COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2020-11-16


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (with Jennie Castle and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting.

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in Europe 2020-11-16

UKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
Peak date (mm-dd) --11-1011-1210-28 -- --10-2911-12 --11-11 --11-08 -- -- --10-18 --10-2611-10 -- -- --10-2810-3011-12 --
Peak daily increment 216833 8039 15878 12176 20365 22083 47121 1096 9413 26777 1711 2372 635
Days since peak 6 4 19 18 4 5 8 29 21 6 19 17 4
Last total 1390681 9481705 208613 537871 101770 71015 465523 817526 63331 1496864 19419 1992552 76403 85519 147456 68356 1205881 452701 733788 225672 365212 177355 55544 87276 28434 269974
Last daily increment 21363 159497 4657 1932 3519 2689 5407 14580 1195 38273 104 9072 2198 1313 6495 453 27352 4830 20816 8371 4931 0 502 509 0 12839
Last week 156906 1101587 43747 30396 18404 14088 35643 101833 6373 115646 1312 160710 15833 15276 28538 2467 210418 33289 140196 38435 50917 15115 8827 10153 2547 34772
Previous peak date04-0704-0203-2604-1507-2203-2704-0303-2704-0703-3004-0404-1203-31 --04-2304-1003-2303-31 --03-3104-0906-19 -- --03-2603-24
Previous peak daily increment 4730 29682 808 1470 238 280 283 5663 342 8061 146 19305 83 97 1117 5605 1079 955 376 1075 240 1116
Low between peaks 3460 27 79 47 318 -6217 251 9 60 7

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed 2020-11-16

AustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-VTUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
Peak date (mm-dd)08-0208-04 --06-0608-1309-1509-24 --10-0508-0208-10 --07-1604-14 -- --09-16 --11-0607-2011-13 --07-24 --07-1711-0308-2711-13 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --11-13 -- -- --07-24 -- -- -- -- --10-08 -- --10-10 -- -- -- --07-16 -- --09-21 -- -- -- --10-19 --11-13
Peak daily increment 483 45354 7362 11286 92136 4233 23280 8364 4291 12483 4816 11557 1694 9260 5553 71 11222 26606 245 5118 194 1273 878 1419 1837 16429 12744 979
Days since peak 106 104 163 95 62 53 42 106 98 123 216 61 10 119 3 115 122 13 81 3 3 115 39 37 123 56 28 3
Last total 27758 5876464 305449 532604 1205217 8873541 470648 775121 1009396 937011 409574 1932711 752269 417594 11195388 24293 219232 132169 276912 1041690 167690 92863 19064 29105 887751 407008 16711 189052 83342 585012 256744 124687 139097 204734 183609 167656 9114 278657 230678 229355 134898 48027 314206 64885 100782 14740 280824 63186 122099 563690 305364 156782 57646 275235 196617 66278 308648 1066918 124715 204637 3000 131107 334562 34460 23193
Last daily increment 9 13371 6027 1331 6471 28414 3535 13053 2874 2112 1736 22562 1245 3316 158453 583 1410 1295 1476 9595 4296 4597 87 397 4646 1107 92 3277 1099 11643 5147 7123 1511 10365 1949 1726 173 12894 7489 3897 589 869 1972 1089 3418 344 2234 1247 1916 3490 7268 2711 766 6539 1110 897 7009 7165 1500 2677 121 1490 4638 801 699
Last week 87 177459 28970 8697 49861 237530 26300 71833 30865 13484 9825 129949 12015 18234 939294 3545 12665 9781 13779 52258 29286 10167 891 2086 37604 13920 518 25507 7915 73912 37406 19083 14451 15357 14392 10947 1061 42188 41235 26199 6760 6876 16764 8533 13750 1901 20992 7756 9795 27545 43882 16687 5737 31189 8879 8944 26862 56554 13895 9725 547 11512 40750 5144 3951
Previous peak date03-28 --04-22 -- -- -- --04-01 -- -- --05-11 -- -- -- --07-16 --07-04 --04-2404-1705-0104-26 --07-30 --08-2709-0905-0805-0104-30 --07-2004-1705-1905-2204-0305-2204-04 -- -- -- --05-0105-0104-0807-2107-2304-0104-19 --04-0504-09 --05-09 --07-16 --05-26 --08-01 -- -- --
Previous peak daily increment 360 1791 2957 11218 1805 3552 729 993 190 197 3329 1648 1025 2639 689 332 2109 2172 1099 48 1550 698 295 493 99 4272 292 1123 9495 1040 88 1635 148 9846 1076 1071
Low between peaks 7 688 483 179 31 1023 723 15 83 620 3737

