COVID-19 short-term forecasts

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in Europe 2020-10-01

	UK	EU	AT	BE	BG	BS	CZ	DE	DK	ES	FI	FR	GR	HR	HU	IE	IT	NL	PL	PT	RO	SE	SI	SK	NO	CH
Peak date (mm-dd)	--	--	08-26	--	07-24	07-19	--	08-23	09-17	--	08-19	08-21	--	08-29	--	08-29	03-24	--	--	04-10	--	09-22	--	--	03-26	09-21
Peak daily increment			276		239	112		1306	656		25	5592		280		119	5643			830		334			240	520
Days since peak			36		69	74		39	14		43	41		33		33	191			174		9			189	10
Last total	460178	2938945	45686	121059	20833	16829	74255	295539	28396	778607	10103	589825	18886	16827	27309	36597	317409	124097	93481	76396	129658	93615	5865	10938	14149	53832
Last daily increment	6914	49008	873	2607	0	256	5336	2626	398	9419	111	12918	411	234	848	442	2548	3252	1967	854	2086	752	175	797	122	550
Last week	36942	239323	4186	10083	1005	1294	12937	11827	2802	62126	619	62271	1973	1032	5182	2282	11174	18179	9085	4341	9975	2692	858	2890	604	1968
Previous peak date	04-06	03-31	03-26	04-08	04-24	03-28	04-01	03-27	04-04	03-26	04-04	04-12	04-01	--	04-10	04-10	--	03-30	--	--	04-09	06-19	--	04-17	--	03-27
Previous peak daily increment	5031	29995	808	1498	99	283	278	5663	316	8025	146	19306	92		105	1117		1081			376	1075		54		1137
Low between peaks			27		12	11		318	19		5	251				9						99				15

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed 2020-10-01

	Australia	Brazil	Canada	Chile	Colombia	India	Indonesia	Iran	Mexico	Peru	Philippines	Russia	South Africa	Turkey	US	US-AK	US-AL	US-AR	US-AZ	US-CA	US-CO	US-CT	US-DC	US-DE	US-FL	US-GA	US-HI	US-IA	US-ID	US-IL	US-IN	US-KS	US-KY	US-LA	US-MA	US-MD	US-ME	US-MI	US-MN	US-MO	US-MS	US-MT	US-NC	US-ND	US-NE	US-NH	US-NJ	US-NM	US-NV	US-NY	US-OH	US-OK	US-OR	US-PA	US-SC	US-SD	US-TN	US-TX	US-UT	US-VA	US-WA	US-WI	US-WV	US-WY
Peak date (mm-dd)	08-02	08-04	--	06-06	08-13	09-16	--	--	07-31	08-02	08-10	05-09	07-16	04-14	07-19	--	09-16	--	07-04	07-20	--	07-24	07-24	08-14	07-17	07-30	08-27	08-27	09-09	09-04	--	--	--	07-19	04-17	07-28	05-22	07-29	09-28	09-26	07-24	--	07-22	--	--	05-01	07-31	--	07-19	04-01	07-03	--	07-24	07-24	07-16	--	07-27	09-21	09-27	08-07	08-01	--	09-26	--
Peak daily increment	483	45353		7363	11283	91488			6738	8364	4291	10920	12483	4816	67049		11793		3552	9257		225	71	208	11222	3329	243	1648	976	3883				2160	2171	887	48	728	1106	1440	1273		1993			89	403		1108	9495	1810		334	901	1837		2139	17495	950	1435	1071		193
Days since peak	60	58		117	49	15			62	60	52	145	77	170	74		15		89	73		69	69	48	76	63	35	35	22	27				74	167	65	132	64	3	5	69		71			153	62		74	183	90		69	69	77		66	10	4	55	61		5
Last total	27109	4847092	162930	464750	835339	6312584	291182	461044	748315	814829	314079	1179634	676084	320070	7277759	7929	155744	82851	219212	822205	71197	57613	15326	20296	707402	300829	12482	90409	42560	295349	121176	59514	69728	166390	129976	125510	5428	133007	100037	115630	98886	13500	212898	22218	45869	8313	205551	28280	80410	460031	155314	88358	33862	165044	148323	23136	191359	776736	60614	148536	87786	125161	16026	6083
Last daily increment	13	36157	1823	1759	5660	0	4174	3825	5099	3061	2385	8835	1745	1407	43752	124	1043	1065	705	3090	682	214	0	174	2616	1550	105	1166	513	2194	1157	474	888	551	694	785	39	997	1057	191	696	429	2627	372	595	50	605	224	430	1382	1327	1188	353	945	381	747	1242	3717	836	444	566	2887	176	135
Last week	93	157479	10213	10882	37022	408652	24337	21162	27457	20245	14718	48546	7555	8615	241877	693	5086	4671	2845	18545	3292	1158	163	698	13169	6963	621	5385	2804	11559	5769	3089	4662	2658	3110	3151	194	5621	6003	5208	2854	1936	6706	2333	2984	232	3791	1167	2657	6276	6420	5900	1548	6030	4421	2582	7696	25668	4807	4242	2855	14333	1064	663
Previous peak date	03-28	--	05-03	--	--	--	--	04-01	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	07-16	--	--	--	04-24	04-20	05-01	04-26	--	--	--	--	--	05-12	05-01	04-30	--	04-02	--	05-06	--	04-06	--	--	--	--	--	05-21	05-01	--	04-08	07-23	--	--	04-19	--	--	04-09	--	05-09	--	07-16	--	05-26	04-04	--	05-27	--
Previous peak daily increment	360		1991					2956									1805				729	1012	190	197						2695	689	303		1518		1017		1627						76	493		4272	286			994			1624		159		9846		1076	427		50
Low between peaks	7																587					72	31	50						611				192		361		154									83				386			423				3896		479	207		21

