COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2020-12-30


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (with Jennie Castle and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting.

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in Europe 2020-12-30

UKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
Peak date (mm-dd) --11-0611-1110-2811-1612-1810-2912-2412-2411-0212-0211-0211-1412-0411-29 --11-1212-2411-2411-1511-17 --10-2912-2511-1711-02
Peak daily increment 209932 7102 16478 3440 3719 12261 23733 3451 21267 454 51645 2611 3473 5725 34941 11811 24706 5999 8602 1744 2928 1196 8396
Days since peak 54 49 63 44 12 62 6 6 58 28 58 46 26 31 48 6 36 45 43 62 5 43 58
Last total 2432888 15308992 357902 644242 201220 211890 701622 1741153 161230 1910218 35858 2597124 137918 208446 319543 90157 2083689 787300 1281414 406051 627941 437379 119740 173228 49010 447905
Last daily increment 50023 196405 2550 2831 1729 5234 16420 49044 2783 16716 438 26357 942 1850 1972 1718 16202 9398 12780 6049 4875 8846 2435 3041 732 5424
Last week 244301 640063 10698 9338 4562 18783 41161 110557 14889 55267 1411 71890 3683 6127 7989 7084 74372 54730 41416 18415 19380 41331 7719 11666 3079 19708
Previous peak date04-0604-1203-2604-1507-2403-2804-0303-2704-0403-3004-0404-1204-21 --04-1010-1803-2403-31 --04-1004-0906-19 -- --03-2603-27
Previous peak daily increment 5035 53762 808 1470 238 283 283 5663 316 8063 146 29746 86 105 1161 5642 1079 830 358 1075 240 1136
Low between peaks 3377 27 79 118 -1009 47 318 19 -6218 5 -1044 7 4 193 60 179 158 7 15

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed 2020-12-30

AustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-VTUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
Peak date (mm-dd)08-0212-16 --06-0612-2509-15 --11-2812-1008-0208-10 -- --12-10 --12-03 -- -- --12-1611-1812-26 --12-06 --11-0308-2711-1212-0311-0612-0311-23 --11-16 --12-1012-2411-2711-1911-1412-1611-1712-2612-0911-2612-1712-1211-2012-09 --12-0812-2011-2712-1012-2711-1312-2511-0111-1412-2412-0212-0610-1912-2511-19
Peak daily increment 483 46145 7361 13209 92130 13652 10394 8364 4291 714869 666 46110 4984 2427 770 22916 245 4364 1464 12547 6353 2774 3876 2663 492 8235 6769 5684 2109 1163 13783 2239 3013 786 4740 2334 2577 17385 3207 1563 9970 5533 1359 7781 27577 2491 3818 113 3044 12274 1312 801
Days since peak 150 14 207 5 106 32 20 150 142 20 27 14 42 4 24 57 125 48 27 54 27 37 44 20 6 33 41 46 14 43 4 21 34 13 18 40 21 22 10 33 20 3 47 5 59 46 6 28 24 72 5 41
Last total 28405 7619200 577266 606950 1626461 10266674 735124 1218753 1413935 1010496 472532 3100018 1039161 2194272 19740468 46262 356820 219714 512489 2261035 330833 183016 28758 56463 1303061 627183 21284 279395 139863 955191 505017 225434 265261 310827 350314 273689 23490 504844 412685 369712 213055 81300 532792 91899 164044 42379 471222 137826 222595 963363 690748 286808 112260 636061 303475 98720 550005 1750250 208655 344345 7267 240910 516226 84225 44133
Last daily increment 24 55649 8459 2964 11639 21822 8002 6272 12406 1588 1006 26095 17710 15692 229042 389 5016 3180 5267 32703 2450 1699 223 409 13891 8902 104 1741 1340 7464 4735 5999 3770 6743 6083 2628 594 3821 1997 2885 3023 874 8514 71 1504 542 4682 1311 2471 12919 8178 3236 1033 8535 2873 562 8061 20166 1857 4048 73 1479 3170 1452 210
Last week 131 195255 38076 12798 66695 119829 42286 35571 51371 10343 6808 165323 70598 93560 1075125 1365 18019 11300 32170 220847 11328 10917 1322 3570 58551 34722 577 6349 4631 30406 22283 12445 14982 14738 24089 12961 2266 18359 8723 11827 10404 2371 38281 952 4895 4137 22485 5975 10384 63526 37098 14379 5439 40253 18447 2174 31390 90841 8224 20430 494 9285 12520 6986 1469
Previous peak date03-2808-0404-22 -- -- -- --04-0110-05 -- --05-0907-1604-14 -- --07-16 --07-0407-2004-2404-2005-0110-0207-1607-30 --08-2709-0909-04 --04-30 --07-1904-1705-0605-2204-06 -- --07-24 -- -- --05-0105-0104-0807-2307-1904-0104-19 -- --04-0907-1605-0906-0207-16 --05-26 --07-18 --05-27 --
Previous peak daily increment 360 45352 1791 2860 23279 10924 12927 4816 1851 3553 9257 729 1011 190 417 11207 3329 1648 975 3969 303 2160 2172 1017 48 1627 1273 441 89 4272 286 1108 11252 994 1624 1837 148 1063 9848 1076 847 50
Low between peaks 7 19228 1038 4836 -703 3128 179 72 126 1239 723 283 1757 94 428 361 15 154 464 142 18 83 95 298 386 423 764 56 467 3766 479 398 21

