COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2020-10-03


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
    Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in Europe 2020-10-03

UKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
Peak date (mm-dd) -- --09-26 --07-2209-25 --08-2309-17 --09-2508-21 --08-26 --08-2903-2409-29 --04-10 --09-22 -- --03-2609-21
Peak daily increment 721 238 230 1306 647 104 5592 277 119 5642 6477 830 352 240 477
Days since peak 7 73 8 41 16 8 43 38 35 193 4 176 11 191 12
Last total 480017 3015627 47432 127623 21518 17367 80605 300027 29302 789932 10391 601971 19613 17401 29717 37668 322751 131889 98140 78247 134065 94283 6330 12321 14362 54384
Last daily increment 12871 25043 1058 3389 182 195 2554 1653 370 0 147 0 267 241 1086 605 2843 3967 2367 963 2064 0 227 704 78 0
Last week 45048 284954 4556 13444 1463 1549 16008 13688 2665 73451 709 74417 2169 1204 5703 2678 12881 23258 10810 4643 11392 3360 980 3243 664 2520
Previous peak date04-0603-2903-2604-0804-2403-2804-0103-2704-0403-2604-0404-1204-01 --04-2304-10 --03-31 -- --04-0906-19 --04-17 --03-27
Previous peak daily increment 5031 29106 808 1498 99 283 278 5663 316 8025 146 19307 92 97 1117 1079 376 1075 54 1137
Low between peaks 27 12 -1009 318 19 5 251 9 60 112 15

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed 2020-10-03

AustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
Peak date (mm-dd)08-0208-0405-0306-0608-1309-16 -- --07-3108-0208-1005-0907-1604-1407-19 --09-16 --07-0407-20 --07-2407-24 --07-1707-3008-2708-2709-0909-04 -- -- --07-1904-1707-2805-2207-29 -- --07-24 --07-22 -- -- --07-31 --07-1904-0107-03 --07-2407-2407-16 --07-2709-2109-2708-0708-01 -- -- --
Peak daily increment 483 45354 1991 7363 11283 91407 6738 8364 4291 10919 12483 4816 67033 11467 3552 9258 225 71 11222 3329 243 1648 1006 3858 2160 2171 887 48 728 1273 1996 403 1108 9495 1810 334 901 1837 2139 17248 920 1435 1071
Days since peak 62 60 153 119 51 17 64 62 54 147 79 172 76 17 91 75 71 71 78 65 37 37 24 29 76 169 67 134 66 71 73 64 76 185 92 71 71 79 68 12 6 57 63
Last total 27135 4906833 166360 468471 848147 6549373 299506 468119 757953 821564 319330 1198663 679716 323014 7382194 8196 158380 84552 220399 829521 72533 58165 15326 21035 712825 303693 12700 92289 43702 300001 124059 60725 72001 167202 131335 126819 5484 135236 102622 120377 100167 14356 216886 23134 47068 8592 207222 28914 81708 463360 157966 90718 34511 166238 150891 23986 193531 787425 62427 150583 89091 130798 16481 6365
Last daily increment 14 59741 1306 1881 6615 75829 4007 3523 4863 3267 2652 9735 1883 1502 49994 142 1682 822 636 3508 657 0 0 188 2775 1506 133 812 465 2439 1419 257 1274 0 608 597 18 1251 1428 1507 609 501 2202 440 423 60 935 296 526 1731 1157 1175 348 0 1706 464 1217 5119 887 1093 586 2892 174 151
Last week 91 174524 10932 10570 35091 474671 24293 21671 27636 21422 15104 52390 8950 8581 265969 735 6059 5082 3162 19631 3475 1710 76 1264 13948 7609 614 5688 3201 12167 6609 3851 5510 2547 3366 3416 197 6854 6068 6498 3308 2249 8320 2410 3278 424 4010 1448 2980 7734 7157 6436 1691 5494 5004 2445 6564 28669 4766 4582 3123 14936 1130 732
Previous peak date03-28 -- -- -- -- -- --04-01 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --07-16 -- -- --04-2404-2005-0104-26 -- -- -- -- --05-1205-0104-30 --04-02 --05-06 --04-0605-2204-04 -- -- --05-2105-0105-0204-0807-21 -- --04-19 -- --04-09 --05-09 --07-16 --05-2604-04 -- -- --
Previous peak daily increment 360 2860 1805 729 1012 190 224 2695 689 303 1518 1017 1627 698 295 76 493 89 4272 292 994 1624 159 9846 1076 427
Low between peaks 7 642 72 31 611 192 361 154 83 386 423 3700 479 207