Confirmed count forecast Europe (bold red line in graphs) 2020-10-02 to 2020-10-08

Date	UK	EU	AT	BE	BG	BS	CZ	DE	DK	ES	FI	FR	GR	HR	HU	IE	IT	NL	PL	PT	RO	SE	SI	SK	NO	CH
2020-10-01	460178	2938945	45686	121059	20833	16829	74255	295539	28396	778607	10103	589825	18886	16827	27309	36597	317409	124097	93481	76396	129658	93615	5865	10938	14149	53832
2020-10-02	467600	2967000	46280	123700	20990	17040	80100	296600	28890	792600	10200	601300	19160	17080	28080	37050	319600	126700	95500	77080	131300	93620	6081	11440	14260	54350
2020-10-03	474100	2996000	46860	126300	21140	17200	83400	298100	29380	793000	10300	601300	19420	17260	28990	37470	322000	129000	97400	77740	132700	93690	6271	11920	14360	54420
2020-10-04	480100	3021000	47430	128900	21190	17340	85300	299400	29860	793000	10400	601300	19680	17420	29870	37880	324200	133500	99000	78390	134200	93740	6439	12430	14460	54490
2020-10-05	484800	3041000	48000	131500	21370	17610	88000	301300	30340	823800	10490	626900	19940	17460	30610	38270	326100	138400	100600	79020	135500	93760	6509	12930	14560	55180
2020-10-06	491500	3059000	48570	134200	21580	17790	93100	303000	30830	826100	10590	636000	20200	17600	31330	38670	328000	138400	101900	79660	136800	95050	6635	13460	14670	55420
2020-10-07	498500	3076000	49140	136900	21810	18000	96400	305200	31320	843100	10680	645900	20470	17790	32170	39060	330300	138400	103400	80300	138100	95420	6845	14010	14770	55800
2020-10-08	505300	3090000	49720	139600	21870	18210	101500	307500	31810	852600	10780	660400	20740	18010	33040	39460	332300	138400	105300	80940	139300	95970	7026	14590	14870	56280

