 105300 14520 5068
2020-09-24 4660000 149900 452500 792200 5790000 265600 434200 715100 777900 300000 1122000 666800 309300 6950000 7085 149100 76480 216700 804100 66490 56200 15110 19470 690700 293100 11830 82770 38890 279300 114200 54900 63800 163200 126000 122200 125900 95800 108700 95230 10990 197800 19790 42180 8038 200900 26620 76920 452600 148300 82250 31520 158200 140700 19510 182800 771200 53870 143800 83540 107300 14730 5166
2020-09-25 4697000 150600 454100 798500 5870000 271700 436900 719900 783400 303200 1128000 668500 310800 6994000 7186 150100 77250 217700 808400 66840 56340 15160 19570 694100 294700 11970 84140 39210 281000 115200 55740 64560 164000 126400 122700 126700 97900 110200 95770 11220 198900 20360 42560 8067 201300 26750 77200 453300 149300 83800 31770 158900 141600 19830 184100 782100 54590 144700 83910 109600 14940 5258
2020-09-26 4726000 151400 455900 805700 5950000 278100 439700 724800 788700 306500 1133000 670300 312400 7033000 7269 151000 78230 218400 812800 67190 56480 15200 19660 697100 296600 12050 84990 39520 282800 116200 56040 65390 164000 126900 123300 127300 99900 111700 96310 11490 200000 20960 42860 8097 201700 26880 77490 454000 150300 85360 32000 159700 142400 20140 185500 793100 55220 145600 84280 111300 15160 5298
2020-09-27 4737000 152100 457500 812000 6026000 284400 442600 728000 793700 309700 1139000 671700 313900 7065000 7352 152000 78760 219000 816200 67540 56620 15240 19750 699300 297400 12130 85520 39840 283800 117000 56180 65780 165000 127200 123800 127400 102100 113000 96520 11640 201200 21490 43110 8127 202000 26940 77780 454600 151000 86950 32200 160200 143300 20370 186800 804000 55850 146500 84650 112500 15330 5398
2020-09-28 4750000 152800 458700 816500 6099000 290600 445400 730800 799500 313000 1144000 672400 315400 7108000 7413 152900 79260 219200 819500 67890 56760 15290 19850 700600 298100 12190 86000 40150 285200 117500 57030 66080 165200 127400 124400 128600 103500 114100 96640 11820 202300 21880 43380 8157 202400 27010 78070 455300 151900 88550 32320 161000 144200 20550 188200 814900 56420 147400 85020 113500 15440 5495

Confirmed count average forecast Europe (bold black line in graphs) 2020-09-22 to 2020-09-28

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
2020-09-21 398625 2526090 38658 103392 19014 14671 50764 275560 23323 671468 9046 473974 15595 14992 18866 33121 299506 95995 79988 69200 113589 88237 4470 6756 13005 50378
2020-09-22 400900 2566000 39310 104400 19120 14820 52750 275900 23660 675200 9061 475200 15800 15140 19500 33250 299900 97900 80920 69770 114500 88610 4573 6891 13090 50580
2020-09-23 404300 2615000 40020 105700 19260 15050 55010 276700 24060 685100 9083 480100 16170 15360 20120 33450 300600 100200 82260 70380 115800 88730 4702 7077 13200 50840
2020-09-24 407600 2662000 40760 107000 19400 15270 57780 277700 24470 695900 9107 488900 16610 15570 20770 33650 301400 102400 83550 70980 117100 88900 4820 7274 13300 51100
2020-09-25 411300 2708000 41480 108300 19540 15420 60060 278500 24900 708400 9130 498600 17010 15760 21620 33850 302300 104800 84920 71580 118500 89070 4951 7485 13400 51380
2020-09-26 414700 2753000 42210 109400 19640 15610 62330 279200 25340 712800 9151 503000 17370 15990 22720 34050 303000 107200 86250 72180 119600 89070 5072 7699 13490 51650