Confirmed count forecast Europe (bold red line in graphs) 2020-12-31 to 2021-01-06

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
2020-12-30 2432888 15308992 357902 644242 201220 211890 701622 1741153 161230 1910218 35858 2597124 137918 208446 319543 90157 2083689 787300 1281414 406051 627941 437379 119740 173228 49010 447905
2020-12-31 2479000 15473000 359800 648500 204700 216800 707100 1777000 164500 1918000 36160 2610000 139100 210700 320500 91450 2106000 797900 1296000 410400 636500 439300 121500 176900 49160 453800
2021-01-01 2524000 15585000 361400 650300 205000 220200 713400 1787000 167600 1922000 36440 2623000 139600 211700 321300 92750 2121000 805900 1305000 414100 639600 442200 123100 180600 49550 456700
2021-01-02 2570000 15659000 362900 651500 205100 223100 718500 1803000 170800 1923000 36730 2635000 140000 212000 322100 94110 2132000 813000 1311000 416100 641500 442700 123800 182400 49960 456700
2021-01-03 2614000 15737000 364500 653000 205400 225500 722200 1814000 173900 1923000 37000 2647000 140600 213000 322800 95460 2142000 820600 1317000 418200 643600 443200 124400 183600 50290 456700
2021-01-04 2660000 15793000 365800 653800 206200 228200 725500 1829000 177100 1945000 37280 2659000 141000 214200 323500 96770 2151000 827300 1318000 420300 646100 443700 125000 184200 50750 464500
2021-01-05 2706000 15921000 367400 655300 207300 230600 735000 1852000 180200 1957000 37550 2671000 141800 215000 324200 98180 2160000 832500 1323000 422900 650000 472300 126600 186300 51400 468300
2021-01-06 2753000 16090000 369500 658000 208700 235600 747700 1891000 183400 1971000 37830 2683000 142700 216500 325000 99570 2174000 841400 1335000 428000 654800 479600 128800 189500 52000 473000