Confirmed count forecast (bold red line in graphs) 2020-10-02 to 2020-10-08

Date	Brazil	Canada	Chile	Colombia	India	Indonesia	Iran	Mexico	Peru	Philippines	Russia	South Africa	Turkey	US	US-AK	US-AL	US-AR	US-AZ	US-CA	US-CO	US-CT	US-DE	US-FL	US-GA	US-HI	US-IA	US-ID	US-IL	US-IN	US-KS	US-KY	US-LA	US-MA	US-MD	US-MI	US-MN	US-MO	US-MS	US-MT	US-NC	US-ND	US-NE	US-NH	US-NJ	US-NM	US-NV	US-NY	US-OH	US-OK	US-OR	US-PA	US-SC	US-SD	US-TN	US-TX	US-UT	US-VA	US-WA	US-WI	US-WV	US-WY
2020-10-01	4847092	162930	464750	835339	6312584	291182	461044	748315	814829	314079	1179634	676084	320070	7277759	7929	155744	82851	219212	822205	71197	57613	20296	707402	300829	12482	90409	42560	295349	121176	59514	69728	166390	129976	125510	133007	100037	115630	98886	13500	212898	22218	45869	8313	205551	28280	80410	460031	155314	88358	33862	165044	148323	23136	191359	776736	60614	148536	87786	125161	16026	6083
2020-10-02	4887000	165300	466100	843500	6336000	295500	464100	752600	827800	316800	1188000	678300	321300	7321000	8079	156700	83580	219700	826500	71720	57720	20400	709700	303300	12590	91170	42970	296700	122300	60360	70500	167300	130000	126000	133600	100900	115900	99400	13960	214700	22650	46370	8340	206200	28590	80780	461300	156100	89380	34110	166200	150200	23910	193300	780800	61580	150000	88240	127600	16260	6328
2020-10-03	4915000	167400	468100	850200	6362000	299600	467200	757800	829600	319600	1195000	679300	322400	7364000	8233	157700	84480	220200	830100	72220	57870	20500	712000	304700	12700	92080	43350	299000	123500	60630	71250	167300	130500	126500	134500	101800	116700	100000	14390	215800	23080	46840	8373	206800	28860	81130	462500	157100	90380	34350	167400	151300	24620	194500	784800	62410	150800	88680	130000	16480	6466
2020-10-04	4928000	169500	469800	856400	6389000	303700	470400	761400	834600	322300	1203000	680500	323600	7399000	8382	158600	85030	220500	832300	72710	58040	20590	714300	305400	12790	92740	43730	300300	124500	60820	72000	168100	131000	127000	134500	102600	117000	100200	14830	216500	23510	47320	8406	207400	29130	81480	463700	157900	91370	34590	168400	152000	25140	196100	788900	63250	151500	89110	132300	16650	6661
2020-10-05	4937000	171500	471300	860600	6417000	307600	473800	764400	839400	325000	1211000	681200	324700	7433000	8514	159500	85620	220700	835000	73200	58200	20690	716500	305900	12870	93280	44100	301700	125300	61800	72750	168300	131300	127400	135800	103400	117000	100400	15260	217600	23940	47780	8439	208000	29380	81830	464900	158800	92340	34820	169500	152500	25390	196900	792800	63910	151900	89540	134600	16790	6832
2020-10-06	4968000	173500	472700	865900	6445000	311400	477200	768500	841600	327700	1218000	682100	325800	7471000	8636	160400	86300	221400	837700	73680	58360	20790	718700	307000	12930	94080	44460	302900	126000	62150	73500	168800	131600	127900	136600	104200	117100	100900	15700	218600	24370	48250	8472	208500	29640	82170	466000	159600	93320	35050	170900	153700	25770	197700	796800	64490	152800	89960	136800	16950	7015
2020-10-07	4994000	175500	474200	871300	6473000	315300	480600	772900	844900	330400	1226000	683700	327000	7509000	8762	161300	87180	221700	840500	74160	58520	20890	720900	308500	13040	95130	44830	304800	126900	62850	74260	169200	132100	128400	137700	105000	117200	101400	16140	219100	24800	48730	8504	209100	29900	82510	467200	160600	94310	35280	172000	154100	26270	199100	800700	65200	153300	90380	139100	17090	7233
2020-10-08	5036000	177500	475800	877000	6502000	319100	484600	777500	848900	333200	1233000	685500	328100	7550000	8867	162200	88100	222400	843600	74650	58680	20980	723200	309900	13140	96080	45200	306900	127900	63260	75040	169700	132700	128800	138700	105800	117700	102100	16600	221200	25240	49210	8537	209700	30160	82850	468300	161800	95300	35520	172800	154700	26840	200300	804700	66060	153900	90810	141300	17280	7305

