COVID-19 short-term forecasts

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in Europe 2020-09-24

	UK	EU	AT	BE	BG	BS	CZ	DE	DK	ES	FI	FR	GR	HR	HU	IE	IT	NL	PL	PT	RO	SE	SI	SK	NO	CH
Peak date	--	--	--	--	07-24	09-21	--	03-27	09-17	--	04-04	--	--	08-26	09-21	04-10	03-24	--	--	04-10	--	06-19	--	--	03-26	03-27
Peak daily increment					238	313		5662	733		146			277	1001	1117	5643			830		1075			240	1137
Days from 100 to peak					126	192		25	192		22			160	184	27	30			28		105			19	22
Days from peak/2 to peak					125	190		14	189		22			158	173	21	20			23		99			18	17
Last total	416363	2650207	40816	108768	19573	15304	58374	281346	24916	704209	9379	511757	16627	15572	21200	33994	304323	103141	82809	71156	118054	90289	4816	7629	13406	51492
Last daily increment	6634	58113	832	1881	290	249	2910	2321	559	10653	91	27801	341	232	750	319	1786	2544	1136	691	1639	533	122	360	129	391
Last week	30427	226117	4155	9119	840	1207	12112	10099	3069	64169	521	66779	1889	1059	5089	1723	9391	13094	5481	3980	7837	2052	621	1373	637	2209
Days since peak					62	3		181	7		173			29	3	167	184			167		97			182	181

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed 2020-09-24

	Australia	Brazil	Canada	Chile	Colombia	India	Indonesia	Iran	Mexico	Peru	Philippines	Russia	South Africa	Turkey	US	US-AK	US-AL	US-AR	US-AZ	US-CA	US-CO	US-CT	US-DC	US-DE	US-FL	US-GA	US-HI	US-IA	US-ID	US-IL	US-IN	US-KS	US-KY	US-LA	US-MA	US-MD	US-ME	US-MI	US-MN	US-MO	US-MS	US-MT	US-NC	US-ND	US-NE	US-NH	US-NJ	US-NM	US-NV	US-NY	US-OH	US-OK	US-OR	US-PA	US-SC	US-SD	US-TN	US-TX	US-UT	US-VA	US-WA	US-WI	US-WV	US-WY
Peak date	08-02	08-04	05-03	06-06	08-13	09-16	--	--	07-31	08-02	08-10	05-09	07-16	04-14	07-19	07-27	09-16	--	07-04	07-20	--	04-20	05-01	08-14	07-17	07-30	08-27	08-27	09-09	09-04	08-24	08-24	--	07-19	04-17	05-06	05-22	04-06	09-21	09-17	07-24	--	07-18	--	05-01	05-01	04-08	07-23	07-19	04-01	07-03	--	07-24	04-09	07-16	08-27	07-27	--	--	08-07	08-01	--	09-19	--
Peak daily increment	483	45355	1991	7363	11282	93281			6738	8364	4291	10920	12483	4816	66989	99	12877		3552	9258		1012	190	208	11222	3329	245	1624	937	4122	990	610		2160	2171	1017	48	1627	862	1409	1273		1972		441	89	4272	286	1108	9495	1810		334	1624	1837	467	2139			1435	1071		196
Days from 100 to peak	145	141	51	83	146	188			134	136	147	52	120	27	135	119	180		104	132		30	39	142	124	136	154	157	168	173	156	153		125	37	48	60	21	185	180	125		121		34	38	24	120	120	22	106		126	23	117	149	131			141	146		174
Days from peak/2 to peak	140	113	43	64	107	134			113	115	131	34	75	19	118	123	142		92	114		27	40	142	108	125	152	144	162	161	151	148		118	29	41	65	15	177	173	117		112		29	42	16	118	113	12	98		124	16	108	144	122			132	140		174
Last total	27000	4657702	151087	451634	790823	5732518	262022	436319	715457	782695	296755	1123976	667049	309790	6977658	7115	148206	77271	215849	799516	67196	56342	15106	19459	691395	292099	11749	83987	39233	281312	114236	55292	64158	163028	126418	121800	5214	126353	92862	108652	95310	11242	198187	19451	42465	8042	201207	26850	77197	452847	147744	81193	31865	158181	142707	20097	181808	747366	54573	143357	83946	108324	14719	5305
Last daily increment	20	66338	1148	1731	6555	86508	4634	3521	5408	6149	2164	6489	1861	1721	44110	128	1053	932	565	3080	547	162	56	111	2519	1565	88	1120	493	2249	899	446	643	576	473	503	44	1102	980	1270	737	330	1687	470	433	38	565	236	390	955	991	1086	362	845	1021	463	882	4453	1058	898	536	2392	204	136
Last week	115	162519	7034	8807	40352	424504	25503	20121	26503	32597	17229	37021	9422	9980	253725	472	5343	4810	2911	20025	3466	936	254	570	15310	8394	560	5163	2277	11039	4553	3167	4030	2935	2325	2738	212	4795	5220	7636	2878	1371	7214	2221	2270	183	2673	843	2101	4795	5148	6677	1523	4659	6389	2022	6967	42803	4682	4752	2633	11045	1034	559
Days since peak	53	51	144	110	42	8			55	53	45	138	70	163	67	59	8		82	66		157	146	41	69	56	28	28	15	20	31	31		67	160	141	125	171	3	7	62		68		146	146	169	63	67	176	83		62	168	70	28	59			48	54		5