Confirmed count forecast (bold red line in graphs) 2020-12-31 to 2021-01-06

DateBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-VTUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
2020-12-30 7619200 577266 606950 1626461 10266674 735124 1218753 1413935 1010496 472532 3100018 1039161 2194272 19740468 46262 356820 219714 512489 2261035 330833 183016 28758 56463 1303061 627183 21284 279395 139863 955191 505017 225434 265261 310827 350314 273689 23490 504844 412685 369712 213055 81300 532792 91899 164044 42379 471222 137826 222595 963363 690748 286808 112260 636061 303475 98720 550005 1750250 208655 344345 7267 240910 516226 84225 44133
2020-12-31 7695000 586800 608400 1638000 10292000 743600 1227000 1428000 1012000 473800 3128000 1057000 2209000 20010000 46550 362400 222500 519100 2299000 334900 186300 28970 57090 1317000 634800 21460 281800 142200 963300 509500 225900 269900 313000 355600 275900 24030 509500 415500 372100 215800 81750 536100 93220 165800 43090 475200 140200 224600 973000 696400 291400 113300 644000 305600 99900 556500 1763000 210100 349100 7352 242800 518800 85720 44390
2021-01-01 7725000 594200 610300 1649000 10311000 750900 1233000 1437000 1014000 475100 3155000 1072000 2222000 20142000 46820 366300 224900 525200 2336000 337300 187000 29180 57720 1327000 640900 21600 282500 142400 968500 513900 227900 274000 313800 357300 278100 24400 509800 415700 374400 217500 82170 540500 93760 166700 43770 479100 141400 226600 986000 702200 292600 114300 651800 307800 100300 562900 1772000 211600 352800 7435 244600 521400 87070 44640
2021-01-02 7748000 600800 612600 1659000 10329000 758100 1239000 1444000 1015000 476300 3182000 1085000 2236000 20342000 47090 368100 226200 530900 2372000 338800 187000 29400 58330 1341000 645000 21720 283300 142900 972400 518100 227900 278000 313800 363200 280300 24590 514800 417700 376700 218600 82620 547100 94100 167100 44470 483000 142100 228600 996000 708200 296200 115300 659500 310100 100900 569300 1781000 213100 355200 7517 246400 523900 88380 44890
2021-01-03 7766000 606500 614300 1670000 10348000 765000 1244000 1450000 1017000 477500 3208000 1093000 2249000 20492000 47360 370200 227400 536700 2408000 340300 187000 29610 58940 1348000 648400 21820 283800 143300 977100 522300 227900 281900 317200 366400 282400 24890 514800 419800 379000 220100 83040 550500 94370 167600 45150 486900 142800 230500 1004000 714100 299300 116200 667200 312300 101400 575700 1794000 214500 358800 7598 248200 526400 89110 45130
2021-01-04 7787000 611900 616100 1681000 10364000 771100 1249000 1455000 1018000 478800 3234000 1101000 2261000 20657000 47630 372300 228100 542500 2444000 341800 193800 29820 59550 1355000 651500 21900 285000 144100 983200 526500 233100 285800 318300 370100 284600 25290 518800 421000 381300 221500 83470 553700 94600 168400 45830 490800 143600 232500 1013000 720000 302200 117200 674800 314600 102000 582100 1804000 215900 361600 7680 250000 528900 89930 45380
2021-01-05 7836000 617000 617900 1692000 10383000 778400 1255000 1466000 1020000 480000 3259000 1110000 2274000 20836000 47900 376000 230400 548300 2481000 343300 194500 30030 60170 1365000 660000 21950 286100 145400 988100 530800 233200 289800 321600 373100 286800 25820 521400 421600 383600 223300 83900 557200 94990 169400 46520 494700 144400 234400 1022000 725900 303500 118200 682500 316800 102600 588600 1828000 217300 365300 7763 251900 531400 91170 45620
2021-01-06 7886000 621900 620100 1703000 10403000 786000 1261000 1477000 1021000 481300 3283000 1122000 2287000 21053000 48170 380600 233200 554200 2517000 345900 196100 30240 60780 1376000 667300 22040 287800 146700 994400 535000 238400 293800 326900 378500 288900 26350 524800 423600 385900 226000 84320 562700 95130 170700 47220 498600 145700 236400 1033000 731900 306600 119200 690300 319100 103000 595100 1846000 218800 369300 7846 253700 533900 92470 45870

Confirmed count average forecast Europe (bold black line in graphs) 2020-12-31 to 2021-01-06

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
2020-12-30 2432888 15308992 357902 644242 201220 211890 701622 1741153 161230 1910218 35858 2597124 137918 208446 319543 90157 2083689 787300 1281414 406051 627941 437379 119740 173228 49010 447905
2020-12-31 2480000 15446000 360300 646400 202100 216600 714400 1767000 163700 1924000 36120 2612000 138800 209500 321500 91460 2097000 796600 1292000 409900 631700 444000 121500 175700 49560 452500
2021-01-01 2519000 15521000 361700 648200 202700 219900 720100 1779000 166600 1930000 36300 2624000 139200 210600 323600 92430 2109000 806600 1300000 413000 635100 447800 122900 178600 49950 455900
2021-01-02 2558000 15574000 363100 649700 203200 222900 725100 1792000 169100 1935000 36440 2633000 139500 211300 325300 93430 2116000 816100 1307000 415400 637700 449700 123800 180800 50360 457400
2021-01-03 2597000 15626000 364500 651200 203800 225300 729200 1803000 171800 1940000 36590 2643000 139900 212200 326900 94420 2122000 826300 1313000 417800 640400 451500 124800 182600 50720 458700
2021-01-04 2636000 15670000 365800 652700 205000 228600 733200 1817000 174800 1955000 36720 2650000 140300 213700 328500 95390 2128000 835600 1317000 420100 643800 453800 125700 184300 51140 463900
2021-01-05 2677000 15737000 367000 654600 206200 231100 741700 1838000 178000 1965000 36940 2660000 141000 214600 329800 96420 2135000 844000 1324000 423000 648400 467900 127200 186800 51640 467200
2021-01-06 2720000 15823000 368500 656600 207600 235700 751700 1861000 181100 1975000 37170 2672000 141700 216000 331200 97440 2144000 855600 1334000 426500 653000 472600 128800 189900 52100 470900