Confirmed count average forecast Europe (bold black line in graphs) 2020-10-02 to 2020-10-08

Date	UK	EU	AT	BE	BG	BS	CZ	DE	DK	ES	FI	FR	GR	HR	HU	IE	IT	NL	PL	PT	RO	SE	SI	SK	NO	CH
2020-10-01	460178	2938945	45686	121059	20833	16829	74255	295539	28396	778607	10103	589825	18886	16827	27309	36597	317409	124097	93481	76396	129658	93615	5865	10938	14149	53832
2020-10-02	467100	2979000	46410	123100	21030	17060	77480	297500	28880	791400	10200	604000	19220	17020	28290	36990	319200	127800	95200	77180	131500	94120	6048	11520	14270	54180
2020-10-03	472900	2997000	47070	124900	21180	17250	79670	298300	29400	796700	10280	607400	19540	17190	29290	37320	320200	130500	96600	77850	133000	94190	6207	12010	14360	54340
2020-10-04	478400	3012000	47690	126600	21280	17400	81000	299000	29920	802000	10350	610900	19770	17350	30240	37650	321000	133300	98000	78490	134400	94250	6358	12470	14450	54490
2020-10-05	483800	3050000	48290	128400	21450	17670	82180	300000	30450	821200	10420	631300	20070	17450	31120	37980	321700	136900	99300	79120	135700	94300	6476	12930	14550	54850
2020-10-06	489100	3069000	48990	130200	21600	17870	84990	300800	30990	828700	10490	641400	20460	17610	31990	38310	322400	139600	100600	79690	137000	94920	6603	13410	14650	55040
2020-10-07	494700	3091000	49660	132100	21760	18110	88070	301600	31530	840500	10550	649300	20840	17780	32900	38650	323300	141800	101900	80340	138800	95090	6775	13910	14740	55310
2020-10-08	500600	3118000	50420	133900	21910	18370	92060	302500	32090	850800	10610	666300	21280	17970	33830	38980	324000	144100	103300	80990	140500	95280	6933	14450	14840	55580

Confirmed count average forecast (bold black line in graphs) 2020-10-02 to 2020-10-08

