COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2020-11-04


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (with Jennie Castle and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting.

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in Europe 2020-11-04

UKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
Peak date (mm-dd)10-29 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --10-13 -- -- -- --10-19 --10-30 -- -- -- -- --10-30 -- --
Peak daily increment 23976 211 1031 10015 2791
Days since peak 6 22 16 5 5
Last total 1099059 7146444 125099 468213 64591 43769 378716 608611 50530 1284408 16930 1547831 46892 56567 90988 63483 790377 383523 439536 156940 267088 137730 39408 66772 22578 192376
Last daily increment 25177 328006 6901 15672 4054 1557 15731 31480 936 25042 293 128536 2646 2480 4219 435 30548 7633 24692 7497 8651 3198 2026 3216 622 10073
Last week 133719 1207057 31150 75955 16441 9654 68648 110257 6496 124325 1364 259353 11382 12792 22861 3186 173782 53268 120331 24324 38048 16563 8703 15044 3014 47332
Previous peak date04-0703-3103-2604-0807-2203-2804-0303-2704-0703-3004-0404-1204-01 --04-2304-1003-2303-31 --03-3104-0906-17 -- --03-2603-26
Previous peak daily increment 4730 30009 979 1498 249 312 283 5952 306 8092 146 19306 92 97 1117 5606 1079 955 376 1174 268 1209
Low between peaks 424 5 9 60

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed 2020-11-04

AustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-VTUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
Peak date (mm-dd)08-0208-04 --06-0608-1309-1509-24 --10-0508-0208-10 --07-1604-14 -- --09-16 --07-0407-20 -- --07-2410-0207-1707-3008-27 -- -- -- -- -- --07-1910-04 -- -- -- -- --07-24 -- -- -- -- --10-08 --07-1910-05 -- -- -- --07-16 --10-2509-21 --08-0703-3110-13 -- -- --
Peak daily increment 483 45353 7361 11286 92126 4233 22315 8364 4291 12483 4816 11557 3552 9257 71 417 11222 3329 243 2160 576 1273 864 1108 1412 1837 2528 16429 1417 39 1211
Days since peak 94 92 151 83 50 41 30 94 86 111 204 49 123 107 103 33 110 97 69 108 31 103 27 108 30 111 10 44 89 218 22
Last total 27630 5590025 250698 515042 1108086 8364086 421731 646164 943630 911787 388137 1680579 730548 384509 9485448 17787 197777 114208 250632 950920 117614 75134 17601 25442 819259 349497 15379 137114 68314 437490 191764 88363 113009 184837 158292 148766 7071 204354 160692 180361 122275 35955 282802 48301 75265 11529 244688 48393 104093 515815 230209 127753 47049 222883 180870 49791 262875 959811 98306 185836 2258 110996 244002 25988 15044
Last daily increment 8 23976 2782 840 8694 50210 3356 8452 5225 9284 976 19483 1712 2391 102831 410 1848 1427 814 5519 2928 476 77 107 4458 2024 150 2854 1291 7526 3698 2073 1630 374 1580 1000 146 4251 3840 2658 766 796 2426 1114 1791 117 2413 983 1068 2126 4071 1243 589 2809 918 937 3426 9509 1533 1157 30 1358 5936 392 425
Last week 51 95649 19315 7992 54964 275235 17683 49223 30819 16859 11202 110133 8778 13677 540491 2325 8628 6581 8152 27272 15623 4843 527 980 26462 9378 538 14170 5568 42102 19034 8227 9704 3319 7098 5379 605 21734 18619 17237 3688 5102 13782 7171 7610 779 10665 5201 5541 12639 21272 7563 3256 14796 6279 6791 12503 41090 8415 7653 125 5858 29007 2522 2537
Previous peak date03-28 --04-22 -- -- -- --04-01 -- -- --05-11 -- -- -- --07-16 -- -- --07-2404-2105-0104-26 -- -- --08-2707-1605-0805-0104-30 --04-0204-1705-0505-2204-0605-22 -- -- -- --05-2105-0105-0204-0807-21 --04-0104-19 -- --04-09 --05-0906-0207-16 --05-26 --08-01 --05-27 --
Previous peak daily increment 360 1790 2957 11218 1805 585 949 190 197 1703 597 2639 689 332 1518 2171 1015 50 1782 698 76 493 89 4272 292 9495 1040 1635 159 1063 9846 1076 1071 50
Low between peaks 7 688 31 50 192 -15 83 620 467 3737 479 366