Confirmed count forecast Europe (bold red line in graphs) 2020-10-04 to 2020-10-10

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
2020-10-03 480017 3015627 47432 127623 21518 17367 80605 300027 29302 789932 10391 601971 19613 17401 29717 37668 322751 131889 98140 78247 134065 94283 6330 12321 14362 54384
2020-10-04 490900 3016000 48160 130000 21520 17440 84600 300200 29780 790500 10500 602000 19840 17590 30780 38140 325000 135900 99400 78650 135200 94280 6512 12790 14470 54570
2020-10-05 499000 3089000 48860 132200 21650 17720 86500 302300 30260 821100 10610 629100 20130 17630 31420 38590 327000 139800 100600 79180 136500 94370 6683 13230 14570 55230
2020-10-06 509100 3124000 49570 134500 21810 17900 89300 304200 30730 824800 10720 640000 20520 17780 32010 39030 329200 143600 101900 79810 138100 95750 6854 13670 14670 55460
2020-10-07 519200 3167000 50250 136800 21970 18100 92100 306200 31200 839800 10830 648600 20870 17980 32790 39470 331500 147500 103100 80620 140300 96040 7018 14100 14780 55860
2020-10-08 529400 3212000 50950 139000 21970 18330 95700 308500 31670 848400 10940 663400 21290 18200 33130 39900 333600 151300 104500 81330 142200 96630 7183 14530 14880 56310
2020-10-09 539700 3263000 51640 141400 22160 18620 99600 311100 32150 859400 11050 676300 21720 18490 34130 40340 335900 155200 106100 82200 144500 97260 7350 14980 14980 56770
2020-10-10 549900 3280000 52350 143700 22340 18780 102500 312500 32630 859400 11160 676300 22020 18700 35460 40780 338100 159200 108200 83050 146400 97260 7519 15440 15080 56800

