COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2020-10-24


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (with Jennie Castle and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting.

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in Europe 2020-10-24

UKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
Peak date (mm-dd) -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --10-20 -- -- -- --10-21 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --03-26 --
Peak daily increment 237 1204 240
Days since peak 4 3 212
Last total 854010 4993906 78029 305409 37562 26780 250797 434798 39411 1046132 14652 1048817 29992 33959 56098 56108 504509 281052 241946 116109 205793 110594 21274 40801 17749 103653
Last daily increment 23012 106549 3614 17709 1043 525 12474 8688 789 0 178 -25 935 2242 1820 847 19640 8651 13628 3669 4761 0 1967 2890 217 0
Last week 131601 880813 13223 83156 8059 4293 76912 66127 4019 109572 1228 205346 4622 8379 9808 6146 90268 52818 66180 16198 25405 7394 8132 10966 1292 29231
Previous peak date04-0603-3103-2604-0807-2203-2804-0103-2704-0703-3004-0404-1204-01 --04-2304-1003-2303-31 --03-3104-0906-19 --04-17 --03-26
Previous peak daily increment 5033 30000 979 1498 249 312 278 5947 342 8092 146 17710 92 97 1117 5673 1079 955 376 1075 54 1209
Low between peaks 5 9

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed 2020-10-24

AustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-VTUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
Peak date (mm-dd)08-0208-04 --06-0608-1309-1509-24 --10-0508-0208-10 --07-1604-14 -- --09-16 --07-0407-20 --07-2407-2410-0207-1707-3008-2708-27 -- -- -- -- --07-1904-1707-2805-22 -- -- --07-24 -- -- --10-1010-0210-08 --07-1904-01 -- -- -- --07-16 -- --09-21 --08-0703-3110-1310-19 -- --
Peak daily increment 483 45354 7362 11286 92138 4252 23071 8364 4291 12483 4816 11557 3552 9258 225 71 423 11222 3329 243 1648 2160 2171 887 48 1273 1312 95 880 1108 9495 1837 16408 1435 39 1233 5855
Days since peak 83 81 140 72 39 30 19 83 75 100 193 38 112 96 92 92 22 99 86 58 58 97 190 88 155 92 14 22 16 97 206 100 33 78 207 11 5
Last total 27513 5380635 216051 500542 1007711 7864811 385980 562705 886800 883116 367819 1487260 714246 359784 8575177 12482 183276 103247 236771 903684 93377 65915 16706 23756 774396 333263 14501 114822 58694 370106 160454 75538 95480 178621 145484 139487 6136 168576 131921 155712 115088 27142 258292 36874 62776 10222 226827 39412 94812 493832 195806 115677 41739 197370 169341 38141 237238 888362 84066 171791 2035 101889 194540 21716 10805
Last daily increment 18 26979 1532 1636 8769 50129 4070 5814 6025 3240 2020 16260 1834 2091 83718 372 2360 1254 890 4885 1828 0 97 160 4469 1731 89 1454 1024 6140 2741 357 1732 0 1105 796 42 3396 2269 2508 1212 639 3292 935 697 124 1829 845 1147 2061 2858 1833 391 1715 792 939 2468 9795 1252 1061 27 918 4062 323 260
Last week 114 156273 15247 8782 48139 314538 24113 32325 35573 17567 11201 96436 10453 12291 420583 1527 10650 6179 5622 27992 8098 3210 336 754 21348 9137 512 7513 5603 26109 12872 5270 7873 3092 5330 3830 199 13776 9329 10371 5082 4321 12264 4896 5112 609 7208 4159 4551 9551 14019 8399 2207 10616 5351 4872 15687 34356 6838 6115 106 4064 28354 1635 1780
Previous peak date03-28 --05-03 -- -- -- --04-01 -- -- --05-11 -- -- -- --07-16 -- -- --07-2404-2005-0104-26 -- -- -- --07-1605-0805-0104-30 --04-02 --05-06 --04-0605-2204-04 -- -- --05-2105-0105-0104-0807-21 -- --04-19 --04-0504-09 --05-09 --07-16 --05-26 --08-01 -- -- --
Previous peak daily increment 360 1992 2957 11222 1805 585 1012 190 197 597 2640 689 332 1518 1017 1782 698 295 76 441 89 4272 292 1040 88 1635 159 9846 1076 1071
Low between peaks 7 688 72 31 50 192 361 142 18 83 3737 479 366

