COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2021-01-28


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in Europe 2021-01-28

UKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
Peak date (mm-dd)2021-01-0511-0611-1110-2811-1612-162021-01-0612-1612-182021-01-2512-0511-0311-1412-1211-292021-01-0711-1212-1811-08 --11-17 --10-2912-3111-1711-02
Peak daily increment 56033 210450 7110 16471 3443 3744 10480 23891 3419 47896 455 51953 2609 3555 5428 5290 34946 11039 24661 8604 1746 2848 1168 8404
Days since peak 23 83 78 92 73 43 22 43 41 3 54 86 75 47 60 21 77 41 81 72 91 28 72 87
Last total 3743734 19217477 410230 702437 217574 273054 964660 2194562 197208 2705001 44039 3097374 154796 230978 363450 193645 2515507 966252 1496665 685383 721513 564557 163235 243427 62276 519404
Last daily increment 28680 125842 1449 2775 560 1787 8505 14883 668 34899 423 0 713 619 1569 2463 14360 4659 7153 16432 2901 4085 1573 2035 315 1699
Last week 159827 737859 8344 13166 3144 9069 39813 69301 4170 205441 2124 94464 3755 3009 6477 9366 73653 27624 32217 76247 15038 17391 7483 10400 1711 10125
Previous peak date04-0704-1203-2604-1507-2403-2810-2603-2704-0611-0204-0404-1204-21 --04-1004-1003-2403-31 --03-3104-0911-24 -- --03-2603-27
Previous peak daily increment 4730 54148 808 1470 238 278 12285 5664 316 21294 147 30360 86 106 1118 5636 1079 967 358 5046 240 1140
Low between peaks 425 3421 27 79 118 -1029 3593 318 19 6516 5 -1069 7 4 9 193 60 158 7 15

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed 2021-01-28

AustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-VTUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
Peak date (mm-dd)08-02 --2021-01-0306-062021-01-1609-15 --11-2812-112021-01-1508-1012-222021-01-0612-102021-01-0812-0512-292021-01-062021-01-0312-1611-18 --2021-01-1212-062021-01-022021-01-1408-2711-1212-0811-0612-0511-162021-01-0211-162021-01-022021-01-092021-01-1411-2711-1911-142021-01-0811-172021-01-0212-0911-2612-112021-01-1411-2012-092021-01-0812-082021-01-1011-2712-102021-01-1911-132021-01-022021-01-1411-142021-01-172021-01-1512-0610-192021-01-0111-19
Peak daily increment 483 9718 7349 16924 92139 13616 10409 4741 4292 27983 17325 720127 232179 695 3819 2716 8965 42315 4984 279 792 16654 8616 245 4362 1493 12560 6415 3244 3670 3407 5445 2919 567 7920 6763 5848 2726 1163 9144 2132 3072 793 5766 2333 2623 15487 17473 3733 1537 10174 4771 1362 8929 21598 2491 6644 162 3223 12345 1426 800
Days since peak 179 25 236 12 135 61 48 13 171 37 22 49 20 54 30 22 25 43 71 16 53 26 14 154 77 51 83 54 73 26 73 26 19 14 62 70 75 20 72 26 50 63 48 14 69 50 20 51 18 62 49 9 76 26 14 75 11 13 53 101 27 70
Last total 28799 9058687 770427 714143 2067575 10720048 1037993 1398841 1825519 1113970 519575 3752548 1437798 2457118 25766681 53647 452734 288009 743232 3273905 391661 247935 36132 76318 1684267 860722 25460 316065 161720 1116224 619995 274823 355868 394495 485602 348749 38453 580674 458178 434508 270476 92934 739465 97304 188219 63218 680111 168098 274951 1382767 883716 381341 140783 828632 431169 107795 677130 2330272 259760 493674 11515 306378 587580 118562 51430
Last daily increment 5 61811 4562 4255 12270 18855 13695 6527 18670 6731 1168 18856 7150 7279 168620 212 3648 1868 4671 23256 1441 1417 267 661 11417 7272 94 993 508 4184 2819 77 2934 2492 4201 2190 292 2209 1297 1928 1804 403 6468 144 806 698 4783 650 1078 13781 5432 2325 720 6050 3938 187 2041 21052 1309 5121 144 2538 1980 787 62
Last week 39 304767 28159 24077 80157 80364 72710 37989 93229 31063 9688 114686 45230 38646 920003 978 16647 9814 35192 126698 8688 10907 1227 3257 59955 39625 637 5375 2922 23004 14569 5915 15090 14652 20938 11834 2198 11356 6347 8874 9309 1885 34307 739 3321 3314 30940 3953 6739 73426 29734 15493 3944 30194 21981 1079 15022 102483 6763 29923 764 9563 9589 4947 847
Previous peak date03-2808-0405-03 -- -- -- --04-0110-0508-02 --05-0907-1604-14 -- --07-1604-2207-0407-2004-2404-2105-0110-0207-1711-03 --08-2709-0909-04 --04-30 --07-1904-1705-0605-2204-06 -- --07-24 -- -- --05-0105-0104-0807-2207-1904-0104-19 -- --04-0907-1608-2706-0211-01 --05-26 --07-18 --05-27 --
Previous peak daily increment 360 45272 1988 2860 22834 8380 10926 12481 4816 1851 153 3557 9151 729 948 190 409 11222 21992 1641 986 3933 303 2155 2171 1017 48 1624 1273 441 89 4272 286 1108 11248 1004 1624 1834 465 1079 26263 1076 847 51
Low between peaks 7 291 1048 4599 1264 4742 1435 -708 882 74 482 3180 179 31 126 2309 2470 721 283 1766 95 377 -21 361 15 153 463 142 19 115 95 298 584 386 422 764 232 468 9248 479 398 21

