COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2020-10-15


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (with Jennie Castle and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting.

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in Europe 2020-10-15

UKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
Peak date (mm-dd)10-04 -- -- -- -- -- -- --09-17 -- -- -- -- -- --08-22 -- -- -- -- --06-19 -- --03-26 --
Peak daily increment 20474 600 110 1075 240
Days since peak 11 28 54 118 203
Last total 673622 3867540 60224 191959 27507 20984 149010 352107 34023 921374 12944 818707 23947 22534 41732 46429 381602 203954 149903 93294 168490 102407 10683 24225 16137 71317
Last daily increment 18978 113602 1552 10448 914 502 9720 7620 430 13318 241 30590 452 793 950 1186 8803 7791 8099 2101 4013 1075 745 1929 184 2613
Last week 97943 483108 7036 42978 3636 2057 39636 31612 2385 60262 1364 116559 2175 3088 6510 5726 37832 42173 33565 9366 19604 3956 2811 7315 749 10949
Previous peak date04-0703-3103-2604-0807-2203-2804-0103-2704-0403-2604-0704-1204-01 --04-1004-1003-2303-30 --03-3104-09 -- --04-17 --03-24
Previous peak daily increment 4729 29994 979 1498 249 312 278 5663 316 8025 137 17715 92 105 1117 5674 1081 955 376 54 1117
Low between peaks 424 19 9

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed 2020-10-15

AustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
Peak date (mm-dd)08-0208-04 --06-0608-1309-1509-24 --10-0508-0208-10 --07-1604-1407-19 --09-16 --07-0407-20 --07-2407-2410-0207-1707-3008-2708-2709-0909-04 -- --10-0707-1910-0407-2805-22 -- -- --07-24 -- -- --10-10 --10-08 --07-1904-01 --10-08 --10-0407-16 --07-2709-2110-1108-07 -- -- -- --
Peak daily increment 483 45353 7362 11286 92760 4209 24200 8364 4291 12483 4816 67048 11301 3552 9257 225 71 459 11222 3329 243 1648 975 3968 1549 2160 561 887 48 1273 1461 982 1108 9495 1224 1217 1837 2139 16459 985 1435
Days since peak 74 72 131 63 30 21 10 74 66 91 184 88 29 103 87 83 83 13 90 77 49 49 36 41 8 88 11 79 146 83 5 7 88 197 7 11 91 80 24 4 69
Last total 27371 5169386 194362 486496 936982 7370468 349160 517835 834910 859740 348698 1346380 698184 342143 7979709 10300 169162 94616 228748 868148 81895 61899 16166 22469 743061 319357 13724 104049 50605 331579 141212 68510 84195 173625 138160 133548 5834 150668 116918 139561 108139 20933 238939 29653 55030 9418 216609 33499 87969 479400 175843 103815 38525 182486 161106 31012 215918 837566 74067 162538 95833 162325 19084 8375
Last daily increment 14 28523 2298 1124 6823 63371 4411 4616 5514 5766 2162 13556 1770 1693 63610 152 1185 1398 1113 2944 1142 186 34 95 3335 1762 88 1156 713 4014 1943 705 1182 747 570 630 18 2437 1157 1701 1322 723 2532 706 955 77 969 656 655 1460 2178 1226 365 1551 1297 797 2165 4830 1164 1302 698 3747 261 198
Last week 127 113498 13737 8727 42682 391045 24502 25457 24890 21126 13928 80808 9832 9761 316416 1139 5697 5201 4664 19072 5300 1984 323 732 15984 8190 461 6176 3517 18109 9719 3796 5739 2992 3637 3389 169 8908 7799 11301 4458 3534 11508 3614 5359 455 4959 2656 3376 7704 9741 6760 1999 8157 5430 3797 11370 25375 5753 6166 3603 17507 1377 1050
Previous peak date03-28 --04-22 -- -- -- --04-01 -- -- --05-11 -- -- -- --07-16 -- -- --07-2404-2005-0104-26 -- -- -- -- --05-12 --04-30 --04-0204-1705-06 --04-03 --04-04 -- -- --05-2105-0105-0204-0807-21 -- --04-19 -- --04-09 --05-09 --07-16 --05-2608-01 -- -- --
Previous peak daily increment 360 1790 2860 11219 1805 585 1012 190 197 2695 332 1518 2171 1017 1550 295 76 441 89 4272 292 1040 1624 159 9846 1076 1071
Low between peaks 7 688 72 31 50 611 192 -15 361 142 83 423 3737 479