Date	Brazil	Canada	Chile	Colombia	India	Indonesia	Iran	Mexico	Peru	Philippines	Russia	South Africa	Turkey	US	US-AK	US-AL	US-AR	US-AZ	US-CA	US-CO	US-CT	US-DE	US-FL	US-GA	US-HI	US-IA	US-ID	US-IL	US-IN	US-KS	US-KY	US-LA	US-MA	US-MD	US-MI	US-MN	US-MO	US-MS	US-MT	US-NC	US-ND	US-NE	US-NH	US-NJ	US-NM	US-NV	US-NY	US-OH	US-OK	US-OR	US-PA	US-SC	US-SD	US-TN	US-TX	US-UT	US-VA	US-WA	US-WI	US-WV	US-WY
2020-10-01	4847092	162930	464750	835339	6312584	291182	461044	748315	814829	314079	1179634	676084	320070	7277759	7929	155744	82851	219212	822205	71197	57613	20296	707402	300829	12482	90409	42560	295349	121176	59514	69728	166390	129976	125510	133007	100037	115630	98886	13500	212898	22218	45869	8313	205551	28280	80410	460031	155314	88358	33862	165044	148323	23136	191359	776736	60614	148536	87786	125161	16026	6083
2020-10-02	4880000	164700	466700	841600	6360000	295600	464600	753300	821400	316400	1186000	677500	321500	7326000	8061	157000	83750	219700	825000	71780	57800	20410	709800	302300	12590	91530	43050	297700	122200	60330	70590	167000	130400	126100	134100	101100	116300	99500	13930	214400	22660	46380	8348	206200	28540	80920	461100	156400	89430	34190	166100	149300	23690	192800	780600	61560	149300	88440	127900	16220	6220
2020-10-03	4907000	165900	468700	848200	6431000	299900	467600	758100	824600	318900	1191000	678700	322900	7367000	8166	157900	84580	220200	826800	72310	57960	20510	712100	303700	12690	92410	43470	299900	123100	60740	71320	167100	130700	126600	134900	102100	117500	100000	14310	215500	23160	46830	8381	206700	28730	81350	462000	157400	90460	34440	167000	150300	24160	194000	783500	62480	150000	88860	130700	16420	6268
2020-10-04	4919000	167200	470500	854300	6499000	303900	470700	761900	829500	321400	1195000	679900	324300	7400000	8269	158400	85200	220500	827900	72850	58120	20610	714200	304500	12780	93170	43850	301500	124000	61120	72000	167800	131000	127000	135000	103100	118500	100300	14560	216300	23570	47280	8413	207300	28880	81730	462800	158000	91490	34680	167800	151200	24530	195500	786500	63380	150700	89150	132600	16600	6403
2020-10-05	4928000	168600	471900	859600	6561000	307700	474000	765300	834200	323800	1199000	680900	325800	7433000	8370	159100	85860	220800	829300	73270	58280	20710	716100	305200	12860	93900	44250	303000	124900	61900	72680	168000	131200	127400	136100	104000	119400	100600	14850	217400	23910	47740	8446	207800	29010	82120	463700	158700	92530	34910	168700	152000	24810	196500	789800	64210	151300	89380	134300	16760	6519
2020-10-06	4962000	169900	473200	865500	6633000	311800	477500	769400	837600	326300	1203000	682000	327200	7470000	8460	159800	86550	221400	830700	73720	58440	20800	718500	306300	12930	94700	44620	304400	125700	62340	73400	168400	131400	127700	136900	104900	120200	101100	15170	218300	24300	48200	8478	208300	29130	82400	464500	159400	93580	35140	169700	153100	25130	197500	794500	65020	152000	89580	136500	16940	6587
2020-10-07	4981000	171200	474500	871900	6709000	316200	480500	773700	842300	328700	1206000	683500	328700	7505000	8542	160600	87370	221800	832200	74230	58610	20900	720800	307900	13030	95600	45040	306100	126500	62960	74140	168900	131600	128000	137700	105700	121300	101600	15510	219400	24760	48660	8511	208900	29290	82720	465400	160100	94640	35360	170600	153900	25530	198900	797800	65900	152600	89810	138600	17110	6733
2020-10-08	5028000	172400	476000	878400	6784000	320800	483800	777800	847200	331200	1210000	685100	330100	7545000	8632	161200	88220	222400	833700	74780	58770	21000	723000	309400	13120	96470	45470	308000	127500	63450	74880	169300	131900	128400	138500	106600	122300	102100	15910	221300	25270	49130	8544	209400	29490	83110	466200	160800	95710	35630	171300	154800	25950	200100	801500	66860	153300	90150	141400	17310	6854

Confirmed count scenario forecast (bold purple line in graphs) 2020-10-02 to 2020-10-10