Confirmed count forecast Europe (bold red line in graphs) 2021-01-29 to 2021-02-04

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
2021-01-28 3743734 19217477 410230 702437 217574 273054 964660 2194562 197208 2705001 44039 3097374 154796 230978 363450 193645 2515507 966252 1496665 685383 721513 564557 163235 243427 62276 519404
2021-01-29 3772000 19412000 413200 704200 218200 276100 980000 2224000 197900 2734000 44110 3123000 155200 232100 365800 195300 2535000 974000 1511000 700200 726400 570000 165300 246700 62620 524000
2021-01-30 3799000 19504000 414500 706600 218400 277200 987000 2235000 198600 2736000 44480 3141000 155700 232700 366900 196700 2547000 979000 1518000 714600 728700 570000 166600 248200 62970 524000
2021-01-31 3826000 19579000 415500 708200 218400 278200 990000 2242000 199300 2736000 44720 3159000 156100 232900 367900 198200 2558000 983000 1524000 729200 730300 570000 167000 249600 63310 524000
2021-02-01 3852000 19707000 416500 709200 219100 279100 993000 2249000 200000 2822000 44890 3176000 156400 233000 368600 199700 2566000 987000 1529000 743700 731700 570000 167200 250200 63650 527600
2021-02-02 3879000 19835000 417900 710800 219900 280400 1000000 2261000 200700 2853000 45180 3193000 157200 233500 369100 201100 2576000 991000 1537000 758500 734400 573400 168900 251900 63980 529400
2021-02-03 3906000 19987000 419300 713800 220300 282700 1008000 2276000 201400 2895000 45650 3210000 157900 234200 369800 202600 2589000 995000 1545000 773500 737100 575600 170600 254200 64320 531300
2021-02-04 3933000 20115000 420800 716400 220800 284600 1015000 2290000 202000 2928000 46010 3227000 158500 234800 371300 204000 2602000 1000000 1551000 788900 739800 582300 172100 256100 64660 533300