Confirmed count forecast (bold red line in graphs) 2020-10-04 to 2020-10-10

DateBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
2020-10-03 4906833 166360 468471 848147 6549373 299506 468119 757953 821564 319330 1198663 679716 323014 7382194 8196 158380 84552 220399 829521 72533 58165 21035 712825 303693 12700 92289 43702 300001 124059 60725 72001 167202 131335 126819 135236 102622 120377 100167 14356 216886 23134 47068 8592 207222 28914 81708 463360 157966 90718 34511 166238 150891 23986 193531 787425 62427 150583 89091 130798 16481 6365
2020-10-04 4933000 167700 470000 857100 6630000 304100 471400 762100 831700 322000 1207000 681400 324400 7414000 8343 159100 85370 221200 832800 73110 58340 21070 715900 305500 12800 92790 43700 301300 124500 60930 73050 168200 131300 127300 135200 104100 121900 100400 14680 217700 23740 47480 8640 207900 29220 82130 464700 158400 91810 34780 166200 151900 24300 195100 791800 63390 151400 89580 134800 16720 6521
2020-10-05 4945000 169000 471500 861700 6710000 307700 474500 765200 836300 324700 1216000 682100 325800 7452000 8496 159900 86170 221600 835600 73670 58490 21250 716700 306000 12890 93430 44140 302900 125300 61940 74050 168400 131500 127800 136700 105200 123300 100600 15010 218900 24070 47870 8678 208600 29410 82520 466000 159400 92870 35030 166500 152900 24520 196300 796000 64090 152200 90040 136700 16890 6640
2020-10-06 4974000 170300 472900 866900 6790000 311600 477700 769500 837900 327300 1224000 682900 327200 7492000 8640 160800 86950 222300 838400 74230 58670 21450 719300 307000 12950 94290 44620 304200 126100 62350 75050 168800 131700 128300 137600 106000 124900 101100 15360 219800 24460 48290 8722 209200 29630 82920 467300 160300 93910 35280 167100 153800 24780 197600 800300 64680 153000 90510 139100 17080 6718
2020-10-07 5002000 171500 474400 872800 6869000 315800 480800 774100 841500 329900 1233000 684600 328500 7530000 8764 161600 87720 222800 841400 74780 58840 21580 721200 308500 13060 95270 45100 306200 126800 63010 76040 169200 131900 128800 138600 106900 126300 101700 15720 220500 24940 48690 8760 209900 29960 83290 468500 161300 94930 35530 167500 154800 25170 198800 804400 65410 153700 90960 141300 17270 6856
2020-10-08 5041000 172800 476000 878700 6949000 319900 483900 778700 845500 332500 1241000 686300 329900 7571000 8920 162500 88500 223500 844400 75330 59010 21760 723700 310000 13170 96250 45550 308400 127800 63400 77040 169700 132200 129300 139600 107900 127800 102300 16080 222400 25390 49090 8797 210500 30130 83670 469800 162500 95940 35770 167600 155700 25850 200000 808600 66250 154500 91410 144400 17440 6985
2020-10-09 5052000 174000 477800 884600 7029000 324100 487000 783200 850300 335100 1249000 687900 331200 7623000 9080 163300 89270 224100 848100 75880 59180 22020 726300 311300 13250 97430 46170 310500 129200 64380 78050 170400 132600 129800 140600 109000 129200 103000 16420 224100 25910 49500 8835 211200 30440 84040 471000 163800 96950 36020 168000 156600 26280 201200 812800 67200 155200 91860 147100 17730 7100
2020-10-10 5098000 175200 479700 891000 7110000 328200 490100 787800 853000 337700 1257000 689500 332600 7667000 9210 164100 90050 224600 851500 76430 59350 22160 729000 312800 13370 98210 46570 312900 130700 64590 79080 170400 133200 130300 141600 110000 130800 103500 16970 225700 26410 49910 8873 211800 30710 84420 472200 164800 97970 36260 168300 157600 26780 202500 817000 68100 156000 92310 149200 17910 7232

Confirmed count average forecast Europe (bold black line in graphs) 2020-10-04 to 2020-10-10

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
2020-10-03 480017 3015627 47432 127623 21518 17367 80605 300027 29302 789932 10391 601971 19613 17401 29717 37668 322751 131889 98140 78247 134065 94283 6330 12321 14362 54384
2020-10-04 488900 3033000 48140 130400 21680 17540 82800 301400 29770 793900 10500 606500 19860 17610 30850 38140 324700 135600 100000 79010 135800 94450 6527 12960 14460 54590
2020-10-05 495600 3090000 48760 132500 21860 17830 84300 302600 30300 817800 10580 625800 20170 17720 31630 38530 325600 138800 101600 79660 137200 94490 6652 13520 14560 54990
2020-10-06 502700 3115000 49410 134600 22070 18020 86800 303600 30820 824300 10670 636400 20560 17860 32370 38920 326500 141500 103100 80300 138600 95170 6800 14090 14660 55210
2020-10-07 509800 3146000 50090 136700 22270 18250 88900 304700 31350 839000 10740 646000 20920 18040 33310 39310 327600 144700 104600 80970 140600 95340 6984 14680 14760 55480
2020-10-08 517100 3178000 50860 138800 22380 18510 93400 305700 31890 849100 10820 659500 21370 18240 34140 39700 328400 147700 106300 81630 142400 95590 7160 15310 14860 55780
2020-10-09 524500 3210000 51570 141000 22600 18800 97500 306700 32440 861300 10890 672200 21780 18450 35240 40100 329400 151100 108000 82310 144300 95820 7361 16000 14960 56050
2020-10-10 531900 3221000 52320 143200 22760 18990 100600 307300 33000 866000 10970 677100 22150 18630 36360 40500 330400 154300 109900 82990 145800 95840 7565 16760 15050 56160