Date	UK	EU	AT	BE	BG	BS	CZ	DE	DK	ES	FI	FR	GR	HR	HU	IE	IT	NL	PL	PT	RO	SE	SI	SK	NO	CH	Brazil	Canada	Chile	Colombia	India	Indonesia	Iran	Mexico	Peru	Philippines	Russia	South Africa	Turkey	US	US-AK	US-AL	US-AR	US-AZ	US-CA	US-CO	US-CT	US-DE	US-FL	US-GA	US-HI	US-IA	US-ID	US-IL	US-IN	US-KS	US-KY	US-LA	US-MA	US-MD	US-MI	US-MN	US-MO	US-MS	US-MT	US-NC	US-ND	US-NE	US-NH	US-NJ	US-NM	US-NV	US-NY	US-OH	US-OK	US-OR	US-PA	US-SC	US-SD	US-TN	US-TX	US-UT	US-VA	US-WA	US-WI	US-WV	US-WY
2020-10-01	460178	2938945	45686	121059	20833	16829	74255	295539	28396	778607	10103	589825	18886	16827	27309	36597	317409	124097	93481	76396	129658	93615	5865	10938	14149	53832	4847092	162930	464750	835339	6312584	291182	461044	748315	814829	314079	1179634	676084	320070	7277759	7929	155744	82851	219212	822205	71197	57613	20296	707402	300829	12482	90409	42560	295349	121176	59514	69728	166390	129976	125510	133007	100037	115630	98886	13500	212898	22218	45869	8313	205551	28280	80410	460031	155314	88358	33862	165044	148323	23136	191359	776736	60614	148536	87786	125161	16026	6083
2020-10-02	469200	2989000	46150	123400	20960	17130	76650	296200	29150	790100	10140	600600	19410	16960	28260	36810	319100	127400	95700	76910	132000	94040	6067	11090	14260	54170	4867000	165500	466500	840700	6412000	297900	469800	750800	819900	316200	1187000	677300	321500	7307000	7976	156600	84350	219700	825900	72470	57640	20310	709000	301800	12550	90810	42600	296400	123600	60580	70670	166700	130300	125900	133500	101800	117600	99000	13880	213600	22900	46530	8340	206100	28350	80680	460600	156000	89870	34460	165500	149900	23570	192300	780400	61940	149400	88100	129200	16330	6253
2020-10-03	476000	3026000	46650	124600	21080	17350	77900	297700	29750	795800	10220	610600	19660	17080	29050	37060	320900	128800	96800	77570	132800	94420	6211	11540	14380	54450	4886000	166500	468100	845300	6462000	301900	474800	753900	823700	317900	1196000	678600	322700	7349000	8053	158000	84840	220200	829500	73150	57750	20410	710800	302600	12630	91630	42810	298100	124800	61190	71140	167000	131000	126200	134100	102800	119400	99400	14090	214300	23350	46810	8377	206600	28460	81180	461600	157100	90520	34820	166000	150900	23980	193100	784000	62900	150000	88530	131900	16460	6338
2020-10-04	481700	3072000	47140	126100	21170	17510	79810	299000	30340	804200	10260	623400	20040	17190	30010	37390	322900	131100	98300	78240	134500	94830	6289	11910	14490	54680	4902000	169200	469700	850100	6514000	306400	478500	756700	827800	320000	1204000	679800	323900	7383000	8121	159300	85750	220700	832700	73850	57860	20470	712100	303300	12710	92280	43130	299600	126200	61880	72010	167200	131800	126500	134800	103900	120500	99700	14470	214900	23740	47370	8415	207100	28620	81660	462400	158100	91660	35110	166500	151800	24300	193900	786400	63740	150600	88950	134000	16650	6488
2020-10-05	489500	3131000	47570	128700	21220	17830	81680	300300	30920	818100	10310	633000	20370	17310	30670	37620	324800	133200	100000	78820	137400	95210	6390	12320	14620	54990	4918000	171600	471100	854700	6567000	312000	485800	758800	831000	321700	1212000	681000	324900	7419000	8197	159900	87030	221100	835600	74850	57950	20560	713400	304000	12780	92890	43430	301000	127500	62820	73050	167400	133300	126800	135400	105300	122600	100000	14810	215800	24260	48050	8453	207600	28690	82180	463100	159000	93290	35600	167100	152800	24800	195000	790700	64860	151000	89380	136800	16920	6669