Confirmed count forecast Europe (bold red line in graphs) 2020-09-25 to 2020-10-01

Date	UK	EU	AT	BE	BG	BS	CZ	DE	DK	ES	FI	FR	GR	HR	HU	IE	IT	NL	PL	PT	RO	SE	SI	SK	NO	CH
2020-09-24	416363	2650207	40816	108768	19573	15304	58374	281346	24916	704209	9379	511757	16627	15572	21200	33994	304323	103141	82809	71156	118054	90289	4816	7629	13406	51492
2020-09-25	425000	2714000	42340	111100	19680	15470	62640	282400	25480	715200	9440	522500	16950	15910	21970	34120	305500	107300	82810	71790	120100	90290	5030	7903	13490	51800
2020-09-26	433800	2783000	43490	113500	19780	15610	65390	283900	26040	715700	9496	538300	17260	16100	22850	34250	307100	110200	84050	72400	122300	90290	5170	8171	13590	52090
2020-09-27	442800	2853000	44200	115900	19810	15760	66940	284900	26600	715900	9552	554200	17520	16260	23800	34390	308600	113100	85560	73020	124400	90320	5296	8441	13690	52390
2020-09-28	452200	2927000	44960	118400	19940	15900	68260	286400	27160	745400	9604	570800	17890	16320	24580	34530	309700	116200	87070	73620	126600	90420	5351	8711	13790	52670
2020-09-29	461800	3003000	45720	121000	20070	16040	71030	288100	27720	754600	9656	587800	18280	16460	25250	34660	311000	118700	88480	74220	128900	91350	5460	8990	13880	52950
2020-09-30	471600	3080000	46460	123600	20220	16170	73810	289700	28290	765700	9708	605300	18670	16660	26140	34800	312500	121500	90220	74830	131200	91660	5603	9279	13980	53230
2020-10-01	481600	3159000	47300	126300	20460	16310	77520	291800	28860	775800	9760	623300	19070	16890	26970	34940	314100	124700	92090	75440	133600	92010	5755	9577	14080	53510