Confirmed count forecast Europe (bold red line in graphs) 2020-10-25 to 2020-10-31

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
2020-10-24 854010 4993906 78029 305409 37562 26780 250797 434798 39411 1046132 14652 1048817 29992 33959 56098 56108 504509 281052 241946 116109 205793 110594 21274 40801 17749 103653
2020-10-25 884000 5138000 79480 323000 38250 26780 266300 434800 40060 1059000 14780 1064000 30710 35790 57430 57100 520100 288700 254600 119300 209700 110600 23320 44440 17750 103700
2020-10-26 913000 5261000 81780 335800 39630 26930 278700 436400 40700 1069000 14910 1081000 31460 37580 58930 58090 534700 297300 267200 122500 213600 110600 25430 45350 17900 111300
2020-10-27 941000 5381000 84390 352400 41050 27130 297100 437800 41340 1081000 15170 1100000 32480 39450 60170 59070 550200 306000 280000 125600 217400 112500 27710 46390 18080 112300
2020-10-28 971000 5492000 87400 370100 42400 27520 319700 437800 41970 1092000 15370 1118000 33340 41340 61430 60050 568000 314600 292800 128800 221200 112600 30030 49130 18260 116000
2020-10-29 1000000 5600000 90400 388200 43960 28120 340400 438000 42610 1104000 15610 1137000 34420 43330 62870 61040 586500 323200 306000 132000 225100 113200 32500 52070 18470 117100
2020-10-30 1027000 5705000 93860 410200 45610 28710 364100 439200 43260 1115000 15800 1157000 35480 45430 64730 62040 606900 333100 319600 135300 229100 113900 35150 55680 18720 120200
2020-10-31 1047000 5809000 96940 433700 46870 29250 381500 446100 43930 1127000 15970 1176000 36310 47630 66890 63050 627500 342000 333600 138700 233100 113900 37980 59690 18880 120400