Confirmed count forecast Europe (bold red line in graphs) 2020-11-17 to 2020-11-23

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
2020-11-16 1390681 9481705 208613 537871 101770 71015 465523 817526 63331 1496864 19419 1992552 76403 85519 147456 68356 1205881 452701 733788 225672 365212 177355 55544 87276 28434 269974
2020-11-17 1400000 9700000 215900 545500 103500 73060 472700 837200 64540 1512000 19650 2080000 78970 86300 157300 68920 1223000 457700 761200 232500 374900 186300 57170 90300 29000 280000
2020-11-18 1419000 9909000 222900 553300 107100 75200 475900 860700 65680 1543000 19850 2115000 82040 88700 163700 69450 1251000 462600 785300 239200 385200 188300 59250 92400 29480 288700
2020-11-19 1444000 10112000 231100 561000 110400 78640 478400 883800 66750 1562000 20050 2151000 85460 91600 170000 69980 1282000 467500 808400 246100 395900 190700 61140 94500 30070 295900
2020-11-20 1463000 10324000 239400 568900 114000 82100 481500 903900 67790 1583000 20250 2185000 88640 94100 178000 70500 1316000 472400 833300 253000 406600 191500 62570 96600 30660 303200
2020-11-21 1482000 10503000 246400 576900 117200 84190 483300 916900 68800 1583000 20440 2208000 91760 96700 186000 71020 1349000 477200 859800 260100 417700 196100 64200 98500 31250 303200
2020-11-22 1499000 10654000 252500 584900 118400 86410 483300 924500 69810 1583000 20640 2252000 94050 99100 193800 71540 1379000 482200 882200 267500 425400 196100 65040 99900 31380 303200
2020-11-23 1520000 10820000 258300 592900 121700 89150 484100 939500 70810 1625000 20840 2274000 96280 100600 201100 72070 1405000 487100 904200 275100 430500 196100 65600 100700 31550 319600