Confirmed count forecast (bold red line in graphs) 2021-01-29 to 2021-02-04

DateBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-VTUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
2021-01-28 9058687 770427 714143 2067575 10720048 1037993 1398841 1825519 1113970 519575 3752548 1437798 2457118 25766681 53647 452734 288009 743232 3273905 391661 247935 36132 76318 1684267 860722 25460 316065 161720 1116224 619995 274823 355868 394495 485602 348749 38453 580674 458178 434508 270476 92934 739465 97304 188219 63218 680111 168098 274951 1382767 883716 381341 140783 828632 431169 107795 677130 2330272 259760 493674 11515 306378 587580 118562 51430
2021-01-29 9126000 773000 718200 2091000 10727000 1052000 1405000 1841000 1118000 521200 3773000 1449000 2465000 25921000 53830 457300 292000 749600 3292000 395900 251900 36360 76900 1695000 873600 25700 318400 163300 1121000 623900 279900 358800 399100 489700 350700 39510 585100 459400 436700 273000 93300 752000 97610 189800 63920 685200 168700 276200 1394000 889400 384100 141600 834200 438200 108400 680700 2362000 261200 499100 11660 307900 589600 119400 51650
2021-01-30 9189000 775600 722500 2106000 10740000 1065000 1411000 1861000 1122000 522800 3791000 1456000 2472000 26066000 54010 460400 293600 756100 3311000 398000 251900 36590 77490 1706000 881400 25810 319100 163800 1125000 627700 279900 361600 399100 493700 352600 39840 586700 460500 438700 274800 93650 760000 97710 190100 64610 690300 169200 277300 1403000 894900 386800 142300 839600 442900 108600 684200 2376000 262500 504400 11800 309400 591500 120300 51860
2021-01-31 9217000 778100 726600 2118000 10748000 1077000 1417000 1872000 1125000 524500 3809000 1459000 2480000 26212000 54190 461900 294500 762400 3329000 399600 251900 36810 78070 1717000 885500 25920 319300 163900 1130000 631400 279900 364400 402200 497700 354400 39890 586700 461700 440700 276000 93990 765900 97800 190500 65270 695300 169800 278400 1411000 900400 389400 143100 845100 447400 108800 687600 2384000 263900 509700 11930 311000 593500 121200 52080
2021-02-01 9242000 780500 730200 2130000 10753000 1087000 1422000 1880000 1129000 526000 3826000 1463000 2487000 26355000 54370 462800 295000 768700 3347000 401300 257100 37030 78640 1728000 889000 26020 320100 164200 1134000 635200 281800 367200 403800 501700 356200 40260 589200 462900 442700 277000 94340 769500 97870 191000 65930 700300 170300 279600 1418000 905800 392100 143800 850400 450100 108800 690900 2401000 265200 514800 12070 312600 595400 122000 52290
2021-02-02 9302000 783000 733200 2144000 10762000 1101000 1428000 1895000 1133000 527600 3843000 1472000 2494000 26497000 54550 465800 297300 775100 3365000 403300 258900 37250 79220 1738000 897100 26080 321200 165000 1139000 638900 281800 370000 406400 505700 358100 40850 591100 464000 444700 278500 94680 774200 97960 191400 66590 705300 170800 280700 1426000 911200 394800 144600 855700 452200 109000 694300 2421000 266500 520000 12210 314100 597300 122900 52500
2021-02-03 9365000 785500 736300 2158000 10770000 1114000 1434000 1913000 1137000 529200 3859000 1478000 2502000 26640000 54730 468500 298900 781500 3383000 405200 260900 37480 79810 1749000 902500 26140 322200 165500 1143000 642700 284800 372900 409500 509700 359900 41330 593000 465200 446700 280200 95020 779500 98080 192200 67250 710300 171400 281800 1432000 916600 397500 145400 861100 456000 109200 697700 2440000 267900 525200 12350 315700 599200 123800 52720
2021-02-04 9423000 788000 740300 2170000 10785000 1128000 1440000 1931000 1141000 530800 3877000 1485000 2509000 26783000 54910 471700 300900 788000 3401000 406600 262000 37700 80390 1760000 909600 26250 323200 166100 1147000 646400 284800 375700 412400 513700 361700 41750 595300 466300 448800 281800 95360 785700 98220 193000 67910 715300 171900 282900 1445000 922100 400100 146100 866500 460100 109400 701100 2461000 269200 530400 12490 317200 601100 124700 52940

Confirmed count average forecast Europe (bold black line in graphs) 2021-01-29 to 2021-02-04

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
2021-01-28 3743734 19217477 410230 702437 217574 273054 964660 2194562 197208 2705001 44039 3097374 154796 230978 363450 193645 2515507 966252 1496665 685383 721513 564557 163235 243427 62276 519404
2021-01-29 3770000 19333000 411800 704700 218100 274400 970000 2204000 198000 2744000 44390 3116000 155300 231500 364400 195000 2527000 970800 1502000 699800 724000 568300 164500 245200 62540 521000
2021-01-30 3794000 19396000 413100 706600 218300 275600 976000 2212000 198700 2765000 44660 3131000 155900 232000 365300 196200 2535000 975100 1507000 712600 726100 569800 165600 246600 62740 521400
2021-01-31 3817000 19447000 414100 708300 218500 276600 978000 2217000 199500 2785000 44850 3148000 156200 232400 366200 197400 2541000 979200 1511000 725600 727800 571100 166300 248100 62960 521700
2021-02-01 3840000 19520000 414900 709600 219000 277600 980000 2221000 200200 2848000 44990 3160000 156600 232600 366900 198500 2545000 982900 1514000 738700 729300 572400 166800 249000 63160 524000
2021-02-02 3862000 19592000 416200 711100 219600 278700 987000 2229000 201000 2882000 45160 3175000 157200 233100 367800 199700 2551000 986500 1518000 752000 731900 577200 168100 250800 63410 525400
2021-02-03 3886000 19675000 417700 713200 219900 281300 995000 2241000 201800 2917000 45420 3193000 157700 233800 368500 200900 2559000 990700 1524000 765700 734600 580100 169500 252900 63660 527100
2021-02-04 3910000 19754000 419400 715000 220200 283500 1001000 2250000 202500 2957000 45610 3207000 158200 234400 369900 202100 2566000 995300 1529000 779500 737000 584200 170800 254800 63870 528700