Confirmed count forecast (bold red line in graphs) 2020-10-25 to 2020-10-31

DateBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
2020-10-24 5380635 216051 500542 1007711 7864811 385980 562705 886800 883116 367819 1487260 714246 359784 8575177 12482 183276 103247 236771 903684 93377 65915 16706 23756 774396 333263 14501 114822 58694 370106 160454 75538 95480 178621 145484 139487 168576 131921 155712 115088 27142 258292 36874 62776 10222 226827 39412 94812 493832 195806 115677 41739 197370 169341 38141 237238 888362 84066 171791 101889 194540 21716 10805
2020-10-25 5389000 218400 502500 1015000 7919000 390500 566700 890800 885900 369900 1500000 715500 361700 8645000 12720 185300 104200 237100 907400 94800 65920 16760 23860 777400 334200 14590 115100 59610 375100 162900 75760 96800 179400 146500 139900 169300 133800 157300 115100 27830 261300 37680 63020 10220 227800 40070 94820 495300 198300 116600 42010 197400 170200 38410 239100 889000 85260 172800 102000 201200 22050 10840
2020-10-26 5407000 220600 504000 1023000 7958000 393600 571400 895500 888600 372000 1511000 716800 363600 8711000 12990 186900 105100 237800 912000 96200 67080 16820 23970 780200 335000 14620 115800 60510 379800 165200 77090 98000 179600 147600 140400 172100 135400 158500 115600 28350 263400 38470 63720 10320 228800 40600 95430 496700 200300 117700 42330 198700 170800 38740 242000 892100 86420 173800 102300 206100 22300 11060
2020-10-27 5429000 222900 505300 1030000 8003000 397100 576500 900800 891200 374000 1520000 717800 365500 8777000 13220 188700 106000 238700 916800 97600 67460 16880 24070 783100 336300 14700 116900 61420 384600 167600 77750 99200 180200 148700 140900 173900 136600 159500 116400 29040 265700 39260 64350 10400 229700 41170 96040 498100 202300 119400 42670 200200 171600 39250 243500 897700 87610 174700 102700 210700 22590 11250
2020-10-28 5455000 225100 506500 1037000 8054000 401200 581900 906000 893700 376100 1528000 719700 367400 8841000 13450 190300 106800 239600 921000 99000 67750 16930 24180 785900 337700 14780 118000 62310 389200 169900 78910 100500 180800 149500 141400 175600 137800 161600 117200 29800 268200 40060 65280 10460 230600 41870 96540 499500 204400 120800 43000 201400 172400 39870 245500 903800 88780 175700 103300 215300 22870 11510
2020-10-29 5479000 227400 507900 1044000 8102000 405400 586900 912800 896300 378100 1536000 721500 369300 8906000 13660 191900 107600 240500 925500 100400 68100 16980 24280 788700 339300 14870 119400 63220 394000 172300 79530 101700 181500 150500 142100 177500 139200 163400 118100 30540 271400 40880 66090 10540 231400 42460 97190 500900 206400 122400 43330 203000 173400 40700 246900 906700 89970 176600 103900 219700 23220 11730
2020-10-30 5505000 229600 509600 1051000 8149000 409400 592500 919100 898900 380200 1544000 723300 371100 8971000 13950 193500 108400 241400 929400 101800 68800 17040 24380 791400 341300 14980 120900 64150 398700 174600 80660 103000 182100 151700 142800 179100 141100 165400 118900 31360 274300 41710 67160 10650 232300 43130 98020 502200 208300 123900 43670 204900 174500 41670 249700 913300 91170 177600 104500 224700 23670 12100
2020-10-31 5532000 231900 511100 1058000 8198000 413300 597700 924200 901400 382300 1553000 725200 373000 9037000 14310 195100 109200 242200 933100 103200 68800 17090 24490 794200 342800 15060 122100 65090 403600 177100 81020 104300 182100 152500 143500 181100 143300 168200 119900 32090 276900 42560 67860 10760 233200 43820 99030 503600 210100 125600 44000 206700 175300 42720 251500 920400 92390 178500 105200 227900 23990 12370

Confirmed count average forecast Europe (bold black line in graphs) 2020-10-25 to 2020-10-31

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
2020-10-24 854010 4993906 78029 305409 37562 26780 250797 434798 39411 1046132 14652 1048817 29992 33959 56098 56108 504509 281052 241946 116109 205793 110594 21274 40801 17749 103653
2020-10-25 879000 5117000 80610 322900 38300 27610 258300 443900 40130 1057000 14810 1068000 30700 35730 57840 57110 520700 290600 254700 119200 210100 111100 22990 43440 17920 107400
2020-10-26 900000 5252000 82350 338200 39560 28120 268900 452500 40730 1072000 14940 1104000 31280 37040 59420 58280 530500 299600 266500 121900 213400 111400 24240 45530 18080 113200
2020-10-27 923000 5358000 84250 354600 40970 28690 284800 460700 41320 1084000 15130 1128000 32000 38390 60720 59460 540100 308900 279000 124600 217300 112800 25710 47740 18230 116700
2020-10-28 948000 5471000 86370 371800 42350 29420 304500 468000 41920 1095000 15290 1155000 32750 39770 62130 60660 551500 318300 292900 127400 222100 113300 27640 50260 18390 121400
2020-10-29 969000 5567000 88640 389800 43660 30280 323300 474400 42520 1107000 15440 1193000 33500 41200 63820 61880 563300 328000 307900 130200 226900 114000 29610 52920 18550 125200
2020-10-30 991000 5680000 90810 409200 45250 30980 345900 481000 43140 1119000 15590 1224000 34220 42710 65500 63120 573600 338800 322900 133000 231800 114600 31700 55810 18710 129700
2020-10-31 1011000 5766000 93040 429700 46300 31610 363400 489600 43760 1129000 15750 1247000 34850 44260 67420 64390 583900 348900 340600 136000 237000 114900 33890 58900 18850 132700