Confirmed count forecast Europe (bold red line in graphs) 2020-10-16 to 2020-10-22

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
2020-10-15 673622 3867540 60224 191959 27507 20984 149010 352107 34023 921374 12944 818707 23947 22534 41732 46429 381602 203954 149903 93294 168490 102407 10683 24225 16137 71317
2020-10-16 688000 3913000 61540 203100 28350 21330 149000 359700 34430 934800 13230 831000 24540 23180 42710 47390 386900 214100 156000 95000 172800 102700 11290 25710 16270 71560
2020-10-17 703300 3973000 62810 214200 28990 21720 153100 364700 34820 934800 13460 850000 24880 23800 43690 48320 392800 223900 163200 96600 176800 102800 11860 27160 16390 71920
2020-10-18 718100 4032000 64110 226200 29300 22070 154700 369600 35210 934800 13570 870100 25200 24450 44650 49270 397500 234000 168800 98200 180000 102800 12450 28620 16520 72250
2020-10-19 732100 4084000 65390 238400 30060 22370 158300 375400 35600 960700 13690 890000 25530 25080 45610 50190 400200 244100 173100 99800 182400 102800 13020 30100 16640 73680
2020-10-20 748000 4133000 66690 251200 30830 22640 165200 379700 35990 967400 13920 910500 25960 25730 46580 51120 403400 254700 178400 101500 185400 104800 13610 31650 16760 73820
2020-10-21 766100 4179000 68030 264700 31660 23030 173800 385900 36370 979600 14030 931300 26390 26400 47560 52050 407000 265700 184700 103100 189300 105400 14220 33280 16880 74650
2020-10-22 784400 4224000 69390 278900 32490 23480 185500 392200 36770 991800 14200 952700 26860 27080 48550 52990 411100 277300 191800 104800 193300 106300 14860 34980 17000 77420