Confirmed count forecast (bold red line in graphs) 2020-09-25 to 2020-10-01

Date	Brazil	Canada	Chile	Colombia	India	Indonesia	Iran	Mexico	Peru	Philippines	Russia	South Africa	Turkey	US	US-AK	US-AL	US-AR	US-AZ	US-CA	US-CO	US-CT	US-DC	US-DE	US-FL	US-GA	US-HI	US-IA	US-ID	US-IL	US-IN	US-KS	US-KY	US-LA	US-MA	US-MD	US-ME	US-MI	US-MN	US-MO	US-MS	US-MT	US-NC	US-ND	US-NE	US-NJ	US-NM	US-NV	US-NY	US-OH	US-OK	US-OR	US-PA	US-SC	US-SD	US-TN	US-TX	US-UT	US-VA	US-WA	US-WI	US-WV	US-WY
2020-09-24	4657702	151087	451634	790823	5732518	262022	436319	715457	782695	296755	1123976	667049	309790	6977658	7115	148206	77271	215849	799516	67196	56342	15106	19459	691395	292099	11749	83987	39233	281312	114236	55292	64158	163028	126418	121800	5214	126353	92862	108652	95310	11242	198187	19451	42465	201207	26850	77197	452847	147744	81193	31865	158181	142707	20097	181808	747366	54573	143357	83946	108324	14719	5305
2020-09-25	4698000	152000	453100	801600	5804000	266000	443200	721100	789500	299800	1130000	668900	311400	7009000	7188	149200	78420	216600	804000	68060	56490	15150	19550	694400	294500	11890	84610	39440	282900	115400	55930	64760	164100	126400	122300	5242	127100	93590	110200	95890	11460	199600	19750	42720	201600	26970	77510	453600	149200	83160	31930	159000	143600	20140	184200	750900	56110	144800	84320	112900	14940	5417
2020-09-26	4727000	152900	454800	809700	5866000	270400	450400	725800	795300	302900	1136000	670700	313000	7051000	7277	150300	79600	217200	807500	68840	56630	15190	19640	697600	296200	12000	85530	39750	285200	116400	56250	65640	164100	126900	122800	5268	127700	94290	111700	96410	11850	200800	20180	43090	202000	27080	77800	454300	150100	85200	32190	159800	144500	20510	185200	754700	57440	145700	84680	116300	15180	5474
2020-09-27	4739000	153700	456300	816900	5925000	274700	457700	729200	801300	305900	1142000	672100	314600	7085000	7356	151300	80780	217600	810100	69580	56780	15230	19740	699900	297100	12080	86140	39990	286600	117200	56430	66060	165000	127100	123300	5296	127800	94970	113000	96660	12090	201800	20540	43320	202400	27190	78090	455000	150700	86830	32390	160300	145500	20750	186700	759200	58640	146500	85040	119200	15330	5589
2020-09-28	4753000	154600	457500	822300	5977000	278900	465400	731900	807200	308900	1147000	672700	316100	7127000	7416	152300	82010	217800	812900	70300	56920	15280	19820	701300	297800	12140	86670	40310	288000	117700	57270	66350	165200	127300	123800	5322	129100	95640	114100	96780	12340	202600	20880	43600	202800	27300	78380	455700	151500	88620	32530	161100	146400	20930	187700	763200	59620	147100	85400	121500	15450	5668
2020-09-29	4786000	155400	458600	829500	6008000	283000	473200	736500	807600	312000	1153000	673800	317600	7163000	7455	153300	83270	218300	815700	71020	57070	15320	19910	703600	299000	12220	87320	40660	289300	118200	57660	67050	165800	127400	124300	5349	129700	96300	115100	97180	12710	203700	21120	43950	203200	27400	78660	456400	152300	90620	32820	161800	147300	21180	188500	769400	60530	147900	85760	124300	15630	5754
2020-09-30	4794000	156200	459800	837300	6068000	287500	481200	740600	813200	315000	1159000	675500	319200	7198000	7508	154300	84540	218800	818700	71740	57210	15360	20010	705800	300700	12360	88350	41030	291000	118700	58380	67780	166300	127800	124800	5376	130600	96980	116500	97720	13040	204500	21540	44400	203500	27510	78950	457100	153100	92530	32990	162600	148200	21560	189900	772200	61580	148500	86120	127000	15770	5921
2020-10-01	4844000	157100	461300	843500	6150000	291800	489300	745100	818700	318100	1165000	677300	320800	7238000	7627	155300	85820	219500	821600	72470	57360	15400	20100	708300	302200	12450	89200	41440	293000	119600	58780	68410	166800	128200	125300	5404	131600	97650	117800	98400	13450	206000	22150	44810	203900	27610	79230	457800	154000	94260	33280	163400	149200	21950	191000	776300	62800	149400	86480	130100	15970	6053