Confirmed count forecast Europe (bold red line in graphs) 2020-11-05 to 2020-11-11

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
2020-11-04 1099059 7146444 125099 468213 64591 43769 378716 608611 50530 1284408 16930 1547831 46892 56567 90988 63483 790377 383523 439536 156940 267088 137730 39408 66772 22578 192376
2020-11-05 1122000 7427000 132600 492000 69120 46060 396200 608600 51560 1314000 17130 1578000 49510 60970 94300 64230 810500 395100 479200 162300 272300 139400 41750 66770 22850 218500
2020-11-06 1144000 7677000 140200 516600 73390 48090 412600 626800 52560 1340000 17320 1612000 51880 65460 98700 65000 840800 405600 507200 167200 279500 142800 43360 69730 23440 232600
2020-11-07 1166000 7915000 148000 542200 76020 49230 426300 638000 53560 1366000 17510 1648000 54580 70390 103700 65740 872200 414900 534000 172200 286200 143300 45060 72250 23780 232600
2020-11-08 1188000 8141000 156100 569000 77220 51130 435600 651400 54550 1392000 17700 1684000 56820 75510 108900 66510 901900 424100 552900 177100 291800 143300 46530 74700 24080 232600
2020-11-09 1211000 8362000 164700 597100 80540 54480 449000 671400 55540 1418000 17890 1720000 59060 80970 113600 67290 927200 432800 573700 182200 296400 143300 47400 76910 24540 256300
2020-11-10 1233000 8581000 173700 626700 85170 56580 464600 677700 56550 1445000 18070 1756000 61850 86800 118300 68070 956700 441400 594300 187500 304000 151700 48710 78650 25050 261000
2020-11-11 1256000 8800000 183200 657800 90300 58590 479500 697000 57560 1473000 18260 1793000 65070 93040 123200 68860 986300 449400 622000 192900 312800 152700 50950 81500 25770 269400