Confirmed count forecast (bold red line in graphs) 2020-10-16 to 2020-10-22

DateBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
2020-10-15 5169386 194362 486496 936982 7370468 349160 517835 834910 859740 348698 1346380 698184 342143 7979709 10300 169162 94616 228748 868148 81895 61899 16166 22469 743061 319357 13724 104049 50605 331579 141212 68510 84195 173625 138160 133548 150668 116918 139561 108139 20933 238939 29653 55030 9418 216609 33499 87969 479400 175843 103815 38525 182486 161106 31012 215918 837566 74067 162538 95833 162325 19084 8375
2020-10-16 5208000 196800 488800 943700 7440000 353500 521900 840600 862700 351000 1358000 699100 343700 8008000 10700 170000 95600 228700 871600 82680 62160 16220 22590 744500 320400 13880 104700 51540 334200 142900 69620 85220 174100 138600 134100 152300 117400 140900 108200 22010 242400 30400 55650 9504 217400 33500 88480 480700 177900 104500 38790 183700 162000 31790 217500 841500 74810 163400 97050 165600 19260 8660
2020-10-17 5238000 198800 490500 950400 7505000 357500 525900 845000 865700 353300 1367000 701300 345100 8060000 11000 170900 96500 229600 874800 83460 62410 16260 22700 745400 321800 13960 105700 52300 337300 144800 69950 86350 174100 139200 134600 154500 118900 142200 109100 22890 245300 31120 56480 9583 218100 33890 88970 482000 179500 105700 39170 184800 162800 32580 219000 844800 75860 164300 97630 168600 19440 8841
2020-10-18 5246000 200500 492100 957000 7565000 361600 529800 848100 868700 355500 1375000 702700 346600 8101000 11340 171800 97300 230100 877300 84260 62660 16310 22820 748900 322900 14040 106500 52770 340000 146300 70230 87130 175100 139700 135100 155200 120200 143500 109400 23580 247300 31820 57060 9663 218800 34090 89450 483200 180900 106200 39460 185900 163600 33220 220600 847400 76870 165200 97850 171100 19610 9054
2020-10-19 5254000 202000 493400 963500 7620000 364800 533700 851800 871800 357800 1383000 703500 348000 8140000 11640 172600 98100 230600 879800 85050 62910 16360 22940 750700 323600 14090 107000 53420 342700 147700 71450 87750 175200 140300 135700 157400 121200 144800 109600 24130 249700 32440 57440 9739 219400 34370 89920 484400 182500 107000 39670 187000 164400 33520 222100 849800 77620 166000 98060 172900 19720 9262
2020-10-20 5274000 203300 494700 970100 7681000 368500 537600 856500 874800 360100 1390000 704600 349400 8186000 11950 173500 98900 231200 882700 85850 63160 16400 23050 753100 324700 14150 107800 54060 344600 149200 71870 88680 175900 140800 136200 159000 122200 146100 110400 24780 251900 33080 58060 9816 220100 34640 90390 485600 183900 108000 39950 188100 165200 33900 223500 855800 78290 166900 98680 175800 19940 9469
2020-10-21 5296000 204600 495700 976700 7744000 372600 541500 860900 877800 362300 1397000 706400 350800 8239000 12210 174400 99700 232000 886300 86660 63410 16450 23170 755500 326200 14240 109200 54840 347300 150400 72790 89880 176300 141300 136700 161000 123400 147400 111100 25560 254100 33880 58910 9893 220800 35100 90860 486900 185700 108800 40280 189200 166100 34810 225000 860700 79170 167700 99040 178600 20150 9697
2020-10-22 5325000 205800 496900 983300 7804000 376800 545400 866600 880800 364600 1405000 708000 352300 8293000 12330 175300 100500 232800 889000 87470 63660 16490 23290 758400 327700 14330 110400 55420 350600 152200 73380 90910 176900 141800 137200 162700 124500 148800 112100 26280 256400 34580 59770 9970 221400 35800 91330 488100 187700 110000 40640 190300 166900 35570 226600 864900 80280 168600 99660 181800 20400 9879

Confirmed count average forecast Europe (bold black line in graphs) 2020-10-16 to 2020-10-22

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
2020-10-15 673622 3867540 60224 191959 27507 20984 149010 352107 34023 921374 12944 818707 23947 22534 41732 46429 381602 203954 149903 93294 168490 102407 10683 24225 16137 71317
2020-10-16 690700 3957000 61560 200400 28400 21390 159700 358000 34420 933400 13190 842400 24370 23140 43050 47390 388100 211700 156600 95000 172300 103200 11290 25860 16280 73100
2020-10-17 706100 4000000 62800 207300 28900 21720 165600 361300 34770 937900 13410 848800 24680 23560 44270 48190 392300 219300 162500 96300 175800 103400 11770 27390 16390 74230
2020-10-18 721300 4036000 63810 214000 29100 22050 169100 364300 35140 942400 13570 855700 24950 23990 45310 48980 395800 226700 167900 97600 178900 103500 12240 28920 16500 75350
2020-10-19 736500 4106000 64800 220300 29640 22290 174200 367900 35500 960000 13750 888000 25260 24420 46380 49780 398300 234100 173100 98900 181400 103600 12600 30520 16610 76730
2020-10-20 752500 4155000 65780 226900 30210 22560 181500 370900 35860 968000 13980 905900 25690 24850 47250 50590 400700 242400 178600 100300 184400 104600 13000 32120 16720 77670
2020-10-21 769100 4198000 66990 234200 30790 22880 190800 374100 36230 978700 14150 923600 26100 25300 48110 51420 403300 251100 185000 101600 188000 104900 13540 33850 16840 78770
2020-10-22 786400 4238000 68130 242100 31340 23220 199800 377700 36600 989200 14370 944500 26560 25760 49030 52250 406100 259100 191400 103000 191500 105300 14080 35690 16960 80510