Confirmed count average forecast Europe (bold black line in graphs) 2020-09-25 to 2020-10-01

Date	UK	EU	AT	BE	BG	BS	CZ	DE	DK	ES	FI	FR	GR	HR	HU	IE	IT	NL	PL	PT	RO	SE	SI	SK	NO	CH
2020-09-24	416363	2650207	40816	108768	19573	15304	58374	281346	24916	704209	9379	511757	16627	15572	21200	33994	304323	103141	82809	71156	118054	90289	4816	7629	13406	51492
2020-09-25	423800	2699000	41790	110600	19620	15400	61000	281800	25320	713300	9396	523100	17010	15720	22170	34150	304900	105900	83730	71710	120100	90350	4928	7738	13460	51780
2020-09-26	432000	2736000	42850	112700	19710	15600	63770	282600	25830	717500	9419	532400	17380	15900	23200	34350	305700	108700	85120	72330	122300	90410	5051	7930	13550	52110
2020-09-27	440300	2771000	43700	115000	19760	15790	65390	283200	26350	721600	9445	541600	17670	16060	24280	34570	306500	111400	86560	72960	124500	90470	5171	8133	13640	52440
2020-09-28	448700	2844000	44550	117500	19870	15880	67100	284000	26870	744600	9469	566500	18100	16160	25280	34780	307000	114200	88030	73580	126500	90560	5265	8343	13740	52730
2020-09-29	457400	2895000	45550	119800	19990	16030	69650	284700	27390	753900	9493	581000	18490	16330	26110	35000	307600	116800	89340	74200	128600	90780	5391	8567	13830	52990
2020-09-30	466400	2938000	46670	122200	20130	16210	72750	285300	27930	764200	9521	595200	18890	16540	27230	35220	308200	119700	90870	74830	131200	90950	5524	8823	13930	53290
2020-10-01	475400	2988000	47820	124700	20280	16430	76930	286200	28480	775000	9548	612500	19370	16760	28320	35460	308900	122900	92240	75460	133800	91130	5668	9077	14030	53590

Confirmed count average forecast (bold black line in graphs) 2020-09-25 to 2020-10-01