Confirmed count forecast (bold red line in graphs) 2020-11-05 to 2020-11-11

DateBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
2020-11-04 5590025 250698 515042 1108086 8364086 421731 646164 943630 911787 388137 1680579 730548 384509 9485448 17787 197777 114208 250632 950920 117614 75134 17601 25442 819259 349497 15379 137114 68314 437490 191764 88363 113009 184837 158292 148766 7071 204354 160692 180361 122275 35955 282802 48301 75265 11529 244688 48393 104093 515815 230209 127753 47049 222883 180870 49791 262875 959811 98306 185836 110996 244002 25988 15044
2020-11-05 5627000 252600 516700 1116000 8413000 425000 654600 951100 911900 389900 1696000 732700 386700 9583000 18190 199300 115600 250600 956900 120400 75170 17670 25580 820900 350600 15420 141200 69320 445200 196000 89020 114500 185500 159300 149900 7187 207900 162900 180400 123400 36720 285600 49000 76420 11630 246300 49490 104900 517800 233900 128700 47050 225800 181800 51050 265200 966000 99700 187000 111000 244300 26330 15560
2020-11-06 5650000 254600 518200 1125000 8457000 427500 661500 957400 914400 391600 1708000 734400 388900 9677000 18590 200700 117100 251200 962300 123200 76060 17740 25720 826000 352200 15510 145000 70300 453500 199800 91030 115900 185900 160600 150900 7292 211700 166300 184200 124200 37460 288400 50320 77590 11730 247900 50600 105700 519700 238000 130000 47610 228600 182800 52630 267400 972000 101600 188000 111900 248900 26640 16160
2020-11-07 5669000 256400 519700 1133000 8500000 430100 667000 963500 916700 393400 1719000 736100 391000 9771000 18990 202000 118500 252100 967400 126000 76120 17800 25850 828800 354200 15580 148700 71280 462300 204000 91830 117400 185900 161700 151900 7394 216300 169400 186900 125000 38200 291300 51630 78800 11830 249500 51400 106400 521600 241500 131300 48070 231400 183700 54020 269600 978000 103100 189100 112800 253300 26970 16430
2020-11-08 5676000 257900 521100 1141000 8542000 432800 671300 968000 919000 395100 1729000 737400 393100 9863000 19400 203400 119700 252900 972000 128800 76120 17870 25990 832700 355300 15660 151600 72250 470200 207100 92450 118800 187000 162700 152900 7488 216500 171600 188700 125200 38940 293600 52690 80000 11930 251000 52140 107200 523500 244800 132400 48510 234100 184600 55270 271800 983000 104500 190200 113400 256900 27290 16820
2020-11-09 5686000 259300 522300 1149000 8579000 435600 675300 971500 921300 396800 1739000 738200 395300 9956000 19810 204700 120400 253100 976500 131700 78160 17930 26120 836200 356100 15720 153600 73230 477300 210500 94300 120300 187200 163600 153900 7580 223600 174100 190700 125700 39670 295000 53560 81230 12030 252600 53040 107900 525300 247900 133300 49030 236800 185600 55990 274100 989000 105500 191200 114400 260900 27610 17290
2020-11-10 5700000 260500 523200 1157000 8620000 438100 679200 976800 923500 398600 1749000 739100 397400 10049000 20240 206100 121400 253900 982000 134600 79100 18000 26260 840600 357500 15790 155900 74220 484800 213700 95420 121800 188200 164500 154900 7671 227300 177000 192400 126200 40420 297300 54720 82480 12120 254200 54090 108700 527200 251800 134500 49450 239600 186500 57030 276300 995000 106700 192300 115000 266300 27930 17690
2020-11-11 5724000 261700 524000 1165000 8667000 441100 683100 981800 925800 400300 1759000 740800 399500 10144000 20670 207500 122600 254700 986300 137600 79450 18060 26400 844100 359300 15900 157900 75230 491600 217100 97240 123300 188500 165800 155900 7761 231700 179700 194800 127000 41170 299600 55820 83750 12220 255700 55070 109400 529100 255600 135600 49910 242300 187400 57900 278500 1000000 108200 193400 116100 270900 28250 18080

Confirmed count average forecast Europe (bold black line in graphs) 2020-11-05 to 2020-11-11

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
2020-11-04 1099059 7146444 125099 468213 64591 43769 378716 608611 50530 1284408 16930 1547831 46892 56567 90988 63483 790377 383523 439536 156940 267088 137730 39408 66772 22578 192376
2020-11-05 1121000 7375000 131100 483500 68370 46140 391000 624600 51620 1308000 17140 1600000 48960 59110 94600 64020 819700 392300 465000 161600 274500 142500 41350 69250 23120 204500
2020-11-06 1143000 7573000 137300 502400 72180 48030 404900 638400 52680 1328000 17300 1640000 50970 62170 98400 64700 850500 402100 491300 165500 281300 145500 43470 72100 23600 216300
2020-11-07 1165000 7737000 143300 521100 74420 49370 417100 650500 53760 1345000 17460 1673000 53230 65410 102700 65380 880900 411400 519400 169500 287700 146500 45700 74840 24050 224200
2020-11-08 1188000 7913000 149300 537800 75500 50890 424800 663400 54850 1362000 17600 1712000 55210 68810 107100 66070 909900 420800 545000 173600 293300 147200 47880 77760 24500 232600
2020-11-09 1210000 8090000 154400 558500 78530 53840 439300 677500 55950 1382000 17730 1753000 56860 72400 111000 66770 932400 430700 571200 177700 298100 147500 49890 80620 24980 247500
2020-11-10 1234000 8234000 160200 579000 83140 56130 456400 689500 57090 1401000 17870 1787000 58940 76210 114800 67480 961400 440400 601600 182000 304700 153200 52290 83220 25470 259300
2020-11-11 1259000 8440000 166500 601600 87660 58630 473200 702600 58240 1419000 18020 1838000 61360 80240 118700 68190 992300 450400 636700 186400 311900 153900 55170 86130 26000 273500

