COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2021-01-03


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (with Jennie Castle and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting.

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in Europe 2021-01-03

UKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
Peak date (mm-dd) --11-0611-1110-2811-1612-17 --12-1712-1811-0212-0311-0211-1412-0412-04 --11-1212-2311-2411-1511-17 --10-29 --11-1711-02
Peak daily increment 209946 7102 16478 3440 3694 23441 3280 21266 462 51646 2611 3525 5576 34940 10991 24706 5999 8602 1744 1196 8396
Days since peak 58 53 67 48 17 17 16 62 31 62 50 30 30 52 11 40 49 47 66 47 62
Last total 2654779 15726305 365768 650011 203051 222183 740481 1783896 168711 1928265 36772 2651893 140099 212958 327995 101887 2155446 821163 1318562 427254 640429 437379 125086 187463 50716 452296
Last daily increment 54990 77595 1466 842 171 1580 5012 10356 1170 0 168 12489 390 696 1307 4961 14245 7398 5782 3384 3034 0 743 1219 450 0
Last week 325049 757413 12284 10277 4998 18157 66141 111253 12885 48852 1635 92318 4168 7712 11326 14993 99169 50763 57552 30588 22000 41331 9759 19371 3131 14012
Previous peak date04-0604-1203-2604-1507-2403-2810-2903-2704-0403-3004-0404-1204-21 --04-1010-1803-2403-31 --04-1004-0906-19 --04-1703-2603-27
Previous peak daily increment 5034 53765 808 1470 238 283 12261 5664 316 8062 146 29746 86 105 1161 5642 1079 830 358 1075 48 240 1136
Low between peaks 3378 27 79 118 -1009 318 19 -6218 5 -1044 7 4 193 60 179 158 7 15

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed 2021-01-03

AustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-VTUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
Peak date (mm-dd)08-0212-16 --06-0612-3109-15 --11-2812-1008-0208-1012-24 --12-1012-2912-05 -- -- --12-1611-18 -- --12-06 --11-0308-2711-1212-0311-0612-0411-19 --11-1612-2812-06 --11-2711-1911-1412-1611-1712-2612-0911-2612-1312-0611-2012-06 --12-08 --11-2712-04 --11-13 --11-0111-14 --12-03 --10-19 --11-19
Peak daily increment 483 45445 7361 13094 92141 13616 10352 8364 4291 27859 717780 213300 712 44547 4984 795 22916 245 4364 1517 12548 6566 2692 3876 4625 2674 7869 6769 5684 2095 1163 11647 2213 3013 784 4798 2334 2626 16752 1549 9979 1359 27578 2491 116 12274 801
Days since peak 154 18 211 3 110 36 24 154 146 10 24 5 29 18 46 28 61 129 52 31 58 30 45 48 6 28 37 45 50 18 47 8 25 38 21 28 44 28 26 37 30 51 63 50 31 76 45
Last total 28504 7733746 606076 618191 1675820 10340469 765350 1243434 1448755 1018099 477807 3203743 1100748 2241912 20636663 47872 371934 230826 556384 2426930 341223 189436 29764 59345 1362371 661674 22017 283953 142506 979682 526071 230314 276825 320649 368640 285319 25585 513046 420103 381951 222061 82381 564617 93041 167736 45548 490891 143014 231614 1023862 721481 303612 117745 664913 321669 100532 575021 1810320 217022 363765 7785 253992 526245 91058 44875
Last daily increment 20 17341 16141 2289 9412 16504 6877 5960 5211 2962 891 23845 11859 9877 210479 296 2476 2017 17236 38373 2078 0 255 608 10583 5559 122 814 307 4463 2981 0 2855 5773 3062 2148 341 0 2700 2328 1784 437 6214 150 735 1489 3659 1007 2743 12232 6808 7853 1397 4333 8951 703 3635 16867 1339 5010 105 8729 2593 1731 302
Last week 155 228913 45458 16163 72013 116166 46131 37061 59325 10442 7157 156408 88877 79137 1327382 2179 24037 17030 51961 234246 14580 8907 1422 3989 85282 52641 908 7942 5497 37603 29765 11270 18309 20528 28048 16136 3275 15768 10407 17876 13972 2382 43903 1484 6116 4683 28054 7680 13237 83572 46437 21209 7200 46011 23619 2875 37421 109771 12265 27590 673 16716 16108 9622 1171
Previous peak date03-2808-0405-03 -- -- -- --04-0110-05 -- --05-0907-1604-14 -- --07-16 --07-0207-2004-2404-2105-0110-0207-1607-30 --08-2709-0909-04 --04-30 --07-1904-1705-0605-2204-06 -- --07-24 -- -- --05-0105-0104-0807-2307-1904-0104-19 -- --04-0907-1405-09 --07-16 --05-26 --07-20 -- -- --
Previous peak daily increment 360 45352 1992 2860 23279 10923 12927 4816 1851 3570 9259 729 949 190 417 12174 3329 1648 975 3969 303 2160 2172 1017 50 1627 1273 441 89 4272 286 1108 10988 994 1624 1922 148 9849 1075 867
Low between peaks 7 19228 1038 4836 4741 -703 3128 179 126 1239 723 283 1757 94 428 -15 361 154 464 142 18 83 95 298 386 423 56 3766