Date	Brazil	Canada	Chile	Colombia	India	Indonesia	Iran	Mexico	Peru	Philippines	Russia	South Africa	Turkey	US	US-AK	US-AL	US-AR	US-AZ	US-CA	US-CO	US-CT	US-DC	US-DE	US-FL	US-GA	US-HI	US-IA	US-ID	US-IL	US-IN	US-KS	US-KY	US-LA	US-MA	US-MD	US-ME	US-MI	US-MN	US-MO	US-MS	US-MT	US-NC	US-ND	US-NE	US-NJ	US-NM	US-NV	US-NY	US-OH	US-OK	US-OR	US-PA	US-SC	US-SD	US-TN	US-TX	US-UT	US-VA	US-WA	US-WI	US-WV	US-WY
2020-09-24	4657702	151087	451634	790823	5732518	262022	436319	715457	782695	296755	1123976	667049	309790	6977658	7115	148206	77271	215849	799516	67196	56342	15106	19459	691395	292099	11749	83987	39233	281312	114236	55292	64158	163028	126418	121800	5214	126353	92862	108652	95310	11242	198187	19451	42465	201207	26850	77197	452847	147744	81193	31865	158181	142707	20097	181808	747366	54573	143357	83946	108324	14719	5305
2020-09-25	4682000	151700	452900	797800	5782000	264900	441600	718800	786600	299400	1127000	668300	311200	7005000	7176	148900	78370	216500	801100	67390	56450	15140	19550	693500	293500	11820	84290	39380	282700	115000	55690	64660	163700	126500	122300	5228	126900	93210	110100	95650	11320	199000	19820	42700	201500	26880	77310	453400	148500	82670	31930	158900	143400	20150	183300	750700	55550	144200	84050	111100	14910	5377
2020-09-26	4710000	152400	454600	805100	5845000	268900	448300	723200	791800	302600	1130000	669900	312700	7045000	7257	150000	79620	217100	802800	67760	56600	15170	19640	696000	295200	11880	85020	39700	284700	115900	56030	65390	163700	126800	122800	5251	127600	93990	111500	96100	11630	200200	20340	43060	201900	26960	77550	454100	149400	84390	32120	159600	144100	20380	184400	755900	56680	145000	84290	113700	15120	5423
2020-09-27	4720000	153200	456100	812300	5907000	272900	455200	726800	797200	305700	1133000	671300	314300	7076000	7335	150900	80880	217500	804200	68160	56750	15220	19740	698300	296200	11930	85660	40020	286200	116600	56330	65910	164600	127000	123200	5277	127800	94830	112800	96450	11830	201300	20810	43370	202300	27030	77860	454800	149900	85990	32320	160300	144900	20610	185800	761700	57820	145800	84520	116200	15290	5528
2020-09-28	4734000	154000	457300	819000	5962000	276800	462400	729800	802700	308800	1136000	672300	315800	7117000	7404	151700	82180	217800	805800	68570	56900	15240	19830	700400	297000	11980	86260	40350	287700	117200	56980	66370	164800	127200	123600	5301	128900	95560	114100	96730	12030	202100	21210	43700	202700	27100	78120	455500	150600	87690	32490	161000	145700	20780	187000	767700	58930	146500	84720	118400	15450	5612
2020-09-29	4760000	154700	458600	826200	6026000	280700	469800	734300	805700	312000	1139000	673500	317400	7148000	7461	152500	83490	218300	807500	69010	57050	15270	19930	702600	298300	12040	86890	40690	289100	117800	57390	67010	165300	127300	124000	5325	129500	96130	115300	97160	12280	203000	21590	44050	203100	27190	78360	456200	151200	89460	32720	161800	147000	20980	188100	773800	59910	147300	84940	120300	15630	5703
2020-09-30	4781000	155500	459800	833800	6094000	284900	477300	738700	811000	315200	1142000	675100	319000	7176000	7527	153900	84830	218900	808800	69420	57200	15300	20020	704900	300100	12130	87670	41030	290800	118500	57960	67670	165900	127500	124400	5348	130300	96720	116600	97680	12500	203900	22060	44430	203400	27300	78640	456900	152000	91210	32900	162600	147700	21210	189500	778300	61030	148000	85160	122400	15800	5855
2020-10-01	4821000	156300	461400	841100	6176000	289000	484700	742500	816200	318400	1145000	676700	320600	7210000	7620	154700	86180	219700	810600	69830	57350	15340	20120	707400	301700	12210	88320	41380	292500	119300	58380	68290	166300	127700	124900	5372	131100	97390	118000	98220	12800	205200	22610	44830	203900	27430	78930	457600	152900	92970	33100	163400	148600	21490	190900	783100	62260	148800	85390	125000	16010	5969

Confirmed count scenario forecast (bold purple line in graphs) 2020-09-25 to 2020-10-03