2020-09-27 418200 2797000 42840 110700 19700 15820 64160 279600 25780 717200 9171 507400 17650 16190 23680 34260 303700 109500 87800 72790 120800 89070 5192 7900 13590 51920
2020-09-28 421300 2840000 43460 112000 19810 15980 66410 280100 26240 738100 9191 520300 18000 16330 24840 34470 304200 112000 89160 73390 121800 89080 5289 8105 13690 52170

Confirmed count average forecast (bold black line in graphs) 2020-09-22 to 2020-09-28

DateBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
2020-09-21 4558040 147583 447468 770435 5562663 248852 425481 700580 768895 290190 1105048 661936 304610 6856884 6891 145780 74678 214250 790096 65379 55882 14978 19187 683839 287589 11431 81000 37898 275677 112027 53627 61917 161266 125233 120568 123621 90730 104862 93556 10429 194355 18244 41165 7947 199814 26322 76036 450473 145165 77833 30995 155693 138124 18869 178505 734778 52176 141022 82431 102498 14181 4944
2020-09-22 4579000 147700 448700 775700 5646000 253500 426900 704800 773500 293200 1108000 662900 306100 6866000 6929 146600 75070 214500 791600 65490 55930 15010 19280 685700 289000 11480 81320 38100 276700 112700 53760 62420 161500 125300 121000 124100 91800 106000 93910 10530 195000 18540 41380 7976 200100 26380 76200 451100 145900 79240 31120 156500 138800 18930 179800 738300 52620 141800 82610 103500 14340 4993
2020-09-23 4614000 148100 450000 782300 5738000 259400 428900 708800 778400 296500 1111000 664500 307600 6897000 6993 147500 75800 215000 793300 65750 56020 15040 19380 687900 290700 11540 81930 38360 278500 113300 54270 63080 162100 125500 121500 124900 93200 107300 94370 10770 196000 18930 41760 8010 200500 26480 76450 451800 146700 80810 31290 157200 139400 19140 181200 741400 53280 142700 82860 104900 14530 5124
2020-09-24 4648000 148800 451600 788800 5829000 265200 430700 712500 783500 299700 1114000 666100 309200 6936000 7084 148300 76570 215800 795100 66110 56140 15080 19470 690400 292300 11630 82540 38650 280100 114100 54650 63710 162500 125700 122000 125700 94700 108700 94820 11040 197300 19430 42180 8043 200900 26610 76730 452500 147600 82400 31480 158000 140400 19430 182600 744300 53950 143600 83100 106800 14730 5228
2020-09-25 4687000 149500 453300 795300 5920000 271200 432500 717000 789000 303000 1116000 667700 310700 6981000 7175 149200 77360 216500 797000 66510 56280 15120 19570 692900 293900 11740 83500 38940 281900 115000 55280 64390 163200 125900 122500 126500 96300 110200 95270 11290 198500 19960 42560 8076 201300 26710 77030 453200 148500 84110 31700 158800 141500 19700 184000 747000 54690 144400 83340 109300 14920 5340
2020-09-26 4717000 150000 455000 801900 6014000 277700 434200 722100 794400 306200 1119000 669300 312300 7019000 7258 150200 78210 217000 799000 66930 56420 15150 19670 695400 295700 11810 84180 39230 283800 115900 55640 65110 163300 126200 123100 127100 98000 111700 95710 11550 199800 20480 42870 8110 201700 26830 77310 453900 149400 85840 31910 159600 142300 20090 185400 749700 55360 145300 83630 110900 15120 5385
2020-09-27 4728000 150600 456800 808500 6104000 284200 436000 726300 799900 309500 1122000 670800 313900 7047000 7334 151100 78780 217500 800600 67270 56560 15190 19760 697800 296800 11880 84700 39520 285200 116800 55920 65650 164300 126300 123500 127400 99800 113000 96090 11720 200800 20970 43130 8143 202000 26910 77610 454600 150100 87410 32090 160200 143400 20280 186800 753300 56000 146100 83840 112400 15320 5457