Confirmed count average forecast (bold black line in graphs) 2020-10-04 to 2020-10-10

DateBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
2020-10-03 4906833 166360 468471 848147 6549373 299506 468119 757953 821564 319330 1198663 679716 323014 7382194 8196 158380 84552 220399 829521 72533 58165 21035 712825 303693 12700 92289 43702 300001 124059 60725 72001 167202 131335 126819 135236 102622 120377 100167 14356 216886 23134 47068 8592 207222 28914 81708 463360 157966 90718 34511 166238 150891 23986 193531 787425 62427 150583 89091 130798 16481 6365
2020-10-04 4920000 168000 470300 854200 6623000 303500 471300 762000 825300 321700 1206000 681200 324400 7419000 8324 159400 85380 220900 831600 73170 58380 21270 715300 304500 12800 93110 44120 301800 125200 61130 72950 168000 131800 127300 135600 103800 121900 100600 14670 218000 23590 47590 8675 207900 29160 82220 464700 158800 91750 34800 166800 151700 24380 194900 791600 63320 151300 89560 133100 16670 6529
2020-10-05 4931000 169400 471800 859400 6693000 307100 474100 765500 829700 324000 1211000 682200 325800 7454000 8436 160300 86160 221200 832900 73640 58540 21420 717100 305200 12880 93870 44540 303400 126100 61920 73700 168200 132100 127700 136800 104900 123000 100900 15000 219200 23930 48070 8724 208500 29330 82630 465800 159600 92760 35060 167600 152400 24660 195900 795000 64140 152000 89870 134900 16820 6648
2020-10-06 4961000 170700 473100 865100 6769000 311100 476700 769700 832600 326200 1216000 683300 327200 7491000 8548 161100 86930 221700 834300 74150 58710 21590 719400 306200 12950 94760 44960 305000 126900 62420 74500 168700 132400 128100 137600 105800 124100 101400 15360 220200 24320 48550 8774 209100 29500 83020 466800 160400 93870 35310 168500 153500 24990 196800 799700 64920 152600 90170 137000 16980 6731
2020-10-07 4986000 172200 474600 871000 6849000 315300 479200 774100 836300 328400 1221000 684800 328500 7527000 8656 162200 87690 222100 835700 74640 58880 21720 721500 307600 13050 95730 45380 306900 127900 63060 75300 169100 132600 128400 138600 106700 125200 101900 15730 220800 24790 49030 8823 209700 29740 83410 467800 161200 94910 35560 169300 154100 25370 198100 803500 65770 153300 90490 139000 17150 6871
2020-10-08 5027000 173400 476100 877100 6929000 319700 481800 778300 840500 330700 1225000 686400 329900 7567000 8760 163000 88450 222700 837300 75220 59050 21880 723700 309100 13150 96630 45810 308800 128800 63550 76100 169600 132900 128900 139500 107900 126400 102500 16120 222800 25240 49520 8872 210300 29870 83800 468800 162100 96040 35810 170000 154800 25830 199300 807400 66690 153900 90830 141700 17320 6987
2020-10-09 5050000 174700 477800 883500 7007000 324300 484200 782900 846400 332900 1229000 687900 331300 7615000 8879 163900 89220 223200 839200 75780 59220 22040 726000 310600 13250 97630 46260 310800 129800 64340 76920 170200 133100 129400 140300 108900 127800 103000 16520 224600 25750 50010 8922 210900 30030 84260 469800 163000 97250 36070 170800 156000 26300 200700 810600 67690 154600 91240 144400 17560 7120
2020-10-10 5088000 175700 479600 890200 7090000 328800 486400 787700 850100 335100 1233000 689300 332600 7656000 8993 165000 89990 223600 841000 76380 59390 22190 728400 312100 13360 98500 46680 312900 130900 64780 77740 170300 133500 129800 141100 110000 129100 103600 17030 225900 26310 50510 8971 211500 30210 84680 470800 163800 98410 36330 171600 157100 26770 201900 814200 68660 155200 91600 147200 17770 7214