Confirmed count forecast (bold red line in graphs) 2020-11-17 to 2020-11-23

DateBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-VTUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
2020-11-16 5876464 305449 532604 1205217 8873541 470648 775121 1009396 937011 409574 1932711 752269 417594 11195388 24293 219232 132169 276912 1041690 167690 92863 19064 29105 887751 407008 16711 189052 83342 585012 256744 124687 139097 204734 183609 167656 9114 278657 230678 229355 134898 48027 314206 64885 100782 14740 280824 63186 122099 563690 305364 156782 57646 275235 196617 66278 308648 1066918 124715 204637 3000 131107 334562 34460 23193
2020-11-17 5876000 312300 533700 1213000 8933000 471900 784800 1016000 939600 411300 1953000 752800 420600 11359000 24870 219300 134000 277500 1050000 169900 94800 19190 29530 888500 409400 16800 194200 84700 599800 262100 126300 141500 216400 184800 168800 9260 278700 241600 233300 135000 48540 316600 65400 104600 15210 284300 64240 123900 567900 311800 159100 58780 280600 196900 66740 312500 1075000 125300 206800 3115 133100 340100 35560 23370
2020-11-18 5915000 317900 534500 1221000 8977000 475700 794800 1022000 941800 413000 1967000 754800 423600 11521000 25450 221200 135700 278300 1057000 173300 97000 19320 29920 894000 411600 16910 198500 86080 614600 268000 131000 144300 224200 186800 170400 9410 284500 250100 237200 136100 49320 319700 66470 108200 15610 287700 65620 125300 572000 318600 161200 59890 285900 198100 68090 317300 1082000 126800 208800 3224 135000 345500 36540 23590
2020-11-19 5940000 323000 536000 1229000 9016000 479600 804000 1027000 943900 414700 1981000 757000 426500 11681000 26030 223000 137400 279000 1066000 177200 99300 19450 30320 899800 414300 16990 203000 87440 629500 275400 133700 146800 233200 188800 171900 9600 290900 260300 240800 137400 50290 322500 68120 111700 16010 291100 67180 127200 576200 326400 163400 61010 291200 199400 69840 321200 1090000 128700 210700 3329 136900 350900 37510 23850
2020-11-20 5968000 327600 537600 1237000 9058000 484100 811800 1032000 945900 416300 1995000 758900 429300 11841000 26620 225300 139000 279800 1074000 181200 101600 19580 30700 905800 416700 17100 207500 88830 644600 281300 138000 149600 241900 190900 173600 9800 297200 269500 244500 138400 51390 324800 69410 115200 16410 294400 68710 129200 580300 334600 165400 62130 296400 200800 71360 324400 1097000 130400 212600 3432 138800 356300 38470 24110
2020-11-21 5997000 331900 539100 1245000 9097000 488600 819200 1038000 948000 418000 2008000 760700 432200 12003000 27220 227100 140600 280600 1083000 185200 103900 19700 31080 909500 419300 17190 211900 90240 660000 289100 139200 152100 250600 192900 175700 9960 305100 284300 248300 139400 52520 328200 71440 118800 16820 297700 69950 131500 584400 343000 167400 63260 301800 202300 72910 328600 1105000 132100 214500 3535 140700 361600 39690 24360
2020-11-22 6009000 336000 540500 1253000 9127000 492400 826300 1041000 950100 419600 2021000 762300 435100 12166000 27840 228900 142200 281300 1091000 188600 106200 19830 31460 917800 420800 17230 215100 91680 675800 295600 141200 154100 259500 194600 177200 10090 306400 295100 252100 140300 53510 330900 72500 122500 17240 301000 71130 132800 588500 350800 169400 64420 307200 203700 74240 332900 1113000 133700 216400 3639 142700 367000 40720 24620
2020-11-23 6020000 340100 541800 1260000 9154000 495500 833300 1045000 952100 421300 2033000 763300 437900 12332000 28470 230000 143900 282100 1100000 192900 108700 19960 31840 921700 422300 17300 218900 93140 691900 301400 146500 155500 264100 196400 178900 10270 316900 296500 256000 140900 54380 332500 73570 126300 17670 304400 72430 134500 592600 358300 171400 65590 312800 204600 75020 338000 1120000 135200 218300 3743 144600 372300 41450 24890

Confirmed count average forecast Europe (bold black line in graphs) 2020-11-17 to 2020-11-23

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
2020-11-16 1390681 9481705 208613 537871 101770 71015 465523 817526 63331 1496864 19419 1992552 76403 85519 147456 68356 1205881 452701 733788 225672 365212 177355 55544 87276 28434 269974
2020-11-17 1411000 9622000 214200 541600 105100 72870 473500 832300 64480 1504000 19630 2012000 79040 87500 153300 68740 1240000 457500 757900 232700 373500 184400 56510 88400 28700 275200
2020-11-18 1435000 9795000 222300 546100 109000 74760 480900 850200 65610 1529000 19820 2047000 82160 90300 158500 69040 1271000 462000 785100 239400 383800 188400 58050 90260 29220 283400
2020-11-19 1461000 9968000 231900 550500 112800 77960 487500 867700 66730 1548000 19980 2084000 85460 93400 163500 69340 1307000 466600 812500 246200 394300 191900 59480 92110 29800 291300
2020-11-20 1485000 10142000 241700 555000 116800 81200 494100 885000 67870 1568000 20190 2119000 88710 96400 169400 69640 1345000 471500 841400 253100 404800 194600 60740 93930 30360 299100
2020-11-21 1507000 10286000 251300 559400 120400 83330 501600 900400 69030 1577000 20310 2150000 92390 99400 176200 69930 1384000 476200 871700 260300 415300 199100 62160 95930 30890 303800
2020-11-22 1531000 10435000 260500 564000 122900 85670 504900 914100 70210 1586000 20510 2203000 95370 102500 183100 70240 1419000 480800 901700 267700 424600 201100 63250 97920 31420 308500
2020-11-23 1554000 10597000 268700 568400 126900 89120 508400 929600 71410 1623000 20590 2245000 97820 105100 190400 70540 1447000 484700 933300 275300 431600 202900 64160 99330 31920 322200