Confirmed count average forecast (bold black line in graphs) 2020-12-31 to 2021-01-06

DateBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-VTUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
2020-12-30 7619200 577266 606950 1626461 10266674 735124 1218753 1413935 1010496 472532 3100018 1039161 2194272 19740468 46262 356820 219714 512489 2261035 330833 183016 28758 56463 1303061 627183 21284 279395 139863 955191 505017 225434 265261 310827 350314 273689 23490 504844 412685 369712 213055 81300 532792 91899 164044 42379 471222 137826 222595 963363 690748 286808 112260 636061 303475 98720 550005 1750250 208655 344345 7267 240910 516226 84225 44133
2020-12-31 7676000 584600 609700 1638000 10282000 742500 1224000 1425000 1012000 473500 3124000 1053000 2209000 19966000 46500 361100 222600 518400 2292000 333300 185000 28930 56990 1315000 636100 21390 280800 141000 961400 509100 226700 267900 313900 355200 276000 24090 505700 414200 372300 215200 81820 535600 92170 165100 43050 475100 139400 224400 975000 697500 289500 113100 643100 306100 99200 556400 1764000 210200 348100 7367 242700 519000 85480 44350
2021-01-01 7708000 589100 611600 1650000 10293000 749200 1228000 1435000 1013000 474500 3144000 1065000 2224000 20117000 46690 364500 224800 524400 2320000 335600 186100 29060 57540 1325000 642200 21520 281700 141500 966100 513100 228600 269900 314700 357900 278100 24430 507100 415200 374700 216900 82150 539500 92400 165800 43660 478900 140500 226200 986000 701800 291500 114000 649800 308500 99400 562000 1771000 211500 351500 7425 243800 521000 86670 44560
2021-01-02 7732000 593400 613800 1661000 10304000 755700 1232000 1442000 1015000 475500 3163000 1076000 2238000 20314000 46880 366300 226300 530100 2354000 336900 186800 29270 58080 1336000 647200 21630 282700 142100 970000 517100 229500 272200 315100 362500 280100 24660 511500 416500 377100 218300 82580 548400 92590 166500 44280 482600 141400 228100 997000 708200 294600 114900 656300 312100 99700 568400 1779000 212900 354400 7539 245600 523000 87860 44780
2021-01-03 7748000 598900 615500 1673000 10314000 762000 1235000 1449000 1016000 476500 3181000 1086000 2252000 20468000 47070 368200 227700 535500 2388000 338200 187500 29530 58620 1344000 651400 21740 283400 142700 973900 521100 230500 274100 317500 365800 281900 24990 511600 417800 379500 219900 82990 552000 92700 167100 44900 486300 142200 229900 1006000 713100 297500 115800 662100 316100 100100 574700 1792000 214200 357700 7618 246600 524900 88750 44970
2021-01-04 7773000 603900 617500 1685000 10324000 768100 1238000 1457000 1017000 477500 3198000 1097000 2267000 20650000 47260 370500 229000 541800 2423000 339600 191700 29650 59170 1353000 655600 21850 284500 143600 977800 525100 234000 276100 318800 369400 283700 25380 516200 418900 381900 221600 83290 556500 92820 167900 45530 490000 143100 231600 1016000 718000 300500 116800 670000 319100 100400 580900 1800000 215600 360600 7694 247800 526500 89740 45210
2021-01-05 7831000 608800 619100 1697000 10335000 774500 1242000 1468000 1019000 478400 3213000 1107000 2281000 20831000 47450 374200 231000 547800 2454000 341400 193000 29830 59730 1362000 663900 21940 285700 144900 982700 529200 235200 278100 322300 372800 285600 25810 519500 420100 384300 223500 83710 561600 92990 168600 46170 493900 144000 233400 1026000 727100 302900 117700 677900 322000 100700 587000 1820000 217000 364000 7761 249100 528700 90980 45420
2021-01-06 7887000 613200 620800 1709000 10346000 781100 1246000 1479000 1020000 479400 3229000 1119000 2296000 21082000 47640 377900 233200 553700 2488000 343600 194600 30070 60290 1373000 671000 22040 287100 146100 987600 533300 238700 280300 325400 376900 287500 26300 522800 421300 386800 225700 84130 567800 93180 169600 46820 497800 145100 235500 1037000 732600 306100 118600 686200 325700 101200 593600 1838000 218400 367500 7837 250300 530600 92170 45630