Confirmed count scenario forecast (bold purple line in graphs) 2020-10-04 to 2020-10-12

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCHBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
2020-10-03 480017 3015627 47432 127623 21518 17367 80605 300027 29302 789932 10391 601971 19613 17401 29717 37668 322751 131889 98140 78247 134065 94283 6330 12321 14362 54384 4906833 166360 468471 848147 6549373 299506 468119 757953 821564 319330 1198663 679716 323014 7382194 8196 158380 84552 220399 829521 72533 58165 21035 712825 303693 12700 92289 43702 300001 124059 60725 72001 167202 131335 126819 135236 102622 120377 100167 14356 216886 23134 47068 8592 207222 28914 81708 463360 157966 90718 34511 166238 150891 23986 193531 787425 62427 150583 89091 130798 16481 6365
2020-10-04 484700 3059000 47770 129400 21590 17680 83800 301400 29820 804500 10430 615300 19940 17430 30690 37860 324200 135800 99400 78610 135500 94350 6414 12560 14500 54840 4917000 167500 469900 853500 6614000 304300 474000 760300 827200 321300 1207000 680900 324200 7408000 8290 159400 85980 220700 831900 73530 58330 21230 714300 304600 12760 92840 43920 301200 125400 61690 72800 167900 132000 127000 135300 103700 121900 100300 14600 217300 23590 47650 8679 207500 29300 81880 463900 158700 92160 34840 166900 151600 24370 194400 791900 63290 151000 89260 133100 16740 6485
2020-10-05 489000 3096000 48520 131000 21740 17850 87300 302800 30200 812800 10520 625400 20220 17580 31790 38170 326800 139500 100400 79260 136900 94740 6508 13110 14630 55230 4937000 168600 471600 858900 6675000 307400 477200 763100 831200 323100 1216000 682000 325200 7444000 8374 160000 86600 221100 834400 74060 58460 21350 715800 305400 12840 93540 44210 303000 125900 62210 73740 168100 132700 127400 135900 104400 123300 100700 14780 218000 23940 47940 8730 207900 29360 82290 465000 159500 93070 35040 167400 152100 24670 195200 797000 64090 151500 89660 134900 16910 6603
2020-10-06 494900 3125000 49090 132500 21850 18030 90200 304300 30570 820900 10620 632200 20520 17700 32640 38520 329400 143400 101700 79910 137900 95240 6636 13520 14750 55550 4949000 170400 473300 864100 6736000 310800 482100 765500 835000 324500 1225000 683300 326200 7478000 8469 160400 87310 221500 836600 74850 58600 21650 717100 306200 12920 94150 44450 304600 126600 62680 74080 168400 133600 127700 136400 105600 124200 101100 15110 218600 24240 48340 8842 208300 29750 82820 465900 160400 93850 35410 167900 152400 24940 195900 800700 65050 151900 90020 136800 16980 6691
2020-10-07 500700 3165000 49360 134700 21930 18270 93400 305600 30990 829900 10690 642000 20850 17820 33470 38830 332400 147200 103300 80500 139900 95500 6756 14100 14900 55840 4959000 171800 474600 868800 6788000 314900 485300 767500 838100 326100 1234000 684200 327200 7507000 8576 161200 88400 221900 839400 75690 58780 21900 718300 307000 13000 94820 44780 306400 127300 63480 75040 168500 134600 128000 136900 106800 125300 101500 15340 219100 24700 48910 8945 208700 30120 83170 467100 161300 95000 35660 168400 153000 25360 196300 801200 65630 152300 90290 139100 17220 6804