Confirmed count average forecast (bold black line in graphs) 2020-11-05 to 2020-11-11

DateBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
2020-11-04 5590025 250698 515042 1108086 8364086 421731 646164 943630 911787 388137 1680579 730548 384509 9485448 17787 197777 114208 250632 950920 117614 75134 17601 25442 819259 349497 15379 137114 68314 437490 191764 88363 113009 184837 158292 148766 7071 204354 160692 180361 122275 35955 282802 48301 75265 11529 244688 48393 104093 515815 230209 127753 47049 222883 180870 49791 262875 959811 98306 185836 110996 244002 25988 15044
2020-11-05 5611000 253600 516300 1116000 8409000 424800 654900 949400 914400 389600 1696000 732200 386800 9579000 18190 199300 115400 251600 955100 120200 76070 17680 25570 823200 351200 15470 139700 69390 444500 195300 89600 114600 185300 159400 149700 7181 208500 164000 182300 123100 36930 285600 49520 76650 11650 246500 49400 105200 517800 233900 129000 47510 225600 182000 50830 265500 966100 99700 187200 111800 248800 26350 15480
2020-11-06 5634000 256400 517800 1125000 8448000 427400 662900 955100 916300 391200 1708000 733800 389000 9668000 18590 200700 116500 252700 957000 122600 76810 17730 25720 827200 352700 15560 142100 70310 451100 198400 90950 116200 185700 160400 150500 7254 211500 166900 185200 123800 37860 288000 50840 77830 11760 248100 50320 106100 519800 237100 130200 47980 228100 182900 52110 267700 971400 101200 188300 112500 253200 26730 16080
2020-11-07 5652000 258100 519300 1134000 8487000 430200 670400 960600 918200 392700 1718000 735300 391100 9754000 19010 202200 117600 253900 959000 125300 77290 17810 25860 830900 354500 15620 144400 71240 457900 201700 91890 117800 185800 161300 151300 7324 215300 169700 187600 124600 38680 290700 52170 78960 11880 249600 51100 107100 521800 239900 131400 48430 230400 183900 53330 269900 977300 102600 189400 113200 257300 27090 16360
2020-11-08 5659000 260300 520800 1142000 8524000 432800 677600 965200 920000 394200 1728000 736700 393300 9830000 19430 203500 118600 255000 960800 127800 77740 17860 26010 834700 355700 15700 146300 72170 464500 204700 92750 119300 186600 162100 152000 7386 216100 172300 189700 125000 39430 292600 53340 80080 11990 251200 51830 107900 523800 242600 132500 48880 232500 185000 54510 272100 981300 103900 190400 113700 260500 27420 16760
2020-11-09 5670000 262700 522100 1151000 8554000 435900 684900 969400 921800 395700 1738000 737800 395500 9911000 19840 204700 119200 256000 962400 130300 78990 17900 26150 838500 356700 15770 147800 73120 470700 207900 94020 120700 186800 162900 152600 7452 220800 174800 191600 125600 40110 293600 54340 81240 12090 252700 52580 108500 525800 245000 133500 49330 235000 185800 55340 274400 985700 105100 191300 114300 264100 27820 17270
2020-11-10 5691000 265200 523100 1160000 8589000 438600 692800 974800 923700 397200 1748000 739100 397700 9994000 20260 205900 120100 257100 964300 132600 79650 17950 26300 842400 358000 15840 149300 74090 477000 211000 95100 122400 187500 163600 153300 7520 223100 177500 193400 126300 40900 295500 55540 82380 12200 254300 53370 109200 527800 247700 134700 49780 237500 186700 56460 276600 991000 106400 192200 114700 269000 28190 17730
2020-11-11 5720000 267300 524000 1169000 8627000 441800 700300 980200 925600 398700 1757000 740800 399900 10076000 20700 207200 121000 258300 965800 134900 80160 17990 26440 846200 359500 15920 150900 75070 482900 214300 96360 123900 187900 164500 153900 7581 226400 180000 195400 127100 41670 297500 56560 83620 12320 255900 54170 109900 529800 250400 135800 50190 239900 187700 57590 279000 996800 107800 193100 115200 272600 28550 18220