Confirmed count forecast Europe (bold red line in graphs) 2021-01-04 to 2021-01-10

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
2021-01-03 2654779 15726305 365768 650011 203051 222183 740481 1783896 168711 1928265 36772 2651893 140099 212958 327995 101887 2155446 821163 1318562 427254 640429 437379 125086 187463 50716 452296
2021-01-04 2704000 15831000 368100 652900 203300 227200 755400 1813000 171100 1947000 37020 2665000 140900 215200 329900 105000 2165000 830400 1325000 427300 645400 437400 125600 187800 50910 462500
2021-01-05 2761000 15964000 369800 654300 203800 229300 770000 1834000 173600 1959000 37260 2678000 141600 216700 331900 108100 2176000 839700 1331000 428700 649200 464800 127300 190000 51520 465700
2021-01-06 2817000 16134000 372000 656900 204500 233900 788700 1874000 176100 1973000 37510 2690000 142500 218900 333900 111300 2190000 848900 1343000 432300 653400 472000 129600 193200 52120 470200
2021-01-07 2877000 16281000 374100 659000 205000 237400 806300 1894000 178600 1987000 37750 2703000 143200 221600 335800 114200 2210000 858000 1355000 436300 657200 472300 131700 198000 52560 474000
2021-01-08 2931000 16386000 376000 660700 205400 240800 823200 1899000 181100 1987000 38000 2715000 143900 223200 337800 118100 2229000 867200 1365000 439600 660900 473000 133300 202200 52910 474500
2021-01-09 2987000 16446000 377300 661500 205400 242700 832000 1908000 183700 1987000 38240 2728000 144100 224000 339800 120400 2240000 876500 1371000 440300 661900 473000 133700 204200 53350 474500
2021-01-10 3042000 16515000 378700 662600 205400 244600 834900 1916000 186200 1987000 38490 2740000 144400 224800 341800 124500 2253000 885800 1376000 443400 664600 473000 134300 205400 53730 474500