Confirmed count average forecast (bold black line in graphs) 2020-10-16 to 2020-10-22

DateBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
2020-10-15 5169386 194362 486496 936982 7370468 349160 517835 834910 859740 348698 1346380 698184 342143 7979709 10300 169162 94616 228748 868148 81895 61899 16166 22469 743061 319357 13724 104049 50605 331579 141212 68510 84195 173625 138160 133548 150668 116918 139561 108139 20933 238939 29653 55030 9418 216609 33499 87969 479400 175843 103815 38525 182486 161106 31012 215918 837566 74067 162538 95833 162325 19084 8375
2020-10-16 5187000 197000 488100 943500 7434000 353200 521800 839900 862700 350800 1357000 699700 343700 8040000 10490 170100 95600 229600 870800 82810 62190 16210 22570 745600 321100 13830 105200 51270 334900 142800 69430 85280 174100 138700 134100 152400 118200 141700 109000 21690 241200 30350 55730 9492 217500 33970 88700 480700 177800 105000 38900 183900 162000 31760 217700 841700 75120 163600 96660 165600 19430 8615
2020-10-17 5217000 198700 489700 950400 7496000 357200 524900 844200 865200 353000 1366000 701400 345200 8090000 10680 171100 96400 230200 872400 83650 62380 16250 22690 747500 322400 13910 106200 51860 337600 144400 69910 86360 174100 139100 134700 153900 119600 143400 109700 22400 243500 30960 56420 9563 218200 34380 89330 482100 179000 106100 39240 185100 162900 32410 219300 844700 76110 164500 97170 168400 19640 8763
2020-10-18 5225000 200300 491300 957300 7555000 361200 527900 847900 867700 355200 1373000 702800 346600 8128000 10890 171900 97100 230800 873700 84410 62580 16290 22820 749800 323400 13990 107000 52410 340200 145900 70360 87270 175000 139500 135100 154200 120800 144600 110200 22980 245000 31550 57010 9634 218900 34640 89760 483400 180000 107000 39550 186200 163600 33010 220900 846700 77090 165300 97400 170700 19840 8937
2020-10-19 5232000 201600 492600 964200 7609000 364500 530900 852100 870200 357400 1380000 703900 348100 8165000 11080 172600 97800 231200 874900 85080 63030 16310 22950 751800 324200 14050 107700 52980 342800 147400 71200 88130 175100 139900 135500 155800 121900 145800 110600 23500 246400 32060 57480 9704 219500 34960 90250 484700 181200 108000 39820 187300 164300 33450 222600 848800 77960 166100 97610 172600 20000 9115
2020-10-20 5255000 203800 494100 971100 7667000 368300 533700 857100 872700 359600 1387000 705100 349500 8205000 11280 173400 98600 231800 876400 85860 63300 16340 23080 753900 325300 14120 108500 53560 344800 148800 71720 89180 175600 140200 135900 156900 123000 147100 111300 24050 247900 32620 58100 9776 220300 35240 90680 486000 182200 109100 40120 188400 165100 33920 224200 853900 78770 166800 98170 175300 20230 9270
2020-10-21 5282000 205600 495300 978200 7732000 372500 536500 861600 875200 361800 1393000 706600 351000 8248000 11470 174300 99300 232300 878100 86560 63510 16370 23210 756000 326600 14220 109600 54160 347100 150400 72430 90280 176100 140400 136300 158200 124000 148400 111900 24770 249500 33260 58770 9848 220900 35600 91110 487400 183400 110200 40420 189600 165900 34640 225800 857400 79680 167500 98670 177800 20430 9440
2020-10-22 5315000 207300 496800 985200 7792000 377000 539300 866700 877700 363900 1399000 708100 352400 8294000 11640 175100 100000 232900 879500 87360 63720 16400 23340 758200 327800 14310 110600 54750 349800 152000 73000 91320 176600 140700 136800 159400 125100 149800 112500 25490 251700 33840 59470 9921 221600 36000 91580 488700 184600 111300 40770 190800 166800 35300 227400 860400 80710 168400 99200 180600 20630 9636