2020-09-28 4742000 151300 458400 814900 6192000 290400 437700 730000 805400 312900 1124000 671900 315400 7076000 7405 152000 79310 217800 802300 67520 56700 15220 19860 700000 297800 11930 85140 39780 286800 117600 56530 66120 164700 126400 124000 128400 101200 114300 96460 11880 201600 21390 43440 8177 202400 26970 77850 455300 150800 89070 32220 161000 144200 20420 188100 757000 56660 147000 84030 113600 15500 5527

Confirmed count scenario forecast (bold purple line in graphs) 2020-09-22 to 2020-09-30

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCHBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
2020-09-21 398625 2526090 38658 103392 19014 14671 50764 275560 23323 671468 9046 473974 15595 14992 18866 33121 299506 95995 79988 69200 113589 88237 4470 6756 13005 50378 4558040 147583 447468 770435 5562663 248852 425481 700580 768895 290190 1105048 661936 304610 6856884 6891 145780 74678 214250 790096 65379 55882 14978 19187 683839 287589 11431 81000 37898 275677 112027 53627 61917 161266 125233 120568 123621 90730 104862 93556 10429 194355 18244 41165 7947 199814 26322 76036 450473 145165 77833 30995 155693 138124 18869 178505 734778 52176 141022 82431 102498 14181 4944
2020-09-22 402900 2564000 39670 105900 19120 14910 53360 276500 24110 681100 9086 474000 15850 15200 19960 33210 300500 97900 81350 69860 115900 88620 4625 6980 13100 50380 4591000 147700 449500 774600 5676000 254100 432800 704700 773800 292400 1110000 663400 307200 6870000 6944 149200 76150 214900 792500 65800 55910 15050 19270 686000 289200 11500 81280 38170 277400 112900 54360 62980 162000 125600 121300 124200 92210 106800 94020 10680 195300 18670 41620 7996 200200 26400 76260 451200 146200 79190 31110 156500 139000 19010 179800 744700 53210 141800 82770 105200 14470 5039
2020-09-23 407400 2594000 40390 107200 19210 15000 54870 277600 24520 688400 9135 478600 16090 15350 20960 33310 301900 99400 81890 70530 117000 88780 4750 7139 13190 50500 4617000 148600 451100 778900 5780000 259000 434700 707800 777600 294800 1117000 664600 308300 6903000 7000 153300 76740 215800 795600 66340 56100 15100 19350 687800 290300 11570 81740 38470 279000 113700 54790 63590 162300 126000 122000 124900 92790 108500 94340 10850 196000 18990 42000 8032 200700 26470 76480 452000 147100 79820 31250 157400 139500 19160 180900 748100 53880 142500 83040 106800 14710 5087
2020-09-24 411700 2641000 41170 108200 19280 15200 56760 278400 25580 700700 9195 482600 16320 15490 21810 33370 303300 101200 82870 71240 118400 88980 4860 7351 13270 50790 4637000 149700 452700 782500 5883000 263100 438900 710300 781700 297100 1123000 665900 309300 6936000 7052 155000 77760 216300 798200 66900 56190 15150 19430 689600 291200 11630 82220 38800 280600 114300 55410 64400 162700 126400 122800 125500 93710 109600 94620 11100 196900 19320 42300 8070 201200 26530 76710 452700 147900 80860 31390 158200 140000 19330 181900 750000 54780 143000 83340 109400 14920 5174