Confirmed count forecast (bold red line in graphs) 2021-01-04 to 2021-01-10

DateBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-VTUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
2021-01-03 7733746 606076 618191 1675820 10340469 765350 1243434 1448755 1018099 477807 3203743 1100748 2241912 20636663 47872 371934 230826 556384 2426930 341223 189436 29764 59345 1362371 661674 22017 283953 142506 979682 526071 230314 276825 320649 368640 285319 25585 513046 420103 381951 222061 82381 564617 93041 167736 45548 490891 143014 231614 1023862 721481 303612 117745 664913 321669 100532 575021 1810320 217022 363765 7785 253992 526245 91058 44875
2021-01-04 7781000 619600 618700 1687000 10360000 771900 1249000 1457000 1020000 479000 3235000 1110000 2255000 20837000 48190 373700 233400 563300 2466000 343900 194400 30030 59970 1371000 661700 22070 285500 143900 987000 530400 233700 276800 320600 372000 287700 26080 518300 422400 384500 223000 82760 565300 93260 168500 46250 495100 144200 233600 1035000 728700 305000 118500 672100 322800 100800 581400 1815000 217400 369000 7834 257100 528700 92600 45080
2021-01-05 7829000 630900 620600 1698000 10376000 779200 1255000 1468000 1021000 480200 3260000 1119000 2267000 21028000 48490 377500 235800 570300 2505000 345500 195100 30280 60580 1382000 670400 22140 286700 145200 992000 534600 233900 278200 324200 375300 290000 26560 520900 423300 386900 225000 83120 569500 93440 169400 46910 499200 145300 235500 1047000 735600 306600 119200 679200 325800 101200 587400 1841000 219100 374000 7882 259700 531100 94300 45290
2021-01-06 7879000 642500 623100 1710000 10393000 786900 1260000 1479000 1023000 481400 3285000 1136000 2278000 21223000 48810 382000 238100 577400 2544000 347900 196600 30530 61200 1395000 678500 22240 288300 146400 998000 538900 239100 280300 329700 380700 292300 27040 523900 425200 389300 227800 83490 577100 93720 170700 47600 503300 146400 237500 1058000 742900 309800 120200 686400 329500 101700 593700 1860000 220900 379100 7938 262200 533400 96000 45500
2021-01-07 7933000 653500 625200 1721000 10408000 794500 1266000 1490000 1024000 482600 3310000 1151000 2288000 21411000 49100 386200 240300 584100 2582000 350700 198100 30780 61790 1407000 688200 22390 289700 147500 1005000 543200 239100 280300 333200 386600 294500 27510 524100 427000 391700 230300 83860 582600 94060 171900 48260 507300 147600 239400 1069000 749800 313300 121600 693500 333200 102100 599600 1875000 223700 384100 7987 264400 535800 97700 45710
2021-01-08 7956000 660100 627900 1732000 10419000 802100 1271000 1500000 1026000 483800 3336000 1165000 2299000 21600000 49390 390200 242500 590600 2621000 353500 198400 31020 62400 1419000 696200 22600 290800 147700 1006000 547500 242600 280300 333400 387500 296800 27980 524600 427000 394100 232400 84220 584600 94290 172800 48910 511300 148700 241300 1080000 756700 314000 121800 700800 334700 102200 605500 1886000 223800 389100 8037 266500 538200 99700 45920
2021-01-09 7970000 668800 630800 1743000 10442000 809200 1277000 1506000 1027000 485000 3361000 1176000 2309000 21790000 49690 393200 244700 596900 2660000 355200 200900 31270 63000 1431000 701900 22750 291600 148200 1014000 551900 242600 282600 333400 394700 299100 28450 530800 429200 396500 234000 84580 599200 94350 173100 49580 515300 149800 243200 1092000 763600 318500 123700 708000 340000 102700 611400 1897000 226900 394300 8088 268500 540600 101400 46120
2021-01-10 7986000 679500 632700 1755000 10457000 816100 1282000 1511000 1029000 486200 3384000 1183000 2320000 21981000 49990 395500 246900 603100 2699000 357100 201000 31510 63610 1444000 706200 22870 292300 148500 1019000 556200 242600 285200 338100 397800 301300 28920 530800 431700 398900 235600 84950 604500 94460 173700 50240 519300 150900 245100 1103000 770600 324400 125000 715300 347600 103300 617400 1913000 228000 399500 8139 270500 543000 102700 46330

Confirmed count average forecast Europe (bold black line in graphs) 2021-01-04 to 2021-01-10

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
2021-01-03 2654779 15726305 365768 650011 203051 222183 740481 1783896 168711 1928265 36772 2651893 140099 212958 327995 101887 2155446 821163 1318562 427254 640429 437379 125086 187463 50716 452296
2021-01-04 2708000 15782000 367300 651000 203200 224600 746000 1794000 170600 1943000 36960 2663000 140500 213600 329400 105100 2164000 827500 1323000 430300 642600 436800 125800 189000 51170 457500
2021-01-05 2758000 15867000 369000 652500 204000 226500 756100 1810000 172800 1953000 37140 2674000 141200 214300 330800 107400 2171000 835100 1330000 433600 646000 458600 127400 191400 51720 460800
2021-01-06 2808000 15980000 371000 654400 204900 231200 769700 1835000 175100 1965000 37350 2685000 141900 215400 332600 109600 2182000 843600 1340000 437800 649300 464500 129100 194400 52270 464600
2021-01-07 2861000 16079000 373200 656000 205600 234900 783300 1850000 177500 1978000 37530 2696000 142600 216800 334800 111800 2197000 852900 1350000 442200 652400 465500 130900 198200 52730 467900
2021-01-08 2912000 16142000 375100 657700 206400 238700 793700 1858000 179800 1982000 37690 2707000 143200 217600 336700 114300 2210000 862500 1360000 445800 655900 466700 132300 201500 53110 469700
2021-01-09 2965000 16184000 376600 659200 207000 241400 801300 1870000 182200 1985000 37830 2718000 143700 218200 338200 116400 2216000 872200 1367000 448600 658400 467400 133300 203800 53520 471400
2021-01-10 3018000 16224000 378100 660500 207400 243700 806700 1881000 184600 1989000 37970 2729000 144100 218800 339700 119000 2222000 881900 1373000 451800 661100 467700 134400 205800 53890 472800