Confirmed count average forecast (bold black line in graphs) 2020-10-25 to 2020-10-31

DateBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
2020-10-24 5380635 216051 500542 1007711 7864811 385980 562705 886800 883116 367819 1487260 714246 359784 8575177 12482 183276 103247 236771 903684 93377 65915 16706 23756 774396 333263 14501 114822 58694 370106 160454 75538 95480 178621 145484 139487 168576 131921 155712 115088 27142 258292 36874 62776 10222 226827 39412 94812 493832 195806 115677 41739 197370 169341 38141 237238 888362 84066 171791 101889 194540 21716 10805
2020-10-25 5385000 218500 502200 1016000 7912000 390000 567600 891200 885600 369700 1500000 716000 361800 8642000 12770 185100 104300 237600 907100 94700 66120 16760 23890 778300 334600 14580 115900 59650 374900 162800 76150 96800 179600 146400 140000 169300 133700 157600 115600 27880 260500 37730 63580 10300 228000 40040 95510 495500 197900 116900 42140 198900 170100 38910 240000 893400 85220 172800 102300 197400 22000 11080
2020-10-26 5404000 220800 503500 1023000 7953000 393200 572100 895600 888000 371600 1510000 717400 363600 8700000 13010 186200 105100 238300 909200 95800 66870 16790 24010 781000 335600 14630 116700 60490 378900 164700 77100 98000 179800 147000 140500 171400 135300 159200 116200 28490 262000 38490 64340 10380 228900 40590 96100 496800 199600 118000 42460 200400 170900 39500 242500 896100 86250 173700 102600 201700 22230 11350
2020-10-27 5426000 223000 504600 1030000 8000000 396800 576700 900400 890300 373500 1520000 718700 365400 8760000 13250 187400 105900 239200 911500 97000 67230 16830 24120 784000 336900 14710 117800 61350 383000 166700 77820 99100 180400 147500 140900 173000 136700 160800 117000 29200 263600 39460 65080 10460 229900 41160 96700 498200 201400 119300 42820 202000 171700 40130 244500 900700 87230 174600 103000 205200 22500 11580
2020-10-28 5452000 225200 505700 1037000 8050000 400800 581600 905400 892500 375400 1528000 720500 367200 8820000 13480 188500 106700 240000 913500 98100 67580 16860 24230 786800 338300 14780 118900 62210 387200 168800 78730 100300 180900 147900 141300 174700 138000 162700 117700 29940 265200 40190 65950 10530 230800 41800 97260 499600 203300 120500 43170 203500 172500 40840 246700 906000 88270 175400 103500 208400 22750 11870
2020-10-29 5476000 227400 506700 1044000 8098000 405100 586300 911300 895100 377300 1536000 722100 369000 8881000 13720 189700 107500 240900 915600 99300 67910 16900 24350 789900 339700 14870 120000 63080 391400 170900 79450 101500 181500 148400 141900 176400 139500 164700 118500 30810 267600 41070 66710 10610 231700 42420 97880 500900 205100 121800 43470 205100 173500 41720 248800 908600 89460 176300 104000 211900 23040 12130
2020-10-30 5499000 229700 508200 1052000 8147000 409300 591000 916500 897000 379100 1544000 723800 370900 8944000 13970 191300 108300 241600 917500 100600 68350 16940 24460 792800 341300 14960 121300 63970 395900 173200 80320 102700 182000 148800 142500 178100 141200 166700 119300 31690 270000 42060 67640 10700 232600 43020 98550 502300 206900 123100 43850 206800 174400 42600 251100 913500 90610 177100 104500 216100 23440 12460
2020-10-31 5527000 231600 509600 1059000 8196000 413500 595300 922000 899400 381000 1553000 725500 372700 9004000 14240 192400 109100 242500 919300 101900 68560 16990 24580 795400 342800 15040 122300 64880 400200 175500 80970 104000 182000 149100 143000 180100 143100 168800 120100 32550 272200 43080 68370 10780 233600 43680 99290 503700 208800 124400 44270 208400 175400 43500 253200 917700 91730 178000 105000 218600 23710 12670