2020-10-08 502800 3176000 49590 135700 22010 18510 96400 306800 31310 836300 10760 647900 21040 17940 34290 39110 335400 147200 104100 81100 140100 95510 6817 14310 15040 56080 4973000 172200 476000 873700 6832000 315700 487400 769700 841500 327200 1247000 685200 328200 7543000 8601 161900 88670 222300 841300 75850 58910 21910 719400 307400 13070 95310 45120 307900 128100 63500 75200 168600 135800 128300 137400 107000 125600 101800 15480 219800 24900 49120 8957 209100 30160 83680 467800 162200 95080 35800 168900 153700 25570 196700 801800 65720 152700 90510 141000 17280 6873
2020-10-09 503800 3191000 50210 135700 22080 18670 99000 308000 31600 842000 10820 655900 21040 18040 35110 39310 339200 147200 104600 81780 140500 95770 6856 14680 15180 56360 4986000 172500 477500 878100 6887000 317100 488000 771500 843700 328400 1258000 686000 329200 7568000 8626 162700 88670 222700 842900 75850 59030 21910 720400 307900 13130 95810 45300 309100 128500 63600 75410 168700 136800 128500 137700 107000 125700 102000 15560 220300 24950 49140 8964 209300 30160 84070 468900 163100 95190 35810 169200 154100 25630 197000 803500 66080 152900 90690 141000 17280 6887
2020-10-10 504900 3197000 50450 136000 22130 18830 102600 309200 31860 847800 10890 666700 21040 18150 35930 39490 343200 147200 104900 82400 140800 95960 6910 15000 15350 56620 4991000 172500 478400 882400 6921000 318000 488800 772800 846400 329700 1267000 687000 330100 7595000 8635 163100 88760 223200 844200 75850 59130 21910 721100 308100 13180 96350 45620 310700 128600 63670 75530 168800 137600 128700 138100 107000 125700 102200 15640 220300 25080 49190 8964 209600 30160 84440 469700 163900 95770 35810 169400 154500 25740 197300 805200 66290 153200 90870 141000 17340 6925
2020-10-11 509900 3226000 50710 137400 22190 18980 104500 310400 32150 856200 10940 673200 21040 18230 36570 39720 347700 147200 106000 82910 141900 96230 6987 15220 15510 56950 4997000 172500 479300 886600 6977000 321000 488800 773800 848000 330700 1274000 687800 330900 7624000 8720 163200 88920 223500 845100 75850 59170 21910 721100 308400 13240 96760 45880 311800 128600 64110 76140 168800 138600 128900 138300 107000 126200 102300 15790 220400 25350 49230 8964 209900 30160 84700 470400 164800 96560 35810 169600 154900 25940 197400 805200 66800 153500 90950 141000 17480 7007
2020-10-12 510500 3226000 51270 137600 22220 19140 107000 311000 32350 861300 11000 678900 21040 18290 37260 39900 352700 147200 106300 83360 142100 96400 7063 15550 15710 57170 4999000 172500 480200 890800 7010000 321500 488800 774300 848200 331600 1284000 687900 331900 7647000 8732 163300 88920 223900 845700 75850 59220 21910 721100 308800 13290 97120 46070 313000 128600 64140 76240 168900 139400 129100 138400 107000 126600 102400 15900 220800 25430 49230 8964 210100 30160 84890 471200 165700 96650 35810 169600 155400 26080 197600 805200 66940 153600 90950 141000 17510 7042