Confirmed count average forecast (bold black line in graphs) 2021-01-29 to 2021-02-04

DateBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-VTUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
2021-01-28 9058687 770427 714143 2067575 10720048 1037993 1398841 1825519 1113970 519575 3752548 1437798 2457118 25766681 53647 452734 288009 743232 3273905 391661 247935 36132 76318 1684267 860722 25460 316065 161720 1116224 619995 274823 355868 394495 485602 348749 38453 580674 458178 434508 270476 92934 739465 97304 188219 63218 680111 168098 274951 1382767 883716 381341 140783 828632 431169 107795 677130 2330272 259760 493674 11515 306378 587580 118562 51430
2021-01-29 9115000 774400 718800 2082000 10728000 1051000 1404000 1844000 1119000 521100 3767000 1445000 2464000 25916000 53810 455700 289700 749100 3290000 393300 249800 36360 76820 1694000 868000 25580 317000 162200 1121000 622300 277400 358300 396200 488700 350600 38950 582700 459200 436000 272300 93280 746400 97460 188900 63790 684800 168700 276100 1395000 887700 383600 141400 833600 435000 108000 679500 2346000 260900 498500 11650 307900 589100 119400 51560
2021-01-30 9174000 778500 723200 2096000 10736000 1063000 1409000 1862000 1123000 522500 3779000 1452000 2469000 26056000 53970 458300 291200 755900 3304000 394800 250800 36550 77380 1704000 875100 25690 317700 162700 1125000 624800 278100 361000 396500 491900 352500 39290 584100 460200 437200 274200 93600 754400 97550 189300 64450 690100 169300 277100 1406000 892400 386000 142200 838400 439500 108200 682500 2358000 262100 503100 11790 309000 590600 120200 51730
2021-01-31 9200000 782600 727300 2110000 10741000 1074000 1413000 1877000 1127000 523800 3789000 1459000 2475000 26170000 54130 459700 292200 762800 3317000 395800 251800 36750 77930 1714000 879500 25790 318000 163000 1128000 627200 278700 363400 398700 494900 354100 39480 584400 461200 438400 275600 93870 760000 97640 189800 65100 694900 169800 278100 1418000 896000 388400 142900 842900 443900 108300 685300 2364000 263300 507600 11930 310000 591700 121000 51930
2021-02-01 9222000 786500 731100 2124000 10745000 1083000 1417000 1889000 1130000 525100 3798000 1466000 2481000 26286000 54290 460700 292900 769700 3332000 396700 255400 36920 78490 1724000 883600 25890 318700 163400 1132000 629700 280600 365800 399800 497900 355400 39810 586600 462200 439600 276900 94120 762900 97710 190300 65760 699500 170200 278900 1429000 899700 390700 143500 847600 446800 108400 688000 2378000 264400 512000 12050 311300 592800 121800 52120
2021-02-02 9283000 790400 734300 2138000 10752000 1096000 1421000 1904000 1135000 526400 3806000 1472000 2486000 26412000 54450 463200 294800 776700 3346000 397900 257500 37130 79060 1734000 891500 25970 319600 164000 1135000 632000 281500 368400 402400 500900 356800 40320 588300 463200 440800 278500 94450 767300 97800 190800 66420 704400 170700 279900 1441000 903700 393100 144200 852400 449400 108500 690700 2396000 265600 516500 12180 312300 594200 122600 52320
2021-02-03 9342000 794300 737700 2153000 10759000 1108000 1424000 1920000 1138000 527700 3815000 1480000 2492000 26536000 54620 465400 296600 783700 3359000 399200 259700 37290 79620 1744000 897800 26060 320400 164700 1139000 634500 284000 371400 404800 503900 358200 40830 590600 464200 442000 280500 94790 773300 97920 191700 67090 709600 171200 280800 1452000 908100 395600 145000 857300 454000 108800 693500 2417000 266800 521000 12310 313300 595500 123400 52530
2021-02-04 9405000 798200 741900 2168000 10766000 1121000 1428000 1937000 1142000 528900 3825000 1488000 2498000 26667000 54780 467600 298500 790800 3373000 400500 261600 37470 80200 1754000 904900 26190 321400 165300 1144000 637300 284900 374100 407500 506800 359700 41370 592600 465300 443200 282500 95130 780400 98040 192500 67760 714600 171800 281700 1465000 912600 398000 145700 862300 458800 109000 697000 2437000 268000 525500 12450 314800 597100 124200 52730