Confirmed count average forecast (bold black line in graphs) 2020-11-17 to 2020-11-23

DateBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-VTUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
2020-11-16 5876464 305449 532604 1205217 8873541 470648 775121 1009396 937011 409574 1932711 752269 417594 11195388 24293 219232 132169 276912 1041690 167690 92863 19064 29105 887751 407008 16711 189052 83342 585012 256744 124687 139097 204734 183609 167656 9114 278657 230678 229355 134898 48027 314206 64885 100782 14740 280824 63186 122099 563690 305364 156782 57646 275235 196617 66278 308648 1066918 124715 204637 3000 131107 334562 34460 23193
2020-11-17 5900000 310600 533600 1213000 8909000 474500 786900 1014000 939000 411100 1951000 753900 420600 11349000 24910 220700 133400 279200 1049000 172000 94600 19170 29470 893100 409900 16780 193000 84560 597500 262800 127700 141400 210100 185500 169100 9290 285100 238100 233500 135800 49210 316900 66020 103400 15070 284300 64410 123700 567700 312600 159600 58530 280600 197900 67400 313400 1076000 126700 206400 3084 132900 341300 35370 23980
2020-11-18 5940000 314200 534400 1220000 8947000 478300 798300 1020000 940900 412600 1964000 755600 423300 11497000 25510 222400 134800 281200 1053000 176700 96000 19310 29780 898200 412300 16880 197900 85880 610500 268900 131000 143800 212000 187500 170500 9450 291300 244500 237800 136900 50150 319700 67270 105700 15350 287500 65600 125100 571900 318700 162000 59440 285300 199100 68690 317100 1085000 128800 207800 3162 134300 347400 36200 24620
2020-11-19 5964000 318200 535900 1228000 8983000 482300 809500 1026000 942700 414100 1977000 757500 426000 11647000 26110 224100 136100 283200 1058000 181800 97500 19420 30090 903400 414400 16970 202900 87200 623600 275500 133500 146100 214900 189400 171700 9630 298100 251700 242300 138000 51240 322500 68920 108100 15660 290800 66900 126500 576000 325400 164600 60400 290400 200400 70340 320500 1093000 131200 209100 3254 135700 354000 37020 25420
2020-11-20 5994000 322300 537400 1236000 9019000 486800 820600 1031000 944500 415500 1990000 759300 428600 11799000 26730 226300 137400 285300 1064000 187200 99100 19540 30400 908600 416800 17070 208100 88550 636800 281700 136900 148600 217900 191300 173000 9820 304700 258700 246900 139000 52440 324500 70370 110600 15990 294100 68190 128100 580200 332200 167200 61340 295500 201700 71900 323900 1101000 133500 210400 3332 137300 360700 37880 26240
2020-11-21 6018000 325600 538900 1244000 9055000 490600 831900 1036000 946300 416900 2002000 760900 431300 11949000 27390 227900 138700 287400 1070000 192200 100400 19650 30710 913500 418600 17160 213200 89920 650300 288400 138900 150800 220000 193100 174500 9990 311800 267500 251400 140000 53750 327700 72190 113000 16290 297300 69230 129700 584400 339000 169300 62340 300000 203200 73520 327300 1109000 135900 211700 3402 138700 367000 38760 26960
2020-11-22 6026000 328800 540300 1251000 9086000 493900 842900 1041000 948100 418300 2014000 762300 434000 12098000 28040 229200 140000 289500 1073000 196800 101800 19760 31030 919000 422600 17240 218200 91320 664200 295300 141800 152800 222300 194800 175600 10140 314600 276600 256200 140800 54800 329900 73400 115200 16620 300600 70190 131000 588700 345100 171300 63290 304800 204300 74790 330600 1115000 138000 213000 3461 140000 371800 39620 27770
2020-11-23 6033000 332800 541500 1259000 9116000 496700 854400 1046000 949900 419700 2026000 763500 436800 12252000 28710 230200 141200 291500 1078000 202000 103700 19850 31340 924000 424400 17320 223600 92740 678300 302000 145100 154700 224000 196400 176700 10320 322800 282600 260800 141500 55540 331300 74700 117600 16920 303800 71320 132400 592900 351000 173500 64220 309800 205200 75680 334700 1121000 140100 214300 3522 141400 377200 40320 28660