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.
[2020-06-24] Research presentation on short-term COVID-19 forecasting on 26 June (14:00 UK time) at the Quarterly Forecasting Forum of the IIF UK Chapter.
[2020-06-06] Removed Brazil from yesterday's forecasts (only; last observation 2020-06-05).
[2020-06-04] Data issues with confirmed cases for France.
Added an appendix to the short term paper with further forecast comparisons for European and Latin American countries.
Both Sweden and Iran have lost their peak in confirmed cases. For Sweden the previous peak was on 24 April (daily peak of 656 cases), for Iran it was on 31 March (peak of 3116). For Iran this looks like a second wave, with increasing daily counts for the last four weeks. For Sweden this is a sudden jump in confirmed cases in the last two days, compared to a fairly steady weekly pattern over the previous six weeks.
[2020-05-20] Problem with UK confirmed cases: negative daily count. This makes the forecasts temporarily unreliable.
Updated the second paper.
[2020-05-18] Minor fixes to the improved version of scenario forecasting, backported to 2020-05-13.
[2020-05-13] We now omit countries with fewer than 200 confirmed cases in the last week (25 for deaths).
The short-term paper has some small updates, including further comparisons with other models.
Data for Ecuador are not reliable enough for forecasting.
Switched to an improved version of scenario forecasting.
[2020-05-06] The New York Times is in the process of redefining its US state data. Unfortunately, at the moment only the last observation has changed (e.g New York deaths jumped from 19645 on 2020-05-05 to 25956 a day later). This means the data is currently useless; however it does bring it close to the Johns Hopkins/CSSE count (25626 on 2020-05-06). The aggregate US count is based on JH/CSSE so unaffected. We now use Johns Hopkins/CSSE US state data, including all states with sufficient counts. So the new forecasts cannot be compared to those previously.
A minor change is that we show the graph without scenario forecast if no peak has been detected yet.
[2020-04-29] See our blog entry at the International Institute of Forecasters.
US history of death counts revised in Johns Hopkins/CSSE data.
UK death counts have been revised to include the deaths in care homes. In the Johns Hopkins/CSSE data set, which we use, the entire history has been revised. So forecasts made up to 2020-04-29 cannot be compared to later outcomes. In the ECDC data set only the last observation has changed, causing a jump in the series.
[2020-04-27] Our short-term COVID-19 forecasting paper is now available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06.
A small adjustment has been made to the scenario forecast methodology, and will be documented shortly.
[2020-04-24] A summary of our work on short-term COVID-19 forecasting appeared as a voxeu.
[2020-04-17] Bird and Nielsen look into nowcasting death counts in England.
[2020-04-16] Added scenario forecasts to all graphs now. This would now be the preferred forecast for most.
This is the first time with a peak in confirmed UK cases (also for deaths, but this is uncertain because it is at the same date).
[2020-04-10] Updated documentation with better description of short-term estimates and peak determination.
[2020-04-09] Added table with estimated peak dates (if happened) and dates to and since the peak. Note that this can be a local peak, and subsequent re-acceleration (or data revisions) can result in a new peak later.
[2020-04-08] Minor correction to peak estimates. Added table with scenario forecasts.
[2020-04-06] Added a post hoc estimate of the peak number of cases. This needs at least three confirmed observations (four for deaths) after the event. It is based on the averaged smooth trend, and can change later or be a local peak. It is marked with a vertical line with the date label, or a date with left arrow in the bottom left corner of the graph. This is backported to 2020-04-04.
[2020-04-02] Now including more US States, based on New York Times data.
[2020-03-31] Scenario forecasts, based on what happened in China earlier this year, are presented for several countries (line marked with x). Created more plausible 90% confidence bands (dotted line in same colour).
[2020-03-26] Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, only for Italy.
[2020-03-24] Our forecasts are starting to overestimate in some cases. This was always expected to happen when the increase starts to slow down. Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, but only for Italy and Spain sofar.

Initial visual evaluation of forecasts of Confirmed