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.
[2020-10-27]Statistical short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 Pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now published at the Journal of Clinical Immunology and Immunotherapy. open access
[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting. open access
[2020-10-10]Removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.
[2020-06-24] Research presentation on short-term COVID-19 forecasting on 26 June (14:00 UK time) at the Quarterly Forecasting Forum of the IIF UK Chapter.
[2020-06-06] Removed Brazil from yesterday's forecasts (only; last observation 2020-06-05).
[2020-06-04] Data issues with confirmed cases for France.
Added an appendix to the short term paper with further forecast comparisons for European and Latin American countries.
Both Sweden and Iran have lost their peak in confirmed cases. For Sweden the previous peak was on 24 April (daily peak of 656 cases), for Iran it was on 31 March (peak of 3116). For Iran this looks like a second wave, with increasing daily counts for the last four weeks. For Sweden this is a sudden jump in confirmed cases in the last two days, compared to a fairly steady weekly pattern over the previous six weeks.
[2020-05-20] Problem with UK confirmed cases: negative daily count. This makes the forecasts temporarily unreliable.
Updated the second paper.
[2020-05-18] Minor fixes to the improved version of scenario forecasting, backported to 2020-05-13.
[2020-05-13] We now omit countries with fewer than 200 confirmed cases in the last week (25 for deaths).
The short-term paper has some small updates, including further comparisons with other models.
Data for Ecuador are not reliable enough for forecasting.
Switched to an improved version of scenario forecasting.
[2020-05-06] The New York Times is in the process of redefining its US state data. Unfortunately, at the moment only the last observation has changed (e.g New York deaths jumped from 19645 on 2020-05-05 to 25956 a day later). This means the data is currently useless; however it does bring it close to the Johns Hopkins/CSSE count (25626 on 2020-05-06). The aggregate US count is based on JH/CSSE so unaffected. We now use Johns Hopkins/CSSE US state data, including all states with sufficient counts. So the new forecasts cannot be compared to those previously.
A minor change is that we show the graph without scenario forecast if no peak has been detected yet.
[2020-04-29] See our blog entry at the International Institute of Forecasters.
US history of death counts revised in Johns Hopkins/CSSE data.
UK death counts have been revised to include the deaths in care homes. In the Johns Hopkins/CSSE data set, which we use, the entire history has been revised. So forecasts made up to 2020-04-29 cannot be compared to later outcomes. In the ECDC data set only the last observation has changed, causing a jump in the series.
[2020-04-27] Our short-term COVID-19 forecasting paper is now available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06.
A small adjustment has been made to the scenario forecast methodology, and will be documented shortly.
[2020-04-24] A summary of our work on short-term COVID-19 forecasting appeared as a voxeu.
[2020-04-17] Bird and Nielsen look into nowcasting death counts in England.
[2020-04-16] Added scenario forecasts to all graphs now. This would now be the preferred forecast for most.
This is the first time with a peak in confirmed UK cases (also for deaths, but this is uncertain because it is at the same date).
[2020-04-10] Updated documentation with better description of short-term estimates and peak determination.
[2020-04-09] Added table with estimated peak dates (if happened) and dates to and since the peak. Note that this can be a local peak, and subsequent re-acceleration (or data revisions) can result in a new peak later.
[2020-04-08] Minor correction to peak estimates. Added table with scenario forecasts.
[2020-04-06] Added a post hoc estimate of the peak number of cases. This needs at least three confirmed observations (four for deaths) after the event. It is based on the averaged smooth trend, and can change later or be a local peak. It is marked with a vertical line with the date label, or a date with left arrow in the bottom left corner of the graph. This is backported to 2020-04-04.
[2020-04-02] Now including more US States, based on New York Times data.
[2020-03-31] Scenario forecasts, based on what happened in China earlier this year, are presented for several countries (line marked with x). Created more plausible 90% confidence bands (dotted line in same colour).
[2020-03-26] Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, only for Italy.
[2020-03-24] Our forecasts are starting to overestimate in some cases. This was always expected to happen when the increase starts to slow down. Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, but only for Italy and Spain sofar.

Initial visual evaluation of forecasts of Confirmed