2020-09-25 416200 2680000 42060 109100 19350 15250 58430 279500 26010 708500 9256 487600 16730 15610 22720 33500 304400 102500 83210 71720 119500 89190 4954 7481 13350 50910 4660000 150700 454200 786000 5976000 265800 440100 712900 785300 299100 1129000 666700 310300 6959000 7098 156300 78270 217100 800500 67450 56290 15200 19500 691100 292300 11690 82530 39090 282200 115000 55610 64780 163000 126900 123300 126100 94220 111400 94910 11210 197300 19740 42740 8093 201600 26600 76880 453300 148700 81750 31460 159000 140400 19470 182900 754100 55100 143600 83560 110900 15100 5240
2020-09-26 419900 2721000 43070 109100 19410 15340 60130 280800 26560 724100 9322 489900 17090 15730 23560 33620 305700 104900 83630 72210 121300 89330 5033 7651 13430 50970 4679000 151700 455600 789700 6095000 270000 442800 715100 788800 301000 1136000 667500 311400 6983000 7135 156900 79240 217500 802700 68080 56470 15250 19560 692000 293000 11740 82810 39390 283100 115500 56220 65420 163300 127100 123900 126700 95010 113100 95160 11360 197900 20090 43090 8123 202000 26640 77050 453900 149200 82680 31570 159600 140700 19610 183700 759600 55490 144100 83770 113200 15320 5322
2020-09-27 423300 2746000 43800 109100 19470 15340 61650 281900 27160 730200 9378 492000 17380 15850 24330 33810 306800 107100 83630 72740 122200 89470 5194 7797 13500 51250 4696000 153000 456700 791300 6188000 273300 442800 717600 791900 302700 1142000 668300 312000 6999000 7169 157100 79960 217900 804500 68670 56610 15290 19620 693000 293600 11800 83400 39670 284600 116100 56660 65760 163400 127300 124500 127100 95080 115500 95300 11580 198200 20440 43460 8151 202400 26680 77160 454400 149500 83000 31630 160200 141000 19740 184300 762800 55670 144500 84030 115400 15570 5417
2020-09-28 426700 2792000 44690 109900 19510 15350 63300 283200 27740 744900 9428 495500 17640 15950 25140 34010 308100 109200 83980 73640 124100 89560 5324 7919 13570 51360 4717000 154300 457900 794000 6285000 277600 442800 718900 794400 304500 1149000 668900 312400 7016000 7200 157800 80860 218200 806300 69260 56640 15330 19690 693600 294100 11850 83760 40040 285800 116700 56930 66140 163600 127600 125100 127600 95180 117100 95420 11730 198400 20790 43740 8170 202800 26710 77280 454900 149800 84000 31660 160900 141200 19870 185000 762800 55990 145000 84230 116900 15820 5509
2020-09-29 429800 2829000 45490 110100 19540 15350 64290 284400 28170 755400 9468 499000 17910 16050 25870 34090 309500 110700 83980 74410 125000 89640 5460 8066 13630 51620 4729000 155100 459200 795900 6383000 281800 442800 720100 796800 306300 1156000 669400 312700 7022000 7240 157800 81040 218400 807600 69860 56650 15380 19740 694100 294700 11880 84040 40440 287100 117200 57120 66370 163600 127800 125500 128000 95180 118800 95550 11890 198500 21120 44140 8181 203100 26730 77380 455500 150100 84570 31710 161500 141300 20000 185500 762800 56090 145400 84420 118600 16040 5580
2020-09-30 432500 2856000 46120 110200 19560 15350 65350 285800 28470 764400 9507 502400 18130 16120 26570 34140 311100 112000 83980 75070 125700 89740 5550 8169 13690 51850 4744000 156100 460600 797600 6460000 286100 442800 720900 799100 307400 1162000 669600 313200 7024000 7258 158100 81640 218600 808600 70350 56720 15420 19790 694600 294900 11920 84250 40600 288100 117700 57150 66600 163700 127900 126000 128400 95180 120000 95650 12000 198500 21460 44170 8181 203500 26750 77430 455900 150400 84620 31750 162000 141300 20090 186000 762800 56120 145700 84660 119700 16300 5672

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.