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (with Jennie Castle and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting.
[2020-10-10]Temporarily removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.
[2020-06-24] Research presentation on short-term COVID-19 forecasting on 26 June (14:00 UK time) at the Quarterly Forecasting Forum of the IIF UK Chapter.
[2020-06-06] Removed Brazil from yesterday's forecasts (only; last observation 2020-06-05).
[2020-06-04] Data issues with confirmed cases for France.
Added an appendix to the short term paper with further forecast comparisons for European and Latin American countries.
Both Sweden and Iran have lost their peak in confirmed cases. For Sweden the previous peak was on 24 April (daily peak of 656 cases), for Iran it was on 31 March (peak of 3116). For Iran this looks like a second wave, with increasing daily counts for the last four weeks. For Sweden this is a sudden jump in confirmed cases in the last two days, compared to a fairly steady weekly pattern over the previous six weeks.
[2020-05-20] Problem with UK confirmed cases: negative daily count. This makes the forecasts temporarily unreliable.
Updated the second paper.
[2020-05-18] Minor fixes to the improved version of scenario forecasting, backported to 2020-05-13.
[2020-05-13] We now omit countries with fewer than 200 confirmed cases in the last week (25 for deaths).
The short-term paper has some small updates, including further comparisons with other models.
Data for Ecuador are not reliable enough for forecasting.
Switched to an improved version of scenario forecasting.
[2020-05-06] The New York Times is in the process of redefining its US state data. Unfortunately, at the moment only the last observation has changed (e.g New York deaths jumped from 19645 on 2020-05-05 to 25956 a day later). This means the data is currently useless; however it does bring it close to the Johns Hopkins/CSSE count (25626 on 2020-05-06). The aggregate US count is based on JH/CSSE so unaffected. We now use Johns Hopkins/CSSE US state data, including all states with sufficient counts. So the new forecasts cannot be compared to those previously.
A minor change is that we show the graph without scenario forecast if no peak has been detected yet.
[2020-04-29] See our blog entry at the International Institute of Forecasters.
US history of death counts revised in Johns Hopkins/CSSE data.
UK death counts have been revised to include the deaths in care homes. In the Johns Hopkins/CSSE data set, which we use, the entire history has been revised. So forecasts made up to 2020-04-29 cannot be compared to later outcomes. In the ECDC data set only the last observation has changed, causing a jump in the series.
[2020-04-27] Our short-term COVID-19 forecasting paper is now available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06.
A small adjustment has been made to the scenario forecast methodology, and will be documented shortly.
[2020-04-24] A summary of our work on short-term COVID-19 forecasting appeared as a voxeu.
[2020-04-17] Bird and Nielsen look into nowcasting death counts in England.
[2020-04-16] Added scenario forecasts to all graphs now. This would now be the preferred forecast for most.
This is the first time with a peak in confirmed UK cases (also for deaths, but this is uncertain because it is at the same date).
[2020-04-10] Updated documentation with better description of short-term estimates and peak determination.
[2020-04-09] Added table with estimated peak dates (if happened) and dates to and since the peak. Note that this can be a local peak, and subsequent re-acceleration (or data revisions) can result in a new peak later.
[2020-04-08] Minor correction to peak estimates. Added table with scenario forecasts.
[2020-04-06] Added a post hoc estimate of the peak number of cases. This needs at least three confirmed observations (four for deaths) after the event. It is based on the averaged smooth trend, and can change later or be a local peak. It is marked with a vertical line with the date label, or a date with left arrow in the bottom left corner of the graph. This is backported to 2020-04-04.
[2020-04-02] Now including more US States, based on New York Times data.
[2020-03-31] Scenario forecasts, based on what happened in China earlier this year, are presented for several countries (line marked with x). Created more plausible 90% confidence bands (dotted line in same colour).
[2020-03-26] Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, only for Italy.
[2020-03-24] Our forecasts are starting to overestimate in some cases. This was always expected to happen when the increase starts to slow down. Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, but only for Italy and Spain sofar.

Initial visual evaluation of forecasts of Confirmed