Date	UK	EU	AT	BE	BG	BS	CZ	DE	DK	ES	FI	FR	GR	HR	HU	IE	IT	NL	PL	PT	RO	SE	SI	SK	NO	CH	Brazil	Canada	Chile	Colombia	India	Indonesia	Iran	Mexico	Peru	Philippines	Russia	South Africa	Turkey	US	US-AK	US-AL	US-AR	US-AZ	US-CA	US-CO	US-CT	US-DC	US-DE	US-FL	US-GA	US-HI	US-IA	US-ID	US-IL	US-IN	US-KS	US-KY	US-LA	US-MA	US-MD	US-ME	US-MI	US-MN	US-MO	US-MS	US-MT	US-NC	US-ND	US-NE	US-NJ	US-NM	US-NV	US-NY	US-OH	US-OK	US-OR	US-PA	US-SC	US-SD	US-TN	US-TX	US-UT	US-VA	US-WA	US-WI	US-WV	US-WY
2020-09-24	416363	2650207	40816	108768	19573	15304	58374	281346	24916	704209	9379	511757	16627	15572	21200	33994	304323	103141	82809	71156	118054	90289	4816	7629	13406	51492	4657702	151087	451634	790823	5732518	262022	436319	715457	782695	296755	1123976	667049	309790	6977658	7115	148206	77271	215849	799516	67196	56342	15106	19459	691395	292099	11749	83987	39233	281312	114236	55292	64158	163028	126418	121800	5214	126353	92862	108652	95310	11242	198187	19451	42465	201207	26850	77197	452847	147744	81193	31865	158181	142707	20097	181808	747366	54573	143357	83946	108324	14719	5305
2020-09-25	422500	2684000	41810	110800	19570	15500	60730	281800	25520	714800	9426	521100	16950	15720	22220	34350	305500	105600	83490	72390	119900	90380	4960	7750	13480	51690	4670000	151500	453000	795700	5807000	266300	442200	718400	786200	299200	1130000	668100	310900	6991000	7157	153000	78490	216200	802600	67990	56550	15160	19540	692900	293100	11780	84160	39460	282800	115000	55720	65120	163500	126700	122600	5232	126900	94060	110300	95610	11390	198700	19860	42860	201500	26850	77280	453400	148700	82540	31890	159000	143400	20100	183200	756900	55600	144200	84090	110600	14990	5360
2020-09-26	426200	2728000	42720	112800	19670	15610	63030	283000	26050	723100	9474	533400	17300	15850	23110	34700	306900	108200	84360	73150	121100	90690	5143	7956	13570	51980	4685000	152100	454500	800800	5876000	271100	447700	721900	789100	301100	1138000	669100	312000	7017000	7208	155100	79790	216600	805500	68740	56690	15210	19610	694400	294100	11850	84970	39690	284200	115600	56100	65730	163900	127100	123100	5260	127700	94930	111700	95880	11600	199500	20260	43300	201900	26900	77460	454100	149500	83920	32080	159800	144200	20280	184200	759300	56730	144900	84360	113400	15240	5462
2020-09-27	430900	2767000	43540	114600	19750	15860	64730	284300	26600	734000	9536	543500	17590	16000	23940	35080	308000	110000	84480	74200	122700	90930	5204	8131	13640	52230	4700000	152900	455900	805300	5931000	274200	455000	724600	791700	303300	1147000	670200	313400	7038000	7255	157100	80770	216800	807800	69530	56920	15260	19690	695700	295100	11910	85620	39950	285700	116300	56500	66650	164200	127500	123500	5284	128400	96440	113200	96070	11810	199900	20640	43700	202300	26960	77650	454800	150200	85020	32230	160500	144900	20520	184900	770100	57790	145500	84610	115000	15440	5561
2020-09-28	436400	2806000	44340	116100	19800	16050	66660	285600	27040	744700	9623	555100	17900	16110	24750	35580	309000	112300	85550	75540	123700	91170	5314	8298	13710	52550	4712000	153700	457200	808600	6008000	278900	459200	727200	794000	304800	1152000	671000	314600	7056000	7302	159200	82110	216800	810000	69960	57160	15300	19750	697000	296100	11960	86350	40220	287400	116900	56920	67410	164400	127700	124000	5312	129100	97210	115100	96260	11970	200300	21010	44100	202700	27020	77780	455400	150900	86330	32310	161100	145500	20760	185600	773900	58780	146200	84840	116900	15700	5641