Confirmed count average forecast (bold black line in graphs) 2021-01-04 to 2021-01-10

DateBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-VTUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
2021-01-03 7733746 606076 618191 1675820 10340469 765350 1243434 1448755 1018099 477807 3203743 1100748 2241912 20636663 47872 371934 230826 556384 2426930 341223 189436 29764 59345 1362371 661674 22017 283953 142506 979682 526071 230314 276825 320649 368640 285319 25585 513046 420103 381951 222061 82381 564617 93041 167736 45548 490891 143014 231614 1023862 721481 303612 117745 664913 321669 100532 575021 1810320 217022 363765 7785 253992 526245 91058 44875
2021-01-04 7749000 614300 620600 1687000 10355000 771900 1248000 1454000 1020000 478800 3226000 1113000 2247000 20822000 48210 374300 233000 565800 2462000 342900 194000 29930 59970 1377000 667200 22130 285000 143200 985000 530200 233600 279400 322100 372500 287600 26010 516700 422000 384400 223800 82650 569800 93100 168500 46370 495000 143900 233400 1036000 727600 307000 119000 671400 325300 100800 581600 1820000 218500 368200 7896 257500 527900 92500 45110
2021-01-05 7796000 620400 622400 1699000 10362000 778900 1252000 1465000 1021000 479800 3244000 1125000 2264000 20977000 48470 377700 235000 571900 2493000 344500 195400 30110 60550 1388000 675700 22220 286100 144100 990000 534200 234600 281700 325400 375400 289600 26470 519700 423200 386700 225700 83030 573400 93310 169300 46960 498900 144900 235100 1048000 735600 309000 120000 678300 328000 101200 587300 1844000 220100 372000 7973 258700 530200 93900 45320
2021-01-06 7844000 626800 624900 1711000 10370000 786000 1256000 1475000 1022000 480700 3261000 1139000 2283000 21166000 48730 381700 236800 577900 2526000 346700 197000 30330 61130 1399000 683600 22320 287500 144900 994000 538200 238100 284400 330100 379400 291800 26950 522700 424600 388900 228000 83510 580200 93590 170200 47570 502900 146000 237000 1060000 741700 311900 121000 685300 331000 101600 593600 1862000 221700 375900 8053 259900 532500 95200 45520
2021-01-07 7896000 633000 627000 1723000 10376000 793200 1259000 1485000 1024000 481600 3278000 1152000 2298000 21371000 48980 385400 238700 583800 2557000 349300 198800 30500 61710 1411000 693100 22460 288600 145700 1000000 542200 239000 285900 333400 383500 294100 27460 523500 425900 391200 230200 83870 585500 93840 171200 48170 507000 147200 238800 1072000 749200 314900 122000 692400 334300 102000 599500 1874000 223900 380100 8146 261600 535200 96600 45720
2021-01-08 7924000 637000 629600 1735000 10385000 800400 1263000 1495000 1025000 482500 3294000 1166000 2334000 21518000 49240 389100 240500 589600 2592000 351800 200000 30660 62290 1423000 700900 22620 289700 146400 1003000 546300 241500 287700 334000 385100 296400 27930 524600 427000 393400 232200 84120 587000 94100 172000 48780 510900 148400 240700 1084000 753200 316700 123000 699000 336300 102100 605000 1882000 224800 384200 8215 262400 536900 98400 45910
2021-01-09 7951000 642400 632000 1747000 10395000 807300 1266000 1502000 1027000 483400 3310000 1179000 2354000 21699000 49500 391400 242300 595300 2630000 353500 201800 30840 62880 1434000 706300 22750 290700 147200 1008000 550300 242500 291100 334400 389500 298400 28330 529400 428400 395700 233800 84500 599500 94220 172700 49410 514900 149400 242600 1096000 758000 320200 124100 705900 340200 102600 612100 1889000 226800 387800 8336 263300 538400 99700 46110
2021-01-10 7971000 649000 633700 1759000 10403000 814100 1269000 1509000 1028000 484300 3326000 1191000 2374000 21831000 49760 393200 244100 601000 2662000 354900 202700 31080 63480 1446000 710600 22850 291500 147900 1012000 554400 243400 293700 337200 392100 300100 28700 530200 429900 397900 235500 84840 602800 94540 173400 50030 518700 150200 244300 1107000 763100 323500 125200 712500 344600 103000 618100 1903000 228000 391800 8418 264100 540100 100800 46300