2020-10-06	494700	3149000	47970	129300	21280	17990	84090	301500	31410	822300	10330	644300	20610	17390	31630	37820	326900	135300	100600	79390	137800	95710	6459	12690	14750	55410	4933000	172100	472400	859000	6619000	312600	489000	762300	834500	323400	1221000	682000	325900	7453000	8263	160400	87440	221400	837700	75210	58060	20620	714300	304800	12840	93490	43650	302500	128400	63110	73560	167500	136000	127100	136100	105700	125000	100200	15130	216200	24670	48390	8499	208000	28790	82670	463800	159900	93780	35810	167500	153700	25030	195500	793000	65590	151500	89660	139400	17010	6785
2020-10-07	497700	3157000	48370	129900	21310	18060	85430	302600	31990	829800	10360	654900	20920	17480	32290	38000	329100	136600	101600	79960	138400	95940	6547	13180	14870	55580	4945000	172300	473600	863100	6666000	314800	490300	764900	837600	325200	1238000	682700	326800	7479000	8322	160900	87890	221700	839400	75540	58130	20670	714400	305400	12900	93980	43800	304000	128400	63370	73970	167600	139500	127400	137200	106000	126600	100400	15470	216300	25080	48650	8623	208500	28840	83210	464400	160900	94500	35850	167800	154400	25320	196100	795200	66300	151900	89880	141800	17170	6853
2020-10-08	498400	3167000	48680	130700	21350	18060	87130	303500	32500	829800	10380	664600	21070	17550	32890	38130	331700	137600	102100	80640	138500	96080	6573	13510	15000	55830	4955000	172500	474600	868200	6707000	315800	490300	766800	840700	326200	1249000	683100	327700	7496000	8362	160900	87890	222000	841300	75810	58180	20730	717700	305900	12960	94420	44060	305300	128400	63490	73970	167700	142400	127400	137700	106400	126600	100600	15640	216500	25480	48720	8736	208800	28890	83540	465000	161800	94760	35870	168000	155100	25650	196800	796100	66300	152400	90040	143900	17260	6921
2020-10-09	500900	3167000	48960	131600	21360	18060	89380	304400	33100	829900	10400	672900	21270	17620	33520	38300	334900	140800	102900	81310	138900	96370	6689	13710	15140	55990	4964000	172700	474600	872000	6754000	317100	490900	769500	843200	327700	1269000	683700	328800	7507000	8417	160900	87890	222400	843200	75810	58200	20810	718800	305900	13000	94810	44280	306500	128500	63500	73970	167700	144000	127600	138000	106600	126600	100700	15920	216700	25890	48720	8796	209000	28890	83700	465500	162600	94970	35930	168300	156100	26010	197100	796100	66620	152800	90250	146400	17390	7023
2020-10-10	500900	3167000	49200	131800	21370	18060	91320	305200	33550	832500	10400	680500	21440	17690	34150	38460	337700	142200	103800	82000	139300	96700	6816	14120	15310	56100	4967000	172700	474700	874500	6800000	319400	490900	771100	845200	328900	1291000	684300	330000	7513000	8418	160900	87890	222800	844800	75810	58220	20880	718800	306200	13050	95150	44490	307400	128500	63500	73970	167800	145600	127600	138200	106600	127900	100800	16080	216700	26270	48720	8829	209300	28890	83840	466000	163100	94970	35930	168300	156900	26310	197300	796100	67600	153000	90400	148600	17390	7123