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (with Jennie Castle and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting.
[2020-10-10]Temporarily removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.
[2020-06-24] Research presentation on short-term COVID-19 forecasting on 26 June (14:00 UK time) at the Quarterly Forecasting Forum of the IIF UK Chapter.
[2020-06-06] Removed Brazil from yesterday's forecasts (only; last observation 2020-06-05).
[2020-06-04] Data issues with confirmed cases for France.
Added an appendix to the short term paper with further forecast comparisons for European and Latin American countries.
Both Sweden and Iran have lost their peak in confirmed cases. For Sweden the previous peak was on 24 April (daily peak of 656 cases), for Iran it was on 31 March (peak of 3116). For Iran this looks like a second wave, with increasing daily counts for the last four weeks. For Sweden this is a sudden jump in confirmed cases in the last two days, compared to a fairly steady weekly pattern over the previous six weeks.
[2020-05-20] Problem with UK confirmed cases: negative daily count. This makes the forecasts temporarily unreliable.
Updated the second paper.
[2020-05-18] Minor fixes to the improved version of scenario forecasting, backported to 2020-05-13.
[2020-05-13] We now omit countries with fewer than 200 confirmed cases in the last week (25 for deaths).
The short-term paper has some small updates, including further comparisons with other models.
Data for Ecuador are not reliable enough for forecasting.
Switched to an improved version of scenario forecasting.
[2020-05-06] The New York Times is in the process of redefining its US state data. Unfortunately, at the moment only the last observation has changed (e.g New York deaths jumped from 19645 on 2020-05-05 to 25956 a day later). This means the data is currently useless; however it does bring it close to the Johns Hopkins/CSSE count (25626 on 2020-05-06). The aggregate US count is based on JH/CSSE so unaffected. We now use Johns Hopkins/CSSE US state data, including all states with sufficient counts. So the new forecasts cannot be compared to those previously.
A minor change is that we show the graph without scenario forecast if no peak has been detected yet.
[2020-04-29] See our blog entry at the International Institute of Forecasters.
US history of death counts revised in Johns Hopkins/CSSE data.
UK death counts have been revised to include the deaths in care homes. In the Johns Hopkins/CSSE data set, which we use, the entire history has been revised. So forecasts made up to 2020-04-29 cannot be compared to later outcomes. In the ECDC data set only the last observation has changed, causing a jump in the series.
[2020-04-27] Our short-term COVID-19 forecasting paper is now available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06.
A small adjustment has been made to the scenario forecast methodology, and will be documented shortly.
[2020-04-24] A summary of our work on short-term COVID-19 forecasting appeared as a voxeu.
[2020-04-17] Bird and Nielsen look into nowcasting death counts in England.
[2020-04-16] Added scenario forecasts to all graphs now. This would now be the preferred forecast for most.
This is the first time with a peak in confirmed UK cases (also for deaths, but this is uncertain because it is at the same date).
[2020-04-10] Updated documentation with better description of short-term estimates and peak determination.
[2020-04-09] Added table with estimated peak dates (if happened) and dates to and since the peak. Note that this can be a local peak, and subsequent re-acceleration (or data revisions) can result in a new peak later.
[2020-04-08] Minor correction to peak estimates. Added table with scenario forecasts.
[2020-04-06] Added a post hoc estimate of the peak number of cases. This needs at least three confirmed observations (four for deaths) after the event. It is based on the averaged smooth trend, and can change later or be a local peak. It is marked with a vertical line with the date label, or a date with left arrow in the bottom left corner of the graph. This is backported to 2020-04-04.
[2020-04-02] Now including more US States, based on New York Times data.
[2020-03-31] Scenario forecasts, based on what happened in China earlier this year, are presented for several countries (line marked with x). Created more plausible 90% confidence bands (dotted line in same colour).
[2020-03-26] Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, only for Italy.
[2020-03-24] Our forecasts are starting to overestimate in some cases. This was always expected to happen when the increase starts to slow down. Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, but only for Italy and Spain sofar.

Initial visual evaluation of forecasts of Confirmed