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (with Jennie Castle and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting.
[2020-10-10]Temporarily removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.
[2020-06-24] Research presentation on short-term COVID-19 forecasting on 26 June (14:00 UK time) at the Quarterly Forecasting Forum of the IIF UK Chapter.
[2020-06-06] Removed Brazil from yesterday's forecasts (only; last observation 2020-06-05).
[2020-06-04] Data issues with confirmed cases for France.
Added an appendix to the short term paper with further forecast comparisons for European and Latin American countries.
Both Sweden and Iran have lost their peak in confirmed cases. For Sweden the previous peak was on 24 April (daily peak of 656 cases), for Iran it was on 31 March (peak of 3116). For Iran this looks like a second wave, with increasing daily counts for the last four weeks. For Sweden this is a sudden jump in confirmed cases in the last two days, compared to a fairly steady weekly pattern over the previous six weeks.
[2020-05-20] Problem with UK confirmed cases: negative daily count. This makes the forecasts temporarily unreliable.
Updated the second paper.
[2020-05-18] Minor fixes to the improved version of scenario forecasting, backported to 2020-05-13.
[2020-05-13] We now omit countries with fewer than 200 confirmed cases in the last week (25 for deaths).
The short-term paper has some small updates, including further comparisons with other models.
Data for Ecuador are not reliable enough for forecasting.
Switched to an improved version of scenario forecasting.
[2020-05-06] The New York Times is in the process of redefining its US state data. Unfortunately, at the moment only the last observation has changed (e.g New York deaths jumped from 19645 on 2020-05-05 to 25956 a day later). This means the data is currently useless; however it does bring it close to the Johns Hopkins/CSSE count (25626 on 2020-05-06). The aggregate US count is based on JH/CSSE so unaffected. We now use Johns Hopkins/CSSE US state data, including all states with sufficient counts. So the new forecasts cannot be compared to those previously.
A minor change is that we show the graph without scenario forecast if no peak has been detected yet.
[2020-04-29] See our blog entry at the International Institute of Forecasters.
US history of death counts revised in Johns Hopkins/CSSE data.
UK death counts have been revised to include the deaths in care homes. In the Johns Hopkins/CSSE data set, which we use, the entire history has been revised. So forecasts made up to 2020-04-29 cannot be compared to later outcomes. In the ECDC data set only the last observation has changed, causing a jump in the series.
[2020-04-27] Our short-term COVID-19 forecasting paper is now available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06.
A small adjustment has been made to the scenario forecast methodology, and will be documented shortly.
[2020-04-24] A summary of our work on short-term COVID-19 forecasting appeared as a voxeu.
[2020-04-17] Bird and Nielsen look into nowcasting death counts in England.
[2020-04-16] Added scenario forecasts to all graphs now. This would now be the preferred forecast for most.
This is the first time with a peak in confirmed UK cases (also for deaths, but this is uncertain because it is at the same date).
[2020-04-10] Updated documentation with better description of short-term estimates and peak determination.
[2020-04-09] Added table with estimated peak dates (if happened) and dates to and since the peak. Note that this can be a local peak, and subsequent re-acceleration (or data revisions) can result in a new peak later.
[2020-04-08] Minor correction to peak estimates. Added table with scenario forecasts.
[2020-04-06] Added a post hoc estimate of the peak number of cases. This needs at least three confirmed observations (four for deaths) after the event. It is based on the averaged smooth trend, and can change later or be a local peak. It is marked with a vertical line with the date label, or a date with left arrow in the bottom left corner of the graph. This is backported to 2020-04-04.
[2020-04-02] Now including more US States, based on New York Times data.
[2020-03-31] Scenario forecasts, based on what happened in China earlier this year, are presented for several countries (line marked with x). Created more plausible 90% confidence bands (dotted line in same colour).
[2020-03-26] Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, only for Italy.
[2020-03-24] Our forecasts are starting to overestimate in some cases. This was always expected to happen when the increase starts to slow down. Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, but only for Italy and Spain sofar.

Initial visual evaluation of forecasts of Confirmed