[2020-06-24] Research presentation on short-term COVID-19 forecasting on 26 June (14:00 UK time) at the Quarterly Forecasting Forum of the IIF UK Chapter.
[2020-06-06] Removed Brazil from yesterday's forecasts (only; last observation 2020-06-05).
[2020-06-04] Data issues with confirmed cases for France.
Added an appendix to the short term paper with further forecast comparisons for European and Latin American countries.
Both Sweden and Iran have lost their peak in confirmed cases. For Sweden the previous peak was on 24 April (daily peak of 656 cases), for Iran it was on 31 March (peak of 3116). For Iran this looks like a second wave, with increasing daily counts for the last four weeks. For Sweden this is a sudden jump in confirmed cases in the last two days, compared to a fairly steady weekly pattern over the previous six weeks.
[2020-05-20] Problem with UK confirmed cases: negative daily count. This makes the forecasts temporarily unreliable.
Updated the second paper.
[2020-05-18] Minor fixes to the improved version of scenario forecasting, backported to 2020-05-13.
[2020-05-13] We now omit countries with fewer than 200 confirmed cases in the last week (25 for deaths).
The short-term paper has some small updates, including further comparisons with other models.
Data for Ecuador are not reliable enough for forecasting.
Switched to an improved version of scenario forecasting.
[2020-05-06] The New York Times is in the process of redefining its US state data. Unfortunately, at the moment only the last observation has changed (e.g New York deaths jumped from 19645 on 2020-05-05 to 25956 a day later). This means the data is currently useless; however it does bring it close to the Johns Hopkins/CSSE count (25626 on 2020-05-06). The aggregate US count is based on JH/CSSE so unaffected. We now use Johns Hopkins/CSSE US state data, including all states with sufficient counts. So the new forecasts cannot be compared to those previously.
A minor change is that we show the graph without scenario forecast if no peak has been detected yet.
[2020-04-29] See our blog entry at the International Institute of Forecasters.
US history of death counts revised in Johns Hopkins/CSSE data.
UK death counts have been revised to include the deaths in care homes. In the Johns Hopkins/CSSE data set, which we use, the entire history has been revised. So forecasts made up to 2020-04-29 cannot be compared to later outcomes. In the ECDC data set only the last observation has changed, causing a jump in the series.
[2020-04-27] Our short-term COVID-19 forecasting paper is now available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06.
A small adjustment has been made to the scenario forecast methodology, and will be documented shortly.
[2020-04-24] A summary of our work on short-term COVID-19 forecasting appeared as a voxeu.
[2020-04-17] Bird and Nielsen look into nowcasting death counts in England.
[2020-04-16] Added scenario forecasts to all graphs now. This would now be the preferred forecast for most.
This is the first time with a peak in confirmed UK cases (also for deaths, but this is uncertain because it is at the same date).
[2020-04-10] Updated documentation with better description of short-term estimates and peak determination.
[2020-04-09] Added table with estimated peak dates (if happened) and dates to and since the peak. Note that this can be a local peak, and subsequent re-acceleration (or data revisions) can result in a new peak later.
[2020-04-08] Minor correction to peak estimates. Added table with scenario forecasts.
[2020-04-06] Added a post hoc estimate of the peak number of cases. This needs at least three confirmed observations (four for deaths) after the event. It is based on the averaged smooth trend, and can change later or be a local peak. It is marked with a vertical line with the date label, or a date with left arrow in the bottom left corner of the graph. This is backported to 2020-04-04.
[2020-04-02] Now including more US States, based on New York Times data.
[2020-03-31] Scenario forecasts, based on what happened in China earlier this year, are presented for several countries (line marked with x). Created more plausible 90% confidence bands (dotted line in same colour).
[2020-03-26] Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, only for Italy.
[2020-03-24] Our forecasts are starting to overestimate in some cases. This was always expected to happen when the increase starts to slow down. Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, but only for Italy and Spain sofar.

Initial visual evaluation of forecasts of Confirmed