2020-09-29	442900	2868000	45530	118400	19850	16150	68440	286700	27680	757500	9682	565600	18300	16210	25710	36050	310000	115200	85770	76390	124500	91420	5445	8494	13770	52710	4722000	154300	458600	812200	6062000	283300	466300	730300	796100	306400	1158000	671900	317000	7075000	7335	161900	83650	216800	811300	70400	57290	15350	19810	697600	296900	12000	86820	40550	288500	117400	57230	67920	164700	127900	124400	5341	129700	97250	116500	96520	12270	200800	21420	44520	203000	27080	77900	455900	151600	87820	32370	161800	146000	20970	186300	773900	60160	146600	85060	119700	16000	5787
2020-09-30	446100	2922000	46240	120700	19900	16330	70010	288100	28100	772100	9735	573700	18540	16300	26490	36490	311000	117000	85770	76940	126200	91590	5542	8638	13840	53040	4737000	154700	459800	815200	6119000	286700	469300	732600	797700	308000	1164000	672400	318400	7088000	7354	164100	84620	216900	813300	70730	57400	15400	19860	698200	297400	12030	87470	40670	289900	117900	57540	68700	164900	128100	124800	5368	130200	97600	118000	96750	12480	200900	21770	44890	203300	27120	78020	456400	152000	89740	32480	162300	146100	21080	186900	776700	61270	146900	85310	122200	16210	5876
2020-10-01	452000	2970000	47120	123300	19920	16530	71150	289400	28450	784900	9790	584300	18870	16390	27480	36800	311900	119800	85770	77820	128200	91690	5659	8816	13900	53270	4746000	155000	460700	816600	6198000	290800	472800	735000	799300	309000	1169000	672900	319400	7103000	7383	167600	85860	216900	814900	70800	57460	15440	19910	698700	298100	12070	87980	40910	291200	118500	57820	69080	165000	128300	125300	5376	130700	97600	119200	96930	12670	200900	22120	45190	203600	27160	78110	456900	152800	90830	32590	162800	146200	21270	187300	776700	62300	147400	85480	124700	16450	5993
2020-10-02	456600	3017000	47790	125100	19930	16670	72650	290700	29050	794300	9846	593000	19120	16480	28280	37270	312600	122200	85770	78520	129200	91790	5759	8958	13970	53570	4757000	155400	461200	818800	6257000	294900	476600	737200	801000	309600	1174000	673200	320200	7107000	7393	169400	86670	217000	816500	71020	57500	15500	19960	699400	298700	12110	88370	41020	292000	119000	58040	69510	165100	128400	125700	5380	131200	97600	120400	97080	12830	201000	22420	45510	203900	27190	78160	457400	153400	91980	32610	163300	146300	21440	187600	776700	63210	147800	85660	125900	16640	6091
2020-10-03	462200	3047000	48390	126400	19960	16820	73900	291900	29510	806000	9892	600900	19340	16550	29010	37600	313800	124300	85770	79470	130100	91880	5853	9085	14030	53930	4766000	155700	461800	821600	6312000	299200	476600	738800	801500	310300	1179000	673200	321000	7114000	7397	172100	87950	217000	817500	71020	57630	15540	20010	699400	299300	12140	88730	41200	293200	119400	58320	69720	165200	128500	126200	5386	131700	97600	121600	97190	13000	201200	22700	45860	204100	27210	78240	457800	154000	92920	32630	163700	146300	21580	188000	776700	63950	148200	85840	127700	16750	6159