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (with Jennie Castle and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting.
[2020-10-10]Temporarily removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.
[2020-06-24] Research presentation on short-term COVID-19 forecasting on 26 June (14:00 UK time) at the Quarterly Forecasting Forum of the IIF UK Chapter.
[2020-06-06] Removed Brazil from yesterday's forecasts (only; last observation 2020-06-05).
[2020-06-04] Data issues with confirmed cases for France.
Added an appendix to the short term paper with further forecast comparisons for European and Latin American countries.
Both Sweden and Iran have lost their peak in confirmed cases. For Sweden the previous peak was on 24 April (daily peak of 656 cases), for Iran it was on 31 March (peak of 3116). For Iran this looks like a second wave, with increasing daily counts for the last four weeks. For Sweden this is a sudden jump in confirmed cases in the last two days, compared to a fairly steady weekly pattern over the previous six weeks.
[2020-05-20] Problem with UK confirmed cases: negative daily count. This makes the forecasts temporarily unreliable.
Updated the second paper.
[2020-05-18] Minor fixes to the improved version of scenario forecasting, backported to 2020-05-13.
[2020-05-13] We now omit countries with fewer than 200 confirmed cases in the last week (25 for deaths).
The short-term paper has some small updates, including further comparisons with other models.
Data for Ecuador are not reliable enough for forecasting.
Switched to an improved version of scenario forecasting.
[2020-05-06] The New York Times is in the process of redefining its US state data. Unfortunately, at the moment only the last observation has changed (e.g New York deaths jumped from 19645 on 2020-05-05 to 25956 a day later). This means the data is currently useless; however it does bring it close to the Johns Hopkins/CSSE count (25626 on 2020-05-06). The aggregate US count is based on JH/CSSE so unaffected. We now use Johns Hopkins/CSSE US state data, including all states with sufficient counts. So the new forecasts cannot be compared to those previously.
A minor change is that we show the graph without scenario forecast if no peak has been detected yet.
[2020-04-29] See our blog entry at the International Institute of Forecasters.
US history of death counts revised in Johns Hopkins/CSSE data.
UK death counts have been revised to include the deaths in care homes. In the Johns Hopkins/CSSE data set, which we use, the entire history has been revised. So forecasts made up to 2020-04-29 cannot be compared to later outcomes. In the ECDC data set only the last observation has changed, causing a jump in the series.
[2020-04-27] Our short-term COVID-19 forecasting paper is now available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06.
A small adjustment has been made to the scenario forecast methodology, and will be documented shortly.
[2020-04-24] A summary of our work on short-term COVID-19 forecasting appeared as a voxeu.
[2020-04-17] Bird and Nielsen look into nowcasting death counts in England.
[2020-04-16] Added scenario forecasts to all graphs now. This would now be the preferred forecast for most.
This is the first time with a peak in confirmed UK cases (also for deaths, but this is uncertain because it is at the same date).
[2020-04-10] Updated documentation with better description of short-term estimates and peak determination.
[2020-04-09] Added table with estimated peak dates (if happened) and dates to and since the peak. Note that this can be a local peak, and subsequent re-acceleration (or data revisions) can result in a new peak later.
[2020-04-08] Minor correction to peak estimates. Added table with scenario forecasts.
[2020-04-06] Added a post hoc estimate of the peak number of cases. This needs at least three confirmed observations (four for deaths) after the event. It is based on the averaged smooth trend, and can change later or be a local peak. It is marked with a vertical line with the date label, or a date with left arrow in the bottom left corner of the graph. This is backported to 2020-04-04.
[2020-04-02] Now including more US States, based on New York Times data.
[2020-03-31] Scenario forecasts, based on what happened in China earlier this year, are presented for several countries (line marked with x). Created more plausible 90% confidence bands (dotted line in same colour).
[2020-03-26] Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, only for Italy.
[2020-03-24] Our forecasts are starting to overestimate in some cases. This was always expected to happen when the increase starts to slow down. Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, but only for Italy and Spain sofar.

Initial visual evaluation of forecasts of Confirmed