Further information

We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
The forecasts are constructed as follows:
1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.
[2020-06-24] Research presentation on short-term COVID-19 forecasting on 26 June (14:00 UK time) at the Quarterly Forecasting Forum of the IIF UK Chapter.
[2020-06-06] Removed Brazil from yesterday's forecasts (only; last observation 2020-06-05).
[2020-06-04] Data issues with confirmed cases for France.
Added an appendix to the short term paper with further forecast comparisons for European and Latin American countries.
Both Sweden and Iran have lost their peak in confirmed cases. For Sweden the previous peak was on 24 April (daily peak of 656 cases), for Iran it was on 31 March (peak of 3116). For Iran this looks like a second wave, with increasing daily counts for the last four weeks. For Sweden this is a sudden jump in confirmed cases in the last two days, compared to a fairly steady weekly pattern over the previous six weeks.
[2020-05-20] Problem with UK confirmed cases: negative daily count. This makes the forecasts temporarily unreliable.
Updated the second paper.
[2020-05-18] Minor fixes to the improved version of scenario forecasting, backported to 2020-05-13.
[2020-05-13] We now omit countries with fewer than 200 confirmed cases in the last week (25 for deaths).
The short-term paper has some small updates, including further comparisons with other models.
Data for Ecuador are not reliable enough for forecasting.
Switched to an improved version of scenario forecasting.
[2020-05-06] The New York Times is in the process of redefining its US state data. Unfortunately, at the moment only the last observation has changed (e.g New York deaths jumped from 19645 on 2020-05-05 to 25956 a day later). This means the data is currently useless; however it does bring it close to the Johns Hopkins/CSSE count (25626 on 2020-05-06). The aggregate US count is based on JH/CSSE so unaffected. We now use Johns Hopkins/CSSE US state data, including all states with sufficient counts. So the new forecasts cannot be compared to those previously.
A minor change is that we show the graph without scenario forecast if no peak has been detected yet.
[2020-04-29] See our blog entry at the International Institute of Forecasters.
US history of death counts revised in Johns Hopkins/CSSE data.
UK death counts have been revised to include the deaths in care homes. In the Johns Hopkins/CSSE data set, which we use, the entire history has been revised. So forecasts made up to 2020-04-29 cannot be compared to later outcomes. In the ECDC data set only the last observation has changed, causing a jump in the series.
[2020-04-27] Our short-term COVID-19 forecasting paper is now available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06.
A small adjustment has been made to the scenario forecast methodology, and will be documented shortly.
[2020-04-24] A summary of our work on short-term COVID-19 forecasting appeared as a voxeu.
[2020-04-17] Bird and Nielsen look into nowcasting death counts in England.
[2020-04-16] Added scenario forecasts to all graphs now. This would now be the preferred forecast for most.
This is the first time with a peak in confirmed UK cases (also for deaths, but this is uncertain because it is at the same date).
[2020-04-10] Updated documentation with better description of short-term estimates and peak determination.
[2020-04-09] Added table with estimated peak dates (if happened) and dates to and since the peak. Note that this can be a local peak, and subsequent re-acceleration (or data revisions) can result in a new peak later.
[2020-04-08] Minor correction to peak estimates. Added table with scenario forecasts.
[2020-04-06] Added a post hoc estimate of the peak number of cases. This needs at least three confirmed observations (four for deaths) after the event. It is based on the averaged smooth trend, and can change later or be a local peak. It is marked with a vertical line with the date label, or a date with left arrow in the bottom left corner of the graph. This is backported to 2020-04-04.
[2020-04-02] Now including more US States, based on New York Times data.
[2020-03-31] Scenario forecasts, based on what happened in China earlier this year, are presented for several countries (line marked with x). Created more plausible 90% confidence bands (dotted line in same colour).
[2020-03-26] Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, only for Italy.
[2020-03-24] Our forecasts are starting to overestimate in some cases. This was always expected to happen when the increase starts to slow down. Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, but only for Italy and Spain sofar.

COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2020-10-01

General information