Further information

We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
The forecasts are constructed as follows:
1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.
[2020-06-24] Research presentation on short-term COVID-19 forecasting on 26 June (14:00 UK time) at the Quarterly Forecasting Forum of the IIF UK Chapter.
[2020-06-06] Removed Brazil from yesterday's forecasts (only; last observation 2020-06-05).
[2020-06-04] Data issues with confirmed cases for France.
Added an appendix to the short term paper with further forecast comparisons for European and Latin American countries.
Both Sweden and Iran have lost their peak in confirmed cases. For Sweden the previous peak was on 24 April (daily peak of 656 cases), for Iran it was on 31 March (peak of 3116). For Iran this looks like a second wave, with increasing daily counts for the last four weeks. For Sweden this is a sudden jump in confirmed cases in the last two days, compared to a fairly steady weekly pattern over the previous six weeks.
[2020-05-20] Problem with UK confirmed cases: negative daily count. This makes the forecasts temporarily unreliable.
Updated the second paper.
[2020-05-18] Minor fixes to the improved version of scenario forecasting, backported to 2020-05-13.
[2020-05-13] We now omit countries with fewer than 200 confirmed cases in the last week (25 for deaths).
The short-term paper has some small updates, including further comparisons with other models.
Data for Ecuador are not reliable enough for forecasting.
Switched to an improved version of scenario forecasting.
[2020-05-06] The New York Times is in the process of redefining its US state data. Unfortunately, at the moment only the last observation has changed (e.g New York deaths jumped from 19645 on 2020-05-05 to 25956 a day later). This means the data is currently useless; however it does bring it close to the Johns Hopkins/CSSE count (25626 on 2020-05-06). The aggregate US count is based on JH/CSSE so unaffected. We now use Johns Hopkins/CSSE US state data, including all states with sufficient counts. So the new forecasts cannot be compared to those previously.
A minor change is that we show the graph without scenario forecast if no peak has been detected yet.
[2020-04-29] See our blog entry at the International Institute of Forecasters.
US history of death counts revised in Johns Hopkins/CSSE data.
UK death counts have been revised to include the deaths in care homes. In the Johns Hopkins/CSSE data set, which we use, the entire history has been revised. So forecasts made up to 2020-04-29 cannot be compared to later outcomes. In the ECDC data set only the last observation has changed, causing a jump in the series.
[2020-04-27] Our short-term COVID-19 forecasting paper is now available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06.
A small adjustment has been made to the scenario forecast methodology, and will be documented shortly.
[2020-04-24] A summary of our work on short-term COVID-19 forecasting appeared as a voxeu.
[2020-04-17] Bird and Nielsen look into nowcasting death counts in England.
[2020-04-16] Added scenario forecasts to all graphs now. This would now be the preferred forecast for most.
This is the first time with a peak in confirmed UK cases (also for deaths, but this is uncertain because it is at the same date).
[2020-04-10] Updated documentation with better description of short-term estimates and peak determination.
[2020-04-09] Added table with estimated peak dates (if happened) and dates to and since the peak. Note that this can be a local peak, and subsequent re-acceleration (or data revisions) can result in a new peak later.
[2020-04-08] Minor correction to peak estimates. Added table with scenario forecasts.
[2020-04-06] Added a post hoc estimate of the peak number of cases. This needs at least three confirmed observations (four for deaths) after the event. It is based on the averaged smooth trend, and can change later or be a local peak. It is marked with a vertical line with the date label, or a date with left arrow in the bottom left corner of the graph. This is backported to 2020-04-04.
[2020-04-02] Now including more US States, based on New York Times data.
[2020-03-31] Scenario forecasts, based on what happened in China earlier this year, are presented for several countries (line marked with x). Created more plausible 90% confidence bands (dotted line in same colour).
[2020-03-26] Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, only for Italy.
[2020-03-24] Our forecasts are starting to overestimate in some cases. This was always expected to happen when the increase starts to slow down. Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, but only for Italy and Spain sofar.

COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2020-09-24

General information