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (with Jennie Castle and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting.
[2020-10-10]Temporarily removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.
[2020-06-24] Research presentation on short-term COVID-19 forecasting on 26 June (14:00 UK time) at the Quarterly Forecasting Forum of the IIF UK Chapter.
[2020-06-06] Removed Brazil from yesterday's forecasts (only; last observation 2020-06-05).
[2020-06-04] Data issues with confirmed cases for France.
Added an appendix to the short term paper with further forecast comparisons for European and Latin American countries.
Both Sweden and Iran have lost their peak in confirmed cases. For Sweden the previous peak was on 24 April (daily peak of 656 cases), for Iran it was on 31 March (peak of 3116). For Iran this looks like a second wave, with increasing daily counts for the last four weeks. For Sweden this is a sudden jump in confirmed cases in the last two days, compared to a fairly steady weekly pattern over the previous six weeks.
[2020-05-20] Problem with UK confirmed cases: negative daily count. This makes the forecasts temporarily unreliable.
Updated the second paper.
[2020-05-18] Minor fixes to the improved version of scenario forecasting, backported to 2020-05-13.
[2020-05-13] We now omit countries with fewer than 200 confirmed cases in the last week (25 for deaths).
The short-term paper has some small updates, including further comparisons with other models.
Data for Ecuador are not reliable enough for forecasting.
Switched to an improved version of scenario forecasting.
[2020-05-06] The New York Times is in the process of redefining its US state data. Unfortunately, at the moment only the last observation has changed (e.g New York deaths jumped from 19645 on 2020-05-05 to 25956 a day later). This means the data is currently useless; however it does bring it close to the Johns Hopkins/CSSE count (25626 on 2020-05-06). The aggregate US count is based on JH/CSSE so unaffected. We now use Johns Hopkins/CSSE US state data, including all states with sufficient counts. So the new forecasts cannot be compared to those previously.
A minor change is that we show the graph without scenario forecast if no peak has been detected yet.
[2020-04-29] See our blog entry at the International Institute of Forecasters.
US history of death counts revised in Johns Hopkins/CSSE data.
UK death counts have been revised to include the deaths in care homes. In the Johns Hopkins/CSSE data set, which we use, the entire history has been revised. So forecasts made up to 2020-04-29 cannot be compared to later outcomes. In the ECDC data set only the last observation has changed, causing a jump in the series.
[2020-04-27] Our short-term COVID-19 forecasting paper is now available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06.
A small adjustment has been made to the scenario forecast methodology, and will be documented shortly.
[2020-04-24] A summary of our work on short-term COVID-19 forecasting appeared as a voxeu.
[2020-04-17] Bird and Nielsen look into nowcasting death counts in England.
[2020-04-16] Added scenario forecasts to all graphs now. This would now be the preferred forecast for most.
This is the first time with a peak in confirmed UK cases (also for deaths, but this is uncertain because it is at the same date).
[2020-04-10] Updated documentation with better description of short-term estimates and peak determination.
[2020-04-09] Added table with estimated peak dates (if happened) and dates to and since the peak. Note that this can be a local peak, and subsequent re-acceleration (or data revisions) can result in a new peak later.
[2020-04-08] Minor correction to peak estimates. Added table with scenario forecasts.
[2020-04-06] Added a post hoc estimate of the peak number of cases. This needs at least three confirmed observations (four for deaths) after the event. It is based on the averaged smooth trend, and can change later or be a local peak. It is marked with a vertical line with the date label, or a date with left arrow in the bottom left corner of the graph. This is backported to 2020-04-04.
[2020-04-02] Now including more US States, based on New York Times data.
[2020-03-31] Scenario forecasts, based on what happened in China earlier this year, are presented for several countries (line marked with x). Created more plausible 90% confidence bands (dotted line in same colour).
[2020-03-26] Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, only for Italy.
[2020-03-24] Our forecasts are starting to overestimate in some cases. This was always expected to happen when the increase starts to slow down. Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, but only for Italy and Spain sofar.

Initial visual evaluation of forecasts of Confirmed