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (with Jennie Castle and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting.
[2020-10-10]Temporarily removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.
[2020-06-24] Research presentation on short-term COVID-19 forecasting on 26 June (14:00 UK time) at the Quarterly Forecasting Forum of the IIF UK Chapter.
[2020-06-06] Removed Brazil from yesterday's forecasts (only; last observation 2020-06-05).
[2020-06-04] Data issues with confirmed cases for France.
Added an appendix to the short term paper with further forecast comparisons for European and Latin American countries.
Both Sweden and Iran have lost their peak in confirmed cases. For Sweden the previous peak was on 24 April (daily peak of 656 cases), for Iran it was on 31 March (peak of 3116). For Iran this looks like a second wave, with increasing daily counts for the last four weeks. For Sweden this is a sudden jump in confirmed cases in the last two days, compared to a fairly steady weekly pattern over the previous six weeks.
[2020-05-20] Problem with UK confirmed cases: negative daily count. This makes the forecasts temporarily unreliable.
Updated the second paper.
[2020-05-18] Minor fixes to the improved version of scenario forecasting, backported to 2020-05-13.
[2020-05-13] We now omit countries with fewer than 200 confirmed cases in the last week (25 for deaths).
The short-term paper has some small updates, including further comparisons with other models.
Data for Ecuador are not reliable enough for forecasting.
Switched to an improved version of scenario forecasting.
[2020-05-06] The New York Times is in the process of redefining its US state data. Unfortunately, at the moment only the last observation has changed (e.g New York deaths jumped from 19645 on 2020-05-05 to 25956 a day later). This means the data is currently useless; however it does bring it close to the Johns Hopkins/CSSE count (25626 on 2020-05-06). The aggregate US count is based on JH/CSSE so unaffected. We now use Johns Hopkins/CSSE US state data, including all states with sufficient counts. So the new forecasts cannot be compared to those previously.
A minor change is that we show the graph without scenario forecast if no peak has been detected yet.
[2020-04-29] See our blog entry at the International Institute of Forecasters.
US history of death counts revised in Johns Hopkins/CSSE data.
UK death counts have been revised to include the deaths in care homes. In the Johns Hopkins/CSSE data set, which we use, the entire history has been revised. So forecasts made up to 2020-04-29 cannot be compared to later outcomes. In the ECDC data set only the last observation has changed, causing a jump in the series.
[2020-04-27] Our short-term COVID-19 forecasting paper is now available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06.
A small adjustment has been made to the scenario forecast methodology, and will be documented shortly.
[2020-04-24] A summary of our work on short-term COVID-19 forecasting appeared as a voxeu.
[2020-04-17] Bird and Nielsen look into nowcasting death counts in England.
[2020-04-16] Added scenario forecasts to all graphs now. This would now be the preferred forecast for most.
This is the first time with a peak in confirmed UK cases (also for deaths, but this is uncertain because it is at the same date).
[2020-04-10] Updated documentation with better description of short-term estimates and peak determination.
[2020-04-09] Added table with estimated peak dates (if happened) and dates to and since the peak. Note that this can be a local peak, and subsequent re-acceleration (or data revisions) can result in a new peak later.
[2020-04-08] Minor correction to peak estimates. Added table with scenario forecasts.
[2020-04-06] Added a post hoc estimate of the peak number of cases. This needs at least three confirmed observations (four for deaths) after the event. It is based on the averaged smooth trend, and can change later or be a local peak. It is marked with a vertical line with the date label, or a date with left arrow in the bottom left corner of the graph. This is backported to 2020-04-04.
[2020-04-02] Now including more US States, based on New York Times data.
[2020-03-31] Scenario forecasts, based on what happened in China earlier this year, are presented for several countries (line marked with x). Created more plausible 90% confidence bands (dotted line in same colour).
[2020-03-26] Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, only for Italy.
[2020-03-24] Our forecasts are starting to overestimate in some cases. This was always expected to happen when the increase starts to slow down. Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, but only for Italy and Spain sofar.

Initial visual evaluation of forecasts of Confirmed